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3 Remaining Needs: NL East

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There’s been no division in baseball more active than the National League East this offseason, as the Mets (Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Wilson Ramos), Phillies (Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen), Nationals (Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Yan Gomes, Kurt Suzuki) and Braves (Josh Donaldson, Brian McCann) have each made multiple additions with an eye toward contending in 2019. That said, with the New Year fast approaching, each of those teams — and the cellar-dwelling Marlins — still have work to do and various needs to address. Here’s a look at what work remains to be done in one of the game’s most competitive divisions (teams listed in order of 2018 standings)…

Atlanta Braves

  • Add a starter to the top half of the rotation. Mike Foltynewicz had a breakout season in 2018, while Sean Newcomb showed plenty of potential. The July addition of Kevin Gausman gave Atlanta another quality mid-rotation option, they’ve also lost arguably their most effective (and certainly their most surprising) rotation member in Sanchez, who has agreed to terms with the division-rival Nats. The Braves aren’t lacking on intriguing options to round out the rotation (e.g. Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, Kolby Allard, Max Fried, Mike Sorokia, Kyle Wright), but there’s a clear lack of an established top-of-the-rotation arm.
  • Address the vacancy in right field. Nick Markakis is a free agent and wasn’t able to sustain the eye-opening power surge he displayed through the season’s first six weeks. The venerable 35-year-old would be a fine option to return and man the position even if he shouldn’t be expected to repeat his 2018 numbers. The recent contracts for Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley subtracted two quality options from the open market, leaving top free agent Bryce Harper and a host of part-time veterans (e.g. Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez) as open-market alternatives.
  • Bolster the bullpen. Arodys Vizcaino currently slots in as the projected closer, with A.J. Minter and Dan Winkler among the intriguing younger options. Veterans Darren O’Day and Jonny Venters bring plenty of talent but plenty of injury risk. Many of the young starters who don’t land in the rotation could be ’pen options, as well, but there are obvious opportunities for a veteran arm to solidify the relief corps.

Washington Nationals

  • Solidify second base. Howie Kendrick and Wilmer Difo are the Nationals’ top two options at present, but the former is coming off a season mostly lost to a ruptured Achilles tendon while the latter has yet to prove he can hit Major League pitching. Short-term veterans like Brian Dozier and Josh Harrison could serve as a bridge to top prospect Carter Kieboom, who could very well be the Nats’ long-term option there.
  • Explore options for the fifth spot in the rotation. Adding a fifth starter isn’t necessarily an imperative for the Nationals, but a veteran to push Joe Ross and Erick Fedde for that slot could prove prudent — especially with Ross entering his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Starting pitching is a clear strength, but the Nationals’ upper-level options in Triple-A are largely underwhelming, which makes a veteran addition, even on a minor league deal, all the more logical.
  • Continue to monitor Bryce Harper’s market. It’s quite possible that Harper’s time in D.C. is legitimately over, especially considering the fact that he rejected a 10-year extension offer worth a reported $300MM in late September. But if Harper’s market doesn’t develop as strongly as agent Scott Boras hopes, the Nats should be looming on the periphery of the market to see if there’s a possible compromise to be had with their longtime star.

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Acquire an impact bat. Wise or not, the Phillies set their fans’ expectations as high as possible when owner John Middleton said earlier this offseason that he could get “a little stupid” with the money that he spent in free agency this winter. Philly has been connected to Harper and Manny Machado for so long, that some fans will consider it an outright failure if at least one of the two isn’t in manager Gabe Kapler’s Opening Day lineup.
  • Upgrade the middle of the rotation. Of course, even if Bryce and Manny end up elsewhere, the Phils could still craft a winning path. Beyond pursuing any and all creative options that can be placed on the table, Matt Klentak and company would do well to bolster an already solid rotation. While it was generally an area of strength in 2018, and could be again without modification, the rotation is also an obvious place for the Phillies to slot in a significant (or even blockbuster) addition. Opportunity remains in both trade and free agency. If an acquisition results in a hurler such as Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, or the rehabbing Jerad Eickhoff being knocked into the bullpen for some or all of the season, well, that’s a nice luxury to have.
  • Add to the back end of the bullpen. The Phils have some interesting youthful power arms along with a few respected veterans in their current bullpen mix, but it’s far from a standout group on the whole. Given the whispers regarding the team’s willingness to part with Tommy Hunter and/or Pat Neshek, it does not seem as if the front office is entirely satisfied with the current unit, either. This is one of a few clubs that could easily afford to splurge on Craig Kimbrel, not that we’ve seen any real indication of a connection. A variety of other notable relief targets are still floating around the market as well.

New York Mets

  • Figure out who’s playing center field. On paper, it’s possible to imagine a situation where Michael Conforto or Brandon Nimmo shares time in center with the right-handed-hitting Juan Lagares. And the Mets have already added center-field-capable veterans Rajai Davis and Gregor Blanco on minors pacts, perhaps hinting that they’ll be looking for a budget reserve piece to help keep up appearances while Yoenis Cespedes works back to health. But these are really half-measures, and the Brodie Van Wagenen-led Mets have set their sights on more than mediocrity. Will the team really fall back on Lagares in a significant role? Or is there another move yet to come? There were plenty of rumors about A.J. Pollock, who’d certainly fill the need, but Van Wagenen has also hinted the team may not put big money on the free agent table after already adding a few reasonably expensive pieces.
  • Improve the bench/pen depth. When you’re trying to take a team from 77 to 90+ wins in a competitive division, every little bit counts. If another more significant addition isn’t to be made, then perhaps the way to get better is to add a few lower-priced assets that can add major value in part-time roles. At present, the position-player reserve competition is set to include players such as T.J. Rivera, Dominic Smith, Gavin Cecchini, Luis Guillorme, and Dilson Herrera along with Davis and Blanco. Meanwhile, relievers battling for MLB spots include Drew Smith, Tim Peterson, Corey Oswalt, Chris Flexen, Paul Sewald, Jacob Rhame, Bobby Wahl, Kyle Dowdy, and Daniel Zamora. Put it all together and … there’s not a lot in the way of established MLB performance in those areas.
  • Trade Travis d’Arnaud or Kevin Plawecki. Re-shuffling things a bit might help the Mets make better use of resources. Having decided to go with Wilson Ramos behind the dish, the club seems to have one MLB catcher too many, particularly with Tomas Nido also available (with options) on the 40-man. A deal of either d’Arnaud or Plawecki seems all but certain. Turning one of those players into a decent reliever or worthwhile prospect would be a nice outcome.

Miami Marlins

  • Find a trade partner for J.T. Realmuto. Last winter, the Fish played coy on Christian Yelich but ultimately dealt him.They nevertheless held Realmuto — a decision that actually seems to have worked out. While he’s now just two years from free agency, Realmuto also firmly established himself as the game’s best overall catcher in the interim. Now, we’re seeing more talk about hanging onto him entering another rebuilding season. That seems only to be cover, though, because the risks greatly outweigh the upside (if any) in holding on to Realmuto to open the season. Several suitors have moved on, but others remain. The Marlins ought to pick the best bid in the coming weeks.
  • Acquire veteran outfield depth. This version of the Marlins is obviously going to be young and inexperienced. But that doesn’t mean that Derek Jeter and co. are interested in a re-boot of the Major League series set in South Beach. The new regime has spoken about the need for winning mentalities and the like. Meanwhile, it has a variety of talented young outfielders who’ll need time to finish their development and guidance in making the leap to the game’s top level. Last year, the Fish secured the services of Cameron Maybin. It seems a similar move would again be wise.
  • Be opportunistic on relievers late in the offseason. It’s never wise for a losing team to blow money on relief pitching. On the other hand, value bets in the bullpen are quite a nice strategy for a rebuilding organization. For one thing, a decent pen helps the club avoid depressing, late-game losses. For another, it is an easy and cheap avenue for infusing some of that ever-loved veteran presence into a locker room. And every contender in baseball will be looking for reliever reinforcements this summer, so it’s always nice to have a stock of potential trade chips on hand. Landing a few interesting arms shouldn’t be too hard to pull off. The Marlins have plenty of opportunities to offer up (including late-inning roles, potentially) and can use that, moreso than money, to lure a few hurlers who otherwise have slipped through the cracks.

Quick Hits: Acuna, Taylor, Rogers

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Ronald Acuna was the most-anticipated Braves prospect in decades, and in spite of the extreme hype, he managed to not only meet expectations, but surpass them in most cases. David O’Brien of The Athletic details an oral history in celebration of what’s known as the Year of Acuna. The phenom hit .293/.366/.552 en route to a 3.7 fWAR season that won him the NL Rookie of the Year award, and became the youngest player in history to hit a grand slam in the postseason. Because he opened the year in the minors, Braves fans will have the privilege of watching Acuna play in Atlanta for at least six more seasons.

A pair of other small items…

  • Although Nationals outfielder Michael A. Taylor struggled mightily at the end of the 2018 season, the club is hopeful that he’ll be able to revert to the promise he showed in a 3.1 fWAR 2017 campaign. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post details the storyline as it stands, including a few poignant quotes from GM Mike Rizzo. “If he figures out the contact portion of it a little bit better, you are talking about a guy that could have five tools,” he explained. “He’s had flashes of it in the past and he just needs to be more consistent in his approach at the plate, because the kid’s a really good player.” While Taylor did indeed show a lot of talent in 2017, it’s well-worth noting that the biggest difference between that and his 2018 performance was a 43-point difference in BABIP. Still, Taylor’s power numbers inexplicably plummeted last season as well, leaving room for optimism in regards to a potential rebound.
  • Jake Rogers is still the Tigers’ catcher of the future, Anthony Fenech writes in a piece for Baseball America, but he’ll have to do better than the .219/.305/.412 batting line he posted across 408 plate appearances at Double-A Erie this past season. According to GM Al Avila, Rogers is likely to begin the 2019 season at that same level. “Depending on how spring training goes, we’ll make a decision there,” he said at the winter meetings. “But I would say we’re kind of leaning towards (Erie), just for his own good.” The Tigers would “like to see him improve upon the offense” before giving him a promotion to the minors’ highest level. Vice President of Player Personnel Dave Littlefield offered something in the way of optimism regarding Rogers’ capabilities, expressing “no doubt” that he’ll be able to make the necessary adjustments in his swing, adding that he improved late in the year with some minor tweaks. Rogers was taken in third round of the 2016 draft, and currently ranks 12th among Detroit’s prospects.

Nationals Have Shown Interest In Brian Dozier, Wade Miley

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The Nationals have expressed interest in free-agent second baseman Brian Dozier, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. They’ve also shown recent interest in free-agent left-hander Wade Miley, Dougherty adds, backing up an earlier report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Dozier joins the previously reported DJ LeMahieu and Josh Harrison as free agents who have been on the radar of the second base-needy Nationals this winter. However, Dougherty casts doubt on the possibility of Washington reeling in LeMahieu, who figures to receive the richest contract among the three. Regardless, with only Howie Kendrick – who’s coming off a ruptured Achilles – and the light-hitting Wilmer Difo as experienced options at the keystone, the Nationals may well attempt to upgrade there before the 2019 campaign begins.

At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Dozier would head to D.C. on a one-year, $10MM accord. Had he reached free agency a year ago, though, it’s likely Dozier would have landed a much more lucrative payday. Dozier was then coming off a five-year stretch with the Twins in which he racked up 21.7 fWAR (17th among position players) and 145 home runs (13th). Along the way, he authored a pair of the most powerful years in the history of second basemen – the 2016-17 campaigns, during which he combined for 76 homers (including 42, an American League record for his position, in ’16).

Dozier’s stock was certainly high 12 months ago, but it may now be at a nadir relative to the rest of his career. As a member of the Twins and Dodgers last season, Dozier did mash another 21 HRs and steal 12 of 15 bases in 2018, giving him five consecutive campaigns with 20-plus long balls and six straight with double-digit stolen bags. However, across 632 plate appearances, the 31-year-old only managed a .215/.305/.391 line – good for a 90 wRC+, the worst full-season mark of his career – and his lowest ISO (.175) since 2014. Statcast suggests Dozier didn’t deserve better than his offensive production, as his paltry expected weighted on-base average (.288) actually fell short of his real wOBA (.304). Dozier also earned negative marks in the field, with minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-6.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. In all, the 2018 version of Dozier was worth less than a win above replacement at FanGraphs.

While Dozier’s on the market at a less-than-ideal time, the opposite may be true of Miley. After settling for a minor league pact with the Brewers last year, the former innings eater rebuilt his stock to a degree by notching a 2.57 ERA/3.59 FIP and a 52.8 percent groundball rate over 80 2/3 frames with the World Series contenders. The 32-year-old Miley’s success came in spite of subpar strikeout and walk rates (5.58 K/9, 3.01 BB/9) and an unsustainable home run-to-fly ball percentage (5.2), which could dampen enthusiasm about his future. Nevertheless, MLBTR estimates he’ll sign for two years and $12MM – a nice guarantee considering where his stock was a year ago.

Whether Miley will get his next contract from the Nationals is questionable at best, of course. They had interest in Miley between trading Tanner Roark to Cincinnati on Dec. 13 and signing Anibal Sanchez on Dec. 20, per Dougherty. While Dougherty doesn’t rule out a Miley signing, the Nats’ rotation may be set with Sanchez slotting in behind the all-world trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin and likely in front of either Joe Ross or Erick Fedde.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/21/18

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Here are the day’s minor moves:

  • The Phillies have a host of new additions to the team’s list of MLB Spring Training participants. In addition to a few we’ve already featured here at MLBTR, the Philadelphia club has announced the signings of southpaw Jeremy Bleich, backstop Rob Brantly, righty Josh Martin, utilityman Matt McBride, and infielder Gregorio Petit. Every one of these players has seen MLB time except for Martin, who’ll be looking for his first crack at the bigs after compiling a seven-season minor-league stat line with the Indians organization that features a 3.33 ERA and 9.2 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9.
  • Likewise, the Padres have announced a haul of camp competitors. Allen Craig will come back for another go, as will Alex Dickerson. Otherwise, southpaws Ryan Bollinger and Dietrich Enns have inked with the San Diego org, along with righty Tyler Higgins. On the position-player side, infielders Seth Mejias-Brean and Aderlin Rodriguez are joined by outfielder Jacob Scavuzzo. It’s the opposite situation from the one just discussed above, as all of the new additions excepting Enns — who’s compiled two MLB appearances — have yet to crack the majors.
  • A handful of new free agents are heading to the Rangers, too, per a club announcement. Lefty Jack Leathersich has seen action in a pair of MLB campaigns, but won’t get a camp invite. Fellow southpaw Miguel Del Pozo, righties, Ariel Hernandez and Phillips Valdez, and infielder Nolan Fontana will open their tenure in Texas on the MLB side of Spring Training. Hernandez and Fontana each have minimal experience in the bigs. Valdez worked to a 2.73 ERA in 135 upper-minors innings with the Nationals organization last year, with 6.9 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9; Del Pozo has averaged ten strikeouts per nine in his minor-league career.
  • The Red Sox have added another hurler on a minor-league pact, this time picking up righty Ryan Weber, per Michael Mayer of Metsmerizedonline.com (via Twitter). Now 28 years of age, Weber has thrown 73 2/3 innings of 5.01 ERA ball over the past four years, though the vast majority of those came in 2015 and 2016. He was rather effective last year at Triple-A in a swingman capacity, spinning 115 1/3 innings of 2.73 ERA ball with 6.5 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9.

NL Notes: Reds, Anibal, Nats, Tulo, Darvish

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The Reds were keen on retaining Matt Harvey entering the offseason and held talks with him right up until he agreed to join the Angels on a one-year deal yesterday, Cincinnati GM Nick Krall tells Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter links). However, the Reds simply weren’t comfortable matching the $11MM guarantee promised by the Halos. That said, Krall made clear that the Reds still hope to add another starting pitcher, be it via free agency or trade, and the GM also added that his club is pursuing another outfielder and some bullpen help. “We need to improve this club, and we know that,” said Krall, whose largest offseason move to date has been acquiring Tanner Roark. While the durable Roark certainly helps to shore up the back of the Reds’ rotation, there’s still plenty of question marks in the mix of in-house rotation options.

A few notes from around the National League on a quiet Wednesday evening…

  • The Nationals have had “ongoing conversations” with Anibal Sanchez’s agent, Gene Mato, since the Winter Meetings, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. That said, there are still multiple teams interested in Sanchez, who enjoyed a career renaissance with the Braves in 2018, as he pitched to a 2.83 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate. There’s no shortage of skeptics with regard to Sanchez’s resurgence, though the substantial increase in his usage of a cut-fastball and the fact that he allowed less hard contact than any qualified pitcher in baseball last season (per Statcast) should pique the interest of some clubs. Mato told MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes last week that teams interested in Sanchez “realize it wasn’t luck” that fueled his 2018 rebound.
  • Robert Murray of The Athletic writes that the Brewers sent three representatives to watch Troy Tulowitzki’s audition for MLB clubs yesterday (subscription required). Murray spoke to multiple scouts in attendance who had positive things to say about how Tulo looked on that given day, though obviously the primary question isn’t whether the 34-year-old is healthy right now, but whether he’ll be able to hold up over the course of a full season. The Brewers could utilize Tulowitzki at either third base or second base, with Travis Shaw manning the other spot. Given Shaw’s experience (and proficiency) at the hot corner, second base would be Tulowitzki’s likeliest position in Milwaukee. There were at least 11 other clubs on hand at yesterday’s showcase, however, so Milwaukee is but one of many possible landing spots for the former Rockies star. Any team that signs Tulowitzki would only owe him the league minimum of $555K in 2019.
  • Cubs right-hander Yu Darvish went through his second day of a throwing program as he works his way back from an arthroscopic debridement procedure in his right elbow (Instagram link). The Chicago organization said at the time Darvish’s surgery was announced that the right-hander is expected to be ready for Spring Training 2019, and the fact that he’s throwing in mid-December is an encouraging sign in that regard. Injuries limited Darvish to just 40 innings with the Cubs in a disappointing first season with the team. The six-year, $126MM contract for Darvish looks all the more problematic for the Cubs in light of reports that the team has extremely limited financial resources at its disposal this offseason. The fact that the Cubs spent a combined $186MM on Darvish, Tyler Chatwood and Brandon Morrow last winter, then acquired the second season of Brandon Kintlzer’s contract at the deadline this summer, only to now be handcuffed by payroll issues is undoubtedly a bitter pill for Cubs fans to swallow.

Nationals Sign Matt Adams

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DECEMBER 18: The Nats have announced the signing.

DECEMBER 15, 3:38 PM: The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty tweets that Adams will earn $3MM in 2019, and he’s also guaranteed a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for the 2020 season.

3:18 PM: Free agent first baseman/outfielder Matt Adams has agreed to a one-year, $4MM deal (contract details via Yahoo’s Jeff Passan) with Washington, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Per Rosenthal, the deal is pending a physical.

Matt Adams | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Adams, 30, was excellent in 277 plate appearances for the Nationals last seasons, slashing .257/.332/.510 (123 wRC+) before moving back to St. Louis on a late-August waiver claim. Despite poor numbers in a minuscule sample upon returning to the Cardinals, a slimmed-down Adams posted his highest hard-hit rate (39.1%) since the 2014 campaign, and displayed, for the first time, an ability to adequately handle a corner-outfield spot, earning decent DRS marks after a dreadful initiation to the spots in 2017.

Adams, though, has long been a near-automatic out against left-handed pitching (career .208/.238/.358 batting line, 59 wRC+), and did little to dismiss the notion in 32 plate appearances versus lefties in 2018. Still, he’s a solid bench option for a team in dire need of upper-level offensive depth, and should be an adequate replacement for an aging Ryan Zimmerman or the injury-prone Adam Eaton, should either fall prey to the DL and/or bouts of ineffectiveness.

The Slippery Rock University product made his MLB debut in 2012 with St. Louis after systematically annihilating minor-league pitching from 2009-12. His rookie season in 2013 was arguably his best, as the then-24-year-old joined a host of lineup-mates in demolishing NL pitching (his 135 wRC+ was third-best on the team) en route to the team’s second pennant in three seasons. Sharp decline followed, though, and an undiscerning eye (5.0 BB% from ’14-’15) relegated the 23rd-round pick to extreme part-time duty.

An increased, 7.6 BB% allowed for a slight rebound in Adams’ 2016 performance, before the slugger dropped 30 pounds and vowed to improve his versatility. There’s hope for more, too: Adams’ 107 wRC+ last season was suppressed by a career-low .245 average on balls in play, with his second-St. Louis-stint results (.167 BABIP in 60 PA despite a 56% hard-hit rate) being an obvious anomaly.

Free Agent Rumors: Harrison, Kimbrel, Norris, Angels

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The Nationals have had a pair of “brief” meetings with Josh Harrison’s representatives at MSM Sports, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. While there’s mutual interest, Dougherty reports that Harrison’s camp is also looking “closely” at other landing spots as well. Whether that’s due to what the Nats would be willing to offer, how they’d plan to use Harrison or another factor remains to be seen. The Nats have some uncertainty at second base, where Wilmer Difo and Howie Kendrick (who missed most of 2018 due to a ruptured Achilles) currently sit atop the depth chart. Top prospect Carter Kieboom may not be far from the big leagues, but adding a stable short-term option still makes plenty of sense for Washington. The Nats have been connected to Harrison several times over the past couple of weeks, but the versatile 31-year-old surely has other teams interested in his services. He’s been tied to the Yankees and Reds at various points this winter.

A few more notes on the free-agent market…

  • Craig Kimbrel’s lofty asking price — a reported six years and $100MM — and the lack of big-market clubs currently willing to spend on a late-inning reliever could present the right-hander with a difficult market this winter, Buster Olney of ESPN.com writes. Olney likens the situation to last year’s tepid market for J.D. Martinez — a similarly elite player for his position (designated hitter) who lingered on the open market until landing in Boston in late February — a match that long seemed inevitable. The Red Sox may be the best bet for Kimbrel, too, Olney opines, especially given the plethora of more affordable options for smaller and mid-market clubs to pursue even if they do want to bolster the back end of their bullpens.
  • The Marlins are one of several teams that has reached out to free-agent right-hander Bud Norris, tweets Craig Mish of SiriusXM. Miami has thinned out its bullpen this offseason by trading Kyle Barraclough (to Washington), and there’s a definitive lack of experienced arms at the back end of the organization’s bullpen. At present, Drew Steckenrider is the presumptive favorite to close games for skipper Don Mattingly, although the right-hander struggled down the stretch in 2019. Even as the Marlins rebuild the organization, there’s still an obvious opportunity to add some low-cost bullpen options to help take the stress off younger arms and, potentially, to be traded for further minor league talent down the line. The 33-year-old Norris has a 3.91 ERA with 10.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 47 saves over the past two seasons — the most recent of which was spent with the Cardinals.
  • The Angels’ best offer to J.A. Happ topped out at two years and a total of $28MM, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). That checks in $6MM shy of the two-year total that Happ received to return to the Yankees, so it’s hardly surprising that Happ opted for the familiarity of an organization he already knew and a greater guarantee. Both offers contained vesting options, Fletcher notes. With Happ, Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn all off the board, the Halos have begun to see some of their free-agent options dwindle. Dallas Keuchel and Yusei Kikuchi are the top two starters from MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list remaining, though as can be seen in our Free Agent Tracker, there are plenty of available options beyond that pairing. And, of course, the trade market will offer various options for the Angels, whose rejuvenated farm system should appeal to many clubs with pitching to spare.

Indians Acquire Andruw Monasterio From Nationals To Complete Yan Gomes Trade

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The Indians announced today that they’ve acquired minor league infielder Andruw Monasterio as the player to be named later in last month’s Yan Gomes trade.

It’s the second trade of the past four months for Monasterio, whom the Nationals acquired in the August trade that sent Daniel Murphy to the Cubs. The 21-year-old Monasterio’s stay with the Nationals organization will go down as a brief but productive one, as he hit .308/.404/.359 in a tiny sample of 47 plate appearances with Washington’s Class-A Advanced affiliate. On the season as a whole, Monasterio batted .267/.363/.338 with three homers, 14 doubles, three triples and a dozen steals through 483 plate appearances against generally older and more experienced competition in the Class-A Advanced Carolina League.

Monasterio not only split the 2018 season between the Cubs and Nationals organizations but also split his time on the field between second base (645 innings) and shortstop (236 innings). At the time of the Murphy trade, Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote that Monasterio’s size made his likeliest outcome that of a utility/bench piece, though he also praised the Venezuela native’s above-average speed and arm strength while noting he has the hands and feet to play basically anywhere on the infield. Monasterio did walk at better than an eight percent clip in A-ball in 2017 and walked in more than 12 percent of his PAs in High-A in 2018, so there’s certainly some elements of his game about which to be optimistic.

Monasterio joins outfielder Daniel Johnson and right-hander Jefry Rodriguez in comprising the entirety of the Indians’ return for Gomes, who will be under control for the next three seasons in Washington.

Red Sox, Nationals Only Two Teams To Exceed 2018 Luxury Tax Threshold

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TODAY: The final totals are in, as The Associated Press reports that the Red Sox will owe $11,951,091 in luxury tax payments, while the Nationals owe $2,386,097.  Boston will also lose ten spots in draft position, dropping from its original 33rd overall spot in the first round.

NOVEMBER 4: As was widely expected, the Red Sox and Nationals were the only two clubs who exceeded the $197MM luxury tax threshold this season, as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi confirmed (Twitter link) earlier this week.  The exact figures aren’t known, though as per the luxury tax calculations on Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Boston surpassed the threshold by slightly beyond $40.85MM, while Washington was just under $6.3MM beyond the tax line.  As a reminder, a team’s normal payroll is just pure dollars spent on player salaries in a season, whereas the payroll as calculated for Competitive Balance Tax purposes consists of the average annual value of player contracts, bonuses, and other expenses.

This is the second straight year that the Nats passed the luxury tax threshold, so their tax bill will consist of 30 percent of every dollar spent in overage (so around $1.89MM).  After exceeding the threshold in 2015 and 2016, the Red Sox ducked under the CBT line in the 2017-18 offseason to “reset their clock,” so they’ll be taxed at the first-timer rate of 20 percent of every dollar spent in overage.  By Cot’s numbers, however, the Red Sox surpassed the threshold by more than $40MM, so they’ll face a 62.5 percent surcharge on the overage.

This would work out to roughly $25.53MM in luxury tax payments and, perhaps more importantly, Boston’s top pick in next year’s amateur draft (currently the 33rd overall selection) would drop by 10 spots.  Since the Sox are so close to that $40MM figure, it’s possible there could be some other calculation or unknown payroll factor that got the club under the $237MM mark — we won’t know for certain about the draft pick or the final Competitive Balance Tax bill until the league makes an official announcement.  Had Boston stayed within the $20MM-$40MM range for payroll overage, they would have faced only a 12 percent extra in tax on top of their 20 percent first-timer percentage, putting them on the hook for approximately $12.672MM in luxury tax payments.

The Giants were right up against the $197MM line seemingly all season long, though by Cot’s calculations, they squeaked under the threshold by less than $1.6MM, thus avoiding their fourth straight year of tax payments.  San Francisco was very careful in trying to stay under the $197MM payroll line after a busy offseason, as the team made a pure salary dump of a trade with the Rangers in July to unload Austin Jackson and Cory Gearrin’s contracts, and also traded Andrew McCutchen to the Yankees on August 31 once they were fully out of contention.

The Competitive Balance Tax was a major subplot of the 2017-18 offseason, as one of the reasons behind the unprecedented lack of free agent activity was the fact that big spenders like the Giants, Yankees, and Dodgers all kept their spending in check (at least by their standards) in an effort to stay under the threshold.  For New York, this marks the first time since the luxury tax system was instituted in 2003 that the team will avoid making payments — the Yankees paid a whopping $319.6MM in total luxury tax payments from 2003-17.  The Dodgers have exceeded the threshold every season since 2013, as the Guggenheim Baseball Management ownership group made an initial big spending splash to bring the club back into relevance, though the Dodgers always stressed that they would eventually take a more measured approach to payroll.

The expectation was that, once these teams reset their spending clocks, it would open the floodgates for increased spending in a 2018-19 free agent market that has two players (Bryce Harper, Manny Machado) in line for record-setting contracts.  Those two superstars plus many other available big names like Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Yasmani Grandal, Craig Kimbrel, Josh Donaldson, Nathan Eovaldi, and many others makes this winter a particularly important time to have as much salary flexibility as possible.

Any team who exceeds the luxury tax threshold in three or more consecutive years must pay a 50 percent tax on the overage, so getting under the line carries some noteworthy savings.  Plus, as per the terms of the Collective Bargaining Agreement that came into play for the 2017 season, a team that surpasses the $40MM overage figure (as it appears Boston has done) faces as much as a 90 percent tax on the overage, plus that 10-slot drop for their top pick in the amateur draft.

Those stiffer penalties surely also contributed to the Yankees, Dodgers, and Giants’ decisions, though it should be noted that the actual dollars paid in tax penalties aren’t overly pricey for such wealthy franchises.  While big spending is certainly no guarantee of success on the field, it usually does provide some level of competitive advantage — for instance, nobody in Boston’s organization is sweating that tax payment in the wake of a World Series championship, no matter if the final bill ends up at $12.672MM or $25.53MM.  (Even dropping from the 33rd to the 43rd overall pick is a pretty light penalty.)  As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has written in the past, some “large market teams are treating the CBT thresholds as lines they absolutely cannot cross,” perhaps as an overall excuse to curb spending.  Only eight teams total have ever made tax payments, with two of those clubs — the 2004 Angels and 2016 Cubs — doing so only once.  Teams will have even more room to spend in 2019, as the luxury tax threshold is jumping up to $206MM.

In paying the tax in 2018, the Red Sox and Nationals will each face added penalties for pursuing free agents who were issued qualifying offers, and will receive limited compensation if their own QO free agent (Kimbrel for the Sox, Harper for the Nats) leaves.  If Boston or Washington signs a player who rejected the QO from his former team, the Sox/Nats would have to give up $1MM in international signing bonus pool money as well as their second-highest and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft.  Should Kimbrel and Harper reject their qualifying offers and sign elsewhere, the Sox and Nationals would only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round of the draft.

NL Rumors: Realmuto, Braves, Bucs, Galvis, Padres, Pirela, Nats

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Here’s the latest from the National League:

  • Not only are the Braves one of the teams still in the hunt to acquire Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, but they’re “slight” favorites as of now, Craig Mish of SiriusXM tweets. Braves third base prospect Austin Riley’s “on the table” in talks, Mish adds. The 21-year-old Riley – MLB.com’s 43rd-ranked prospect – got his first taste of Triple-A action in 2018 and batted a terrific .282/.346/.464 in 324 plate appearances, though he also struck out in nearly 30 percent of trips. Riley is blocked at third in Atlanta, at least temporarily, by the recently signed Josh Donaldson and 2018 starter Johan Camargo.
  • The Pirates have “big interest” in free-agent shortstop Freddy Galvis, according to George A. King III of the New York Post. In Pittsburgh, the switch-hitting 29-year-old would take over for Jordy Mercer, who signed with the Tigers earlier this week. Joining the Pirates would also mean a return to Pennsylvania for Galvis, a Phillie from 2012-17 who spent last season in San Diego. Across 3,096 major plate appearances, Galvis has batted .248/.299/.380 with 65 home runs, including 13 in 2018.
  • Once the Padres’ signing of Ian Kinsler becomes official, they’re “likely” to designate infielder/outfielder Jose Pirela for assignment, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. Even if the Padres don’t designate Pirela, he’s not long for their roster, Cassavell suggests. The 29-year-old Pirela, a member of the San Diego organization since it acquired him from the Yankees in 2015, racked up 817 PAs at the major league level from 2017-18 and managed a respectable .265/.320/.405 line with 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases.
  • While free-agent second baseman DJ LeMahieu has been on the Nationals’ radar, they’re “more likely” to look for a cheaper infielder, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post, who lists Brian Dozier, Josh Harrison and Jed Lowrie as speculative fits. Although, in MLBTR’s estimation, Lowrie will easily land the richest contract of that quartet this offseason.
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