Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Nationals Rumors

Nationals Acquire Yan Gomes

By | at

The Nationals have officially swung a deal with the Indians to bring in catcher Yan Gomes. Outfielder Daniel Johnson, righty Jefry Rodriguez, and a player to be named later will go to Cleveland in the swap.

With this swap in the books, the Nats have done all their work behind the dish at the very outset of the offseason. The organization already brought back old friend Kurt Suzuki, who’ll presumably share time with Gomes. The former is earning $10MM over two years, while the latter will take home a $7MM salary in 2019 before a pair of club options ($9MM and $11MM, each with $1MM buyouts).

The Gomes contract initially looked to be a coup for the Indians club, then took on a sour note as his offensive numbers plummeted. Last year, though, the 31-year-old bounced back with a strong campaign in which he slashed .266/.313/.449 and hit 16 long balls over 435 plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder what to expect moving forward. Gomes has good power for a catcher, but doesn’t typically draw many walks. Accordingly, his OBP has bounced up and down with his batting average on balls in play. Gomes did turn in a personal-best 38.7% hard-hit rate (by measure of Statcast) along with a .322 xwOBA that nearly matched his .326 wOBA in 2018, but odds are the Nats have tempered expectations on the offensive side.

Even if he falls back somewhat with the bat, though, Gomes is also regarded as a high-quality defender. Baseball Prospectus has generally graded him as a strong positive in all the measurable areas — framing, throwing, blocking. That presents an opposing skillset from that currently possessed by Suzuki, who has turned himself into an excellent hitter but doesn’t defend with such aplomb. Presumably, the Nats will utilize both according to need, while hoping the timeshare keeps them fresh, though obviously in-game situational substitutions won’t really be possible unless the club somehow finagles a way to carry a third catcher.

Regardless of how one looks at it, the two players combine to make a strong upgrade behind the dish for the Nats, who had relied upon Matt Wieters, Pedro Severino, and Spencer Kieboom over the past two seasons. The latter two players remain in the organization, though it stands to reason that one (likely the out-of-options Severino) will be jettisoned at some point, particularly with Raudy Read also taking a 40-man spot.

The Indians surely would have a stronger roster with Gomes on it. But they’re also willing to roll the dice a bit. The need for some budgetary flexibility is obviously a big part of the picture, but the organization obviously also believes in some rising players. In this case, Roberto Perez will presumptively take the bulk of the action behind the dish, with newcomer Eric Haase joining him after spending the past three seasons in the upper minors — where he has shown plenty of power but also a questionable on-base profile.

Certainly, the prospect return is a factor here as well. Johnson, a fifth-round pick in 2016, has an intriguing blend of power and speed, making him a top-ten organizational prospect for the Nats. The 23-year-old most recently scuffled a bit at Double-A and struggled badly in the Arizona Fall League, making for a disappointing 2018 after a strong first full season as a professional. He’s likely a year or two away and may never be more than a reserve in the majors, but the consensus seems to be that there are tools to work with.

As for Rodriguez, the hard-throwing 25-year-old reached the majors last year, bringing control problems with him. It’s hard to judge too harshly, though, as he was also in his first season pitching past the High-A level. Rodriguez has worked almost entirely as a starter during his time in the farm, so he could be sent back down to keep refining. But it’s also possible the Indians will move him into a relief role, potentially of a multi-inning variety, and plan on utilizing him in the majors in the near future.

Veteran reporter Bill Madden suggested on Twitter that a deal was in the works, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic among others reporting (Twitter link) that the sides were in “serious discussions.” Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter) and Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (in a tweet) had the return. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To Non-Tender Deadline

By | at

Tonight marks the deadline for MLB clubs to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. As such, there’ll be a slew of pre-tender agreements announced today — particularly for arbitration-eligible players who might have otherwise been non-tender candidates. As we saw yesterday (and frequently in previous seasons), players agreeing to terms before the tender deadline will often sign for less than they’re projected, as the alternative in some cases may simply be to be cut loose into a crowded free-agent market.

We’ll track today’s pre-tender agreements here, with all referenced projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz…

  • Giants infielder Joe Panik settled at a $3.8MM price tag, per Heyman (via Twitter). That’ll represent a savings as against the $4.2MM projected salary. Many had wondered whether the new San Francisco front office would move on from Panik, who has one more year of arb eligibility remaining. Meanwhile, Heyman tweets that reliever Sam Dyson has agreed to a $5MM pact. That also comes in $400K below his projection.
  • The Padres settled with righty Bryan Mitchell for $900K, Heyman tweets. Mitchell had been a non-tender candidate at a projected $1.2MM sum.
  • Newly acquired first baseman C.J. Cron has agreed to a $4.8MM contract, the Twins announced. He projected to a $5.2MM salary; this becomes the latest of many indications of the unstable market position of defensively limited slugger types.
  • The Indians have settled with righty Danny Salazar for $4.5MM, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. He was projected at $5MM, with some wondering whether the Cleveland organization might non-tender him. The talented hurler missed the entire 2018 season. Meanwhile, righty Nick Goody is slated to earn $675K, Heyman tweets.
  • Southpaw Jonny Venters avoided arb with the Braves, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. It’s a $2.25MM deal, sitting well over the $1.5MM projection, though certainly his unusual career path could have led to some additional arguments for a stronger raise.
  • The Cardinals announced an agreement with lefty Chasen Shreve. Terms aren’t yet known. The 28-year-old had projected to take home $1.2MM for the 2019 campaign, but will settle at $900K per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • Pirates righty Michael Feliz has avoided arbitration with the club, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic was among those to report on Twitter. Feliz projected at a $900K salary and will get $850K, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. It’s a split agreement that promises $375K in the minors, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter).
  • Infielder Tyler Saladino has agreed to a $887,500 salary with the Brewers, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. That comes in below the $1MM he projected to earn.
  • The Athletics settled at $2.15MM with Liam Hendriks, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter), all of which is guaranteed. That’s just where he projected ($2.1MM) on the heels of a fascinating 2018 season. Hendriks was dropped from the MLB roster in the middle of the season but returned late in the year in dominant fashion as the A’s “opener.”
  • Lefty Sammy Solis agreed to terms with the Nationals to avoid arbitration, the club announced. He profiled as a potential non-tender candidate, so it seems likely the organization pushed to get something done before the deadline. Solis, who has an intriguing power arsenal but struggled through a homer-prone 2018, projected at $900K. He’ll earn $850K, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link).
  • The Athletics announced that they’ve agreed to a one-year deal with righty Ryan Dull in advance of tonight’s deadline. He’ll get $860K, Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets, which checks in pretty closely with his $900K projection. Dull, 29, posted a 4.26 ERA with 21 strikeouts and seven walks in 25 1/3 innings of relief in 2018.
  • Heyman also tweets that the Padres and Greg Garcia, whom they claimed off waivers earlier this offseason, settled on a one-year deal worth $910K that aligns with his $900K projection. Garcia hit .221/.309/.304 in 208 plate appearances with St. Louis last season and is a career .248/.356/.339 hitter in 860 plate appearances.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Brewers and Hernan Perez avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2.5MM, as first reported by Heyman. He’ll check in a bit shy of his $2.7MM projection but remain on hand as a versatile utility option in Milwaukee.
  • Left-hander Tony Cingrani and the Dodgers avoided arb with a one-year deal worth $2.65MM. That checks in just south of the lefty’s $2.7MM projection. Cingrani turned in a brilliant 36-to-6 K/BB ratio in 22 1/3 innings but was also tagged for a considerably less palatable 4.76 earned run average.
  • The Red Sox announced that they’ve agreed to terms on a one-year contract for the 2019 season with right-hander Tyler Thornburg. They’ve also tendered contracts to the remainder of their arbitration-eligible players, though the terms of those deals will be negotiated in the coming weeks. Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets that Thornburg will earn $1.75MM i 2019 and can earn another $400K via incentives. I’m told that includes $100K for reaching each of 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances. Thornburg, 30, was roughed up to the tune of a 5.63 ERA in 24 innings for the Sox this season — his first action for Boston since being acquired prior to the 2017 season. His Boston tenure has been utterly derailed by thoracic outlet syndrome and the ensuing surgery. Thornburg was excellent for the 2016 Brewers, and Boston parted with Travis Shaw in order to acquire him, so the Sox will surely hope that a regular offseason of rest and further removing himself from TOS surgery will get the righty back on track. This will be Thornburg’s final season of club control. He’d been projected to earn $2.3MM.

Latest On Patrick Corbin’s Market

By | at

The teams that have already met with free-agent lefty Patrick Corbin have been given the impression that he’s hoping to be the first major free agent to sign a long-term contract this winter, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic. Corbin met with the Phillies, Nationals and Yankees this week, though he’s surely been in contact with other clubs as the consensus top starting pitcher available in free agency. Stark suggests that a Corbin signing “will almost certainly” happen before the Winter Meetings, which are already only nine days away from beginning.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that early interest in Corbin is robust, with some teams believing he’ll receive offers of six years in length. (MLBTR projected Corbin to sign a six-year, $129MM contract.) Notably, Rosenthal cites one source in suggesting that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is “seriously focused” on acquiring Corbin, though Washington’s history of baking heavy deferrals into long-term contracts isn’t always well received by free agents.

More anecdotally, Rosenthal tweets that at Corbin’s offseason wedding, his younger brother donned a Yankees hat during his best man speech and joked that he hoped the groom would soon be moving closer to home. (Corbin, a childhood Yankees fan, is from Syracuse.) The New York Post’s Ken Davidoff spoke to Yankees general manger Brian Cashman about the team’s meeting with Corbin, though Cashman unsurprisingly declined to reveal much, simply stating that Corbin “left here knowing a lot more about us than when he arrived.” The GM did, however, imply that the organization won’t necessarily wait for Corbin to make a decision before moving on. Based on Stark’s report, however, it doesn’t sound as if Corbin will be making interest parties wait all that long.

The 29-year-old Corbin is the second-youngest and very arguably the best starting pitcher on the free-agent market. He turned in his second career 200-inning season in 2018, his second straight season with 33 appearances and ranked seventh among qualified starting pitchers in strikeout percentage as well as second in swinging-strike rate.

If there’s a knock on Corbin, it’s that he doesn’t have a lengthy track record of performing at this level — largely because he underwent Tommy John surgery midway through his Diamondbacks tenure, missed one and a half seasons, and struggled in his first full year back. He’s been a quality hurler over the past two seasons, though, and D-backs pitching coach Mike Butcher tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he believes Corbin can maintain his 2018 transformation for years to come. Butcher and Lauber discuss the changes to Corbin’s arsenal — including the refinement of his slider and altered usage of his curveball — that brought about Corbin’s breakout season in 2018 in an interview that’s well worth a full read-through for fans hoping their preferred club will land the lefty.

Nationals, Yankees, Phillies Meet With Patrick Corbin

By | at

4:10pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that Corbin has also met with the Nationals in Washington, D.C. this week. It’s not clear if Corbin has met with any other clubs on what looks to be a tour of some east-coast contenders with interest in the lefty. Like the Phillies and Yankees, the Nats have some obvious needs in the rotation. At present, the Nats have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark are the top three options on the team’s depth chart, with young hurlers Joe Ross (returning from Tommy John surgery) and Erick Fedde among the options for the final two rotation spots.

Nov. 28, 3:25pm: Following yesterday’s meeting with the Phillies, Corbin is headed to New York to meet with Yankees officials, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). There’s no meeting set between Corbin and the Mets while his camp is in New York, Sherman adds.

A meeting between the Yankees and Corbin was all but a foregone conclusion. The Yanks are known to be eyeing high-end rotation help even after acquiring James Paxton, and Corbin stands out as the best starter on the market. Beyond that, the two sides have been linked for the better part of a year; reports indicated that the Yankees had interest in acquiring Corbin last year and last offseason, and he’s gone on record to indicate that he grew up a Yankee fan. None of that makes Corbin to the Bronx a fait accompli, but it’d certainly be a surprise if the Yanks weren’t firmly in the mix for Corbin until the very end.

Nov. 27: The Phillies, expected to be one of the most active teams in free agency, are meeting with left-hander Patrick Corbin at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia today, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Corbin is “high on [the] Phillies’ wish list,” Salisbury adds, though certainly one in-person visit doesn’t indicate that there’s anything close to fruition between the two sides.

Corbin, 29, is the consensus top starter on the free-agent market after racking up 200 innings of 3.15 ERA ball with 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9 and a 48.5 percent ground-ball rate. No qualified starter in baseball topped Corbin in terms of opponents’ chase rate (38 percent), and only Max Scherzer bested Corbin’s 15.6 percent swinging-strike rate. Fielding-independent metrics actually liked Corbin more than his ERA (2.47 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA).

[Related: Philadelphia Phillies Offseason Outlook | Philadelphia Phillies depth chart]

As MLBTR contributor Rob Huff recently explored, the Phillies have enormous payroll flexibility this offseason — as much as nearly any team in the Majors — which should allow them to pursue multiple top-tier free agents. Majority owner John Middleton recently told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that he has every expectation of spending aggressively this winter, playfully adding that the Phillies might “even be even a little stupid about it.”

Corbin would improve any pitching staff in baseball, and he’d give the Phillies a dynamic one-two punch atop the rotation in conjunction with emerging ace Aaron Nola. Teamed with Jake Arrieta and some combination of Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, Jerad Eickhoff and Enyel De Los Santos, that top three would give the Phillies a formidable and, as importantly, deep stock of arms from which to draw as the team looks to redeem itself in the wake of a catastrophic late-season collapse. Of course, adding an arm of Corbin’s caliber would also make it a bit easier to stomach trading from that reservoir of younger arms in order to address other areas on the roster. And while MLBTR projected Corbin to top $20MM annually over a six-year term, the Phillies’ wide-open payroll slate would still leave them ample room to add him and one of the top two free agents on the market; the Phils have been prominently linked to both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in the early stages of free agency.

Nationals To Sign Henderson Alvarez

By | at

Right-handed hurler Henderson Alvarez has reportedly inked a minor-league deal with the Nationals that includes a spring invite. It appears that Ángel D. Conde Trujillo had the news first on Twitter, with multiple stateside reporters tweeting the signing as well this evening.

Alvarez, 28, is again trying to make his way back to the majors after his career was derailed by shoulder woes. The former Marlins hurler, who signed with but never threw for the Athletics in 2016, appeared briefly with the Phillies in 2017 but did not pitch in affiliated ball in the most recent season.

While he was away, Alvarez did throw in the Mexican League. He turned in 120 2/3 innings in the Mexican League, working to a 3.58 ERA with 4.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. Alvarez has also been pitching in winter ball in his native Venezuela, where he has allowed twenty earned runs on 43 hits over 30 2/3 frames while recording just ten strikeouts and five walks.

Needless to say, those numbers don’t inspire confidence. But it’s fair to note that Alvarez has never been a strikeout pitcher. Indeed, he barely averaged more than a strikeout every other inning as a big leaguer. But he did pitch to a 3.82 ERA in 577 2/3 career MLB innings, owing in large part to his ability to limit the free passes (2.2 BB/9) and long balls (0.87 HR/9) while churning out groundballs (54.8% GB%).

For the Nationals, Alvarez is simply a player who’ll have a chance to show something in camp. The big question, perhaps, is whether he’ll be able to regain some of his lost velocity. After sitting at 94 with his four-seamer and sinker from 2011 to 2014, Alvarez clocked in at less than 92 mph with both pitches during his injury-shortened 2015 effort and short-lived 2017 return.

Could The Nats Trade For A Starter?

By | at

  • The Nationals are thought to be “aiming higher” in their search for starting pitching rather than trying to swing buy-low trades for Marcus Stroman or Sonny Gray, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes.  Janes’ piece in general looks at the pitching options open to the Nats on the trade market, and while GM Mike Rizzo doesn’t often make deals for notable starters, he is willing to pay a significant price when he does covet an arm.  Washington parted with seven total players to acquire Doug Fister in 2013 and Gio Gonzalez in 2011, and since those trades, Rizzo has preferred to rely on free agency or homegrown arms to bolster the rotation.  With so many interesting starters available in trade talks this winter, however, it wouldn’t be surprising if Rizzo went that route instead of making another signing.

Nationals Could Add More Catching

By | at

  • Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com suggests the Nationals might not be finished in their search for a frontline catcher, despite the recent signing of Kurt Suzuki. The 35-year-old backstop may easily give the Nats 50 to 60 games behind the dish, but few teams employ a true workhouse catcher nowadays and Suzuki might be better suited as the lesser half of a catching tandem. Kerzel imagines the possible ways in which GM Mike Rizzo might pair Suzuki with Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto or Wilson Ramos, though he admits it is equally likely the Nationals head into next season with Suzuki atop the depth chart. Considering Suzuki was arguably the top option available this winter outside the big three listed above, it would be quite the coup for the Nats to come away with another top option at this juncture. Still, durability concerns for a 35-year-old backstop aren’t wholly unreasonable.

Players Added To The 40-Man Roster

By | at

Tonight marks the deadline for players to be added to their respective organizations’ 40-man rosters. Over the nine hours, there’ll be a flurry of moves, ranging from minor trades (like the one the Indians and Rays made yesterday), waiver claims and players being designated for assignment or outrighted. Each will be made to clear room for players who need protection from this year’s Rule 5 Draft. As a reminder, players who signed at 18 years of age or younger and have five professional seasons are eligible, as are players who signed at 19 or older and have four professional seasons under their belts.

Here’s a rundown of players who’ve been added to their respective 40-man rosters (which will be updated throughout the day)…

Read more

Nationals Sign Kurt Suzuki

By | at

Nov. 20: The Nationals have formally announced Suzuki’s two-year deal.

Nov. 19, 11:10am: Suzuki’s contract is a two-year, $10MM deal that’ll pay him $4MM in 2019 and $6MM in 2020, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.

10:24am: The Nationals have agreed to a two-year contract with free-agent catcher Kurt Suzuki, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The deal is pending a physical. Suzuki is represented by the MVP Sports Group.

Kurt Suzuki | Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Long a sturdy option, the veteran Suzuki took his offensive game to new heights over the past couple of seasons, hitting at a .276/.341/.485 clip with 31 homers over the course of 697 plate appearances while sharing time with Tyler Flowers.

Unlike many players who experience a significant jump in power production, the 35-year-old Suzuki hasn’t simply “sold out” in terms of sacrificing his typically excellent contact rate for some additional pop. He’s fanned at just an 11.8 percent clip over the past two years — the ninth-lowest among all MLB hitters in that time (min. 600 plate appearances). Suzuki upped his hard-hit rate and homer-to-fly-ball ratio in significant fashion and will look to carry that improved production over to a return stint with the Nationals, for whom he played in 2012-13.

In Suzuki, the Nats will likely find an offensive upgrade over the production (or lack thereof) that they received from Matt Wieters over a previous two-year deal of his own. Getting some help behind the plate was imperative for the Nats, who saw Wieters and a slew of backup options combine to bat just .211/.290/.319 through 1259 plate appearances in 2017-18. Even with some regression in his bat — Nationals Park, notably, is not as hitter-friendly as SunTrust Park — Suzuki should be able to provide an uptick in offensive output at the position.

Defensively, Suzuki hasn’t generated the same level of results. His throwing improved with the Braves after a poor two-year stretch with Minnesota in that regard, but Suzuki’s 21.3 percent caught-stealing rate (25-for-117) over the past two seasons still checks in well below the league average of about 27.5 percent. To Suzuki’s credit, Baseball Prospectus has graded him among the best in the game at blocking pitches in the dirt over the past two seasons, but B-Pro has also rated his framing skills to be below-average in each season dating back to 2008.

It’s not yet clear if Suzuki will represent the Nationals’ sole addition at catcher. Solid as his bat was with the Braves, Suzuki averaged 85 games caught between the two seasons and hasn’t topped 100 games behind the dish since serving as the Twins’ primary backstop in 2015. Pedro Severino, Spencer Kieboom and Raudy Read represent the organization’s other three catching options on 40-man roster, and while any could conceivably serve as a backup to Suzuki, none has experienced big league success to date. Suzuki’s excellent production in 2017-18 should assure him of a prominent role in the Washington lineup, but the rest of the outfit still looks uncertain.

The addition of Suzuki is the third notable pickup in what has been an active offseason for Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo and his front office. The Nats have already acquired righty Kyle Barraclough from the Marlins in exchange for international bonus allotments, and Washington also rolled the dice on a one-year deal with former Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal, who’ll be returning from Tommy John surgery in 2019. Of course, the biggest question surrounding the Nats will be whether they retain former NL MVP Bryce Harper in free agency or if they let him sign with another organization. Certainly, the money promised to Suzuki on this new contract won’t stand as any real impediment to those efforts, but the Nats have holes to fill in the rotation and possibly at second base, as well.

As for the Braves, they won’t receive compensation for the loss of Suzuki, and they’ll now have to watch the former fan and clubhouse favorite suit up for one of their top division rivals. Atlanta already extended Flowers through the 2019 season, but it seems quite likely that they’ll be adding a catcher of some note to step up and handle a significant chunk  — if not the vast majority — of playing time for the 2019 season.

Suzuki checked in 46th on MLBTR’s ranking of the Top 50 free agents this offseason, with an estimated two-year pact worth a total of $8MM. In our corresponding Free Agent Prediction Contest, just 3.87 percent of respondents correctly guessed that he’d return to the Nats.

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?

By | at

Free agent lefty Patrick Corbin is arguably the top hurler on the market this offseason.  The former Diamondback timed his ascension to dominance perfectly last season, posting career bests in strikeout rate (11.07 K/9), HR/9 (0.68), FIP (2.47), xFIP (2.61), ERA (3.15), fWAR (6.3) and games started (33) in a pivotal walk year for the 29-year-old.  If not for the staggering wire-to-wire performance of Mets righty Jacob deGrom, Corbin’s defense-independent pitching marks would have paced the Senior Circuit, besting even the perennial virtuosity of two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer of the Nationals.  In a free agent class replete with everything but top-end arms, Corbin has positioned himself squarely at the top: as our own Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd see it, the hurler is the premier available starting pitcher, set perhaps to command a deal in excess of $125MM over multiple seasons.

Signs of caution, however, do mark the landscape. Though Corbin has fewer innings under his belt than most starters his age, the limited output came with a price – a Tommy John surgery following a breakout 2013 campaign knocked out all of the following season, plus half of the next, and a hopeful rebound in 2016 was derailed by shaky command and a dangerous propensity for giving up the gopher ball. Corbin also relies heavily on a wipeout slider that ranked as the league’s very best in 2018: after a lessened reliance on the pitch in the two-year aftermath of the surgery, the lefty has again ramped up its use, throwing it a shocking 41.3% of the time in 2018, the second-highest among all starting pitchers in baseball last year.  The pitch, of course, is renowned for the stress it places on the thrower’s elbow, and has long been circumstantially linked to the UCL tear that precipitates Tommy John.

There’s also the body of work.  Never a top prospect, Corbin seemed, after nearly 750 IP at the major-league level following the 2017 season, to have settled comfortably in a place quite near his long-ago projected role: Baseball America reports in 2010 and 2011 pegged him as a “number 3 or four” and “number four” starter, respectively, and the lefty’s minor league performance did little to discredit that view.  Acquired from the Angels in a 2010 deadline deal that sent Dan Haren to Los Angeles, Corbin was a secondary piece in the return headlined by former top prospect Tyler Skaggs.  The slider-slinging lefty did offer a quality 2013 season, posting an ERA/FIP/xFIP all between 3.40 and 3.50, but the performance coincided with a near all-time offensive low across the league – his park- and league-adjusted xFIP that year, after all, was just eight percent better than league average.

There were more stumbles to follow.  A partial-year renaissance in 2015 was followed, in the middle of the next season, by a demotion to the bullpen; despite a career-high 53% ground-ball rate, Corbin’s walk rate ballooned to near four per nine, and he was too often bit by the long ball.  Heavier slider use ushered in another rebound in 2017, but shades of last year’s dominance were still scarce: at the conclusion of that season, Patrick Corbin had, in 745 innings pitched, vindicated the scouts’ reports, offering up a perfectly harmonious 97 ERA-/97 FIP-, three percent better than the league average.  ZiPS projected to hurler to be slightly better in the 2018 season, pegging him for a 94 ERA-/95 FIP- in the newly-humidor-scarred Chase Field.

So what, then, will teams make of the innings-eater-turned-ace in the new-look pitching environment?  Will heavier bullpen dependence suppress the value of starting pitchers across the board?  Will teams hold his mostly-middling ways against him, dismissing the recent ascension as outlier?  Will the slider-heavy profile give them pause?  Or will they double down, certain they’re acquiring a staff-leading ace far into the next decade?  And, most notably for this piece, which teams seem mostly likely to fall into the category of the latter?

The Yankees, unsurprisingly, may be his top suitor.  Corbin, who was raised outside Syracuse, NY, grew up a Yankee fan: “It would definitely be great to play there,’’ he told Bob Nightengale of the USA Today earlier this year. “I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans. Living up in Syracuse, everybody’s a Yankee fan. Not too many Mets fans up there.’’  The Bombers, who recently re-signed C.C. Sabathia for one final year, still face questions in the rotation’s back half, where a disappointing 2018 performance from Sonny Gray has left him squarely on the the block.  The fit between the storied franchise and New York native seems an ideal one, especially in a park that rewards left-handed power like few others – Corbin, for his career, has been death on lefties, striking out nearly 31% of them and allowing just 20 total HR, good for a minuscule 2.54 xFIP against.  The Yanks, who last year failed to eclipse the luxury-tax threshold for the first time in 15 seasons, seem primed and ready to make their periodic splash, but whether or not a free agent hurler is foremost in their efforts remains to be seen.

Next in line may be the Phillies, whose team ownership has made no attempt to hide its fervent pursuit of the market’s top assets, with principal owner John Middleton noting that the club could be “a little bit stupid about it.”  After a systematic payroll reduction over the last few seasons, the Phillies finally re-announced their presence as a major offseason player with last year’s signing of Jake Arrieta, and again seem ready to pounce in the more bountiful class of 2018-’19.  The rotation, which in ’18 had one of the league’s widest ERA-FIP gaps, likely due in large measure to the shoddy left-side defense of Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, and Scott Kingery, is chock-full of controllable arms with significant upside, and posted sterling peripherals as a whole last season.  Still, uncertainty hovers around the burgeoning careers of righties Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, each of whom turned a second straight season of poor performance on the back of encouraging secondary stats, and Zach Eflin, who was downright dreadful in limited big-league action before 2018.  With the club’s top pitching prospects at least a couple years away, and money to burn across the diamond, the Fightins may elect to prop up an area of strength as they enter a pivotal 2019.

The Braves could also be a major player here, what with the windfall they’ve received from increased attendance at their new Smyrna, GA, home, and question marks all across the rotation.  After Mike Foltynewicz, the organization has little on which it can count next season – Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran sprinted to the big leagues oozing promise, but have been mostly uneven since, and heralded rookie Sean Newcomb again battled the command issues that had so often plagued him in the minors.  Touki Toussaint was a nice surprise, but he walked nearly seven men per nine in a brief MLB stint last season, and Calgary-born Mike Soroka spent much of the season’s second half on the shelf.  The farm is brimming with starting pitching talent of all types, but none have asserted themselves as MLB-ready for 2019.  There’s been little indication from GM Alex Anthopolous that the club is looking to make a major splash, but the up-and-coming Braves seem as good a fit as any for the 29-year-old Corbin, should the team decide to move in that direction.

The Astros, perhaps set to lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, could also be a factor.  Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are free-agents-to-be following the 2019 season, Lance McCullers Jr. just underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the ’19 season, and the club’s glut of upper-level starting pitching depth has dwindled in recent years.  With GM Jeff Luhnow announcing that the club will move Collin McHugh back to the rotation, two spots are still in flux.  Luhnow seemed cryptic when asked about a possible increase in the 2019 payroll, but with so many rotation question marks in the years to come, a top-level arm would seem an ideal fit for the 2017 champions.

The Nationals, who’ve seen a once-historic rotation dwindle to just Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and possible non-tender candidate Tanner Roark, plus a series of who-knows and could-bes, also have the money and the need, should the club decide to pivot away from Bryce Harper.  Still, with a whopping $245MM combined owed to Scherzer and Strasburg over the life of their deals, signing another high-priced starter would seem exceedingly unlikely.

Other teams, like the Dodgers, Twins, Giants, and Angels could be in play, to a lesser degree.  Los Angeles has the money, of course, but has been loath to shell it out to a high-priced free agent from outside the organization under GM Andrew Friedman’s watch, and the club is already stocked with quality left-handed arms.  The Twins have stripped their payroll to nearly nothing in recent years, but still have a bevy of intriguing rotation options and numerous holes on the offensive side.  The Giants, of course, had the league’s highest payroll last season, but still owe over $120MM combined to Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, and don’t figure to be players in the offseason starting pitching market.  The Angels, devoid now of anything resembling a top-end arm after Shohei Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery, could be a background lurker, though the club is still saddled with Albert Pujols’ albatross for another three seasons and may find other needs more urgent.

Which team will be the one to pull the trigger?

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top