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2018 Vesting Options Update

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We already took a preliminary look at the vesting option scenarios playing out around the game, but we’ve now gained quite a bit of clarity over the last six weeks. Generally, vesting options are club options that can become guaranteed based on the player’s health and/or performance. Typically, achieving contractually defined thresholds (such as for plate appearances or games finished) takes the decision out of the team’s hand, with some clauses also requiring certain health standards to be triggered.

Here’s where things stand at present:

Already Vested

  • Greg Holland: That was fast! Holland has already racked up thirty games finished, meaning that what was a $10MM mutual option for 2018 has been converted into a $15MM player option. With a league-leading 25 saves in the bank, along with 29 1/3 innings of 1.53 ERA pitching, it seems unlikely that Holland will take that cash rather than testing the open market — though he could also have to turn down a qualifying offer and hit free agency weighed down a bit by draft compensation. (Notably, too, Holland is cracking into some hefty contract incentives. He is on track to earn most or all of the $11MM in available bonus money.)

On Track To Vest

  • Gio Gonzalez: While Gonzalez is pitching well enough to make it a foregone conclusion that the Nationals would pick up his 2018 option at $12MM, that step won’t be necessary if he ends the regular season with 180 innings on his ledger. Working deep into games has been an issue for Gonzalez in recent years, but he has already topped 100 frames through just 16 starts thus far in 2017. Barring an injury, this one looks quite likely to vest.

Unlikely To Vest

  • Ricky Nolasco: The 34-year-old faces an uphill battle, but he’s at least keeping it interesting. Nolasco can turn a $13MM club option ($1MM buyout) into a player option if he gives the Halos 202 1/3 frames this year. That’s a big number, but Nolasco has managed to log 90 2/3 innings through 16 outings, leaving 111 2/3 left to achieve. Even if he takes the ball another 16 times the rest of the way, he’d need to go seven innings per start — a pace typically achievable only by a few top aces around the game. (Currently, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale top the leaderboard with 113 2/3 frames.)
  • Matt Cain: The Giants are sure to pay Cain a $7.5MM buyout rather than picking up his $21.5MM option for the 2018 campaign. But the veteran righty could take that decision out of the team’s hands if he’s able to reach 200 innings this year and stay off of the DL at season’s end. Cain has made all 16 of his starts so far, but he has accumulated only 84 innings. While it’s a theoretical possibility, then, it’s all but certain that this option won’t vest — and the Giants have every incentive to see that it doesn’t.
  • Hisashi Iwakuma: When the season started, it seemed reasonably likely that Iwakuma would trigger his second vesting season — as he did last year with the first. After compiling 199 innings in 2016, he needed to accumulate only 125 more (and avoid an unspecified injury) to lock up a $15MM payday. But Iwakuma is currently parked on the DL with just 31 frames in the bank; even if he is able to work deep in most of his remaining starts, he almost certainly won’t have enough to accumulate the 94 additional innings he needs. If he doesn’t get there, then Seattle will decide between a $10MM salary and a $1MM buyout.

Will Not Vest

  • Andre Ethier: Ethier’s $17.5MM club option vests upon 550 plate appearances in 2017. He has been shelved for the entire first half of the season, so he’ll have to take home a $2.5MM buyout as a consolation prize.
  • Matt Garza: This one is complicated, but here’s the bottom line: Garza cannot possible make enough starts to reach 110 in total from 2014-17 (he’s currently at 82), so his option cannot vest at $13MM. At the same time, it’s no longer possible for him to miss 130 or more days of action to the DL this year, so the club won’t get a shot at a $1MM option for his 2018 rights. Instead, the deal reverts to a club option at $5MM. See? It’s simple.
  • J.J. Hardy: The extension that Hardy signed with the O’s a few years back includes a $14MM club option (or a $2MM buyout), but that would vest if Hardy ended the 2017 campaign with 600 plate appearances on his stat sheet. That always seemed a stretch, but with his recent DL placement it’s no longer even possible.

Pitching Injury Notes: Smyly, Weigel, Keuchel, Nats, Salazar, Hendricks, Finnegan

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The Mariners got some unwelcome news about the status of rehabbing lefty Drew Smyly. As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, plans for Smyly to face live hitting were scuttled after the southpaw experienced some elbow discomfort. Pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre explains that Smyly has dealt with other such “episodes” while working back from a flexor strain, especially when throwing breaking pitches, so perhaps this could just be a minor blip. Still, he’s slated for a medical examination; at present, there’s no clear indication of what’ll come next. “Until the doctors check, and all that stuff subsides, you just can’t move forward,” explains Stottlemyre. “It’s hard to make a plan going forward until we know more.”

Clearly, Seattle’s deadline plans could be altered by Smyly’s progress (or lack thereof). If the team finds itself in a strong Wild Card position at the end of July, but doesn’t think it’ll get the rotation boost it needs, it’s at least possible to imagine a move to  bolster the rotation. Here are some more notable injury situations from around the game:

  • Young Braves hurler Patrick Weigel is headed for Tommy John surgery, per David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. That’s the result that was feared when it was learned that he had suffered a partial UCL tear. Soon to turn 23, Weigel had reached Triple-A in just his third professional season. He could’ve conceivably provided the Braves with a rotation option for 2018, so the loss should only increase the organization’s interest in adding a significant outside starter.
  • It seems the Astros are wisely taking a measured approach with southpaw Dallas Keuchel, who is working back from a pinched nerve in his neck. As Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes, skipper A.J. Hinch acknowledges that the club is “just being conservative” by “methodically putting a few more challenges in front of him” to bring Keuchel along slowly. With Keuchel in need of at some rehab outings before returning to the MLB hill, it seems he won’t likely make it back until after the All-Star break. That timeline surely works just fine for the front-running Astros, who are as close to a postseason shoe-in as there can be at this stage of the season.
  • The Nationals’ bullpen needs have long been a focus of the 2017 trade season. Just how many arms the Nats will go looking for could well depend in part upon the progress of several current pitchers. Per a club update, via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter), Sammy Solis appears to be making real strides after missing a significant stretch with elbow issues, as he was able to take the ball for Triple-A Syracuse. If the power lefty can return to health and to form, that’d be a significant boost. Meanwhile, Shawn Kelley (out with a trap strain) has resumed throwing — which is not yet the case for fellow righty Koda Glover (who is dealing with back issues).
  • There’s some positive momentum for Indians righty Danny Salazar, as Jimmy Miller of the Akron Beacon Journal writes. Salazar says his shoulder feels good, and he’s now slated to begin a rehab assignment. The high-octane hurler, 27, could potentially re-take a spot in the rotation or provide Cleveland with another fascinating, multi-inning-capable bullpen arm.
  • Likewise, the Cubs saw progress from righty Kyle Hendricks, as Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago tweets that he was able to throw (albeit only from 90 feet) without experiencing any issues in his hand. Hendricks has been dealing with tendon problems in his pitching hand, leading to a DL placement. Before going down with the injury, Hendricks had turned in eleven somewhat worrying starts. Expectations were high after he landed third in the 2016 Cy Young voting, but Hendricks has shown a significant velocity loss (over two miles per hour on his fastball) and a big drop in swinging-strike rate (from 10.0% to 7.3%). Getting him healthy and back to form would represent a big boost to the Cubs, though it’s not clear whether they’ll have a real read on his capacity before making deadline plans.
  • While the Reds haven’t yet made a move, it seems likely that lefty Brandon Finnegan is heading back to the DL. Initial indications were that he had only experienced a triceps strain during his first start after rehabbing an injury to the teres major muscle in his shoulder. Instead, per manager Bryan Price (on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM, via Twitter), the injury was traced to that same muscle. While it’s said to be in a different part of the muscle, it nevertheless seems rather concerning that Finnegan is experiencing issues in that same narrow area. The broader prognosis remains unclear at this moment, though Price said he expects the southpaw to miss “at least … several weeks, if not longer.”

Nationals To Sign Francisco Rodriguez

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TODAY: Rodriguez will have an opt-out opportunity on July 12th, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. That gives the Nats about two weeks to watch the veteran throw at Triple-A before making a decision on adding him to the MLB roster.

YESTERDAY, 7:27pm: A deal is now in place, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link).

3:09pm: The Nationals and veteran right-hander Francisco Rodriguez are nearing agreement on a minor league contract, according to reports from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter) and Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported earlier today that Washington was pursuing the Beverly Hills Sports Council client, who was released by the Tigers over the weekend.

Editor’s Note: an earlier version of this post mistakenly stated that the contract had been finalized.

The 35-year-old Rodriguez was clobbered for a 7.82 ERA through 25 1/3 innings in Detroit thanks largely to a staggering nine home runs allowed in that small sample of work. He’s had success with a diminished fastball in recent seasons, but this year’s average of 88.9 mph is the lowest of his storied career.

For all of his 2017 struggles, Rodriguez did post a very solid 3.24 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-high 54.7 percent ground-ball rate as the Tigers’ closer in 2016, totaling 44 saves throughout the year. He’s earning $8MM this year, though the Tigers are on the hook for the remainder of that considerable sum. The Nats will only have to pay K-Rod the pro-rated portion of the league minimum for any time he spends in the Majors.

Though the Nationals are running away with the NL East, their bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster in 2017. Washington’s 4.88 bullpen ERA ranks 26th in the Majors, and the Nats also rank 25th in bullpen FIP (4.72) and 21st in bullpen xFIP (4.52). The Nats currently have de facto closer Koda Glover and veteran righty Shawn Kelley on the disabled list along with lefty Sammy Solis. With that group on the shelf, the team is presently relying on Matt Albers, Enny Romero, Blake Treinen, Oliver Perez, Joe Blanton, Matt Grace and Jacob Turner to comprise its relief corps.

Obviously, there’s no guarantee that Rodriguez will serve as any type of upgrade over that bunch, but given the state of Dusty Baker’s bullpen, the Nats figure to be at least loosely interested in virtually any veteran reliever that becomes available. Moreover, it’ll be a shock if general manager Mike Rizzo doesn’t make at least one notable bullpen acquisition on the trade market, and it’s possible that he could look to acquire multiple relievers between now and the July 31 non-waiver deadline.

Injury Notes: Castro, Werth, Rodon, Finnegan, McCarthy

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Yankees second baseman Starlin Castro left last night’s game with a right hamstring strain, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes. The severity of the injury isn’t yet clear — he’ll head for an MRI today — but Castro did say that he hopes he can avoid a DL stint. If a roster move is needed, though, it seems that the club may give a shot to young infielder Tyler Wade. The 22-year-old, who’s slashing .313/.390/.444 at Triple-A, was pulled from his own game in case he’s needed in the majors.

Here’s the latest on some health issues from around the game:

  • It seems there’s some optimism within the Nationals organization that outfielder Jayson Werth is ready to move towards a return from his bruised left foot. As Byron Kerr of MASNsports.com reports, it’s possible that Werth could make it back by mid-July. In his absence (and that of Chris Heisey), the Nats have relied upon a combination of Brian Goodwin and Ryan Raburn. Both have hit quite well, making it an easier decision for the team to allow Werth to heal fully. Goodwin, a former top prospect, had scuffled at Triple-A but seems to have found his power stroke in the majors; the left-handed hitter could spell Werth and split time with Michael Taylor in center if the Nats don’t add another option up the middle at the deadline.
  • Prized White Sox southpaw Carlos Rodon is scheduled to make his first MLB start of the year tomorrow, as Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com reports. He has been brought along slowly by the rebuilding team, and has struggled in his rehab outings, but will finally return — leaving the Sox with some roster questions. Chicago will need to bump someone from the rotation, which currently features Mike Pelfrey, James Shields, Derek Holland, and the surprisingly effective David Holmberg behind top starter Jose Quintana. Righty Miguel Gonzalez is also still around, though he’s on the DL.
  • Reds lefty Brandon Finnegan left his first start back from the disabled list with what the team is calling a triceps strain. As Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes, the club is waiting to decide whether he’ll need to return to the DL until he’s examined today. While it’s promising that the new problem isn’t related to the teres major muscle strain that recently shelved Finnegan for an extended stretch, the organization will obviously look to exercise caution with the 24-year-old.
  • The Dodgers have announced yet another DL placement for a starter, this time involving righty Brandon McCarthy. As Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times explains, right knee tendinitis is the cause for the move, though it’s also notable that McCarthy struggled with command in his last outing. That raised some comparisons to the veteran’s problems in 2016. Regardless, it seems the hope is that McCarthy won’t miss much action and that he’ll be able to return to the strong form he has carried thus far in the current campaign, over which he has thrown 72 innings of 3.25 ERA ball. In corresponding moves, righty Brock Stewart and outfielder Trayce Thompson were elevated, with right-hander Ross Stripling being optioned to open the additional roster spot.

Nationals In Talks With Francisco Rodriguez

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Right-hander Francisco Rodriguez, who was recently released by the Tigers, is being pursued by the Nationals and is likely to end up signing there, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (via Twitter).

The Nationals, of course, have a clear need for bullpen help, and while K-Rod has been torched to this point of the 2017 season, he could at least make sense as a possible depth options for the Nats to stash in Triple-A for the time being. The 35-year-old Rodriguez was clobbered for a 7.82 ERA through 25 1/3 innings in Detroit thanks largely to a staggering nine home runs allowed in that small sample of work. He’s had success with a diminished fastball in recent seasons, but this year’s average of 88.9 mph is the lowest of his storied career.

For all of his 2017 struggles, Rodriguez did post a very solid 3.24 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-high 54.7 percent ground-ball rate as the Tigers’ closer in 2016, totaling 44 saves throughout the year. He’s earning $8MM this year, though the Tigers are on the hook for the remainder of that considerable sum. If he does indeed land with the Nats, Washington would only have to pay him the pro-rated portion of the league minimum for any time spent in the Majors.

Nationals Among Teams With Interest In Pat Neshek

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The Nationals have shown interest in Phillies righty Pat Neshek, reports FOX’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). Other clubs are interested in the veteran setup man as well, he notes, which comes as little surprise given Neshek’s affordable salary and strong work thus far in 2017.

Indeed, the 36-year-old Neshek has been nothing short of exceptional for the Phillies since being acquired in an offseason swap with Houston. Through 28 innings out of manager Pete Mackanin’s bullpen, the side-armer has worked to a minuscule 0.64 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and a 36.8 percent ground-ball rate. Though he’s had issues against left-handed batters in recent years, Neshek has held them to a mere .163/.205/.244 slash through an admittedly small sample of 45 batters faced in 2017. He’s had some good fortune on balls in play against lefties, but he’s also significantly dipped his walk rate against hitters that hold the platoon advantage.

Neshek is earning $6.5MM in 2017, and he’s still owed roughly $3.6MM of that sum through season’s end. While trades between division rivals aren’t especially common and are often trickier to work out, Neshek’s status as a rental likely makes it a bit easier for the two sides to align. And, it should of course be noted that the Nats and Phillies have lined up on trades in the past, with Philadelphia recently trading Jonathan Papelbon to Washington in a 2015 swap that netted the Phils right-hander Nick Pivetta.

Much of the focus on the Nationals has been on their need for an established closer, but in reality the team could benefit simply from adding multiple quality relievers. While names like David Robertson, Alex Colome and AJ Ramos may well be kicked around in connection with Washington, the Nats have seen what were perhaps projected as their top four arms — Blake Treinen, Koda Glover, Shawn Kelley and Joe Blanton — each post an ERA north of 5.00 this season. Deepening the relief corps as a whole, and not merely fortifying the ninth inning, figures to be the priority for the Nationals over the summer.

Agency Changes: Delgado, Ramirez, Robles, Polanco

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Here at MLBTR we do our best to cover notable agency changes while keeping tabs on player representation through our Agency Database. Here are a few recent moves:

  • D-backs right-hander has hired Dan Lozano of MVP Sports as his new representative, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman as part of his weekly NL Notes column. Once one of baseball’s top prospects, Delgado didn’t pan out as a starter but has become a solid piece in the Arizona bullpen in recent years. He’s made four starts this year and fared nicely, but he’s back in the ’pen and is on his way to perhaps his best season. Through 51 2/3 innings, Delgado has a 3.48 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate. Delgado, 27, is controllable for one more year before hitting the open market after the 2018 campaign.

Earlier Notes

  • Indians utilityman extraordinaire Jose Ramirez will move his representation to the Wasserman Media Group, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. It seems that Ramirez is sticking with agent Rafa Nieves, who just joined Wasserman. Ramirez has only just embarked upon a new, four-year deal with Cleveland that was inked late in Spring Training. With two options included, the contract covers all of Ramirez’s potential arbitration eligibility and allows the organization to control the switch-hitting 24-year-old through his age-31 season. He had earned the deal after a strong 2016 season, but his stock has risen yet further after opening the 2017 campaign with a .322/.376/.557 slash through 290 plate appearances. Notably, Ramirez has already swatted 11 long balls, matching last year’s tally in less than half the trips to the plate.
  • Also moving to Wasserman is top Nationals prospect Victor Robles. Though he only just reached his twentieth birthday and hasn’t yet reached the upper minors, Robles received consensus top-ten leaguewide prospect billing  entering the current season. He hasn’t disappointed, slashing .296/.393/.505 with six home runs and 13 steals through 233 plate appearances at the High-A level. While it seems unlikely that Robles will make it to D.C. before the 2018 season, he could be a foundational piece for the organization.
  • Meanwhile, Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco will take his business to Octagon and agent Ulises Cabrera, according to 1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson (via Twitter). The 23-year-old switch-hitter entered the current season with 105 days of MLB service, meaning he won’t be able to qualify for arbitration until at least 2020 and can’t qualify for free agency until 2023. Polanco was a highly regarded prospect who raised expectations with a solid performance in his first extended MLB stint last year. He has struggled thus far in 2017, though, with a .242/.294/.338 batting line through 219 plate appearances.

Health Notes: Pollock, Smith, E-Rod, Villar, Hughes, Zobrist, AGon, Semien, Werth, Flaherty

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Diamondbacks outfielder A.J. Pollock has suffered a new injury while on a rehab assignment, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets. Pollock, who is working back from a groin strain, is now said to be day-to-day with tightness in his right quad. The severity isn’t yet known, though the presence of another lower-body muscle issue will surely cause the organization to proceed with caution. With the Snakes locked in a surprising and increasingly fascinating battle in the NL West, they will be anxious to get Pollock back, though clearly the long view is required for such an important player with such a checkered injury history.

Let’s check in on a few more injury situations from around the game:

  • The Blue Jays placed righty Joe Smith on the 10-day DL before today’s game, per a club announcement. He is dealing with shoulder inflammation. That’s a big loss for a Toronto club that has made huge strides after a woeful start to the year. Smith has been quite effective while maintaining a heavy workload; through 34 appearances, he carries a 3.41 ERA. More impressively, Smith has nearly doubled last year’s strikeout rate (13.4 K/9) while maintaining a 13.0% swinging-strike rate that dwarfs any of his prior single-season marks.
  • While the Red Sox wait to learn more about the status of second baseman Dustin Pedroia, who took a pitch to the ribcage on Sunday, the club has continued to receive good news on lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. As Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets, skipper John Farrell says that Rodriguez will face live hitters this week and possibly head out for a rehab assignment thereafter.
  • Things are clearing up for Brewers infielder Jonathan Villar as well, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets. Villar, who has struggled in the wake of a breakout 2016 season, says that his lower back is feeling so much better that he might be ready for a rehab stint soon. Milwaukee may well need a healthy and more effective Villar if it hopes to continue to outpace the rest of the NL Central.
  • In other forthcoming rehab stints, Twins righty Phil Hughes is scheduled for a start at Triple-A on Wednesday, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports. It seems that he has avoided the worst-case scenario after experiencing some symptoms akin to those that led to thoracic outlet surgery. Minnesota is also giving a rehab start to lefty Hector Santiago, who seems likely to avoid a lengthy DL stint for his shoulder issue.
  • Veteran Cubs infielder/outfielder Ben Zobrist got some good news, as Jeff Arnold of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. An MRI came back clean, leaving the club hopeful that the veteran will be able to return as soon as Friday. That said, Zobrist acknowledged that he still needs to test out the wrist at full speed, noting that “we’re not going to push it.”
  • Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts provided an update on first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times was among those to tweet. The veteran has received an epidural to treat his lower back issues, says Roberts, with the organization hopeful that Gonzalez will be able to return sometime around the All-Star break next month.
  • The Athletics will send shortstop Marcus Semien out on a rehab assignment later this week, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He has been participating in baseball activities to test his surgically repaired wrist, and it seems the progress is sufficient to allow him to take the next step.
  • Meanwhile, the going is somewhat slow for Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth. As Dan Kolko of MASNsport.com tweets, manager Dusty Baker says that the veteran is still not ready for baseball activities. Instead, he’s still focused on taking care of his bruised left foot.
  • The Orioles don’t appear likely to welcome back infielder Ryan Flaherty any time soon, as Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. His balky shoulder didn’t respond well to an attempt to ramp up a throwing program, so the team will slow things down. Were it not for the injury, Flaherty would likely have represented part of the plan for dealing with the more recent DL placement of J.J. Hardy.

NL East Links: Marlins, Kelley, Adams, Braves

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There have been reports that the Marlins could consider dealing such major names as Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna or J.T. Realmuto at the deadline, though Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the Fish thus far “haven’t shown an inclination” to make a big roster shakeup.  A source tells Jackson that the Marlins are still a couple of weeks away before deciding on trading some players, including closer AJ Ramos.  Much is still in flux due to the potential sale of the team, of course, as Jackson notes that the front office would need to talk to both the new ownership group and Major League Baseball before exploring a big-ticket trade involving Giancarlo Stanton.

Here’s more from around the division…

  • The Nationals placed righty Shawn Kelley on the 10-day DL with a right trapezius strain.  The placement is retroactive to June 17 and A.J. Cole has been called up from Triple-A in a corresponding move.  This is Kelley’s second DL stint of the year, as he also missed some time with a lower back strain.  Kelley’s struggles have been a big contributor to Washington’s bullpen problems this season, as the veteran right-hander has a 7.00 ERA and a whopping nine homers allowed over 18 innings.
  • The Braves will go to a six-man rotation when Bartolo Colon returns from the disabled list next week, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes.  The Braves want a longer look at rookie Sean Newcomb while they’re also not ready to release the struggling Colon, who is owed a little over $7MM for the rest of the season.  It remains to be seen how long Atlanta will deploy the six-man rotation, though things could return to normal if a starter (such as Jaime Garcia) is dealt at the trade deadline.
  • Matt Adams has done nothing but mash since joining the Braves, though the first baseman knows he could be on the move again once Freddie Freeman returns from the DL, Adams tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  While he enjoys playing in Atlanta, “whenever Freddie comes back, wherever the next spot may be…I either finish out the season with Atlanta or go somewhere else,” Adams said.  “I’m open to anything right now. I’m taking it day by day.”  The interview is well worth a full read, as Adams discusses his time with the Cardinals and his reaction to being dealt last month.  Adams has a whopping 1.013 OPS and nine homers over just 114 plate appearances in a Braves uniform, making him a very attractive potential trade chip if Atlanta indeed does look to swap him again at the deadline.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Wilson, Madson, Nats, Cutch, Lynn, Darvish

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Some hot stove tidbits from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal in his latest Full Count video…

  • The Nationals have yet to engage in serious talks with the Tigers about Justin Wilson or with the Athletics about Ryan Madson, though the relievers are “two of the Nationals’ prime bullpen targets.”  There isn’t any indication yet that Detroit is open to moving Wilson, however, since the team is still in the race.  If the Tigers do become sellers, however, they’ll get plenty of interest in the southpaw, who took over from Francisco Rodriguez as closer earlier this season.  Wilson has a 2.67 ERA, 3.55 K/BB rate and 39 strikeouts over 27 innings.
  • The Pirates aren’t likely to deal Andrew McCutchen if they feel they can contend, though Rosenthal reminds us that the Bucs dealt Mark Melancon last season despite being just three games out of a wild card spot.  This season, it looks like Pittsburgh’s best path to the postseason is through the NL Central; the Bucs are just five games out of first place despite their 31-37 record (they’re 11.5 games back in the wild card race).  Trading McCutchen also wouldn’t necessarily mean that the Pirates would give up hope of contending this year, as Rosenthal notes that the club actually played better after dealing Melancon before a swath of September injuries ruined their chances.
  • The Cardinals are one of several teams that could be both buyers and sellers at the deadline.  For instance, St. Louis could consider trading Lance Lynn (a pending free agent) and then replace him in the rotation with one of the organization’s several young arms.  After missing all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Lynn has rebounded to post a 2.69 ERA, 8.67 K/9 and 2.37 K/BB rate over 73 2/3 IP this season.  Peripheral numbers (.207 BABIP, 86.5% strand rate) indicate that Lynn has perhaps been a bit fortunate, as his ERA indicators (4.75 FIP, 4.40 xFIP, 4.35 SIERA) are well above his actual 2.69 ERA.
  • While plans could change if the Rangers fall out of the race, a Yu Darvish deadline trade seems pretty unlikely right now since the team is playing better.  There are also longer-term considerations in play, as Texas wants to re-sign the star right-hander when Darvish hits free agency this winter and “the relationship between the Rangers and Darvish is deeper than most,” Rosenthal reports.  There’s also the interesting wrinkle that Darvish’s presence could help the Rangers in their pursuit of Shohei Otani, as Otani idolizes Darvish.
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