Poll: Which Of These Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
During the offseason, rumors about major league players dominate the headlines. Fans and analysts alike discuss potential landing spots for major league free agents and trade candidates. With so much of the focus on big name MLB players, the subject of which top prospects could change hands falls into the background.
The players below are some of the most valuable trade assets in the game who have not yet lost their rookie eligibility. MLB Pipeline considers each of them to be among the top 25 prospects in baseball. They all play for teams that are firmly in “win now mode”. Indeed, all five of them belong to teams that finished with a top four record in baseball last season. It’s safe to say that, were they to dangle their respective prospects as trade bait, each of those teams could fill nearly any need on their big league roster.
Victor Robles, OF (No. 2 Overall Prospect): Nationals
The Nationals signed Victor Robles out of the Dominican Republic at age 16, and he’s met little resistance throughout his development. The Nats promoted him to the majors for the first time in September of 2017; he even made the club’s NLDS roster. In his 24 regular season at-bats, Robles managed six hits, including three for extra bases. The Nationals are in need of another starting pitcher, and the 20-year-old outfielder could easily bring back an elite arm. Washington’s outfield picture for 2018 seems reasonably clear, with Adam Eaton, Michael Taylor and Bryce Harper all under contract and Brian Goodwin as a solid fourth outfielder option. However, Robles is practically major league-ready right now, so it might not make much sense to trade him when he could easily contribute this season. eIt’s especially important to note that Eaton, Taylor and Harper all dealt with injuries last season. With that in mind, the Nationals might prefer to deal their second-best prospect, outfielder Juan Soto, instead.
Kyle Tucker, OF (No. 7 Overall Prospect): Astros
Houston took Tucker out of H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, FL with the fifth pick in the 2015 draft. The young outfielder proceeded to rocket through the club’s minor-league system, reaching the Double-A level midway through 2017. Tucker’s hit tool is one of the best among minor-leaguers, but the Astros already have other left-handed outfield options at the major league level. Josh Reddick and Derek Fisher both bat primarily from the left side, while George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez and Jake Marisnick figure to be ahead of Tucker on the depth chart heading into 2018 as well. That’s not to say that Tucker isn’t more talented than those players, but it seems like a lot would have to happen for him to stumble into significant playing time next season. On the other hand, the Astros don’t have a clear hole on the major league roster outside of the bullpen, and Tucker is far too valuable to trade for a reliever. The organization has also reportedly been stingy about trading any of their top prospects lately, so perhaps it’s unlikely we’ll see him moved.
Francisco Mejia, C (No. 13 Overall Prospect): Indians
Mejia’s development has been a somewhat slow process; the Indians signed him out of the Dominican Republic all the way back in 2012. However, he’s vaulted up prospect lists after incredible success across the past two seasons, including a 50-game hit streak during the 2016 campaign. The best catching prospect in baseball is only 21 and has an elite hit tool from both sides of the plate. Cleveland decided to give him a bit of seasoning at the major league level this past September, which seems to imply that they think he could be close to MLB-ready. The Indians already have catchers Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez under contract for the foreseeable future, so Mejia could be a good candidate to be exchanged for help at first base if Carlos Santana signs elsewhere. But the Indians are also testing Mejia out at third base in the Arizona Fall League, a position he could more easily claim on the Tribe’s roster at some point in 2018.
Triston McKenzie, RHP (No. 20 Overall Prospect): Indians
After McKenzie struck out 157 batters in 91 innings during his senior year in high school, Cleveland selected the right-hander in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2015 draft. The lanky 20-year-old stands at 6’5″ and throws his fastball in the low 90s, though most scouts believe he could pick up even more velocity as he grows stronger. McKenzie struck out double-digit batters in six different games at the High-A level in 2017, including a 14-strikeout effort on May 9th. Overall, the Royal Palm Beach High School product pitched to a 3.45 ERA (and a 2.67 FIP) while punching out 11.71 batters per nine innings. With the Tribe’s window of contention seemingly at its peak, and McKenzie highly unlikely to reach the majors in 2018, the righty could potentially end up being an excellent trade chip. Even if the young righty were MLB-ready, the Indians already have a stacked rotation that will include Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and two of Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger. McKenzie could be dangled for help at first base (should Santana depart), or elite bullpen help such as Brad Hand or Felipe Rivero.
Alex Verdugo, OF (No. 23 Overall Prospect): Dodgers
The Dodgers took Verdugo in the second round of the 2014 draft, and the left-handed outfielder has done well at every level of the minors. His power isn’t prolific and his speed is average, but his hit tool is excellent. Verdugo is patient at the plate and is great at hitting to the opposite field. While fellow Dodgers prospect Walker Buehler is excluded from this list due to his proximity to the majors and a fairly clear opening in LA’s rotation, Verdugo could be more of a luxury than a vital asset. Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig are set to man center field and right field, respectively, and it’s unclear whether the Dodgers are ready or willing to give up on Joc Pederson yet, especially following a strong postseason performance. Verdugo could potentially be used to land a strong second baseman. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could be used to acquire a more proven outfielder, either. Still, the Dodgers have four other top 100 prospects outside of Buehler and Verdugo. Even if they attempt to make a blockbuster trade during the offseason, they might prefer to move someone a bit further away from the majors.
What do you think? Which of these top 25 prospects is most likely to be with another organization by the time spring training rolls around? (Poll link for app users)
Which Of These Top Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
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Alex Verdugo (Dodgers) 34% (4,669)
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None of these prospects has any chance of being traded 25% (3,415)
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Victor Robles (Nationals) 13% (1,724)
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Kyle Tucker (Astros) 12% (1,659)
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Triston McKenzie (Indians) 9% (1,281)
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Francisco Mejia (Indians) 7% (1,023)
Total votes: 13,771
AL Central Notes: Kinsler, Kintzler, White Sox
The results of this year’s Gold Glove Awards voting came in earlier this week, and in the American League it was Brian Dozier taking home his first career Gold Glove at second base. Dozier took home a standard $25K bonus for that distinction, but the more notable financial component of the award is that Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler did not take home the $1MM bonus he’d have received for capturing a second Gold Glove honor. Kinsler’s 2017 option vested based on plate appearances back in September, but his salary would’ve risen from $11MM to $12MM had he landed the extra hardware. The $1MM difference in his salary won’t have much of an impact on his overall trade stock, but it’s still of minor note for both the Tigers and interested parties as Detroit explores trade scenarios for its longtime second baseman this winter.
More from the AL Central…
- The Twins have already reached out to right-hander Brandon Kintzler about a possible reunion this winter, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Minnesota is one of a “handful” of teams to show early interest in the 33-year-old Kintzler, per Berardino, who also notes that the Nationals have interest in retaining the sinkerball specialist. Kintzler has turned in an ERA just over 3.00 in the past two seasons despite averaging scarcely better than five strikeouts per nine innings, thanks largely to his excellent control, lofty ground-ball rates and a dearth of hard contact allowed.
- Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times takes a look at the difficult decisions facing White Sox GM Rick Hahn and his staff this offseason as they determine what to do with Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia. Both are controlled through the 2019 season and are affordable for the Sox (who have extremely limited payroll commitments as they rebuild), but Van Schouwen notes that the team views 2020 as a more reasonable target date for a return to prominence in the AL Central. “Any player who isn’t controllable through the bulk of our window, we have to make an assessment,” Hahn tells Van Schouwen.
- Also of note, Van Schouwen writes that the Sox will likely field a payroll in the vicinity of $75MM next year. Including arbitration projections from MLBTR, the Sox are projected to pay roughly $50MM to a dozen players next season. They’ll need another 13 players at or near the league minimum to round out the roster, which would take them just north of $57MM. That’d leave around $18MM to add some reclamation projects and/or veteran stopgaps in the rotation or bullpen if the Sox find opportunities to their liking. A trade of Abreu (projected at $17.9MM) or Garcia ($6.7MM) would obviously alter their capacity for additions.
Nationals Add Derek Lilliquist, Tim Bogar To Coaching Staff
The Nationals announced on Thursday that they’ve hired longtime Cardinals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist to fill that same role on their staff under new manager Dave Martinez. The Nats also hired Tim Bogar, who was most recently the Mariners’ bench coach, as their new first base coach. The has also confirmed its previously reported hiring of Chip Hale (bench coach) and Kevin Long (hitting coach), and announced that Joe Dillon will be the new assistant hitting coach to Long. Bobby Henley is back with the team as the third base coach.
The 51-year-old Lilliquist was dismissed as the Cardinals’ pitching coach at season’s end. St. Louis ultimately chose to replace him with former Nats pitching coach Mike Maddux, meaning the two clubs have effectively swapped their 2016 pitching coaches. Lilliquist spent more than a decade and a half with the Cardinals organization, including the past six years as their pitching coach and the two years prior to that as the bullpen coach.
Bogar, also 51, joins the Nats after a long run in the American League West. A bench coach with the Rangers in 2014, Bogar joined the Angels’ front office as a special advisor in 2015 and jumped to the Mariners organization the following year when Jerry Dipoto (with whom he worked in Anaheim) was named GM in Seattle. With the Mariners, Bogar spent two seasons as the bench coach. He’ll bring another experienced coach to the staff as well as one that is quite familiar with analytics due to his close working relationship with Dipoto. He’s also coached on the Red Sox’ staff in the past.
The 42-year-old Dillon was the Nationals’ hitting coach with Triple-A Syracuse in 2014-15 but has spent the past two seasons as a minor league hitting coordinator in the division-rival Marlins organization.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first tweeted the news that Bogar had been hired. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post first reported Lilliquist had been hired (also via Twitter).
Nationals To Name Chip Hale Bench Coach
The Nationals will name current Athletics third base coach and former Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale their new bench coach, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll serve as the right-hand man to rookie skipper Dave Martinez, who was recently signed to a three-year deal as the new manager in Washington, D.C.
Hale, 52, spent two seasons as the Diamondbacks’ manager back in 2015-16 before being replaced with Torey Lovullo by Arizona’s new front-office regime. In addition to his time skippering the D-backs, he’s had two stints on Oakland’s coaching staff and also served on the Mets’ Major League staff as well. Since concluding a seven-year playing career that spanned 1989-97 with the Twins and Dodgers, Hale has managed in the minors and spent eight years as an MLB-level coach (in addition to his two years as a manager). Suffice it to say, he’ll bring plenty of experience to a new-look Nationals coaching staff in 2018.
It’s been a busy offseason for Hale, who was also reportedly among the candidates to become the new manager of the Phillies and the Mets before those posts went to Gabe Kapler and Mickey Callaway, respectively. The move for Hale now leaves the A’s with a new vacancy on their staff that they’ll need to fill in the coming weeks.
Matt Wieters Exercises Player Option
NOV. 6: The Nationals have now formally announced that Wieters has exercised his player option.
4:44pm: Wieters will indeed exercise his player option to remain with the Nationals, the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes reports (Twitter link).
NOV. 4, 8:19am: It “is not at all a done deal” that Wieters exercises his option, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets. The catcher has yet to make a decision in either direction.
NOV. 3, 1:05pm: Agent Scott Boras tells Feinsand that Wieters is still mulling the decision (Twitter link). “What he does for a pitching staff is off the charts & in great demand,” Boras tells Feinsand.
12:20pm: Matt Wieters intends to exercise his $10.5MM player option and remain with the Nationals in 2018, reports MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (on Twitter). It’s not a surprising move for Wieters, considering the poor season he had in his first year as the Nationals’ primary backstop.
The 31-year-old Wieters inked a two-year, $21MM guarantee with the Nats last offseason, with the latter year of that contract coming in the form of a player option. However, Wieters posted career-worst marks in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and caught-stealing rate with the Nats this season, so it’s seemed all but certain that he’d forgo another chance at free agency for quite some time now.
Overall, Wieters batted just .225/.288/.344 with 10 homers through 465 plate appearances. He halted 25 percent of opposing stolen-base attempts, which is only slightly below the league average but is also well south of the career 33 percent mark he carried into the 2017 season. He also rated as one of the game’s bottom pitch-framing catcher, per Baseball Prospectus.
Even with Wieters back in the fold, it’d be a surprise if the Nationals didn’t pursue help behind the plate this offseason. Young Pedro Severino is the team’s top internal alternative, but the 24-year-old Severino batted just .241/.292/.332 in 59 Triple-A games last season.
Given the Nationals’ status as clear-cut contenders — especially in their final season of control over Bryce Harper — GM Mike Rizzo seems unlikely to head in the year with such a glaring question mark on his roster. Myriad trade opportunities could present themselves, and it’s also possible (speculatively speaking) that the Nats could make a run at either Alex Avila or Welington Castillo — the top two catchers on the open market. Avila, in particular, strikes me as a logical candidate; he can play some first base in the event of an injury to Ryan Zimmerman, and his left-handed bat would pair well with Wieters, who has consistently been a more dangerous right-handed hitter than left-handed hitter throughout his Major League career.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Yu, Rangers, Mariners, Brantley, D-backs, Nats
Reflecting on his six-year tenure with the Rangers, impending free agent right-hander Yu Darvish told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News via text (through an interpreter) that he “listened and paid too much attention to any criticism I heard inside and outside the clubhouse” when he was a member of the team. Darvish also revealed that his relationship with his Rangers teammates “wasn’t great” at times. Those issues sapped Darvish of some of his joy for baseball, though he noted that he began regaining it after the Rangers traded him to the Dodgers on July 31. Darvish explained that his loss of enthusiasm wasn’t the fault of his previous club, however, as he came to realize “how much the Rangers and the fans cared about me” while in LA over the final three months of the season.
More from around the majors:
- The Mariners would like to retain impending free agent center fielder Jarrod Dyson, but his age (33) might stand in the way of them giving him a multiyear deal and lead to his exit, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes. First baseman Yonder Alonso could return, on the other hand, considering both the Mariners’ need at the position and general manager Jerry Dipoto’s assessment of the late-season trade acquisition’s performance in Seattle. “He plays a pretty solid first base. I think he gave us a presence after we got beyond the middle of our order,” Dipoto said of Alonso, who batted .265/.353/.439 in 150 plate appearances after coming over from Oakland. While the M’s are open to keeping Alonso, he’ll be part of “a pretty flush class of free-agent first baseman,” according to Dipoto, who added that “there are a lot of different options for us, and we want to make sure that we’re maximizing our potential at that position.”
- Although Michael Brantley missed a large portion of this past season with right ankle problems and then underwent surgery Oct. 19, the Indians still picked up his $12MM option for 2018 on Friday. When discussing the decision with Ryan Lewis of Ohio.com and other reporters, president Chris Antonetti noted that Brantley’s surgery carries a high rate of success (Twitter link). While the Indians are optimistic about Brantley’s health, Antonetti won’t talk about how the 30-year-old fits on the Tribe’s roster until he’s further along in his rehab, per Lewis.
- Diamondbacks infielder/outfielder Chris Owings underwent surgery on his right middle finger on Friday, the club announced. Owings previously had surgery on that same finger July 31, a day after he suffered what proved to be a season-ending fracture. The latest procedure “was performed to ensure continued proper and complete healing,” the D-backs stated.
- Bobby Henley will stay on as the Nationals’ third base coach under new manager Dave Martinez, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (Twitter link). As Washington’s third base coach since the 2014 season, Henley has survived the ousters of skippers Matt Williams and Dusty Baker.
Heyman’s Latest: Kapler, Hosmer, Kennedy, Werth, Ibanez, Bell
The Phillies‘ choice of Gabe Kapler as manager has drawn mixed reviews from around the game, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman writes, as Kapler’s unique approaches to baseball have brought him praise as an innovative thinker but also led to clashes with some players and personnel within the Dodgers organization. It should be noted that this didn’t extend to Dodgers front office heads Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi, both of whom are big fans of Kapler and made calls to the Mets and Phillies recommending him for their managerial openings. The Dodgers themselves almost hired Kapler as manager two years ago, though the fact that some players reportedly lobbied the team to instead go with Dave Roberts also stands out as a possible red flag. The article is well worth a full read to get a sense of the criticisms lobbied against Kapler, and why the Phillies’ hire “may be the biggest gamble of the winter.”
Some more from Heyman, as per his latest collection of notes from around baseball…
- The Royals‘ pursuit of Eric Hosmer could decide their immediate future, as the team could decide to forego re-signing any of their other free agents and rebuild if Hosmer can’t be brought back into the fold. It will take a sizeable offer to re-sign Hosmer, however, and while K.C. has been willing to spend to keep is championship window open, “their payroll is starting to press the limits.”
- Ian Kennedy won’t exercise his opt-out clause, and will remain with the Royals for the three years and $49MM remaining on his contract. While no official announcement has come from Kennedy or the team, the decision is an unsurprising one given the righty’s subpar season. Kennedy said himself in September that “it would be pretty stupid” to head into free agency on the heels of an injury-hampered year that saw Kennedy post a 5.38 ERA over 154 innings.
- Jayson Werth could potentially return to the Nationals on a one-year deal. Werth was hitting a solid .262/.367/.446 through his first 196 PA before missing almost three months due to a fracture in his left foot. He still seemed bothered by the injury after his return, leading to subpar numbers down the stretch. The Nats could conceivably use Adam Eaton as both a left fielder and center fielder next year, opening up playing time for Werth or Michael Taylor to fill whatever position Eaton isn’t occupying on any given day.
- Raul Ibanez was seen as a potentially strong contender to become the Yankees‘ next manager, though Ibanez reportedly likes his current position with the Dodgers (special advisor to Andrew Friedman) and doesn’t want to leave. Yankees GM Brian Cashman reportedly has 20-25 names on his list of managerial candidates.
- Newly-hired Giants VP of player development David Bell could potentially be a candidate to eventually take over the manager’s job from Bruce Bochy. Bell previously worked on the Cardinals’ and Cubs’ coaching staffs and worked as a manager in the Reds’ farm system, not to mention his 12-year career as a player. Bench coach Hensley Meulens has also been often cited as Bochy’s heir apparent. Bochy’s current contract runs through the 2019 season, and while his track record has likely given him the job as long as he wants, he also turns 63 in April and has dealt with some health issues in recent years.
NL East Notes: Nationals, Riley, Braves, Garcia
“There may be no ownership group in baseball that is more involved in the selection of its manager” than the Nationals, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes as part of a look at Dave Martinez’s hiring and owner Ted Lerner’s influence. Martinez’s three-year contract is “normal for the industry, outlandish for the Nats,” which indicates that Lerner (who just turned 92 last month) is more committed than ever to finally capture that elusive World Series championship. It could also hint at an aggressive offseason for Washington as it tries to add the final pieces to an already strong team.
Here’s more from around the NL East…
- The Braves have a need at third base, but David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution considers it unlikely that the team will look for a major upgrade at the hot corner this winter thanks to the presence of prospect Austin Riley. The 41st overall pick in the 2015 draft, Riley has shown solid power potential in his young career, including a .900 OPS in 203 Double-A plate appearances last season. With Riley perhaps on pace to crack the big leagues as a September call-up this year and then be in the mix for regular duty at third base in 2019, Atlanta doesn’t want to block his progress by adding a veteran on a long-term contract. MLBTR, for the record, predicted Mike Moustakas as a Braves signing this winter in our list of the top 50 free agents.
- The Braves‘ front office situation is still up in the air, though potential GM candidates could include such names as Alex Anthopoulos, Dan O’Dowd and Josh Byrnes, as per O’Brien (Twitter link) and MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. One interesting aspect of Atlanta’s search is that many of the names connected (this trio plus Jim Hendry, Dan Jennings, Ben Cherington, and rumored top choice Dayton Moore) are all former or current Major League general managers. This could indicate that the Braves want an experienced baseball operations leader who would be better equipped to operate despite whatever punishments or restrictions the organization could face once MLB concludes its investigation.
- The Marlins are considering stretching out left-hander Jarlin Garcia in Spring Training to give him a shot at a starting job, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes. Garcia made his MLB debut last year, posting a 4.73 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and 2.47 K/BB rate over 53 1/3 innings out of Miami’s bullpen. His numbers worsened as the season went on, however, which add to durability concerns about Garcia’s potential as a starter; Frisaro notes that the southpaw was converted to a relief role due to past concerns about his ability to stay healthy and effective as a starter. Assuming Garcia doesn’t run into any injury issues, the Marlins have little to lose by at least kicking the tires on his rotation potential, given how the club is sorely in need of starting pitching help.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/4/17
Here are some of the day’s notable minor moves:
- Right-hander Deolis Guerra has elected free agency, as per the Angels‘ official Twitter feed. Guerra was outrighted off the Halos’ 40-man roster on Thursday. The righty posted a 4.68 ERA, 7.9 K/9 and 1.83 K/BB rate over 25 relief innings for Los Angeles last season
- Infielder Phillip Evans is heading back to the Mets on a minors deal that includes a spring invite, per a club announcement. He made it up to the majors for the first time and had some success in a brief run. Evans spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A — his first action at the highest level of the minors — and ended with a .279/.341/.418 slash over 510 plate appearances.
- Outfielders Shane Robinson and Eric Young Jr. have elected free agency, the Angels announced. Both will likely end up with minor-league deals and camp invites, though perhaps Young in particular could land in a situation where he may have a shot at earning a bench role in camp. Robinson has struggled in his limited MLB time over the past two seasons, though he slashed .319/.379/.425 in 385 trips to the dish at Triple-A. Young had a productive run in a 125-plate appearance sample in the majors, slashing .264/.336/.418 while swiping a dozen bags. Like Robinson, he also showed well in precisely 385 plate appearances for Salt Lake, posting a .305/.375/.449 bating line while hitting the ball out of the park at an unprecedented personal rate (eight dingers in about half a season of work).
- Former big leaguer Ryan Feierabend will continue to pitch for the KBO’s KT Wiz, according to a Yonhap News report. The southpaw appeared in three-straight MLB campaigns beginning in 2006 (when he was just twenty years of age), but didn’t make it back until a brief showing in 2014. From there, it was on to the KBO. The 32-year-old emerged in 2017 as the league-leader in ERA. He’ll earn a bit over $1MM after providing 160 frames of 3.04 ERA ball with 7.4 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.
- The Marlins have added lefty Miguel Del Pozo to their 40-man roster. Miami is evidently interested in protecting the 25-year-old lefty from minor league free agency (and the Rule 5 draft). Del Pozo returned from Tommy John surgery this year and briefly reached Double-A for the first time. He spent most of the season at the High-A level, where he allowed only one earned run while striking out 17 and issuing five walks in 16 2/3 frames.
- Likewise, the Nationals moved young right-hander Wander Suero onto their 40-man. Fresh off of being named the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year, the 26-year-old could conceivably compete for a pen spot in Spring Training. He worked to a 2.48 ERA, with 9.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9, over 65 1/3 innings of pitching in the upper minors in 2017.
Nationals Hire Kevin Long As Hitting Coach
The Nationals have hired Kevin Long to become the team’s hitting coach, as Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post first reported on Twitter. He had most recently functioned in the same capacity for the division-rival Mets (and the Yankees before that).
Long was a candidate for the Nats’ and Mets’ open managerial positions, but both clubs went in different directions. It became clear once he missed out on running the dugout in Queens that Long would likely be destined for another organization.
There are a few preexisting ties between the Nationals and Long. His son, Jaron Long, pitches in the organization, for one. And current Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy flourished under Long’s tutelage in New York.
As Janes notes (Twitter link), the move means that previous Nationals hitting coach Rick Schu will be out of a job. He had held down the job since 2013.