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Nationals Release Chad Pinder

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The Nationals have released Chad Pinder, reports the Talk Nats blog (Twitter link). The veteran utilityman had been in the organization on a minor league contract. He’ll return to the open market in search of a new landing spot.

Pinder, 31, played parts of seven seasons with the A’s. The former second round draftee hit .242/.294/.417 in 553 games with Oakland. At his best, the right-handed hitter has compensated for middling on-base marks with decent power production. He’s topped double digits in homers on four separate occasions. The bulk of the damage has come against left-handed pitching, as Pinder carries a career .264/.322/.456 line when holding the platoon advantage.

While Pinder continued to hit lefties at an above-average clip last season, he slumped to a .218/.250/.341 slash while fanning nearly a third of the time versus right-handed arms. That limited him to minor league offers over the winter. Pinder first caught on with the Reds and spent Spring Training in the Cincinnati organization. He slumped to a .103/.167/.154 line in exhibition play and didn’t make the team. Pinder exercised an opt-out and quickly landed with Washington.

Pinder’s offensive struggles continued with the Nats’ top affiliate in Rochester. In 16 games, he hit .218/.308/.309. He walked at a quality 11.3% clip against a manageable 24.2% strikeout rate but only managed three extra-base hits (a homer and two doubles) in 62 trips to the plate.

Nationals Outright Anthony Banda

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The Nationals announced that left-hander Anthony Banda has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Rochester. The lefty had been designated for assignment by the club on the weekend.

Banda, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Nats in the offseason and made the club’s Opening Day roster. He threw seven innings over 10 appearances but with a disappointing 6.43 ERA. He combined a 17.1% strikeout rate with a 14.3% walk rate and 40.9% ground ball rate, with all three of those being worse than league average.

It’s a small sample but most of the lines moved in the wrong direction compared to last year, when Banda struck out 22.2% of opponents while walking 9.6%. In his big league career, he’s spent time with the Diamondbacks, Rays, Mets, Pirates, Blue Jays and Yankees before joining the Nationals this year. He has an overall ERA of 5.69 in 118 2/3 innings dating back to the 2017 season.

Banda has the right to reject this assignment and elect free agency on account of having been previously outrighted in his career, though it’s not clear at this time if he’s chosen to do so.

Nationals Sign José Ureña To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals have signed right-hander Jose Ureña to a minor league deal, per Bobby Blanco of MASNsports.com, relaying word from the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings.

Ureña, 31, was signed by the Rockies this winter, securing himself a $3.5MM guarantee in the form of a $3MM salary for this year and a $500K buyout on a $4MM club option for 2024. Unfortunately, he was torched for a 9.82 ERA in his first five starts, getting designated for assignment and then released. The Rockies will still be on the hook for the majority of that money. If Ureña eventually earns his way onto the Nats’ roster, they will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum, with that amount being subtracted from what the Rockies dish out.

The righty has some good seasons on his ledger, but they are a bit in the rearview mirror now. He posted an ERA under 4.00 with the Marlins in both 2017 and 2018 but has seen it finish north of 5.00 in each season since then. He’s bounced from the Marlins to the Tigers, Brewers and Rockies in that time. For his career, he has a 4.92 ERA, 15.4% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate.

The Nationals have a bit of rotation uncertainty right now, with Stephen Strasburg on the injured list with no return in sight, Cade Cavalli set to miss the entire season due to Tommy John surgery and Chad Kuhl recently hitting the IL due to a toe injury. That’s left them with a rotation consisting of Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Patrick Corbin, Trevor Williams and Jake Irvin. Gray, Gore and Williams are posting good results so far but Corbin has a 5.74 ERA and hasn’t been below 5.00 in a full season since 2019. Irvin is just making his major league debut tonight.

Ureña will head to Rochester to try to get into a good groove and perhaps get himself in line to get called the next time the club needs a starter. The Nats also have depth options on the 40-man roster in Cory Abbott, Paolo Espino and Joan Adon.

Nationals To Recall Jake Irvin For MLB Debut

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The Nationals are recalling right-hander Jake Irvin from Triple-A Rochester, manager Dave Martinez told the team’s beat (relayed by Andrew Golden of the Washington Post). He’ll start tomorrow evening’s game against the Cubs in what’ll be his big league debut. Washington optioned right-hander Cory Abbott to open a spot on the active roster.

Irvin, 26, has been in the organization for four-plus seasons. The Nats selected the Oklahoma product in the fourth round of the 2018 draft. The 6’6″ hurler has appeared towards the back half of the organization’s top 30 prospects since that point. Baseball America has slotted him between 10th and 23rd over the past four years, including the #22 placement last winter.

Keith Law of the Athletic slotted Irvin 11th in the system. Both Law and BA write that Irvin’s heater sits in the mid-90s. They each praise an above-average to plus curveball while raising questions about his changeup. Baseball America suggests he’s a likely back-of-the-rotation type, while Law feels he’s likelier to settle into a bullpen role.

The Nationals added Irvin to their 40-man roster last November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. That came on the heels of a 3.83 ERA showing in 24 starts between High-A Wilmington and Double-A Harrisburg. He logged five innings in big league Spring Training before being optioned to Rochester for his first Triple-A work. Irvin has taken the ball five times for the Red Wings, working to a 5.64 ERA across 22 2/3 innings. His 20.4% strikeout rate and 11.2% walk percentage are each a little worse than average.

Washington has a vacancy in the final rotation spot. The Nats placed Chad Kuhl on the 15-day injured list yesterday. While it initially seemed as if Abbott would take the fifth starting role, he pitched two innings of relief on Monday before being optioned back out. If Irvin can get out on a strong foot in his MLB career, he could vie for a back-end role behind Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Trevor Williams and Patrick Corbin. Kuhl had struggled prior to his IL stint, so his hold on a rotation job could be tenuous even once he recovers from the toe sprain that knocked him out of action.

Nationals, Tyler Danish Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals are signing reliever Tyler Danish to a minor league contract, reports the Talk Nats blog (Twitter link). He’ll be assigned to Triple-A Rochester.

Danish spent the 2022 campaign with the Red Sox. He appeared in 32 games and threw a personal-high 40 1/3 innings. He allowed 5.13 earned runs per nine innings, striking out a below-average 16.1% of opponents while issuing walks at a lofty 12.9% rate. He kept the ball on the ground at a better than average clip but nevertheless surrendered 1.56 home runs per nine.

Boston cut Danish loose at the end of last season. He latched on with the Yankees on a minor league deal over the winter. The former second round pick spent the spring in camp with New York but had a brutal few weeks. Opponents teed off for 19 runs on 18 hits (including five homers) in just six innings. The Yankees released Danish at the end of camp. After a month on the open market, he’ll get a fresh start with Washington.

The Nationals’ bullpen ranks 19th in the majors with a 4.38 ERA. They’re 28th with a 19.9% strikeout percentage but sit ninth with a 45% ground-ball rate. Danish brings a similar grounder-oriented profile to add some experience to the high minors. The 28-year-old has yet to qualify for arbitration and would be an affordable addition to the bullpen if he pitches well enough to earn an MLB spot. He’s out of minor league option years, so the Nats would have to keep him in the majors or designate him for assignment if he secures a big league call at any point.

Nationals Notes: Kuhl, Kieboom, Dickerson

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Prior to this evening’s game against the Cubs, the Nationals placed starter Chad Kuhl on the 15-day injured list. The placement is retroactive to April 30, ruling him out for the next two weeks. Cory Abbott was recalled from Triple-A Rochester to take the open active roster spot.

Kuhl told reporters he sprained the big toe on his right foot during Saturday’s appearance against Pittsburgh (relayed by Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). He stayed in the game and logged 3 2/3 innings but was tagged for eight runs. It was another rough appearance for the 30-year-old, who has allowed four-plus runs in four of five outings this year. He hasn’t gotten past five innings in any of his appearances.

All told, Kuhl lands on the shelf with a 9.41 ERA through his first 22 frames in a Washington uniform. He’s striking out a below-average 16.8% of opponents while walking a lofty 15% of batters faced and surrendering more than two home runs per nine innings. The offseason minor league signee will obviously have to perform better once he returns from the IL if he’s to hang onto his roster spot for the entire season.

The rebuilding Nationals enter play Monday with a 4.75 rotation ERA that ranks 18th in the majors. Young pitchers Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore are both faring well from a run prevention perspective, though Gore has walked an alarming 14.4% of opponents. Trevor Williams has provided a 4.10 ERA over 26 1/3 frames, while veterans Kuhl and Patrick Corbin have been hit hard.

Abbott seems likely to step into Kuhl’s rotation spot. The righty started nine of 16 big league outings last year and has opened all five of his appearances in Rochester this season. He carries a 6.46 ERA in spite of a strong 28.8% strikeout rate over 23 2/3 Triple-A innings.

The Nationals also provided reporters with injury updates on the position player side. Infielder Carter Kieboom is soon to report to Double-A Harrisburg for a rehab stint, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. That sets the stage for a forthcoming return to major league action, which’ll be Kieboom’s first MLB game time since 2021. The right-handed hitter missed all of last season with a forearm issue that eventually required Tommy John surgery; he’s been out for the first month of this year on account of a shoulder impingement. A former top prospect, Kieboom carries a career .197/.304/.285 batting line and is looking to establish himself as a potential long-term piece.

Outfielder Corey Dickerson landed on the IL with a strained left calf two games into the season. He’s further behind in his recovery. According to the MLB.com injury tracker, Dickerson has been throwing and swinging a bat but is not yet cleared to run. He signed a $2.25MM free agent deal over the winter to add a veteran left-handed bat to the corner outfield rotation.

Nationals Select Andres Machado

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The Nationals have selected the contract of right-hander Andres Machado, per a team announcement. To make room for Machado on the 40-man and active rosters, the club designated left-hander Anthony Banda for assignment.

Machado, 30, made his MLB debut with the Royals during the 2017 season. Machado struggled badly in his first taste of big league action, surrendering nine runs on 10 hits (two home runs) and three walks while striking out just one in 3 2/3 innings of work. After that disastrous debut, Machado wouldn’t return to the big leagues until he joined the Nationals in 2021. Machado has put up solid numbers for Washington since then, with a 3.41 ERA (117 ERA+) in 95 innings of work the past two seasons, though his 4.55 FIP leaves plenty of reason for caution.

Heading out in favor of Machado is Banda, a 29-year-old lefty currently in his seventh season in the majors. The journeyman has a 5.69 ERA in 118 2/3 innings of work during his career, during which he has played for seven different clubs. That includes what has been a very difficult stint in Washington during which Banda has allowed five runs in seven innings of work. Without Banda, the Nationals have no left-handed relievers in their bullpen, though Jose Ferrer and Matt Cronin are both on the 40-man roster as possible options down the road.

14 Veterans With Upcoming Opportunity To Opt Out Of Minor League Deals

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As part of last year’s collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a few automatic opt-out dates for some veteran players on minor league contracts. Article XX(B) free agents — players with over six years of MLB service who finished the preceding season on a big league roster — who sign minor league contracts more than ten days before Opening Day now receive three uniform chances to retest free agency if they’re not added to the majors.

The first comes five days before the start of the season. For players who pass on that initial opt-out, they have additional windows to explore the open market on both May 1 and June 1 if they’ve yet to secure a spot on the 40-man roster. As that second opt-out date nears, it’s worth checking in on a few players with opt-outs under the CBA. We’ll also look at a few players who don’t meet those criteria but reportedly negotiated forthcoming opt-out dates into their own non-roster deals.

Anderson was an Article XX(B) player who passed on his first opt-out chance. The 35-year-old finished last season with nine outings (seven starts) for the Reds, allowing a 6.38 ERA in 24 innings. He returned to the organization and has started five games for their top affiliate in Louisville. He carries a 4.30 ERA over 23 frames with a modest 19% strikeout rate while walking 13% of opposing hitters. It’s not a great first few weeks but the Reds don’t have much certainty behind their top three starters. Connor Overton is on the injured list, while Luis Cessa has been rocked for 20 runs in 16 2/3 innings.

Devenski also forewent his Spring Training opt-out. The 32-year-old accepted a season-opening assignment to Triple-A Salt Lake, where he’s made seven relief outings. In nine innings, he’s allowed four runs with nine strikeouts and three walks. It’s a decent if not overwhelming performance. Devenski was an elite multi-inning relief option for the Astros between 2016-17 but he’s battled injuries and performance fluctuations since then. He threw 14 2/3 MLB innings between the Diamondbacks and Phillies last year, allowing an 8.59 ERA with a modest 17.5% strikeout rate but only walking one of the 67 hitters he faced. The Angels have a number of relievers who can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, perhaps reducing their flexibility to add another player of that ilk in Devenski.

Doolittle bypassed an opt-out chance in Spring Training after returning to Washington over the winter. He’s spent the year on the injured list as he continues to work back from last summer’s internal brace UCL surgery. The veteran threw a live batting practice session this week and could see game action in the not too distant future (via MLB.com injury tracker). It stands to reason he’ll stick with the Nats.

Duffy has spent the season on the injured list. He’s working back from forearm issues that have prevented him from throwing a major league pitch since July 2021. He already passed on a Spring Training opt-out and seems likely to do so again.

Ortega built an April 29 opt-out date into the minor league deal he signed with the Rangers earlier this month. He’d spent the spring in camp with the Yankees but didn’t crack New York’s roster and retested the market. Since signing with Texas, he’s played 17 games for Triple-A Round Rock. He carries a middling .219/.324/.313 line with one homer through 74 plate appearances. He’s drawing plenty of walks but not hitting for power and striking out a little more often than he has in recent seasons.

The lefty-hitting outfielder is coming off a reasonable .241/.331/.358 showing for the Cubs in 2022. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots but is probably best suited for a corner. Texas has gotten strong early-season work from minor league signee Travis Jankowski and has Adolis García and Leody Taveras penciled into starting roles. The Rangers haven’t gotten much production from any of their left field options aside from Jankowski, though, and it’s questionable how long the journeyman can keep up anything approaching his current .340/.415/.447 pace.

Gamel, 31 next month, has been a decent left-handed platoon outfielder in recent seasons. He typically hits around a league average level, including a .232/.324/.369 line over 115 games with the Pirates last year. After signing with the Rays, he’s off to a .217/.316/.406 start in 79 plate appearances at Triple-A Durham. He’s walking at a customarily strong 12.7% clip but has gone down on strikes in more than 30% of his trips. Left-handed hitting outfielders Josh Lowe and Luke Raley have had excellent starts for Tampa Bay, which could make it hard for Gamel to play his way into the MLB mix anytime soon.

Hamilton, 32, returned for a second stint with the White Sox over the winter. He’s appeared in 14 games with Triple-A Charlotte but hasn’t produced, stumbling to a .150/.292/.175 batting line. The speedster has been successful on all three of his stolen base attempts but likely needs to show a little more at the plate to earn the pinch-running/defensive specialist role he’s played for a number of teams over the past four-plus seasons. The White Sox recently selected Adam Haseley onto the MLB roster to serve as a glove-first fourth outfielder.

Hoffman didn’t sign early enough to receive the automatic opt-out for Article XX(B) free agents. He negotiated opt-out chances on both May 1 and July 1 into his April deal with the Phils. The righty has pitched seven times for their top affiliate in Lehigh Valley, allowing eight runs across 7 2/3 innings. He’s punched out 13 hitters but handed out five free passes. Hoffman had a reasonable 3.83 ERA through 44 2/3 frames for the Reds last season, missing bats at a league average rate but walking nearly 12% of his opponents. The Phils only have three out of eight relievers who can’t be optioned to the minors, giving them some room to add the veteran if they’re intrigued by Hoffman’s swing-and-miss capabilities.

Naquin was an Article XX(B) free agent who didn’t break camp with the big league club. He split the 2022 campaign between the Reds and Mets, combining to hit .229/.282/.423 over 334 trips to the plate. The left-handed hitting outfielder has played in 12 games for Triple-A Nashville, hitting .273/.319/.409. He’s not hitting for much power in the early going and has never been one to take too many walks. Naquin spent a bit of time on the injured list this month but was reinstated earlier in the week.

Milwaukee lost center fielder Garrett Mitchell to a season-threatening shoulder procedure and has gotten middling offensive production from rookie outfielder Joey Wiemer. They’re soon to welcome Tyrone Taylor back from the injured list, though, and Naquin’s serviceable but unexceptional Triple-A production may not force the front office’s hand.

Rosenthal has had his last couple seasons washed away by injury. He lost 2021 to thoracic outlet syndrome and hip surgery, while his ’22 campaign was wiped out by hamstring and lat strains. The Tigers took a look at the one-time star closer in Spring Training and kept him in the organization with their highest affiliate in Toledo. Rosenthal pitched twice in the season’s first week before being placed on the minor league IL with a sprained throwing elbow. Jason Beck of MLB.com tweeted yesterday that Rosenthal is headed for physical therapy, suggesting he won’t be ready for game action in the near future.

Ross is recovering from last June’s Tommy John surgery and will spend most of the year on the injured list. He bypassed his first opt-out chance in March and seems likely to do the same next week.

Sánchez’s May 1 opt-out was built into his contract, as he didn’t sign early enough to receive the automatic opt-out under the CBA. The general expectation was that the veteran backstop would play his way onto the big league roster. That was particularly true once San Francisco lost Roberto Pérez to a season-ending shoulder injury. Sánchez hasn’t done anything to force the issue with Triple-A Sacramento, though.

He’s hitting a woeful .191/.350/.213 without a home run and a 25% strikeout rate over 13 games. Sánchez connected on 16 longballs in the majors for the Twins last year but only reached base at a .282 clip. There’s a path to playing time behind the dish at Oracle Park. Still, Sánchez’s early performance hasn’t been what the organization envisioned. Promoting him would lock in the prorated portion of a $4MM salary for this season, which could prove a disincentive for the club.

Sanchez served a depth role for Minnesota last season, logging 60 innings over 15 outings (ten starts). He was tagged for a 6.60 ERA at the MLB level but performed well enough in Triple-A the organization brought him back. He’s started five games with St. Paul this season, logging 22 1/3 innings. While his 2.42 ERA is excellent, it belies a middling 19.2% strikeout percentage and a huge 17.2% walk rate. Minnesota has quite a bit more rotation depth than they did last summer and would probably look to players already on the 40-man roster (i.e. Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland) before tabbing Sanchez if injuries necessitate.

Stammen suffered a capsule tear in his shoulder in Spring Training. The 39-year-old has spent the year on the injured list and has admitted the injury might unfortunately end his career.

Nationals Win Appellate Court Victory In MASN Dispute With Orioles

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There was a key development in the long-running battle between the Orioles and Nationals over local broadcasting fees this morning. The New York Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court, ruled in favor of the Nationals after a hearing on unpaid rights fees (full judgment transcript).

The Nationals and Orioles jointly own the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN), which carries local broadcasting rights for both clubs. The Baltimore organization has a majority share (presently around 76%, dropping to 67% by 2032). That came as part of the agreement between the Orioles and Major League Baseball to facilitate the relocation of the Expos from Montreal to Washington — into the Orioles’ territorial range — nearly two decades ago.

As part of that deal, the sides agreed to share telecasting money owed by MASN to the clubs for broadcasting rights. An arbitration panel was created to resolve possible disputes between the franchises in calculating those fees. After the sides failed to come to an agreement for the period covering 2012-16, the issue went to arbitration. The panel — a committee made up of representatives from three other MLB teams — ruled closer to the Nationals’ desired number than the Orioles had found appropriate (albeit nearer to the O’s proposed figure than Washington’s). Baltimore and MASN appealed, questioning the league’s impartiality.

A court found in the Nationals’ and league’s favor on that issue back in 2019. The court ruled the network owed the Nationals roughly $105MM in unpaid rights fees. The Orioles appealed that decision, which was finally resolved today.

The appellate court’s judgment was unanimously in favor of the Nationals on the issue of impartiality. The higher court agreed there were no grounds for contesting the arbitration panel’s findings. (Hayes Gardner of the Baltimore Sun notes the Orioles have the right to petition the U.S. Supreme Court for review but suggests it’s unlikely the Court would have any interest in hearing the appeal.)

While it’s certainly a win for the Nationals, the New York court’s judgment wasn’t an unequivocal end to the dispute. The appellate court found the lower court had overstepped its authority in awarding the $105MM in past damages. While the arbitration panel’s ruling is no longer in dispute (barring a seeming unlikely successful appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court), the organizations have to return to the table to sort out the extent and payment of MASN’s overdue rights fees pursuant to a separate provision of their contract.

Uncertainty about the MASN rights payments has been an ongoing issue for both franchises for over a decade. It was particularly troublesome over the offseason, as the Lerner family’s attempts to sell the Nationals have reportedly stalled in recognition of the local broadcasting dispute. Even with a key legal victory now in hand, the dispute doesn’t appear to be coming to a close anytime soon as the sides regroup to sort out how much money the network owes to the Nats. MLB has sought to broker a permanent settlement between the Nationals and Orioles to facilitate a potential sale of the Washington franchise but has thus far been unsuccessful.

2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

  • Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
  • Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
  • Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
  • Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
  • Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

  • Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
  • Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
  • Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
  • Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
  • Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
  • Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
  • Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.
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