NL Notes: Cease, Braves, Nationals, Hampson, D’Backs
The Braves are known to have trade interest in Dylan Cease, and given the team’s penchant for signing players to long-term extensions, locking up a Georgia native like Cease would seem like a logical next step if a deal can be worked out to obtain the righty from the White Sox. However, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal points out a possible obstacle — Cease is represented by Scott Boras, who traditionally advises his clients to test free agency rather than sign long-term extensions.
Enough high-profile Boras clients have signed extensions that this isn’t at all a hard-and-fast rule, since as Rosenthal notes, Boras will ultimately operate according to his client’s demands. But it is perhaps noteworthy for this particular scenario, since Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos rarely acquires Boras Corporations clients, even though both Anthopoulos and Boras have denied any lack of communication or lack of connection between the two sides. Trading for and extending Cease would be a way of putting this narrative to bed, though it remains to be seen if Atlanta will instead opt for another frontline pitcher besides Cease as the Braves continue to look for rotation help.
More from the National League…
- Not much has changed in the Lerner family’s attempts to sell the Nationals, as the search is now approaching two full years since news first broke of the Lerners’ explorations about a sale. The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes provides something of an update on the situation, though Ted Leonsis remains the top suitor but still seems unwilling to meet the Lerners’ desired price of around $2.4 billion. Leonsis’ last offer topped the $2 billion mark, but the Lerners don’t appear in any hurry to make a sale unless Leonsis or another bidder ups the ante. The seemingly neverending dispute with the Orioles about MASN broadcasting revenues also still remains a sticking point in any ownership discussions. In terms of how this translates to the on-field product, Janes notes that the Nationals’ low payroll has more to do with the team’s rebuild strategy than it does a concerted effort to cut costs in advance of a potential sale.
- The Diamondbacks had some interest in Garrett Hampson before the utilityman signed with the Royals earlier this week, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The versatile Hampton would’ve been a backup at several positions off the bench, and in particularly been a right-handed hitting complement to Alek Thomas or Geraldo Perdomo at center field or shortstop, respectively. Right-handed hitting is a priority for the D’Backs in general, and Piecoro suggests that J.D. Martinez might be a candidate for a return to Arizona, based off GM Mike Hazen’s recent comments about how the Diamondbacks could be open to a DH-centric player who swings from the right side. Arizona has already landed one notable right-handed bat this offseason in acquiring Eugenio Suarez from the Mariners.
- Sticking with the National League champs, the Diamondbacks named Shaun Larkin as their new director of player development earlier this week. Larkin has spent the last three seasons as the Dodgers‘ field coordinator as part of an eight-year tenure in L.A., and he previously had a long history as a minor league player, coach, and manager in Cleveland’s farm system. Larkin’s hiring is the latest move in a D’Backs offseason that has seen quite a bit of turnover in the front office and coaching ranks, though as Hazen told Piecoro, “we 100 percent expected it. This is what happens when you have a successful season….Bringing some outside perspectives into the organization in terms of what’s going on in scouting and player development around the game, I think is important.”
East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Rays
The Nationals finished the 2023 season with a 71-91 record that left them as one of the worst teams in the National League, even as it represented a substantial improvement over the club’s 107-loss 2022 campaign. While the club has sat out the top of the free agent market during the recent seasons of their rebuild, it seems that may not be the case this offseason as the club looks to upgrade at the infield corners and at DH, per TalkNats. The club has already been linked to a reunion with third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who was posting career-best numbers with the Nats prior to being dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline. The report suggests that the club has interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfield/DH slugger Jorge Soler in addition to Candelario. The report goes on to indicate that Washington has been “very active” in the starting pitching market to this point in the offseason, though it does not connect any specific names to the club.
The rumored targets make sense for the Nationals. The club has a major hole at third base given that former top prospect Carter Kieboom has failed to establish himself the big league level. Kieboom’s .207/.266/.368 slash line (70 wRC+) in 2023 was largely in line with his career numbers of .199/.297/.301 (65 wRC+), and Candelario or another third base addition would almost certainly represent a significant upgrade over the 26-year-old. Meanwhile, an addition at first base or DH could help the club improve an offense that currently figures to use journeyman Joey Meneses at one position without an established starter at the other.
As for the rotation, the club has several interesting young arms such as Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore that they figure to prioritize developing, with veterans such as Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams who can reliably eat innings. That being said, the Nationals’ starting staff posted a combined 5.02 ERA last season, the sixth-worst figure in the majors. What’s more, the club’s 5.30 FIP in the rotation was better than only the lowly Rockies, while their starting staff combined for just 4.9 fWAR, better than only Colorado and Oakland. That leaves plenty of room for improvement if the club decides to add even a lower-level free agent such as Matthew Boyd or Frankie Montas to its rotation, to say nothing of a more impactful addition.
More from around MLB’s East divisions…
- While the Mets have reportedly shifted their focus away from superstar free agent Shohei Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the club is still looking at potential impact additions this offseason. They’ve long been connected to top-of-the-market arm Yoshinobu Yamamoto as they explore potential rotation upgrades, and Heyman adds that the Mets are looking into “nearly every available frontline starter” in addition to Yamamoto, including southpaws Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez. While Heyman notes the club is unlikely to land a rental arm such as Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber on the trade market, he does suggest the club’s interest in rotation upgrades extends to White Sox starter Dylan Cease, who is under team control for the next two seasons and has seen plenty of trade buzz this offseason. Rotation upgrades make plenty of sense for New York after the club shipped out veteran aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline over the summer, leaving Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and newly-signed righty Luis Severino as the club’s only rotation locks entering 2024.
- The Rays have interest in a reunion with right-hander Cooper Criswell even after non-tendering him last month, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Criswell, 27, made his big league debut as a member of the Angels in 2021 with a one-game cup of coffee that lasted just 1 1/3 innings. He spent the past two seasons as a member of the Rays, with a 5.45 ERA and 5.00 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work across 11 appearances. While those numbers are certainly nothing to write home about, Criswell’s ability to go multiple innings and 46.8% career groundball rate at the big league level could make him a worthwhile depth addition for a Rays club that relied on 40 different pitchers throughout the 2023 campaign.
Pirates Claim Roddery Muñoz From Nationals
The Nationals announced that right-hander Roddery Muñoz was claimed off waivers by the Pirates and that left-hander Joe La Sorsa cleared outright waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Rochester. Washington’s 40-man roster is now at 38 and Pittsburgh’s is at 37.
Muñoz, 24 in April, came up as a prospect with Atlanta and got a spot on their 40-man roster a year ago to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He was designated for assignment in July and was claimed by the Nationals. Though he was recalled briefly by Atlanta in June, he has yet to make his major league debut, getting optioned back to the farm just a few days later.
Between the two clubs, he tossed 78 innings over 34 appearances with a 5.42 earned run average. He struck out 23% of batters faced but walked 15.1%. He was more impressive in 2022, tossing 100 1/3 innings with a 4.66 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate.
It appears the Bucs are intrigued enough to give him a roster spot. Muñoz still has a couple of options remaining, which will allow the Pirates to keep him in the minors without exposing him to waivers. Given his youth and minimal service time, he could be a long-term depth piece for the club, as long as he continues to justify his spot on the 40-man.
La Sorsa, 26 in April, just made his major league debut in 2023. He made two appearances for the Rays before getting claimed off waivers by the Nationals and getting into 23 more contests. Between those two clubs, he tossed 32 2/3 innings with a 4.41 ERA, 19.3% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 42.2% ground ball rate. By clearing waivers, he will provide the Nats will some non-roster depth.
National League Non-Tenders: 11/17/23
The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm CT. Here’s a rundown of fairly minor players on National League teams who have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month.
All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency without being placed on waivers. They’ll be eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 teams. It’s not uncommon to see non-tendered players almost immediately return to their previous organization on a minor league deal.
The transactions:
Latest Moves
- The Giants non-tendered pitchers Thomas Szapucki, José Cruz and Cole Waites, reports Maria Guardado of MLB.com (X link). None of that trio had been eligible for arbitration.
- No team had a higher percentage of non-tenders than the Braves, who cut seven players loose. As reported by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on X), they’re moving on from pitchers Yonny Chirinos, Kolby Allard, Penn Murfee, Angel Perdomo and Michael Tonkin, catcher Chadwick Tromp and infielder Luke Williams. Murfee and Perdomo were recently claimed off waivers.
- San Diego’s non-tenders are covered here.
Earlier
- The Reds have non-tendered relievers Derek Law and Reiver Sanmartin. Cincinnati also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of Nick Senzel.
- In addition to Rowdy Tellez and Brandon Woodruff, the Brewers have non-tendered right-hander J.C. Mejía. He failed a PED test in September, the second such result of his career, and was suspended for 162 games.
- Former Rookie of the Year winner Kyle Lewis was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks. He played in only 16 games after being acquired from the Mariners last offseason.
- The Cubs non-tendered relievers Ethan Roberts, Brandon Hughes and Codi Heuer. All three are recovering from surgeries.
- Right-hander Tommy Doyle was non-tendered by the Rockies. Colorado designated him for assignment when acquiring Cal Quantrill this morning.
- The Cardinals have non-tendered catcher Andrew Knizner, first baseman Juan Yepez and starting pitchers Jake Woodford and Dakota Hudson. St. Louis reportedly tried to deal Hudson this afternoon but evidently did not find a taker.
- The Mets have non-tendered relievers Jeff Brigham, Sam Coonrod and Trevor Gott. New York also cut loose infielder Luis Guillorme and confirmed the reported non-tender of Dan Vogelbach.
- Left-hander Josh Fleming was non-tendered by the Phillies, the team announced. Philadelphia just snagged the southpaw off waivers from the Rays a few weeks ago.
- The Marlins have non-tendered catcher Jacob Stallings and infielder Garrett Hampson, per a club announcement. Stallings spent two seasons as the primary catcher after being acquired from the Pirates at the 2021-22 offseason. Hampson signed a minor league deal with the Fish last season.
- The Pirates non-tendered Osvaldo Bido and Hunter Stratton, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Neither had yet been eligible for arbitration. Both right-handers made their big league debuts in 2023; Mackey suggests the Bucs will try to bring them back on minor league pacts.
- The Nationals announced they’ve non-tendered first baseman Dominic Smith and right-hander Cory Abbott. Both players were designated for assignment earlier in the week, making this an inevitability.
Nationals Showing Renewed Interest In Jeimer Candelario
The Nationals are among the teams that have shown interest in Jeimer Candelario this offseason, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Rogers also tied the free agent corner infielder to the Blue Jays, while a prior report suggested the Angels, D-Backs and Reds had checked in.
Of those teams, only Washington has employed Candelario before. The rebuilding Nats took a $5MM flier on the switch-hitter last offseason. Candelario had been non-tendered by the Tigers on the heels of a dismal 2022 season. He bounced back in D.C., hitting .258/.342/.481 over 99 games. Washington was able to flip him to the Cubs for prospects DJ Herz and Kevin Made, executing the kind of buy-low/midseason trade sequence that noncompetitive teams attempt each offseason.
Candelario didn’t quite maintain that form in Chicago. He hit .234/.318/.445 in 41 games as a Cub, finishing the season with a .251/.336/.471 batting line in 576 plate appearances. He connected on 22 home runs and 39 doubles with league average strikeout and walk rates. It was Candelario’s third above-average season in four years.
As a result, the 29-year-old (30 next Friday) is in a much better position for this free agent trip. He should secure at least a three-year pact and has a good case for four years. MLBTR predicts he’ll land a $70MM guarantee over four seasons, ranking him as the #5 position player in the free agent class.
Bringing Candelario back would obviously be a much more significant commitment for the Nats than it was 12 months ago. Washington has clear opportunity at third base yet again. After the Candelario deal, they turned to journeyman Ildemaro Vargas and former top prospect Carter Kieboom at the position. Washington third basemen hit .189/.247/.311 in 224 plate appearances from July 31 onward.
That’s an untenable situation even with the team still amidst a rebuild. Some kind of third base acquisition feels inevitable. While they could be another rebound candidate (e.g. Brian Anderson or non-tender possibility Nick Senzel), Candelario would be a clearer upgrade. General manager Mike Rizzo said last week the team was looking to add a middle-of-the-order lineup presence.
It doesn’t appear the Cubs have as strong an interest in a reunion. Rogers reports that Chicago looks unlikely to retain Candelario. They have third base questions of their own, with Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom and Miles Mastrobuoni among the in-house options. None of that group projects as an everyday player for a contender, but the Cubs could look to alternatives in free agency or trade. Matt Chapman is the top free agent at the position; J.D. Davis, Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez are among speculative trade possibilities.
Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Victor Robles, Tanner Rainey
The Nationals have avoided arbitration with outfielder Victor Robles and right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey, the team announced. Robles, 26, was eligible for his final year of arbitration, while Rainey, 30, will be arbitration-eligible one last time next winter.
Rainey will earn $1.5MM in 2024 (per Andrew Golden of The Washington Post), which doesn’t come as any surprise; he made the same salary this past season in a year almost completely lost to injury, and arbitration-eligible players rarely receive raises after lost seasons. No dollar value has been reported for Robles, although he was projected to earn $2.7MM in arbitration. The center fielder made $2.325MM last year, and the Nationals turned down a $3.3MM club option for his services in 2024. His new deal most likely falls somewhere in between those two figures.
Around the end of the regular season, Washington agreed to a contract with veteran utilityman Ildemaro Vargas, who was eligible for his second year of arbitration. The team now has four players who could still go to arbitration this winter: outfielder Lane Thomas, closer Kyle Finnegan, set-up man Hunter Harvey, and former top prospect Luis Garcia. The Nationals have already DFA’d several arb-eligible players ahead of the non-tender deadline on November 17, including first baseman Dominic Smith, right-handed reliever Victor Arano, and utility player Michael Chavis.
Nationals Designate Dominic Smith For Assignment
The Nationals announced Tuesday that they’ve designated first baseman Dominic Smith and right-hander Cory Abbott for assignment. Washington has also granted righty Andres Machado his release so that he can pursue an opportunity in Japan. That slate of moves clears space on the 40-man roster for lefties DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker as well as righties Cole Henry and Zach Brzykcy. That quartet of pitchers is now protected from next month’s Rule 5 Draft.
Smith, 28, was a first-round pick, longtime top prospect and (more briefly) a quality run producer for the division-rival Mets prior to being non-tendered in the 2022-23 offseason. From 2019-20, Smith treated the Mets to a stellar .299/.366/.571 batting line in 396 trips to the plate. He swatted 21 homers and connected on 31 doubles in that time before stumbling to a .643 OPS over his next two seasons and being cut loose. Smith’s lone year in D.C. brought about a rebound to some extent, as he turned in a .254/.326/.366 batting line with a dozen homers, but that wasn’t enough for the Nats to retain him and offer him a raise in arbitration.
Also 28 years old, Abbott has spent the past two seasons with the Nats. The former Cubs farmhand has logged 87 1/3 innings of 5.87 ERA ball in the Majors with Washington, fanning 21.3% of his opponents against an 11% walk rate. Abbott posted strong minor league numbers up through the Double-A level and once ranked as one of the Cubs’ more promising pitching prospects, but he’s now struggled in both Triple-A (5.46 ERA in parts of three seasons) and the big leagues. He’s out of minor league options as well, which could make it tough for another club to claim him.
Both Abbott and Smith will be traded or placed on waivers within the next week. Both can become free agents if they’re unclaimed.
As for Machado, he’ll start the next chapter of his career overseas — likely on a seven-figure guarantee that wouldn’t have been available to him in North American ball. He’s out of minor league options and not yet arbitration-eligible, so he was likely to lose his 40-man roster spot and spend next year trying to work his way back to the big leagues.
From 2021-22, Machado was a quietly solid member of the Washington bullpen, tallying 91 appearances and 95 innings of 3.41 ERA ball. He benefited from a .264 average on balls in play and had success in spite of pedestrian strikeout and walk rates of 18.3% and 9.9%, respectively.
Some degree of regression appeared in store, but perhaps not to the extent he saw in 2023 when he was torched for a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings despite marked improvements in his K-BB profile (20.8% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate). While Machado improved in terms of missing bats and limiting free passes (to say nothing of a 1 mph uptick in fastball velocity, to 96.7 mph on average), he also become staggeringly homer-prone; in 50 innings he served up 12 long balls — 2.34 homers per nine frames (and a home run on 24% of the fly-balls he yielded). He’ll take that plus velocity and improved command overseas, though it’s not yet clear precisely which team he’ll join.
All four of the prospects added to the Nationals’ 40-man roster today rank among their top 30 prospects at MLB.com. Herz is 22 years of age, while the others are all 24. Herz was the Cubs’ eighth-round pick in 2019 and came to the Nats by way of this summer’s Jeimer Candelario trade. He punched out nearly a third of his opponents while working as a starter in Double-A but also issued walks at almost a 14% clip. Injuries have plagued the career of Henry, a 2020 second-round pick with a potentially plus slider and plus-plus changeup. He pitched just 33 1/3 innings this past season. Similar to Herz, Parker is a lefty who missed bats in droves in the upper minors but did so with shaky command. Brzykcy is a bullpen prospect with a power fastball who missed the 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery.
Nationals Outright Jeremy De La Rosa, Matt Cronin
The Nationals announced that left-hander Matt Cronin and outfielder Jeremy De La Rosa have each cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Rochester. Cronin was designated for assignment earlier this week but De La Rosa wasn’t publicly known to be on waivers. This move drops the 40-man roster count to 39.
De La Rosa, 22 in January, was added to the club’s roster just under a year ago. He got that roster spot after mashing his way through 69 Single-A games in 2022, hitting 10 home runs and producing a batting line of .315/.394/.505 while also stealing 26 bases. A move up to High-A didn’t go so well, but the club nonetheless didn’t want to risk losing him in last year’s Rule 5 draft and put him on the 40-man.
Unfortunately, 2023 didn’t go nearly as well for him. He got into 93 games at High-A but only went deep seven times and struck out at a 33.7% clip, finishing with a line of .240/.324/.361. After those struggles, it seems the Nats bumped him off the roster and none of the other 29 clubs decided to grab him. He’ll stick in the Nationals’ organization but without occupying a spot on the 40-man.
Cronin, 26, got his roster spot at the same time as De La Rosa, protecting him from last year’s Rule 5 draft. He got that spot on the heels of a strong 2022 season, posting a 2.42 earned run average between Double-A and Triple-A. But this year, he made 14 Triple-A appearances with a 5.02 ERA before he underwent surgery for a herniated disc in his back. “For those that don’t know, I had been dealing with pain in my left shoulder/arm for the last 2 years but could never seem to find anything wrong with them,” Cronin said in an Instagram post in August. “That was up until about a month ago when we decided to have my spine checked out and found a large herniated disc at my C5-C6 level.”
Like De La Rosa, Cronin will stay in the organization but without taking up a roster spot. The current status of his back isn’t publicly known but he will presumably be working to return to the roster as soon as he’s able to.
Nationals Add Gerardo Parra, Chris Johnson To Coaching Staff
The Nationals announced their coaching staff for the 2024 season on Friday, confirming their previously reported hiring of bench coach Miguel Cairo and also revealing that former big leaguers Gerardo Parra and Chris Johnson will be on manager Davey Martinez’s staff next year. Parra, who played a key role with the Nationals in their World Series Championship 2019 season, will be the team’s first base coach. Johnson, who spent the 2023 season as an assistant hitting coach with the White Sox, will hold the same role in Washington.
Parra, 36, spent parts of a dozen seasons in the big leagues between the D-backs, Rockies, Nats, Brewers, Giants and Orioles in addition to one season with Japan’s Yomiuri Giants in 2020. He spent half the 2019 season with the Nats but played a significant role in their Cinderella run to a World Series title, operating as a key bench piece for Martinez and endearing himself both to the fanbase and in the clubhouse as a veteran leader. Parra famously co-opted “Baby Shark” as his walkup music and as a celebration/rallying cry for the Nats that year. He returned for a second stint with the Nats in ’21 before calling it quits as a player and joining the team’s front office as a special assistant.
Johnson, 39, retired as a player after the 2019 season. He spent parts of eight years in the Majors between Houston, Atlanta, Arizona, Cleveland and Miami, batting a combined .275/.313/.404 with 63 homers in just shy of 3000 plate appearances. His last contract was a minor league deal with the White Sox, who hired him as their Triple-A hitting coach prior to the 2021 season. He served in that role until joining the big league staff this past season. The Sox opted not to bring Johnson back for the 2024 campaign, with Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writing at season’s end that the team’s hitters were “torn between multiple hitting voices” on the team’s coaching staff. Presumably, Johnson’s philosophies better align with those of Coles — the veteran hitting coach who’ll be entering his third season with the Nationals.
Returning to the Nats’ staff in 2024 will be hitting coach Darnell Coles, pitching coach Jim Hickey, catching coach Henry Blanco and bullpen coach Ricky Bones. Ricky Gutierrez, who served as the team’s run prevention coordinator in 2023, will be the club’s new third base coach.
Nationals Hope To Add Pitching This Offseason
Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo spoke this week about the upcoming offseason, with Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relaying some the details. Rizzo stated that the club is looking to bolster both its starting and relief pitching, as well as mentioning a middle-of-the-order bat.
That the club is open to additions all over the roster is hardly surprising since they have been aggressively rebuilding for a while now. The past few years have seen Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Juan Soto and many others flipped for prospects, leading to the Nats finishing last in the National League East three years running. The 2023 club won 71 games, a jump of 16 from the dismal results of 2022, but there were also some less-encouraging signs. The club had a run differential of -145, second-worst in the National League, ahead of just the Rockies. They outpaced their expected win-loss record of 66-96 thanks to some help from a record of 28-21 in one-run games and a 6-2 mark in extra innings.
On the pitching side, the club had a collective earned run average of 5.02, a mark that topped just the Royals, Athletics and Rockies. The starting staff and the relief corps were equally ineffective, as both groups had matching ERAs at that 5.02 figure.
Stephen Strasburg is still on the roster, although he won’t be a factor going forward. It’s been known for some time that his battle with thoracic outlet syndrome isn’t going to allow him to compete at the major league level anymore. He and the Nats were discussing a retirement deal last year, even though his contract runs through 2026, but the club walked away and he was activated from the IL earlier week. Both Rizzo and Scott Boras, Strasburg’s agent, admit that the righty’s pitching days are done. “Medically, it’s going to be difficult to see him pitching again at the big league level,” Rizzo said, per Golden. “We understand where he’s at physically. We have understood it since last year, so that hasn’t changed.” While coming to some sort of agreement about his retirement would allow the club to free up a roster spot, that doesn’t seem imminent. “The roster spot is important,” Rizzo says. “But there’s certain rules and protocols that have to be met within the CBA to conclude these types of things when [players] are under contract.” He didn’t clarify which parts of the CBA are currently standing in the way of Strasburg’s retirement.
Without Strasburg, the rotation currently consists of Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams. Corbin hasn’t been terribly effective lately, with his strikeout rate having dropped in each of the past four years. But he will likely continue to hold a place based on his contract. He’s set to make $35MM next year, the final year of his deal. Since he’s a fairly reliable innings eater, the Nats will likely give him the ball every fifth day as they manage the workloads of their younger pitchers.
Gray had a 3.91 ERA last year but may have been lucky to do so. His 20.5% strikeout rate, 11.5% walk rate and 37.8% ground ball rate were all worse than league average. An 80.4% strand rate likely helped to keep some runs off the board, which is why he had a 4.93 FIP and 5.08 SIERA. Gore had better peripherals but allowed more home runs, leading to a 4.42 ERA. Both of them are still fairly young, Gray going into his age-26 campaign and Gore his age-25, and neither has reached arbitration yet. They will be in the rotation again next year as the Nats hope they take a step forward in 2024.
Williams signed a two-year deal with the Nats last offseason but the first season of that contract didn’t go especially well as he posted a 5.55 ERA over 30 starts. Similar to Corbin, he could serve an innings-eating role but the club is likely less committed to Williams. He’s only making $7MM in 2024 so his deal would be easier to walk away from. Irvin had a 4.61 ERA in 2023 with fairly uninspiring peripherals.
The Nats also have Joan Adon, Thaddeus Ward, Jackson Rutledge and Roddery Muñoz on the roster, though each of those guys is likely stuck in a depth role until they have better results. Given the current options, it’s fair to see how Rizzo could find room for an external addition or two.
It’s unclear who the Nats would target but they kept things fairly modest last year. Apart from the two-year contract for Williams, they stuck to one-year deals for bounceback candidates like Jeimer Candelario and Dominic Smith. If they set similar targets this winter, they could perhaps look to pitchers like Wade Miley, Martín Pérez, Kyle Gibson, Frankie Montas, Luis Severino and others.
On the bullpen side of things, there are plenty of arms available they could look to add, but it also sounds like subtraction is possible. Rizzo says other clubs have been asking about righties Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s not a surprise to hear that the two are drawing interest, both because of their strong results and because they also were in trade rumors at the deadline a few months back.
Both players stayed and Finnegan finished the year with a 3.76 ERA, racking up 28 saves in the process. Harvey’s ERA was almost a full run better at 2.82, striking out 28.5% of batters while notching 10 saves and 19 holds. The Nats don’t need to move either, since they are both controllable via arbitration through 2025. However, performance from relievers can be volatile and an injury can happen at any time. The Nats could open their next competitive window in the next two years but there would be some sense to flipping these guys for players that could be more meaningful pieces of that window.
As for the middle-of-the-order bat Rizzo referenced, there are plenty of options available, depending on how aggressive they are willing to be. First baseman Dominic Smith and third baseman Carter Kieboom are both non-tender candidates. If Smith were out of the picture, Joey Meneses could take on some extra first base time, or the club could look outside. In the outfield, Lane Thomas is coming off a solid season but did most of his damage against lefties. Stone Garrett also had a good year but finished it on the injured list due to a fractured leg. Victor Robles is coming off another frustrating season.
If the Nats wanted to make a splash, they could target players like Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Rhys Hoskins, but other options include Tommy Pham, Jason Heyward, Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson.