Phillies Eyeing Cain, Blanton

Wow, I cant help but think what could have been if the Hideki Matsui/Matt Cain trade actually went down.

"Wow, I cant help but think what could have been if the Hideki Matsui/Matt Cain trade actually went down."

Shitt where the hell was I when this trad almost happened? I seriously doubt that at any point the Giants considered moving Cain for HIdeki Matsui. I believe I recall hearing a trade similar to it, something along the lines of Jonathan Sanchez for Matsui, but there is just no way the deal included Cain.

This is a deal that would require all three of the phils top prospects. Because remember the Giants don't need to deal young players. They need to get rid of old guys.

See the problem is that one of Philadelphia's best prospects is a catcher, Lou Marson, and the Giants have sort of committed to a long term catcher that should be up fairly soon in Buster Posey.

There are two possible scenarios in which I could see this happening, but honestly I would be shocked if either happened.

The more ilkely one would be the Phillies essentially send their farm system, Carrasco, Cardenas and Golson, to the Giants.

The other one is Ryan Howard. Couldn't the Phillies possibly be interested in moving Howard since you know he's gonna be looking for big money when he hits free agency? What better way to maximize his value than trading him for a young stud. Even though Cain is probably more valuable, an offer of Howard and say, Josh Outman, should be able to get it done. Then the Giants would have an elite middle of the order hitter, something they lack. Obviously this type of deal is extremely unlikely, I'm just saying that from a certain standpoint it could make sense.

PhilsPhan -

The Gmen have about 4 high quality SP prospects who will be up before alderson.

Madason Bumgarner (not even 19 yet and DOMINATING in low a) 9-3, 1.79 ERA, 95 IP, 80 H, 16 BB/104 K

If you can get past the name and just look at the numbers... it's pretty staggering...

I guess I need to play some devil's advocate. Say what you want about his run support, but Matt Cain is 27-36 career with a 3.80 ERA, and 493 SO in 593 IP. On the same team, a younger Lincecum is 18-7 3.33 ERA and 285 SO in 276 IP. I know I will hear it for this, but what are the chances Matt Cain's ceiling isnt going to be reached? If the Phil's offered Carrasco and Victorino the Giants should take it. There was a time when the same could be said about Todd Van Poppel, sometimes guys arent as good as they 'should' be.

Cain would have to bring back at least two premium hitting prospects to make that deal worthwhile for the Giants. The Phils don't have anything remotely like that to offer. The best match for that kind of deal, in terms of talent and reason to do it, would be the hated Dodgers.

The Dodgers have the talent to get a Cain deal done. Matt Kemp would obviously need to be there, along with one more position player and a pitching prospect. L.A. won't part with Clayton Kershaw, but they would move Matt Kemp in the right deal. Pair up Kemp with Andy LaRoche and a good low-minors arm and the deal gets done. If LaRoche isn't available, Kemp along with James McDonald and either Blake DeWitt or Chin-Lung Hu
might just be enough.

HypnoToad, say what you want about a pitcher's record, but you need runs from your offense in order to win. I agree that there's a VERY good chance his ceiling won't be reached. But, he is younger than Lincecum. Look at the way CC Sabathia progressed his first 4 years in the majors. He only posted an ERA below 4 once in those first 4 years. And now look at him. Writing off Matt Cain as a Todd Van Poppel would be pretty premature I think.

"Writing off Matt Cain as a Todd Van Poppel would be pretty premature I think."

Writing off Matt Cain as a TVP would be ludicrous. Cain has already proven to be an above average starter in the majors, while Van Poppel never did anything. Cain has already accomplished more than Todd Van Poppel. At this point you need to be scared that Matt Cain is the next Steve Avery. Which I don't think he is.

PhilsPhan,

You forgot Lou Marson-Catcher(AA)
Jason Donald SS/2B/3B (AA)

Marson would be at about the top of the list and Donald is a guy who will be likely called up after the Olympics.

There is NO way the Giants trade Cain to the Bums. Plus that package you offered SUCKS!!! One scout called Matt Kemp a Basketball player playing baseball. I have to agree with that because 9 HR's with 51 drivin in in 389 AB's doesn't really put him at the top of the future stars list. I would only trade Matt Cain to the Mets for David Wright. I know it doesn't make sense for the Mets. But thats who the Giants need to get in order to trade future CY Young Winner Matt Cain.

Does Matt Cain have the same value as Lincecum or something? It comes to Giant fans really overvaluing their players which is what a lot of homers do, but Cain is probably where Brett Myers was at when Myers was 23. Keep that in mind when players hardly ever reach their ceiling. Cain is a solid pitcher and will never be an ace. If the Phillies were smart they wouldn't overspend for a guy like Cain and go after a veteran like Blanton, Burnett, or Randy Wolf. Cain has never proven anything and not saying Carrasco has, but his stuff is just as explosive and he's younger. His ceiling is much more higher than Cain. Blanton might take too much to get because Billy Beane overvalues his players apparently more than Giant fans. But if they're close i imagine its oonly going to take maybe a Cardenas to get it done which is fine with me. It's not like Blanton or Burnett do not have stuff. They have really good stuff with a bad situation. GIllick will not trade Golson or Marson. If they do trade Carrasco, it will be at high value. I still like Randy Wolf because he won't cost anything really and the guy can control a game.

Cobweb, don't ever compare Matt Cain to CC again.lol. plain dumb. He's not even near that level.

Phillies will not trade Ryan Howard before the end of the season. They shouldn't ever trade him but it could happene before the start of next season. Prince does have more value but only because he's alot younger but no1 in the majors can mash like Howard. The man bat 220 and leads the league in homeruns and RBI's. Just imagine when he gets going what he's capable of. But if the Phils ever do trade Howard they will want a deal similar to Danny Haren's or Johan and deservingly so.

I completely agree with scribbletone...if the Giants are offered a package like what scribbletone mentioned, then the Giants should accept that. And it's never a bad thing to have more than one really good prospect at the same position.

"Cobweb, don't ever compare Matt Cain to CC again.lol. plain dumb. He's not even near that level."

Just for S&G's, look at CC's numbers when he was 23/24... pretty similar to cain..

11-10, 4.12 era, 1.32 whip, 139k 188ip...

it's not that much of a reach

0% chance Phillies trade Howard mid-season. Only a slightly better chance they would do it in the offseason.

I also don't see how the Phillies would be adding pieces along with Howard in a potential Cain deal. It would be the other way around.

When you get over the Ks, Howard is the premiere left handed power bat in the game, hands down. He has had basically no home/road split discrepancy in his career (a slight one this year but mostly due to him getting white hot on the recent homestand). He's also controllable through 2010.

Cain's a big arm, but he's more potential and stuff than performance at this point. Let me know when he has a winning season

yeah but CC wins games for you... Throw the numbers out. CC dominates.

GreatOne, Cain's ceiling is much, much higher than Carrasco's. Cain's a guy who's been talked about as a legit Cy Young candidate, while Carrasco's described as a likely solid #3 starter, maybe a #2.

Joe505, I agree that a Giants/Dodgers blockbuster is unlikely given the teams' history. But the talent's there, especially if Kemp and LaRoche were both in the deal. There's no way the Giants can get an established player on Wright's level in a deal. Besides, a team that's rebuilding doesn't grab a single, pricey player - they need multiple young guys they have under team control for several years.

"But if the Phils ever do trade Howard they will want a deal similar to Danny Haren's or Johan and deservingly so."

Why would you compare Ryan Howard to Haren or Santana? What the hell do those aces have to do with a 28 year old all or nothing hitter? Howard is the ULTIMATE THREE OUTCOMES PLAYER. He either homers, walks or K's. Thats all he's got. And listen, I realize that walks and homers are astoundingly valuable while K's don't mean all that much, but there is just no way that this guy is worth more than Tex or Miggy Cabrera.

"Does Matt Cain have the same value as Lincecum or something? It comes to Giant fans really overvaluing their players which is what a lot of homers do, but Cain is probably where Brett Myers was at when Myers was 23. Keep that in mind when players hardly ever reach their ceiling. Cain is a solid pitcher and will never be an ace. If the Phillies were smart they wouldn't overspend for a guy like Cain and go after a veteran like Blanton, Burnett, or Randy Wolf. Cain has never proven anything and not saying Carrasco has, but his stuff is just as explosive and he's younger. His ceiling is much more higher than Cain."

Uhh what does Tim Lincecum's trade value have to do with Matt Cain's trade value? Please can people stop acting ilke Matt Cain is another young pitching prospect coming out of AA. This is his THIRD full year of starting in the majors, and he's shown a decent amount of ace ability thus far. He may not ever be what Lincecum appears to be, but this guy should be a good #2 for a pretty long time. You say that Cain may never reach his ceiling, but the guy had a 3.65 ERA last year? He's already a pretty damn good pitcher as is. Right now he's probably a very good #3, so you gotta admit that by the time he's 25 or 26 you would think he'd be a #2 or so. People were saying this guy was gonna be an elite starter when he came up three years ago, so this is pretty much his toned down potential.

GreatOne, even an ace can't win if his team never scores for him. CC had lineups behind him that could outhit your average little league team - hell, CC would probably bat cleanup on the Giants today.

I imagine CC had much better run support. Cain has had some of the worst run support of the past two years...how do you win games without runs? Does CC have some magical dust he sprinkles over himself that somehow garners him more runs than Cain? If you think wins are directly related to a pitchers ability then you're sadly mistaken. It's VERY VERY dependent on the offense you play for.

Scribbletone right now Howard is definitely worth more than Tex, even 2007 Tex that moved to ATL.

He's a cut above in terms of production and controllable for 2.5 seasons.

People assume his numbers are inflated by CBP but they haven't been. Check out the stats. The guy is just a monster in any park. Never had a season with more home runs at home than on the road

Some of the numbers look ugly now with BA and K, but his current BABIP is .271 (career LOW .328). He's due for an uptick second half.

Here's his 3-year post ASB split by the way: .311/.433/.654 in 788 ABs

It looks like Cain's only getting worse. You guys are all talkin about his ceiling but why are his numbers up this year with a 5-7 record in a pitcher friendly park? Like what? I'm saying Cain will be a solid 2 or 3 but imagine if he didn't pitch in that park and if he has potential to be an ace why for the number inflation if he's only supposed to progress.

Ryan Howard is an all or nothing Hitter that makes everyone else better in the lineup. Utley sees pitches because Howard's in back of him and Burrell has good numbers because they just intentionally walked Howard. Like make sense. One swing of the bat and he changes games. But he is nowhere near what he is playing this year. He's a 270 hitter with about 50 HR's EVery year. It's funny though that in this big slump he still leads the league in RBI's and HR's. you're insane.

"It looks like Cain's only getting worse."

you guys talk like his numbers have been in steady decline for the past 5 seasons... HE"S BEEN IN THE LEAGUE FOR TWO AND A HALF SEASONS PEOPLE!!!!

You could have said CC was only getting worse a few years back when he posted an ERA above 4 after he had just posted an ERA below 4 the previous year. greatone, your arguments fail when you use dependent statistics such as wins and rbi. Cain is 5th in the league in K and 7th in IP. That's pretty solid. Yes, his walks are too high, but his K/BB ratio has improved this year which is a good sign. He's also known as a 2nd half pitcher so we'll see where he's at at the end of the year instead of rashly signing him off as a bust...which would be really stupid.

I'm not saying Cain's a bust but let's not make him the greatest pitcher ever just yet either. I'm not saying Cain's getting worse. I just said he's having a downyear so far and could continue the trend. Sabathia bounced back. and this is the last time i mention cain in the same breath as Sabathia.

This whole conversation is just getting astonishly dumb. Young pitchers are impossible to predict. We could sit here for days coming up with examples of young guys that blew up and became monsters and young guys that fell apart and now work at a car dealership. Cain could be the next Sabathia, or he could be the next Steve Avery. Nobody knows, and few have legitimate arguments for either side. I'm just simply done with this.

"CC had 54 wins by the age of 24...Cain...25...see ya later buddy."

Oh God you are stupid. Wins? You're really to compare two pitchers based on wins?

Cain has been doing what nearly every prospect doesn't do. Perform at an above average clip in the majors over a substantial period of time.

Not to mention he's doing it with a pitiful team around him.

Cain 2006 pre-break: 7.9 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.
Cain 2007 pre-break: 6.7 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9.
Cain 2008 pre-break: 8.6 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9.

How is Matt Cain not improving? His pre-break BB/9 have decreased 3 straight years and his K/9 are at a high. And he was better post-break in both 2006 (9.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9) and 2007 (8.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9) that he was before the break.

I expect big things from Cain post-break 2008 and he has been steadily improving.

Feel free to continue citing dubious stats like ERA and wins though. You show your own ignorance. Also feel free to not cite any scouting reports from BA, BP, or another source in comparing a pitcher's ceiling with other pitchers. You show your own ignorance.

Has anyone said Cain is Hamels or Lincecum? Neither of those pitchers would ever be traded, and no one is saying their value is similar to Cain's.

I don't understand this logic at all. Are you simply going to name better pitchers than Cain in order to prove he's worth whatever junk package you'd want to offer for him?

The guy hasn't even hit what's universally considered to be his prime. His important stats, not era or wins, are trending upwards even though he's surrounded by a horrible team.

All the signs point toward Cain continuing to improve, and he's already a good pitcher. Not to mention he's 4 years younger than your comparable, Myers.

i'm just saying that while you say that he could continue to trend upward. the possibility exists that it could go the other way. Its called SELLING HIGH. If the Giants were smart and had as good or better pitchers in their farm they'd consider dealing him. I'd give them Cardenas, Golson, Donald and Carrasco. That should be enough.

PEOPLE!!

Stop comparing Cain by how many wins he has!!!

When your offense scores Zero or One run, Not even CY YOUNG would get a lot of wins!!!

They were disappointments in a dumb column about grading the Futures Game. Great sample size of 2 ABs each. I'm sure that terminally murders their value....

Things have never been better set up for a trade between the Dodgers and the Giants, because Coletti went from the Giants to the Bums and he and Sabean still talk on the phone.

ha ha. I love mets fans chiming in. You reference Keith Law? is there any more mets HOMER than him? I think either he has a serious man crush on David Wright or David's got some "pictures" of KLAW, if you know what i mean. And as for Mets Prospects, the phils prospects blow away the mets any day of the week. All you have is Martinez who's wallowing away in AA. Trust me, you'd better keep trying to buy a championship because that's the only way you're getting one. Don't you have a bunion of El Duque's to check out or have to massage Pedro's hammy?

well I find it hard to believe that they could land either Cain or Blanton with out giving up 3 or their top 5 prospects in the deal .

When they asked about CC they wouldn't trade any of their top 5 prospects in the deal period .

I would think that to gey Cain they would have to start the package with Carrasco & Cardenas and a couple other lower prospects .

Blanton I would think will take 1 of their top 3 prospects and 2 lower prospects.

Pitcher Wins? Someone was using the stat from the 1800's called pitcher W-L in an argument about how good a pitcher was? Really? 90 year olds post on here now?

Wow.

So, are you saying when Peavy had his year with an ERA over 4 he lost his stud status? Petco is the poster boy for pitcher's parks.

please tell me you're not comparing Peavy to Cain? I'm gonna bypass that one and NO, Peavy had proven himself for 3 solid years prior to a blip on the screen in 2006 and since has been great.

I'll make you a deal. Cain pitches the next 2 years with a sub 3.5 ERA then I'll consider him a MINI-stud, OK?

Here's my Phillies proposal for Cain, which I think would at least get the Giants' attention:

Cardenas- best bat in the system, good OPB, good speed, developing power. Cracked BA top 20 in recent midseason list. Without a development setback could be MLB ready 2010 at 2B

Donald- pretty polished 2B/SS prospect, good OPB in AA, good glove, could be ready 2009

Golson- raw and toolsy, bad plate discipline but has power, speed and D, could be ready 2010 in any OF spot

D'Arnaud- steadily improving but very young catching prospect. Arrival TBA at this point

That's three realistic position player starters for SF in 2010 and an intriguing A ball guy. No blue chip, ML ready hitter like a LaPorta but still quality IMO

They don't need D'Arnaud, they have Buster Posey. Having some insurance for him is always good, of course.

D'Arnaud and Buster Posey wouldn't have much to do with each other, Travis just turned 20 and is in low A. The Giants wouldn't be turned off towards him just because they drafted a fast-track catcher, he'd still have intrinsic value

PhilsWSchamps I cannot tell if you're simply a confused homer or legitmately mentally deficient

Would you mind clarifying?

I think Blanton is a decent pick up for any team that has good run support.

Matt Cain in my opinion has the stuff to win a CY Young. I think that the horrible run support provided in San Fran has brought his talent to something of a stand still. If Cain were traded somewhere with bats than I could see him winning 20 games. Honestly the kid is awesome, and he is very good with no real support. Any team should try to get Cain, if I were the Rays I would package some talent (except for Price) and snag Cain and own the division. If I were the Red Sox I would send Masterson, and some mid levels to try to pry him away.

HAHAHA...No Cain for you.

Enjoy Blanton Philly.

three unnamed prospects. i'm anxious to see the names.

After a few minutes I do know how to feel about it. I really, really don't like this.

The team finally makes a move and it's something like this. Go figure.