More Rosenthal: Furcal, Dunn, Yankees, Mets

Hughes and Kennedy have been very impressive in the minors, I could see them both up for September.

I can't see the Dodgers re-signing Furcal. He's been hurt in every year of his 3-year deal. As long as LA is stuck with Juan Pierre, they've got a lead-off hitter. Maybe the Dodgers should revisit talks with Pittsburgh about Jack Wilson.

"As long as LA is stuck with Juan Pierre, they've got a lead-off hitter."

Speed =/= lead-off hitter. OBP = lead-off hitter. Juan Pierre is useless outside of pinch running and pinch bunting.

"Speed =/= lead-off hitter. OBP = lead-off hitter. Juan Pierre is useless outside of pinch running and pinch bunting."

Pierre is making a lot of money and he isn't going anywhere. Why overspend on Furcal? What do the Dodgers need? A power hitter. Ned Coletti (assuming he is still the GM next year) knows he needs a "big bat". If the Dodgers are going to overspend again, then they need to fill their needs. Don't forget, Jeff Kent's contract is ending, so they will need to fill that void as well.

I wonder if the Dodgers will try to trade for Garret Atkins in the offseason. In the past they didn't becasue they had Andy LaRoche. But now that he's gone, they have no one for 3B. They can't see Blake DeWitt as an option. Maybe as a 2B, but not as a 3B. He doesn't got the power. Either a trade like that or they could sign Joe Crede.

Everyone here in Baltimore is creaming and fawning all of our hometown boy Mark Teixeira, but I would much rather us spend the money on Dunn. With Millar heading out, and the possibility of Huff playing 3rd (he can't be that much worse than Mora), having Dunn at 1B/DH would be great. Big T will cost way too much money and years, but Dunn will come cheaper.

"Speed =/= lead-off hitter. OBP = lead-off hitter."

Meh. Speed + Contact + OBP = Lead off hitter. Kurt Suzuki is not a better lead off hitter than Juan Pierre, no matter what the Beane-Heads want to think. Not to say Pierre is a great lead off man either. Pierre is actually much better suited to being a number 9 hitter in the AL.

"He's been hurt in every year of his 3-year deal."

Incorrect. He was not hurt in 2006 and had a monster year.

"A power hitter. Ned Coletti (assuming he is still the GM next year) knows he needs a "big bat"."

A healthy Furcal means 15 HR, 40 2B and 40 SB. That is plenty of production. Plus, if Manny is serious about staying and Kemp keeps developing (which I see happening even faster with Ramirez to learn from), they will have zero need for a "big bat"

Pierre's 2006 was a "monster year"?! .292/.330/.388 at the plate, 58-for-78 SB (74.3%, pretty much right at the break-even point for SB success). Worth starting? For the 2006 Cubs, absolutely. But on the Dodgers' current roster, there is no way he should be in their (or, in fact, anybody's) starting lineup. His power, always limited, has dwindled to nothing this year (1 extra-base hit every 32.6 plate appearances, compared with 1 XBH every 22.8 PA in 2007 and 1 every 16.7 PA in 2006). His OBP is lower than either of the guys he'd be displacing in the lineup (.326; Kemp .347; Ethier .339). And it's not like Kemp can't run (26 SB, 8 CS so far this year, compared to 37 SB, 7 CS for Pierre).

That said, none of their outfielders should be batting leadoff, not while Russell Martin (.296/.391/.424, 10-for-15 SB; 21 SB last year) is in the lineup. I wouldn't hold my breath for Joe Torre to do anything that "innovative" anytime soon, though.

What would LA do with Manny next year? Pierre, Either, Kemp & Jones are already in the OF. Can Manny play 3B?

ColonelTom, AA was talking about Furcal having a huge '06 in regards to your statement that Furcal has been injured in each of his 3 years in LA.

AA,

Contact is not necessary for a leadoff hitter in the NL. It's about the most useless position to worry about contact since it's the position where it's least likely that a batter will need to move a runner along.

Furcal wants to come back. The dirtiest word in baseball is the so-called "hometown discount", which never seems to pan out in the end (especially if Scott Boras is around), but I think if both Furcal & Manny can somewhat "conspire" to hang for 2-3 years, it can potentially be mind-blowing. Jones? Only way he comes back with any shade of being somewhat productive is to accept a minor league assignment NOW as sggested by Bill Shanklin, among others.

Not my statement on Furcal's injuries, but my bad for mistaking the response as about Pierre and not Furcal.

Regarding Furcal, his 2006 performance isn't that out of line with his other seasons - just a few more singles dropping in to raise the average to .300. He's worth signing if you're paying for his career averages (.285/.350/.420), but if the starting point for negotiations upward is this year's $14M salary, the Dodgers might want to steer clear.

Edgar Renteria might be a great choice for a one-year make-good deal after this year's debacle, though after signing Andruw to a similar - and disastrous - 2-year deal last offseason, I doubt the Dodgers will have the stomach for that gamble.

"Regarding Furcal, his 2006 performance isn't that out of line with his other seasons - just a few more singles dropping in to raise the average to .300."

Highest SLG, second highest OBP, highest AVG, tied for most HR...

"That said, none of their outfielders should be batting leadoff, not while Russell Martin (.296/.391/.424, 10-for-15 SB; 21 SB last year) is in the lineup."

Martin's bat is too valuable in the spot he is in. His bat speed, contact hitting and the like make him much more valuable driving in runs. I do think he would make an excellent lead off man, but he is even more valuable driving Kemp in.

The reality is that Kemp thrived in the lead off role because it forced him to have better ABs. In fact, his best numbers in all areas have come from that spot at the following:

.318 .402 .529

Those are numbers that rival Manny's this year and create plenty of chances for Martin and Manny to drive him in. With Kemp's speed, you lose nothing from having Pierre (or Furcal for that matter), and you gain power.

What the Dodgers' lineup should be is as follows:

Against RHP:

Kemp
Ethier
Martin
Ramirez
Loney
Kent
Nomar if Healthy/Blake
Blake if Nomar/Berroa
Pitcher

Against LHP:
Kemp
Pierre (Kemp steals 2B, bunted or slapped over by Pierre)
Martin
Ramirez
Nomar if Healthy/Kent
Loney
Kent if Nomar/Blake
Blake if Nomar/Berroa
Pitcher

[Furcal 2006] Highest SLG, second highest OBP, highest AVG, tied for most HR...

The difference from, say, 2005 (a typical Furcal season) to 2006 was almost 100% singles:

2005: .284/.348/.429
2006: .300/.369/.445
--------------------
diff: .016/.021/.016

Furcal's hit percentage on balls in play was 33% in 2006 (according to Ron Shandler's numbers); it's been right around 30% throughout the rest of his career. Point being that 2006 isn't the baseline, it's an outlier, and the Dodgers should remember that when they're negotiating this offseason.