Olney: Young Starters On Trade Market

Oh yeah. Oliver Perez version 2.0.

Padres for sure need to at least entertain offers for peavy. They could bring in a bunch of mlb ready prospects, lower payroll, and stock up their minor league system.

Lot's of teams would love to get in on Peavy but probably very few teams have the kind of prospects it would take to get him. I could see the Brewers making a run at him since he's cost controlled, if not cheap, and their farm system is loaded with prospects.

Can't wait to hear all the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets fans weigh in with what they think they have to offer the Pads. How about Joba's used jock and Melky for Peavy?

I don't know, but if they're as stated expecting 6 prospects and major ones at that, they're asking a little too much...Not many teams can take that plunge...

I know the Braves for example would be out as we've already stated that we're not trading our better chips this winter...

That being said, who wouldn't want to have Peavy in their rotation?

I just don't see them getting that much unless one of the upper echelon teams w/ an unlimited budget decides to grab him...(then again those teams don't have farm systems)

For Peavy its going to cost a bunch in the way of prospects, there is no doubt about it. I could see a deal with the Yankees for the Padres side, but the Yanks would never do it. It would have to involve Joba+Jackson and then some.

But in truth i think that no team would be willing to surrender the kind of package that it would take, its basically Peavy for 5 years at 81 million. Compare that to Santana for 5 years at 113 million. So basically at team would have to give up 6 of its top ten prospects to acquire Peavy and maybe more. Thats a price a lot of teams cant/wont do.

my cubs will give Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, and Sean Gallagher for Peavy and Heath Bell. Oh wait, that was a Brian Roberts rumor :). You know every big market club will throw out a hundred stupid offers involving Cano, et all and trash but expect to get the best reliever on the Pads in the deal.

I think Peavy has stated that he wants to stay in the NL/ That only leaves a very limited number of teams. The Mets, the Phillies and the Cubs have no farm system with enough prospects, and I doubt the Padres would trade him within the NL West. Who's left? The Brewers? The Braves? The Cards?

Peavy has no say in where he'd be traded to and I'm not kidding when I say it would take a gargantuan offer to move him. Peavy's still very low cost (even for the Pads) and the team doesn't appear to want to get into the FA market (big surprise). With a young team and only a few big contracts (his, AGonzalez, Giles, Hoffman) they could keep them all and hold on for another year.

Boston COULD acquire Peavy but it would take ALOT to pry him loose. Lester would have to be in there, without exception, and the Pads would still want some major league player.

Colt
Hamilton would be awesome to acquire but why would they do that? Seriously he's a fan favorite and such a great ambassador for the Rangers. Still that would mean you would only have to throw maybe two other players (Cruz and some other lower level prospect).

"Peavy has no say in where he'd be traded to"

No-trade clause

I'm torn on Peavy.

He signed for under market value. However, in 2010 his paycheck is still substantial. Sure you might save $5-7m/year compared to what he would fetch on the open market.

Is a cash savings of $5-7m x 4 years worth 6 top prospects? For some teams, absolutely. For others signing Sabathia makes much more sense.

Haren and Robertson were traded to the D Bags for 6 prospects, not a straight Haren for 6

But only one team can sign Sabathia, so for teams like the Braves, Rays and Rangers, Peavy could be a plausible alternative.

The Braves could offer a package built around Jason Heyward, although I'm not sure thats the best route for them to take.

The Rays could get it done, but I'm sure they would only be willing to give up guys that aren't on the major league club already, so likely the Pads would have to take a package with guys like Reid Brignac, Wade Davis and Desmond Jennings, not that that would be a bad offer.

The Rangers are one of the few teams that could just totally overwhelm the Padres with an offer, but I'm not sure they should. With a young core of hitters that includes Kinsler, Hamilton, Ramirez, Teagarden, Davis, Saltalamacchia, Murphy, Andrus, Beltre, Borbon, Smoak and Arias and pitchers like Feliz, Holland, Harrison, Perez, Main and Beaven, the Rangers' future is infinitely bright. It might make more sense to wait it out until their young guys hit it big.

I agree, out of all the teams, the only teams I think with an incentive to get a trade done with the Pads would be the Rockies, the Rangers, and the Rays.

The Rockies could offer pitcher Franklin Morales, shortstop Chris Nelson, outfielder Dexter Fowler, and a couple of other prospects to get Peavy. The problem is that they're in the same division, and I highly doubt the Friars will trade their BEST player within the same division. So Rockies fans, don't get your hopes up.

The Rangers most definitely need pitching, and they would have the biggest incentive to go for a Peavy deal. They have one of the top 5 farm systems in the league, and they could field a pretty good offer. Prospects could include pitcher Eric Hurley; outfielder Engel Beltre; outfielder Elvis Andrus; pitcher Neftali Feliz; one of Jarrod Saltamacchia, Taylor Teagarden or Max Ramirez; or even Chris Davis. Now I'm not sure if the Rangers would be open to trading Hamilton, even if that would make logical sense. I think though, that the Padres would rather go for younger players to help strengthen their weak farm system.

The Rays have the best farm system, and they could also field the best offer without screwing up their system, since they're so deep. I'm sure offers would have to include pitchers David Price, Jeff Niemann, Jake McGee, Jeremy Hellickson or Wade Davis. They could also offer shortstop Reid Brignac, as well as outfielder Desmond Jennings. With their team still relatively young, and with this year's success, I would think that ownership would be willing to spend a little more dough to get Peavy. Not to mention, trading 4-6 of those players wouldn't hamstring their future, as they have so much prospect depth.

However, this all depends on whether or not Peavy is open to playing out of the NL.

I can't imagine that Peavy would approve a trade to Arlington. He's in line for another contract after this one. Pitching in that park could kill his future earnings potential.

They could, but I'd be very surprised if they did. They're farm system weakened a little with the trade for Sabathia. Unless, of course, the Friars would be interested in acquiring Ricky Weeks along with said prospects, then maybe they can work something out. But that would really hamstring they're farm system. Remember, the Indians still have to pick that PTBNL, which is between Tyler Green and Michael Brantley. Not to mention the Brewer's weakness at 3rd... Highly doubt they would part with Gamel and Green unless they have no other choice.

Even with the potential loss of both Sabathia and Sheets, they still have a pretty strong rotation led by Gallardo.

If they would be interested in Peavy, I think talks would have to start with Escobar, Gamel, and either Jefferes or Parra.

I seriously doubt the Brewers move any of their key prospects for more veteran. Guys like Gamel, Escobar, Jeffress and Salome will likely be untouchable. If the Brewers were to be looking for someone to replace Sabathia and Sheets in the rotation, they would likely look to move Hardy, Weeks or Fielder rather than their cheaper and more cost controlled options. Considering that Gallardo, Parra, Bush and Suppan will likely have spots in the '09 rotation, the need for a fifth, quality starter is quite real.

I could see the Brewers going after a lesser young pitcher like Scott Olsen. The Marlins probably wouldn't mind adding Weeks, considering they're likely to move Uggla, whether over to third or in a trade.

why should the rangers be opposed to moving kinsler? they can call up andrus and slide michael young to 2nd to replace him, and probably improve the defense in the process. i'm not buying the talk that kinsler is a more valuable player to have than hamilton. he's a great cf and w/o him, kinsler would never score all of those runs

kinsler, salty, neftali and borbon. i think that's a pretty good offer for peavy

Boomshwa12- I believe the Padres would LOVE that offer, but the Ranger's biggest concern is not be able to offer enough, but rather, Peavy's ability to veto trades based on his "full no-trade clause." It would take a lot to convince a pitcher as good as him to go pitch in Arlington's bandbox.

I think any team would love to have Peavy, however, the price is just to high for rebuilding teams. The Rangers would do better looking for deals involving Cain, Olsen, Bucholz, and Jackson. Those guys would require less prospects in return allowing the Rangers to give a little to get what they really need. PITCHING.

If the Rangers got two of any of those guys and still had Andrus, Feliz, Holland, Main, Teagarden, and Davis. They would be set for years to come.

And that scenario could very well happen.

boomshwa,

Nefalti Feliz is untouchable right now and that would be way too much to give for Peavy. YES I said it too much.

IF the Rangers actually wanted to do something for Peavy it would look like Kinsler, Salty, Borbon, and Perez

Juice,

As I have said on here before... just because the Rangers have a stacked farm system doesn't mean that numbers 5-10 on the Rangers top 20 prospects aren't any good. In fact some of those guys would easily be at the top of a number of teams list if the other team wasn't blinded by the afore mentioned guys.

So that leaves teams with guys like Hurley, Max Ramirez, Beltre, Beavan, Kiker, Borbon, Perez, Cruz, Hunter, Harrison, and Wilmer Font to choose from.

If you can't get Olsen and Bucholz... Olsen and Jackson.... or Bucholz and Jackson for a combo of those guys then the team is asking way too much!

Cain and another pitcher would exhaust almost all of those prospects.

I guess my question in response to that is where is the organization headed? They seem to possess one of the most potent offenses in the league, but lack pitching. If you can maintain the current offensive production do you think it would be wise to empty the farm for PROVEN front-line MLB pitchers? It would be tough to swallow seeing all those prospects go, but they could distinguish 1-3 absolutely untouchable, and empty the rest to compliment the current team.

The Rangers are one of the most exciting teams to watch this offseason because they have the potential to show their fan base they are SERIOUS about winning, and more importantly, winning now. What do you think?

Juice,

I agree. Keep the top 4 MAYBE 5 guys? Then empty the tank on the rest... Obviously, anyone can hit at the ballpark but not everyone can hit. Improve your defense and pitching and you can go deep in the playoffs.

Tmoney,

You don't think Peavy is a front-line starter? Sometimes, a team has to make sacrifices to improve themselves during the present. Feliz has potential. But that's all it is, potential. Who's to say he won't end up like Daniel Cabrera? A live arm who doesn't pan out? Just because you have solid control in the minors doesn't mean that would translate to success in the majors. I'd like to point out that Jeff Weaver and Kris Benson were thought to be 'potential' aces when they were still in the minors. Look at where they are now.

Like I said, potential is potential until it's realized. Who's to say that Feliz won't end up as a bust like the two I previously mentioned?

All I'm saying is that if you get a chance to trade for an ACE who has a 3.24 career ERA (of which his '06 season did damage to his career ERA, and his first 2 seasons where he had a 4+ ERA), you should still take it.

And Peavy is almost at the same level as Santana.
Santana's age 27 season, he had stats of: 2.77 ERA, 19-6 record, 245 Ks.
Peavy's age 27 season, he had stats of: 2.85 ERA, 10-11 record, 166 Ks, and that's having 7 less starts than Santana did.

"No way the Rangers mortgage their farm for Peavy. Would it be great to have him?"

For the Rangers? Absolutely. Honestly I think if the Rangers managed to keep their offense, at least most of it, and added an ace like Peavy and added another bullpen arm they could very well challenge for the AL West crown.

"I think Buchholz, Bowden, Reddick would be a start..."

Eh. For Peavy the Pads would likely want a sure thing to be a solid starter (Lester), would want Greene's replacement (Lowrie), and since Towers likes pen arms would like Masterson. Buchholz's wildness has given his value a decent hit, Bowden has a ceiling as an ok #2 or good #3 pitcher, and Reddick is 2 years away from ready. I really don't see a way for the Red Sox/Pads come to terms on a deal.

AA

thank you man! finally someone who has it straight! kinsler should be untouchable but hamilton should be seriously considered in a peavy deal (not in one of those kinsler and the rest of the farm...anything close to hammy straight up should be considered)

Or just take out Kinsler and put in another blue-chip prospect.

Kinsler + Feliz is a good starting point for any Rangers Peavy deal.

Well, obviously they'd have to add one of Gordon or Butler.

But would that get the job done? I'm just wondering, is all.

BleedinBlue: I'm not trying to be rude, but this is the real world, and not a video game. Imagine if you were a Cardinals fan, and you had a winning record this past year, mostly because of Albert Pujols, and your management decided to trade the best player in baseball for prospects and one legitimate MLB player in Greinke. How would you feel?

I guess anything is possible, but there has to be as close to No chance as possible. It really doesn't make sense for the Cardinals to do something like that.

I don't see the Rangers moving the huge packages that are being suggested to acquire Peavy.

I expect with all the grandstanding that Dayton Moore has done about Greinke being untouchable, he would have to get a better return than the article is suggesting in order to move him. The Royals (and Dayton Moore) are in a precarious position. Their best prospects are all in A ball. They need depth in their upper minor leagues and I doubt they'd take less than 2 AAA and 2 AA players to move him. They are a team that wants to make a move in the standings next year, not just want to, but need to. I think Moore believes that they will need Greinke to do so. If I was him I'd be willing to sacrifice another year to get grand depth in the upper minors.

I don't see any of these guys moving this off season.

I'm surprised that Scott Olsen wasn't included in this list of "three" young hurlers likely to be available this offseason. It sounds like a fait accompli that he'll be moved.

And those 4 are?

If the reds had the prospects to go out and get Peavy I would definitely do it, but they don't.

However, Rangersvoice mentioned Bailey, and the Rangers can have him as a main piece in the deal that brings back Salty or Laird.

Anteater,

Peavy wouldn't be worth the price to the rays if if had to include BOTH Price and Jackson. The Rays have plenty of other talent they could offer without giving up Price. Personally, I would rather have Price and Jackson over Peavy!

Why would the Sox give up on Lester? I would look at Bowden Lowrie and Masterson.... something along those lines.

The Rangers scenario has already been debated on this post

"Rays: Edwin Jackson, David Price, shortstop Reid Brignac, and outfielder Desmond Jennings

Red Sox: Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Jed Lowrie and an outfielder

Rangers: Hamilton and a mid level prospect
OR
pitcher Neftali Feliz, catcher Jarrod Saltamacchia and Chris Davis"

These trades are a little whack. The Rays would be giving up way too much if they offered Jackson, Price, Brignac and Jennings for Peavy. Price is going to be a solid 3/4 next year and an ace within 3 years, so honestly if the Rays offered Price, Brignac and some, I think the Padres would be tempted.

As for the Red Sox's offer, I just think that at this point Jon Lester is too close to Peavy to be worth Masterson, Lowrie and an outfielder (presumably of the Kalish/Reddick type), especially when considering their costs. I just don't think that the Red Sox would move Lester in a deal like that, but maybe replace him with Buchholz and we can talk.

The Padres would probably not want to do a Hamilton plus some kind of deal, because this is a team that needs quality depth all over the diamond. That's why honestly I think the Feliz/Salty/Davis idea is the more logical of them all in terms of concept, but really I think you have the prospects all wrong. Neftali Feliz should definately be in there, he's a stud prospect in every sense. But rather than Davis, when you consider that the Padres already have Adrian Gonzalez AND Kyle Blanks, San Diego would assuredly persue shortstop Elvis Andrus. He's exactly the type of shortstop prospect that the Padres would go after if they wanted to deal Peavy, and he would be a good fit in San Diego. And honestly if the Padres could choose from there, they would prefer to add Taylor Teagarden. He's a superior prospect thanks to the fact that he's a quality defender at catcher as well as a plus bat, where as Salty is a question mark behind the plate. But then again if the Padres were already landing Feliz and Andrus, two of the thirty or so best prospects in the game, then I'm not sure how lenient the Rangers would be.

I'd like to see a sourse for Olney's speculation. Just because execs are listing guys that might be traded doesn't mean they will be and doesn't mean they're on the market. it just means, they'll be targeted by those execs.

With regards to Cain, Sabean says adamantly that he is untouchable. That's a source, on the record. Cite it. If you don't believe him, say so, but back it up.

I'm not an Insider so I don't know what Olney wrote about Cain, but I doubt he cited any credible source re Cain trade speculation other than every single major league team would like to have him.

ALSO the Pads also need to get the best hitter availible in the draft w/ their pick for a horrible season unless the idiots in front of them don't get Steven Strasburg

giants will only trade cain if howard or wright is involved

A couple of things:

1) Yanks fans - Kennedy and Melky have no value right now. Until proven otherwise, they are assumed to be subpar at the major league level. They're going to be the Ronny Cedeno and Sean Marshall of this offseason, two B level prospects who've yet to produce.

2) Right now, I doubt Boston would do Lester for Peavy straight up factoring the salary difference and Lester's postseason pedigree, so I think that the Red Sox are off the table.

3) I think the only team that REALLY fits here is the Rays; however, there is no way they part with Price in ANY deal which would likely be tough for the Padres to deal with. Even without Price, the Rays would be able to provide the best offer with Jackson and the various pitching prospects they have, but its tough to hear you can't get a specific prospect in a deal for a team controlled top-5 pitcher in the game.

4) The avaliablity of other pitching options via trade (i.e. the ones Tim listed) will make it VERY difficult for the Padres to obtain what they will percieve as fair value for Peavy unless a team gets desperate.

Trading Cain for Ryan Howard would be a mistake he's going to soon be an overpaid declining slugger.

The only guys they should trade him for would be Wright, Reyes, Pujols, Bruce, Longoria, Wieters, Hanley Ramirez, Mauer, Kemp, Braun, Fielder, Utley, Justin Upton and probably some over guys I'm forgetting.

"Braves match up perfectly... Middle Inflielders, young pitchers, and outfielders is what the Padres need the braves have names like .Kelly johnson/Martin Prado/Brent Lillibridge, Tommy Hanson/Kris Medlen/Cole Rohrbough/Scott Diamond, Brandon Jones/Jordan Schafer/Gorkys Hernandez, These guys can be packaged in some order to make a deal happen."

But see, if the Braves refuse to include Heyward in the deal, then they'll have to give up their 2-5 prospects. The Padres would likely want Gorkys Hernandez, Tommy Hanson, Brent Lillibridge, Julio Teheran and Jordan Schafer if they couldn't land Heyward. With Heyward they would likely want him, Hanson, Lillibridge and then maybe Jones.

the cubs should go after peavy, and only after they sign dempster and wood. This might be the last chance for the cubs for a few years because after the 09 year the cubs will be without derosa and lilly and someother pieces. so the cubs should trade for peavy.

cubs get: jake peavy, LHP(minor)

padres get: jason marquis, felix pie, sean marshall, josh vitters, ronny cedeno,
or
(if offseason free agents signings go through)

padres get: jason marquis, ryan theriot, josh vitters,