Olney On Halladay, Bay, Mulder

IMHO, if he did that deal, his "signature mark" would be depleting the farm system of virtually all of it's high-end pitching talent and leaving the Phillies vulnerable to becoming irrelevant after the 2010 season. I think that package is far too much to give up, but I think the Jays would take it in a heartbeat.

"Drabeck, Brown, Carrasco, Donald and Kendrick for Halladay.

Get it done, Ruben. Make your signature mark on this team. This is still Gillick's team. Even Raul was a total Gillick move, as Raul played for Gillick in Seattle."

No way. I understand that the Phils would have to give up maybe 2 of the 5 highly regarded prospects (Drabek, Carrasco, Knapp, Taylor, Brown)... how about Taylor, Carrasco, Donald, Bastardo, and a low-level guy

Bay shouldnt get much more then Holliday, but i dont think Holliday is any better then Bay defensively.
Id say holliday had plenty of park adjusted stats as he clearly isnt the same player outside of Coors Field. I realize hes now hitting in a pitchers park but thats a huge drop.
Boras must be really pissed at that trade in his walk year..lol

Extending Washburn, Bedard OR Branyan after this year would be pure foolishness on the part of Seattle.

Don't know what Olney's smokin' but, please, DON'T give me any!

"Bay shouldnt get much more then Holliday, but i dont think Holliday is any better then Bay defensively."

It's not even close, Holliday is far superior defensively. His career UZR/150 stands at 6.7, in other words an above average defender. Bay on the other hand is at -7.3, a below average defender and he's been far worse the last three years. Despite a huge advantage with the bat this year he has been worth only .2 WAR more than Holliday. Put Holliday in Fenway and he would outproduce Bay

"The Phillies have the talent to get this done. If they can get Halladay while saving Drabek and a Brown or Taylor, it would look good on all fronts (for the big league team and the preservation of prospects we've barely ever had, and for the Jays)."

The first logical statement by a Phillies fan regarding the Halladay ordeal. You do not give up your top 2 prospects at any position (and this includes p).

The Phillies should start the convo with Brown and Knapp. Those two are still too far away from the majors to help the Phillies while their "core" is intact. Taylor and Drabek are much closer to being major league ready. I'm still convinced Taylor is going to end up being just as good or better than Brown anyway.

Maybe the Phils could get a third team (say the Giants) involved who would be willing to take Rios and send some more prospects. Then the Jays would have to consider taking a lesser return from the Phillies because that would free up huge amounts of money for them. Of course I suppose they could just make that deal separately anyway. But Ruben is gonna have to get creative to make this work.

Once again Holliday has been roughly worth just as much as Bay this year (holliday's worst and bay's best) yet people seem eager to show bay the money and reluctant to give holliday a big deal. And like melonis said when you factor in the park adjustments, the hitting gap closes rapidly. Playing in Oakland is killing Holliday's perceived worth. I hope the Braves fill their huge hole in LF with Holliday over the off-season barring a bidding war with the Yanks. 5-6 years 75-100 million should get it done and it would finally give the braves a legitimate major league OF (holliday, mclouth, and schafer)

Look the simple fact is this, whoever wants the best pitcher in baseball is going to have to give up a haul. The Phillies don't have a great number of top prospects (they do have really good top prospects, quality over quantity for them) so they are going to have move a premium prospect or two. You can't get away with making two or three of your top 5 untouchable and still hope to pull off a deal.

i think people also don't realize (although he's farther away) how good Knapp can be. He's 18 and has great stats. He's struck out 111 in 84 innings while walking just 36. His ERA is a touch high because of a couple of bad outings but if he cut his walks a bit and got his ERA down we'd be comparing those numbers to Hamels when he was in A ball.

I've seen the kid pitch 3 times and he regularly hits 96 and has solid movement on his pitches too. I'd never consider him a throw in to a deal just because he's in A ball and only 18. I could see him progressing quickly in the next year or so.

Alright, I may have misread that -- maybe the Nats thing doesn't have anything to do with Halladay. (At least I sure as hell hope not.)

"It's not even close, Holliday is far superior defensively. His career UZR/150 stands at 6.7, in other words an above average defender. Bay on the other hand is at -7.3, a below average defender and he's been far worse the last three years. Despite a huge advantage with the bat this year he has been worth only .2 WAR more than Holliday. Put Holliday in Fenway and he would outproduce Bay"

Completely agree with all of this Bravesfan. good work.

Hey misreading is a good thing because it means you aren't illiterate! Yeah!!!

If the phills want bullpen help they could always snag bell from the pads for carrasco

“The Mariners should offer Branyan a 3 year deal, he's still in great shape, has lots of baseball in him, and he isn't showing signs of wearing down. Just to be guaranteed to start regularly he took less money to play in Seattle. I'm sure his value will go up a little, but teams will still be suspicious and he's older, so I'm thinking they could sign him for $10MM over the 3 years with $1MM signing bonus and $3MM per season with incentives that could make the deal worth 4 million a year.”

Have you been paying attention? He has hit .221/.313/.505/.818 the last month. And what is he for his career again? Oh yeah, a .237/.335/.496/.831 emergency stop-gap player used by desperate teams. Signing Branyan to a 3 year deal worth 10-13 million is instantly one of the worst moves of the offseason. Resigning him on a one year deal would be questionable enough – he should be dealt now while he still has some value!

“Washburn was talking about retiring, so I think the money is less a concern, he does want to pitch with Adair, so I think a two year deal would be good for both and I imagine he would take a significant discount to stay in Seattle, maybe $6MM per year for 2 years.”

Washburn, after a career year, is going to go from 10 million a season to 6? There is no way he signs for under 10 again - career years make you money, not cost you 40% of your salary

I’m sorry, but you seem to say the most questionable and illogical stuff of everyone on this board.

An elite OF prospect and an elite starting prospect, along with two well-regarded premium position prospects and a former first round pick that hasn't proven to be a bust yet.

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oh and that former first round pick is 11-1 BTW in AA with a solid 3.34 ERA on the year and in his last 10 starts he's 8-0 with a 2.96 ERA.

Not bad for a throw in although admittedly his peripheral stats are pretty awful for that record and ERA.

I'm wondering why there is so much hostility towards the Seattle Mariners and our players. Saying such things about Washburn, Bedard and Branyan out of hate for them or the M's? Are you mad because your team can't land one of these guys so the M's can go into the drain? What is it; I'm willing to listen to a logical answer. Understand this, I was never for the Bedard trade, didn't like the signing of Branyan and thought Washburn should have been let go along with Vidro and Sexson. However I'm happy to say that I was wrong and I'm enjoying this season, a season in which this city has not seen in many years. So don't get me wrong, I don't believe that Branyan should receive a contract like the M's gave Beltre or Sexson, however I do believe he deserves playing somewhere he is wanted and can play everyday. I just wish Bedard would tweak his windup so he isn't putting so much strain on his lower back and causing all his other issues. As for Wash, well he's a team player and a winner, whether he gets the win or not, through and through. So please, enlighten me with facts instead of emotional drivel. Remember that stats don't always translate into wins and losses; they only make you happy or mad.

"I'm wondering why there is so much hostility towards the Seattle Mariners and our players. Saying such things about Washburn, Bedard and Branyan out of hate for them or the M's?"

Are you the IKnowNothing guy on a different account? No one said anything other then resigning Westrbook and Branyan would be horrible ideas - and I gave a couple of the reasons on Branyan. No one is showing "hate" for them or the Mariners, long term deals are just a horrible idea for either. Branyan is on his 7th team in 5 years for a reason. And it was talked as though Westbrook could be released, or sent packing for nothing of a return just to get out from under his contract. To ignore those facts and instead think longterm contracts off a half years performance is downright foolish.

Trade Branyan while you can, you will be able to sign him to a one year, one and change contract before next season just like you did for 08. His production over the second half will be no better then you could probably get from calling up guys like Carp or Clement. Hold onto Washburn for the rest of the year if you really think you will compete, but take the DPs when he signs elseware. Neither will help you much next year, and both hold much more value in what they can bring your system upon exit.

I meant to say "set a Mariners home run record" It seems whenever anyone here over the age of 30 has a good year, everyone wants to unload them. If the Mariners had Ibanez in left, they might be a legitimate playoff contender - but no, he lacks range and was definitely going to go downhill due to his age - get rid of him. He wanted to go to a winner, but all the wanna-be gm's wanted picks or prospects for him last year as the M's were a 60 win team - and of course had no hope next year. I believe several teams like the Twins have went from last place to winning titles in the span of one year. It's not like the M's are a low payroll team, they have the ability to turn things around quickly - unlike say the Royals, though contract's like Silva's do not help GM's.

I'm well aware of Branyan's past - I've always felt his power production has been very good based on limited at bats, and when I heard that he was going to finally get a full time job in Seattle, I bumped him up 50 slots in my fantasy rankings, so I expected him to produce. His batting average has been higher than I expected, but his production has been solid the past month even with him hitting .235, especially since he has little protection in the lineup. I'm sorry, but I find his home runs to be impressive, and his swing and plate discipline to not remind me of Rob Deer, Dave Kingman, or Steve Balboni - I think he is better than those guys - and he has never had the At Bats that those guys had. You have to watch a player, sometimes they improve, and no one notices it. What about Juan Rivera for the Angels now that he is a full time player - are you positive that he is going to fall flat on his face? Check out Bernie Williams stats over his first 5 years, I might be wrong, but I recall him putting up quite a few .235 seasons. I know you likely think everyone is an idiot for wanting to watch a player like Branyan with no upside - but I'd rather gamble that he can continue his newfound success - 1st Base has been a disaster since Olerud, and we seem to have struck oil with Branyan - and I'm not eager to unload him - dumping every productive veteran you have on a yearly basis is risky, I think Billy Beane has run that Oakland team into the ground - he had a lot of luck with young pitchers, but it's finally run out and he doesn't have much to trade anymore. If the Florida Marlins were able to win 2 world series with the motley crews they put together, I feel any team has a shot - including this one. I watched All Star talent level Mariner teams in the 90's, and they failed in the playoffs due to suspect pitching. This team has good starting pitching - I'm not eager to unload productive veterans right now for prospects.

I like Branyan's swing and plate discipline - he seems to have periods where his bat speed gets a bit slow, but I think he's better than Rob Deer, Dave Kingman, Steve Balboni etc. - and this is the first time he had received the AB's that those guys did. 21 Home Runs and a near .300 average in a pathetic lineup with no protection is impressive. The Mariners are an embarrasment power-wise without Branyan. What about Juan Rivera for the Angels? You won't find much exciting on his baseball card, will you guarantee his imminent failure? I recall watching Bernie Williams looking like a crappy .235 hitter for 5 years, and an All Star for the rest. Wade Boggs and Edgar Martinez sat in the minors until they were 27 as they weren't top prospects. I watched All-Star talent level Mariner's teams in the 90's, and they fell short because of suspect pitching. This team has 3 starters in Hernandez, Bedard, and Washburn who give the M's a shot in a playoff series, I'm not eager to deal away every productive veteran for prospects, and then watch Hernandez, Bedaard, and Washburn leave as FA in the next year or two - and do you really think anyone is going to give the M's elite prospects for Branyan? I don't, other GM's would not want to stick their necks out on a guy with the history you've outlined. What would they trade him for then - a different veteran 1B or LF? What's the point? Branyan never hit 21 home runs in a season - this isn't just a little "hot streak". Why not accept good fortune instead of casting it off immediately.

Wow, you are just all kinds of errors, arent you

“What about Juan Rivera for the Angels? You won't find much exciting on his baseball card, will you guarantee his imminent failure?”

You better look at that card again – the only problem he has ever had is staying healthy.

“I recall watching Bernie Williams looking like a crappy .235 hitter for 5 years, and an All Star for the rest”

Bernie Williams batted under .268 once in his first five seasons, and posted a 5 year total of .279/.362/.427/.788 (112 OPS+) in Center Field from the ages 22 to 26. Even if what you said was remotely true, it still wouldn’t be anywhere close to the same because of age and position.

“Wade Boggs and Edgar Martinez sat in the minors until they were 27 as they weren't top prospects”

Wade Boggs played his first half-season at age 24 (.349/.406/.441/.847 127 OPS+) and finished 3rd in rookie of the year voting. At age 25, he played his first full season and lead the league in BA and OBP with a .361/.444/.486/.931 (150 OPS+) line.

Edgar Martinez did have some cups of coffee prior to 27, but that was his first full season. So, yay – you got something right! /golfclap Only thing, not sure how Martinez compares to Branyan – Edgar hit .315/.417/.507/.924 (194 OPS+) up to the age of 33, Branyan has hit .237/.335/.496/.831 (115 OPS+) for his career.

And just so you know, Branyan this year is the same exact Branyan he has been every year when 10 teams weren’t really wanting him (yes, even his HR/FB rates). The only real difference in Branyan this season over what he has been in the past is an unsustainable .352 BAbip. And specifically, you can see this split so far

Up to June 7 .322/.424/.621/1.045 with .389 BAbip
Last 30 days .221/.313/.505/.818 with .245 BAbip

If he is to end up with his career normal (and the ML average) BAbip of .300, three more months like his last one would about do it. So enjoy your .220/.310/??? or lower hitter over the next 3 months!

What, I have to check the baseball almanac before every sentence I write. The Mariners needed a 1st basemen - last year they were playing marginal prospect Bryan Lahair there. Branyan hits 21 Home Runs and plays a solid 1st base, and the Mariners should unload him for anything they can get due to a bad 10 days in July? They should make a weak offense weaker? I stand by what I said about Bernie Williams - except I should have said 4 years - his 5th year wasn't bad, he's lucky an impatient team like the Yankees stuck with him for 4 years of marginal performances. Juan Rivera only has had 1 year in 9 where he slugged over .500 and hit 20 home runs, and you say you like what you see on his baseball card? You expect him to continue to play like he is, but Branyan can't? Rivera is lucky he's still in the league. You don't have to be an arrogant smartass who won't grant any points - I'm not comparing Branyan to Edgar Martinez in terms of the type of game they play - Martinez won batting titles. The point was that he rotted in the minors because he was not highly regarded, was viewed as having too little power for 3rd base, and was blocked by a .235 hitting 3rd baseman who had a few good power years. Branyan has never really been given a full year to show what he can do, but that doesn't mean he can't play. Carlos Pena floundered around for 7 years with 4 different teams - getting released by Detroit, New York, and Boston in a short period of time - when he started to hit, were you screaming for Tampa to get rid of him? Why don't you total up his batting averages - I bet they stink, but I'd sure rather have him on the Mariners than Ryan Carp.

Absolutely - they're playing way better than we could have hoped for, and we're supposed to jump on this chance to trade off all the guys who are making this a fun year? Can't we be fans and enjoy this team and the players that are on it? I like watching Branyan and Washburn, and Bedard when he's healthy - plus all three want to be in Seattle. We disagree in that I like the acquisitions of all 3 players (was not impressed with Jones - I'll admit I was wrong, and Tillman is supposed to be great) - but we can agree that they are playing well this year and we are M's fans and this is fun. Look at how they bounced back from that horrible loss last night. The current GM seems to have been right on everything - Guttierrez for Putz looks to be a great move (not to mention that Chavez was a much better player than I realized). The only arguable bad move so far seems to be replacing Bloomquist with Cedeno, but Bloomquist needed a change of scenery. Almost everyone in the media acts as if Seattle has no shot - but don't you think this team is as good as Texas? Even on paper? We have no Hamilton's, Young's, or Kinsler's - but we have no Padilla's and other questionable starters either. I feel anything is possible, the Cubs have put many good teams on the field and have never won anything - a lot of it is just fortune and momentum - 29 other teams trying for the same thing, and while 5 or so are a cut above and 2 or 3 really are hopeless - the rest have a pretty equal chance. I'm really enjoying this season - when was the last time Baltimore or Pittsburgh even had a winning season.

And again - I do not think trading hot players for prospects is - even if you get great value is always great. You can argue that the Mariners are pretenders, so they should get rid of players like Ibanez, Branyan, Washburn etc. for prospects and be a juggernaut in 2012 - but here's the problem - the players aren't fantasy GM's - they want to win, and will not be pleased with unloading good players for minor leaguers. You are then forced to trade Bedard, Washburn, etc. as they will want off the sinking ship - if you don't trade them they will be gone to FA next year. You might say fine - we'll get more prospects. But here's the rub - Felix Hernandez will be a FA in a few years, and he might be unhappy playing on a 60 win team - but that's great - we can just trade him for more prospects in 2011!