2010 NL Rookie Of The Year Predictions

Raise your hand if you had Florida's Chris Coghlan as your preseason NL ROY pick.  I'm not seeing too many hands!  I'll make the conventional pick for 2010 with Jason Heyward, but here's a bigger field to consider:

Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman, Buster Posey, Pedro Alvarez, Alcides Escobar, Madison Bumgarner, Starlin Castro, Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Jason Castro, Jenrry Mejia, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Leake, Fernando Martinez, Mat Gamel, Drew Storen, Andrew Cashner, Mike Stanton, Jay Jackson, Jose Tabata, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Eric Young Jr., David Freese, Ian Desmond, Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, Jon Niese, Yonder Alonso, Brad Lincoln, Travis Wood, Daniel McCutchen, Tommy Manzella, Scott Elbert

Let us know additional names to consider, as well as your picks.


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116 Comments on "2010 NL Rookie Of The Year Predictions"


Jntg4
5 years 5 months ago

Tyler Colvin

Guest
5 years 5 months ago

One hec of a spring right?

After what happened yesterday, I’m poised to say Mike Leake, but I’m going to say Jason Heyward. Although, Jason Castro is going to have a hugr rookie season in his own right.

redsandyanksfan
5 years 5 months ago

i agree with you Mike Leake is having a hella of a spring and im pretty sure he has that 5th roation spot in his hands, he has good control and poise almost reminds me if a right handed Andy Pettitte because you dont have to have a high 90’s fastball to be great

Guest
5 years 5 months ago

I wouldn’t mind even going as far as Greg Maddux.

redsandyanksfan
5 years 5 months ago

Yea i think he can have a tremendous career and he actually reminds me sorta if maddux with his pinpoint location and offspeed stuff , the reds have alot of talent to be happy with in the farm/ on the bubble of major league and most of them are ready for the majors

5 years 5 months ago

Tyler Colvin? The “25 lbs of muscle” story is a fun one, but he still went 74 plate appearances without a single walk this spring. NOT A SINGLE WALK. Scouting reports are going to catch up with his stronger swing and his not-at-all-improved plate discipline is going to be his undoing.

Jntg4
5 years 5 months ago

Tyler Colvin

Brian
5 years 5 months ago

Ike Davis if he gets called up early enough

jakec77
5 years 5 months ago

that’s who I was going to say as well- no, not saying he is better or even as good as some of the above names, but he fits a need on his team’s ML level, his strength is the sort of thing that impresses voters (power), and playing in the NY market definitely helps. If he comes up, and it’s early enough that he can hit 25-30 HR’s for the Mets, that would make him a strong candidate.

rainyperez
5 years 5 months ago

25-30 HRs playing at your guys staidum…highly unlikely…

Yankees10
5 years 5 months ago

Especially for a rookie.

jakec77
5 years 5 months ago

the effect of Citi is over-rated, the Mets themselves just sucked at hitting homeruns last year.

Redbirds16
5 years 5 months ago

didn’t they move the fences in at Citi?

NL_East_Rivalry
5 years 5 months ago

no, they just lowered one portion, but they should have.

Brian
5 years 5 months ago

Ike Davis if he gets called up early enough

lazyspleen
5 years 5 months ago

Cincinnati’s Juan Francisco…if he can figure out how NOT to be Adam Dunn, a one-dimensional power-hitter.

lazyspleen
5 years 5 months ago

Cincinnati’s Juan Francisco…if he can figure out how NOT to be Adam Dunn, a one-dimensional power-hitter.

$1529282
5 years 5 months ago

Most predictions will say Heyward, and it’s hard to disagree, but I think Drew Storen has a good chance as well. I don’t see Capps and Bruney as legit closing options in Washington, so Storen and his lights-out stuff could get a chance early on, leaving plenty of time for an Andrew Bailey-like run at RotY.

Obviously, Heyward is the easy favorite, but I think if he falters or has a so-so rookie campaign (which IS possible folks, given his limited experience above Class-AA), Storen could sneak in. Strasburg is also a definite possibility, as is Aroldis Chapman if he’s up by June.

1. Heyward
2. Storen
3. Chapman
4. Strasburg
5. Gaby Sanchez

Sure, we’ll go with that list.

rainyperez
5 years 5 months ago

I’m going to say Heyward is going to have a high strikeout rate. Scouts have said he strides into his swing which is an indicator that he’ll have a tough time with those off-speed pitches, he might not live up to the hype but he has potential…

1.Strasburg
2.Heyward
3.Posey
4.Gaby Sanchez
5.Dan Runzler (who I believe is still a rookie)

paulyicecubes
5 years 5 months ago

He’s never had a high strikeout rate. If there was glaring hole in his swing as simple as an inability to hit offspeed pitches, opposing teams would have picked up on it by now.

rainyperez
5 years 5 months ago

Major league pitching is a lot different from the minors because of video playback and the surplus of talent. We’ll see how his plate discipline measures up when he faces the league for the first time, and believe me I’m not saying he won’t have plate discipline but his rookie year he’s going to have huge bumps in the season handling pitching.

thegoche
5 years 5 months ago

Sure, Heyward has 138 K and 105 BB in 876 career minor league at bats, but, yeah…I bet he will have a high strikeout rate [sarcasm].

The biggest thing that they talk about on him is his eye and plate discipline (and this is more than one unnamed scout, this is literally his best known skill), so even if he’s not great at hitting offspeed, he probably won’t be chasing too many offspeed out of the zone, which is the biggest part of not striking out on offspeed pitches.

If he does have a problem adjusting speeds to off-speed pitches, my guess is that he would just put balls in play, but without good contact.

But for some one-line scouting report to be some sort of evidence that he’s all of the sudden going to strike out a lot, is kind of a joke.

Jason_F
5 years 5 months ago

It’s interesting that you mention Runzler. He was lights out towards the end of last season (not to mention the rest of the year in the minors). He will definitely get plenty of action this year, which is not something you can say for most of they guys listed above.

rainyperez
5 years 5 months ago

yeah Runzler has a higher chance of capturing the award, because of his “stuff.” Huge strikeout rate and he is a horse. In spring training he had 2 strikeouts an inning if he’s brought into 60 games and produces a 1.50-2.00 ERA with 80 strikeouts he’ll have a higher chance of winning the ROY

5 years 5 months ago

I love love love Runzler, but the Giants have a definite bromance with Sergio Romo. Between Romo, Affeldt, and Wilson, I don’t know if Runzler will see enough high leverage play to get serious consideration for ROY.

55saveslives
5 years 5 months ago

I’d like to see Runzler kick ass and take over the closer role and we trade Brian Wilson for a bat

NL_East_Rivalry
5 years 5 months ago

No love for Stanton?

$1529282
5 years 5 months ago

Most predictions will say Heyward, and it’s hard to disagree, but I think Drew Storen has a good chance as well. I don’t see Capps and Bruney as legit closing options in Washington, so Storen and his lights-out stuff could get a chance early on, leaving plenty of time for an Andrew Bailey-like run at RotY.

Obviously, Heyward is the easy favorite, but I think if he falters or has a so-so rookie campaign (which IS possible folks, given his limited experience above Class-AA), Storen could sneak in. Strasburg is also a definite possibility, as is Aroldis Chapman if he’s up by June.

1. Heyward
2. Storen
3. Chapman
4. Strasburg
5. Gaby Sanchez

Sure, we’ll go with that list.

5 years 5 months ago

everyone knows that it is going to come down to two players Heyward or Strasburg. It should be a good race if Strasburg gets called up earlier enough

PujolsHollidayWestbrook
5 years 5 months ago

Strasburg may not be up before June and Heyward looks great, but injuries, prolonged slumps, etc. could change that prediction for this year. Since ATL already has 3 “could be on most teams” starting OF’s besides Heyward, if he struggles, he may get sent back down. He is still my top choice because that is the same for all rookies, but going with guys with guaranteed opening day assignments is the best option. But none are locks. Here are my top 5.

1. Heyward
2. Escobar
3. Sanchez
4. Freese
5. A pitcher who will be up all year – Chapman, Garcia, Niese or Bumgarner

Jason_F
5 years 5 months ago

Bumgarner was already sent down, also.

PujolsHollidayWestbrook
5 years 5 months ago

Strasburg may not be up before June and Heyward looks great, but injuries, prolonged slumps, etc. could change that prediction for this year. Since ATL already has 3 “could be on most teams” starting OF’s besides Heyward, if he struggles, he may get sent back down. He is still my top choice because that is the same for all rookies, but going with guys with guaranteed opening day assignments is the best option. But none are locks. Here are my top 5.

1. Heyward
2. Escobar
3. Sanchez
4. Freese
5. A pitcher who will be up all year – Chapman, Garcia, Niese or Bumgarner

5 years 5 months ago

everyone knows that it is going to come down to two players Heyward or Strasburg. It should be a good race if Strasburg gets called up earlier enough

eedwards027
5 years 5 months ago

As a Pirate fan I’d like to say Pedro Alvarez, but I’m going to say Madison Bumgarner. He is just straight filthy.

lakersdodgersyankees4life
5 years 5 months ago

I’m sorry, but Bumgarner isn’t winning any award when he is thowing 85 with Bo secondary pitches…

rainyperez
5 years 5 months ago

oops meant to reply…his last outing he was in the 90’s and slowly approaching his norm…he wouldn’t have a fantastic minor league record if he wasn’t good. it was all mechanical with him. It takes power pitchers a while to get back velocity at the start, just look at Lincecum yesterday he threw 94 pitches averaging around 93-94 mph

lakersdodgersyankees4life
5 years 5 months ago

I havent heard any reports since he was sent down, so I cant comment on his recent work.

However, you cannot say it was just a mechanical thing because this has been going on since last May… almost a full year. I doubt it took the Giants a full year to find a mechanical flaw.

And the only way that Bumgarner and Lincecum should be compared is because they came up in the same organization. Lincecum came in, and was in the majors in months. Bumgarner has dominated the minors thus far, but has little to no secondary offerings and lost his velocity for a full year. While Bumgarner, if he develops a couple secondary pitches and is back to throwing 94(for me, it should be more than one start before saying ‘HE’S BACK!’), he may have similar potential, but Bumgarner has way too many questions right now

5 years 5 months ago

Meh. If his velocity is still down in June, then people can worry. ST isn’t even over yet.

lakersdodgersyankees4life
5 years 5 months ago

That’s what SF fans said in Sept. “eh, it’s the end of the year, if his velocity is down in ST, we should worry.” I realize you want to give him the benefit of the doubt, but common

lakersdodgersyankees4life
5 years 5 months ago

bad*

lakersdodgersyankees4life
5 years 5 months ago

I’m sorry, but Bumgarner isn’t winning any award when he is thowing 85 with Bo secondary pitches…

bradturner
5 years 5 months ago

How about Houston’s Bud Norris?

5 years 5 months ago

He could be good, but I don’t think he qualifies as a rookie. Few too many innings last year.

5 years 5 months ago

He could be good, but I don’t think he qualifies as a rookie. Few too many innings last year.

gwells
5 years 5 months ago

depending on how early he comes up, strasburg should be right there with heyward. i think it’ll be one of those two, with heyward having the edge because the braves will be a better team and he’ll get more exposure.

gwells
5 years 5 months ago

depending on how early he comes up, strasburg should be right there with heyward. i think it’ll be one of those two, with heyward having the edge because the braves will be a better team and he’ll get more exposure.

FullerTron
5 years 5 months ago

I want to pick someone beside Heyward (because I’m a hipster and fight mainstream trends), but I can’t convince myself anyone will be better.

FullerTron
5 years 5 months ago

I want to pick someone beside Heyward (because I’m a hipster and fight mainstream trends), but I can’t convince myself anyone will be better.

melonis_rex
5 years 5 months ago

1–Calling up Strasburg or Storen early enough to be ROY eligible would be dumb.

2–I see Heyward as the clear favorite, especially since he’s opening day RF, with Mejia in the conversation if he makes the opening day roster and stays up(although he shouldn’t)

gwells
5 years 5 months ago

strasburg and storen will both be up by early june, count on that. and that would be early enough for either of them to pile up enough stats to get the votes.

btw, there’s no “ROY eligibility” date. it’s really about being up early enough to compile stats and influence a team enough to influence the voters at the end of the season.

jakec77
5 years 5 months ago

no such thing as ROY eligible- in fact, a player could technically win ROY more than once, if they could some how win the first award without using up their eligibility- it’s never happened, but I believe there have been players who have gotten votes in more than one year

cookmeister
5 years 5 months ago

there is no ROY eligibility but you said ” if they could some how win the first award without using up their eligibility”? c’mon man!

jakec77
5 years 5 months ago

unlikely, but possible… imagine a year with no great candidates, where a rookie is given the job of closer right off the bat out of spring training- utterly dominates for a month, something like 10 for 10 saves, 0.00 ERA, 18K’s in 12 innings, then gets hurt, misses a couple of months, comes back in mid- Augst and dominates again, finishes the year under 50 innings pitched, and had less than 45 days on the active roster prior to September 1st.

Again, not likely… but Gregg Jefferies came in 6th in 1988 with only 29 games played, 109 ABs, and was eligible again the next year and finished 3rd, so it is certainly not impossible.

jakec77
5 years 5 months ago

no such thing as ROY eligible- in fact, a player could technically win ROY more than once, if they could some how win the first award without using up their eligibility- it’s never happened, but I believe there have been players who have gotten votes in more than one year

melonis_rex
5 years 5 months ago

1–Calling up Strasburg or Storen early enough to be ROY eligible would be dumb.

2–I see Heyward as the clear favorite, especially since he’s opening day RF, with Mejia in the conversation if he makes the opening day roster and stays up(although he shouldn’t)

bjwalsh87
5 years 5 months ago

You mentioned two of the top Cubs prospects in Castro and Cashner, but keep your eye on Tyler Colvin. He tore it up in the Grapefruit League and was originally not considered in the mix for making the big league club. Piniella has promised to start him about three times a week, and if he continues pounding the ball, and soriano or fukudome struggle again, this guy could be an everyday corner outfielder at Wrigley

Suzysman
5 years 5 months ago

“keep your eye on Tyler Colvin. He tore it up in the Grapefruit League”

With a 20.2 K%, not a single walk and a .561 BAbip.

Youre better off expecting him to do very little this season – his preseason wasnt good at all, just lucky.

bjwalsh87
5 years 5 months ago

You mentioned two of the top Cubs prospects in Castro and Cashner, but keep your eye on Tyler Colvin. He tore it up in the Grapefruit League and was originally not considered in the mix for making the big league club. Piniella has promised to start him about three times a week, and if he continues pounding the ball, and soriano or fukudome struggle again, this guy could be an everyday corner outfielder at Wrigley