Quick Hits: Sizemore, Mariners, Reds

Congratulations to this year’s Silver Slugger winners. Here are the latest links from around MLB…


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85 Comments on "Quick Hits: Sizemore, Mariners, Reds"


NickinIthaca
3 years 9 months ago

What is Fay expecting for a Standard Deviation on that enormous range he predicted for Phillips?

RMR
3 years 9 months ago

Between Uggla’s 5 year deal and Week’s 4 year deal. Uggla’s deal is the more likely model; but I hope the Reds aren’t on the hook for his decline.

And I really hope the Reds don’t bring back Cordero at anything more than ~$5M.  His best days are behind him — he just doesn’t miss bats anymore.

Guest
3 years 9 months ago

” Trade RHP Michael Pineda, RHP Brandon League, OF Greg Halman, 3B Chone Figgins (with Seattle absorbing $16 of remaining $17 million on Figgins’ contract), and SS Carlos Triunfel to Cincinnati for 1B Joey Votto and C Yasmani Grandal. ”

Thats not enough for Votto/Grandal and/or another team would beat that deal

Snoochies8
3 years 9 months ago

Yeah, i had a laugh when i read that trade

i could see the reds STARTING to listen if it was pineda+ackley+others, but the mariners would never do something like that, or at least i think they’re smart enough not to.

3 years 9 months ago

pretty sure directly after Felix, Ackley’s got be the most off-limits. 

CutTheString
3 years 9 months ago

I bet the Reds would take a long listen if that offer came up. Pineda is under team control and looks to be a front of the rotation starter, not easy to come by. Halman is a B prospect and Triunfel still has potential.

Votto is going to get pretty unaffordable pretty soon and with most of the big boys already being set at 1B, the market isn’t that great.

I don’t see a lot of other teams putting together packages that include a young pitcher with big time stuff who’s done it at the major league level.

Another part of that story has Jamie Moyer as the #5 starter for the M’s next year, so all in all it’s pretty clear that the author is high.

3 years 9 months ago

Miguel Cabrera was robbed.

I know it’s a bit of a broken record, but this isn’t even funny anymore.

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

yah they botched it

baseball52
3 years 9 months ago

Easily the most underrated player in baseball. His following among casual fans is beyond non-existent.

inleylandwetrust
3 years 9 months ago

Yep I can’t believe he didn’t get the silver slugger. What numbers could they possibly have been looking at?

Cabrera: 30 homers, .344 avg, .448 obp, .586 slg, 1.034 ops, .436 woba, 177 wrc+

Gonzalez: 27 homers, .338 avg, .410 obp, .548 slg, .958 ops, .406 woba, 153 wrc+

I’m baffled. There is no reason whatsoever. What a joke.

Guest
3 years 9 months ago

it really makes no sense, I don’t see an angle

unless it has to do with the dui or more exposure for gonz in boston..

but miggy isn’t exactly a nobody

inleylandwetrust
3 years 9 months ago

No clue. 

NickinIthaca
3 years 9 months ago

Gonzalez’s fielding is better?

coolstorybro222
3 years 9 months ago

Most sports writers heavily favor boston and the players for boston.

0bsessions
3 years 9 months ago

The only conceivable rationale I can come up with is that a bunch of people were going by RBI. Taking a look at the numbers, this theory holds an unfortunate amount of water. Of eighteen winners, only Phillips, McCann and Upton didn’t lead their respective positions (By league) in RBI. More in-depth on that, every single AL winner led his position in RBI.

It’s the absolute only way I can make any sense of this.

johnsilver
3 years 9 months ago

May come into play he is a horrific defender some there. remember back in ’06 when Ortiz put up that monster season of 54 HR, 137 RBI, (led league) 1.049 OPS and yet finished *3rd* in MVP voting? Probably cause he was/is a DH, well Cabrerra is a DH playing 1B might be the reason he was robbed this year and the ones in charge probably don’t care for it.. Yep..It ain’t right, I agree.

inleylandwetrust
3 years 9 months ago

He isn’t even that bad of a fielder anymore. He certainly isn’t “good” but he’s definitely improving and coming pretty darn close to being at least league average.

0bsessions
3 years 9 months ago

UZR’s got him holding pretty steady with his career numbers of “a pretty bad fielder.” He was bottom five in the MLB for first basemen with at least 1,000 innings in the field (For what it’s worth, B-R’s dWAR has him at his worst since coming to Detroit). He’s improving, I guess (In the sense that just putting his glove in the air and hoping for the best Scottie Smalls style would be considered an improvement on prior output), but he’s still well below average.

That all said, none of this should have the slightest bearing on Silver Slugger. This was a severe oversight.

0bsessions
3 years 9 months ago

Even as a Red Sox fan I can admit it makes no sense. I didn’t really follow Cabrera too closely, but yeah, I’m having trouble finding an offensive stat that Gonzalez beats Cabrera in (RBI is pretty much it). His offensive numbers were so much better, in fact, that he managed to outWAR Gonzalez despite an enormous disparity between their defense (10.7 UZR for Gonzalez, -3.8 for Cabrera).

I really don’t understand how you can screw up something like this so completely. While the Gold Gloves are generally a botch job, there’s a million and one conflicting defensive metrics out there that people can justify anything with. The Silver Sluggers have a minor amount of room for debate in regards to who the best hitter at a position is, but this one is just so egregiously wrong that it’s shameful.

I’d cite exposure, but Cabrera made the playoffs and Gonzalez didn’t. Best guess is Gonzo was the shiny new toy in the AL and that swayed some people, some people probably voted for RBI and the rest were on drugs (I’d say drunk, but that may have swayed a few more votes in Cabrera’s favor).

johnsilver
3 years 9 months ago

Awards in general are getting to the point of having no meaning IMO. How on earth could Ells have gotten the GG for example? I read that flatter piece written by Speier at WEEI and wanted to puke. While he has gotten some better, Ells is not even close to Crisp as a CF. Jeter last year as the GG SS.

It is high time for writers to take over these awards since BB itself is botching them badly, maybe they can get some right at least.

0bsessions
3 years 9 months ago

Ellsbury led the AL in UZR for a center fielder, it’s easily arguable he deserved a Gold Glove. Any of him, Jackson or Bourjos would’ve been a fine choice.

rainyperez
3 years 9 months ago

I’d like to see Giants take a chance on Sizemore he can be a great stepping stone and mentor to Gary Brown. I just hope he doesn’t teach Brown how to make his knees explode…

MLB Talk
3 years 9 months ago

Pujols go an award for defense? He had 14 errors

MetsMagic
3 years 9 months ago

When you get to more balls, you most likely make more errors. Pujols range has been incredible for years. 

threeeds
3 years 9 months ago

Not to mention he’s just a very smart player all around. Hitting (obviously), base-running, and fielding.

nathanalext
3 years 9 months ago

Conversation for Votto to Seattle starts (and probably ends) with Felix Hernandez’ name.

Guest
3 years 9 months ago

lets not get carried away.

3 years 9 months ago

Joey Votto is worth every bit of Felix Hernandes

Guest
3 years 9 months ago

3 years of Felix >>>>>>>>> 2 Years of Votto

all day, everyday

harmony55
3 years 9 months ago

Felix Hernandez has been valued at 18.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) over the past three seasons while Joey Votto has been valued at 18.9 WAR over the same period. And we’re talking two years of Joey Votto at $26.5 million to three years of Felix Hernandez at $58 million.

I’m a huge fan of Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners, but Hernandez is no deity.

livingpaint
3 years 9 months ago

Look at what the likes of Fister did leaving the anemic Mariners’ offense… Felix would be comparable to Verlander or CC-like wins or more. There’s always the person out there who would say “a pitcher only pitches every 5 days but Votto would play every day” but you look at how a poorly pitched game could leave your team in a hole when it means something (look at the World Series this year). Poor pitching choices on each team managed to lose an entire game for Cards and the Rangers respectively. Rangers made two of those mistakes and guess who lost? Even Pineda’s outings this year were comparable if not a little better than Felix’s first full year. Anyhow, a great hitter could always be pitched around but a great pitcher needs more of a team effort to beat. And i’ll say it before some smart alec says it… YES “one HR could win the game against a great pitcher” but Im trying to compare the Votto (hitter) to Felix (pitcher) value is different and could lean towards the pitcher. If every time someone like Pujols came to the plate and every team decides to walk him or successfully pitch around him, his numbers would suck.  You can’t really “hit” around a good pitcher unless they’re having a bad outing.

3 years 9 months ago

I have seen Voto and he is good but not great

mccollum.4
3 years 8 months ago

then you didnt see a good game….the dude is a BEAST!  and it is Votto…

3 years 8 months ago

Something you can count on every game that Votto plays in, is that he is going to do something to help you win just about every game he plays in. Its a rare occurrence for him not to contribute something every day. 

Starting Pitchers only contribute on the field every 5th game or so.

xthetouristx
3 years 9 months ago

Maybe if the Mariners could extend Votto 3 extra years AND get Grandal and Seattle adds nothing.

Rabbitov
3 years 9 months ago

I bet even Dave Cameron has trouble taking Dave Cameron seriously. 

3 years 9 months ago

There’s no way the Reds make that trade…sure makes sense from an M’s standpoint, the Reds are contenders so why would they trade one of the very best players in the game for multiple peices?  WAR value or not, I’d rather have one guy who is a 7 WAR player than 3-4 players who total to 6-7 WAR.  Only if the Reds were in rebuild/payroll slash mode, which they surely aren’t, would they go for it.  

One could bring up more specifics/numbers to argue against it and Dave would find some other numbers to refute it, because he is an M’s fan who is thinking with his heart on this one 😀 .

harmony55
3 years 9 months ago

I respect Dave Cameron’s body of work, but he’s off-base on this one. Three expensive years of Felix Hernandez would be the starting point for a package headed by two moderately priced years of Joey Votto.

3 years 9 months ago

hahahah, false.

nathanalext
3 years 9 months ago

LOL.. My point was, in order for Jocketty to even start a conversation surrounding Votto, he’d have to be blown away. 

Jack Z: We have a package of players we’d like to offer for Votto.
Walt J: Hernandez one of them?
Jack Z: No.
Walt J: There’s your answer.

I know the Mariners would never consider trading Hernandez for Votto. Likewise, Votto probably isn’t going anywhere.

Guest
3 years 9 months ago

pineda is a great starting point, its the rest of the package that doesn’t add up..

if felix were involved it would be Votto+ pieces

nathanalext
3 years 9 months ago

Either way, it’s still going to take a huge overpay by any team (including the Mariners) to acquire Votto. So much so that I don’t think anybody will do it. If they do, as a Reds fan, I know I’d be ecstatic for the package that acquires him. Jocketty has all the leverage here.

0bsessions
3 years 9 months ago

Then Jocketty should be fired. If you’ve got an elite position player with limited team control, if someone starts making offer, you give it a listen.

You’d have to pay some attention if he came in offering Pineda and Ackley plus prospects. That sure as heck beats the return they’d get from compensation picks.

Given, that’d be an awful move on the Mariners’ part and I don’t see much point in them going after Votto now. He’s coming off of another great season and only under team control for two more years. They’d be better off going after Fielder since he’ll only cost money and a second round draft pick. That being said, the Mariners have more to offer than Hernandez and dismissing a trade out of turn because they wouldn’t give him up for someone with maybe half of his trade value is ignorant.

dshires4
3 years 9 months ago

People are absurdly overvaluing the two years Votto is going to play for the Reds, rather than the package he’d return in a trade, than the prospects he’d return two years from now. The package of prospects is going to be far greater than the prospects he’ll return as a Type-A free agent. And there’s no guarantee he’ll sign after these two years.

Makes no sense to hold onto a player when the return is more valuable to the organization than the single player. Contrary to popular belief, baseball will be played after 2012, so Votto only has marginal value to the Reds for the long term at this moment.

nathanalext
3 years 9 months ago

That may be true, but, the Reds do value him too much in the short term to think about dealing him for the long term. I don’t recall anywhere saying the Reds won’t be contenders either next year or the year after. If they were in rebuilding mode, I’d think it’d be easier to acquire him. They are not. They’ve rebuilt to the point they are now (and have prospects stuck because of it that are more likely to be traded than Votto). 

dshires4
3 years 9 months ago

I am well aware of everything you said, but there’s no untouchable player in baseball, unless you include absurd contracts. Votto is a premium player that the Reds know they won’t be able to afford once he hits free agency. And the system is rather pitching dry. If some team comes calling, there’s a point at which Votto would no longer be Red, no matter how much people expect them to contend.

nathanalext
3 years 9 months ago

Right, but, I still think that the price would be too much for any team to do which is what I’ve been saying all along. I never said he was untouchable. Heck, I love Votto, but, I’d love for someone to be crazy enough to put a package together to acquire him, simply because I am very confident that said package would be overwhelming. For instance, I loved the package that KC got for trading Grienke or Toronto for Halladay. It’d take something similar to acquire Votto. I just don’t think anybody would bite.

BobbyJohn
3 years 9 months ago

The Rockies are looking for rotation help, too, and I am hoping they at least do a little homework on Bedard. I’d much rather see him in their rotation next year than Aaron Cook.

johnsilver
3 years 9 months ago

No offense, but the Rockies are almost always looking for rotation help, as in 3+.

3 years 9 months ago

Dave Cameron’s plan to acquire Joey Votto reminded me of this great George Costanza quote:
“I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn’t have to give up that much…I think I got it. How ’bout this? How ’bout this? We trade Jim Leyritz and Bernie Williams, for Barry Bonds, huh? Whadda ya think? That way you have Griffey and Bonds, in the same outfield! Now you got a team! Ha ha ha.”

3 years 9 months ago

After reading the piece on the M’s offseason wishlist I would interchange Moyer with a guy like Chris Capuano who at least has some more gas left in the tank than a 48 year old guy. Sure you’d have to pay about 600K more for Cap, but you’d be getting better innings and strike ot rate is higher than Moyer’s would be at this stage in his career…

Josh Bresser
3 years 9 months ago

2 crappy pitchers and a couple of unproven prospects for a gold glove winning, MVP candidate (and winner in 2010) as well as one of our top ten prospects…yeah, no.

3 years 9 months ago

lol? Michael Pineda is better than any pitcher in the Reds current staff. League is a far cry from “crappy” as well.

Josh Bresser
3 years 9 months ago

Yeah, his 9-10 record is really indicative of that….

oh, and he doesn’t touch Cueto. 

harmony55
3 years 9 months ago

In 2011, Johnny Cueto had a FIP of 3.45, an xFIP of 3.90 and 2.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Michael Pineda, who is three years younger than Cueto, had a FIP of 3.42, an xFIP of 3.53 and 3.4 WAR.

Won/loss records represent a poor measure of a starter’s effectiveness. However, Cueto recorded nine wins in 24 starts playing for a team that was tied for second in the National League in runs scored with 735. Pineda recorded nine wins in 28 starts for a team that finished dead last in the majors with 556 runs scored.

3 years 8 months ago

Yes but your also forgetting up until the very end of the season Cueto had the best ERA in the entire national league.  I know ERA is not everything by far.  You can’t just look at WAR and FIP and xFIP as what makes a good pitcher good.  Cueto is getting better and better each season since he came up to the bigs.  This Pineda person I only know cause he was in the top prospect lists.  Major league wise he has not really proved very much at all.

harmony55
3 years 8 months ago

“Major league wise he has not really proved very much at all.”

Michael Pineda has already made an appearance in an All Star Game, something that Johnny Cueto has failed to achieve in his four seasons.

3 years 8 months ago

Yeah, and I suppose you think King Felix’s 14-14 record makes him an average pitcher.

mistermonkey
3 years 9 months ago

The Mariners need a legit 3B, a legit LF, and a two more legit starters to go with Felix, Pineda and Vargas (who should really be a #4 or #5 starter). Votto would be a nice pickup, obviously, but I’d rather just take my chances with Smoak and Carp at 1B and DH and fill the glaring needs first. But man, pickings are slim at 3B and LF this offseason. So, the Mariners should maybe pony up for Wilson and Jackson, and just hope that Figgins somehow improves (fat chance, sure) and that Wells/Robinson produce okay in LF. Anyway, Felix/Wilson/Jackson/Pineda/Vargas could be a killer rotation for years to come, and within budget…

harmony55
3 years 9 months ago

The Mariners need hitters, not pitchers such as C.J. Wilson and Edwin Jackson, who will command long-term contracts.

ESPN’s Keith Law recently wrote that the Mariners by 2013 might have baseball’s best rotation with Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, James Paxton, Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker (with Jason Vargas and Blake Beaven filling in until some of the latter are ready).

mistermonkey
3 years 9 months ago

Problem is, though, that there aren’t many hitters on the FA market this year who can help them going forward without a massive overpay. Reyes/Fielder/Ramirez aren’t going to Seattle unless they get a mega-contract, and all of those guys are risky (Ramirez due to age). So, you’d be talking Willingham, Crisp, Dejesus, etc. (maybe Sizemore, who’d be intriguing but also risky). Might be better to sign one or two of the many decent starters available to a four or five year contract and then trade from strength for offense. Or I suppose they could just punt 2012 and play for 2013.

Anyway, I’m just bummed that the Mariners are in this position. Figgins has been such a bust and it’s killing them.

livingpaint
3 years 9 months ago

JackZ might try the bad egg for bad egg trade like he did with Silva and Bradley. Both of them were busts but the prospect of new scenery was there. If we did something similar with Figgins with say Alphoso Soriano (who did pretty well when he was in the AL and consistently hits double digit HRs a year) for a LF hole filler or even going Barry Zito to fill a SP goal and take a flyer on Grady Sizemore for LF. We’d be rid of Figgins and could see if we could make some magic like we had with Kennedy (first half version). I still think they should grab people that hit well at Safeco specifically. Damon, Guerrero, Young, Sizemore, Orlando Cabrera… Then grab a decent RBI guy out of the FA pool, we should be in good sense to elicit better dealings come mid season trade time or have a team that starts gelling and getting butts in seats around here.

王威評
3 years 9 months ago

Pineda alone is not gonna get you Votto. More like Montero.
A good potential pitcher rookie for a A good potential power bat.

Sounds fair. 

livingpaint
3 years 8 months ago

 My comment here had nothing to do with Votto. In fact, it took the Votto discussion out of the equation.

3 years 9 months ago

Their pitching is always good in Seattle, but their bullpen needs to be fortified before the rotation. A quality closer and set up man would help immensley and as far as third base goes I would definitely take a stab at trying to get Shumaker from St. Louis if they re-sign Furcal. I know he’s not a natural third basemen but he has shown he can adapt to almost any position plus he gives a lineup with a horrendous average some stability in the middle hitting 5th or 6th. LF, I would continue to develop Wells and platoon him again, but they do need to get some CF insurance so the Pagan deal would be a big plus. Ichiro isn’t necessarily declining rapidly but the guy is human and will run out of steam soon so maybe take a flier on Sizemore with an incentive laden deal. Either way as long as they can retain the rotation they have and add a couple of bats they will be decent.

3 years 9 months ago

Brandon League isn’t a quality closer?

Guest
3 years 9 months ago

not really no

3 years 8 months ago

Care to elaborate?

Guest
3 years 8 months ago

career FIP of 3.54

3 years 8 months ago

But, last season: 2.78 FIP, 3.09 xFIP

livingpaint
3 years 9 months ago

yeah, its not like he made the All Star team his first year as a closer or anything… hehehe  had we given him more opportunities, he would have had valverde numbers or better.

Guest
3 years 8 months ago

the earth is flat!!

nathanalext
3 years 9 months ago

Saves are the most over-rated stat. Closers are the most over-rated position.

3 years 8 months ago

I understand this. However, League is still a good reliever. The poster I was replying to stated that the M’s “needed a good closer” which inspired my initial reply.

3 years 9 months ago

I’m glad you brought up that League made the all-star team; who else were they going to take from that team? League is pedestrian at best, and closers are invaluable to a team in today’s age. Pitcher’s are expected to go 6-7 innings not a complete game. So I would be very interested for you to bring that same comment to guys like Mariano Rivera, Papelbon, and Heath Bell and see if they say that they are over-rated. I don’t know about you, but if I need a pitcher to get me those last 3-6 outs I am not going to be calling a mop-up man. If you think for one second that the Yankees would have won all those years without Rivera I would love to hear who would be pitching instead.

3 years 8 months ago

League would have been on the AS roster regardless. Pineda substituted for Felix, who couldn’t play because he pitched the day before the AS break.

nathanalext
3 years 9 months ago

I give up. I’m not going to get into a argument over a sarcastic joke. Please, please understand. I KNOW THAT TRADE IS NEVER, EVER, EVER GOING TO HAPPEN! That was the point!

Gator4444
3 years 9 months ago

You’re right.  They need much more than Votto. 

Taskmaster75
3 years 9 months ago

Might be better off going for someone like Kemp honestly.

NickinIthaca
3 years 9 months ago

You forgot….  He’ll become the ace after Felix is traded to the Yankees next offseason.

And yes, that is sarcasm…

3 years 9 months ago

He never said “Smoak will provide just as much value as Joey Votto next season.” He’s obviously stating that under the hope/belief that Smoak will have a full season under his belt next year as a serviceable first baseman, which isn’t at all as baseless as you might think. He had a terrible July/August thanks to a thumb injury he played through, and rebounded when he returned with a good September. Excluding 6/25 to 8/12 (From around when Smoak’s thumb injury was first reported up until he broke his nose on a bad hop after returning from a few days off thanks to that same thumb injury), Smoak’s line was .270/.360/.470 and, with those numbers, I’d take my chances on a full season of healthy Smoak over giving up Pineda & League + for Votto and Grandal.

angryredmenace
3 years 9 months ago

If a stub first baseman is a dime a dozen, why don’t The Mariners have a stud first baseman?

0bsessions
3 years 9 months ago

If MLB conspiracy nuts are accurate, because Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein are BFFs.

More directly on point, they’re a dime a dozen in comparison to true lock-down ace pitchers like Hernandez. King Felix is, without argument, a top three pitcher in the MLB right now. Votto probably ranks somewhere between 5-10 amongst position players overall.

Flash back a decade: would you trade Pedro Martinez straight up for Jeff Bagwell?

3 years 9 months ago

that package is not quite the same as the one the Jays received. That package might end up being of similar value ultimately, but the phillies prospects were more highly regarded at the time of the trade.

cyberboo
3 years 9 months ago

Joey Votto has been beaten to death on the Jays boards, yet most of the intelligent fans agreed that the Jays would lose Escobar, Alvarez, plus a combination of Hutchison, Molina, Nicolino, Marisnick, Sierra, to obtain Votto right now.  That is too much to give up for a first baseman, regardless who it is.  To obtain Votto, the Jays would open three more holes on their roster, since Hechevarria isn’t ready and the problem right now is 2nd base, not first – since Lind is more than capable of putting up similar numbers as he proved in 09.