Quick Hits: Myron, Beltre, Trout, Free Agent Values

Chuck Myron, lead writer for our sister site Hoops Rumors and occasional MLBTR contributor, has co-written an excellent book called Hits and Misses in the Baseball Draft. Authors Myron and Alan Maimon have created a must-read for any baseball fan hoping to understand why so many of the best young players fail to make meaningful contributions in The Show, and so many teams make the wrong choices on draft day. Please check out Hits and Misses in the Baseball Draft; we think you'll like it. Note, also, that if you are planning a trip to Florida for Spring Training, you can meet Chuck and Alan at either of two scheduled book signings. The authors will appear at two Barnes & Noble locations in mid-March: in Clearwater on March 14 at 7pm and in Fort Myers on March 15 at 3pm.

Moving on, here are some notes from around the league for your Thursday evening reading…

  • Engel Beltre and Michael Choice will both be fighting for roster spots in Spring Training, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, but Beltre is the favorite to stick due to the fact that he is out of options. The Rangers aren't likely to let him go, and while Choice could help as a right-handed option in a DH platoon, Texas is wary that such a limited role could hinder his development.
  • In an effort to prove Mike Trout's sky-high value without relying on advanced metrics, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs adds the 2013 production of Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo (using standard stats such as singles, doubles, triples, homers, steals, etc.) and subtracts Mike Trout's numbers. Cameron finds that the result is surprisingly similar to Eric Young's 2013 totals. Because Young was acquired for a replacement-level arm, Cameron suggests that acquiring a partner to match the output is nearly free. In the end, he suggests that Trout is worth more than Choo and Ellsbury combined.
  • In a subscription-only piece, R.J. Anderson of Baseball Prospectus looks at how the players he ranked in his Top 50 stacked up to the expected average annual value he laid out prior to the offseason. Anderson concludes that he underestimated the market for back-end starters, setup men and veterans with perceivable upside remaining. Because of that last category, he wonders if names like Asdrubal Cabrera and Chad Billingsley could see larger paydays than many are expecting next winter.
  • Sticking with Baseball Prospectus, Phil Hughes tops a free list of nine players that the minds at B-Pro expect to see show improvement in 2014. Also appearing on the list are Matt CainCC Sabathia and Brett Lawrie, amongst others.
  • WEEI.com's Alex Speier breaks down the numerous Spring Training decisions facing the Red Sox, including homegrown prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. and reclamation project Grady Sizemore fighting for center field (Speier writes that it's Bradley's job to lose). Within the piece, Speier wonders if spring struggles from Middlebrooks would make the Red Sox reconsider their stance on Stephen Drew.


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40 Comments on "Quick Hits: Myron, Beltre, Trout, Free Agent Values"


Rally Weimaraner
1 year 5 months ago

I am major Mike Trout fan, how can you not be the kid is an awesome player, but Dave Cameron consistently over values him. Adding together the bloated AAV of Choo and Ellsbury’s FA contract is not a good way to determine Mike Trout’s value. No player is worth 40-50 MM, for perspectives sake that would equal 26-33% of the Angels 2014 payroll or 17-21% of the Dodgers 2014 payroll.

johnsilver
1 year 5 months ago

I remember when Beltre went to Texas in that Gagne deal. He was the guy the Rangers really wanted. I didn’t think Murphy would ever pan out, though he really did and it worked out.

Beltre was one of those CLASSIC guys the “buscoes” (spelling) would grab up, train to do nothing but run 60yd dashes and hit meatballs thrown up by some yo yo at a simulated tryout for general managers, FO personnel. Thank goodness they have ceased signing guys with poor attitudes like beltre, wild hacker at legit pitching like him since to exorbitant bonus money.

It’s one thing to throw away bonus cash to kids and them been legit raw talent, but Texas had another 6 years to see this guy.. He was a wild swinger, no discipline.

I am surprised they kept him this long to be honest.

Jeffy25
1 year 5 months ago

I am so lost by this comment

rouscher
1 year 5 months ago

If we ever see a 400 million or jor 40 million a year it would start at age 26 for mike trout, if i were him, just by out your time and get low money, come age 26 he’ll be rolling in money, he’d be smart to wait till free agency

Metsfan93
1 year 5 months ago

That plan would be awesome if Mike Trout could guarantee a clean bill of health and zero down years between now and then, but he can’t. And when confronted with reportedly 160 million dollars plus the possibility of more around age 28 or 29 if he does stay healthy, that could be tempting.

Jeffy25
1 year 5 months ago

He could also…..get better.

Which isn’t unreasonable to believe.

LazerTown
1 year 5 months ago

if he can stay healthy though. If he gets $150M he is set for life. And still enters free agency at a reasonable age. Guarantee me 150M or 90% shot of $200M($180M) and I would take the guarantee. It is enough money already where I don’t think he needs to worry about going to town.

itstheduke
1 year 5 months ago

$31.50 for a paperback?

Mike89
1 year 5 months ago

Is Dave Cameron trying to tell me that Mets have a 10 WAR Eric Young right now? I guess that’s where Sandy got his 90 wins today from

Jack
1 year 5 months ago

Could Trout be the next Mattingly? I just think its unrealistic to think Trout will produce these sort of numbers for the next 10-15 years. History has shown so many players first few years being incredible then they come back to the pack with a 5-6 War, especially in this modern age. Yes he will play at an allstar level for years to come, but this 8-11 war that everyone thinks he will produce for the next 10 years is insane.

Stuart Brown
1 year 5 months ago

It’s not unheard of, but it’s going to be elite talents that did it and continue to do it. Bonds basically did it from ’89 to ’98, ages 24 to 33. He averaged about 8.5 WAR per season through those 10 seasons. Willie Mays, ’54 to ’66, 23 to 35, about 10 WAR per season. Pujols, ’03 to ’10, 23 to 30, around 8.5 WAR per season.

Obviously it’s still very early in his career, but Trout has the makings of a generational player. Should you expect him to continue producing at this level? Maybe not, but again, it’s not unheard of.

teakayfortoowon
1 year 5 months ago

Trout has more WAR at 21 than Mattingly did at 25, he’s a significantly better player.

Douglas Bath
1 year 5 months ago

The best comparisons I can think of for “what if this is his best ball” would be Vada Pinson and Cesar Cedeno. Both were great players at age 21 and by 27 were on the decline. Trout is better than those guys of course.

Anthony Hughes
1 year 5 months ago

There’s a decent chance that Billingsley won’t hit the open market after the season. The Dodgers hold a $14MM option on him for 2015, with a $3MM buyout. So essentially, they have to decide if he’s worth a one year, $11MM deal. Considering that they just gave Dan Haren a one year, $10MM deal to be a fourth starter, I think that if Billingsley comes back and looks good, that’s an option they will exercise.

ztoa
1 year 5 months ago

Trout’s skyrocket value is tied directly to his low pre-arb salary. Once you pay the man 30 MM or more his value is reduced 10-20 fold. If you say he’s worth 48.5 (2 yr avg fangraphs) then that’s 48.5x ROI for 2014, in 2015 if he’s paid AVV 30 MM that’s only 1.61x ROI.

Lance
1 year 5 months ago

I worked with an old timer years ago who told me, “what they (management) think of you, they tell you every two weeks (paycheck)” what someone is worth is relative. in another few years, if the Dodgers and Yankees show interest in FA Trout (assuming he’s healthy and producing numbers like he has) then 400 million over 10 years is not unreasonable. Was ARod worth his record setting contract with Texas? Depends on how you define “worth.” He produced three of the greatest seasons in MLB history and that the Rangers were lousy were not his fault. But what was his fault was the fact Alex did little or nothing to market the Rangers. He rarely appeared for public/charity events and I can’t really remember him being on talk shows. Rodriguez could have been as popular as Aikman but instead, the fans had a “don’t let the door hit you in the butt” attitude when he was traded away in spite of having averaged 50 HR and 130 RBIS. Why the Yankees gave him the contract they did when he had opted out of that first contract was one of the major mysteries of the universe.

Michael Letto
1 year 5 months ago

31.50 for a book!? are you out of your mind?

Yankees420
1 year 5 months ago

But you can buy it used for the low low price of $85.49! What are you waiting for?!

Governator88
1 year 5 months ago

Sadly Trout is worth whatever he wants to be worth.