Trade Rumors Apps
- White Sox To Sign Adam LaRoche
- Dodgers Acquire Joel Peralta
- Athletics Sign Billy Butler
- White Sox Sign Zach Duke
- Marlins Sign Giancarlo Stanton To 13-Year, $325MM Extension
- Blue Jays Sign Russell Martin
- Braves, Cardinals Trade Jason Heyward For Shelby Miller
- Tigers Exercise Alex Avila's Option
- Diamondbacks Acquire Jeremy Hellickson
- Pirates Sign A.J. Burnett
- Rangers Extend Jon Daniels, Thad Levine
- Jays, Tigers Swap Gose For Travis
- Pirates Acquire Francisco Cervelli For Justin Wilson
- Tigers Re-Sign Victor Martinez
- 2014-15 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions
- Non-Tender Candidates
- Trade Rumors iOS App
- Trade Rumors Android App
- MLBTR Podcast
- 2014-15 MLB Free Agent Tracker
- 2015 MLB Free Agent List
- 2014-15 Offseason Outlooks
- 2014-15 Free Agent Profiles
- Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2015
- Free Agent Contest Leaderboard
- Reverse Standings
- 2016 MLB Free Agent List
- Transaction Tracker
- DFA Tracker
- Agency Database
- Hot Stove Glossary
- MLBTR On Facebook
- MLBTR On Twitter
- MLBTR Mobile
- MLBTR On Kindle
- Team Twitter/RSS Feeds
- Team Facebook Pages
- Hoops Rumors
- Pro Football Rumors
- Indians Acquire Charles Brewer
- Quick Hits: Twins, Albers, Bavasi, Scherzer
- Dodgers Acquire Mike Bolsinger, Designate Jarret Martin
- AL East Notes: Yankees Roster, Joyce, Rays Managerial Finalists
- Minor Moves: Lannan, Cisnero, Savery, Laffey, Britton, Triunfel
- Pablo Sandoval Rumors: Saturday
- Orioles To Sign Rey Navarro To Major League Deal
- NL Notes: Kemp, Padres, Tomas, Phillies
- MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Episode 7
- West Notes: Giants, Baldoquin, Hultzen
- Central Notes: Swisher, Hunter, Reds, Blanco
- Twins Win Bidding For Hyeon-jong Yang
- Week In Review: 11/15/14 – 11/21/14
- Wily Mo Pena Becomes Free Agent; Twins Interested
- Braves Release Venters, Designate Pena
MLBTR Mailing List
Rumors by team
- Angels Rumors
- Astros Rumors
- Athletics Rumors
- Blue Jays Rumors
- Braves Rumors
- Brewers Rumors
- Cardinals Rumors
- Cubs Rumors
- Diamondbacks Rumors
- Dodgers Rumors
- Giants Rumors
- Indians Rumors
- Mariners Rumors
- Marlins Rumors
- Mets Rumors
- Nationals Rumors
- Orioles Rumors
- Padres Rumors
- Phillies Rumors
- Pirates Rumors
- Rangers Rumors
- Rays Rumors
- Red Sox Rumors
- Reds Rumors
- Rockies Rumors
- Royals Rumors
- Tigers Rumors
- Twins Rumors
- White Sox Rumors
- Yankees Rumors
Jay Bruce Rumors
The Reds have had preliminary extension talks with the agents for Jay Bruce and Joey Votto, and those aren't the only players GM Walt Jocketty is thinking of extending. Here are the details, from John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer:
- Jocketty says the extension Troy Tulowitzki signed will probably figure into discussions with Votto "to some extent."
- Free agent deals have been more lucrative than Jocketty expected so far this offseason.
- The Reds continue to talk to Arthur Rhodes, who's a Philadelphia target, and Miguel Cairo. Jocketty says he expects to reach a deal with Cairo.
- The Reds are also making progress on an extension with Bronson Arroyo. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe hears (on Twitter) that the talks are hovering around three years and $35MM with some deferred money. Arroyo, writes Cafardo, is "not biting yet."
Agent Matt Sosnick has two clients in their arbitration years, but right now extension talks for Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins and Jay Bruce of the Reds aren't far beyond the infancy stages. Here's what Sosnick told Clark Spencer of The Miami Herald regarding a possible deal for Nolasco…
"I would say certainly nothing's going to happen soon," said the agent. "But I would be surprised if something didn't end up happening. We have had some conversations and I think we've made some progress."
Nolasco earned $3.8MM in his second (of four as a Super Two) year of arbitration, but back in September we heard that "a significant gulf" existed between the two sides during negotiations. More recently the club indicated that signing Dan Uggla long-term was their first priority, but after today's trade Nolasco presumably moved up on the list. The 27-year-old righty (28 next month) pitched to a 4.51 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 157 2/3 innings this season.
As for Bruce, here's what MLB.com's Mark Sheldon passes along…
"If Jay can get compensated fairly over his arbitration years and into his free agency years, we're open to it," Sosnick said. "If it makes financial sense, we'll look at it. There is no hesitation on Jay's part to stay in Cincinnati for as long as possible. He loves it there."
Bruce is due a significant raise as he enters his first year of arbitration (also a Super Two), and he's expressed interest a long-term deal in the past. Perhaps Nick Markakis' six-year, $66MM deal can be used as framework. Bruce had a monster season at age 23, hitting .281/.353/.493 with 25 homers.
Two years ago today the Athletics acquired Matt Holliday from the Rockies in exchange for Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street, and Greg Smith. Holliday hit .286/.378/.454 in exactly 400 plate appearances with Oakland before being dealt to the Cardinals for a package led by Brett Wallace at the 2009 trade deadline.
Street has battled injuries but has been solid when on the mound for Colorado, pitching to a 3.30 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 109 innings. Smith has appeared in just eight games for the Rox (all starts), putting up a 6.23 ERA. The real get was CarGo, who will certainly be in the MVP mix after a .336/.376/.598 season with 34 doubles, 34 homers, 26 stolen bases, and a batting title.
The hot stove league will certainly bring us more blockbuster trades, but for now you'll have to settle for this long collection of links, the best the blogosphere had to offer this week…
- SPANdemonium interviews Twins prospect Niko Goodrum.
- M.C. Antil reflects on Bobby Cox's time as a GM and manager (part one, part two).
- We Should Be GMs lists the longest tenured player on all 30 teams.
- Sabernomics dispels some hot stove myths.
- U.S.S. Mariner lays out their plan for Seattle's offseason.
- FanSpeak does the same, just for the Baltimore Orioles.
- Meanwhile, Prospect Insider comes up with some trade ideas for the Mariners.
- Baseball Time In Arlington examines the idea of the Rangers signing Carl Crawford.
- Meet The Mess looks at some potential free agent targets for the Mets.
- Royals Review wonders who the "real get" in the David DeJesus trade is.
- At Home Plate thinks the DeJesus deal shows that Kansas City wants to win.
- Drunk Jays Fans chimes in on Zack Greinke and the Blue Jays as only they can.
- The Process Report explains why trading B.J. Upton now makes sense for the Rays.
- Ivy Report believes the Cubs need to strike fast and trade for Adrian Gonzalez.
- SD Sports Net lists some outfielders that could help the Padres next year.
- Athletics Nation provides a scouting report on Hisashi Iwakuma with some help from PitchFX.
- Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness looks at Tsuyoshi Nishioka as a second base option for the Dodgers.
- Red Sox Beacon muses about Boston picking up David Ortiz's option.
- Wahoo Blues looks at some backup plans for the Indians in case Carlos Santana has a setback from his knee injury.
- Examiner wonders if a Prince Fielder for Edwin Jackson trade makes sense.
- Analyze This looks at Jorge de la Rosa as a dark horse free agent.
- Yankeeist examines some designated hitter options for the Yankees.
- Baseball Analytics breaks down Ryan Howard's fall from grace.
- Redleg Nation wants to discuss how valuable Jay Bruce is.
- True Grich rants about the Angels and their offseason.
- Crashburn Alley reflects on Jamie Moyer's playing career.
- Mets Gazette provided part one of their top 50 free agents list with predictions. Here's Tim Dierkes' list for comparison.
- Fantasy Rundown compiles links for all of the various prospect lists out there.
- Last, but certainly not least, Pine Tar And Pocket Protectors provides your 2011 Montreal Expos roster.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Full Story | Comments | Categories: Adrian Gonzalez | B.J. Upton | Baltimore Orioles | Baseball Blogs Weigh In | Boston Red Sox | Carl Crawford | Carlos Santana | Chicago Cubs | Chicago White Sox | Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Indians | David DeJesus | David Ortiz | Edwin Jackson | Hisashi Iwakuma | Jamie Moyer | Jay Bruce | Jorge de la Rosa | Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers | Minnesota Twins | Montreal Expos | New York Mets | New York Yankees | Oakland Athletics | Philadelphia Phillies | Prince Fielder | Ryan Howard | San Diego Padres | Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays | Tsuyoshi Nishioka | Zack Greinke
Reds GM Walt Jocketty told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he doesn’t expect to sign a big name free agent this winter. Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee will likely be playing elsewhere next year, though the Reds will boost payroll in 2011.
“I’m always trying to do something, but [signing a top free agent] would be pretty tough,” Jocketty said.
The Reds have had preliminary talks with the agents for Miguel Cairo, Ramon Hernandez and Arthur Rhodes, but Jocketty says he hasn’t yet exchanged potential salaries. The Reds have not spoken to Bronson Arroyo about an extension since picking up his option last week and they are not currently discussing long-term deals with Joey Votto or Jay Bruce.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote yesterday that he expected the Reds to complete a two-year extension with Arroyo this week. Jocketty has said he'd like to reach a deal before the 2011 season begins, but the potential contract may not become a priority until later this offseason.
Twenty players including Reds right fielder Jay Bruce and Indians pitcher Chris Perez have qualified for Super Two status, according to C. Trent Rosecrans of CBSSports.com. Evan Longoria has also made the cutoff but will not reap the benefits as he signed a long-term deal with the Rays in April of 2008.
Players with two years and 122 days of service were granted Super Two status this winter. Prior to this year, no player was awarded Super Two status with less than two years and 130 days of service time. MLBTradeRumors first reported the lowering of the cutoff in June.
Super Twos get to go to arbitration four times instead of the usual three. Players such as Bruce, and Perez are now in line for significant raises in 2011. As for Bruce, the 23-year-old recently said that he would be open to discussing a long-term deal with Cincinnati for "five or six years."
To brush up on exactly what Super Two status means and how one obtains it, you can check out our handy post right here. Below, you will find the complete list of players who have now been granted Super Two status.
Burke Badenhop, Florida 2.143
Travis Buck, Oakland 2.122
Jay Bruce, Cincinnati 2.125
Dana Eveland, Pittsburgh (outrighted) 2.152
Josh Fields, Kansas City 2.159
Armando Galarraga, Detroit 2.148
Alberto Gonzalez, Washington 2.135
Chase Headley, San Diego 2.123
Luke Hochevar, Kansas City 2.151
Jim Johnson, Baltimore 2.165
Kyle Kendrick, Philadelphia 2.159
Jensen Lewis, Cleveland 2.133
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay 2.170
Darren O'Day, Texas 2.128
Ross Ohlendorf, Pittsburgh 2.139
Felipe Paulino, Houston 2.163
Chris Perez, Cleveland 2.136
Ian Stewart, Colorado 2.154
Sean White, Seattle 2.156
Brad Ziegler, Oakland 2.122
Some links as the Rangers look to close out the Yankees at home..
- MLB.com's Jane Lee doesn't expect to see Justin Duchscherer back with the A's in 2011.
- In a piece for RotoAuthority, Tim Dierkes takes a look at the fantasy potential of Jay Bruce.
- Former Mariners skipper Don Wakamatsu is a potential candidate for Buck Showalter's coaching staff in Baltimore, writes Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun. Wakamatsu says that he's still talking to the club about coaching and managerial jobs but declined to name specific teams.
- If the Marlins and Ricky Nolasco can't come to terms on a deal of at least three years, there is a strong chance the Fish will sign him to separate contracts for 2011 and 2012, writes MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. Yesterday, Nolasco's agent said that the two sides are off about 20% on salary.
- Two sources told Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer that Joey Votto can expect to earn close to $7MM in 2011. Our own Ben Nicholson-Smith arrived at a similar conclusion two months ago.
- Jon Heyman of SI tweets that Josh Byrnes would cost the Mets less than Sandy Alderson as Arizona is already paying him through 2015.
- Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com compiled some background info on Byrnes and Alderson.
Agent Matt Sosnick appeared on the Diamond Hoggers' Baseball Show today, and spoke at length about how he became involved in baseball, his experiences in the sport, and a few of his clients. Here are the highlights from the discussion, which you can listen to here:
- Jay Bruce is open to signing a long-term contract with the Reds. "If the Reds felt the same way," Sosnick said. "We'd be open to doing something that was five or six years."
- Sosnick acknowledged that locking up Joey Votto would likely be a higher priority for the club, but cited deals signed by Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki as potential starting points for a Bruce extension.
- As we heard earlier today, Josh Willingham is interested in signing an extension with the Nationals. Sosnick feels that if Willingham were hitting the open market this winter, the 31-year-old could land a multi-year deal worth $10MM annually.
- According to Sosnick, when the Giants made a push for Willingham, the Nats asked for either Jonathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner in return.
- Regarding a possible Ricky Nolasco extension, Sosnick says he and the Marlins agreed on the years, but were off by "about 20%" on salary. The two sides will resume extension talks in November or December, working on a one-year deal in the meantime.
- Adam Dunn is not a Sosnick client, but the agent predicts that Dunn will receive about $40MM for three years this offseason.
We heard yesterday that the Reds are likely to decline their half of the $4MM mutual option on Orlando Cabrera for 2011 and that the club has interest in retaining Jonny Gomes and Ramon Hernandez. Here’s more news on the 2010 NL Central Champs from John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer:
- Devin Mesoraco’s progress could impact the offers the Reds make to Hernandez. Mesoraco, a 22-year-old catcher, had an excellent season at the plate this year. The 2007 first rounder hit .302/.377/.587 at three minor league stops with 26 total homers. He’s now playing in the Arizona Fall League and figures to need more minor league seasoning given his lack of experience in the upper minors.
- The Reds have talked to Arthur Rhodes’ agent about bringing the lefty back in 2011. Rhodes told Fay he’d like to return and talks will resume next week, so there’s a chance the sides work something out before Rhodes hits the open market.
- The Reds expect Jay Bruce to qualify as a Super Two, but they haven’t heard official word yet. Bruce would likely earn a few million if he’s arbitration eligible this year and that commitment would likely affect the Reds’ ability to spend on other players.
- MLBTR's Tim Dierkes heard in June that the Super Two cutoff will be earlier than usual this year and that Bruce will be the Super Two with the fewest days of service time. With just two years and 125 days of service time, Bruce will have less big league experience than any Super Two in recent years.
In a move that has amused those who follow the New York Mets closely, Jeff Francoeur has gone public with his demands to be traded following New York's decision to platoon him with young outfielder Fernando Martinez.
Despite a season line of .241/.294/.385, Francoeur apparently believes a major league team would play him regularly at a position, right field, that averages production of .271/.344/.447. Indeed, Francoeur's line is well below the MLB average at second base (.266/.331/.393).
But we have yet to see how Francoeur's demand for a trade stands up to history. It isn't easy to find comparable performance among right fielders in recent years, and it's even harder to find any who were traded after performing as poorly as Francoeur.
Since 2000, just 31 of the 165 right fielders to amass at least 300 plate appearances posted an OPS+ below 100. Of those 31, only four checked in lower than Francoeur's 2010 OPS+ mark of 82: Richard Hidalgo's 2005 (81), Jeromy Burnitz's 2002 (80), Austin Kearns' 2008 (67) and Jeff Francoeur's own 2008 (72).
Kearns followed his 2008 with a similarly poor 2009 before the Nationals let him walk after last season. Burnitz followed 2002 with a half-season of a 139 OPS+ for the 2003 Mets, earning a trade to Los Angeles for Kole Strayhorn, Jose Diaz and Victor Diaz. Hidalgo never played in the majors again, and Francoeur followed his 2008 with a half-season of 68 OPS+ hitting in 2009, earning a trade to the Mets for Ryan Church.
In other words Jeff Francoeur is the only one from that group to be traded for anything at all. Incidentally, four of the 31 player seasons in right field below 100 OPS+ are from Francoeur. Only three others are on the list more than once: Juan Encarnacion (three times), Alex Rios (twice), Hidalgo (twice) and Burnitz (twice).
Encarnacion is an instructive comparison. His career OPS+ of 97 is better than, but similar to, Francoeur's 91. Encarnacion had additional value because he lacked a platoon split (amazingly, his OPS against both lefties and righties was .758) and had the ability to play center field.
In the middle of an 84 OPS+ season in 2004 at age 28, a year after he posted a 97 OPS+, the Marlins acquired Encarnacion as part of a six-player deal from the Dodgers. He went on to start 46 of Florida's remaining 58 games. His salary ($3.6MM) was roughly equivalent to the $5MM Francoeur earns in 2010.
So there is precedent. It happened one other time.
Among those under 100 OPS+ in right field, Alex Rios had a 96 OPS+ last year when the White Sox took him from the Blue Jays and agreed to pay his entire salary (at $61MM, many times as much as remains on Francoeur's deal). But Rios had three seasons of 120, 122 and 112 OPS+ in 2006-2008 under his belt, success Francoeur hasn't seen since his half-season debut in 2005.
Overwhelmingly, the players performing as poorly as Francoeur, or even demonstrably better, are simply let go, often never to surface again. Trot Nixon's 96 OPS+ in 2006 represented his last season as a regular player. So did Danny Bautista's 85 in 2004 and Derek Bell's 98 in 2000. Jose Guillen's 89 in 2000 got him sent back to the minor leagues by Tampa Bay, then released.
There's also that pesky question: who would Francoeur replace in another team's regular lineup? Of the 20 right fielders in MLB who have played more than half their games in right field this year, Francoeur ranks dead last in OPS+ with 82. The four closest to him? Jay Bruce (96), Ben Zobrist (98), Hunter Pence (102) and Ichiro Suzuki (107). It is safe to say Francoeur won't be replacing any of those players. He'd make a decent platoon partner with Bruce, but… right. Platooning led Francoeur to demand a trade in the first place.
In short, the answer to the title of this piece is: not reasonable at all. Not reasonable in light of his 2010 performance, not reasonable in terms of other right fielders, not reasonable comparatively through recent history.
The next Super Two cutoff will require fewer days of service time than usual, MLBTR has learned. Last year's Super Two cutoff was at two years and 139 days of service time. In previous years, the cutoff was never less than two years and 130 days. However, MLBTR has confirmed with two different team sources that the 2010 cutoff will be two years and most likely 123-125 days. Service time projections may change over the next three months, but the cutoff is likely to be in that range.
The abnormal cutoff is described by one source as an anomaly. But since the cutoff is percentage-based, the reduced service time needed for Super Two in 2010 may be the result of the recent trend in teams holding back MLB-ready prospects until late May or early June. Perhaps once Super Two-based service time manipulation became widespread, it lost its effectiveness.
The top beneficiary of the reduced Super Two requirement is Reds right fielder Jay Bruce. After this season Bruce will have two years and 125 days, and MLBTR has confirmed he'll be the Super Two with the least amount of service time. The Reds delayed his MLB debut until May 27th back in 2008, but he's still going to arbitration four times – starting after this season. Instead of earning $450K in 2011, he'll get millions. Diamondbacks second baseman Tony Abreu is another winner, at two years and 127 days after the season. Abreu can credit agent Scott Boras for fighting for an extra 30 days service time with last year's grievance. Chase Headley, at two years and 123 days after the season, will be the player with the most service time to miss Super Two status.
Looking ahead, a similar early Super Two cutoff after the 2011 season could affect a player like Matt Wieters, who could be at two years and 129 days. However, the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 11th, 2011, and the Super Two process figures to be one issue on the table.