Mets Rumors

Mets Showing Interest In Various Starting Pitchers

By Darragh McDonald | January 5, 2024 at 1:14pm CDT

The Mets are interested in rotation upgrades and appear to be casting a wide net in that search. Jon Heyman of The New York Post lists Hyun Jin Ryu, Sean Manaea and Shota Imanaga as pitchers they are considering. A report from Joel Sherman of The New York Post echoes those names while also adding Dylan Cease and Brandon Woodruff to the list.

The club has already made a couple of moves to bolster a rotation that has changed a lot in the past year. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were traded at last year’s deadline, then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency. The depth also took a hit when it was reported that David Peterson required hip surgery that would prevent him from being with the club at the start of the upcoming season.

That left Kodai Senga and José Quintana as the two leading incumbents at the start of the offseason, with pitchers like Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi also on hand as options. The Mets have signed since Luis Severino to a one-year deal and acquired Adrian Houser in a trade with the Brewers. Those two likely push Megill and Lucchesi into a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, but Sherman relays that the club would like to add one more arm and push those two further into depth roles. Both pitchers are still optionable and don’t need to be on the active roster if the pitching staff if strengthened.

New president of baseball operations David Stearns is plenty familiar with Woodruff from his time in Milwaukee. He would be more of a long-term play though, unlikely to help the 2024 club too much. He underwent shoulder surgery in October and is slated to miss most of the upcoming campaign, which led the Brewers to non-tender him. But with the Mets looking at 2024 as a sort of transition year with an eye towards more aggressive contention in 2025, perhaps the two sides can line up on some kind of two-year deal. That would allow Woodruff to bank some money while rehabbing and then give the Mets the upside of bolstering their club next year.

If Woodruff can overcome his shoulder woes and return to his previous form, he would upgrade any rotation in the league. He has a career earned run average of 3.10 in 680 1/3 innings dating back to his 2017 debut. He has struck out 28.9% of batters faced in that time while walking just 6.5% of them and keeping 42.8% of balls in play on the ground. Health has been a bit of an ongoing issue, as he’s never been able to throw 180 innings in a big league season, but the results on a rate basis have clearly been excellent.

As for Cease, his ERA flared up to 4.58 in 2023 but his peripherals were still above average, including a 27.3% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strike rate. Over the past three years, he has made 97 starts with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. He tallied 12.6 wins above replacement over those three seasons, according to FanGraphs, which puts him eighth on the pitching leaderboard for that stretch.

He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.8MM this year and will be due one more raise before becoming a free agent after 2025. That means he will be paid way less than a pitcher of similar skill who is looking for a free agent deal, but it also means the White Sox are setting a very high asking price. It was reported last month that they asked the Reds for four of that club’s top prospects in exchange for Cease. The Reds seem to have given up on the pursuit, signing Frankie Montas instead.

For the Mets, giving up a significant prospect package like that would be a surprise. They have been open about their desire to build a strong prospect pipeline in order to ensure continuous contention and have been even more focused on the long-term plan this offseason. Though Sherman says the Mets continue to check in with the White Sox, the Mets aren’t considered as likely to land him as a team flush with prospects like the Orioles.

Ryu, 37 in March, would line up with the club’s offseason M.O., as they have given out one-year deals to Severino, Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin. It appears to be a strategy of spreading money around and improving depth while not committing any future money. It’s also possible that any player in this batch who plays well will end up on the trading block if the Mets are out of contention a few months from now.

Given Ryu’s age and recent health history, he is likely looking at a one-year deal as well. He missed most of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though he did return last year and toss 52 innings for the Blue Jays with a 3.46 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 6.3% rate and kept 45.6% of balls in play on the ground. He may have been a bit lucky to keep as many runs from scoring as he did, given his .272 batting average on balls in play and 77.6% strand rate. ERA estimators such as his 4.91 FIP and 4.69 SIERA weren’t as enthused with his performance. On the other hand, perhaps he could shake off some more rust and have better results this year now that he’s further removed from his surgery. As recently as 2020, he finished in the top three in American League Cy Young voting.

Manaea, 32 in February, is coming off a couple of shaky years in terms of results. He has been a solid mid-rotation option in his career but his ERA jumped to 4.96 in 2022 and was at 4.44 last year. Digging into his most recent campaign provides more reason for optimism, something recently explored here at MLBTR. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper to his arsenal in late May and had significantly better results, 6.61 ERA before and 3.60 ERA after adding that pitch. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Manaea could land a two-year, $22MM deal this winter.

As for Imanaga, he stands out from the other names on this list as he seems slated for a far more lengthy commitment, though the Mets have been connected to him in the past. MLBTR predicted he could land a five-year, $85MM contract, but with recent reporting suggesting he has enough interest to push past $100MM. Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that today, however, suggesting there are concerns around a 2020 shoulder surgery and also how his tendency to work up in the zone might make him homer prone in the majors.

If the market drops, perhaps the Mets will sense an opportunity to bolster their long-term rotation outlook, in contrast to their other moves this winter. Quintana, Severino and Houser are all set to be free agents after 2024, so they have very little rotation certainty going forward. The 30-year-old Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA in his NPB career and just posted a 2.80 mark in 2023. In addition to the Mets, he’s had interest from clubs like the Red Sox, Giants, Yankees and Cubs, though Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported today that the Cubs aren’t seen as a likely landing spot for the lefty. Imanaga’s posting period end on January 11, giving him less than a week to get a deal done.

Mets Indicating Willingness To Trade Omar Narvaez

By Anthony Franco | January 4, 2024 at 7:28pm CDT

The Mets are telling teams they’re open to dealing Omar Narváez, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. It’s unclear whether any clubs are interested in the left-handed hitting catcher, although the Mets would very likely have to pay down some portion of his contract to facilitate a move.

It’s the second straight offseason in which New York is looking to move a veteran catcher fairly early into a free agent deal. The Mets surprisingly guaranteed Narváez $15MM over two seasons. He made $8MM last year and had a $7MM player option for 2024. The Narváez pickup led the Mets to cut bait on James McCann two seasons into a four-year, $40MM pact. New York paid all but $5MM of the $24MM remaining on McCann’s deal to offload him to the Orioles.

The Narváez signing wasn’t as costly as the McCann acquisition. It started similarly poorly, however. Narváez suffered a significant strain of his left calf within the season’s first two weeks. He was sidelined into June. By the time he returned, rookie Francisco Álvarez had taken over as the starter. Narváez was pushed into a depth role and didn’t perform well.

In 49 games, Narváez hit .211/.283/.297 with a pair of home runs. That’s on the heels of a similarly underwhelming .206/.292/.305 line in 296 plate appearances for the Brewers in 2022. Narváez had a solid ’21 campaign (.266/.342/.402 over 445 trips to the plate) but has been a well below-average hitter in three of the past four seasons. It’s a notable step back from 2017-19, when Narváez was somewhat quietly one of the better offensive catchers in MLB.

To his credit, the eight-year veteran has generally improved behind the plate as his numbers at the dish have regressed. Statcast graded Narváez as an above-average pitch framer each season from 2020-22. That reflected a seemingly concerted effort to improve his receiving after being traded from the Mariners to Milwaukee going into the 2020 season. Narváez has never had a great throwing arm, though, which opponents exploited with more favorable baserunning rules last year. He threw out only six of 52 stolen base attempts, an 11.5% success rate that was well off the 19.8% league average.

Between the calf injury and a replacement-level performance, Narváez had an easy decision to exercise his player option. While his path to playing time in Queens is limited, he wouldn’t have found a $7MM contract if he returned to free agency. It’s hard to envision another team taking the full salary in trade either, but the Mets haven’t had many qualms about paying down contracts. They’ve done so with back-of-the-roster players like McCann and Eduardo Escobar and in blockbuster transactions involving Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

President of baseball operations David Stearns wasn’t involved in the decision to sign Narváez, although he’s familiar with the player from their time in Milwaukee. One of Stearns’ first moves with the Mets was to claim Tyler Heineman off waivers from the Blue Jays. He joins Álvarez and Narváez as the three catchers on the 40-man roster.

Tomás Nido, who has played parts of seven MLB seasons as a Met, remains in the organization after being outrighted in June (a move that coincided with Narváez’s return from the calf strain). Nido hit .281/.336/.393 in 39 games at Triple-A Syracuse after clearing waivers. He’ll make $2.1MM next season as part of a two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration last offseason.

NL Notes: Miley, Reds, Mets, Marte, Brewers, Junk

By Mark Polishuk | January 1, 2024 at 5:18pm CDT

The Reds’ search for starting pitching help has resulted in deals with Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez, while the team has been linked to several other pitchers who either remain available (in trades or in free agency) or have since landed elsewhere. MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports that one of those now-signed pitching targets included Wade Miley, as Cincinnati had some talks with the veteran left-hander before Miley re-signed with the Brewers.

There’s plenty of familiarity between the two sides, as Miley pitched for the Reds in 2020-21 and posted a 3.55 ERA over 177 1/3 innings. The Reds held a $10MM club option on his services for 2022, yet as part of a payroll cutback, Cincinnati put Miley on waivers (where he was quickly claimed by the Cubs) in order to part ways without even paying the $1MM buyout on that option. Miley has since posted a 3.15 ERA in 157 1/3 innings with Chicago and Milwaukee since the start of the 2022 campaign, though injuries again limited his availability.

Miley received $8.5MM in guaranteed money in his one-year deal with the Brewers, and the Reds went beyond that price range in their one-year, $16MM deal with Montas. With $106.2MM spent so far this winter, Cincinnati has been one of the offseason’s busier teams in free agency, and it seems possible the Reds might not be done with their efforts to bolster the pitching staff.

Mets, Yankees Among Teams With Interest In Gio Urshela

By Nick Deeds | December 31, 2023 at 8:28pm CDT

The Mets and Yankees are among the teams interested in third baseman Gio Urshela, according to Will Sammon of The Athletic.

Urshela, of course, is no stranger to New York after enjoying a breakout season with the Yankees back in 2019 and spending three seasons in the Bronx. Since that breakout season, Urshela has established himself as an above-average regular in the infield with a .291/.335/.452 slash line good for a 115 wRC+ over the past five seasons with the Yankees, Twins, and Angels. Urshela has paired that above average offensive production with roughly average defense around the infield dirt, where he’s played primarily third base along with some shortstop and brief cameos at both first and second base.

The infielder’s market has been relatively quiet for most of the offseason to this point. The only potential connection to get any buzz to this point in the winter for Urshela was a recent report of interest from the Blue Jays, though even that comes with the caveat that Toronto’s interest may wane in the wake of the Isiah Kiner-Falefa signing. The relatively quiet market for Urshela’s services could connect back to the infielder’s injury-marred 2023 campaign. While he hit a decent .299/.329/.374 during his time in Anaheim, it’s worth noting the fact that he appeared in just 62 games with the club after his season came to an abrupt end in early June thanks to a pelvic fracture. Given Urshela’s downturn in power production as an Angel and the significant injury the 32-year-old is recovering from, it would be understandable if clubs viewed his free agency with some trepidation.

Even in spite of the question marks surrounding Urshela and his injury-plagued 2023 campaign, he still stands as one of the better infield options on the market this offseason. The unusually thin positional market has been hit particularly hard with regards to available infielders, with Urshela standing as one of the best players available behind third baseman Matt Chapman. The likes of Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson, Eduardo Escobar and Adam Frazier make up the next tier of players available, all of whom Urshela rates relatively favorably in comparison to.

Given that reality, it’s no surprise that the Mets would have at least some level of interest in Urshela’s services. Switch-hitting youngster Ronny Mauricio appeared to be in line for a shot to be the club’s regular third baseman in 2024, but the 22-year-old suffered an ACL tear while playing winter ball earlier this month, leaving the club with only Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Joey Wendle as options for regular starts at the hot corner entering next year. Both Baty and Vientos have struggled offensively in the majors and have questions about their defensive ability at third, while Wendle had previously been ticketed for a utility role in Queens next year. The addition of Urshela to the club’s mix would take pressure off of Baty and Vientos while given the Mets a right-handed complement to Wendle who is similarly versatile on defense.

Urshela’s fit with the Yankees is far less clear. With Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe all entrenched at first base, second base, and shortstop respectively, that leaves third base as the only uncertain infield position in the Bronx as things stand. While that’s Urshela’s native position, the club nonetheless has veteran DJ LeMahieu penciled in as the everyday third baseman as well as youngsters like Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera who could step into the club’s infield mix in the event of an injury. Even on the heels of a relative down season by LeMahieu’s standards, the addition of Urshela is not a clear upgrade over the 35-year-old veteran and would likely only serve to clog up the club’s infield mix further. Of course, it’s possible that a trade of a player such as Torres could free up space on the dirt and make a reunion between the Yankees and Urshela more plausible.

Sammon’s report also suggests that the two New York clubs are not the only ones with interest in Urshela’s services, though it does not name any other specific clubs. It’s at least possible Toronto still has interest in adding Urshela even after signing Kiner-Falefa, but other speculative fits for the infielder’s services include the Cubs, Mariners, and Brewers. Chicago currently figures to utilize some combination of Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Christopher Morel at third base, while the Brewers and Mariners appear likely to turn to Andruw Monasterio and Luis Urias respectively at the hot corner.

Mets, Angels Interested In J.D. Martinez

By Darragh McDonald | December 29, 2023 at 9:47am CDT

The Mets and Angels are “eyeing” J.D. Martinez, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman had previously floated both clubs as speculative fits for Martinez but this report seems to point to something with a bit more backing.

Martinez, now 36, was also a free agent last winter. He eventually signed with the Dodgers for one year and $10MM, though he later suggested he could have found more money if he held out a bit longer. “This was an offer that came up seeing if it was something I was interested in doing,” Martinez said in March to Rob Bradford of WEEI. “Obviously, it was a little bit of a pay cut, but if I held up maybe I could have gotten more. We were confident about that. But at the same time I wanted a team that was going to be in October, be in the swing of things all year and give me a chance to win.”

It also allowed him to reunite with Robert Van Scoyoc, the Dodgers hitting coach who previously made Martinez into a premium major league hitter. Joining the Dodgers and reuniting with Van Scoyoc went very well, as Martinez ended up having a strong season. He hit 33 home runs and slashed .271/.321/.572 for a wRC+ of 135, with both that home run tally and the wRC+ figure his personal best since 2019.

Despite all of that, a reunion with the Dodgers is not in the cards. The club didn’t issue him a qualifying offer because they wanted to keep their designated hitter slot open for a pursuit of Shohei Ohtani. Now that they have successfully added Ohtani to the roster, there’s no real way to fit Martinez into their plans. He’s capable of playing the outfield on occasion but logged just 12 innings there this year and none at all in 2022.

Martinez will thus be looking for a club that can accommodate a full-time DH. The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks are two clubs that are open to such an addition and both have been connected to Martinez in rumors, but the Angels and Mets are also viable landing spots.

For the Halos, they have been using their DH slot on Ohtani in recent years. Now that he’s heading to the Dodgers, that spot is open for someone new. They will be facing the challenge of trying to build a competitive team without Ohtani, something they weren’t able to do with him. Martinez is one of the few available free agents that can come close to making up for Ohtani’s lost offensive production.

Though there are reasons why he may not be a perfect fit. Having Ohtani locked into the DH spot in recent years has prevented the club from using that role to give other players a breather. They have several players on the roster with injury concerns, such as Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout and Taylor Ward, who could perhaps benefit from more semi rest days. The Angels would have to weigh the value of adding Martinez to the lineup against that loss of flexibility. On top of that, the current squad skews right-handed. Luis Rengifo is a switch-hitter and then Mickey Moniak and Nolan Schanuel are lefties, but the other projected regulars are all righties.

If they did decide to make a play for him, they should have plenty of room in the budget. Their competitive balance tax figure is currently at $168MM for next year, per Roster Resource. That puts them almost $70MM below the lowest tax threshold of $237MM. MLBTR predicted Martinez for a contract of $40MM over two years, an average annual value of $20MM. The Angels also have some work to do in addressing their pitching staff but there’s space for a Martinez deal if they want to do it.

For the Mets, their regular DH this year was Daniel Vogelbach, though he was non-tendered after a somewhat middling campaign. That leaves their best internal option for the DH spot as DJ Stewart, who shouldn’t stand in the way of someone like Martinez. He finished 2023 on a heater, hitting 11 home runs in 58 games after having his contract selected in July. However, he has been inconsistent in his career, having hit .213/.327/.400 prior to 2023 for a wRC+ of 99. He can play the outfield but is considered a poor defender. He had to settle for a minor league deal last winter, though his hot finish to 2023 led the Mets to tender him a $1.38MM contract for 2024. If Martinez were to be brought aboard, Stewart could be nudged into a part-time role as a platoon guy/pinch-hitter.

Since Martinez will be limited to a short-term deal on account of his age, that could fit with the Mets and their current approach. They are treating 2024 as a sort of transition year, with the aim of having a greater chance at contending in 2025 and beyond. That doesn’t mean they are overly concerned about the budget, however. Their CBT figure is currently pegged at $298MM by Roster Resource, already above the fourth tax line of $297MM. They took on money in the Adrian Houser/Tyrone Taylor deal and have given modest guarantees on one-year deals to Luis Severino, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin.

As a third-time payor that is over the final CBT tier, any additional spending from the Mets would come with a massive 110% tax. But the tax bill for the year isn’t calculated until the end of the season. If they end up out of contention again, they may end up selling off pieces prior to the 2024 deadline. Pete Alonso, José Quintana and Severino are impending free agents making eight figures next year, and Martinez could potentially be on that list as well.

The Mets have also shown a willingness to eat money in deadline deals in order to improve the prospect return, doing so in both the Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander trades a few months back. If the club decides Martinez is a good fit for the roster and could perhaps be a nice trade chip by the summer, they would likely fork over the money to get him signed.

Whether that’s something Martinez would be interested in is a different matter. As quoted up top, he chose the Dodgers in part for the chance to be playing in October. Both the Mets and Angels are less clear-cut contenders right now than the Dodgers were a year ago. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are coming off a World Series appearance while the Jays have made the postseason in three of the past four seasons, giving those clubs stronger cases to pitch to Martinez in terms of competitive chances. Though it’s unknown what kind of financial arrangements each club is willing to consider, which will undoubtedly be a factor in his decision making as well.

Dodgers Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto To 12-Year Deal

By Anthony Franco | December 27, 2023 at 1:52pm CDT

For the second time this month, the Dodgers have made a record-setting free agent strike. Los Angeles announced the signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year contract. The NPB star lands a reported $325MM guarantee, an all-time high for a pitcher. The deal comes with a near-$51MM posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball, bringing the overall commitment north of $375MM. Yamamoto is represented by Wasserman.

“I’d like to thank everyone in the Orix organization, the Dodger organization and all the people close to me who have given me so much support throughout this free-agent process,” Yamamoto said in a statement released by the team. “I am truly excited to wear Dodger Blue and can’t wait to play in front of a packed Dodger Stadium.”

Yamamoto receives a massive $50MM signing bonus and a pair of opt-out opportunities. Those are conditional on the status of his elbow but would allow him to retest free agency after the 2029 and ’31 seasons if he stays healthy. If he doesn’t incur a serious elbow injury, he’d be weighing whether to opt out of the last six years and $170MM once the 2029-30 offseason arrives. The deal does not contain any deferred money.

The right-hander has been the best pitcher in Japan for the past few seasons. He spent parts of seven years with the Buffaloes. By his age-20 campaign, he’d emerged as one of the top pitchers at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Yamamoto turned in a 1.95 ERA that season, kicking off a run of five straight years allowing no more than 2.20 earned runs per nine.

That includes sub-2.00 ERA showings over his final trio of seasons. Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award as Japan’s best pitcher in all three years. He worked to a 1.39 ERA over 193 2/3 innings in 2021, followed by a 1.68 mark in 193 frames the next season. Yamamoto somehow turned in an even better year in his final season, pitching to a microscopic 1.21 ERA through 168 frames.

Among NPB pitchers to reach 100 innings, Yamamoto’s ERA was more than half a run lower than anyone else’s. (Shoki Murakami finished second with a 1.75 mark in 144 1/3 frames). Only Shota Imanaga, who is also available to MLB teams this offseason via the posting system, topped Yamamoto’s 169 strikeouts. He punched out 26.6% of opposing hitters against a tidy 4.4% walk rate.

It’s about as dominant a body of work as a pitcher can build before he faces any MLB hitters. The elite production is supported by both scouting and quantitive evaluations of Yamamoto’s arsenal. Evaluators are nearly unanimous in projecting him as a high-octane major league starter. Conservative estimates on his upside point to a future as a high-end #2 starter, while other scouts have pegged him as a potential ace.

Eno Sarris of the Athletic recently broke down Yamamoto’s repertoire. He suggested Yamamoto brandishes three plus or better offerings highlighted by a split-finger that should be among the best in the majors. The righty worked in the mid-upper 90s with his fastball in shorter stints during the World Baseball Classic. He also sports a promising curveball and a cutter as his third and fourth offerings, while evaluators praise his athleticism and command.

Yamamoto would have been in high demand even if he were in his late 20s or early 30s, the standard age for a free agent pitcher. That he debuted in NPB as an 18-year-old and was made available via the posting system only adds to the appeal. Yamamoto turned 25 in August, making him the first marquee free agent pitcher that age since Masahiro Tanaka signed during the 2013-14 offseason. He’ll be paid through his age-36 season.

To the extent there are concerns about Yamamoto, they’re limited to his lack of MLB experience and a smaller 5’10” frame. That hasn’t worried many evaluators, though, and they’re clearly not issues for the Dodgers.

Entering the offseason, it was widely believed Yamamoto would land the largest contract ever for a player coming over from NPB. It’d have been a far bolder prediction to peg him for the largest deal of any pitcher in major league history. That’s what he’ll receive, though, setting the mark in both contract length and guarantee. He’s the first pitcher in recent memory to reach even the 10-year mark. The guarantee edges past the $324MM which Gerrit Cole landed with the Yankees during the 2019-20 offseason. Yamamoto’s deal stretches three more seasons than Cole’s does, but his camp is surely pleased with the guarantee record even if it required slightly lowering the annual salary.

The deal comes with a $27.08MM average annual value. Regardless of the precise salary distribution, that’s the relevant factor for the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax picture. That pushes L.A. well into the third tier of luxury tax penalization. Roster Resource calculates the club’s CBT number in the $282MM range.

The Dodgers are set to pay the tax for a third consecutive season. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for spending between $237MM and $257MM, 62% for their next $20MM, and a 95% clip for spending between $277MM and $297MM. (They’ll be taxed at a 110% rate for any dollars above $297MM.) By pushing the Dodgers from around $255MM to $282MM from a tax perspective, the contract adds roughly $18.2MM in tax payments. It also means that future acquisitions will come with an elevated tax height.

On top of the money to Yamamoto and the tax payments, the Dodgers are on the hook for a huge sum to Orix. Under the terms of the NPB/MLB posting system, a posting fee is calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending. That comes out to $50.625MM which the Dodgers owe to the Buffaloes.

It’s a staggering outlay, one that pushes near the $400MM mark in aggregate. It’s the kind of massive strike the Dodgers envisioned in the wake of the Shohei Ohtani signing. The defending AL MVP deferred $680MM of his $700MM deal until 2034-43. That left plenty of money at the front office’s disposal to fix the starting rotation. With Ohtani unable to pitch until 2025, he signed with a team that only had Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller as locks for the Opening Day rotation.

Within a couple weeks, the Dodgers have constructed a star-studded pitching staff to complement their strong bullpen and loaded lineup. Los Angeles acquired and promptly extended Tyler Glasnow. Adding Yamamoto to the group gives them a potentially elite front four. There’s still some risk. Glasnow and Buehler have concerning injury histories, while neither Yamamoto nor Miller has pitched a full season in MLB. Yet it’s also not difficult to see the path to excellent results regardless of whomever takes the final spot. Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove project as the top internal options, but it’d be foolish to rule out the Dodgers adding a veteran arm to continue their all-in push.

Aggressive as the signing is for L.A., they weren’t meaningfully above their top competitors in the bidding. Martino reports that the Yankees put forth a 10-year, $300MM offer, while the Mets put the same $325MM figure on the table. According to Martino, Yamamoto’s camp had sought opt-out provisions after the fifth and eighth seasons in those discussions. The Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Phillies were also in the running down to the final week.

In the end, it seems Yamamoto preferred the Dodgers to the other clubs that were seriously involved. The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports that the Mets first presented the $325MM offer, which the Dodgers agreed to match. He’ll join Ohtani, Glasnow, Buehler, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith on a team that’s likely to enter the 2024 campaign as the most popular World Series pick.

The rest of the clubs will look elsewhere. The Mets seem likely to have a fairly quiet offseason, as they reportedly viewed Yamamoto as a unique free agent based on his youth and talent. They’re not expected to pivot to the next tiers of free agency. The Yankees, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox could all still be in play for top-of-the-market talent, either on the rotation front or at other positions. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery now stand atop the starting pitching class, while Cody Bellinger is arguably the best remaining overall free agent. The market could also now accelerate for Imanaga, the #2 NPB pitcher who has until mid-January to sign with an MLB team.

Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported that Yamamoto would sign with the Dodgers for more than $300MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the 12-year, $325MM term. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was first with the $50MM signing bonus, while Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the absence of deferrals. Passan reported the two opt-out possibilities.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Sign Chad Smith To Minor League Contract

By Anthony Franco | December 26, 2023 at 4:54pm CDT

The Mets signed reliever Chad Smith to a minor league contract over the weekend, according to the Associated Press. He’ll be in MLB camp as a non-roster Spring Training invitee.

Smith, a 28-year-old righty, has made brief appearances at the MLB level in each of the past two seasons. The Ole Miss product debuted with the Rockies in 2022, allowing 15 runs across 18 innings. Colorado traded him to the A’s a little more than a year ago. Smith pitched 10 times for Oakland, tossing 13 2/3 frames of 10-run ball. Between the two clubs, he owns a 7.11 ERA at the highest level.

While those aren’t especially impressive results, Smith has kept the ball on the ground at a huge 55.2% clip in his limited MLB time. He has posted high grounder marks throughout his professional career. Smith has also run decent strikeout numbers in the minors, including a 26.6% rate over three years in Triple-A.

That combination of whiffs and grounders has thus far been undercut by subpar control. Smith has walked more than 15% of batters faced in his big league time while handing out free passes at a 13.4% clip in Triple-A. His already alarming walk percentage spiked to 17.3% for the A’s top affiliate a season ago. That contributed to a 7.53 ERA over 35 appearances, leading Oakland to outright him from their 40-man roster at the beginning of the offseason.

The Mets have added a number of depth players in David Stearns’ first winter leading baseball operations. New York has signed Trayce Thompson, Rylan Bannon, Taylor Kohlwey and José Iglesias to non-roster deals, while Smith joins Cole Sulser, Kyle Crick, Cam Robinson and Andre Scrubb as minor league additions to the relief corps. The Mets have also added Yohan Ramirez, Michael Tonkin, Jorge López and Austin Adams to the 40-man roster via modest acquisitions.

Eight Teams Combine For Record $209.8MM In Luxury Tax Bills

By Mark Polishuk | December 23, 2023 at 1:34pm CDT

Major League Baseball has finalized the luxury tax calculations for the 2023 season, and the eight teams over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will combine for a total bill of $209.8MM, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports. Both the total number of tax-paying teams and the total sum are new records, surpassing the previous highs of six teams (in 2016 and 2022) and $78.5MM (in 2022).

Here is what each of the eight teams owes for surpassing at least the $233MM base CBT threshold….

Mets: $100,781,932
Padres: $39.7MM
Yankees: $32.4MM
Dodgers: $19.4MM
Phillies: $6.98MM
Blue Jays: $5.5MM
Braves: $3.2MM
Rangers: $1.8MM

As a reminder of how the luxury tax operates, the CBT figures are determined by the average annual value of salaries for players on the 40-man roster. A player earning $20MM over two seasons, for example, has a CBT number of $10MM, even if the player might earn $8MM in the first year of the contract and $12MM in the second year. Deferred money in a contract can reduce a luxury tax number to some extent — most famously, Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with the Dodgers contains $680MM in deferred money, so his CBT hit will be roughly $46MM per season instead of $70MM.

A team is considered a “first-time payor” if they haven’t spent above the CBT threshold in the previous season. A first-time payor would owe a 20% surcharge on any dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, 32% of anything between $253MM and $273MM, 62.5% on anything between $273MM and $293MM, and then 80% of overages for anything beyond $293MM. These percentages rise if a team is a tax payor for two consecutive seasons, and then even further if a team exceeds the CBT line in three or more consecutive seasons. This year’s CBT class featured three first-time payors (Texas, Atlanta, Toronto), three two-time payors (Philadelphia, both New York teams) and two three-time payors (San Diego, Los Angeles).

The $293MM threshold was instituted in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement as a fourth penalty tier, and it is unofficially known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” in a reference to the Mets owner’s penchant for big spending. Even though New York has only topped the CBT whatsoever in 2022 and 2023, it isn’t surprising that Cohen’s team set new standards for tax payouts. The Mets’ tax payroll of $374.7MM and approximate $100.78MM tax bill far exceeded the 2015 Dodgers’ previous records of $291.1MM and $43.6MM, respectively.

This bill would’ve been even higher if the Mets hadn’t unexpectedly struggled, and unloaded some expensive contracts at the trade deadline in order to save some money and reload with an eye towards probably 2025 as a more clear-cut return to contention. Blum also notes that the Mets received a $2,126,471 tax credit related to a CBA provision, which slightly reduced their bill further.

As always, the actual financial cost of exceeding the tax is perhaps the least-important part of the penalties, especially for teams who barely across the first threshold. Teams who exceed the CBT line would face further punishment in regards to free agents who reject qualifying offers, whether that translates to additional compensation required to sign a QO-rejecting player, or lesser compensation received if a team’s own qualified free agent signs elsewhere. For instance, signing Ohtani cost the Dodgers not just $700MM, but also $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft. For a team like the Padres, should Blake Snell or Josh Hader sign elsewhere, San Diego’s compensatory draft selection wouldn’t come until after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.

Spending on talent is more often than not a recipe for success on the field, though obviously hardly a guarantee. The Mets had a losing record, and the Padres and Yankees each squeaked over the .500 mark with 82-80 records. The other five tax payors reached the playoffs, though the Phillies and the World Series champion Rangers were the only members of that group of five to win at least one postseason series.

The $209.8MM in tax revenues will be split up in three ways by the league. The first $3.5MM is devoted to funding player benefits, $103.15MM will go towards funding individual player retirement accounts, and the other $103.15MM will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed amongst revenue-sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years.

Angels, Giants Among Teams Pursuing Blake Snell

By Steve Adams | December 22, 2023 at 11:00pm CDT

The Angels have lost Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers and never appeared to be a finalist for NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but they’re pursuing the biggest fish remaining on the free agent market, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, who reports that the Halos have made reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell “their priority” now that Ohtani has officially departed. The Giants, too, are interested in Snell, per Slusser.

Signing Snell would be a departure from the norm for either club. The Angels’ three-year commitment to Tyler Anderson last offseason was the organization’s first multi-year deal for a free agent starting pitcher since signing Joe Blanton to a two-year contract a decade prior. Owner Arte Moreno has been comfortable with long-term deals for position players — oftentimes mega-deals that haven’t worked out favorably (Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon, Josh Hamilton) — but has generally been wary of similar commitments to pitchers. The Angels did pursue Gerrit Cole when he was a free agent, but they of course lost out to the Yankees’ then-record bid of $324MM. (Yamamoto topped that mark by $1MM when he agreed to terms with the Dodgers.)

Similarly, the Giants have eschewed long-term deals for starting pitchers in five years under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. San Francisco hasn’t gone beyond three years on any starting pitcher under the current regime — arguably a shrewd philosophy but also the reason that Kevin Gausman is starring for the Blue Jays on what now looks to be a wildly affordable five-year, $110MM contract. Zaidi’s club has gone to three years to sign Anthony DeSclafani and issued two-year deals for veterans Alex Wood, Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, but longer-term pacts haven’t been in this front office group’s playbook.

Then again, the Giants also haven’t been consistently successful under this front office regime. Their 107-win season in 2021 stands as a clear highlight, but the Giants have fallen well shy of the lofty expectations set by that outlier season. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggested earlier this week in his latest Giants mailbag that ownership could be providing “a little more direction from above” than in prior offseasons — particularly when it comes to this sort of long-term pursuit (one that, as Baggarly rightly notes, is largely possible by virtue of the front office’s prior aversion to taking on this sort of long-term risk). To be clear, Baggarly wasn’t addressing Snell in particular but rather the general philosophical shift associated with pursuing larger-scale additions from the free-agent market.

From a payroll vantage point, both the Halos and Giants can handle a weighty commitment to Snell, who’s reportedly been seeking a commitment of $200MM or more. San Francisco currently projects for a $158MM payroll, per Roster Resource, to say nothing of the fact that the Giants are about $45MM shy of the $237MM luxury-tax threshold. (Luxury tax is calculated by the sum of the average annual value on the payroll and can thus differ from the bottom-line dollars paid out in a given year; contracts are often backloaded or frontloaded for varying purposes.) The only two players signed beyond the 2025 season are ace Logan Webb (five years, $90MM from 2024-28) and newly signed center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, who inked a six-year, $113MM pact.

As for the Angels, they’re stuck paying the aforementioned Rendon $38MM for each of the next three seasons on his backloaded deal. There’s little no hope of trading that cumbersome contract away, so the team can only hope for a return to his Nationals form — unlikely as it may be as he enters his age-34 season. Anderson is signed through 2025 at $13MM per season, and the Angels still owe former MVP Mike Trout $34.45MM annually through the 2030 season.

Even with the huge commitments to Trout and Rendon, the Angels project for a $152MM payroll in 2024 and sit at just $167MM in terms of luxury-tax obligations. That leaves ample room to sign Snell, even if doing so would require shattering the franchise-record for a starting pitcher contract (Jered Weaver’s five-year, $85MM deal).

It stands to reason that with both Ohtani and Yamamoto now off the board, the market for Snell will continue to crystalize in the coming weeks. Several runners-up for Yamamoto, in particular, could pivot to consider Snell — although various reports out of New York have indicated that the Mets aren’t expected to be among them. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote last weekend that the Mets weren’t planning to pursue other top-tier free agents if they fell short in their bid for Yamamoto, whom they considered to be uniquely aligned with their long-term plan given his youth. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo echoed that sentiment today, reporting that the Mets shouldn’t be expected to pursue Snell or fellow free agent Jordan Montgomery.

Latest On Yankees’, Mets’ Failed Pursuits Of Yoshinobu Yamamoto

By Nick Deeds | December 22, 2023 at 8:30pm CDT

The Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes ended late last night when the 25-year-old right-hander agreed to a 12-year deal with the Dodgers worth $325MM. The massive figure is a record for free agent pitchers (aside from two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with LA earlier this month) as Yamamoto slightly surpassed Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM guarantee with the Yankees.

Among the most aggressive suitors for Yamamoto’s services aside from the Dodgers were the two New York teams. Both the Yankees and Mets met with Yamamoto multiple times and reportedly made offers that appeared to match or even exceed LA’s in terms of aggressiveness. Previous reporting indicated that the Mets offered Yamamoto a matching $325MM guarantee while the Yankees offered $300MM over just ten years, boosting the deal’s average annual value to $30MM. In the aftermath of Yamamoto’s decision to head to Los Angeles, more details regarding both clubs’ ultimately fruitless pursuits of the right-hander have come to light.

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Yankees’ offer to Yamamoto exceeded that of the Dodgers’ in a few key areas despite offering $25MM less in terms of total guarantee. In addition to the aforementioned higher AAV, Rosenthal indicates the Yankees were willing to offer Yamamoto opt-out opportunities after the 2028 and 2032 seasons, both one year earlier than the opt-out opportunities he received in his contract out west. The differences in those offers are more meaningful than they may immediately appear. Had Yamamoto signed in the Bronx, he would have had the opportunity to hit free agency for a second time before his 30th birthday, while his deal with the Dodgers will offer him his first chance to opt-out after his age-30 season. Generally, players younger than 30 are widely considered to be far more attractive candidates for long-term deals than those older.

In addition to the potentially more lucrative opt-out situation, the Yankees’ offer to Yamamoto was not back-loaded, as his deal with the Dodgers reportedly is. That the contract Yamamoto ultimately agreed to is back-loaded is no small factor; not only does that mean that the deal’s present day value is diminished somewhat, it also means Yamamoto would be leaving a larger portion of his guaranteed money on the table by opting out of his contract with the Dodgers. No such concern would exist with the Yankees’ offer.

For the Mets’ part, Mike Puma of the New York Post indicates that the club’s 12-year, $325MM offer to Yamamoto was “among the first received” by the right-hander, and that the club was not offered the chance to improve upon that offer. Puma goes on to note, however, that the club may not have significantly raised their bid above that $325MM figure due to the roughly $50MM posting fee the club would have owed to Yamamoto’s NPB team, the Orix Buffaloes, had a deal come together.

The Mets have long been expected to largely avoid top-of-the-market bidding wars for starting pitchers this offseason if they were to miss on Yamamoto, and club owner Steve Cohen seemingly confirmed that stance in conversation with reporters today. As relayed by Puma, Cohen discussed a more cautious approach to free agency this offseason than in previous seasons under his ownership.

“We’re going to be thoughtful and not impulsive and thinking about sustainability over the intermediate long-term, but not focused on winning the headlines over the next week,” Cohen said. “I think there’s a couple of ways to build a team… We’ll build it. It will happen. Slowly and surely you will see changes and improvements.”

Such a measure approach to the 2023-24 offseason has seemed to be a possibility in Queens ever since veteran right-hander Max Scherzer indicated last summer that the club viewed 2024 as “a kind of transitory year” with 2025 and 2026 as the club’s true focus in terms of returning to contention. Since then, the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto has largely taken center stage as the club has made smaller moves on the periphery, adding Luis Severino and Joey Wendle in free agency while picking up Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor in trade.

One factor that may have helped the Dodgers in their pursuit of Yamamoto, as discussed by Rosenthal, is the $50MM signing bonus he’ll receive as part of the contract. Rosenthal notes that Yamamoto’s bonus, paid entirely in 2024, would not be subject to California state taxes so long as he is not a resident of the state. That structure reportedly could save the right-hander as much as $7.2MM. Perhaps even more valuable than that savings would be the Dodgers’ unique position to accommodate his transition to the majors. NPB teams typically use six-man rotations with starters expected to pitch just once a week, making the move to MLB a significant jump in workload for overseas arms.

As noted by Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times, the Dodgers are all but guaranteed to plan on a six-man rotation for the 2025 season given the expected return of Ohtani to the mound that season. The lessened workload could help Yamamoto stay healthy throughout his big league career, which DiGiovanna relays is perhaps the primary concern of scouts regarding his future in the majors thanks to his undersized 5’10”, 176lb frame. Of course, there’s no guarantee that such an arrangement will be the plan for the Dodgers in 2024, when Ohtani will be rehabbing UCL surgery. Even so, DiGiovanna notes that the Dodgers’ starters appeared on regular rest in just 42 regular season games last season, leaving the door open for Yamamoto to get extra days of rest built into his schedule even if the club doesn’t go with a proper six-man rotation.

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