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2013 Amateur Draft

Who Will Be Drafted First Overall?

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Carlos Correa of the Astros, Gerrit Cole of the Pirates, Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals, and Tim Beckham of the Rays have the honor of being the last five players drafted first overall.  Outfielder Byron Buxton was drafted after Correa last year by the Twins, yet was regarded as the draft's best player by both Baseball America and ESPN's Keith Law.  BA and Law both had Correa second.  2012 marked the first draft with MLB's firm slot values, and the Astros were allotted $7.2MM to sign their first overall pick and $11.2MM in total.

In what Baseball America's Jim Callis described as "a perfect storm for Houston," Correa was "a legitimate top-of-the-draft talent" who nonetheless would have been expected to last until the sixth or seventh pick, which had slot values of $3MM and $3.25MM, respectively.  Since the slot values are not firm for each pick but rather part of a team's pool for their first ten picks, the Astros were able to sign Correa for $2.4MM under slot (still worthwhile for him), and use the savings to draft and sign Lance McCullers, Jr. and Rio Ruiz to over-slot deals.

This year, Callis believes the top tier of the draft is limited to college pitchers Jonathan Gray and Mark Appel, and college third baseman Kris Bryant.  In BA's mock draft Friday, Callis mentioned the Astros have narrowed their field to those three plus college third baseman Colin Moran and presumably high school outfielder Clint Frazier.  BA and Law both see Gray and Appel as the draft's top two talents.  The Astros probably wouldn't admit it if they take one of the position players instead, but if that happens, they will seemingly be employing last year's strategy again with their bonus pool money.  That leads us to today's poll question:

Draft Notes: Gray, Manaea, Ball, Twins

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Oklahoma pitcher Jonathan Gray's strong performance in the Big 12 conference tournament increased the likelihood that the Astros will pick him No. 1 overall, ESPN.com's Christopher Crawford writes (Insider-only). Crawford also quotes a scout who says that Indiana State's Sean Manaea — thought to be a top pick before the season — is "not a first-round prospect to me," and suggests Manaea may be best served by not signing and returning to school. Manaea was pulled from a recent start with shoulder tightness. Crawford's piece also contains details about Mark Appel and many of this draft class' top hitters. Here are more notes on the draft.

  • Indiana high-schooler Trey Ball tops the list of two-way players available in this year's draft, Baseball America's Jim Callis says. Teams now prefer Ball as a pitcher, and it looks likely he'll be selected in the first 10 picks or so. Another two-way player is Cal State-Fullerton's Michael Lorenzen, who will be drafted as a center fielder, Callis says.
  • If the Twins wish to avoid Scott Boras with the No. 4 overall pick in the upcoming draft, their best bets are high school pitcher Kohl Stewart or high school catcher Reese McGuire, ESPN1500's Darren Wolfson tweets. Stewart is being advised by Derek Braunecker and McGuire by Matt Sosnick, Wolfson says.

How Valuable Are Competitive Balance Draft Picks?

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This year’s draft will be the first to feature competitive balance draft picks. These picks, which go to small-market and low-revenue teams, were awarded in a lottery last year. Some will take place after the first round, others after the second round. Unlike with regular draft picks, it’s possible for teams to trade competitive balance picks, which means that each team surely has decided how much these picks are worth.USATSI_7210839

This is the full draft order. The competitive balance picks are as follows:

34. Royals
35. Marlins (from Pirates)
36. Diamondbacks
37. Orioles
38. Reds
39. Tigers (from Marlins)

69. Padres
70. Rockies
71. A’s
72. Brewers
73. Marlins (from Tigers)

A 2009 study by Baseball Analysts’ Sky Andrecheck suggested that the average value of the No. 30 overall pick was 3.6 WAR — basically, the equivalent of about two decent seasons for a role player. The value of the competititve balance picks from No. 34 to No. 39, then, would be slightly less. Placing a numerical value on these draft picks in the current draft environment is tricky, however, because so much about the draft has changed in the past two years. Unlike in years past, teams are reined in by bonus pool allotments, so they aren’t picking players for the same reasons they used to.

Teams can trade competitive balance picks, and two trades have already occurred, both of them involving the Marlins. The Pirates traded (what turned out to be) their No. 35 pick to Miami, along with outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, for first baseman Gaby Sanchez and minor-league pitcher Kyle Kaminska. The Marlins also traded their own competitive balance pick to the Tigers in the Anibal Sanchez deal, receiving the Tigers’ pick in return.

The Gaby Sanchez deal is a lot simpler, so let’s work from there. Hernandez and Kaminska weren’t key parts of the trade, so the deal boils down to Gaby Sanchez for the No. 35 overall pick. Pirates GM Neal Huntington recently explained the rationale behind the deal in an interview with David Todd on 970 ESPN in Pittsburgh (beginning at around 12:30).

“You see a David Wright, and you recognize, man, there’s a comp pick and there’s the risk, is we may have given up David Wright,” Huntington says. (Obviously, Wright wasn’t a competitive balance pick, but he was the No. 38 overall pick in the draft in 2001.)

“But … you recognize there’s about a 15% chance of getting an everyday big-leaguer in the 30-to-40 pick range,” says Huntington. “We felt like it was worth that 15% chance that we were going to get an everyday big-leaguer.

“You’ve also got a smaller chance to get an impact guy like David Wright, but you’ve got about a 60% miss rate at those picks, and in our minds, it’s going to be even [higher] now that the draft is much more scripted than it’s ever been.”

A look at recent draft history reveals Huntington’s analysis to be essentially correct. Let’s look at the 30-40 pick range from the 2001 through 2005 drafts. (Although Huntington mentioned the “30-to-40 pick range,” the No. 30 pick will typically be a traditional first-round pick, not a competitive-balance pick.)

2001: Noah Lowry (30), Jeff Mathis (33), Bronson Sardinha (34), J.D. Martin (35), John Rheinecker (37), David Wright (38)

2002: Dan Meyer (34), Jeremy Brown (35), Mark Teahen (39)

2003: Mitch Maier (30), Matt Murton (32), Omar Quintanilla (33), Luis Atilano (35), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (36), Adam Jones (37), James Houser (38), Tony Gwynn, Jr. (39), Jay Sborz (40)

2004: Eric Hurley (30), J.P. Howell (31), Zach Jackson (32), Matt Fox (35), Danny Putnam (36), Gio Gonzalez (38), Huston Street (40)

2005: Tyler Greene (30), Ryan Tucker (34), Cesar Ramos (35), Travis Buck (36), Trevor Bell (37)

This distribution of outcomes is fairly telling — in 55 picks, there’s one superstar (Wright), two very good players (Jones and Gonzalez), a good closer (Street), a decent regular (Saltalamacchia) and a smattering of role players. This was a better five-year period for picks 31 through 40 than the five-year periods before or after it, and still the chances of nabbing a meaningful player with one of those picks was, it appears, relatively small. For competitive balance picks after the second round, the chances of grabbing a good player are even smaller. (Well, at least theoretically. From 2001 through 2005, the list of quality players chosen between No. 66 and No. 75 includes Dan Haren, Kurt Suzuki, Jason Vargas, Wade Davis and Chase Headley. That’s not bad.)

Gaby Sanchez, who has produced 0.4 WAR for the Pirates this season, is more valuable than most players from the 31 through 40 range who made the majors, and obviously also more valuable than the ones who didn’t make the majors. He’s also cheap, making $1.75MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Notably, though, the Pirates quickly slotted him into the short end of a platoon role, meaning that they recognized him as a part-time player.

Is it worth it to give up a shot at the next David Wright for a part-time player? That depends on how great the shot is, and the position of the franchise making the trade. The Marlins were selling off their disappointing 2012 team at the time of the Sanchez deal, so it made sense for them to take a shot in the dark at finding the next David Wright. But the Pirates were trying to position themselves as a contender, so Sanchez had more value for them than a shot in the dark did.

Another consideration is the bonus pool allotment for competitive balance picks. Last year’s pool value for the No. 35 pick was $1.4MM; this year, that figure will be slightly higher. So the Marlins will have a little over $1.4MM extra to distribute to all its draft picks, assuming they sign whoever they take at No. 35, while the Pirates will forfeit the ability to spend that money. The Astros, for example, used a large bonus pool to their advantage in the later rounds last year, signing players like Lance McCullers Jr. for well over the bonus recommendation.

In the next few years, teams’ ability to trade competitive balance selections should allow us to begin to see how teams value draft picks. The competitive balance picks are late enough in the draft that they’re fairly low-percentage plays. They’re still valuable, however, so we should see rebuilding small-market and low-revenue teams try to acquire them — either one-for-one (or more or less one-for-one) for role players like Gaby Sanchez, or as part of packages in deals involving more premium talents.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Draft Notes: Gray, Astros, Pirates, Crawford

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"Buzz is growing" that the Astros will take Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray (rather than, among others, Stanford pitcher Mark Appel) with the first overall pick in the upcoming draft, Troy Renck of the Denver Post writes. Gray was recently named the Most Outstanding Player in the Big 12 tournament, says Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle (on Twitter). Here are more notes on the draft.

  • Potential choices for the Pirates with the 9th and 14th picks in the draft include high school pitchers Kohl Stewart and Trey Ball, and college hitter D.J. Peterson, write Jason A. Churchill and Chris Crawford of ESPN.com (Insider-only). Many mock drafts have Stewart coming off the board before the Pirates pick at No. 9, but a high-upside arm like Stewart's would surely be tempting if it fell that far. Churchill and Crawford list their potential fits for other NL Central teams as well, so be sure to check that out.
  • The top of this year's draft is thinner at the middle infield positions than in years past, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo writes. "It's about as weak as it's been in recent memory," says a scouting director. "It seems like we might not have one go off in the top 15 picks, which would be unusual. I think that speaks to the weakness of the class." California high school shortstop J.P. Crawford, Carl Crawford's nephew, is likely to be the middle infielder drafted first.
  • The Wall Street Journal's Tim Marchman, meanwhile, asks whether Major League Baseball even ought to have a draft. Marchman suggests that the draft is "inefficient," (by which he means that the top talents are more difficult to identify than they are in, say, the NBA) and also "unjust" (by which he means that players can't just sign where they want). Marchman proposes simply scrapping the draft and making amateur player acquisition an open market, suggesting that would be the best way to "spread the talent around." It's hard to see how such a system would distribute talent evenly, however — lower-payroll teams and teams in northern markets (most draft-eligible players come from the South and Southwest) would likely struggle to attract notable players.

Cubs Notes: Garza, Sveum, Draft, Guillen

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Matt Garza made his second start since being activated from the disabled list, but it didn't go as well as his five shutout innings in his season debut last Tuesday versus the Pirates. Garza, number eight on MLBTR's 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings, needed 92 pitches (52 for strikes) to cover four innings against the Reds. The right-hander struck out seven but allowed four runs on four hits with four walks (one intentional), one HBP, and a wild pitch. Garza received a no-decision as the Cubs rallied for a 5-4 victory in 10 innings snapping their six-game losing streak. In other North Side news:

  • The present for the Cubs has fallen into the abyss and the future is flush with questions, opines Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Sullivan points to no hints ownership will increase payroll and a farm system which remains bereft of pitching talent at the upper levels and that would-be stars such as outfielder Brett Jackson and third baseman Josh Vitters have yet to pan out.
  • Within the same piece, Sullivan writes there's no chance manager Dale Sveum will be fired, as team President Theo Epstein believes the coaching staff has done a "fine" job.
  • The Cubs will have the second overall selection in the June 6 amateur draft, but Epstein warns not to pin the hopes of the franchise on that player. "There are some promising players on the way, but we have a lot of work to do," Epstein told Sullivan. "The No. 2 pick is a great opportunity, but one player by himself cannot make a system." 
  • The Cubs are eyeing pitchers Jonathan Gray of Oklahoma and Mark Appel of Stanford and third basemen Kris Bryant of San Diego and Colin Moran of North Carolina with that pick, reports MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. Manager Dale Sveum has been watching video of the quartet and provides Muskat with a brief scouting report on each.
  • With the Crosstown Classic against the White Sox beginning tomorrow, former South Side manager Ozzie Guillen said recently he would be willing to be a coach for the Cubs. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweeted Sveum's response, "I don't have no openings on my staff."

AL Notes: Brantley, Indians, Hendrickson, Angels

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While the Indians didn't get much for Cliff Lee, they did get one significant player in their 2008 trade of another Cy Young winner, C.C. Sabathia, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer argues. That would be outfielder Michael Brantley. Pluto stops short of defending that trade (which also included Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson) but notes that Brantley's hitting has gradually improved — he's hitting .312/.366/.399 this season. Here are more notes from around the American League.

  • With the fifth pick in the upcoming draft, the Indians would consider selecting Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel or Kris Bryant, if any of them fall that far, Paul Hoynes of the Plain-Dealer reports. That seems unlikely, however. Beyond that, Indians scouting director Brad Grant says Cleveland will "take the best available player," although he doesn't tip his hand about who that might be.
  • Mark Hendrickson of the Orioles is busy in Triple-A trying to make it back to the major leagues at 38, Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com reports. Hendrickson signed a minor-league deal with the O's in February. Now he's pitching entirely as a sidearmer. Dubroff notes that Hendrickson has played for four NBA teams (the 76ers, Kings, Nets and Cavaliers) as well as five MLB teams (the Blue Jays, Rays, Dodgers, Marlins and Orioles). He last appeared in the big leagues with the Orioles in 2011.
  • Angels manager Mike Scioscia is happy with his team's pitching depth, reports Robert Falkoff of MLB.com. Billy Buckner, who started on Saturday for the Angels, is the team's 10th starting pitcher of the season, and its 29th pitcher overall. "The organizational depth has been tested," says Scioscia. "It's an important part of what we need to do. I think we've seen the last couple of weeks that our pitchers have performed better. The fact that we've used so many is obviously not the template, but these guys are important to us."

Draft Links: Manaea, McGuire, Prep Catchers

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Kevin Gausman, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2012 draft, made his Major League debut for the Orioles last night. In a poll on Wednesday, roughly 39 percent of MLBTR readers agreed that Michael Wacha of the Cardinals would be the next first-round pick from last year's draft to make the leap to the big leagues. There are less than two weeks until the 2013 draft, and we'll keep track of today's draft-related news here…

  • The first mock draft from Jim Callis of Baseball America had the Astros taking Mark Appel No. 1 overall, but his newest version has the Astros taking Jonathan Gray.  That leaves Appel to go to the Cubs at No. 2, but it's not clear right now who the Cubs would take between the two pitchers if Houston winds up taking a hitter instead.
  • Callis views Sean Manaea as a complete wild card in this year's draft (Twitter link). He likens the Indiana State lefty to Lucas Giolito, who the Nationals drafted 16th overall last year. Like Giolito, Manaea was once considered a possible No. 1 overall selection, but injuries have caused his stock to fall and it's highly difficult to predict where he'll land.
  • Prep catcher Reese McGuire will have to make a tough choice between attending college and going pro, but he's eager for the draft nonetheless, writes MLB.com's Doug Miller.  While McGuire has a great opportunity to play ball at the University of San Diego, he might not be able to resist the pull of the majors if goes as high as he is projected to.  MLB.com currently has the catcher going No. 11 to the Mets.
  • McGuire isn't the only high school catcher who is drawing interest from clubs at the top of the draft, writes Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.  Behind him are Jon Denney from Oklahoma and South Carolina's Nick Ciuffo.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Quick Hits: Beltran, D’Backs, Montero, Draft, Cashner

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Epifanio "Epi" Guerrero, one of the key figures in the history of Dominican baseball, passed today at age 71.  Guerrero signed a number of notable international talents (including Cesar Cedeno, Carlos Delgado and Tony Fernandez) while working in the Astros, Yankees, Blue Jays and Brewers organizations as a scout and coach during a career that began in 1965.  Guerrero was one of the first scouts to be involved in the development of the academy system that gave countless young Dominican prospects chances at a professional career.  We here at MLBTR extend our condolences to Guerrero's friends and family on his passing.

Here are some news items from around the baseball world…

  • While it has been assumed that the Cardinals will part ways with Carlos Beltran after this season, Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch thinks both Beltran and the Cardinals could benefit from Beltran re-signing a short-term contract, provided the veteran was willing to take a hometown discount.  While Miklasz has a point that Beltran is a surer thing to produce for a contender than youngsters like Oscar Taveras or Matt Adams, I would be surprised if Beltran returned to St. Louis in 2014.  If the Cards were confident enough in their young talent to let Albert Pujols and Kyle Lohse go, they'll do with the same with Beltran.
  • The Diamondbacks may not need to make any major moves before the trade deadline, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes.  The Snakes have depth at several positions and further reinforcements are coming as some injured players return from the disabled list.  The only possible area of need could be at closer given J.J. Putz's elbow problems but GM Kevin Towers is "100% confident" that Putz will recover.
  • The Mariners talked with Jesus Montero about a long-term contract before he was linked to the Biogenesis scandal, but nothing came of those conversations, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets.  Earlier today, the M's demoted the 23-year-old to Triple-A.
  • If MLB announces that an international draft will take place in 2014, Baseball America's Ben Badler notes that teams like the Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals or Reds (who are likely to pick near the end of that draft's first round) could be wise to exceed the spending cap on international prospects this year.  Such teams would lose their 2014 or '15 international draft first-rounder for going over the cap, but it could be worth it to get a jump on the non-American/Canadian talent market.
  • MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo profiles some of the top corner infielders in the upcoming amateur draft, a list led by University of San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant.
  • ESPN's Keith Law discusses draft prospects, minor leaguers and other moves from around the game in a live chat with fans.
  • Andrew Cashner is making great strides as a starting pitcher for the Padres, MLB.com's Corey Brock writes.  Cashner has a 2.80 ERA in six starts for the Friars in 2013 after being limited to mostly bullpen work over his first three seasons due to injuries and concerns about his arm strength.  If Cashner develops into a solid starter, it will obviously give the Padres a much greater return on the Anthony Rizzo trade from January 2012.
  • The Rays' pitching depth is the envy of baseball, MLB.com's Bill Chastain writes, and that depth at the Major League level gives all their minor league arms time to properly develop into the club's next generation of rotation stalwarts.

MLBTR's Zach Links contributed to this post

Draft Notes: Astros, Appel, Gray, Cubs, Harvey

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MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo was asked on Twitter where high school outfielder Clint Frazier, whom many expect to go in the Top 10 of the MLB Draft, ranks in comparison to high school talents from previous drafts. Mayo notes that it's hard to ignore hindsight and view players in the same light as he did when they were amateurs, but he ranked Frazier as the eighth-best talent among 36 high school hitters selected in the first round dating back to 2009. Here's more on the draft…

  • The Astros have six players on their draft board but Frazier looks to be edging out Austin Meadows, leaving them with Frazier, Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Kris Bryant and Colin Moran, according to Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle. Bryant and Frazier are seen as dark horses if the team decides Appel and Gray aren't worth the money they're asking. Should Scott Boras and Appel highball the Astros, money will become an issue. Smith notes that it's very close between Appel and Gray, adding that Gray has ties to the Astros and is open to negotiating (All links to Smith's Twitter account).
  • Cubs president Theo Epstein, GM Jed Hoyer, top scouting/player development executive Jason McLeod and amateur scouting director Jaron Madison are currently in Oklahoma City to meet with Gray, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. The Cubs are still expected to take either Gray or Appel at No. 2 overall.
  • Bill Kiser of MLB.com profiles prep right-hander Hunter Harvey, whose stock has risen enough that he's considered a likely first-rounder. Harvey is the son of former MLB closer Bryan Harvey, who saved an AL-best 46 saves in 1991 and made two All-Star teams. The younger Harvey has a 0.38 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 54 2/3 high school innings this season. Harvey, whose fastball sits in the mid-90s and has touched 97, also features a solid curveball. Mayo had him going 25th to the Giants in his mock draft, while John Sickels of Minorleagueball.com has him going 30th to the Rangers and ESPN's Keith Law (Insider req'd) has him at No. 24 to the Athletics.

Draft Notes: Manaea, Outfielders

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The latest on the draft, which is just over two weeks away…

  • Indiana State pitcher Sean Manaea was pulled from today's game due to injury before throwing a pitch, according to Keith Law of ESPN.com (via Twitter).  The problem relates to the same hip issue that has plagued him this spring in conjunction with shoulder stiffness and Manaea could possibly pitch on Saturday instead, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com tweets.  The left-hander is one of the top prospects in this year's draft.
  • The outfielders in this year's draft have tremendous potential, Mayo writes.  Georgia high schoolers Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows are the top outfielders in this year's class and they both offer different skill sets.  One scouting director noted that while he is impressed with Frazier's strength, he is high on both players and is confident that they will be off the board inside of the first 12 picks. 
  • Click here to see who will be representing each team at the draft.
  • ESPN's Keith Law redrafted the 2003 draft, taking Matt Kemp, Ian Kinsler, and Aaron Hill with the first three picks rather than the reality of Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks, and Kyle Sleeth for the Rays, Brewers, and Tigers.  Be sure to check out the entire redraft article.
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