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NL East Notes: Bourjos, Young, Cano, Stanton

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People in baseball are trying to figure out the team that has not been named yet that could surprise everyone and come away with top free agent Robinson Cano.  Some have theorized that the Marlins could be that team to shock everyone, but new Miami GM Dan Jennings threw cold water on that idea when asked by Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  “It probably doesn’t fit,” said Jennings, who reportedly offered big bucks to Jose Dariel Abreu before he signed with the White Sox. “We have to know our market and our payroll and our history. And our history is to build around young players and add pieces when it has become very clear that we are ready to win.”

  • The Phillies remain in the market for starting pitching and relief help after signing Marlon Byrd earlier today, writes Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.  Starter Bronson Arroyo and reliever Joe Smith are two pitchers that the Phils have discussed.  Meanwhile, they might not be quite done in the outfield and they still have their eye on Angels center fielder Peter Bourjos.
  • A source tells Marc Carig of Newsday (on Twitter) that the Mets are showing interest in free agent outfielder Chris Young.
  • No surprise here, but Jennings also shot down the notion that the Marlins will trade Giancarlo Stanton.  That certainly won't stop other clubs from trying, however.
  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson told reporters, including Mike Puma of the New York Post, that the club likely won't be signing anyone to a $100MM contract.  Alderson said that while the Mets broke the $100MM barrier for star third baseman David Wright, he says that those were special circumstances.
  • The Mets are known to have interest in Curtis Granderson, but he could very well wind up outside of their price range, writes David Lennon of Newsday.  It's possible that a $50MM deal will be too rich for the Mets' blood and a $60MM asking price isn't out of the question.
  • The Nationals will likely need to add a more experienced backup catcher this offseason, someone who can step in full-time if Wilson Ramos gets injured again, writes Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com.

Mets Prioritizing Offense Over Pitching

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The Mets are in the market for offense this winter, so much so that they may not even spend much time considering the free agent market for pitchers. Asked whether the team's preference was to target upside or a stable veteran presence to eat some innings and mentor the Mets' young arms, special assistant J.P. Ricciardi told MLBTR:

“I think the one thing in our favor right now is our pitching in our organization is getting closer to being big-league ready, so that makes us say that we might have some in-house options. So maybe we wouldn't even be as inclined to go out and look at that market. It's kind of a work in progress to see what is available, but I think one of the securities we have is that at least we have some guys coming through the system that can get to the big leagues a little quicker. I don't know if we'd be as willing to jump on something like that right now.”

Instead, it appears that the Mets will focus their efforts on improving the team's offense. “We have a lot of holes in our lineup,” Ricciardi acknowledged, declining to target a specific area of focus. Ricciardi stated that the Mets are committed to Travis d'Arnaud at catcher though he was less committal when discussing Juan Lagares in center field: “I'd say right now, he's probably the guy that we'd say: 'He can play center field.' I think a lot depends on what we're able to bring around him.”

In terms of outfielders, the market is rife with power bats that could improve the Mets' lineup. Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson and Nelson Cruz could all provide a boost to the club's outfield group, though each would require a draft pick to sign. The Mets are open to forfeiting their second-round pick for “the right player,” though as Ricciardi put it, the team isn't “jumping up and down to give up any picks because we're still trying to build.” Should the Mets surrender a pick, one will likely be their limit. Ricciardi dismissed the possibility of the Mets being as aggressive as the Indians were last season in forfeiting a second-round pick in order to sign both Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher:

“I don't know if we'll be that involved with those type of guys. Like I said, it has to be the right guy for us to even do one, so I can't really sit here and tell you that we're probably thinking about doing two.”

I asked Ricciardi specifically about the organization's top pitching prospect, Noah Syndergaard, and his chances to make the Majors next season despite being just 20 years old: “I don't know. I think a lot's going to depend on how he handles Triple-A. I think we'll use that as a barometer. I don't think – and I can't speak for Sandy – but I don't think we're going to let anyone's youth get in the way. If he's ready to pitch in the big leagues, he's ready.”

Ricciardi also praised the arms of Rafael Montero and Jacob deGrom, as well as the team's core of young relief pitchers in reiterating that the offense will be this winter's primary focus. Asked if he had a preference toward right- or left-handed batters or corner outfielders versus shortstops, Ricciardi simply replied, “I would say 'bats.' We need to improve our offense.”

Giants Notes: Hudson, Sandoval, Haren

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The latest out of San Francisco..

  • One of the Giants’ chief pitching targets, Tim Hudson, is now willing to move across the country to pitch for the right team, sources tell Hank Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Schulman also hears that the Braves offered him a contract with a significantly smaller salary than he earned last year ($9MM), one he is not inclined to accept.
  • Schulman also caught up with MLB Network's Peter Gammons in Orlando, who told him the Giants are getting a lot of calls on Pablo Sandoval. It would make sense to listen on Sandoval because he is only signed through 2014 and has an injury history, but both reporters have heard that San Francisco not inclined to trade him because they have no real alternatives at third base.  The Giants also can't afford to lose Sandoval's power.
  • David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (on Twitter) hears the Giants are serious about signing a Hudson or Dan Haren type to a one- or two-year deal with a higher average salary than one might expect.

Cardinals Interested In Jed Lowrie

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The Cardinals are shopping for an upgrade at shortstop and Peter Gammons of Gammons Daily hears that Jed Lowrie of the Athletics is now on their list.  The A's could theoretically move Lowrie to fill a need elsewhere and promote Addison Russell to the majors this season. 

Meanwhile, despite the speculation that the Athletics would move Lowrie, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter) hears that it won't happen.  The plan all along has been for him to be a two-year bridge to Russell and they are now entering year two.

Lowrie, 29, hit .290/.344/.446 in 662 plate appearances last season for the A's.  The veteran came to Oakland in a five-player deal with the Astros in February 2013 .

Sherman On Tanaka, Reds, Chapman, Choo

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Here's a look at the latest news courtesy of the New York Post's Joel Sherman..

  • Sherman senses genuine worry from several teams about the way the Rakuten Golden Eagles used Masahiro Tanaka over the last few years.  In five postseason starts, Tanaka threw four complete games, including 160 pitches in Game 6 of the championship series.  The next day, he threw 15 more pitches to get the save in the clinching game.  An executive from an interested club said that he still expects significant bidding on Tanaka, but says that the pitcher will have to get through "the most thorough physical ever" to get a deal completed.
  • The Reds haven't showed their hand one way or another, but one team official believes that the ship has sailed on convincing Aroldis Chapman to pitch as a starter and the time to do it would have been last year.  With Bronson Arroyo likely going elsewhere, the Reds may have to think about finding an out-of-house replacement if Chapman won't join the rotation.  It's also possible that they could choose to stand pat and roll with a starting five of Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, and Tony Cingrani.
  • Don't count the Reds out in the bidding for Shin-Soo Choo, even though the price tag could exceed $100MM.  Cincinnati believes Billy Hamilton is ready to handle center field defensively, but they'd prefer he get more time in the minors to further refine his offense.  If they re-sign Choo, they can have him handle center field for one more year and maybe transition him to a corner in 2015, opening up a spot for the speedy Hamilton.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers made a return to the American League Championship Series in 2013 but saw themselves on the outside looking in for a second straight season, with the Red Sox advancing to the Fall Classic.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Free Agents

The first order of business this offseason was shored up when Detroit hired Brad Ausmus as their new skipper, giving the former catcher a three-year deal despite no prior Major League managerial experience. The Tigers will hope that Ausmus is adept at managing a clubhouse as Mike Matheny has been in St. Louis. With that out of the way, on-field issues can be addressed.

Two players that won't be returning are Jhonny Peralta and Brayan Pena, but the Tigers have in-house replacements ready to go. Detroit acquired the slick-fielding Jose Iglesias in this summer's three-team trade with the White Sox and Red Sox, and the Rookie of the Year runner-up is set to man the position for years to come. The Tigers said early that Pena would be allowed to test the open market in favor of in-house options Bryan Holaday and James McCann, and Pena responded quickly by inking a two-year pact with the Reds.

Second base and left field could be addressed on the free agent market. Some have speculated that the Tigers could be fits for top free agents Jacoby Ellsbury (despite the presence of Jackson) and Shin-Soo Choo. Both would provide major upgrades to the lineup, and there's probably not a lot of harm in delaying a full-time role for Castellanos until 2015, when he'll still be just 23 years old. In that scenario, Fielder and Cabrera could split time between DH and first base, with Castellanos moving to his natural position of third base.

It'd make sense for Detroit to pursue a reunion with Infante, and the free-spending Tigers have to at least be mentioned as a dark-horse candidate for Robinson Cano. Given their commitments to Verlander, Fielder and Sanchez plus the increasingly pressing need to address a Cabrera extension, Cano, Ellsbury and Choo seem to be unlikely targets. However, owner Mike Ilitch could consider one of them the final piece needed to secure a World Series championship in his lifetime.

The Tigers marched to the 2013 ALCS with the game's most dominant rotation with the American League's most dominant rotation in terms of ERA (3.44) and Major League Baseball's most dominant rotation in terms of innings pitched (1,023), FIP (3.12) and fWAR (25.3). That entire group is set to return in 2014, but there are rumblings that Scherzer is on the trading block this offseason, as the Tigers can afford to deal from that depth and know they have little to no chance of extending the Scott Boras standout with his first taste of free agency so close at hand. Porcello's name has also come up in recent trade rumblings.

Any trade involving Scherzer could be used as a means to fill the team's hole at second base with Infante departing, and it could also bring in a more impactful bat behind the plate than Avila. The Tigers badly need bullpen depth, but a hard-throwing, high-upside reliever would be a mere complementary piece in a Scherzer trade as opposed to a focal point. Left field presents a need as well, though Castellanos could be a cost-effective option at that position.

Porcello would command a lesser return, though he's incredibly yet to turn 25 years old (he will in December). Porcello has two years of team control remaining and is coming off his best season in terms of strikeouts (142 total, 7.1 K/9), ground-ball rate (55.3 percent), FIP (3.53), xFIP (3.19) and fWAR (3.2). His 4.32 ERA doesn't paint as pretty a picture, but it was the second-best mark of his career.

The presence of Drew Smyly allows Detroit to consider moving one of Scherzer or Porcello, but it's fair to wonder if such a trade would simply worsen what was arguably the team's biggest weakness — bullpen depth.

The Tigers may have enviable depth in the rotation, but that is not the case when it comes to their relief corps. Dombrowski and Co. elected to stay in-house last offseason and were met with a carousel early in the season that led to the return of Jose Valverde. While Papa Grande stabilized the position briefly, he soon melted down and found himself designated for assignment. Benoit solidified the position for the remainder of the season but now finds himself a free agent.

A reunion with Benoit would make sense and could cost something like $16MM over a two-year term, but the prize of the relief market is likely Joe Nathan. There's mutual interest between the Tigers and the 39-year-old Nathan, who leads all active pitchers in saves. Nathan is coming off the second-best ERA (1.39) and the best ERA+ (297) of his storied career. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes projected a two-year, $26MM contract for Nathan, and the Tigers are one team that could afford to pay him so lavishly. Theoretically, the Tigers may even be able to add Nathan and still ink Benoit on a two-year deal as a setup man.

The Tigers could also use a left-handed reliever. Coke is a non-tender candidate after a brutal 5.40 ERA, and the team already lost Darin Downs on waivers to the Astros. Names like Javier Lopez, J.P. Howell and Boone Logan are all available on the free agent market for lefty relievers.

Ultimately, the Tigers could stand pat this offseason and still perhaps be considered the front-runners for the AL Central crown, but don't expect that to happen. Dombrowski has routinely made significant additions over the past several seasons, and he's often acted quickly. Recent November moves have included the signings of Benoit, Martinez and Hunter as well as the Peralta's extension in 2010. The Tigers have a clear need at second base and figure to be aggressive in their pursuit of bullpen help as they look to capitalize on their brilliant rotation and the prime years of Cabrera's career.

Arbitration Breakdown: Cishek, Jansen, Holland, Frieri

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Over the next few months, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

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The league is full of young closers nowadays, and they all seem to be entering their first year of arbitration at the same time. There are seven different pitchers with at least 16 saves in 2013 who are entering arbitration for the first time, nearly a quarter of the entire league’s closers. Craig Kimbrel has already been discussed in a previous article and his case is far stronger than any of the other pitchers. Aroldis Chapman has a pretty unique case, if not a better one, because he has been an elite closer for two years and will be opting out of a large contract to go through arbitration. Mark Melancon is different than the others as well, because he only really was a closer in the second half of this season, and only due to injury. However, there are a number of similarities between Ernesto Frieri, Steve Cishek, Greg Holland, and Kenley Jansen, and this article will be about the cases for each of them. The model only sees arbitration salaries of $3.4MM for Frieri and $3.2MM for Cishek, while it sees $4.9MM for Holland and $4.8MM For Jansen. In this article, I will explain why the model is making these predictions and discuss whether the actual salaries will diverge this much.

For relievers, the primary determinants of their arbitration salaries are the number of saves they had in their platform season, and the number of saves they had before their platform season, as well as the number of holds in their platform season and pre-platform season. To a lesser extent, platform-year ERA and pre-platform year ERA are important as well, and innings and strikeouts all play a key role too.

Holland has the most platform year saves of the group, with 47 this past year, on top of the 20 pre-platform saves he had. This number along with his 1.21 ERA explains why he had the largest salary projection of this group at $4.9MM. Although Jansen had fewer saves than the others with 28, his 1.88 ERA was better than Cishek’s 2.33 and far better than Frieri’s 3.80 this past season. Combining that with his 2.22 ERA pre-platform (better than the other three) and his 16 holds, and Jansen is projected nearly as high as Holland, with a $4.8MM estimate. Jansen’s 34 pre-platform saves were also the highest of the four, and his 21 pre-platform holds stood only behind Holland’s 27.

Frieri did have 37 saves in 2013 and 23 more beforehand, which is definitely a good case. Although his 3.80 ERA is high for a closer, his 98 strikeouts are way more than Cishek’s 74, but less than Holland’s 103 and Jansen’s 111. Cishek had 34 saves in 2013 with 18 pre-platform. Frieri is projected to get $3.4MM and Cishek is projected for $3.2MM.

The record for closers entering their first year of eligibility still belongs to Jonathan Papelbon at $6.25MM (until Kimbrel breaks this record). His 41 platform year saves and 72 pre-platform saves puts him well ahead of this group. Even Bobby Jenks’ 30 platform year saves were augmented by his 87 pre-platform year saves, putting him ahead of this group when he got a $5.6MM salary back in 2009.

Looking for pitchers who had similar pre-platform saves as well as platform saves is important, since anyone with three years of closing will have earned more than this group of four will. Holland’s 47 platform year save count and 20 pre-platform year save count are a pretty unique pairing, so it will tough to find a perfect comparable. Everyone with over 40 saves in recent memory during their platform years had more pre-platform year saves.

Brian Wilson’s 38 platform-year saves and 48 pre-platform year saves make for an interesting comparable. In 2010, he earned $4.46MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Of course, his 2.74 ERA is far worse than Holland’s 1.21, so there seems to be a good chance that Holland could top this salary. On the other hand, if pre-platform year saves becomes important, than perhaps J.J. Putz’s 2007 numbers of 36 platform-year saves and 10 pre-platform year saves could be a floor—but he only earned $2.7MM. Given how stale that number is at this point, I don’t see Putz’s name coming up in negotiations. I think that Holland will have a hard time arguing for anywhere over $5MM, which is what John Axford earned last year after accumulating 35 platform year saves and 71 pre-platform year saves, so I think that the $4.9MM estimate is probably about right for him.

For Jansen, his 28 pre-platform saves are on the low side, but his 16 holds, 1.88 ERA, and 111 strikeouts augment his case. He also 34 pre-platform year saves and his 2.22 ERA and 236 strikeouts before his platform year are a strength as well, in addition to the 21 holds he had already accumulated. Andrew Bailey’s 2012 arbitration salary of $3.9MM could come up as a comparable for him. He had 24 saves in his platform-year but 51 in his pre-platform year, so he could be argued to be a ceiling for Jansen based on the pre-platform save total. However, his 3.24 platform-year ERA is far behind Jansen’s 1.88 and Jansen’s holds could help make up for the gap in pre-platform saves. Especially given the fact that Bailey had only 41 strikeouts in his platform season, I could see $3.9MM being a floor for Jansen.

Another potential comparable could be Chad Cordero, who received $4.15MM back in 2007. Although this is a stale number at this point, the 29 saves that Cordero had in his platform year are similar to Jansen’s 28, and even though his 62 pre-platform year saves beat Jansen, his 3.19 ERA and 69 strikeouts fall short of him. Furthmore, Jansen’s holds are really unique for a guy who has mostly been a closer and give him a small leg up on other names that keep coming up. In the end, something in the $4.8MM neighborhood could be a good bet, though I could see him ending up with less than this if platform year saves become too large of a factor.

Looking for comparables for Frieri is tricky if the high ERA comes into play. Even though he accumulated 37 saves in 2013, the 3.80 ERA that went along with them is abnormally high for a closer. In recent years, few such pitchers have met their criteria. Axford had a 4.68 ERA going into last year’s negotiations, which yielded him $5MM, but given that he had 71 pre-platform saves, that would dwarf Frieri’s 23, despite the similar number of saves during their platform years. Chad Cordero’s name might make some sense as well, when he earned $4.15MM in 2007, but his 62 pre-platform year saves are also too many to make for a good comparable and an ERA of 3.19 isn’t so bad either.

Another name that could come up in the negotiations over Frieri’s salary is Juan Carlos Oviedo, who had a 4.06 ERA in 2009. He only had 26 saves though and no pre-platform saves. These factors got him only a $2MM salary, which probably is way below what Frieri will receive. Brian Wilson keeps coming up as a ceiling for Frieri. He had 38 platfrom year saves and 48 pre-platfrom year saves, so he has Frieri on the pre-platform year saves, and his 2.74 ERA is much better as well. His $4.46MM salary will almost definitely exceed Frieri’s.

It’s hard to pick anyone who makes sense in between these numbers so really anywhere from $2MM to 4.4MM seems possible for Frieri. Of course, I suspect he’ll be somewhere in the middle of these two extremes, so I think that the $3.4MM projection is about right.

Cishek had 34 saves last year, but with only 18 pre-platform saves, he probably has a weaker case than these other closers. Pre-platform year saves matter a lot for first-time eligible closers, so looking for his comparables will entail limiting this. Akinori Otsuka seems to line up in some ways, but his projection is very stale. Back in 2007, he earned $3MM after recording 32 saves and a 2.11 ERA, but he only had 3 saves prior to his platform year. Since Cishek’s ERA was 2.33, it could be that $3MM becomes a floor for Cishek. On the other hand, David Aardsma received $2.75MM in 2010 after recording 38 saves, but those were the first of his career. Given his 18 career holds are similar to Cishek’s 16, and his 2.52 ERA is also near Cishek’s, I could see the Marlins trying to hold down Cishek’s salary by suggesting this comparable.

Of course, if Cishek can downplay the importance of pre-platform saves, he may be able to sneak Brian Wilson’s $4.46MM salary into the argument. Wilson had 38 platform year saves, which is similar to Cishek’s 34, and his 2.74 ERA was higher than Cishek’s 2.33. However, I suspect the 48 pre-platform saves will make it hard to make this argument. Cishek coming in near $3.2MM as he is projected, just above Otsuka’s $3MM and Aardma’s $2.75MM seems likely.

Overall, despite the uncertainty and the difficulties in finding perfect comparables, it seems like the model is probably about right on all four of these guys. Although they each may be used as comparables for each other if one or two sign earlier than the others, drawing their salaries closer together based on the similarities between their platform year and pre-platform year saves, I suspect that the large gap in ERA and strikeouts ends up pushing them further apart, as well as Holland’s standout headline of 47 saves.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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After a last place finish in 2012, a heralded offseason helped bring the Red Sox a World Series title in 2013.  What can the Sox and GM Ben Cherington do for an encore this winter?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Free Agents

Other Payroll Obligations

A winning strategy always draws imitators, and there's no doubt many clubs took note of how the Red Sox returned to prominence after eschewing big-ticket moves in favor of less-expensive and more measured free agent signings in the 2012-13 offseason.  Adding the right mid-tier free agents can definitely help turn a 69-game winner into a World Series champion in one offseason — just as long as you have the likes of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, John Lackey and Clay Buchholz already on your roster and they all make big rebounds from down seasons.  While the free agents, improved team chemistry, and addition of John Farrell as manager unquestionably helped, Boston's worst-to-first title run isn't as much a case of a bad team suddenly becoming great as it was a good team getting back on track after a Murphy's Law season in 2012.

The strength of the Sox core is illustrated in their list of guaranteed contracts and the four arbitration-eligible players likely to be tendered contracts.  Those 16 players account for just under $128MM in payroll and only three are guaranteed money beyond next season.  This gives the Red Sox tons of flexibility in filling their few holes, whether it's re-signing some key players, taking on a big salary in a trade or making more forays into free agency.  While their core is strong, the Sox aren't afraid to shake things up in order to make the roster even stronger over the long run.

Let's start with Ellsbury, Boston's biggest internal free agent case.  The Red Sox made at least two attempts to lock up their center fielder before he hit the open market, and now Ellsbury heads into free agency wearing another World Series ring and coming off a .298/.355/.426 season that included nine homers, 92 runs scored and a league-best 52 stolen bases.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes ranks Ellsbury second on his free agent power rankings and recently guessed that Ellsbury and agent Scott Boras could find a contract in the $150MM range. 

If the bidding goes that high, Boston could be out, as the club is reportedly unwilling to greatly exceed the $100MM threshold for Ellsbury.  I'd still consider the Red Sox as the favorites to sign Ellsbury but it wouldn't be the first time that Boras has scored an inflated contract for one of this clients.  If a team (or teams) push the bidding past $125MM, expect Ellsbury to be playing in another team's uniform in 2014.  It's not that Boston couldn't afford such a contract, but in the wake of the Carl Crawford deal, the Sox are wary about paying a speed-based player big dollars into his 30's.

If Ellsbury leaves, the Sox could give Jackie Bradley a chance at the center field job.  Bradley (a consensus top-40 prospect in preseason rankings from MLB.com, Baseball America and ESPN's Keith Law) has put up big minor league numbers and could join Will Middlebrooks and Xander Bogaerts as the latest homegrown prospects to step into the Boston lineup.  Bradley could be used in a platoon to begin with, and the Sox could look for a right-handed hitting CF in the mold of a Rajai Davis or a Reed Johnson to add to the outfield depth chart.

Napoli has said he wants to return to Boston, and a reunion could happen if a three-year/$42MM contract is indeed Napoli's price.  There have been rumors, however, that the club isn't keen on giving Napoli three guaranteed years and Boston's pursuit of Jose Dariel Abreu could be a sign that the Sox are ready to move on from Napoli.  Mike Carp dominated right-handed pitching in 2013, though his less-impressive career splits indicate that the Sox would probably prefer to keep Carp as a part-timer rather than a semi-everyday first baseman. 

First base is a relatively easy enough position to fill that the Sox might prefer the compensatory first round draft pick that they would receive if Napoli signs elsewhere.  Stephen Drew, similarly, might not be as valuable to the Sox as a first-round pick, since the presence of Bogaerts and Middlebrooks on the left side of the infield makes Drew's return problematic (barring some position juggling).  Since Drew will draw attention from several shortstop-needy teams, my guess is the Red Sox will move on. 

While Ellsbury, Napoli and Drew received qualifying offers, Jarrod Saltalamacchia did not.  He could be re-signed but a slugging catcher who isn't tied to any draft pick compensation will surely draw a lot of attention from other teams, and another club could very well give him a four-year contract (Boston is reportedly willing to give "Salty" as many as three guaranteed years).  The Red Sox are, however, a team that could be well-positioned to sign Brian McCann.  Boston would have to surrender their first round draft pick (30th overall) to sign McCann but that's no big loss since the club could gain as many as three compensatory picks if Ellsbury, Napoli and/or Drew left.  A five-year, $80MM contract would allow the Sox to install McCann behind the plate for a few seasons until Ryan Lavarnway, Blake Swihart or Christian Vazquez emerges as a catcher of the future, and then McCann could become a DH…provided that the ageless Ortiz isn't still mashing, that is.

Elsewhere around the diamond, if Drew leaves, the Sox are a good bet to sign a veteran infielder who can play either third or shortstop if Bogaerts or Middlebrooks struggles.  The Daniel Nava/Jonny Gomes platoon worked out well in left field and should continue, while it will be business as usual for the trio of Pedroia, Ortiz and Shane Victorino.  It could be argued that Boston's offseason really began when they managed to lock up Pedroia to a below-market extension in July, a move that should aid the Sox payroll for the better part of the next decade.

The team boasts strong rotation depth with Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Jake Peavy, Felix Doubront, Ryan Dempster and younger arms like Brandon Workman, Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa in reserve.  If that wasn't enough, the Sox have checked in on free agent starter Tim Hudson, which would seem to hint that one or more of the current starters could be moved in a trade.  The Red Sox could sell high on Lackey, or perhaps deal Peavy following his postseason struggles.  Dempster would probably be the preferred candidate to deal given rough 2013 season, age (36) and $13.25MM salary.  Boston could try to mine trade value from his durability and home/away splits to prove that Dempster could pitch better in a friendly environment than Fenway Park.

Lester would be an even bigger trade chip if the Sox wanted to really make a splash, and we know that Lester was shopped to the Royals last offseason following his disappointing 2012 campaign.  While Lester could bring back a huge return, it's more likely that the Red Sox will look to extend the southpaw given his return to form in 2013 with a strong regular season and outstanding playoff run.  No talks have yet taken place about another multiyear extension, though the Sox already made the easy call of picking up Lester's 2014 option.

Koji Uehara easily passed the 55-game plateau that caused his 2014 option to vest, and his emergence as a lockdown closer makes his $4.5MM salary for next season seem like a bargain.  Uehara's dominance solved a lot of problems in the Sox bullpen though there will be holes to fill as Andrew Bailey will likely be non-tendered and Matt Thornton's option has already been declined.  Joel Hanrahan could be re-signed to a low-cost deal since the former closer missed almost all of 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Between a surprise World Series win, their talented veteran core and the minor league system with the best short-term potential of any in baseball, these are heady times for the Red Sox.  It's probably too much to expect everything to again work out for the franchise in 2014, just as it was pessimistic to presume that things would continue to spiral downward following the disastrous 2012 season.  If the team does even as half as good a job filling their holes as they did last winter, however, expect more postseason action at Fenway Park.

Quick Hits: Santana, Red Sox, Kuroda, Cano, Bay

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Even with the high cost of free agent pitching, Ervin Santana's hopes for a $100MM contract seemed a little far-fetched…or are they?  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports looked at the binder of information that agents Bean Stringfellow and Joe White prepared about their client and saw a wealth of favorable statistics in Santana's favor, noting his durability, good health, and even comparisons to Zack Greinke.  MLBTR's Steve Adams only predicted a five-year, $75MM deal for Santana on the open market but it only takes one team to make a leap. 

Here's some news from around baseball…

  • Red Sox GM Ben Cherington said that the team has "real interest at different levels" in re-signing its six free agents, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports.  Cherington has "had conversations" about bringing back Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Joel Hanrahan and John McDonald, though Abraham reports that the team has most extensively discussed a new deal with Napoli.
  • The Red Sox aren't expected to make acquisitions during the GM meetings this week, Cherington said.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman has "no idea" if Hiroki Kuroda is interested in returning to the club, Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger reports.  “My conversations with his agent, the only information I’ve gotten from that is he hasn’t made any decisions, what he wants to do as far as next year’s concerned," Cashman said.  Kuroda has been rumored to be weighing re-signing with the Yankees, pitching in Japan or retiring, though a return to southern California to be closer to his family probably isn't out of the question either.
  • Robinson Cano's next contract might not meet his expectations simply because the Yankees are the only team with the need and finances to come close to his demands, Bill Madden of the New York Daily News writes.
  • Jason Bay isn't sure if he will play in 2014, Sportsnet.ca's Shi Davidi tweets.  The 35-year-old Bay was released by the Mariners in August and only has a .688 OPS in 1361 PA over his last four seasons, most of which were shortened by injury.
  • Agent Barry Praver said that his clients Manny Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano were hoping to again play in the Major Leagues, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links).  Ramirez is staying in shape and would be open to playing in Japan, while Zambrano is pitching in the Venezuelan winter league.
  • Wily Mo Pena is expected to re-sign in Japan, Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith reports (Twitter link).  Pena signed a two-year, $5MM deal with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks following the 2011 season and enjoyed a big 2012 before suffering through an injury-plagued 2013 campaign.  Nicholson-Smith notes that Pena had interested suitors in both Japan and North America.  Pena turns 32 in January and hit .250/.303/.445 with 84 homers in 1845 career PA with the Reds, Red Sox, Nationals, Diamondbacks and Mariners from 2002-11.

AL West Links: Mariners, Cruz, Napoli, Preller, Angels

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"The expectation is" that the Mariners will target right-handed hitters such as Jhonny Peralta, Marlon Byrd, Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz this offseason, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes.  The M's were particularly weak from the right side of the plate last season and will look to upgrade their right-handed bats, though really, Seattle will look to add hitting in any form.  Ken Rosenthal also noted that the Mariners were looking at right-handed hitters earlier this week, though he noted that the M's were in on Napoli.  Here's some more news from around the AL West…

  • Cruz declined his qualifying offer from the Rangers today and Adam Katz, Cruz's agent, told ESPN Dallas' Richard Durrett that he will continue to talk with the team about his client's possible return to Texas.  "We've always been engaged with the Rangers and continue to be," Katz said.  Durrett notes, the draft pick compensation tied to Cruz may hurt him in free agency, though MLBTR's Steve Adams recently predicted Cruz would find a three-year, $39MM deal on the open market.
  • Brian Grieper, Napoli's agent, is scheduled to meet with Rangers GM Jon Daniels during the GM Meetings, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets.  The Rangers are known to be looking for an upgrade at first base and Napoli, a former Ranger, would definitely fit the bill.
  • The Rangers have promoted A.J. Preller to assistant general manager, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (Twitter link).  Preller had previously worked as the team's senior director of player personnel.  Texas also named Mike Daly, formerly their director of international scouting, as the franchise's new senior director of minor league operations.
  • The Angels have been opposed to going over the luxury tax limit under Arte Moreno's ownership and that's not likely to change, MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez writes.  Gonzalez also looks at Mark Trumbo trade rumors and a possible Mike Trout extension as part of his all-Angels mailbag.
  • In another item from Gonzalez, he speculates about what the Angels might have to give up (and what the Rays might want) in order to facilitate a David Price trade.
  • Earlier today on MLBTR we collected another set of AL West notes earlier today on MLBTR, a set of Astros-related notes and learned that the Angels signed Wade LeBlanc to a minor league deal.

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