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AL East Notes: Hanley, Madson, Happ, Rays

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Hanley Ramirez “is going to be our first baseman,” a high-ranking Red Sox source tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford.  The club is committed to using Ramirez at first in 2016 and the Sox have mapped out a rough 140-game schedule for Ramirez at the position.  The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported earlier today that the Red Sox were shopping Ramirez.  While this statement from Bradford’s source won’t end that speculation, it only makes sense that the club is preparing as if Ramirez will be on the roster rather than assuming a trade partner will be found.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski also said the Sox were intent on using Ramirez at first during his season-end media conference, for what it’s worth.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • The Red Sox will likely need to make a decision about whether to keep or trade Ramirez before the Winter Meetings if they want a shot at signing Chris Davis, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes.  Davis could well agree to a deal at the Meetings, leaving Boston looking for lower-tier first basemen as platoon options to share time with Travis Shaw and utilityman Brock Holt.  Signing Davis before trading Ramirez, of course, isn’t feasible since it would leave the Sox with zero negotiating position in trade talks.
  • The Blue Jays are looking at relievers with closing experience, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter link), and Ryan Madson is one of the names under consideration.  Madson had a tremendous year as the Phillies’ closer in 2011 but then missed the next three seasons with injuries before reviving his career in the Royals’ bullpen in 2015.  In looking for former closers, it stands to reason that the Jays are still considering stretching out current ninth-inning man Roberto Osuna as a starter.  The Tigers and Dodgers have also been rumored to be interested in Madson this offseason.
  • J.A. Happ discussed signing with the Blue Jays in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link), saying that multiple teams showed interest but “Toronto was really aggressive” in making a deal happen.  Happ was also swayed by his past stint in Toronto, his good relationships with John Gibbons and pitching coach Pete Walker, and the fact that the Jays look to be contenders again next year.  The southpaw said the Pirates, his former club, were one of the clubs with interest but talks “never quite got there” (hat tip to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).
  • The Rays seem to overhaul their bullpen every winter but their 2016 relief corps appears to be mostly set, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Brad Boxberger, Jake McGee, Steve Geltz and three out-of-options arms in Enny Romero, Xavier Cedeno and Alex Colome seem to be the top six, with Andrew Bellatti and newcomer Danny Farquhar also on hand and probably a couple of veterans on minor league deals to eventually be signed for additional depth.  Of course, Topkin notes that this stable bullpen plan could be greatly shuffled if the strong interest in Boxberger and McGee actually induces the Rays to part with one in a trade.
  • In other AL East notes from earlier today, the Blue Jays’ GM search is down to two known finalists, the Orioles have some interest in Denard Span and MLBTR’s Zach Links compiled another set of division notes.

Orioles Interested In Denard Span

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The Orioles have “some level of interest” in free agent outfielder Denard Span, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  It isn’t clear exactly how deep this interest is, Kubatko notes, though Span’s name has been discussed within Baltimore’s front office with some pro-Span voices feeling he would be a fit as the team’s new right fielder.

Span has only played in 124 games in right during his career and none since 2009, though his normal center field spot obviously isn’t an option in Baltimore due to Adam Jones’ presence.  Advanced metrics like UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved paint Span as a strong defensive center fielder for much of his career but he’s been below-average in both categories in each of the last two seasons, so a move to right may be necessary anyway as he enters his age-32 season.

Switching to a less-strenuous outfield position may also help keep Span off the DL, which is no small matter in the wake of his injury-plagued 2015 season.  Between recovering from offseason core muscle surgery, a bad back and then hip surgery in late August, Span played in just 61 games for Washington last year.  The good news is that when he did play, he was still very effective (.301/.365/.431 in 275 PA and a perfect 11-for-11 in steals) and he would fill a void for Baltimore as a leadoff hitter with on-base skills.  Kubatko implies that Span’s health is the Orioles’ biggest concern in deciding whether or not to sign him — while every team undoubtedly weighs such factors, the O’s have been very particular in the past about avoiding players with injury red flags.

Span’s shortened 2015 lowered his price tag, though MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes still projected Span to receive a three-year, $39MM deal this winter.  A contract in that range seems reasonable for a medium-spending team like Baltimore, though between four guaranteed contracts and a large arbitration class, the O’s already have around $93MM committed to next year’s payroll and they still need to address both corner outfield slots, the starting rotation, bullpen and first base.

That last position could be filled if the Orioles were to re-sign Chris Davis, though he would account for another $20MM+ in salary.  The O’s have also been rumored to be interested in signing Yovani Gallardo or in trading for Jay Bruce or Neil Walker, so the team certainly appears to be weighing all options in deciding how to address its various roster holes.

Ross Atkins, Tony LaCava Are Finalists For Blue Jays’ GM Position

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Indians VP of player personnel Ross Atkins and Blue Jays interim general manager Tony LaCava are finalists for Toronto’s GM vacancy, sources familiar with the situation tell Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  There could potentially be one or more unknown candidates also in the finalist stage of the Jays’ search, though Heyman’s sources would “be surprised if anyone besides Atkins or LaCava” gets the job.  Team president/CEO Mark Shapiro reportedly hopes to have someone hired prior to next week’s Winter Meetings.

Both Atkins and LaCava have ties to Shapiro from his long stint in Cleveland.  Atkins has spent the last 15 years working for the Tribe’s front office while LaCava briefly worked as a cross-checker for the Indians in 2002 before moving on to the Blue Jays.  As Heyman notes, it has been assumed that Shapiro will have the final say on baseball operations matters.

LaCava’s long tenure with Toronto (including a role as assistant GM since 2007) made him the logical choice to slide into the interim role after Alex Anthopoulos surprisingly declined to re-sign with the team.  He’s already been busy in his short stint, as the Jays have re-signed Marco Estrada, signed J.A. Happ and traded for Jesse Chavez in an effort to bolster their starting rotation.  Whether LaCava gets the full-time job or not, he’ll be remaining with the team in some capacity as he signed a long-term extension a few weeks ago.

Both LaCava and Atkins would be first-time general managers, though each has been linked to GM openings in the past — in fact, both interviewed for the Angels job this winter before Billy Eppler was hired for the job.  Atkins also interviewed with the Phillies about their GM position in mid-October.  LaCava interviewed with the Pirates and Orioles prior to those club’s respective hirings of Neal Huntington and Dan Duquette, and LaCava reportedly turned down Baltimore’s offer to remain in Toronto.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post

Profiling Possible Top Rule 5 Picks

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After finishing with the worst record in baseball, the Phillies will pick first in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.  The draft, set to be held on December 10th, is the final activity of the Winter Meetings. Teams have a chance to select players from rival franchises with a main rules:

  • Any player on the 40-man roster is protected
  • Players signed at age 19 or older are protected for four seasons
  • Players signed at age 18 or older are protected for five seasons

If none of those conditions apply to a player, then he may be selected in the draft. Draft picks cost $50K and the drafting team must keep a player on the major league roster for the entire season in order to retain him. Injured players must spend at least 90 active days on the roster.

If a team decides not to fulfill these conditions, the former club can reacquire the player for $25K. Sometimes, the team refuses to pay the fee, as was the case when the Phillies selected Shane Victorino from the Dodgers. There is also a minor league portion of the draft with slightly different rules and requirements. For the scope of this post, we’ll focus on the major league portion.

The Phillies and the Rule 5 Draft

The Phillies are one of the most successful teams in the Rule 5 draft in recent years. Dating back to 2009, they’ve made the following picks: David Herndon (2009), Michael Martinez (2010), Ender Inciarte (2012), Kevin Munson (2013), Odubel Herrera (2014), and Andy Oliver (2014).

Herndon, Martinez, and Herrera were the most successful of those picks with Herrera looking like a building block for Philadelphia. Many of you will recognize Inciarte, an able outfielder for the Diamondbacks. The Phillies failed to keep him on the active roster for a season and had to return him.

Teams generally select players who fit one of these profiles:

  • Left-handed relievers
  • Hard throwing, wild pitching prospects
  • Back-up catchers
  • Polished hitters with uncertain defense
  • Athletic, raw position players

Herrera, along with fellow successful pick Delino DeShields (Rangers), fell into the latter category. The toolsy athletes are probably the riskiest bucket to pick, but they also come with the highest upside.

In full rebuild mode, it’s my opinion that the Phillies will benefit most from an aggressive pick at first overall. Rather than playing the relief market, I expect them to target a possible starting left fielder.  Herrera and Aaron Altherr are the only two starting outfielders on the roster. Both are exciting young players who emerged during the 2015 season. Both also come with risk. The Phillies will want to build redundancy.

Other options on the 40-man roster include Cody Asche, Darnell Sweeney, and Roman Quinn. Asche and Sweeney are penciled in as the left field platoon, but that’s not how the team will enter Spring Training. Quinn is not yet major league ready. Given the internal options, there is room to give a Rule 5 pick a long look in left field.

The 40-man roster currently stands at 37, meaning the club could pick up to three players if it chooses. Rarely do teams take more than two, but the Phillies might be the exception. The bullpen is a work in progress, and there are enough interesting relievers to give two a look after picking an outfielder.

The Candidates

We recently cited J.J Cooper of Baseball America’s list of Rule 5 names to remember. Of those, five stand out as first pick material to me. This is not to say that the Phillies scouts won’t fall in love with another player or decide to go with a pitcher. But these are my best guesses to go first overall in the draft.

Jabari Blash, OF, SEA

This is the second time Blash, 26, is eligible for the draft. The Mariners left him unprotected last year, and he went unpicked. That’s unlikely to happen this year after he blasted 32 home runs between Double- and Triple-A.  It wasn’t a matter of dominating the weaker opponents either. After a BABIP-fueled outburst in Double-A, the righty finished with 22 home runs in 228 plate appearances in Triple-A. His BABIP actually fell to .263, yet he still posted a strong .264/.355/.640 line.

Pros: Power, athleticism, a high walk rate, upper-minors success, and plus defense.

Cons: A big whiff rate that could get out of hand in the majors.

Tyler Goeddel, OF, TBR

Cooper describes Goeddel, 23, as one of the most polished hitters in the draft. The right-handed hitter is eligible for the first time after hitting .279./350/.433 over 533 plate appearances at Double-A. He’s a well-rounded asset with some power (12 home runs) and speed (28 stolen bases).

Pros: Athleticism, youth, plate discipline, plus defense, power, and speed.

Cons: Yet to reach Triple-A.

Jake Cave, OF, NYY

Entering his age 23 season, Cave is still relatively young like Goeddel. He was once thought to possess upside similar to Jacoby Ellsbury, but injuries and time have sapped his speed. The lefty is viewed as an ideal fourth outfielder with some latent power, decent wheels, and the ability to do a passable job in center field. He hit .269/.330/.345 in 563 Double-A plate appearances. He received a brief, successful trial in Triple-A too.

Pros: Can play all three outfield spots, decent contact skills and plate discipline

Cons: More of a fourth outfielder

Zach Borenstein, OF/1B, ARI

Borenstein, 24, is a left-handed power prospect who has lost some steam. He performed well at Double-A last season with a BABIP-fueled .314/.394/.511 line in 327 plate appearances. He was miserable in a 53 plate appearance try in Triple-A. A questionable defender, Borenstein may be a better candidate for the Phillies second pick.

Pros: History of power, strong plate discipline once he adapts to a level

Cons: Iffy Triple-A track record, game power was best in 2013

Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B, KAN

Now there’s an 80-grade baseball name. As you might expect, Fuenmayor is a right-handed, aggressive power hitter. The 26-year-old is recovering from a torn ACL.

When healthy, Fuenmayor hit  .354/.386/.591 with 15 home runs in 308 Double-A plate appearances. He also had a small sample of success in Triple-A. Unlike the others listed here, he’s a first baseman if not a designated hitter. The Phillies have two of those – Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf. They might be willing to try another.

Pros: Excellent half season in 2015, power and contact skills

Cons: Aggressive, questionable defender

My best guess

I expect the Phillies to select Goeddel or Blash first overall. Both are candidates to step in and perform at a high level much like Herrera did last season. At the very least, they’ll offer plus defense. Their multi-faceted skill sets should ensure other means of production too. Goeddel is probably the safer of the two options, and I like that he’s younger too.

Remember, these picks can be traded. There’s nothing stopping the Phillies from taking a shot on both athletes. They’re liable to match the production of Sweeney who can be optioned. Asche is viewed as a trade candidate. The trade route would also give the club the option of evaluating two players during the spring and picking their favorite. It’s probably an unlikely path, but it’s an open option.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Happ, Colon

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Former Orioles executive Andy MacPhail believed in the “grow the arms” philosophy because he felt that getting pitching was expensive and getting it any other way proved to be expensive.  After watching J.A. Happ ink a deal with a $12MM AAV, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com agrees with the expensive part.  Happ, of course, finished the 2015 season with a stellar 1.85 ERA over 11 starts for the Pirates, but he posted a 4.64 ERA in his previous 20 starts for Seattle.  Happ’s overall track record is one of mediocrity and Melewski can’t quite understand why the Blue Jays paid that much for him.  He’s not alone in that thinking, either.

Here’s more on Happ and other items out of the AL East:

  • Interim GM Tony LaCava says the Blue Jays inked Happ because he fills an urgent need for the club without forcing Toronto to give up a prospect, big leaguer, or draft pick, as John Lott of the National Post writes.  Overall, it sounds like LaCava is not even close to done.  “We’ve had dialogue with any number of (free agents), a wide net we’ve cast, and we still have conversations with various free agents and their agents and also with other teams looking at the trade market as well,” LaCava said. “I wouldn’t rule anything out right now, but certainly we did address some of the bigger needs that we had.”
  • Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette of SiriusXM (audio link) see tons of red flags when it comes to the Blue Jays’ deal with Happ.  Bowden is troubled by the enormity of the contract, which appears to be based off of Happ’s small sample size of excellence.  The ex-GM expected Happ to command $20MM over a two-year deal, but a three-year, $36MM pact was far beyond what he imagined.
  • Wallace Matthews of ESPN.com pondered Bartolo Colon as a fit for the Yankees.  Colon, who will be 43 in May, has averaged 196 innings in each of the last three seasons and his 2015 ERA (4.16) was lower than that of several Yankees starters.  Still, Matthews expects Colon to start feeling his age sooner rather than later and doesn’t feel that he would be a good match for the Bombers.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

  • After catching up on the league’s pre-Thanksgiving Day trades and signings, host Jeff Todd welcomed veteran left-hander Wade LeBlanc on the latest edition of the MLB Trade Rumors podcast.  A new episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
  • MLBTR’s Brad Johnson ran down some of the best fits for free agent Jason Heyward.  In a poll with readers, more than 21% of you said that the Cardinals would wind up inking the outfielder.  The Angels and Yankees also got a significant share of the pie.
  • The MLB deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is coming up on Wednesday and Pedro Alvarez of the Pirates is one of the more notable non-tender candidates out there.  Charlie Wilmoth examined the pros and cons of letting Alvarez go.  The Bucs could also retain Alvarez at his projected $8.1MM salary and try to move him later, but that would be something of a risk for Pittsburgh given their budgetary constraints.
  • The Blue Jays’ five-year, $65MM extension for Jose Bautista back in 2010 was widely panned, but years later, it turned out to be a savvy deal by then-GM Alex Anthopoulos.  Now, it’s time for Toronto to consider another extension for the slugger, as Mark Polishuk writes.  Bautista is still hitting at an elite level as he enters his age-35 season, and thus he doesn’t really have any comparables among past players with at least 6 years of service time who signed multi-year extensions.  It’s hard to peg his value, but Mark envisions a four-year deal in the range of $80-$100MM for Bautista since that’s likely what he would get if he were a free agent this offseason.
  • The Mets are hardly assured a return trip to the World Series in 2016, but they’re as well situated as any for another run, Jeff writes.  Jeff ran down some of the Mets’ options to get back to the top, including scenarios involving their stellar pitching.
  • Recently, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account:@TradeRumorsMLB.  Each day, we’re€™ sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball.  From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend.  So, what are you waiting for?  If you don’€™t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one.  Follow us on Instagram today!
  • In the latest edition of the MLBTR Mailbag, Steve Adams fielded questions on Trevor Plouffe, Brandon Belt, Darren O’Day, and more.
  • The Dodgers’ new-look front office has done a lot of wheeling and dealing already, but there’s more to come as it continues to overhaul the league’s most expensive roster, Jeff writes.  Jeff looked at the many paths the unpredictable Andrew Friedman could take this offseason, including a major shakeup in the outfield.

Latest On Ben Zobrist

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Ben Zobrist is the Mets’ “No. 1 target” this offseason, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links).  The Nationals, Braves, and Giants are also among the leading teams for Zobrist.  The Royals, meanwhile, are not expected to offer the same type of money that those other clubs are.

Rosenthal adds that the veteran’s market is likely to become more defined over the next few days.  Zobrist is seeking a four-year deal and a club’s willingness to go from three to four years will “likely be [the] deciding factor” for the veteran, per Rosenthal.  Recently, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported that there are as many as 20 teams with interest in the versatile switch-hitter and he listed the Cardinals as one of the most interested teams.

Zobrist is highly valued thanks to his incredible versatility coupled with his strong OBP.  However, with his 35th birthday coming up in May, teams are understandably hesitant about giving him a four-year deal.  On the plus side, however, Zobrist will not require the forfeiture of a draft pick since the midseason deal that sent him to KC made him ineligible for a qualifying offer.  Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Zobrist would net a three-year, $51MM deal.

Red Sox Shopping Hanley Ramirez

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There’s “talk in the front office” that new Red Sox baseball chief Dave Dombrowski is trying to move Hanley Ramirez, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.  Cafardo adds that the Mariners, Orioles, and Angels “seem to be the targets” of DD’s campaign to relocate the pricey veteran after he turned in a massively disappointing season in 2015.  It’s not immediately clear if those three clubs have interest, however.

Of course, trading Ramirez is probably easier said than done.  Just last week, five general managers told Cafardo that they wouldn’t take on Ramirez even if the Red Sox picked up the tab on half of his remaining salary.  Ramirez is owed $66MM through 2018 and he has a $22MM vesting option for 2019, so even at a reduced rate, that’s still a hefty price for a player coming off such a rough season on and off the field.

For their part, the Sox say that they’re still committed to Ramirez playing first base for them in 2016.     They’re also hopeful that the soon-to-be 32-year-old can bounce back by dropping some weight.  Ramirez was officially listed at 225 pounds this season but he was apparently tipping the scales at 240 pounds.  All in all, Ramirez’s first year in Boston was dreadful.  Despite hitting 19 home runs, he produced just a .291 OBP, and he struggled horribly with the transition from the infield to left field.  At the time of his signing, Ramirez was coming off of a year in which he posted a .283/.369/.448 slash line with 13 homers for the Dodgers with a .300/.373/.500 slash line for his career.

On a related note, Cafardo hears that the Red Sox have discussed free agent slugger Chris Davis internally.  However, that would only be doable if the Red Sox were able to move Ramirez.  Also, the Red Sox would have to weigh their desire to add Davis’ bat against their need for a frontline starter.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: CarGo, Donaldson, Maybin

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Here’s this week’s look around the baseball blogosphere:

Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.

Tigers In Talks With Jordan Zimmermann

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The Tigers are in talks with free agent starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. Sources tell Morosi and Ken Rosenthal that talks have become serious. The Dodgers and Cubs have also been tied to Zimmermann.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rated Zimmermann as the seventh best free agent. Dierkes anticipates a six-year, $126MM contract for him. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd profiled Zimmermann in more detail earlier this offseason. A reliable righty, Zimmermann’s stock fell slightly this season due to a decline in his strike out and whiff rates from 2014. He also reverted to a league average HR/FB ratio, leading to a higher-than-normal 3.66 ERA.

The 29-year-old right-hander (30 in May), has a career 3.32 ERA with 7.43 K/9 and 1.82 BB/9 in over 1,000 innings. His most recent campaign for the Nationals included similar numbers in 201 innings with the aforementioned regression in home run rate.

Detroit, once possessed of an elite rotation, has lost Max Scherzer and David Price in recent seasons. Additionally, Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez have become unreliable due to injuries and performance decline. A possible addition of Zimmermann could serve to provide stability to the rotation.

Zimmermann rejected a qualifying offer from the Nationals, so any signing team would have to surrender a draft pick. The Tigers select ninth overall – a protected pick – so they would surrender their second pick.

 

 

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