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Archives for November 2015

The Best Suitors For Jason Heyward?

By | November 28, 2015 at 9:12pm CDT

Free agency has progressed slowly this winter. Some of the biggest signings to date have been starting pitchers with late-season breakouts (Rich Hill, J.A. Happ). The markets for several of the flashiest names available have yet to develop, and that’s especially true of Jason Heyward.

The Angels have been mentioned once on these pages as a possible match. Earlier this week, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports said the Angels “aren’t ruling out a pursuit.” So that’s maybe, possibly one public suitor.

Every other Heyward rumor relates to his former Cardinals. While he fits their playing style to a T, Heyward isn’t exactly needed. The St. Louis roster features veterans Matt Holliday and Brandon Moss. Randal Grichuk is an exciting young center fielder with big power and plus defense. Stephen Piscotty made a successful late season debut. Some combination of Peter Bourjos, Jon Jay, and Tommy Pham can fill in the cracks.

Sure, Heyward is an improvement over some of those options, but is his production enough to justify the $200MM investment predicted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes? I don’t think so. The team does have a need in the rotation with Lance Lynn out for the season and top prospect Alex Reyes suspended 50 games for marijuana use. It might be smart to use monetary resources on pitching.

In his free agent profile, Jeff Todd agreed with Dierkes 10-year, $200MM valuation, saying “It’s hard to put Heyward in the same production bracket as Robinson Cano (ten years, $240MM), and you could argue that he’s not as valuable a free agent as Prince Fielder (nine years, $214MM), depending upon how one values defense and baserunning.” Then again, you can also argue that Heyward, 26, offers more future value than Cano or Fielder did at the time of their signings. When they inked their respective deals, Cano was entering his age 31 season while Fielder was set to turn 28.

It used to be that $200MM really limited a player’s market to just a few teams. In today’s cash rich environment, any team can compete for a top free agent. While it wasn’t a free agent signing, the always penurious Marlins actually own the richest contract in major league history (Giancarlo Stanton). Heyward, therefore, is a relatively affordable, young asset. Clearly, his market won’t be constrained to a team that doesn’t need him and another that isn’t “ruling out a pursuit.”

MLB.com’s Dan O’Dowd offers two more alternatives – the Dodgers and Orioles. His justifications? The Dodgers have the cash, and Heyward would add athleticism over incumbent Andre Ethier. With the Orioles, a run at Heyward would likely depend upon the club falling short on re-signing Chris Davis. O’Dowd also likes how Heyward would fit into the Angels lineup.

Let’s explore some other possible fits for Heyward.

The Yankees are always a safe bet to be involved with a player like Heyward. They’re said to be shopping Brett Gardner, possibly to make room for a Heyward pursuit. His left-handed bat and athleticism in the outfield would play awfully well at Yankee Stadium.

New York’s rivals, the Red Sox, are a dark horse candidate. The club is much more fixated on pitching, and they’re currently rich in outfielders. If their pursuit of David Price goes sideways, Boston could try to use some of their outfield depth to acquire star pitching. The would open a role for Heyward.

After attempting to contend in 2015, it’s hard to gauge the White Sox plans. They’ll try again to build around Chris Sale and Jose Abreu, but will they commit more resources to the effort? Across town, the Cubs could benefit from an OBP oriented veteran like Heyward to help support the various young phenoms. They’re supposedly more focused on pitching.

The Phillies could technically afford to sign Heyward. Their only payroll commitment beyond 2017 is a $2MM buyout on Matt Harrison. With their ability to financially bully the other NL East clubs, I expect Philadelphia to rebound quickly from their current nightmare. But this offseason might be one too soon for a forward thinking free agent signing of this magnitude. And it might be difficult to convince Heyward to ink with a rebuilding club.

The Mariners and Giants are the other two clubs I could foresee entering the bidding. Seattle is keen to become more athletic under new GM Jerry Dipoto. After signing Cano and Nelson Cruz in recent offseasons, I’m not sure they could stomach the price tag.

San Francisco is a rich market club that likes to play quietly in free agency. The team has plenty of outfielders, but only Hunter Pence stands out as name brand talent.

So where do you think Heyward will land? Is it one of these teams or somebody completely off the radar?

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Jason Heyward

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Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By Jeff Todd | November 28, 2015 at 7:58pm CDT

The Mets surprised in 2015, taking a weak NL East over a disappointing Nationals club and then streaking all the way to the World Series. Getting back is hardly assured, but the organization is as well situated as any for another run.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • David Wright, 3B: $87MM through 2020
  • Curtis Granderson, OF: $31MM through 2017
  • Juan Lagares, OF: $23MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 club option)
  • Michael Cuddyer, OF: $12.5MM through 2016
  • Jon Niese, SP: $10MM through 2016 (including buyouts of 2017-18 club options)

Arbitration Eligibles (projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Ruben Tejada (4.171) – $2.5MM
  • Lucas Duda (4.137) – $6.8MM
  • Addison Reed (4.002) – $5.7MM
  • Carlos Torres (3.114) – $800K
  • Jenrry Mejia (3.085) – $2.6MM
  • Matt Harvey (3.072) – $4.7MM
  • Jeurys Familia (3.030) – $3.3MM
  • Josh Edgin (3.015) – $600K
  • Non-tender candidates: Tejada, Mejia

Options

  • None

Free Agents

  • Jerry Blevins, Yoenis Cespedes, Tyler Clippard, Bartolo Colon, Kelly Johnson, Eric O’Flaherty, Bobby Parnell, Juan Uribe, Eric Young, Daniel Murphy (rejected QO)

It all starts with the rotation for GM Sandy Alderson and newly-extended skipper Terry Collins. The youth, talent, and recent track record of the arms assembled — high-performing youngsters Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz; veteran Jon Niese; and a recovering Zach Wheeler — suggests that the unit could be special.

If there’s a question about that staff, it’s probably whether last year’s workload will impact next year’s health and effectiveness. Harvey drew most of the headlines in that regard, throwing a career-high 216 innings (including the post-season) in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. But deGrom (+37 1/3 innings) and especially Syndergaard (+65 2/3) went well over their largest prior single-season innings tally. And all the pitchers will be looking to bounce back from a shortened layoff after a deep postseason run.

Sep 26, 2014; New York, NY, USA; New York Mets general manager Sandy Alderson on the field with mascot Mr. Met before a game against the Houston Astros at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

That concern will likely motivate the organization to maintain depth. But the club has already shown at least some willingness to move arms when the need arose: Wheeler was set to be shipped out in the failed Carlos Gomez deal, while Michael Fulmer was one of several young pitchers that ultimately were traded over the summer.

And we’ve yet to see any indication that the organization is lining up for a significant payroll increase. Last year, the Mets topped $100MM on Opening Day for the first time since 2011, and there’s probably about $80MM already committed to 2016. There’s less on the books down the line, but a host of outstanding players will be reaching arbitration eligibility and (hopefully) commanding big raises.

It remains interesting to consider, then, whether any pitching assets could be cashed in to facilitate upgrades elsewhere. The most obvious candidate, perhaps, is Niese, whose salary could be re-allocated. But that would remove a layer of security and could require the signing of a swingman type to provide depth. Bartolo Colon has done enough to command a rotation spot, and he won’t likely be cheap, but he’ll be available for a short-term commitment and a return hasn’t been ruled out.

There are some recently-injured arms to consider, too. Youngster Rafael Montero might also be somewhat expendable and would represent a useful trade chip — if he can show that he’s back to full health. It may be less likely at this point, but Wheeler could still be used to help the Mets fill a hole elsewhere. He has the youth, contract control, and upside to be a major piece for a significant addition, though the risk of his Tommy John recovery holds down his value.

The most intriguing, but least likely, scenario involves the four young pitchers who are slated for the 2016 rotation. They’re all huge assets that are valued as such by the Mets. We’ve heard no indication that a trade is a serious consideration, and it’s impossible to imagine a deal at this point that didn’t involve a high-end, controllable young player who could slot right into the New York lineup at a position of need. Matz is arguably the most susceptible to a trade, if only because he’s less established, but there’s a reasonable argument to be made that the club should cash in Harvey now.

One alternative to trading arms is to double down with an extension. Harvey is the closest to free agency, but the Boras client seems unlikely to forgo free agency (thus increasing the appeal of the trade concept). Syndergaard appears worthy of long-term consideration, but both he and the team may want to let things play out a bit more before committing. That leaves deGrom as the candidate who makes the most sense on paper. He wouldn’t be the first 1+ service-time pitcher to sign an extension, as Ricky Romero, Julio Teheran, and Madison Bumgarner have already set a market. It seems likely that the Mets would need to beat Bumgarner’s record $35MM guarantee for a 1+ arm — and not by a little bit — to get something done. Not only has deGrom been unbelievably good (2.61 ERA), he’s also a solid Super Two candidate (1.139 years of service). While deGrom is relatively old at 27, Bumgarner’s pre-2012 contract is rather out of date given the still-rising cost of pitching.

The biggest pitching needs for the Mets probably come in the bullpen. Jeurys Familia turned into a late-inning monster last year, but he has racked up 155 1/3 innings over the last two regular seasons and threw another 14 2/3 in the postseason. He’d probably be pairing with Jenrry Mejia in the late innings, but that talented right-hander could be headed for a non-tender after twice being busted for PEDs. (Either way, he’ll miss about half of 2016 to serve his suspension.) The club does have another set-up option in Addison Reed, who showed a nice turnaround after coming to New York last summer. He’ll be expensive thanks to his steep arbitration starting point, but indications are that the Mets will tender Reed a contract.

Another late-inning righty might be nice, though Hansel Robles had a very nice rookie campaign and Carlos Torres could bounce back from a rough 2015. But left-handed relief is the bigger need. Sean Gilmartin was a nice surprise as a Rule 5 pick-up, and he’ll take one spot. The resurgent Josh Smoker joins Dario Alvarez as 40-man southpaw options, Josh Edgin could return later in the year from Tommy John surgery, and a reunion with injured hurler Jerry Blevins is said to be a consideration. But there’s every reason for the club to pursue a reliable lefty arm. There are several free agents that could fit the bill, led by Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp.

Any money spent in the pen, though, would likely reduce the free cash that could be used to pursue upgrades elsewhere. While the club doesn’t have any gaping voids in its lineup, there are certainly areas that could use improvement — especially for an organization that is looking to seize a rare window in which it enjoys cheap and outstanding starting pitching.

When the Mets locked up Juan Lagares last winter, they surely expected he’d be an every day option in center. But that’s now in question, leaving the team weighing a left-handed-hitting complement — if not something more. A player like Will Venable could make sense as a fourth outfielder. If the club wants to add someone for more regular duty, it could be well-positioned to seek value (and take on some health risk) in Denard Span or to swing a trade for Ben Revere of the Blue Jays, Ender Inciarte of the D’backs, or Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies. Free agent Gerardo Parra might stand as a middle-ground option who could function more as a traditional fourth outfielder or take near-regular reps, as circumstances dictate.

Of course, it’s also still at least conceivable that the club could look to shake things up further. The clamor to bring back Yoenis Cespedes seems to have died down. (A return never seemed terribly plausible anyway.) But there are other possibilities. The very top of the market is probably out of reach, but if New York is willing to relegate Lagares to a pure fourth outfielder role, then Dexter Fowler could be a match. (Unlike Span, the switch-hitting Fowler — who hits lefties better than righties — doesn’t make for a natural platoon pairing.) And there’s always the possibility of dealing Lagares, who could hold appeal to teams that believe in him and have a need up the middle. Dealing Lagares after an off year is probably not the optimal scenario from a long-term value perspective, but the Mets’ surprising World Series run has changed the calculus somewhat.

Whoever is added could also see some time in the corners, where Curtis Granderson is aging and Michael Conforto is still not fully established despite a very promising partial season debut. Michael Cuddyer is also still a factor in the outfield, of course, though one wonders whether he’ll need to find more of his time at first base, as an interleague DH, and as a bench bat. Lucas Duda will be expected to continue handling the lion’s share of the time at first, but Cuddyer presents a good option to spell him when southpaws take the hill.

The major complication in the corner infield is David Wright. Some have wondered whether he’ll continue to be a viable defensive option at third with his throws visibly hampered by his back issues. It may be too soon to pull the plug on Wright’s days at third, but he could ultimately follow the path of Ryan Zimmerman of moving across the diamond in the midst of a major extension. At the very least, the Mets need to have some contingency plan in place in the event that Wright’s rather serious back issues cause problems once again.

Wright’s situation only adds to the intrigue up the middle. There’s no shortage of options, but there’s little in the way of certainty. Once-maligned, now heroic shortstop Ruben Tejada may be non-tendered after his bad-luck broken leg in the post-season. Trade deadline redemption man Wilmer Flores was moved off that position late in the year and seems to profile better at second or third. Top shortstop prospect Amed Rosario only just turned 20 and still needs to conquer the upper minors, but Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds are close and ready, respectively. Another highly-regarded youngster, Dilson Herrera, didn’t light the world on fire in his first big league stint but is line for another chance. And Eric Campbell and Danny Muno could factor at second (or, if needed, third).

Given that array of options, there are several approaches that the front office could consider. Holding pat, certainly, is one. Signing Ben Zobrist or even bringing back Daniel Murphy would provide an immediate option at second and/or third, but both free agents are expected to command $12MM or more annually over reasonably lengthy terms. Adding a second baseman, moreover, would likely leave the team with some combination of Flores and Reynolds at short while blocking Herrera. The shortstop market also offers possibilities. Ian Desmond is the biggest (and most expensive) name, but veteran stopgaps like Alexei Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins could also make some sense.

It’s also worth wondering whether the Mets could consider trading from its stockpile of middle infielders — especially if a veteran is brought in. We already know that New York is willing to part with Flores, at least in certain circumstances, since he would’ve been the other key piece (with Wheeler) in the nearly-completed Gomez deal. The younger players listed above hold varying degrees of appeal, and one could conceivably be cashed in — possibly in concert with other pieces — to add anything from an established bullpen arm to a center field-capable outfielder.

There’s another area of some depth that could provide Alderson with a trade chip: the catching position. Travis d’Arnaud seems to have cemented himself as the starter heading into 2016 after battling through injury to slash .268/.340/.485 last season. Both d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki drew strong defensive ratings last year, but the latter player — a younger, less experienced option who was pressed into big league duty — didn’t quite prove up to the task. Plawecki, though, still has plenty of promise and trade value, and New York could always rely on Johnny Monell and/or a veteran addition to serve as a reserve option behind d’Arnaud.

Financial constraints still limit the Mets’ maneuverability, and it’s fair for fans of the club to wonder when those restrictions will truly be loosened. (And also to dream on what kind of roster could be compiled this winter with a payroll befitting a New York-based franchise.) But even if the cash outlay will remain modest, there are plenty of creative options available to allow the Mets to capitalize on a good, cheap core and build a roster that can compete for another NL East title — and hope to achieve more.

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2015-16 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals New York Mets

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Blue Jays Notes: Rotation, Bullpen, Price

By | November 28, 2015 at 7:01pm CDT

The Blue Jays have committed about $130MM to their 2016 roster, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. The club has signed three mid-rotation starters to go with three already signed options. GM Tony LaCava will continue to search for pitching, both starters and relievers. Per LaCava, “we do think the offence is one of the best in the game, so we’re not really interested in looking too much at improving that.” Toronto led baseball with 891 runs scored – 127 more runs than the second place Yankees. And the lineup as currently constructed is arguably stronger than before.

Here’s more from north of the border:

  • The recent additions of Marco Estrada, Jesse Chavez, and J.A. Happ ensure the Blue Jays can avoid spending for elite pitchers like David Price and Zack Greinke, per Nicholson-Smith. Last winter, the Royals replaced staff ace James Shields with Chris Young, Edinson Volquez, and Kris Medlen. They also inked unappreciated bullpen stalwarts Ryan Madson and Franklin Morales. Toronto now needs to find some bullpen reinforcements, especially since they dealt away one of their best relievers, Liam Hendriks, to acquire Chavez.
  • Re-signing Price “was always a pipe dream,” writes John Lott of the National Post. Lott notes that many in the fanbase are frustrated with the acquisition of innings-eaters over an ace, but former GM Alex Anthopoulos wouldn’t have found money for Price either. Their three new starters combined for 85 starts last season, a volume that will help the offense continue to carry the team.
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Toronto Blue Jays David Price J.A. Happ James Shields Jesse Chavez Marco Estrada Tony LaCava

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Orioles Notes: Davis, Pitching, Morneau, Hardy

By | November 28, 2015 at 5:58pm CDT

The Orioles were right to extend Matt Wieters a qualifying offer even though the plan backfired, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com. Dubroff’s wish list for the club includes first baseman Chris Davis, a starting pitcher, and a quality outfielder. He doesn’t expect the club’s payroll to exceed $130MM to $140MM. With about $100MM committed to their current roster, the club has just enough money to pay Davis and one other substantial piece.

  • The three-year, $36MM contract signed by J.A. Happ serves to set the market floor for mid-tier starting pitchers, per Dubroff. Possible Orioles targets like Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, John Lackey, and Jeff Samardzija can expect to earn more than Happ. If the club retains the space to re-sign Davis, then they’re out on any of the top market starting pitchers.
  • Dubroff also looks at first basemen past Davis. Several like Chris Parmelee, Kelly Johnson, Travis Ishikawa, Mark Reynolds, and Steve Pearce have already appeared with the Orioles. None would represent a fan-inspiring signing. Should the club fall short on Davis, Dubroff suggests a one-year flyer on Justin Morneau as one alternative.
  • While Baltimore may look to free agency for additions, current players need to step up their game too, writes Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. In particular, J.J. Hardy, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez are listed as three players in need of a rebound. Injuries have ruined Hardy’s last two seasons, especially at the plate. Tillman, once a promising pitching prospect, is coming off his worst season since 2011. Gonzalez is entering his age 32 season after posting career worst numbers across the board.
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Baltimore Orioles Chris Davis Chris Parmelee Chris Tillman J.A. Happ J.J. Hardy Jeff Samardzija John Lackey Justin Morneau Kelly Johnson Mark Reynolds Miguel Gonzalez Scott Kazmir Steve Pearce Travis Ishikawa Yovani Gallardo

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Quick Hits: Free Agents, Blue Jays, Hendriks

By charliewilmoth | November 28, 2015 at 4:32pm CDT

This year’s offseason has moved much more slowly than last year’s did, possibly suggesting that teams are becoming more cautious in free agency, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman suggests. There are other possible explanations, he notes, including that the strong free agent market has teams concerned about jumping to sign one free agent only to find a similar player willing to sign for less at a later date. Another possibility is that many teams’ new presidents of baseball operations are pulling back on the reins a bit. But there’s also the fact that many deals that were consummated by this point last year — including big contracts for Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Michael Cuddyer and Adam LaRoche — now look like potential busts. Here are more quick notes from around the game.

  • After their signing of J.A. Happ (as well as their re-signing of Marco Estrada and trade for Jesse Chavez), the Blue Jays will continue pursuing starting pitching, interim GM Tony LaCava says, according to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter links). LaCava declined to comment on free agent starter David Price.
  • Former Blue Jay Liam Hendriks, who headed to the Athletics for Chavez, says he anticipates a bigger role in Oakland, Jeff Simmons of Sportsnet notes. “I think it’ll be a good stepping stone to become a set-up, closer type and as a reliever that’s where you want to be,” Hendriks said last week on Sportsnet 590 The Fan. “With (Roberto) Osuna, (Aaron) Sanchez and (Brett) Cecil it would’ve been tough to get there with Toronto because they got three guys that can do both of those roles.” Hendriks, incidentally, says better health was one reason he improved in Toronto, blossoming from the struggling starter he was in Minnesota to a top-notch reliever. (He also credits Jays catchers Russell Martin and Dioner Navarro.)  “I was never unhealthy per se. But I ate a bit cleaner and stopped drinking,” he says. “I never drank too much to begin with but I stopped completely… I did a lot my lower-body and shoulders work in the gym. Everything played a part.”
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Oakland Athletics Toronto Blue Jays Liam Hendriks Pablo Sandoval

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Twins’ Deal For Byung-Ho Park Likely To Be Completed Soon

By Steve Adams | November 28, 2015 at 4:24pm CDT

NOVEMBER 28, 4:24pm: The Twins expect Park’s deal to be completed “soon,” a source tells Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. Park and the Twins have until December 8 to complete their deal, but Miller’s source believes it will be complete well in advance of that deadline.

9:23am: Park will head to Minneapolis on Sunday, with a brief stop in Chicago, Naver Sports reports (link in Korean; via Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press). In Minnesota, Park will meet with the Twins and take a physical. The Twins could potentially then announce Park’s signing next week. As Berardino notes, that suggests that, if Park and the Twins haven’t reached an agreement already, they appear to at least be fairly close.

NOVEMBER 9: In what has to be considered a surprise, the Twins were the team to submit the $12.85MM winning bid on Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park, reports Daniel Kim of KBS Sports in Korea (Twitter link). Minnesota will now have 30 days to negotiate a contract with Park and his agent, Octagon’s Alan Nero. If a contract cannot be reached, the Twins would be refunded the $12.85MM fee, and Park would return to Korea’s Nexen Heroes for the 2016 season.

Park, 29, is one of the top hitters in all of KBO, having slugged 105 homers over the past two seasons. He hit 53 homers in 2015 to go along with a batting line of .343/.436/.714, though it should be noted that the Korea Baseball Organization is a notoriously hitter-friendly environment. That didn’t stop Park’s former Heroes teammate, Jung Ho Kang, from posting strong numbers in his jump from KBO to MLB, however. Kang is the lone point of reference in terms of position players jumping from Korea to the Majors, and he went from a .356/.459/.739 triple-slash in Korea to an impressive .287/.355/.461 in his Major League debut (while playing in Pittsburgh, where PNC Park is a disadvantageous environment for right-handed power).

Park isn’t a perfect fit on the Twins’ roster, as Minnesota currently has Joe Mauer at first base and Trevor Plouffe at third base, which has relegated the highly impressive Miguel Sano (a third baseman in his own right) to designated hitter for much of his young career. However, Sano has recently worked out in left field, and there’s always the possibility that the Twins could trade Plouffe, whose salary is rising through arbitration and who has just two years of club control remaining before he hits free agency. That would leave third base open for Sano, freeing the Twins to rotate Park and Mauer (who has a full no-trade clause) between DH and first base.

Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote over the weekend that Park was unimpressive when facing Cuban pitching in the Premier 12 tournament this weekend despite the fact that he wasn’t facing plus stuff. That was a sample of just nine plate appearances, though the 1-for-7 result (plus a walk and a HBP) wasn’t as concerning for Badler as the fact that Park swung and missed eight times. Badler does praise Park’s defense at first base, suggesting that he looks capable of providing good defense there. Strikeouts figure to be a part of Park’s game if and when he jumps to the Majors, as he punched out in about a quarter of his plate appearances over the past two seasons in Korea.

Nonetheless, there are plenty of scouts who expect Park’s power to carry over to the Major Leagues. Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald tweets that he spoke to an evaluator who rated Park’s power an 80 (on the 20-80 scouting scale), though he did note that the right-handed hitter might struggle with inside fastballs (Twitter link). I recently spoke to a non-Twins scout that said there’s “no doubt” the power will play and called Park surprisingly athletic, suggesting that Park could deliver something along the lines of Mitch Moreland’s 2015 production in the Majors. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also tweets that he spoke to one team that pursued Park due to encouraging marks in his exit velocity and home run distances, which led the club to believe he could succeed in the Majors. MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince spoke to a scout that saw Park in Korea and graded his power a 70 and his defense at first base a 55 (Twitter link).

If Park ultimately lands with the Twins, he’ll add to a growing core of controllable position players. Sano burst onto the scene in 2015, hitting .269/.385/.530 with 18 homers in just 335 plate appearances. Minnesota no doubt would like to pencil Park and Sano into the middle of its lineup as a pair of formidable right-handed sluggers to anchor the lineup for years to come. That pairing would be complemented by Brian Dozier, who looks to be an annual source of 20+ homers at second base as well as the emergent Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario in the outfield. None of that includes top prospect Byron Buxton, who is of course widely believed to be the center fielder of the future in Minneapolis.

The larger question for the Twins this offseason will be whether or not they can sufficiently upgrade their starting rotation and bullpen in the same manner they’ve upgraded the lineup in recent years. While catching and shortstop are potential areas for upgrade this winter, the Twins will also certainly keep their eyes out for pitching upgrades. Their surprise win for Park’s negotiation rights figure to be just the first step in a heavily active offseason.

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Minnesota Twins Newsstand Transactions Byung-ho Park

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Mike Hessman Retires

By charliewilmoth | November 28, 2015 at 3:04pm CDT

Corner infielder Mike Hessman has announced his retirement, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America notes. Hessman initially tweeted that he was retiring to become a coach, although that tweet has since been deleted.

Hessman’s retirement is a move that is minor by definition but more noteworthy than that term suggests — among fans of minor league baseball, Hessman’s career will be remembered as legendary. No minor league slugger, in fact, has been more prolific — this season, the 37-year-old Hessman topped Buzz Arlett’s all-time record with his 433rd career minor league homer.

The Braves selected Hessman in the 15th all the way back in 1996 — a draft in which they also took Jason Marquis, Mark DeRosa and Marcus Giles, which gives a sense of just how long Hessman was in the minors. He reached Triple-A six years later and made his big-league debut in 2003.

Hessman ultimately played parts of five big-league seasons with the Braves, Tigers and Mets, although he never collected even 100 plate appearances in a single year. Instead, he bounced from one organization to the next, hitting one home run after another for various Triple-A teams and playing in over 2,000 minor league games. The team with which he’ll be most strongly connected is the Toledo Mud Hens, for whom he played from 2005-2009 and 2014-2015. Hessman hit 23 or more homers in his first six seasons in Toledo before finishing with 16 last season. Overall, he hit 20 or more minor-league homers 13 times in his career. He also helped the US baseball team to a bronze medal in the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, and in 2009 he attracted attention by playing all nine positions in a single game for the Mud Hens.

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Detroit Tigers Transactions Mike Hessman Retirement

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Non-Tender Candidate: Pedro Alvarez

By charliewilmoth | November 28, 2015 at 2:03pm CDT

MLB’s deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is coming up on Wednesday, and one of the more interesting cases is that of Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez, who seems at least somewhat unlikely to return to the Bucs next season. MLBTR projects that Alvarez would make $8.1MM through the arbitration process in 2016 (after which he would become eligible for free agency). That’s a figure that the Pirates could be reluctant to pay, and there are any number of signals that both Alvarez and the Bucs appear ready to move on from one another.

USATSI_8768590_154513410_lowresAlready this offseason, reporters have indicated that the Pirates are listening to trade offers for Alvarez. Last week, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported that Alvarez himself would prefer to be dealt. And the Bucs’ signing of fellow left-handed first baseman Jake Goebbert to a big-league deal last week suggests that the organization is planning for the possibility that Alvarez won’t be back. Goebbert doesn’t look like a long-term answer at first base, and he has options remaining, so the Bucs could simply mostly want him for minor-league depth. But they could also platoon him with righty Michael Morse at first until the Super Two threshold passes, at which point they could promote top prospect Josh Bell.

It seems at least somewhat likely, then, that Alvarez will head to a new team this winter. The question is how he’ll do it. The Pirates could still try to trade him before next week’s deadline, but it’s questionable whether they’ll be able to find a suitor, given that other teams know the deadline will force the Bucs’ hand. They could tender Alvarez and plan to trade him later, but that would be somewhat of a risk, particularly given that they don’t generally have huge payrolls and they have many key players whose salaries are increasing (including Neil Walker and Mark Melancon through arbitration and Andrew McCutchen, Josh Harrison and Starling Marte through their long-term deals). Or they could non-tender him.

Even leaving aside the looming deadline, assessing Alvarez’s trade value is difficult. What does appear fairly clear is that he should have little value to any team in the National League. Via FanGraphs, Alvarez ranked as the third-worst defensive player in the Majors last year, ahead of only Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez. The Bucs moved Alvarez to first in 2015 after he suffered inexplicable throwing issues at third base in 2014, but the move across the diamond did him few favors, as he struggled badly with the fundamentals at his new position and made 23 errors. Essentially, unless he dramatically improve at one of the two defensive positions with the help of a new team’s coaching staff, he’s close to unplayable at either position.

That would make Alvarez a better fit for the American League, where he can DH. His 27 home runs in 2015 have to appear tempting to opposing clubs, particularly ones with ballparks more favorable to home-run power than PNC Park. Unfortunately, Alvarez has offensive shortcomings as well — he’s struck out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances in every year he’s been in the league, and he therefore struggles to post good batting averages.

Still, absent context, Alvarez’s .243/.318/.469 line in 2015 (or the .243/.320/.454 Steamer projects for him next season) would make him a decent DH, particularly given that he might hit somewhat better in certain ballparks. AL designated hitters batted .264/.334/.454 in 2015, and Alvarez would appear to fit in fairly well. As I pointed out in September at Bucs Dugout, however, using Alvarez as a full-time DH would limit the flexibility many teams like to have with that lineup spot. Many full-time DHs, like David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez and Kendrys Morales, are significantly better hitters than Alvarez, and many teams without that kind of strong DH option divide plate appearances at that position among several players, many of whom also play in the field. Also, some of the teams who fared worst at DH in 2015, like the Tigers and Athletics, did so because of the performances of veterans who are signed to long-term deals and who seem likely to return to their positions next season.

This isn’t to say that there won’t, or shouldn’t, be interest in Alvarez. The Orioles, who struggled at DH last year and who play in a ballpark friendly to left-handed home run hitters, stand out as one potential fit. But trading Alvarez might be somewhat tricky for the Pirates, particularly given that, if they tender him a contract, he won’t be particularly cheap. To be worth his likely $8.1MM salary, he’ll have to produce something like one win above replacement. In the past two seasons combined, he’s been worth less than one win, via both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. So trading for Alvarez and taking on his salary would require a leap of faith — that his incredible power can somehow overwhelm his shortcomings, or (if his new team uses him in the field with any regularity) that his defense can improve.

It will be interesting, then, to see if the Pirates can pull off a trade involving Alvarez, and if not, what they do with him. Non-tendering him and spending elsewhere would be defensible, particularly with Bell waiting in the wings. Non-tendering Alvarez would also free the Bucs to spend on some other left-handed first base option for next season. The Pirates could also tender Alvarez, use him in a platoon with Morse, hope he recoups some value with a couple decent months in the field, and then either trade him or keep him, depending on the team’s position in the standings and how Bell is doing at Triple-A Indianapolis. We’re only days from the deadline to tender contracts, and it’s not at all clear which direction the Pirates will go.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals Non-Tender Candidates Pittsburgh Pirates Pedro Alvarez

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NL Notes: Braves, Zimmermann, Moroff

By charliewilmoth | November 28, 2015 at 12:11pm CDT

Former GM Jim Duquette’s list for MLB.com of five trades that should happen includes two deals involving the Braves. Duquette suggests the Braves deal Freeman to the Cardinals for Matt Adams, Kolten Wong and starting pitcher Tim Cooney — an interesting suggestion, given the Cards’ need for a power bat, although, Wong’s departure would create a new hole at second base. (The Braves, of course, emphatically deny that they will trade Freeman, as Duquette notes.) Duquette also suggests the Braves deal Shelby Miller to the Cubs for prospects Billy McKinney and Willson Contreras. Miller would provide the Cubs with a mid-rotation pitcher who might be an alternative to a free-agent option like Jeff Samardzija, and McKinney and Contreras would give the Braves a couple good position-player prospects to complement their collection of young pitchers. Of course, these are both just ideas, and not actual trade rumors, but they’re fun. Here’s more from the National League.

  • Former Nationals starting pitcher and free agent Jordan Zimmermann isn’t quite on a tier with David Price and Zack Greinke, but there’s plenty to recommend him, beginning with his consistency, as MLB.com’s Paul Casella writes. Zimmermann, Casella points out, is the only MLB starter who’s made at least 32 starts and posted ERAs below 3.70 in all of the past four seasons. He’s also one of the best starters in baseball at limiting walks.
  • Second baseman Max Moroff was little more than a sleeper prospect before the season, but after an outstanding 2015, he’s earned a place on the Pirates’ 40-man roster, Adam Berry of MLB.com writes. The Bucs gave Moroff a $300K bonus as a late-round pick in 2012 and moved him aggressively through the system, but it wasn’t until this year at Double-A Altoona that his patient approach at the plate started to pay dividends. Moroff hit .293 and walked 70 times en route to a .374 OBP. That earned him the Pirates’ Minor League Player of the Year award, and forced the Bucs to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. “We felt that he was one of those guys that, if selected [in the Rule 5], could do enough things to help a Major League team win that he might end up staying with another organization,” says GM Neal Huntington.
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Pittsburgh Pirates Jordan Zimmermann

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Central Notes: Cardinals, Samardzija, Cubs, Indians

By charliewilmoth | November 28, 2015 at 10:55am CDT

Lance Lynn’s recent Tommy John surgery has the Cardinals hunting for starting pitching. While Lynn’s injury is unfortunate, the Cardinals’ need for pitching couldn’t be better timed, given the strong market for starters, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out. This winter’s market has everything: superstars like David Price and Zack Greinke, interesting high-upside pitchers like Jeff Samardzija and Kenta Maeda, reliable mid-rotation types like Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen, and potential post-Christmas signees like Yovani Gallardo and Doug Fister. Here’s more from the Central divisions.

  • The Cubs are interested in bringing back Samardzija, but the key to negotiations will be how much they value him compared to their other needs, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes. They need a top starter more than they need Samardzija, says Sullivan, and at some point, they’ll also need to have money left over to extend Jake Arrieta.
  • The Indians have a bit of depth that could help them withstand the departure of one of their young pitchers, and they could also look outside the organization for reinforcements if they make a trade. But they aren’t looking to deal Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar or Trevor Bauer unless they get obvious impact talent in return, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes.
  • The Indians have been in touch with free agent Shane Victorino, and whether they sign him or not, Victorino is the type of outfielder the team seems likely to acquire, writes Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. The Indians could probably sign Victorino to a one-year deal — a reasonable proposition for them, since they need outfield help in 2016 but have a number of potentially helpful outfielders in the minors (including Tyler Naquin and James Ramsey in the short term and Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer in the longer term) who could help in future seasons.
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Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians St. Louis Cardinals Carlos Carrasco Corey Kluber Danny Salazar Jake Arrieta Jeff Samardzija Shane Victorino Trevor Bauer

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