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Poll: Who Will Be The Last Of These Top-10 Free Agents To Sign?

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As we approach the New Year, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents remain on the board.  Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Ian Desmond all have widespread interest, of course, but they each seem intent on waiting for the right offer to materialize.  Beyond that, other notables such as Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir, and Ian Kennedy are still without a ball club.

Last week, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk asked readers to predict who will be the first to come off of the board in each group.  In the “A” squad, nearly 39% of you predicted that Gordon would be the first to sign.  However, this poll was conducted before Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported that the incumbent Royals have been told by the outfielder’s camp that they have “no chance” to re-sign their franchise cornerstone as things currently stand.  Gordon’s camp is seeking a contract that will pay him upwards of $20MM per season, and Kansas City has reportedly only offered $12-$13MM per year over four years.

In the next group of free agents, MLBTR readers ID’d Kazmir as the player most likely to sign first.  Kazmir, unlike other players in that tier, does not have a qualifying offer attached.  Of the players in that poll, less than 4% said that Kennedy would be the next to sign with a team.  Things have been oddly quiet for Kennedy who decided to reject the qualifying offer from the Padres back in November.  The Marlins are known to have interest in him, but he is likely too expensive for them, and we haven’t heard much in the way of specific teams talking with his camp.  Maeda took nearly 24% of the vote – an indication that roughly one-quarter of MLBTR readers expect the free agent market to progress pretty slowly since the deadline for him to sign is on January 8th at 5pm ET/4pm CT.

When looking at the ten best free agents left, who do you think will be the last to land with a team?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here) 

This Date In Transactions History: Mo Vaughn

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On this date in 2001, the Mets acquired first baseman Mo Vaughn from the Angels in exchange for right-hander Kevin Appier.  Vaughn had missed the entire 2001 season with the Angels due to a ruptured tendon in his left arm, but General Manager Steve Phillips & Co. opted to roll the dice on the slugger anyway.  The trade was meant to bring some power to the Mets’ lineup, but Vaughn’s injuries wound up making the deal one of the worst moves of Phillips’ tenure in New York.

The media got wind of the trade almost a week prior to its completion when sources told Tyler Kepner of the New York Times that Phillips, manager Bobby Valentine, and Assistant General Manager Omar Minaya traveled up to Massachusetts to watch Vaughn work out, which was unusual given that Vaughn was under contract with Anaheim.  ”I understand it was very positive.  I heard that they really liked what they saw,” said one source.  That would presumably include Vaughn’s physical shape, despite the slugger’s reported increase from 245 pounds to 275 pounds in his first two seasons with the Halos.

Less than a week later, the Mets agreed to take on Vaughn and the roughly $50MM owed to him over the next three seasons.  As part of the deal, the Mets got to defer some of the money paid to the first baseman while the Angels covered the $8MM he was still owed as part of his signing bonus.  Meanwhile, they would also part with Appier, who was coming off of an impressive season in his first (and only) campaign in blue and orange.  The right-hander posted a 3.57 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9, his best numbers since his time in Kansas City.

Vaughn wasn’t able to mash the ball as well as he had in years past by the time he got to Shea, but the veteran still managed to hit .259/.349/.456 with 26 homers in 139 games in 2002.  The 2003 season was an entirely different story, however, as a knee injury in early May would bring his career to a close.  Meanwhile, Appier pitched to a 3.92 ERA with 6.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 32 starts for the Halos in 2002, helping to propel the Halos to their first World Series title.  The Angels wound up releasing Appier the following year as he struggled with a flexor tendon injury, but one has to imagine that they were pretty happy to get out from under the money owed to Vaughn.

This post was originally published in 2012.

Documentary Links Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman, Taylor Teagarden To PED Claims

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3:00pm: The Nationals issued a statement with regards to Zimmerman’s involvement in the documentary:

“Ryan Zimmerman has been an integral member of the Washington Nationals family for the past 11 years.  During that time, he has been the model for all that we ask our players to be – contributing to his team, to his community, and to the game of baseball.

We do not find Al Jazeera’s report – which has already been recanted by their source – to be credible.  

Ryan has unequivocally stated that these allegations are false.  The Lerner family and our organization fully support him.  We are confident Major League’s Baseball’s investigation will show that the allegations levied in the report are unfounded.  

We fully cooperate with MLB, and refer all questions to them at this time.” 

Major League Baseball also issued a statement (via Twitter links from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports)

“[MLB] was not made aware of the allegations until yesterday and was provided no information other than what has been reported,” the statement read, adding that the league intends to “conduct a thorough investigation.”

10:30am: Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman and Taylor Teagarden are among the athletes named as allegedly having received banned PEDs in an undercover news documentary from Al Jazeera television (YouTube link).

MLB: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Al Jazeera conducted a month long investigative report on PEDs in global sports, sending British hurdler Liam Collins undercover.  The PED claims come from Collins’ undercover conversations with a former pharmacy intern named Charlie Sly, who says that he previously worked at an Indiana-based anti-aging clinic called the Guyer Institute.  Sly told Collins that he sold Howard and Zimmerman a hormone supplement known as Delta-2, which is both specifically designated to evade drug tests and included on Major League Baseball’s list of banned substances.  Teagarden, meanwhile, is shown in an undercover video discussing how he took PEDs in the previous season.

MLBTR has a statement from William Burck of Quinn Emanuel, the attorney for both Howard and Zimmerman:

“It’s inexcusable and irresponsible that Al Jazeera would provide a platform and broadcast outright lies about Mr. Howard and Mr. Zimmerman. The extraordinarily reckless claims made against our clients in this report are completely false and rely on a source who has already recanted his claims.  We will go to court to hold Al Jazeera and other responsible parties accountable for smearing our clients’ good names.”

In one of his conversations with Al Jazeera’s undercover athlete, Sly went into some detail about the drug regimen that he has laid out for Howard.  Sly specifically claims that Howard has taken Delta-2 (“D2”) and says that Howard felt that he had “more explosiveness” as a result.

“He is somebody that you cannot overwhelm with stuff,” Sly told Collins.  “You just make sure you have like everything in bags.  He knows to take stuff twice a day.  Usually I just have him like teach it back to me.”

Sly also opened up about his working relationship with Zimmerman, a player whom Sly claims to have known for “probably six years.”  “I worked with him in the offseason.  That’s how I get him to change some stuff,” Sly said.  Sly went on to answer in the affirmative when asked if Zimmerman has used D2 and also indicated that he has noticed an increase in power as a result.

Teagarden, meanwhile, actually crosses paths with Collins while the two are waiting in the lobby of Sly’s apartment building.  When the three men are in Sly’s apartment, Teagarden gets rather specific about his use of Delta-2.

“I used it last year, I was very..I was scared to be honest with you,” Teagarden said.  “I took it for like two weeks and I had a test four weeks after my last administration of it.  Nothing happened…And I was also taking peptides too but they were all urine tests, no blood tests…Once a year, maybe twice at most.”

Howard and Zimmerman denied using the drug when asked to comment by Al-Jazeera, and several NFL players named in the report (including such notables as Peyton Manning, James Harrison and Mike Neal) also denied using PEDs, as highlighted by our sister NFL site, Pro Football Rumors.  Sly himself told Al-Jazeera that his prior statements (or, at least, the characterization of them) were “absolutely false and incorrect.”  Sly added that the recordings were made “without [his] knowledge or consent.”  In comments made to ESPN, Sly says he was a student intern at the Guyer Institute in 2013, rather than 2011 as alleged by Al Jazeera.  Sly told ESPN he was “trying to pull one over on Collins to see if he had any idea of what he was talking about,” dropping names of athletes who were not actually clients.

None of the three baseball players have ever been suspended for PED use or failed any known drug tests.  It is yet unknown how MLB or the NFL may respond to this documentary, if at all, though if the allegations are proven, Howard, Zimmerman and Teagarden would presumably be subject to the 80-game suspension given to the first-time offenders of MLB’s drug policy.

Tim Dierkes and Zach Links contributed to this post.  Travis Waldron and Ryan Grim of the Huffington Post first detailed some of the documentary’s major news points after watching an advance copy.  Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Blue Jays, Giants, A-Rod

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Here’s this week’s look at the baseball blogosphere:

Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.

Quick Hits: Ruth, Davis, Nationals, Yankees

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It was on this day in 1919 that probably the single most influential trade in baseball history was settled, as Red Sox owner Harry Frazee agreed to sell Babe Ruth to the Yankees for a price of $100K (plus a $350K loan from Yankees owner Jacob Ruppert that included Fenway Park’s mortgage put up as collateral).  The trade was officially announced a week later once Ruth had agreed to a new contract.  The rest, as they say, was history.  Ruth’s presence began the Yankees’ historic dominance and “cursed” the Red Sox to a World Series drought that lasted until 2004.

Here’s more from around baseball…

  • The latest subscription-only column from ESPN’s Buster Olney lists the top roster holes left on contending teams, with the Dodgers’ rotation leading the way followed by the Orioles’ need for a power hitter.  Since the O’s pulled their $150MM offer to Chris Davis, some within the organization are asking if that offer should be put back onto the table if Davis revisits talks, given that no other teams are seemingly jumping in to pay Davis $150MM or more.
  • Also from Olney’s column, he wonders if signing Daniel Murphy could make the Nationals more likely to sign another qualifying offer free agent.  The Nats surrendered their first-rounder to sign Murphy, so they’d only be giving up a second-rounder for another QO player.  I’d add that the Nats’ decision could be made even easier by the fact that they at least one and probably two bonus sandwich round picks from their own QO free agents (Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond).  Olney suggests that Dexter Fowler could be the best fit for Washington among the remaining qualifying offer free agents, with Wei-Yin Chen and Ian Kennedy also possibilities as Scott Boras clients.
  • The Phillies serve as a cautionary tale to the Yankees, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes, as a team that fell apart due to a thin farm system and little production from veterans on big contracts.  With New York already committing millions to aging veterans, the club is trying to manage the tricky task of getting younger while still remaining a contender, even if that means eschewing adding another big contract in free agency this winter.

Central Notes: Warren, Francona, Tigers, Salty

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Adam Warren found out about his trade to the Cubs in a somewhat unusual fashion, as he explained in an interview with MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (hat tip to CBS Sports’ Mike Axisa).  Warren and his wife were on vacation in St. Lucia and “our biggest rule when we go out of the country is to turn your phone off, put them into the safe in the room, and basically get away from technology.”  This meant that the Warrens discovered that the right-hander had been dealt to Chicago as part of the Starlin Castro trade only by watching a TV screen’s sports ticker while at dinner.  Here’s some more from around the Central divisions…

  • Indians manager Terry Francona touched on such topics as his relationship with the front office, the Tribe’s reluctance to trade its starting pitching, and the club’s winter moves in a wide-ranging interview with Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  Francona stressed the importance of pitching depth, saying he’d rather “take his chances” with having one less bat in the lineup than giving up a rotation member.  He and the front office “were all in agreement that we were not going to trade one of our (top) starters unless we were overwhelmed with an offer.”
  • Francona said Rajai Davis was “the first name out of my mouth” in postseason discussions about what outfielders the Indians could sign within their price range.  He noted that Davis “has always been such a thorn when we’ve played against him” as a member of the Tigers.  Francona also praised new first baseman Mike Napoli’s power and clubhouse presence, saying that after Cleveland signed Napoli, his “phone about blew up” with texts “from guys who had played with Mike and really liked him.”
  • The Tigers have long been plagued with bullpen issues, yet Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes that the club has quickly and seemingly solidly addressed its relief needs before the end of 2015 in adding Francisco Rodriguez, Justin Wilson and Mark Lowe.  “I can’t say I’m surprised, but I will tell you that I didn’t know if we were ever really going to be able to do the whole thing,” GM Al Avila said. “But it was a methodically laid out plan and you don’t know if you’re going to be able to do it, you don’t know if you’re going to have some bumps along the road, you don’t know if it’s going to take longer or shorter.”
  • In another piece from Fenech, Jarrod Saltalamacchia said he decided to join the Tigers due to their commitment to winning.  Though several other teams were interesting in signing the catcher, it was “an easy decision” for Saltalamacchia since “it’s an organization that every year is trying to compete for the World Series.”
  • In other Central division news from earlier today, the Cardinals’ deal with Mike Leake became official, and CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported on the five-year, $80MM contract’s rather unusual annual salary breakdown.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Of These Top-10 Free Agents To Sign?

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In our last MLBTR poll, over 38.6% of MLBTR readers surveyed felt that Alex Gordon would be the next to sign out of a group consisting of the top five players left on MLBTR’s list of this offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents.  Fast-forward a week and, unsurprisingly, all five players (Gordon, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes and Ian Desmond) are all still on the board.

Earlier today, Charlie Wilmoth examined the situations surrounding not just those five, but also the next five remaining from MLBTR’s original list — Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir and Ian Kennedy.  These five may not carry the high price tags of the top-rated quintet, so it’s possible any of them could come off the board before Gordon and company.  (Then again, it wouldn’t shock me if Chen or Maeda both sign for more than Desmond given how badly Desmond struggled in 2015.  In fact, with the other top free agent pitchers all signed, it’s possible Chen or Maeda could even best Gordon’s eventual contract.)

Also, given the intertwined free agent market, some of the big names may need to be signed before attention can be turned to the next five names.  As Charlie noted, for instance, Fowler’s market may not come into focus until the top-tier outfielders find new homes.  Conversely, Fowler offers a different skillset than Upton, Cespedes or Gordon, so it’s also possible he could be signed before any of them.

The qualifying offer also looms large in this tier of free agents.  Chen, Fowler and Kennedy all rejected the QO, so any new team that signs them will have to give up a draft pick as compensation.  Maeda, obviously, doesn’t have the qualifying offer to worry about coming from Japan, though he has two more obstacles — the extra $20MM posting fee his MLB team will have to pay to the Hiroshima Carp, and the simple fact that Maeda is the most unknown quantity in Major League play.  Kazmir doesn’t have a qualifying offer attached, yet that actually may be what’s holding up his signing since multiple teams are showing interest; Kazmir reportedly has several three-year offers in hand but he may be holding out for a team that gives him that guaranteed fourth year.

With these factors in mind, which of the “next five” do you think will be the first to sign a contract?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here) 

Managers And GMs On Expiring Contracts

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If a team is intent on shaking up its front office or dugout, contract length is usually not a great concern.  For example, when the Mariners decided to part ways with GM Jack Zduriencik last summer, the club didn’t hesitate even though Zduriencik signed a multi-year extension in August 2014.  Likewise, former manager Lloyd McClendon’s guaranteed contact through 2016 didn’t stop new GM Jerry Dipoto from making a change after the season.

This being said, everyone obviously wants more security than less when going into a season.  It’s usually rather unusual for a team to let its manager or top baseball executive be a “lame duck” for optics purposes if nothing else, though there are some extenuating circumstances.  Some executives or managers are so entrenched that they’ve already been given unwritten assurances that they’ll eventually receive new deals, or some skippers prefer to work on one-year deals (i.e. Walt Weiss’ original contract with the Rockies) since they’re unsure as to how long they wish to remain on the job.

Here’s the rundown of managers and GMs who could be facing a bit of extra pressure in 2016 as they’re entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts.  (Much thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for many of these details.)  While we’re focusing mostly on GMs, there’s also one very prominent example on this list of a president of baseball operations entering a contract year.  One caveat: some teams don’t make front office contract details public, so it’s possible that some of these executives may have already quietly agreed to extensions.

White Sox: Team owner Jerry Reinsdorf is a big fan of Ventura, so the skipper’s contract status (he’s entering the last season of a two-year extension) may not be a big factor.  Of larger import, of course, could be Chicago’s performance given how the Sox underachieved in 2015.  Another rough season could also lead to some speculation about the status of GM Rick Hahn; his contract terms aren’t known, though he was promoted to his current role after the 2012 season.

Twins: The details of Terry Ryan’s contract aren’t known, though given his long history in Minnesota and the Twins’ return to winning baseball last year, it’s hard to imagine Ryan leaving as GM unless he chooses to do so himself.

Tigers: Brad Ausmus was reportedly almost fired last season before former GM Dave Dombrowski fought to keep the manager.  Reports then emerged in September that the club was planning to let Ausmus go at season’s end, though when ownership let new GM Al Avila make the decision, Avila opted to keep Ausmus in place.  Avila’s support notwithstanding, it still seems like Ausmus is on thin ice given how badly owner Mike Ilitch wants to win; even a slow start next season could raise new rumors about a managerial change.  Ausmus is signed through 2016 and Detroit has a club option on his services for 2017.

Royals: GM Dayton Moore and manager Ned Yost are both entering the last year of their contracts, so they clearly have a lot of negotiating power in the wake of Kansas City’s World Series championship.  Yost, however, signed just a one-year extension last winter and said at the time that he only wanted to manage two or three more seasons.  If he still feels this way, Yost may sign another one-year extension at most or he could just ride his current deal out before retiring.  Yost and Moore both expressed no doubts that ownership would work out extensions with both men, so it’s likely just a matter of time before those new deals are finalized.

Rockies: Walt Weiss is entering the last season of the three-year extension he signed after the 2013 season and he’s yet to top even the 74-win plateau as Colorado’s manager, posting an overall 208-278 record.  It’s rather hard to blame Weiss, however, given how the Rockies have suffered through injuries, consistently poor pitching and a change in front office mentality (as evidenced by the hiring of GM Jeff Bridich and the trade of Troy Tulowitzki) since he became manager.  As such, it’s hard to judge exactly how much or little job security Weiss has, though if the Rockies struggle again in 2016, Bridich could quite possibly get the green light to hire his own manager.

Reds: Bryan Price is entering the final year of his original three-year contract, and there was some question as to whether he’d return for that third year in the wake of a tough season on and off for the field for the skipper.  With Cincinnati going into a rebuild, however, the club’s expectations for its manager may have changed; rather than wins and losses, Price may now be judged on how he handles the development of an overall younger roster.

Phillies: The team was impressed enough by Pete Mackanin as an interim manager that they gave him the full-time job in September, signing him through 2016 with a club option for 2017.  It’s fair to say that Mackanin is quite safe as he leads the rebuilding young Phillies.

Nationals: After Washington grossly underachieved from their preseason favorite status, GM Mike Rizzo may just have a “tenuous” grip on his job.  Rizzo is under contract through 2016 and the Nats have a club option on him for 2017, and it’s quite possible Rizzo will need a major rebound season for his team in order to keep his job.

Diamondbacks: Chip Hale signed a two-year contract with a club option for 2017, and his first season as manager saw the D’Backs make a 15-win improvement from 2014.  It was a good first step in leading the Snakes back to respectability, but expectations are now sky-high following Arizona’s acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller.  Barring a disaster season, however, I’d think Hale’s job is fairly safe.  It also wouldn’t surprise me if the D’Backs extended Hale this winter, at least in the form of guaranteeing that club option year.

Cubs: Theo Epstein’s contract as Chicago’s president of baseball operations is up after this season.  While GM Jed Hoyer’s contractual status isn’t public, given that he was hired just a week after Epstein in October 2011, it’s safe to assume that his deal is probably also set to expire at the same time as his boss and longtime co-worker.  Epstein didn’t sound too concerned about his contract status when asked about it in October, and he hinted that extensions for other front office members would be more of a priority.  It’s difficult to imagine Epstein leaving just as the Cubs have become contenders again, especially given the historic significance of a Cubs World Series victory.  Given his track record and how the Cubs have rebounded, Epstein is already in position to command the largest contract ever given to a baseball executive in his next contract, whether it’s in Chicago or elsewhere.

Braves: The club extended Fredi Gonzalez’s contract last summer, guaranteeing his 2016 year and adding a club option for 2017.  The Braves are now in such full-fledged rebuild mode that firing Gonzalez now would seem unusual given how they had arguably more reason to do so prior to his extension, such as after the team’s late-season collapse in 2014.  Atlanta has targeted 2017 and the opening of its new ballpark for a return to respectability, so it wouldn’t be a shock if a change was made next winter if the team feels its rebuild is over and a dugout upgrade is needed to take the next step into contention.

Blue Jays: John Gibbons is only technically on this list for another few days given his rolling contract.  If Gibbons is still the Jays’ manager on January 1, Toronto’s club option on his services for 2017 will become guaranteed and another club option will be generated for 2018.  Despite the Jays’ AL East title last year, Gibbons (who had a close relationship with former Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos) may still be under extra pressure in 2016 with Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins now atop the Blue Jays’ baseball operations pyramid.

Astros: The terms of Jeff Luhnow’s original deal to serve as Houston’s GM weren’t revealed when he was hired in the 2011-12 offseason, nor were the terms of his extension during the 2013-14 offseason (in fact, news of that extension didn’t even break until roughly a year after the fact).  Looking at the timeline of these deals, it’s possible 2016 could be Luhnow’s last year under contract, though this all could be a moot point — given how his extensive and sometimes controversial rebuild paid off in the form of a playoff berth, Luhnow likely isn’t going anywhere.

Cafardo’s Latest: Gallardo, Dunn, Gordon, Maeda, Rays, Hill

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Nick Cafardo shares his Cooperstown ballot and some hot stove items in his latest column for the Boston Globe…

  • Alan Nero, Yovani Gallardo’s agent, said he had talked with teams over the last week but nothing has moved forward with his client’s situation.  The Royals, Astros and Orioles were all linked to Gallardo two weeks ago, and since those teams are also finalists for Scott Kazmir’s services, Cafardo figures the two pitchers have somewhat shared markets at the moment.
  • It’s looking as if the Marlins may trade lefty Mike Dunn, as Miami has received interest in the reliever.  Dunn posted a 4.50 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 2.24 K/BB rate over 54 innings in 2015, a bit of a down year following very good seasons in 2013-14.  ERA indicators and advanced metrics, however, don’t show too much of a difference between Dunn in 2014 and 2015 aside from an increase in home run rate (6% to 11.1%) and walk rate (3.47 to 4.83).  Dunn battled severe control problems early in his career, and Cafardo says that Dunn’s rise in walk rate has scared a few teams away.  The southpaw is entering the last year of a two-year extension that will pay him $3.45MM in 2016.
  • Alex Gordon “prefers to stay in Kansas City, though that dream may be fading.”  According to reports earlier in the week, the Royals offered Gordon a four-year deal worth around $12MM-$13MM per season, and Gordon’s agents told the club that it has “no chance” of re-signing him at the moment.
  • The Dodgers are seen as the favorites for Kenta Maeda given their need for pitching, though Cafardo also says L.A. is looking at trading for Jake Odorizzi “and/or” Alex Cobb from the Rays.  Odorizzi has already been linked to the Dodgers in rumors and I would have to think that Los Angeles would just target one Rays pitcher since the prospect cost for both would be overwhelming (even if Cobb will miss at least half of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery).
  • Rich Hill tells Cafardo that the Athletics’ “immediate” and persistent interest, pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum and the presence of pitching coach Curt Young (Hill’s former pitching coach in Boston) all factored into his decision to sign a one-year, $6MM contract with Oakland.  Hill also noted that the A’s are “giving me a chance to make those 32 starts,” and according to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan at the time of the signing, Hill turned down a larger offer from another team due to Oakland’s promise of a regular rotation spot.

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