Submit Your Questions For The MLBTR Mailbag
The most recent edition of the MLBTR Mailbag saw Jeff Todd answer questions on Clay Buchholz‘s option, the Giants’ bullpen, Brian Dozier‘s trade value and Mark Melancon‘s free agent stock in an open market that’ll also feature premier closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.
If you have a question on the upcoming offseason, free agency, the playoffs, our arbitration projections from earlier this morning or anything else and would like to hear MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. We can’t get to every question, of course, but we’ll try to diversify the teams/subject matter as best we can. If you miss out on having your question answered, remember that you can always ask during one of our three weekly live chats — Tuesday at 2pm CT with myself, Wednesday at 6:30pm with Jason Martinez and/or Thursday at 2pm with Jeff. Mailbag questions are welcome throughout the week, so feel free to send them in at any time.
Rockies Looking To Upgrade Bullpen
Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich realizes he needs to improve his team’s bullpen, which was among the majors’ worst this year, but he’s “not sure yet” if he’ll acquire potential upgrades from outside the organization.
“I think that we are going to do everything that we need to do in the offseason to see if there are ways to making us better in the ‘pen,” Bridich told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.
Bridich did pick up three established relievers last year via free agency and the trade market, but none of the moves panned out in 2016. His most notable transaction was sending outfielder Corey Dickerson to the Rays for left-hander Jake McGee, who was a terrific late-game option in Tampa Bay. That wasn’t the case in McGee’s first year in Colorado, though, as he logged a career-worst 4.73 ERA to go with 7.49 K/9 (down from 11.57 in 2015) and 3.15 BB/9 (up from 1.93 the previous year) in 45 2/3 innings. McGee’s average four-seam fastball velocity also fell to 93.4 after sitting at 96.4 just two years ago, as Saunders notes, and his swinging strike percentage that was comfortably in the double digits from 2012-15 plummeted to 8.6 this season. Colorado now has to decide whether to tender a contract to McGee, who’s set to make his fourth and final trip through arbitration after collecting $4.8MM in 2016.
Unlike McGee, the Rockies’ two other high-profile bullpen investments from last offseason – right-handers Chad Qualls and Jason Motte – are already under contract for next year. The Rockies signed the pair to two-year pacts worth a combined $16MM on the same day last December, but neither helped the club’s cause this season. Motte was on the disabled list multiple times with shoulder issues. In the 23 2/3 innings he did pitch, Motte posted a 4.94 ERA (a far cry from his halcyon days as a Cardinal), though he did impress with 9.13 K/9 against 3.04 BB/9. Qualls’ strikeout rate (6.06) was nowhere near as palatable, and he also struggled to prevent runs (5.23 ERA) despite limiting walks (2.48 per nine) and generating ground balls at a 55 percent clip across 32 2/3 frames.
Heading into the offseason, most of the prominent members of the Rockies’ 2016 bullpen remain under their control. Considering their relievers produced the majors’ worst ERA (5.13) and seventh-worst K/BB ratio (2.3), that’s not exactly encouraging. The only standouts set to return are Adam Ottavino and Chris Rusin. Southpaw Boone Logan, one of Colorado’s few effective relievers, is on track to hit free agency. If Bridich tries to improve his bullpen via the open market, Nationals closer Mark Melancon is a free agent-to-be and a Colorado native, though he’ll likely be out of the Rockies’ price range. Otherwise, there’s no shortage of soon-to-be available options who could help the Rockies at less expensive costs.
Poll: Should The Blue Jays Issue Jose Bautista A Qualifying Offer?
Like the other seven major league teams currently in the postseason, the Blue Jays are trying to fight their way to a World Series title. But regardless of whether Toronto’s season ends with a championship, the club will have decisions to make on two franchise icons in the coming weeks. As soon-to-be free agents, designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and right fielder/DH Jose Bautista could depart Canada after the season. If the Blue Jays aren’t able to strike new deals with either, the team could receive a first-round pick as compensation for each if it tenders them one-year, $16.7MM qualifying offers (assuming the QO system remains in place).
Encarnacion is a shoo-in to land an offer, but Bautista’s case looks somewhat less certain than it did coming into the season. At that point, Bautista was fresh off six straight excellent campaigns dating back to his stunning breakout in 2010. Between then and 2015, Bautista combined to slash a superb .268/.390/.555 in 3,604 plate appearances. Along the way, he accounted for 32.5 fWAR – the majors’ fifth-highest total among position players – walked almost as much as he struck out (15.9 percent to 16.0 percent), hit 28 more home runs (227) than his nearest competitor, Miguel Cabrera, and posted a .287 ISO. That elite-level performance reportedly had Bautista in search of a massive contract last winter, but a decline in output has likely hurt his earning power since.
Bautista was on the disabled list twice during the regular season, and in the 116 games he did play, he wasn’t the all-world offensive threat he had been during the previous six years. By no means was Bautista’s production at the plate subpar, however, as he still batted a more-than-respectable .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers and a .217 ISO in 517 PAs. He also continued controlling the strike zone, albeit not as well as he did in prior seasons, with 87 walks against 103 strikeouts. With his below-average defense and baserunning factored in, Bautista was worth just 1.5 fWAR this year – his lowest total since 2008, when he was toiling in anonymity.
Bautista’s down season would be less alarming if he weren’t about to turn 36, which could scare off the Blue Jays or other teams when the time comes to hand him a lucrative multiyear contract. Not only that, but Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggested Sunday that Toronto might not issue Bautista a qualifying offer because of fear that he could accept it. In response, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk argued that, given Bautista’s track record, the Jays would welcome him back for 2017 at a $16.7MM price tag. He also pointed out that Bautista is in the midst of another quality playoff showing, having already smashed three homers this postseason for a club that could advance to its second straight ALCS tonight.
I’m in the same camp as Mark regarding Bautista, but what do you think?
Poll: Should the Blue Jays Issue Bautista a qualifying offer?
-
Yes 80% (8,983)
-
No 20% (2,301)
Total votes: 11,284
Rob Manfred On Schedule, Managers, MASN
David Lennon of Newsday reported in July that Major League Baseball and the players’ union were discussing shortening the regular season, perhaps from 162 games to 154. Those talks are ongoing, according to commissioner Rob Manfred, who told reporters Saturday that the league and the union are “in the midst of conversations” about the schedule. Manfred didn’t offer further details, saying that the topic “belongs at the collective bargaining table, which is where it is right now.” Manfred revealed last week that the two sides should reach a new collective bargaining agreement by the end of the postseason, so a resolution on the length of the season could come soon. The current CBA is set to expire in December.
More from the commissioner:
- There are only three minority managers in baseball, but Manfred contends that its hiring process “is as strong as possible in terms of making sure that when we have field manager openings … diverse candidates have an opportunity to get those jobs.” Since the regular season ended, the White Sox have promoted former bench Rick Renteria, who’s of Latin American descent, while Ron Washington, an African American, is a finalist for the Braves’ job. Atlanta also interviewed three other minority candidates – Bo Porter, Eddie Perez and Terry Pendleton. Perez is now on the radar of the manager-less Rockies.
- While Manfred expressed confidence in July that the league would ultimately decide the long-running dispute between the Nationals and Orioles centering on the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, that’s no longer the case. “I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that that situation is going to play out in the courts, and there’s not a lot that I can do to move that process along,” said Manfred. The Orioles own 90 percent of MASN compared to the Nationals’ 10 percent, and the teams are fighting over how much in broadcast fees the Nats should receive.
Latest On Garrett Richards’ Recovery
The possibility of Angels right-hander Garrett Richards bouncing back from an injury-shortened 2016 to return to the team’s rotation next year is gaining steam. In a move that has paid off thus far, Richards decided early in the season to undergo stem-cell therapy treatment on his elbow instead of Tommy John surgery.
Richards threw his second of three scheduled instructional league outings Saturday and told the Los Angeles Daily News via text that “everything was great. Felt even better than last time.” The 28-year-old tossed 50 pitches, up from 25 in his first showing, and will conclude with a four-inning effort Thursday. Barring any issues, Richards will then receive another stem-cell injection and stop throwing until January, at which point he’ll begin getting ready for the 2017 campaign.
Back in May, it appeared Richards and fellow Angels starter Andrew Heaney would undergo Tommy John procedures because of elbow tears. The pair chose another route, though Heaney hasn’t been as fortunate as Richards to this point. Heaney ultimately went under the knife in July, which means he won’t come back until the tail end of next season at the earliest. A significant snag in Richards’ recovery could also lead to surgery and keep him out for 2017, but he’s currently on track to return to action after missing all but one month this season.
Before his year ended on May 1, Richards logged a 2.34 ERA, 8.8 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 34 2/3 innings. From 2014-15, Richards started 58 games and recorded a 3.18 ERA, 8.14 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9 across 376 frames. That type of production over a full season would have been a boon to this year’s Angels, who had one of the majors’ worst rotations. Going forward, penciling in Richards along with Matt Shoemaker, Ricky Nolasco and Tyler Skaggs would give Los Angeles nearly an entire rotation. Alex Meyer could grab the remaining spot, while Jered Weaver and Jhoulys Chacin are impending free agents, and Nick Tropeano won’t be available after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August.
Unless Richards experiences a setback significant enough for the Angels to non-tender him, he’ll make his third trip through arbitration during the winter and collect a negligible raise over his $6.43MM salary. Richards is under LA’s control through the 2018 campaign, after which he’s scheduled to become a free agent.
MLBTR Originals
MLBTR’s original features from this week:
- MLBTR welcomed back former Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs and longtime reliever Burke Badenhop for a pair of guest pieces. Ryan offered insight into how September baseball affected his career (and how it impacts other major leaguers). Meanwhile, Burke explained what free agency was like for him and why reaching the open market is such an important milestone for players.
- Jeff Todd honored and thanked legendary Dodgers play-by-play man Vin Scully, who called the final game of his incredible 67-year tenure with the team last Sunday.
- In the first edition of this year’s 30-team “Offseason Outlook” series, Charlie Wilmoth set a course for the Pirates’ winter.
- Speaking of the Pirates, Jeff surveyed readers whether the club should trade five-time All-Star center fielder Andrew McCutchen in the coming months. In other MLBTR polls, Mark Polishuk asked which team will win this year’s World Series, while Jeff questioned if the Mets should pick up outfielder Jay Bruce‘s $13MM option. Finally, Charlie wondered if Major League Baseball should alter its September roster expansion rules.
- Jeff continued MLBTR’s “Three Needs” series with a look ahead to the Athletics’ offseason.
Royals’ J.J. Picollo Believed To Be Candidate For D’Backs GM Job; Rays’ Chaim Bloom Declines Interview
2:23pm: Bloom has turned down an opportunity to interview with the Diamondbacks, reports Piecoro. Dodgers executive Alex Anthopoulos did the same earlier this week, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman relayed Saturday.
9:58am: Rays VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom and Royals’ assistant GM J.J. Picollo are believed to be candidates for the Diamondbacks’ general manager position, league sources tell Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The two executives join a lengthy list of names previously linked to the D’Backs job, including Ned Colletti, Kim Ng, Ray Montgomery, Peter Woodfork and internal candidates Bryan Minniti and Mike Bell.
Both Bloom and Picollo have been connected to multiple front office openings in recent years, even getting consideration for the same job on more than one occasion. Both were interviewed for the Twins GM job just last month, and both were contenders to become the Phillies’ new general manager last offseason before the team hired Matt Klentak. (Picollo was an early favorite for the Philadelphia job, though it was Bloom who ended up making the Phillies’ final three list of candidates for the position, along with Klentak and A’s assistant GM Dan Kantrovitz.) Bloom was also interviewed by the Brewers last offseason before they hired David Stearns as their new general manager.
Unlike the other known candidates, Bloom and Picollo don’t have any previous connection with the D’Backs themselves or other NL West teams, so they would bring a fresh perspective to Arizona’s baseball operations department. Bloom has spent his entire 11-year career in baseball with Tampa Bay, while Picollo has spent the last decade in the Royals’ front office and the previous seven years working for the Braves. Both are also younger executives (Picollo is 45 years old and Bloom is just 33) and thought to be more analytically-minded, which would also represent a change in direction for the D’Backs. The previous front office, led by Tony La Russa and since-fired GM Dave Stewart, was rather openly old-school in their approach, with an analytics department headed by a first-time baseball ops hire.
Dan Duquette On Machado, Tillman, Schoop, Britton Extension Talks
In the Orioles’ season-ending press conference with media (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) earlier this week, baseball operations executive VP Dan Duquette commented on the possibility of the club exploring extensions with several players, saying “I’m sure we’ll have time to take a look at that” during the offseason.
“All of those players have done a great job for us,” Duquette said, referring to Manny Machado, Chris Tillman and Jonathan Schoop. “We have explored extensions in the past, in fact a couple times each, with Tillman and Machado. We haven’t approached Jonathan Schoop on a long-term basis yet, but I’m sure we’ll have time to do that when it’s appropriate.”
As Duquette noted, this isn’t the first time the O’s have looked into extending its superstar third baseman or its staff ace. FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported in June that Machado and the Orioles had come close to a seven-year extension at some point in recent years, while the club negotiated with Tillman about a long-term deal prior to the 2015 season.
A Machado extension, of course, would almost certainly be one of the largest deals in baseball history. Machado has generated more fWAR than all but three other players in baseball over the last two seasons, thanks to his combination of both elite third base defense and outstanding hitting. At just 24 years of age, Machado will only be 26 when he hits free agency after the 2018 season, so the Orioles would need to pay well in excess of $200MM in order to lock up the young star into his free agent seasons. Extending Machado would break new financial ground for the O’s, though Baltimore has shown it is willing to spend big to extend or retain key position players like Adam Jones or Chris Davis.
Tillman is the most immediate concern since he can hit the open market after the 2017 season, though his price tag is less clear. He rebounded from a disappointing 2015 season to post a 3.77 ERA, 2.12 K/BB rate and 7.3 K/9 over 172 innings this year, though as per advanced metrics, there actually wasn’t much of a gap between the righty’s performance over the last two years. Tillman has produced between 1.8 and 2.4 fWAR in each of the last four seasons and averaged 190 innings per year in that span, though the Orioles are notoriously cautious (some could say over-cautious) when it comes to committing to pitchers in long-term deals. It could be that the Orioles would be more comfortable spending money on a pitcher they’re already quite familiar with, especially given that the club is already in such need of rotation help.
Schoop will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, so the Orioles aren’t necessarily in any rush to extend the second baseman. Schoop, who turns 25 next week, hit a career-high 25 homers but was a below-average (97 wRC+) offensive performer overall thanks to a .267/.298/.454 slash line over 647 plate appearances. Between Schoop’s high strikeout totals and lack of OBP, there could still be some question if he is indeed a long-term piece for the Orioles, though obviously there’s still room for growth for such a young player.
Duquette was also asked about the possibility of extending star closer Zach Britton, and Duquette merely responded that Britton is still two years away from free agency. Extending Britton now would be the definition of a buy-high move given that he is coming off one of the best seasons from any closer in baseball history, though an extension would also give Baltimore some cost certainty over Britton’s rising price tag. He is due a major raise from his 2016 salary of $6.75MM, and he still has two arb years left thanks to his Super Two designation. Committing huge dollars to any reliever can be a roll of the dice, so the Orioles could be willing to simply go year-to-year with Britton.
AL East Notes: Rays, Bogaerts, Bautista, Encarnacion
The Blue Jays can advance to the ALCS for the second straight year if they can defeat the Rangers in Game Three of their series tonight, while the Red Sox will be eliminated if they don’t win their own Game Three with the Indians this afternoon. The Sox could live to play another day, however, without ever taking the field — there is a lot of rain in the forecast in Boston and MLB officials are already meeting to discuss a possible postponement. Here’s the latest from around the AL East…
- The Rays may have to trade some salary in order to add needed parts to their roster while still keeping a payroll in the $65-$70MM range, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Drew Smyly, Erasmo Ramirez and Brad Boxberger could all be potential trade chips, Topkin speculates, since the three hurlers are all becoming increasingly expensive through arbitration.
- In his latest Boston Globe notes column, Nick Cafardo wonders if the Red Sox could eventually move Xander Bogaerts to third base given Bogaerts’ subpar defensive metrics. Bogaerts’ glovework accounted for minus-10 Defensive Runs Saved and -1.6 UZR/150 in 2016, a significant drop from his generally average numbers in 2015. A move to the hot corner doesn’t seem imminent, given that the Sox already have Travis Shaw as the incumbent, Pablo Sandoval still owed a lot of money and top prospects Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers also lined up for third base. It could be that the Red Sox can live with Bogaerts’ defense as long as he keeps producing at the plate. If not, other shortstop options include slick-fielding but light-hitting Deven Marrero, as well as prospects C.J. Chatham and Mauricio Dubon still a couple of years away.
- Also from Cafardo’s column, he opines that Jose Bautista‘s time with the Blue Jays could be coming to an end. The Jays may not even extend Bautista a one-year, $16.7MM qualifying offer for fear that the slugger could accept it. Bautista had a down year by his standards, hitting .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers over 517 plate appearances in a season interrupted by two DL stints. These are still pretty solid numbers, however, plus Bautista is enhancing his stock with another big postseason performance, so I would be pretty surprised if the Blue Jays declined to even issue a QO. Unless the club is simply ready to move on from the slugger, I would also imagine that the Jays wouldn’t mind having Bautista back on a one-year deal, given his outstanding track record.
- The Blue Jays could make Edwin Encarnacion another offer in the wake of his excellent season, Cafardo writes, though Encarnacion is expected to be a top Red Sox target to replace David Ortiz.
- Encarnacion has long been linked to Boston on the rumor mill, though ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) feels Encarnacion isn’t really a fit since the Red Sox are already overflowing with position players. The Sox could also use a left-handed bat rather than a righty-swinger like Encarnacion, plus there are several other first base/DH types on the market this winter that could be obtained for a much cheaper price.
Mariners Notes: Cozart, Bullpen, First Base, Roster
The Mariners’ main offseason needs and pending roster decisions are outlined by Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune…
- The M’s are expected to revisit trade talks with the Reds about Zack Cozart. The two clubs nearly agreed to a dealing deal that would’ve sent Cozart and a prospect to Seattle in exchange for minor leaguer Luiz Gohara and another prospect, but ran out of time prior to the August 1 deadline, in part because Cincinnati was busy with additional medical paperwork related to the Jay Bruce trade with the Mets. Cozart is only under contract through the 2017 season, so the door is still open for Ketel Marte to be Seattle’s shortstop of the future. Mariners officials think Marte “would benefit next season from taking a step back,” pointing to how James Paxton and Mike Zunino blossomed after taking a reduced role.
- Beyond adding Cozart or another veteran shortstop, Dutton identifies a right-handed hitting first baseman and a hard-throwing lefty reliever as the Mariners’ other big areas of need. Dan Vogelbach will form the left-handed side of the first base platoon, and Dutton speculates that the M’s could re-sign Dae-ho Lee to again serve as the right-handed first base bat. For external options, Dutton believes free agent Steve Pearce is a good fit for the M’s — Pearce mashes southpaws and provides depth at not just first base but potentially several spots around the diamond.
- In regards to the left-handed reliever, Dutton cites the Pirates’ Tony Watson as what the Mariners are looking for in a southpaw who is capable of filling a setup role or just situational work against left-handed hitters. Acquiring Watson himself may not be in the cards, though Dutton notes that the Pirates could look to save some money with Watson getting more expensive through arbitration. Internally, the M’s could use Ariel Miranda for this left-handed bullpen role, though the club prefers him as a starter for now.
- In a separate piece that breaks down every player on Seattle’s 40-man roster, Dutton writes that the Mariners are likely to non-tender Charlie Furbush and let Drew Storen walk in free agency. Tom Wilhelmsen, who is eligible for arbitration, also “could easily get squeezed out” given that he has fallen behind several other arms in the bullpen pecking order.
- The Mariners probably won’t pick up Chris Iannetta‘s $4.25MM club option, leaving them looking for a backup catcher. Among internal options, Jesus Sucre is more affordable and has a good relationship with Felix Hernandez.
- “A new deal seems reasonably likely” for longtime outfielder Franklin Gutierrez, who is headed for free agency. The M’s also have an interest in re-signing Nori Aoki, even though his presence creates a bit of a logjam with Gutierrez possibly returning and Seth Smith‘s club option almost certainly being exercised. Dutton wonders if this could lead to Smith becoming a trade chip if Aoki is indeed brought back.