Year: 2016

Questions Remaining

In terms of being a pure replacement for Chen, Gallardo matches up quite well since the two have been almost equally valuable since 2012.  Considering that Chen is seven months older and cost the Marlins a five-year, $80MM commitment (albeit with an opt-out clause), the O’s did well on paper in landing Gallardo at a fraction of the money and years.

The bigger question, of course, is that if Gallardo merely replaces Chen’s production, it won’t do much to help a rotation that badly struggled in 2015.  If Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez both scuffle again, Ubaldo Jimenez reverts to his 2014 form and Kevin Gausman doesn’t take the step forward from promising young arm to reliable front-of-the-rotation starter, Baltimore is going to have to win a lot of slugfests.

It could be that the Davis negotiations prevented the O’s from pursuing one of this winter’s top free agent aces.  For all of the money the Orioles spent this winter, they had to keep a lot of powder dry to land Davis, who didn’t sign until January.  By that time, many of the biggest pitching names on the market were already long gone.  Since the O’s were able to add several bats with first base experience anyway and had a clearer need for pitching than hitting, it could be argued that Baltimore should’ve prioritized an ace rather than a top slugger like Davis.  Such a strategy might ultimately have been a non-starter, however, given how owner Peter Angelos is so hesitant about any kind of major pitching signing.

Also on the pitching front, the O’s were linked to such names as trade target Hector Santiago (who thought he was on the verge of being dealt to the Orioles in November) and free agent Scott Kazmir, whose injury history could’ve led to an interesting run through the Baltimore medical gauntlet.  Baltimore did add one depth option in Odrisamer Despaigne, who will join Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson as the Orioles’ first line of rotation replacements.

While Trumbo and Alvarez bring a lot of pop, they also bring a lot of whiffs to a club that already had the third-highest strikeout rate in the game.  Neither slugger is much of an on-base threat and both are defensive liabilities, though playing one of them regularly at DH should mitigate a bit of that last concern.

It’s fair to say that Trumbo would be slated as the regular DH and Alvarez wouldn’t be on the roster at all had Baltimore succeeded in landing one of their top outfield targets.  The Orioles were linked to Jay Bruce and Nick Markakis in trade rumors and were also connected to several of the offseason’s biggest free agent outfielders — Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, and Yoenis Cespedes.  Had the Davis talks fallen through, the O’s would likely have made a harder run at any of these three, though they reportedly made Cespedes an offer in the five-year, $90MM range when negotiations with Davis were at an impasse.  It’s worth noting that Upton and Cespedes both signed contracts with opt-out clauses, which the Orioles refuse to offer.

That stance against opt-outs may have cost them Dexter Fowler, who had one of the offseason’s stranger free agent stints.  Fowler was still unsigned in late February thanks to the qualifying offer dragging down his market, though for a couple of days it seemed like the Orioles were going to add both Gallardo and Fowler to three-year deals in the $33-$35MM range.  Instead, Gallardo signed his two-year deal and Fowler didn’t sign at all, surprisingly returning to the Cubs on a one-year contract when several media outlets were reporting an agreement with Baltimore.  The situation led to some strong displeasure expressed by Fowler’s agent Casey Close, though it seems the two sides were never as close as reports indicated.  Without Fowler to solidify right field, the O’s will have to get by with Trumbo’s shaky defense.

Deal Of Note

The O’s were ultimately comfortable in surrendering their first-round pick (14th overall) to sign Gallardo, and they did recoup another first-rounder (27th overall) as compensation for Chen.  All in all, Baltimore will have five picks between the #27-91 selections of this year’s draft, and you wonder if the team wasn’t hoping for an even bigger draft haul in the form of an extra pick from Wieters’ free agency.

Wieters’ acceptance of the qualifying offer caught many by surprise, perhaps even a few in the Baltimore front office.  If a return wasn’t in the cards, then that move was unquestionably the biggest domino to fall in the Orioles offseason.  If Wieters turns down the QO, then Clevenger isn’t dealt and perhaps Trumbo stays in Seattle…then perhaps the Orioles have more pressure to get a deal done with Davis and sign him earlier…and then maybe the O’s have time to get in on a top starter who’s still on the market while they have an extra $15.8MM to spend.  The possibilities are endless.

Not only was Wieters projected to be the top free agent catcher on the market, it was doubly stunning that a Boras client was one of the first three players to accept the QO given how the agent has so disparaged the qualifying offer system.  Still, in this context, the QO isn’t too different from the “pillow contract” strategy that Boras himself has pursued with other clients.  Wieters was limited to just 101 games over the last two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, and had an overall subpar year at the plate when healthy and playing 148 games in 2013.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted Wieters would land a four-year, $64MM deal this winter simply due to his potential, track record and the lack of catching depth on the open market, though given how other players (including some notable Boras clients) have been affected by the qualifying offer, Wieters’ list of suitors could’ve been shorter than expected.

Rather than risk settling for a below-expectations contract, Wieters decided to take the $15.8MM (not a bad payday at all) on the table and spend another year in a familiar situation in order to improve his stock for next winter’s free agent market.  Staying healthy will be key, of course, and Wieters’ spring has already been interrupted by some elbow discomfort.

The 2016-17 free agent class is notably thinner than this year’s crop, so if Wieters is healthy and productive, he’ll be in much better position to land that huge multi-year deal.  Assuming he signs elsewhere after a strong campaign, the Orioles will still get their compensatory first-rounder for Wieters, just a year later than expected.

Overview

In Duquette’s first four offseasons as Baltimore’s executive VP of baseball operations, the team spent roughly $116MM combined on Major League free agents.  Needless to say, the O’s adopted a much different strategy towards the open market this winter, more than doubling that $116MM total.  You had to figure some increase was necessary given how many key names were free agents, though the sheer amount of spending raised eyebrows.  Only the Cubs, Tigers and Giants dedicated more to MLB free agents than the Orioles did this winter, and their total would’ve been even higher had they successfully landed Fowler.

Bringing back three of their own free agents is a clear sign that Angelos and Duquette believe in the core of this team, and the additional spending on new talent reinforces the notion that the Orioles are counting on a pennant run.  With at least $145MM (not counting pre-arbitration salaries) already committed to the payroll, it’s a safe guess that they’ll be comfortable spending more at the trade deadline to add another piece if they’re in contention.

That piece may well end up being a starting pitcher, as despite all of the spending, the Orioles are really just doubling down on their recent strategy of winning games via a big offense and a strong bullpen.  A lack of starting pitching depth won’t necessarily doom a team (just ask last year’s Royals and Blue Jays), though a lot will have to go right for Baltimore’s rotation to just be average.  Still, an average rotation may be all it takes considering the Orioles will be rolling out a lineup that includes Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Davis, Trumbo, Alvarez, Wieters, an emerging talent in Jonathan Schoop and maybe a hidden gem in Kim.

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Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images