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2017 Amateur Draft

AL Central Notes: No. 1 Pick, White Sox, Karns, Gose

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The Twins are leaning toward passing on high school right-hander/shortstop Hunter Greene with the top overall pick in the upcoming MLB draft, writes Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Greene has drawn quite a bit of fanfare over the past calendar year, due largely to his ability to reach triple digits with his fastball. However, he’d be the first high school right-hander ever selected with the draft’s top pick, and there’s a clear level of risk when selecting any prep arm near the top of the draft. Rather, the Twins are leaning toward Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright, Heyman hears, with Louisville left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay and prep shortstop Royce Lewis also under consideration. Baseball America’s John Manuel had the Twins selecting Wright in last week’s mock draft, while MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo had Greene tabbed as the Twins’ selection in his own mock draft from that same day.

A few more notes from the division…

  • Despite a perhaps surprisingly solid start to the year from the White Sox, general manager Rick Hahn is maintaining a long-term outlook as the summer trade season approaches, writes MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom. “We remain very open-minded about whatever opportunities present themselves to make us better for the long run,” said Hahn. “Our focus is on something that is more sustainable than this one season. We’re in the same mode we were in this past offseason, looking for some long-term pieces to put us in position to contend on an annual basis.” David Robertson, Todd Frazier and Jose Quintana are among the top names the Sox could make available, Bloom observes, though the latter two from that trio haven’t exactly gotten off to strong starts in 2017.
  • The Royals announced yesterday that right-hander Nate Karns has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to an “extensor strain” (per the club’s transactions page at MLB.com). For the time being, his spot in the rotation will go to rookie Miguel Almonte, who was slated to start today’s series finale at Yankee Stadium prior to a rainout, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. There’s been no timetable provided by the Royals for Karns’ absence, though his injury comes at an especially inopportune time; the right-hander had been excellent across his past four starts, pitching to a 2.01 ERA with an otherworldly 32-to-4 K/BB ratio through 22 1/3 innings. It’s not yet clear if today’s postponement will deprive Almonte of the opportunity to make a start, though Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star tweets that the starts in this weekend’s series will go to Ian Kennedy, Jason Vargas and Danny Duffy.
  • Anthony Gose, who has converted from playing center field to pitching, made his pro debut on the mound for Class-A Lakeland yesterday, writes Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. Tigers manager Brad Ausmus tells Fenech that Gose’s fastball sat at 97 mph, and the left-hander also touched 98 mph twice and 99 mph three times. Gose was a two-way prospect in the draft back in 2008, so pitching isn’t exactly new to him, though he obviously hasn’t focused on it in his nearly nine seasons of professional ball. Ausmus noted that due to Gose’s age, he may not be progressed through the minors like a typical (i.e. younger) prospect would be. The implication there, seemingly, is that Gose may not need to stop at every level before the club decides to take a look at him in the Majors. That, however, could be a long shot to happen in 2017. GM Al Avila appeared on the Jamie and Stoney Show on 97.1 The Ticket in Detroit this week and said that he wouldn’t put a firm “no” on Gose pitching in the Majors this season, though he also didn’t characterize that outcome as likely (via Will Burchfield of CBS Detroit).

Draft Notes: Top 50, Greene, Schmidt

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ESPN.com’s Keith Law provides his ranking of the top fifty amateur players (Insider link) who are eligible for selection in this summer’s Rule 4 draft. The group as a whole has generally disappointed, Law writes, perhaps leading teams to “flee to safety” by looking at safer collegiate performers with their top selections. Of course, such a strategy would also open up some greater opportunities for organizations with multiple early selections to take some risks on higher-upside, younger prospects.

  • Like most analysts, Law has called right-handed pitcher and shortstop Hunter Greene the top overall draft prospect. As has been suggested previously, he will indeed no longer take the hill in high school competition in advance of the draft, as Hudson Belinsky of Baseball America writes. That’s unlikely to impact his stock, as teams have already seen plenty of triple-digit heaters and will continue to watch him play in the field — where he’s also considered a top talent. Greene and his family are taking a very active role in assessing organizations and their approaches to developing pitchers, Belinsky explains, with the Twins (who sit at first overall) and Padres (third) seemingly making for a better match than the Reds (who choose second).
  • One of the draft’s other top prospects, South Carolina righty Clarke Schmidt, has unfortunately been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will undergo Tommy John surgery, as Belinsky also reports. The junior starter had risen to be seen as a clear first-round selection before this rough news. Of course, he could still end up being taken with a lofty selection; we have seen several hurlers nabbed quite early in the draft in recent years despite serious arm injuries.

Quick Hits: Pedroia, JDM, Greene, Draft, Analytics

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Dustin Pedroia will undergo an MRI on his left ankle and knee on Monday, Red Sox manager John Farrell told reporters (including MassLive.com’s Jen McCaffrey and The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham).  After suffering the injury on a hard slide from Manny Machado on Friday, Pedroia sat out Saturday’s game and is also not in Sunday’s lineup, as Farrell said the swelling around Pedroia’s lower leg area hasn’t yet subsided.  While the MRI is being performed “just to rule anything out,” according to Farrell, it’s worth noting that Pedroia underwent surgery on that same knee to remove part of his meniscus last October.

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • J.D. Martinez could return from the DL in late April or early May, Tigers skipper Brad Ausmus told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jason Beck).  This is the latest in a series of positive reports on Martinez, who suffered a lisfranc sprain in his left foot during Spring Training.  The original timeline had Martinez not even beginning baseball activities until mid-April, though the slugging outfielder has been ahead of schedule, including feeling better than expected during light running drills on Friday.  The Tigers will reportedly be cautious with Martinez, which isn’t any surprise given the tricky nature of lisfranc injuries and Martinez’s importance to Detroit’s lineup.
  • “The rumors of [Hunter Greene] and his family attempting to maneuver his way to the No. 3 pick with the Padres are a poorly kept secret,” Baseball America’s John Manuel writes as part of a mock draft.  Greene, a high school pitcher/shortstop, reportedly wants to be a Padre for geographical (Greene is from Los Angeles) and baseball-related reasons, as the Padres’ throwing program more closely matches Greene’s own throwing program.  Interestingly, Greene is believed to be shutting down as a pitcher, perhaps in part to lower his draft stock so that Minnesota and Cincinnati pass on him with the first two picks and Greene winds up in San Diego.  Then again, the Reds “aren’t afraid to call Greene’s bluff,” Manuel writes.
  • Manuel’s piece is well worth a full read, as he details potential needs, leanings, and first-round draft picks for all 30 teams.  Sticking with the top of the draft, the Reds “covet” Brendan McKay, the Louisville two-way star who Manuel projects will be taken first overall by the Twins as a pitcher.  Then again, Minnesota is also reportedly exploring deals with several players for the first pick, including high school position player Royce Lewis and Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith.
  • Teams showed an increased willingness to pay for pitch-framing ability and defense this winter (such as the Twins and Jason Castro) on the catching market, though as Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com notes, there are so many facets to the position that “catching cannot be quantified” no matter how hard teams try.  The same could technically be said of any position, though a catcher’s true value is particularly difficult to pin down since the human element of the pitcher/catcher relationship is so important.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Arrieta, Heyward, Draft, Yankees, Phillies

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Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta handled the Brewers on Sunday in a seven-inning, 10-strikeout showing, after which he downplayed concerns about his diminished velocity. “Where I’m at now in my career, I don’t worry about it, because I know that I’m smart enough to work around that,” Arrieta told reporters, including Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago. “The velocity’s still good enough to get it by guys and to do certain things in certain situations with it.” The 31-year-old is clearly confident in his current stuff, but he does expect to regain his lost velocity. “When the 95-to-97 comes back, it’s going to be tough for teams. And it still is,” declared Arrieta, who has posted sterling numbers through two starts this year as he continues to make his case for a massive contract. Arrieta stands as arguably the majors’ top soon-to-be free agent.

More from around the sport:

  • Although there has been skepticism toward Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward’s remade swing, the early returns on his offseason work have been promising, writes Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. Heyward picked up a pair of hits, including a triple, in five at-bats Sunday, and he managed to put the ball in play with 95 mph-plus exit velocities in each trip to the plate. “I like his hands,” observed manager Joe Maddon. “I like his hands more involved right now. He’s getting started sooner, staying through the ball longer.” Heyward’s previous swing yielded a highly disappointing .230/.306/.325 line in 592 PAs last season, which came as a shock after the normally solid hitter inked an eight-year, $184MM contract in free agency.
  • California-based high schooler Hunter Greene is the premier prospect in this year’s draft class based on his ability as a pitcher, but he’s also a top-10 talent as a shortstop, according to Keith Law of ESPN.com (subscription required/recommended). Law scouted Greene’s start Friday and noted that the right-hander’s fastball didn’t fall below 94 mph in any of his seven innings. The 17-year-old has No. 1 starter upside, opines Law, who believes Greene could even play some short and work as a part-time hitter in the majors. Louisville’s Brendan McKay, whom Law regards as the second-best player in this year’s class, is also a two-way talent. McKay is both a left-handed pitcher and a first baseman, and Law expects him to settle in as a hurler – one who could serve as a No. 3 type for the long haul. McKay has less upside than Greene, but the 21-year-old would be the safer pick, suggests Law. Check out the full piece for more details on both players.
  • The Yankees remain unsure sure how much time cornerstone catcher Gary Sanchez will miss on account of his right biceps strain, writes George A. King III of the New York Post. While the Sanchez-less Yanks could continue with Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka behind the plate in lieu of exploring outside options, King lists several potential targets if the club does look elsewhere for help. Hector Sanchez (Padres), Jesus Sucre (Rays), Tuffy Gosewisch (Mariners), former Yankee John Ryan Murphy (Twins), Ryan Hanigan (Rockies), Bobby Wilson (Dodgers) and Manny Pina (Brewers) are names to watch, relays King.
  • In the wake of Jeanmar Gomez’s meltdown against the Nationals on Sunday, Phillies manager Pete Mackanin revealed that he’s “considering” changing closers (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). “I’m going to have a talk with him tomorrow,” said Mackanin, whose Phillies escaped with a 4-3 win after Gomez blew a save. “I’ll have something for you tomorrow. I need to talk with him.” Gomez has allowed multiple runs in two of three appearances this year, and he has been especially prone to poor outings since the second half of last season. Gomez did log 37 saves in 2016, but he accomplished that in spite of a 4.85 ERA and a subpar K/9 (6.16). Now, if the Phillies turn to someone else as their closer, it’ll likely be Joaquin Benoit, Hector Neris or Edubray Ramos, notes Zolecki. Keeping Neris and Ramos in setup roles would tamp down their future arbitration earnings, though it’s unclear if that will factor into the Phillies’ decision.

Quick Hits: Draft, Norris, Sternberg, Hanson, Quintana

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This year’s amateur draft class is still quite unsettled, though in Baseball America’s initial ranking of the Top 100 draft prospects, Hudson Belinsky and John Manuel note that a pair of two-way players are standing out as the potential top two picks.  Louisville first baseman/left-handed pitcher Brendan McKay is drawing most of his attention as an “elite pure hit tool” batter though “at least one” interested team prefers him on the mound.  No right-handed high school pitcher has ever been drafted first overall, though 17-year-old Hunter Greene has an upper-90s fastball and has touched the 102mph mark.  This kind of live arm at such a young age has even drawn some Dwight Gooden comparisons, so most evalutors prefer Greene as a pitcher, though he also possesses “top-of-the-scale raw power” as a shortstop.  The Twins own the first pick in June’s draft, though McKay and Greene are just two of nine players Minnesota is reportedly considering for the top selection.

Here’s more from around baseball…

  • The Rays are currently “on the outside looking in” of the Derek Norris hunt, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (via Twitter), though they are still one of multiple teams talking to the free agent catcher.  The Rays have a need at catcher since Wilson Ramos will miss some time at the start of the season and require DH days after returning, and they’ve been linked to Norris since he was released by the Nationals last week.
  • Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Bill Chastain) about the team’s search for a new ballpark, noting that the Rays have already moved on from their top choice.  “We had some ideas on locations that weren’t available, that I thought would work perfectly, that were off the table,” Sternberg said. “So we’re sort of moving down our list, No. 2, 3, and 4.  Sometimes it’s like starting pitchers.  You have five of them, and sometimes No. 4 is better than No. 2, and really better than No. 1.“
  • Reds right-hander Nick Hanson, the club’s third-round pick in the 2016 draft, will undergo Tommy John surgery, as reported by SB Nation’s Eric Roseberry and the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Zach Buchanan (Twitter links).  Hanson, a Minnesota high schooler, was slated to attend the University of Kentucky before agreeing to an above-slot $925K bonus to join the Reds.  The 2017 Baseball America Prospect Handbook ranked him as the 30th-best prospect in Cincy’s system, describing the 6’6″ 18-year-old as “understandably raw with a loose arm” but owning a fastball in the 91-95mph range and the potential for an above-average curveball.  Given the usual TJ recovery period, Hanson’s best-case scenario for a return is midway through the 2018 season.
  • Jose Quintana is worth the big price it would cost the Pirates to acquire the southpaw from the White Sox, Paul Zeise of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette opines.  Quintana’s strong track record and affordable contract make him a good fit for the Bucs, who could sacrifice young arms Tyler Glasnow and Mitch Keller in order to win now with Quintana, in Zeise’s view.  Giving up outfield prospect Austin Meadows could be difficult, though Zeise wonders if the Sox have perhaps slightly lowered their asking price.  (White Sox GM Rick Hahn said nothing had changed on that front in comments to reporters today.)  Pirates GM Neal Huntington “should do [the trade] today,” Zeise writes, if Chicago would accept Glasnow, Keller and Josh Bell.

Finalized First Round Order For 2017 MLB Draft

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Now that Mark Trumbo has re-signed with the Orioles, all ten players who were issued qualifying offers last November have found landing spots for 2017.  Based on the teams who gained and lost draft picks from these qualifying offer free agents, the order for the first round of the 2017 amateur draft has now been finalized.

The biggest takeaway from the updated order, of course, is how relatively static things have remained since the order was originally established at the end of the regular season.  Of the 10 players who were issued the one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offers, two (Neil Walker, Jeremy Hellickson) accepted, and five others (Trumbo, Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Bautista, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner) re-signed with their original teams.  It was a far cry from last offseason, when 20 players were issued qualifying offers and 11 switched teams.

Here’s how the first 30 picks in the draft will shake out, covering both the first round and the compensation round…

1. Twins
2. Reds
3. Padres
4. Rays
5. Braves
6. Athletics
7. Diamondbacks
8. Phillies
9. Brewers
10. Angels
11. White Sox
12. Pirates
13. Marlins
14. Royals
15. Astros
16. Yankees
17. Mariners
18. Tigers
19. Giants
20. Mets
21. Orioles
22. Blue Jays
23. Dodgers
24. Red Sox
25. Nationals
26. Rangers
27. Cubs

COMPENSATION ROUND (bonus picks given to teams who issued qualifying offers to players who signed elsewhere; picks are allotted in inverse order of 2015 record)

28. Blue Jays (for Edwin Encarnacion signing with the Indians)
29. Rangers (for Ian Desmond signing with the Rockies)
30. Cubs (for Dexter Fowler signing with the Cardinals)

Teams don’t easily part with first round picks under any circumstances, though this offseason’s QO market may have been particularly impacted by uncertainty surrounding the new collective bargaining agreement.  Several of the game’s biggest spenders decided to largely sit out the free agent market for luxury tax purposes, plus a glut of first base/corner outfield/DH types in the market also contributed to Bautista, Trumbo and Encarnacion all receiving smaller deals than expected.

Encarnacion’s quiet market opened the door for the Indians to make a rare free agent splash, signing the slugger to a three-year, $60MM deal.  The Tribe are clearly in win-now mode, and they felt that the chance to sign Encarnacion at a relative bargain price was worth giving up the 25th overall pick (Cleveland was originally selecting 27th, but their pick was bumped up after the Desmond and Fowler signings).

The Rockies originally held the 11th overall pick (the highest non-protected pick in the first round), so they single-handedly shifted the draft order when they rather surprisingly inked Desmond to a five-year, $70MM contract.  Adding to the curiosity is the fact that the Rockies intend to use the athletic Desmond as a first baseman, though those plans could still change if Colorado deals from its outfield surplus before Opening Day.  This signing could end up being widely debated for years, depending on how Desmond performs in Denver and who the White Sox select now that they have moved up to that 11th overall draft slot.

This will be the last offseason where business is conducted under these qualifying offer and draft compensation rules, thanks to the new CBA.  Beginning next winter, players who have been issued a qualifying offer in the past are no longer eligible for another QO, which could bode well for players like Bautista, Hellickson and Walker.  Teams that sign a QO free agent will no longer have to give up a first-rounder in compensation, though such signings will still some at a notable cost; the new rules will more closely tie qualifying offer free agents to the luxury tax, international draft pools and revenue-sharing systems.

MLB.com has the full order for the entire draft, including the order for the two Competitive Balance rounds, which respectively take place after the compensation round and the second round.  Competitive Balance picks can be traded once the season begins, so there’s still a chance that the draft order could be further altered before teams start making their selections on June 12.  The Rays hold the top Competitive Balance pick, drafting 31st overall.

2017 Competitive Balance Draft Pick Order

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Major League Baseball has set the order of the competitive balance component of the 2017 draft, per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo. That establishes a new overall draft order, though remaining outcomes on players who declined qualifying offers will serve to modify the final slate.

As Mayo explains, there are some notable changes to the system under the new collective bargaining agreement. Unlike the old lottery system, there’s now a procedure in place to sort among the teams that are eligible to participate — i.e., those that are in the bottom ten league-wide in terms of revenue and/or market size. The new formula “takes revenue and winning percentage into account,” per Mayo.

In another twist, once the teams are ordered and sorted between Round A (after the first round) and Round B (after the second), that grouping will flip-flop from year to year. In other words, the teams that choose in Round A in 2017 will get to participate in Round B in 2018, and vice versa. That process will continue throughout the duration of the recently agreed-upon CBA, which runs through the year 2021. For the coming draft, six teams will participate in the higher portion.

The order reported by Mayo is somewhat tentative in nature, as Competitive Balance draft picks can be traded once the season starts (but only traded once). Furthermore, teams signing qualifying offer free agents could slightly alter the exact positioning of these picks in the 2017 draft. Here’s the current order, per Mayo’s report:

Competitive Balance Round A

  1. Tampa Bay Rays (No. 31 overall)
  2. Cincinnati Reds (32)
  3. Oakland Athletics (33)
  4. Milwaukee Brewers (34)
  5. Minnesota Twins (35)
  6. Miami Marlins (36)

Competitive Balance Round B

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks (No. 67 overall)
  2. San Diego Padres (68)
  3. Colorado Rockies (69)
  4. Cleveland Indians (70)
  5. Kansas City Royals (71)
  6. Pittsburgh Pirates (72)
  7. Baltimore Orioles (73)
  8. St. Louis Cardinals (74)

Current 2017 MLB Draft Order

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With the 2016 regular season now in the books, the preliminary order has been set for the 2017 amateur draft.  The order is set by a reversal of the standings, with the league-worst Twins getting the first overall pick.  When two or more teams have the same record, the better pick goes to the club who had the worse record in the previous season.  For instance, the Reds won 68 games in 2015, the Padres 74 games and the Rays 80 games, which established the order of the second, third and fourth overall selections.  Jonathan Mayo of MLBPipeline.com has the breakdown of where all 30 teams will pick in the first round of next June’s draft…

1. Twins (59-103)
2. Reds (68-94)
3. Padres (68-94)
4. Rays (68-94)
5. Braves (68-93)
6. Athletics (69-93)
7. Diamondbacks (69-93)
8. Phillies (71-91)
9. Brewers (73-89)
10. Angels (74-88)
11. Rockies (75-87)
12. White Sox (78-84)
13. Pirates (78-83)
14. Marlins (79-82)
15. Royals (81-81)
16. Astros (84-78)
17. Yankees (84-78)
18. Mariners (86-76)
19. Cardinals (86-76)
20. Tigers (86-75)
21. Giants (87-75)
22. Mets (87-75)
23. Orioles (89-73)
24. Blue Jays (89-73)
25. Dodgers (91-71)
26. Red Sox (93-69)
27. Indians (94-67)
28. Nationals (95-67)
29. Rangers (95-67)
30. Cubs (103-58)

Given the ongoing negotiations between the league and the players’ union about a new collective bargaining agreement, there is a chance the draft’s rules could be altered under a new CBA, whether it relates to draft spending pools, tying free agent compensation to the draft, etc.  Since it’s already October, however, it’s probably more likely that the same general framework will be in place for this winter’s transactions market, and any significant changes will apply to the 2017-18 offseason and the subsequent 2018 draft.

Under the current rules regarding free agent compensation, if a free agent rejects his team’s one-year/$16.7MM qualifying offer, that team is entitled to a compensatory pick between the first and second rounds if that player signs elsewhere.  The signing team would surrender its first-rounder, or highest remaining pick if it signs multiple QO free agents.

The top ten picks in the draft (held by the Twins, Reds, Padres, Rays, Braves, A’s, D’Backs, Phillies, Brewers and Angels) are protected, so if any of those teams signed a qualifying offer free agent, they would keep that pick and instead surrender their next-highest selection.  Owning a protected pick is a silver lining amidst disappointing seasons for these 10 clubs, as they can now still pursue a top free agent while retaining that valuable position at or near the top of the draft.  Teams who just missed the protected pick bottom-10 now face a tough decision; the White Sox, for instance, have made a few big free agent signings under GM Rick Hahn, but they’ll have to weigh signing a QO free agent against the value of that No. 12 overall selection.

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