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Archives for August 2017

Mark Melancon Weighing Surgery For Forearm Injury

By Jeff Todd | August 19, 2017 at 12:57pm CDT

SATURDAY: The injury is to Melancon’s forearm, Schulman writes. The Giants believe that the risk of further injury will not increase if Melancon continues pitching, so he will continue to do so for now while he weighs his options. Whether Melancon pursues surgery or rehab, the team’s goal is for him to be completely ready for Spring Training.

FRIDAY: Giants reliever Mark Melancon is considering undergoing surgery, he told reporters today, including Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (links to Twitter). The veteran righty declined to disclose the precise nature of the injury, but did indicate it is not an elbow ligament problem.

Whatever the malady, it has evidently plagued Melancon for quite some time. He says the problem has arisen from time to time dating back to 2012. This year, though, it has been a bigger concern. Melancon says he has dealt with “discomfort every day this season.” (Via MLB.com’s Chris Haft, on Twitter.)

It seems the decision has yet to be made, with the possibility of a procedure and also its timing still being weighed. Melancon noted that he wants to keep pitching down the stretch this year, even if there’s no hope of a postseason berth, because the club hopes to gain some momentum for a rebound in 2018.

Clearly, though, having a healthy and effective Melancon for the season to come will be the priority. He has not been at his best since landing in San Francisco over the winter on a four-year, $62MM free-agent pact. The 32-year-old has dealt with injury issues in or around the elbow joint, limiting him to 23 2/3 innings of 3.80 ERA ball this season.

There are both signs of optimism and of worry in Melancon’s 2017 stat sheet. He carries 7.6 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9, with a 17.2% K%-BB% that’s right in line with his outstanding work over the prior four seasons. His average fastball velocity has actually been up a bit after trending down over the past two years. On the other hand, Melancon has dropped back to a 9.6% swinging-strike rate — falling shy of double-digits for the first time since his last non-dominant campaign (in 2012, with the Red Sox).

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San Francisco Giants Mark Melancon

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NL Notes: Phillies, Rockies, Cardinals, Price

By charliewilmoth | August 19, 2017 at 12:18pm CDT

Phillies righty Zach Eflin left yesterday’s game with shoulder discomfort, and while there’s no indication yet that the injury is serious, it continues a pattern for Phillies starters that’s likely to lead to the team pursuing rotation help this winter, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. The ten starters the Phillies have used this year include two pitchers who are now injured (Clay Buchholz and Vince Velasquez); Jeremy Hellickson, who’s now with Baltimore; and several younger pitchers who haven’t yet laid clear claim to more permanent spots. Their 2018 rotation now includes only two locks, Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff. That means they’re likely to pursue veteran starting pitching help this winter. A high-profile free agent like Yu Darvish seems unlikely, but the team could pursue any number of lower-tier options on the free agent and trade markets. Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Rockies have announced that they’ve optioned righty Jeff Hoffman and third baseman Ryan McMahon to Triple-A Albuquerque. Taking their places on the active roster are righty Scott Oberg and outfielder Mike Tauchman. The Rockies say they’re optioning Hoffman in order to give him a bit of rest, as MLB.com’s Max Gelman notes. Hoffman has struggled in the second half, with a 7.13 ERA and just 5.9 K/9, and his velocity has been inconsistent of late. “That’s a sign to us. ’Hey, is your arm fine?’” says pitching coach Steve Foster. “’Yeah, I feel great. I’m healthy.’ OK, well then let’s give you a little break.”
  • In the 2015-16 offseason, the Cardinals thought they were going to land David Price, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. The Cards had reportedly offered Price $180MM, and they were located relatively near the Nashville area, where Price grew up. “We felt there were some synergies in his being a Cardinal — his Nashville roots, [and] he had made it fairly public that we were a team of interest,” says Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak. “Unfortunately, it didn’t work out.” The Red Sox increased their offer to $217MM, and Price also says he liked the Red Sox’ young talent as compared to the Cardinals’. Price headed to Boston, and the Cards signed Mike Leake at a considerably lower price. As it turns out, the Cardinals’ miss on Price (who is currently on the DL with elbow trouble) turned out fairly well for them. “When I look at our organization, our pitching depth today is much stronger than it was in ’15,” says Mozeliak. “Those are always difficult negotiations and tough decisions that you do agonize over, trying to decide what’s best because of the long-term ramifications of what it could mean to your franchise. It could be quite punitive if it doesn’t work out.”
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Cubs Claim Rene Rivera From Mets

By charliewilmoth | August 19, 2017 at 10:34am CDT

The Cubs have claimed catcher Rene Rivera off waivers from the Mets, the teams have announced. To clear space for Rivera on their roster, the Cubs have designated righty Aaron Brooks for assignment.

Rivera is the latest veteran to leave the Mets this month, following the trades of Jay Bruce, Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson. The 34-year-old Rivera has hit a modest .230/.278/.391 in 187 plate appearances this season and has never been an outstanding hitter, with a career .215/.266/.340 line in parts of nine big-league seasons with the Mariners, Twins, Padres and Rays in addition to the Mets. He has, however, long rated as a strong defender and framer, two skills the Cubs surely value. (The Cubs had, in fact, been connected to Rivera before they acquired Alex Avila last month.) With Willson Contreras on the DL with a hamstring strain, Rivera will presumably back up Avila. He is making $1.75MM this season and is eligible for free agency at season’s end.

The 27-year-old Brooks arrived from the Athletics organization prior to the 2016 season and initially looked like he would provide good starting pitching depth, but he missed most of that season with a hip issue and hasn’t been the same since, posting a 6.20 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 27 home runs allowed in 138 innings this season with Triple-A Iowa. He pitched for the Royals and A’s in 2015 but has not appeared in the big leagues since.

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5 Key Stories: Brewers Nab Walker, Dodgers Get Granderson

By charliewilmoth | August 19, 2017 at 10:14am CDT

Here are five top stories from throughout the week here at MLBTR.

"<strongBrewers acquire Neil Walker. The Brewers made a significant move to upgrade their infield, acquiring second baseman Neil Walker from the Mets (plus a bit of salary relief) for a player to be named later. Walker had previously cleared waivers, meaning the Mets were able to trade him to any team. The 31-year-old is batting 7-for-15 with a home run in his first four games with Milwaukee.

Dodgers acquire Curtis Granderson. The Mets had already moved Walker and Jay Bruce this month when they struck another deal Friday, sending Curtis Granderson to Los Angeles for cash or a player to be named. Granderson, who’s batting .228/.334/.481 with 19 homers this season, will join a Dodgers team that also includes fellow recent additions Yu Darvish, Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani. It remains to be seen how the Dodgers will use Granderson, as the team is currently loaded with potential outfield options.

Jered Weaver retires. Veteran righty and longtime Angel Jered Weaver hung up his spikes this week after a frustrating season with the Padres in which he struggled with hip troubles and made just nine starts. “While I’ve been working hard to get back on the mound, my body just will not allow me to compete like I want to,” Weaver said. Weaver finishes with a 3.63 ERA, 1,621 strikeouts and 150 wins in just over 2,000 career innings.

Astros acquire Tyler Clippard. The Astros acquired veteran righty Tyler Clippard from the White Sox for cash this week. It’s the second change of teams for Clippard in 2017, as he’d previously headed from the Yankees to the White Sox in the David Robertson / Todd Frazier / Tommy Kahnle trade. The Astros are also in the market for a starter and have discussed a deal for Justin Verlander, although those talks don’t currently seem to be active, and the team has downplayed the possibility that the team will make another big move before the end of the month.

White Sox extend Kenny Williams, Rick Hahn. This week it emerged that the White Sox extended the contracts of executive vice president Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn earlier this summer. The White Sox currently sit at 46-73 and in last place in the AL Central, but their front office has earned praise for a series of trades that has given the organization one of the game’s best minor-league systems.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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5 Key Stories

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MLBTR Mailbag: Lowrie, Bruce, Giants, Controllable Starters

By Jeff Todd | August 19, 2017 at 8:24am CDT

Thanks as always for your questions! If yours wasn’t selected this week, you can always pose it in one of our weekly chats: Steve Adams at 2pm CST on Tuesdays, Jason Martinez at 6:30pm CST on Wednesdays, and yours truly at 2pm CST on Thursdays.

Here are this week’s questions and answers:

Why is it so hard for the A’s to move Jed Lowrie? — Rene H.

Well, there has been a bit of a game of musical chairs in the second/third base market. The Red Sox went with Eduardo Nunez. The Nationals grabbed Howie Kendrick, who can also play outfield. The Brewers ended up with Neil Walker in August. Those deals filled some of the main needs out there, though there are at least a few teams that could still make a move. The Angels stand out; the Indians have looked in this area; and the Blue Jays could be a dark horse if they make a run.

But let’s suppose a few organizations are indeed still poking around on Lowrie. Those same teams will also have other options to consider. Ian Kinsler is now off the market after his waiver claim was revoked by the Tigers. But Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart are both pending free agents who could move. Yangervis Solarte may not clear waivers, but could be claimed and pursued. And Asdrubal Cabrera also represents a possibility.

Cabrera, like Lowrie, comes with a club option for 2018. In Lowrie’s case, it’s just a $6MM cost to keep him (against a $1MM buyout). He has surely played well enough to make that a decent asset to move over the winter. And perhaps Oakland isn’t all that anxious to press Franklin Barreto into everyday duty in the majors just yet. After all, he’s only 21, didn’t hit much in his brief debut, and has encountered a rising strikeout rate at Triple-A. Lowrie could help stabilize the infield the rest of the way or even in 2018, or he could still be flipped if a decent offer comes along.

How do you guys see the [free-agent] market for Jay Bruce developing? I have a hard time believing that a 30/31-year-old who has six seasons where he OPSed over .800 would have trouble locking down a fourth year at a $13MM AAV. — Alex W.

As Alex helpfully pointed out in his email, there are indeed quite a few corner outfielders that have landed free-agent contracts in that range. Recent deals that could work as comparables run from Nick Markakis (4/$44MM) and Josh Reddick (4/$52MM) up to Nick Swisher (4/$56MM) and Curtis Granderson (4/$60MM). Bruce is a plausible candidate to land in that general realm.

I do think Bruce is flying under the radar a bit, given the obvious appeal of his quality offensive output this year — .267/.334/.541 with 32 homers. It doesn’t hurt that he has turned things on thus far since going to the Indians, has finally reversed the abysmal defensive metrics, and is regarded as a top-shelf professional. The two lost seasons of 2014 and 2015 are hard to ignore entirely, and he has never hit lefties nearly so much as righties, but he has returned to his prior trajectory since and has been average at the plate when facing southpaws this season. Plus, there won’t be any draft compensation to contend with.

But where exactly he falls, and whether he gets a fourth year or instead takes a higher AAV over three, will depend upon market forces. J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton (if he opts out) would be the two top corner outfielders, but both are righty bats that would require very significant contracts. Granderson and Melky Cabrera will present alternatives for teams seeking lefty pop, but neither has quite Bruce’s present power and both are much older. All things considered, Bruce should be fairly well positioned.

I’m wondering if the Giants’ plan to re-tool, rather than rebuild, has a reasonable chance of success. Does SF have only two or three spots, like one outfielder and two pitchers, that will make the difference in being competitive? Or will the re-tooling need to involve more spots on the roster, like two outfielders, maybe an infielder (third base), and three or four pitchers? And are there players available in free-agency for them to do that? — Tim D.

Let’s start with the presumption that Johnny Cueto opts into the remainder of his deal. That would fill one of the rotation slots but also keeps a lot of cash on the books — over $150MM total already for 2018, with more than $100MM promised in each of the next two seasons. And the club will also have to consider what it’ll cost to keep Madison Bumgarner around past 2019.

Looking over the roster — see the current depth chart here — the Giants will face questions in a variety of areas. Third base is unresolved, the team needs at least one starting outfielder (a center-field-capable player would perhaps be preferred, bumping Denard Span to left), and several bench/platoon roles are open to question. The team will likely at least look into adding a starter, though it could choose instead to go with Matt Moore along with Ty Blach or another less-established pitcher to line up behind Cueto, Bumgarner, and Jeff Samardzija. Bullpens can always be improved, though the Giants can hope for a bounceback from Mark Melancon and continued performance from reclamation hit Sam Dyson in the late innings.

On the whole, then, perhaps a more dramatic roster overhaul isn’t really needed. Assuming the club is willing to spend up to, but not past, the $180MM-ish payroll it carried entering the current season, that leaves some room to add. But the long-term commitments and 2017 downturns certainly also speak in favor of exercising some caution. I’d expect a focus on striking shorter-term deals with veterans.

Possibilities at third could include Pablo Sandoval, Todd Frazier, and Yunel Escobar, or the Giants could go bigger and chase the still-youthful Mike Moustakas. In the outfield, Lorenzo Cain would be the top center-field target, though he’ll be entering his age-32 season and won’t be cheap. There are some interesting alternatives, including Carlos Gomez, Jon Jay, and Jarrod Dyson. It’s also possible the Giants could chase Bruce or another corner piece while adding a player like Austin Jackson to platoon with Span in center. And as ever, there are lots of different pitchers available at different price points should they look to add there.

Ultimately, there ought to be decent value available in the price range the Giants will be shopping. Whether that’ll work out or not … well, that’s dependent upon quite a few other factors and is tough to predict at this point.

Which young, controllable starters (like Chris Archer, for example) will potentially be available via trade this upcoming offseason? –Matt H.

Archer is certainly a good example of a guy who could be available and who’ll be asked about quite a lot. Depending upon how things end up for the Rays this year — currently, it’s not trending in the right direction — they may be more or less inclined to undertake a more dramatic move such as dealing the staff ace.

Generally, though, I’d expect the pickings to be slim. Several teams that sit in the bottom of the standings and have young arms don’t seem likely to move them. For instance, I don’t really expect the Mets (Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, etc.), Blue Jays (Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez), or Phillies (Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez) to be looking to deal young starters.

There are a few other names to watch, though. Michael Fulmer of the Tigers would figure to draw some of the most fervent interest, and Detroit has to be thinking creatively entering an offseason full of questions. The Pirates could decide that now’s the time to move Gerrit Cole, though he’ll only have two years of control remaining so may not really meet the parameters. Julio Teheran of the Braves will surely again be a topic of speculation, at least, and the Marlins will have to consider cashing in Dan Straily.

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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Kiermaier, Lester, Scherzer

By Jason Martinez | August 18, 2017 at 11:58pm CDT

IMPACT ROSTER MOVES

  • CHC: SP Jon Lester (shoulder fatigue) and RP Justin Grimm (finger infection) placed on 10-Day DL; RP Felix Peña and Rob Zastryzny recalled from minors. | Cubs Depth Chart
    • Mike Montgomery will move to the rotation while Lester is out.
  • CIN: OF Scott Schebler activated from 10-Day DL; SP Scott Feldman (knee inflammation) placed on 10-Day DL. | Reds Depth Chart
    • Schebler was not in the starting lineup on Friday.
    • No word on who will take Feldman’s rotation spot while he is out.
  • CLE: RP Andrew Miller activated from 10-Day DL; OF Abraham Almonte (strained hamstring) placed on 10-Day DL. | Indians Depth Chart
    • Austin Jackson is expected to make the majority of starts in LF while Almonte is out.
  • COL: SP Jeff Hoffman and INF Ryan McMahon optioned to minors; RP Scott Oberg and OF Mike Tauchman recalled from minors. | Rockies Depth Chart
    • Antonio Senzatela and Tyler Chatwood are candidates to take Hoffman’s rotation spot.
  • DET: SP Anibal Sanchez (strained hamstring) placed on 10-Day DL; INF/OF JaCoby Jones recalled from minors. | Tigers Depth Chart
    • Daniel Norris might return from the disabled list to take Sanchez’s rotation spot next week.
  • KCR: RP Joakim Soria (strained oblique) placed on 10-Day DL; RP Kevin McCarthy recalled from minors. | Royals Depth Chart
  • LAA: SP Andrew Heaney activated from 60-Day DL; SP Tyler Skaggs placed on Bereavement List. | Angels Depth Chart
    • Skaggs is scheduled to start on Monday.
  • LAD: OF Curtis Granderson acquired from New York Mets for player to be named later or cash considerations. | Dodgers Depth Chart
  • LAD: 1B Adrian Gonzalez activated from 60-Day DL; INF/OF Rob Segedin optioned to minors. | Dodgers Depth Chart
    • Gonzalez played 1B and batted 7th in Friday’s game. 
  • MIN: OF Robbie Grossman (fractured thumb) was placed on 10-Day DL; C/1B/OF Mitch Garver recalled from minors. | Twins Depth Chart
    • Eduardo Escobar was the DH and batted 6th in Friday’s game. He will likely get the majority of starts in Grossman’s place.
  • PHI: OF Odubel Herrera (strained hamstring) placed on 10-Day DL; corresponding move will be made prior to Saturday’s game. | Phillies Depth Chart
    • Cam Perkins played RF and batted 8th in Friday’s game versus a left-handed starter with Nick Williams taking Herrera’s spot in CF. 
  • STL: SP Adam Wainwright (elbow impingement) placed on 10-Day DL; RP Mike Mayers recalled from minors. | Cardinals Depth Chart 
    • Luke Weaver is expected to take Wainwright’s rotation spot.
    • Mayers was optioned to the minors following Friday’s game.
  • TBR: OF Kevin Kiermaier activated from 60-Day DL; OF Mallex Smith optioned to minors. | Rays Depth Chart 
    • Kiermaier played CF and batted 1st in Friday’s game.
  • WSH: SP Max Scherzer (neck inflammation) placed on 10-Day DL; corresponding move will be made prior to Saturday’s game. | Nationals Depth Chart

—

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

  • ARZ: SP Robbie Ray will be activated from 7-Day DL sometime next week, according to Nick Piecoro of AZ Central. | Diamondbacks Depth Chart
    • Ray made a rehab start on Thursday, so the earliest he would return is Tuesday August 22nd.
  • ATL: OF Matt Kemp will likely be activated from 10-Day DL on Saturday August 19th, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com. | Braves Depth Chart
  • CWS: SP Lucas Giolito will be recalled from minors on Monday August 21st, according to the team. | White Sox Depth Chart
  • MIL: SP Chase Anderson will be activated from 10-Day DL on Sunday August 20th, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. | Brewers Depth Chart
  • NYY: SP CC Sabathia will be activated from 10-Day DL on Saturday August 19th, according to Sweeny Murti of WFAN. | Yankees Depth Chart
  • PHI: SP Nick Pivetta will be likely recalled as the 26th man for the double-header on Tuesday August 22nd, according to Matt Gelb of the Philly Inquirer.  | Phillies Depth Chart
  • WSH: SP Stephen Strasburg will be activated from 10-Day DL on Saturday August 19th, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. | Nationals Depth Chart

—

MINOR TRANSACTIONS

  • ATL: INF/OF Danny Santana (strained quad) placed on 10-Day DL; 2B/OF Micah Johnson recalled from minors. | Braves Depth Chart
  • LAA: RP Noe Ramirez claimed off waivers from Boston Red Sox and optioned to minors. | Angels Depth Chart
  • MIL: C Stephen Vogt activated from 10-Day DL; C Andrew Susac (strained trapezius) placed on 10-Day DL. | Brewers Depth Chart
  • SDP: RP Wade LeBlanc (strained quad) placed on 10-Day DL; RP Steven Brault recalled from minors. | Pirates Depth Chart
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Daily Roster Roundup

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Offseason Primer: The New Qualifying Offer Rules

By Mark Polishuk | August 18, 2017 at 9:53pm CDT

Introduced as a more straightforward method of free agent compensation than the old Type A/Type B free agent designations, the qualifying offer has led to its own set of controversies over its five offseasons of existence.  Some players and agents felt that the attachment of a first-round draft pick to the signings of players who turned down the QO had an undue influence on the markets for these free agents, so it wasn’t any surprise that the collective bargaining agreement agreed upon between Major League Baseball and the MLBPA last December contained significant changes to the qualifying offer system.

Since the new CBA wasn’t ratified quickly enough for the new rules to come into effect last winter, the coming offseason will be our first look at the new (and, in theory, improved) qualifying offer system and its impact on the free agent class.  With fans of several non-contending teams already looking ahead to 2018, we’re due for a refresher on how the new QO process works and what it will mean for your favorite team’s efforts to retain players or pursue new ones on the open market.

At its heart, the qualifying offer remains the same — a one-year contract offered to an impending free agent who has been on that team’s roster for the entirety of the 2017 season.  (So, pending free agents like Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez or Jay Bruce cannot receive the QO since they were only acquired partway through the season.)  The one-year deal is worth the mean salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reported this year that the value will be $17.4MM.  With such a notable dollar figure involved, teams are still likely only to issue qualifying offers to the upper tier of free agent players, especially given the new CBA’s stricter luxury tax penalties.

Our first major difference is that a player who has been issued a qualifying offer during a past free agent stint is no longer eligible to receive another one.  For instance, the Tigers surrendered a draft pick when they signed Justin Upton two winters ago since Upton rejected the Padres’ qualifying offer.  If Upton decides to exercise his opt-out clause this offseason and hit the open market again, he is no longer eligible for the QO, and thus Detroit won’t get any draft compensation if the star outfielder signs elsewhere.  Upton is the most prominent player that will be impacted by this new rule, since of the past QO recipients who will or could be free agents this winter, Upton is the only one performing well enough to have been a lock for another qualifying offer this winter.

Teams have until five days after the conclusion of the World Series to issue qualifying offers to free agents, and these players will now have ten days to decide whether or not to accept (up from seven days in the previous CBA).  This gives players and their agents a bit of extra time to access the market and see if a larger deal if out there, or if the best bet is to take that ~$18MM payday and test free agency again in the 2018-19 offseason, hopefully on the heels of a better season.

If a player rejects the QO and goes on to sign with another team, here’s where the new rules differ greatly from the 2012-17 CBA.  In the last five years, a team with a player who rejected the QO would’ve received a compensatory draft pick between the first and second rounds of the following year’s amateur draft, while the team who signed the QO player would’ve given up their first-round pick (unless their selection fell within the top 10 picks in the draft, in which case the signing team would’ve surrendered their next-highest choice).

Now, however, the new rules factor in contract size and team situation.  Here are the compensatory scenarios for a team that issued a qualifying offer to a player and saw him sign elsewhere…

  • If the team was not a revenue sharing recipient or the free agent signed for less than $50MM guaranteed, the team will receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place just prior to the draft’s third round.  (The Competitive Balance process itself underwent some changes in the new CBA.)  This is essentially the “default” compensation for teams losing QO free agents, since most teams won’t meet either of the following two sets of criteria.
  • If the team losing the player received revenue sharing in the previous season and the free agent signed a deal at least $50MM in guaranteed money, the team will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the draft.  According to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (hat tip to MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince), 16 teams are revenue-sharing recipients and could qualify for the higher pick — the Astros, Athletics, Braves, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals and Twins.  (It’s worth noting that the new CBA specifies that Oakland will be gradually phased out as a revenue-sharing recipient over the next two seasons.)
  • If the team paid the luxury tax in the previous season, the team will receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round of the draft.

Furthermore, there are also new rules for a team that signs a free agent who declined a qualifying offer…

  • If the signing team received revenue sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold in the previous season, the team only has to surrender its third-highest pick in the next draft.  If this team signed more than one QO free agent, it would give up its fourth-highest pick for the second signing, fifth-highest pick for a third signing, etc.
  • If the signing team contributes to revenue sharing but didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold in the previous season, the team gives up its second-highest draft pick and $500K of international bonus pool money in the next int’l signing period (which opens on July 2).  If this team signed more than one QO free agent, it would give up its third-highest pick for the second signing and so forth, though it doesn’t appear as if that team would lose any additional international pool money would also be involved.
  • If the signing team paid the luxury tax in the previous season, the team gives up its second-highest and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM of international bonus pool money in the next int’l signing period (which opens on July 2).  According to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, if this team signed more than one QO free agent, it would give its up third-highest and sixth-highest picks for the second signing, and so forth.  Five teams look to be paying the luxury tax this season — the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers and Nationals.

The old qualifying offer system’s effect on mid-tier free agents and how teams and players learned to adapt to the system evolved over all five offseasons of its existence, so it may be some years yet before we see how these new rules impact the free agent market.  On the surface, the new rules look like a boon for players, as the new costs for signing a QO free agent aren’t as punitive as the loss of a first-round draft pick.

Likewise, teams are also likely to feel freer about making signings.  The loss of international pool money isn’t likely to be too big a deterrent. (For a team like the Orioles that seemingly doesn’t care about int’l spending, it’ll basically be no deterrent at all.)  It also seems as though teams that lose their bonus money to sign a QO free agent can recoup those funds in trades, since international bonus slots can be dealt.  What happens to the international pool money forfeited by teams for signing a QO free agent, you might ask?  It will actually go towards funding other teams’ international signings; the money will be evenly distributed among the bonus pools of the teams that didn’t give up that $500K-$1MM to land a qualifying offer free agent.

As we saw at the last trade deadline, however, the most interesting wrinkle to the new rules is that teams may now also be more open to dealing pending free agents that likely would’ve normally been retained and issued qualifying offers.  The Rangers, for instance, are a team that contributes to revenue sharing but isn’t over the luxury tax limit, so they would’ve received only a pick after Compensatory Round B if Yu Darvish had turned down the QO and signed elsewhere this winter.  Since the trade package the Dodgers offered for Darvish was much more valuable than just a single sandwich pick, it made sense for Texas to accept a deal. That might have been a closer call if they still had a first-round compensation pick coming their way.

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MLBTR Originals

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Nationals Place Max Scherzer On 10-Day DL

By Jeff Todd | August 18, 2017 at 8:22pm CDT

The Nationals have placed ace righty Max Scherzer on the 10-day DL, per a club announcement. He was scratched from his start tonight after experiencing inflammation on the left side of his neck.

It’s somewhat alarming to hear that Scherzer again wasn’t able to go after leaving a prior start with neck problems. That prior bout with soreness occurred to the other side of his neck and didn’t prevent him from making another strong outing in between.

The lingering issue is of added concern with the Nats winding him for what the club hopes will be a deep postseason run. Washington is set to welcome back Stephen Strasburg to the rotation tomorrow, but won’t see those two together for at least a few more weeks.

That said, for the time being it’s only clear that Scherzer will miss tonight’s start and one more scheduled outing. The placement was backdated to August 15th, so Scherzer can return as soon as the 25th.

To this point, Scherzer seemed to be cruising to a repeat of his 2016 NL Cy Young Award. Over 160 1/3 frames, he has worked to a 2.25 ERA with 12.4 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. He has also continued the swinging-strike surge he has shown since landing in D.C., inducing whiffs on over 15% of his pitches for the third consecutive season.

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Washington Nationals Max Scherzer

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Top 25 August Trade Candidates

By Steve Adams | August 18, 2017 at 8:10pm CDT

Since last week’s iteration of this list ran, the Mets have traded Jay Bruce (No. 2) to the Indians and Neil Walker (No. 2o) to the Brewers. Meanwhile, the White Sox traded Tyler Clippard (No. 7) to the Astros, and Ian Kinsler (No. 12) was pulled off waivers by the Tigers following a claim from an unknown club. Marco Estrada (No. 1) also appears to have been pulled back, as it’s now been more than 48 hours since he was reportedly claimed, yet he remains with the Blue Jays.

Further mixing up the list of trade candidates is the fact that the Angels and Twins have gone on prolonged winning streaks, with Anaheim seizing a Wild Card spot and Minnesota sitting directly behind them. With both clubs looking like much more plausible playoff contenders, at least for now, their movable assets slide down the list or drop off entirely.

1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Mets: The Mets have been able to unload the vast majority of their short-term veterans and figure to continue exploring possibilities. Newsday’s Marc Carig reported last week that they’ll consider just picking up Cabrera’s affordable 2018 option — not a bad plan given the infield uncertainty they’ve faced in 2017 — but an affordable, versatile, reasonably productive switch-hitter could appeal to a contender before Aug. 31.

2. Curtis Granderson, Mets: The Grandy Man has four homers in the past week, and he’s raked at a .273/.395/.596 clip in his past 250 plate appearances. He’s earning $15MM this season, but he’s revered for his leadership and clubhouse presence. That bat should help a contender, and the Mets should be motivated to find a trading partner.

3. Brandon Phillips, Braves: Phillips has cleared waivers and has hit fairly well in 2017. He’s playing third base now, adding to his versatility, and the Reds are on the hook for $13MM of his $14MM salary, so he’ll be cheap for any contender. There aren’t many clubs looking at second base upgrades, though, and the Angels’ interest is reportedly “limited.” (Per FanRag’s Jon Heyman)

4. Zack Cozart, Reds: There just aren’t many contenders seeking shortstop upgrades, and the Reds could make Cozart a qualifying offer if no trade materializes. If the Blue Jays go on a winning streak to better position themselves for the Wild Card, they’d make sense on paper. The Rays and Royals make some sense, too, and injuries can always create new trade partners.

5. Jed Lowrie, Athletics: Lowrie can play anywhere in the infield, he’s hitting well, and he has a reasonable club option for the 2018 season. There’s likely a fair bit of overlap with his market and with Cabrera. I think he’d be a great fit for the Angels, but the Halos may not want to send minor league talent to a division rival.

6. Drew Storen, Reds: Storen was absolutely rocked by the Cubs earlier this week, so his numbers don’t look as sharp as they did when last week’s list was published. That said, he’s a veteran reliever that can miss a few bats and is earning a modest $3MM base salary. He’s the type of low-cost pickup that can help a fringe Wild Card contender without requiring much of a minor league sacrifice.

7. Jim Johnson, Braves: It’s not fully clear that Johnson is even available. There’s been no word on the result of his placement on waivers back on Aug. 2, so he might’ve been claimed and pulled back. But if he passed through waivers, he’s a veteran ’pen arm with a 55-to-17 K/BB ratio and a 48.1 percent grounder rate in 48 innings. He’s signed through 2018 as well.

8. Rajai Davis, Athletics: Davis is hitting .333/.387/.536 in the second half and has knocked lefties around at a .270/.336/.420 pace. That productivity and his still-excellent speed can make him an ideal reserve/platoon outfielder for a contender’s bench. Speculatively speaking, a reunion with the Indians could make sense in light of Bradley Zimmer’s struggles and Michael Brantley’s injury.

9. Jhoulys Chacin, Padres: Chacin isn’t exciting, but he’s been a durable source of useful innings for a bad Padres team. San Diego GM A.J. Preller says he isn’t willing to move Chacin for a non-prospect just to shed a bit of salary, so it’ll take an offer of at least a mildly intriguing prospect to make something happen.

10. Brad Ziegler, Marlins: Ziegler has fired six scoreless innings with a 77.3 percent ground-ball rate since coming off the disabled list earlier this month. The Marlins would probably need to pay down next year’s $9MM salary a ways, but Ziegler’s track record is excellent and should lead to some interest.

11. Rene Rivera, Mets: A free agent at season’s end, Rivera could be an upgrade over the backup catcher on several contending clubs. He’s known as a strong defender, and he has a bit of power in his bat as well.

12. Matt Joyce, Athletics: Matt Joyce is doing Matt Joyce things this season. That is to say, he’s drawing tons of walks, hitting for power against right-handed pitching (.235/.338/.463, 16 homers) and playing unspectacular but passable defense in the outfield corners. He’s signed for $6MM next season, so he could be a bench piece/platoon piece beyond this year.

13. R.A. Dickey, Braves: Dickey has been an effective enough innings eater that the Braves are reportedly at least considering his 2018 option for $8MM. His peripheral stats don’t mesh with his 3.89 ERA, but he has a long history of outperforming ERA estimators.

14. Santiago Casilla, Athletics: Casilla’s velocity has held up even at age 37, and he’s still averaging 8.9 K/9. But, his walk rate has spiked as his ground-ball rate has plummeted. He’s also been homer-prone the past two seasons despite cavernous home parks, which, paired with next year’s $5.5MM salary, will likely give other clubs pause.

15. Clayton Richard, Padres: Richard is a ground-ball machine with an uninspiring 4.84 ERA but considerably better marks in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics. He won’t pitch in a playoff rotation but could be another lefty in a postseason ’pen. And, there are several teams that could use cheap innings for the balance of the regular season. He’s only earning $1.75MM, so any club can afford him.

16. Miguel Gonzalez & Derek Holland, White Sox: Neither member of this duo has pitched well, but they’ve both cleared waivers and are on a team that is trading everything that isn’t nailed down. Gonzalez has been the better of the two, but Holland could potentially be a lefty piece in a contender’s bullpen. They’re earning nearly identical $5.9MM (Gonzalez) and $6MM (Holland) salaries.

18. Juan Nicasio, Joaquin Benoit & Daniel Hudson, Pirates: The Bucs are now 5.5 games out of the NL Central lead, and while it’s not realistic to expect them to put together an Andrew McCutchen trade in August, any of these veteran relievers could conceivably be moved if the Pirates slip further out of contention. Nicasio’s been the best of the bunch by a wide margin and would surely be claimed if the Bucs put him through waivers (which may already have happened).

21. Kurt Suzuki, Braves: The 33-year-old is hitting as well as he ever has, with a .258/.335/.500 slash and a dozen home runs in just 207 plate appearances. (His career high of 15 long balls came in 614 plate appearances way back in 2009.) Suzuki surely can’t keep up quite that power output and is not well-loved for his defensive game, but he’s an affordable, highly regarded clubhouse presence who has been targeted for stretch runs by contenders in the past.

22. Junichi Tazawa, Marlins: Frankly, it’s tough to see much interest in Tazawa, who has pitched poorly and is owed $7MM in 2018. If the Fish eat nearly all of that money, perhaps they could find some team willing to buy low. It’s not likely, but Miami would surely love to shed even a portion of this contract.

23. Jeff Samardzija, Giants: Shark’s contract would likely clear waivers (if it hasn’t already), but he was adamant about wanting to stay in San Francisco prior to the deadline. He has a no-trade clause that would allow him to block deals to 21 teams. It’s not likely, but one of the teams to which he cannot block a trade could conceivably make an effort.

24. Justin Verlander, Tigers: Talk about Verlander will persist into the offseason, but I can’t envision him moving anywhere this month. As is the case in previous weeks, he’s here because he’d be a difference-maker on a contender and is technically available, but there’s no real expectation that he moves.

25. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: Everything said about Verlander applies even more emphatically to Stanton. The Marlins may engage in trade talks this offseason, and he’s cleared waivers so they could get some offers in August, but Stanton is the face of the franchise and owed $295MM following this season. He also has a full no-trade clause. There are too many hurdles to realistically expect anything to happen this month, but the faint glimmer of a chance and the fact that there will no doubt be rumors lands him on the final spot of this list.

Injured

Scott Feldman (Reds), Daniel Nava (Phillies), Ian Krol (Braves), Johnny Cueto (Giants), Erick Aybar (Padres), Wade LeBlanc (Pirates)

Claimed, Pulled Back From Waivers

Ian Kinsler (Tigers), Marco Estrada (Blue Jays)

Also Considered

J.A. Happ & Jose Bautista (Blue Jays); Matt Kemp & Nick Markakis (Braves); Denard Span & Nick Hundley (Giants); A.J. Ellis & Dee Gordon (Marlins); Darren O’Day, Zach Britton & Seth Smith (Orioles); Yangervis Solarte & Craig Stammen (Padres), Hyun Soo Kim (Phillies); Andrew Cashner & Tyson Ross (Rangers); James Shields & Mike Pelfrey (White Sox)

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MLBTR Originals Top Ten Trade Deadline Candidates

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Trevor Rosenthal Seeking Second Opinion For Ligament Issue

By Jeff Todd | August 18, 2017 at 4:54pm CDT

TODAY: A surgical approach is on the table for Rosenthal, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports on Twitter. Rosenthal is set to receive a second opinion on how best to deal with the “stability of his ligament,” per the report.

It certainly sounds as if a Tommy John procedure is at least a possibility. Even if it isn’t ultimately pursued, a rehab course for UCL damage typically involves a fairly lengthy rest and rehab program. Were Rosenthal to require TJ surgery, he’d almost certainly be non-tendered this fall; 2018 is his final season of arbitration eligibility. And avoiding the knife would still seemingly leave it uncertain whether he’ll be able to return this season.

YESTERDAY: The Cardinals have placed reliever Trevor Rosenthal on the 10-day DL with what the team is calling right posterior elbow irritation, per an announcement. Young righty Luke Weaver has been recalled to take his spot on the active roster.

Rosenthal had recently regained the team’s closer role, turning in quality results as the Cards surged in the standings. But the hard-throwing righty left last night’s outing after exhibiting diminished velocity, with indications at the time that he was experiencing tightness in his pitching arm.

The 27-year-old hurler has turned in a bounceback year after a rough 2016 campaign that was marred by arm problems. Through 47 2/3 innings to date, he carries a 3.40 ERA and has racked up 14.3 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9. Rosenthal has not only reversed last year’s walk problems, but has worked at a career-high 98.9 mph and generated a personal-best 15.9% swinging-strike rate.

While any elbow problems are of concern, the outlook on Rosenthal remains unclear at this point. Certainly, the Cardinals will hope that he can recover after a relatively brief DL stint and return to the pen down the stretch.

After all, St. Louis remains in the hunt for the NL Central title and it’s a difficult time to find a quality replacement via trade. The team could return Seung-hwan Oh to closing duties, give lefty Tyler Lyons a shot, or utilize a committee to finish out games. Internal solutions will still leave the club down a late-inning arm, though Weaver certainly represents a quality new addition to the unit.

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St. Louis Cardinals Luke Weaver Trevor Rosenthal

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