Archives for September 2019

NL Notes: Carpenter, Phillies, Pirates, Cubs

By Connor Byrne | September 19, 2019 at 12:26am CDT

The Cardinals look to be on their way to an NL Central title, but their 2019 success has come in spite of an uncharacteristically pedestrian year from third baseman Matt Carpenter. With the Cardinals trying to hold on in their division, Carpenter has taken a backseat to rookie Tommy Edman at the hot corner. While Carpenter did start there Wednesday in the Cardinals’ win over the Nationals, Edman has made twice as many starts this month (12 to six). Carpenter discussed his decrease in playing time with Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, acknowledging that Edman’s “got to play every day.” Although Carpenter went on to admit that dropping in the pecking order has been difficult, he added: “I understand part of what’s happening. Guys have played well and deserve to be in there. We’re winning and, at the end of the day, that’s ultimately what’s most important.” There’s still time for Carpenter to reemerge this year, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Cardinals handle him in the offseason if they’re convinced Edman’s the answer at third. A trade would be tough to put together, as Carpenter has two guaranteed years and $39MM coming his way after signing an extension in April. The three-time All-Star’s deal also includes a no-trade clause.

Phillies Will Pursue Realmuto Extension In Offseason

By Connor Byrne and Steve Adams | September 18, 2019 at 10:47pm CDT

Although the Phillies are hanging in the National League wild-card race as time runs out in the regular season, it seems fair to say this year hasn’t quite gone according to plan for the club. After missing the playoffs for the seventh straight time in 2018, the Phillies reeled in more established talent than anyone over the winter, with star catcher J.T. Realmuto among several big names the team added. Some of those pickups haven’t produced as hoped, which helps explain why the Phillies are 3 1/2 games back, but Realmuto has more than held up his end of the bargain.

Acquired from the division-rival Marlins last February, Realmuto has been the game’s foremost backstop for the second straight season. The 28-year-old hasn’t been as formidable at the plate as he was in 2018, but his .277/.328/.496 line with 25 home runs in 576 PA is well above average for his position. And when the athletic Realmuto has gotten on, he has graded as one of FanGraphs’ premier base runners.

Of course, Realmuto’s value extends well beyond what he’s capable of doing on offense. He’s also a world-class defender, one who has thrown out an eye-popping 43-of-91 would-be base stealers this year. Realmuto’s 47 percent caught-stealing rate is good for first in the game, while he comes in third overall in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.

The all-around package Realmuto has given the Phillies this year has been worth 5.7 fWAR/4.4 bWAR, and it’s possible he’ll draw some NL MVP consideration as a result. Regardless, the Phillies love what they’ve seen, and they’re hopeful their union with Realmuto will last for a while. General manager Matt Klentak confirmed as much as a guest on MLB Network reporter Jon Heyman’s podcast.

Asked if the Phillies will work to extend Realmuto, Klentak told Heyman: “I think it’s fair to speculate that that’ll be one of our offseason priorities this year,” adding: “We hope he’s a guy who’ll be wearing a Phillies uniform for a long, long time. It’s something we”ll address this offseason, and hopefully we’ll be able to line up. We’ll see.”

Klentak also heaped praise on the well-rounded Realmuto for his contributions, saying: “There’s really nothing on the field that this guy can’t do. He has the best foot speed of any catcher in baseball — he doesn’t run like a catcher at all — he hustles all the time. He’s a really good fit for our city, with his style of play. In the second half, he’s been on fire at that plate. He was maybe more neutral in the first half, but in the second half he’s carried us at times. And obviously the defense is probably the separator. Not only the framing improvements, but also his ability to gun down runners. It’s a joke how good this guy is behind the plate — how quick he gets rid of the ball and how frequently he’s putting it right on the bag for our middle infielders to drop the tag down.”

It’s clear Philadelphia’s aim is to lock up Realmuto, though it’s not at immediate risk of seeing him walk. He’ll be controllable for another year via arbitration, where he’ll surely get a sizable raise on this season’s $5.9MM extension if the two sides don’t line up on a new deal. Realmuto, for his part, already indicated back in June that he’d be open to an extension. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained then, Realmuto shouldn’t have difficulty landing a lucrative contract of at least four years.

Craig Kimbrel Nearing Return

By Connor Byrne | September 18, 2019 at 10:06pm CDT

WEDNESDAY: The Cubs expect Kimbrel to return Thursday or Friday, according to Maddon (via Wittenmyer).

MONDAY: Winners of five consecutive games, the Cubs have sizzled over the past several days as they attempt to earn their fifth straight playoff berth. A few of those victories came in blowout fashion, which means Chicago has largely been able to get by without the services of injured closer Craig Kimbrel. The club probably won’t be able to cruise to all of its wins over the next couple weeks, though, making it imperative for Kimbrel to return. It appears that’s close to happening, as president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and manager Joe Maddon suggested Monday that Kimbrel could be back for the Cubs’ crucial series against the division-rival Cardinals this weekend, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. In the meantime, he’ll throw a simulated game Tuesday.

The Cubs have been sans Kimbrel since he landed on the injured list Sept. 5 (retroactive to Sept. 1) with right elbow inflammation. The normally stellar Kimbrel had endured a rough season even before then, as he surrendered 12 earned runs on 18 hits and 11 walks (with 26 strikeouts) over 19 innings.

The 5.68 ERA, 6.64 FIP, 5.21 BB/9 and 2.84 HR/9 Kimbrel have posted this year aren’t the type of numbers the Cubs had in mind when they signed the 31-year-old to a three-year, $43MM guarantee in June, thus ending a long standoff in free agency between him and the league. At that point, Kimbrel was coming off yet another more-than-respectable season. The former Brave, Padre and Red Sox entered 2019 with a 2.04 ERA/2.13 FIP, 14.58 K/9, 3.52 BB/9 and a .67 HR/9 across 551 2/3 lifetime frames.

With the Cubs just a game up on the Brewers for the NL’s second wild-card spot and two back of the Cards in the NL Central, it would be a boon for a wobbly bullpen if Kimbrel were to revisit his vintage form as September nears a conclusion. Otherwise, more blowups from the Cubs’ prized summer signing down the stretch could help lead to a premature ending to their season.

Health Notes: Hill, Pham, Nats, Padres

By Connor Byrne | September 18, 2019 at 10:02pm CDT

Let’s check in on a few notable health situations from around the majors…

Dodgers southpaw Rich Hill’s strained left MCL looked like a possible season-ender when it happened last week, but the 39-year-old will manage to rejoin the club before the playoffs. The plan is for Hill to take a major league mound again next Tuesday, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tweets. Although he has missed a substantial amount of time this year, Hill has yet again been one of the Dodgers’ most effective starters in 2019. It’s unclear how much length he’ll be able to give the team for the rest of the season, though. Manager Dave Roberts told Gurnick and other reporters that the Dodgers’ pitching situation for Game 4 of the NLDS – which Hill had been lined up to start – looks “cloudy.” The team expects to take an “unconventional” route with its pitching staff in that contest, Roberts added. Of course, if the Dodgers sweep their first-round opponent in three games, it’ll prove to be a moot point.
If the Rays weren’t in the American League playoff race, banged up outfielder Tommy Pham would “one thousand percent” have shut it down for the season by now, he said (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Pham’s dealing with injuries to his right hand and elbow that don’t figure to heal until the offseason, and he hasn’t been a consistent presence in the Rays’ lineup lately as a result. But Pham has nonetheless been productive in his recent appearances and throughout the season, as he owns a .276/.373/.455 line with 20 home runs and 22 stolen bases (25 attempts) in 616 plate appearances.
Nationals catcher Kurt Suzuki has been out with right elbow troubles since Sept. 7, and a return still doesn’t look imminent. While Suzuki is able to hit and catch again, he remains “days away” from receiving clearance to throw, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes. Suzuki seems optimistic he’ll be back sometime soon, but meanwhile, the playoff-contending Nats will continue to rely almost exclusively on Yan Gomes behind the plate.
The Padres have shut 20-year-old reliever Andres Munoz down for the season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. The rookie righty tossed a professional-high 58 2/3 innings this season between the majors and minors, more than doubling the previous best of 24 2/3 he logged at the lower levels a year ago. Munoz impressed in 23 frames with the Padres this season, as he notched a 3.91 ERA/3.17 FIP with 11.74 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9. Plus, as Acee points out, Munoz’s average fastball velocity of 99.9 mph sits second in the league.

Poll: AL Cy Young Favorite

By Connor Byrne | September 18, 2019 at 8:51pm CDT

We’re obviously not going to see a repeat Cy Young winner in the American League this year. Rays left-hander Blake Snell took home the award a season ago, but his output has fallen off somewhat since 2018, and he just returned from a several-week absence anyway. There’s another Ray, right-hander Charlie Morton, who may have a case to rack up some votes this season, but it looks as if the winner will be one of his ex-Astros teammates.

Righty aces Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander have arguably outdone every other AL pitcher this year. The numbers entering Wednesday’s action bear it out, as you’ll see below…

ERA – Verlander: 2.50 (first in the AL); Cole: 2.62 (second)
Innings: Verlander: 212 (first); Cole: 192 1/3 (fifth)
Strikeouts per nine: Cole: 13.66 (first); Verlander: 12.01 (second)
K/BB ratio: Verlander: 7.08 (first); Cole: 6.49 (second)
Wins – Verlander: 19 (first); Cole: 17 (second)
bWAR – Verlander: 7.8 (second); Cole: 6.0 (fourth)
fWAR – Cole: 6.5 (first); Verlander: 6.1 (tied for second)

Some of those figures have already changed tonight, as Cole is in the midst of a lights-out showing against the Rangers. As of this writing, the 29-year-old has fired six shutout innings of two-hit ball with eight strikeouts and zero walks. Cole now has exactly 300 punchouts on the season, putting him in fairly exclusive company.

Based on Cole’s enormous K total and the rest of the statistics above, it would be tough to make a case against him or Verlander. However, two other Texas-based starters – Mike Minor and Lance Lynn – have also enjoyed elite seasons. Minor ranks first in the league in pitcher bWAR, in fact, with Lynn not far behind. Despite that, the two Rangers are clearly facing long odds if they’re going to earn Cy Young honors over either of the Astros. Likewise, although Morton, Indians starter Shane Bieber and even Athletics closer Liam Hendriks have arguably placed themselves in the race with their marvelous performances, it’s improbable anyone from that trio will come out on top.

A first-time Cy Young win for Cole in 2019 would come at an especially opportune time for him, as he’s under two months from reaching free agency. Cole figures to rake in the largest contract on the open market then – perhaps a deal in excess of $200MM – and it wouldn’t exactly harm his bargaining power to collect the game’s most prestigious honor for a pitcher in the meantime. The 36-year-old Verlander has surprisingly won the Cy Young just once in what should be a Hall of Fame career. The former Tiger also grabbed the AL MVP that season (2011), and though it was eight years ago, Verlander hasn’t slowed down to any noticeable degree since.

Cole, Verlander and the rest only have a couple weeks left to make their Cy Young arguments on the mound. As things stand, which pitcher do you think is in the lead?

(Poll link for app users)

Howie Kendrick Is Still Killing The Ball

By Connor Byrne | September 18, 2019 at 7:58pm CDT

It was June 11 that I wrote a piece titled “Howie Kendrick Is Killing The Ball.” At that point in 2019, the veteran National had quietly been one of the majors’ most effective hitters of the season. Kendrick was then the proud owner of a .333/.376/.604 line with a 149 wRC+ in 178 plate appearances, and though there may have been skepticism in regards to the 36-year-old’s early season excellence, he hasn’t let up over the past two months. The fact that Kendrick hasn’t slowed down has helped Washington rebound from a forgettable start to become the favorite to take the top wild-card spot in the National League.

Although the Nationals lost to the Cardinals on Wednesday, they’re still a game up on the league’s fourth seed. And Kendrick contributed even in defeat, chipping in a pair of hits in four at-bats and raising his season line to .343/.393/.577 through 346 PA. Among hitters who have walked to the plate 300-plus times this year, the infielder ranks second in average, 13th in on-base percentage and 15th in slugging percentage. His wRC+, 146, ties him with teammate/superstar Juan Soto for 13th in the league and also places him among the likes of Mets NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso and Braves standout Freddie Freeman.

Kendrick’s current production is especially surprising coming from someone who has been closer to an average offensive player than an elite one throughout his career. That’s not to say the former Angel, Dodger and Phillie hasn’t been a useful player since he debuted in 2006 – he has, evidenced in part by his 32.5 rWAR/31.1 fWAR – but Kendrick has clearly found another gear this season.

As was the case a couple months ago, Kendrick’s 2019 output doesn’t look like a fluke. On the contrary, he has continued to make more damaging contact than just about every hitter in the game. Kendrick’s .424 expected weighted on-base average is tied for third in the sport with Astros Rookie of the Year-to-be Yordan Alvarez. The only players better in that category have been the Angels’ Mike Trout and the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger, two serious MVP candidates. Kendrick has been similarly tremendous in other key Statcast categories, as he sits in baseball’s 94th percentile in average exit velocity (92.2 mph), its 97th percentile in hard-hit rate (50.2 percent), its 99th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.608) and its 100th percentile in expected batting average (.330). Can’t argue with that.

So why the newfound dominance from a player who entered the year as a lifetime .291/.334/.422 hitter? An increased emphasis on power has been key. The right-handed Kendrick has hit more fly balls and gone to left field more than at just about any other point since he came into the majors. Those factors have helped produce 16 home runs, Kendrick’s second-highest total, and a personal-best .234 ISO that’s almost 100 points above his career mark of .137. And Kendrick hasn’t sold out for his uptick in power by striking out more. Instead, he has fanned in a career-low 13.7 percent of plate appearances, swung and missed a personal-best 7.3 percent of the time and posted a matching walk percentage of 7.3. For reference, Kendrick came into 2019 with strikeout, swinging-strike and walk rates of 17.4, 9.8 and 5.3, respectively.

If there’s one way to attempt to pooh-pooh Kendrick’s numbers, it’s by citing his sky-high batting average on balls in play. On paper, it would be difficult to count on Kendrick replicating his .357 mark in that department in future years – especially considering the former stolen base threat lacks speed nowadays. That said, Kendrick has been known for running unsustainable-looking BABIPs throughout his career (.341 lifetime), so it would seem unwise to expect the mark to dramatically plummet going forward.

With just under two weeks left in the regular season, it’s apparent Kendrick is going to wrap up the campaign with pristine production. Whenever it does end for the potentially playoff-bound Nationals, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them make an earnest effort to keep Kendrick in the fold heading into 2020. The free agent-to-be is just a year removed from suffering a catastrophic injury – a ruptured right Achilles – but Kendrick now looks better than ever. Even though he’s an aging player in a game that’s becoming increasingly younger, Kendrick shouldn’t have difficulty finding a guaranteed contract beyond this season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blake Treinen Diagnosed With Stress Reaction In His Back

By Steve Adams | September 18, 2019 at 7:21pm CDT

The Athletics are shutting down right-hander Blake Treinen for the remainder of the regular season due to a back issue, manager Bob Melvin announced after today’s game (Twitter links via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos tweets that Treinen has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his back.

The issue has been bothering Treinen for the past three weeks, it seems, and it’s reached the point where he requires some downtime. It’s worth noting that the team has not yet formally ruled Treinen out for a postseason run, though that’ll surely depend on how his back responds to this shutdown. In his absence, the A’s are moving Chris Bassitt into a long relief/piggyback role, per Slusser, and seemingly going with a rotation consisting of Sean Manaea, Mike Fiers, Tanner Roark, Brett Anderson and Homer Bailey.

It’s been an ugly season for Treinen, who stepped up as one of baseball’s premier relievers almost immediately upon being traded to Oakland at the 2017 deadline. The now-31-year-old posted 38 innings of 2.13 ERA ball with a 42-to-12 K/BB ratio down the stretch for Oakland in ’17 before turning in a ridiculous 0.78 ERA (1.82 FIP) with 11.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent ground-ball rate in 80 1/3 innings last year.

Treinen, however, lost his grip on the closer’s role in 2019 and has generally struggled since a late-April meltdown against in Toronto. His regular season will come to a close with a 4.91 ERA (5.14 FIP, 5.02 xFIP), 9.1 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 1.38 HR/9 and a 42.8 percent grounder rate. Treinen’s average velocity, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate have all trended sharply in the wrong direction, leaving the A’s with somewhat of a decision in the offseason; he’s due a raise on this year’s $6.4MM salary in his final offseason of arbitration eligibility. For a team with the type of payroll constraints the Athletics face each year, that could be viewed as a steep price to pay for a rebound candidate.

The Athletics, now 92-61 on the season, have won eight of their past 10 games and now hold a 2.5-game lead on the top Wild Card spot in the American League. There’s still time for the Rays and/or Indians to overtake them, but the A’s are in a fairly commanding spot with regard to the AL Wild Card race at this point. Their schedule the rest of the way features three home games against the Rangers, two on the road against the Angels and four on the road in Seattle.

Latest On Ketel Marte

By Jeff Todd | September 18, 2019 at 6:10pm CDT

6:10pm: Marte is being hobbled a bit by some inflammation, tweets Buchanan. He’ll also undergo a CT scan that the club has deemed “precautionary” in nature tomorrow.

7:38am: Breakout Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte was pulled from last night’s game after experiencing back stiffness, as Zach Buchanan of The Athletic was among those to cover (Twitter links). He’ll undergo an MRI today.

There’s no realistic chance at this point for the Arizona organization to complete a surprising run back to the postseason. But any miracle outcome would likely involve Marte going wild (among other things).

While it’s safe to say the D-Backs won’t sneak into the Wild Card spot, they would no doubt like to finish off the year with a winning record. If Marte is sidelined, it’d be a bit of a disappointing way to finish out the season.

At this point, there’s certainly no reason to believe Marte is dealing with an injury that will impact his future. Unless that changes, this issue won’t put a damper on a stunning 2019 campaign.

Marte, who’ll soon turn 26, has posted a whopping .329/.389/.592 batting line with 32 homers and ten steals on the year. With high-quality up-the-middle defensive work and excellent baserunning mixed in, he has played at about a 7-WAR clip.

It’d be prudent to bake in some anticipated regression when considering Marte’s future. But that still leaves an entirely exciting outlook. Fortunately for the Snakes, they’ve already locked him up to a low-obligation contract that gives the club control through the 2024 season. That pact now looks to be among the most valuable contractual assets in all of baseball.

Aaron Sanchez May Not Be Ready For Start Of 2020 Season

By Steve Adams | September 18, 2019 at 6:01pm CDT

Details surrounding Aaron Sanchez’s shoulder surgery last week remain unusually sparse, but Astros manager A.J. Hinch indicated to reporters today that Sanchez’s rehab process could carry into the 2020 season (Twitter link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).

The uncertainty surrounding Sanchez’s readiness for the 2020 season only further muddies the Astros’ decision on whether to tender him a contract this winter. The 27-year-old Sanchez was a paid a relatively modest $3.9MM salary in 2019 and struggled when healthy enough to take the ball, so his forthcoming arbitration raise will be anything but exorbitant. But, if the Astros are concerned that the right-hander will miss a substantial portion of the 2020 campaign, then it’s possible they could simply move on. Doing so just months after trading Derek Fisher to acquire Sanchez and Joe Biagini from the Blue Jays certainly wouldn’t be an ideal outcome, but spending on a player whose health outlook is cloudy enough could potentially prove more detrimental yet.

There’s reason for the Astros to roll the dice on Sanchez, of course. Although he’s been consistently plagued by fingernail and blister issues in recent seasons, he was excellent in Toronto as recently as 2016, when he pitched 192 innings of 3.00 ERA ball with 7.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and an outstanding 54.4 percent ground-ball rate. Add in that Sanchez can be retained at a relatively low rate and that the ’Stros could lose Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley and Collin McHugh to free agency this winter, and a low-cost flier on Sanchez has its appeal.

Then again, the Astros were able to wait out the starting pitching market and sign Miley for a $4.5MM guarantee last winter. They could seek a similarly low-cost match with a free-agent starter this winter rather than promise a comparable sum to Sanchez in arbitration. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke will return to front next year’s rotation, and the Astros will also likely have Lance McCullers Jr. back from Tommy John surgery. Houston does already have more than $156MM committed to the 2020 payroll — not including arbitration raises for Carlos Correa, Brad Peacock, Roberto Osuna, Jake Marisnick, Biagini and a likely repeat of McCullers’ $4.1MM salary — so the team may not be keen on further spending on a player with this level of uncertainty.

Angels Select Kaleb Cowart, Place Luis Rengifo On 60-Day IL

By Steve Adams | September 18, 2019 at 5:05pm CDT

5:05pm: The Angels have now announced Cowart’s selection to the MLB roster. To clear space on the 40-man roster, fellow infielder Luis Rengifo has been placed on the 60-day injured list. Rengifo sustained a fractured hamate bone in his left hand, the team announced, thus bringing his rookie season to a close. In 406 plate appearances, Rengifo batted .238/.321/.364 with solid marks for his defense at second base (+2 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 Ultimate Zone Rating).

4:00pm: The Angels have added infielder/reliever Kaleb Cowart to their 40-man roster, as Maria Torres of the L.A. Times tweets that Cowart is in New York with the team for tonight’s game. Cowart is on the lineup card as a bench player but isn’t listed with the team’s pitchers, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya points out (also via Twitter). There’s been no formal announcement from the team about Cowart’s selection to the Major League roster. They’ll need to make a 40-man roster move, though that could simply be putting Mike Trout or Justin Upton on the 60-day IL, as both are on the active roster but out for the season.

Cowart, 27, was outrighted by the Halos back in March and split the season between their Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. The switch-hitter is a former top 100 prospect and first-round pick who at one point was considered to be a potential long-term building block in the infield for the Angels. However, his offensive performance began to diminish upon reaching Double-A, and Cowart was ultimately unable to establish himself with the Angels despite several auditions from 2015-18.

Cowart was a two-way star in high school when the Angels selected him with the 18th pick in the 2010 draft, but he focused solely on honing his craft as a position player until the end of the 2018 season. It was at that point that Cowart began to shift his focus to trying his hand as a reliever/utilityman — an idea that clearly intrigued more than just the Angels. Both the Mariners and Tigers claimed Cowart off waivers over the winter, but he found his way back to the Angels via a third waiver claim in late February.

The transition to the mound for Cowart wasn’t exactly a smooth one, though. He tossed 17 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A but was welcomed back to the mound with 20 earned runs in that short time. Opponents tallied 26 hits (three home runs) against Cowart, but the larger issue for him — as one might expect from a player who hasn’t pitched in close to a decade — was locating the ball. Cowart walked 15 of the 96 batters he faced on the mound and hit another four, although he did manage to collect 16 strikeouts as well.

At the plate, Cowart posted solid but unspectacular numbers in the Pacific Coast League’s supercharged offensive environment; in 317 plate appearances, he hit .289/.345/.453 with eight homers, 15 doubles and four triples. He’ll give the Angels an option at all four infield spots and in the outfield corners at the very least — and perhaps an option on the mound if they need someone to work a low-leverage spot in a lopsided game.

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