2019-20 Offseason Outlook Series
MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Offseason Outlook series examines the potential signings, trades, and other moves that could be in store for all 30 teams this winter. This post contains links to all of the completed Outlooks, so keep this page bookmarked in order to follow along as more posts are written in the coming weeks.
NL East
NL Central
NL West
AL West
AL Central
AL East
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Twins, Merrifield, Dodgers, Villar
Click here to read the transcript the Thanksgiving Day baseball chat, moderated by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk
Jorge Polanco Undergoes Arthroscopic Surgery On Right Ankle
Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco is expected to need six weeks of recovery after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right ankle last Friday, according to an announcement from the team. The surgery was intended to fix what was described as a chronic issue for Polanco, and the All-Star should be fully recovered by the start of Spring Training.
Polanco was a major part of the Twins’ 101-win season, hitting .295/.356/.485 with 22 homers over 704 plate appearances. Only six players in all of baseball racked up more PA than Polanco in 2019, and only 35 players appeared in more than Polanco’s 153 games played. Though his defense was something of a mixed bag depending on the metric (a -15.7 UZR/150 but +1 Defensive Runs Saved), Polanco still an immensely valuable player, posting 4.0 fWAR for Minnesota.
This career year was just about the best possible rebound for Polanco, who had something to prove following a 2018 season that saw him receive an 80-game PED suspension. Polanco’s performance immediately made the Twins look wise for locking up the shortstop on a five-year, $25.75MM extension last February. That deal also contains a pair of club options ($10.5MM for 2024, $12MM for 2025) that could keep Polanco in the Twin Cities through his age-31 season.
Super-utilityman Marwin Gonzalez and infielder Ehire Adrianza are on hand for the Twins if Polanco does need any extra recovery time, though by all accounts this appears to be a fairly minor surgery. Polanco didn’t appear too bothered by his ankle problem during his very durable 2019, though he did post only a .706 OPS over 102 PA in September. He rebounded for a .273/.429/.545 slash line over 14 PA in the ALDS, as Polanco was one of the few Twins who performed at the plate during the club’s three-game sweep at the Yankees’ hands.
Quick Hits: Jays, Gibson, Padres, Quiroz
After you get your turkey in the oven, feel free to check in on a few notes from around baseball.
- The Blue Jays made an offer to right-hander Kyle Gibson before he signed with the Rangers, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. It’s unclear exactly how much Toronto was willing to put on the table, but it was presumably less than the $30MM over three years Gibson got to head to Texas. With Gibson off the market, the Jays now have to look elsewhere to fill out an uncertain rotation mix. That figures to include at least one free agent on a short-term deal, Davidi notes, and Toronto has to this point cast a wide net in its quest for starters. Not getting Gibson could also spur the Jays to work out an agreement with Matt Shoemaker, Davidi adds. The team has been discussing a deal with the arbitration-eligible righty in advance of Monday’s non-tender deadline.
- The Padres brought in a noteworthy outfielder and reliever in separate moves yesterday. Even after acquiring Trent Grisham and Drew Pomeranz (as well as starter Zach Davies), the Friars could be on the hunt for additional outfield and bullpen depth, per Peter Gammons of the Athletic (via Twitter). Second base, too, stands as a target area, which makes sense considering the Padres parted with Luis Urías to acquire Grisham and Davies. Whatever will be addressed first, there’s “more to come” in San Diego, one Padres executive tells Gammons.
- While the Padres figure to look externally for second basemen, they do have some internal options who remain in the mix. Ian Kinsler is still on hand, although he’s coming off a disappointing season. One under-the-radar name to monitor is Esteban Quiroz, as Jon Paul Morosi of MLB Network adds (via Twitter) that his presence in the organization played some role in the team’s comfort parting with Urías. Soon to turn 28, Quiroz is atypically old for a prospect. However, he had a long track record of above-average production in the Mexican League before entering the affiliated ranks in 2018 with the Red Sox. The Padres acquired Quiroz in a minor trade just over a year ago, and he continued to show well in the high minors. In 366 plate appearances with AAA El Paso last season, Quiroz slashed .271/.384/.539. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel wrote in May that Quiroz “has a chance” to be an everyday-caliber second baseman.
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Brewers/Padres Trade
Yesterday, the Brewers and Padres linked up on an interesting four-player swap. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd discussed the players involved in the immediate aftermath of the deal, but it’s worth pondering a little further.
San Diego sent middle infielder Luis Urías and left-hander Eric Lauer to Milwaukee in exchange for outfielder Trent Grisham and right-hander Zach Davies. It’s the rare swap involving four current MLB players, three of whom have yet to even reach arbitration. Unlike many deals where a current contender trades future value to a rebuilding club to upgrade the roster in the short-term, this swap hinges mostly on the talent of the players involved. As Padres GM A.J. Preller put it (via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell), “sometimes, there are deals because of salary issues. Sometimes, there are deals because someone’s getting toward free agency, because clubs are contending or not contending. In this case, it’s just a good baseball trade.”
For the most part, the deal turns on which of Urías and Grisham one prefers. Each has been a top 50 overall prospect in the past, per Baseball America, but Urías entered 2019 as the more acclaimed of the two. Grisham had a breakout season in the high minors last year, with a cumulative .300/.407/.603 slash in 441 plate appearances between AA and AAA before making his MLB debut in August. Urías, too, mashed in AAA last season (.315/.398/.600 in 339 PA), but scuffled in limited big league action. Grisham was a bit better in his small sample of MLB time, even if a misplay in right field in the NL Wild Card game ended the season on a sour note.
Of course, that one play was not the reason Milwaukee pulled the trigger on this deal, as Brewers GM David Stearns told reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). On the whole, reviews of Grisham’s defense in the corner outfield tend to be positive, even if, despite 93rd percentile sprint speed, he’s not viewed by many public outlets as a long-term option in center. Urías offers more defensive value as a middle infielder, although reviews tend to be mixed on him at shortstop, where he figures to play in Milwaukee with Keston Hiura locking down the keystone.
It’s a bit tougher to get too excited over the pitchers involved, although both are certainly useful big leaguers. Davies has the stronger bottom line results, with a 3.91 career ERA and an even better 3.55 mark in 159.2 innings in 2019. He’s never posted a 20% strikeout rate or a 10% swinging strike rate in a full season, though, and the soft-tossing contact manager has generally fallen out of favor in today’s game. Lauer’s profile isn’t dramatically different. His strikeout and walk rates are higher than Davies’ but each is lower than average. Lauer, though, hasn’t had the success Davies has had to this point keeping runs off the board. Davies is more expensive ($5MM arbitration projection) and comes with three fewer seasons of team control, but neither hurler figures to threaten either team’s bottom line moving forward.
How would you grade this deal for both teams?
First, Milwaukee..
(poll link for app users)
Grade the Brewers' side of yesterday's four-player deal.
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B 50% (10,466)
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A 24% (5,027)
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C 20% (4,275)
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D 4% (764)
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F 2% (495)
Total votes: 21,027
And San Diego…
(poll link for app users)
Grade the Padres' side of yesterday's four-player deal.
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B 39% (7,595)
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C 35% (6,808)
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A 14% (2,750)
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D 8% (1,661)
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F 4% (733)
Total votes: 19,547
MLBTR Poll: Best Managerial Hire?
Barring a surprising development, it’ll be several months before we see another managerial change in Major League Baseball. The Pirates, the last of eight teams that sought a new skipper on the heels of last season, filled the position with the hiring of former Twins bench coach Derek Shelton on Wednesday. The Angels, Phillies, Giants, Royals, Mets, Cubs and Padres previously landed new managers.
Of the teams that went in different directions in the dugout this offseason, half hired individuals with previous managerial experience. The Angels and Phillies, two big-spending clubs looking to break long playoff droughts, each tabbed a prior World Series winner. Los Angeles selected Joe Maddon, whom the Cubs parted with at the conclusion of the season, while Philadelphia went with Joe Girardi after he enjoyed an eminently successful run with the Yankees from 2008-17.
Girardi’s taking over for Gabe Kapler, whose tenure in Philly was not always sunny (far from it). The Phillies parted with Kapler on the heels of two straight mediocre-at-best years, but that didn’t stop the Giants from hiring him to succeed three-time champion and potential Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy. The rebuilding Royals also had to find someone to grab the reins from a former championship winner, Ned Yost, who retired. They chose ex-Cardinals manager Mike Matheny, who – like Kapler – wasn’t particularly popular in his prior stop.
Meanwhile, the four first-timers are stepping into differing situations. Carlos Beltran, who’s not far removed from wrapping up what could be a Cooperstown-caliber playing career, doesn’t even have any coaching experience. Nevertheless, the Mets are putting their faith in the 42-year-old Beltran – once of their stars – to outperform predecessor Mickey Callaway. Beltran proved capable of handling New York’s special brand of pressure when he was a player, but it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll be able to do the same in his new role with a Mets team that expects to push for a postseason berth in 2020.
Likewise, longtime major league catcher David Ross has assumed the reins of one of his former clubs, the Cubs, who will enter next season with playoff aspirations after petering out this year under Maddon. Ross is a fan favorite in Chicago thanks to his time with the Cubs, though he’s yet another managerial pick with no coaching experience.
On the other hand, Shelton and the Padres’ Jayce Tingler have coached, though neither one is inheriting a team that looks especially likely to contend next season. That said, there will be pressure for San Diego, led by general manager A.J. Preller, to at least get back to .500 for the first time since 2010. The hope for the club is that the 38-year-old Tingler, a former Rangers assistant who’s now the second-youngest manager in the game (Twins AL Manager of the Year winner Rocco Baldelli is younger), will emerge as something of a wunderkind.
So, who made the best hire among this large group of franchises? Is it one of the clubs that went the experienced route? Or do you like one of the rookies the best?
(Poll link for app users)
Best managerial hire?
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Joe Girardi 34% (9,636)
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Joe Maddon 24% (6,805)
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Derek Shelton 12% (3,398)
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Gabe Kapler 12% (3,379)
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David Ross 7% (1,913)
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Carlos Beltran 6% (1,801)
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Mike Matheny 3% (917)
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Jayce Tingler 2% (675)
Total votes: 28,524
Latest On Twins, Zack Wheeler
Minnesota’s among the teams chasing free agent Zack Wheeler, but the Twins haven’t made the right-hander an offer yet, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News reports. However, Wolfson suggests it’s only a matter of time before that will change. The club reportedly met with Wheeler’s representatives earlier this month.
Whether it’s Minnesota or another team that winds up signing Wheeler, it may have to fork over a nine-figure contract for the former Met. An executive told Dan Hayes of The Athletic that Wheeler should be able to land a five-year deal worth between $100MM and $110MM. A contract worth $100MM or more for Wheeler wouldn’t be particularly surprising, as MLBTR predicted he’d land exactly that much when the offseason got underway three weeks ago.
It obviously remains to be seen whether the Twins will be the team that emerges on top in the bidding for Wheeler, but the reigning AL Central champions’ need for starting pitching is obvious. Righty Jake Odorizzi made the somewhat surprising decision to accept the Twins’ $17.8MM qualifying offer earlier this month, thus patching a hole for the team, but he and Jose Berrios are the only proven rotation options penciled in for next year. The Twins lost free agent Kyle Gibson to the Rangers on Wednesday, while both Michael Pineda and Martin Perez are currently on the open market.
Odorizzi’s decision represents an instance in which the Twins have benefited from the qualifying offer system, though it’ll hurt them a bit if they sign Wheeler (or fellow standout free-agent pitchers Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or Madison Bumgarner). Adding a single free agent who rejected a QO, as Wheeler, Cole, Strasburg and Bumgarner did, would cost Minnesota its third-highest draft pick in 2020. Of course, that shouldn’t be a prohibitive price for a club that likely expects to reign over its division again next year and compete for a World Series.
Nationals To Re-Sign Yan Gomes
The Nationals have agreed to re-sign free-agent catcher Yan Gomes to a two-year, $10MM contract, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. The pact also contains award bonuses for the Jet Sports Management client, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. He’s the latest notable catcher to come off the board in the past week, joining Yasmani Grandal (four years, $73MM to the White Sox), Travis d’Arnaud (two years, $16MM to the Braves) and Stephen Vogt (one year, $3MM to the Diamondbacks)
Gomes was one of the Nationals’ key pickups last offseason, when they acquired the 2018 All-Star in a trade with the Indians almost exactly one year ago (Nov. 30). While the Brazilian-born Gomes experienced his share of success in Cleveland, he wound up struggling somewhat during his first year in Washington. A poor first half doomed the 32-year-old to an uninspiring .223/.316/.389 batting line with 12 home runs in 358 plate appearances.
Behind the plate, Gomes did throw out 31 percent of would-be base-stealers, which ranked comfortably above the league-average mark of 26 percent, and establish himself as a favorite of star left-hander Patrick Corbin. Meanwhile, Baseball Prospectus assigned him above-average grades in the pitch-blocking department, but his framing left something to be desired.
It wasn’t a banner regular season for Gomes, nor was he an offensive hero in the playoffs, as he collected just seven hits (no home runs) in 29 at-bats. But he nonetheless received plenty of playing time behind the dish in the fall for the Nationals, who stunningly won their first-ever World Series title. Gomes and Kurt Suzuki divided reps at catcher from the beginning of the season through the end, and they figure to do the same in 2020 for a reasonable price.
The two-year, $10MM guarantee for Gomes matches the price the Nationals paid for Suzuki in free agency last season. It also represents a pay cut, at least on a per-annum basis, for Gomes. The Nats declined his $9MM option for next year shortly after their World Series triumph over the Astros.
While Washington’s catcher situation appears to be sorted out for next season, there’s plenty of other important business on the champions’ plate. The deep-pocketed franchise will presumably make a strong effort to re-sign two of the game’s premier free agents, third baseman Anthony Rendon and right-hander Stephen Strasburg. Not to be forgotten, the Nationals are also facing the departures of infielder Howie Kendrick, reliever Daniel Hudson and first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, among others.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Padres Designate Pedro Avila, Announce Drew Pomeranz Signing
The Padres announced that they’ve designated right-hander Pedro Avila for assignment. His exit will make room for the signing of left-hander Drew Pomeranz, whose deal is now official.
The 22-year-old Avila made his major league debut in 2019, throwing 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball in a start against the Diamondbacks in April, but that’s his only MLB appearance to date. He also combined for just 24 innings among three minor league levels this past season, and saw his year come to an early end in late August when he underwent Tommy John surgery. As a result, Avila won’t factor in much (if at all) in the majors or minors next season.
Prior to his surgery, Avila was considered a promising prospect for the Padres, as FanGraphs ranked him 28th in a loaded San Diego farm system back in May. But Avila’s pro experience has largely been limited to High-A ball, where he has put up a 4.45 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 174 innings.
Rockies Sign Jose Mujica, Designate Wes Parsons
The Rockies have signed right-hander Jose Mujica to a major league contract and designated fellow righty Wes Parsons for assignment, the team announced.
The 23-year-old Mujica is coming off a season lost to Tommy John surgery. In his most recent action, he fired 36 2/3 innings of 2.70 ERA/2.81 FIP ball with 8.35 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9 at the Triple-A level for the Rays in 2018. Mujica had never pitched in Triple-A ball before then, making his strong output all the more impressive.
Parsons is just a few months removed from joining the Rockies, who claimed him off waivers from the Braves toward the end of August. The 27-year-old wound up throwing 19 1/3 innings for the Rox this past season, but he stumbled to a 6.98 ERA with more walks (16) than strikeouts (14). Parsons showed similar control problems with the Braves earlier in the year, as he issued 13 walks and struck out 12 in 15 1/3 innings, though he did manage a 3.52 ERA. But Parsons has been far stingier with walks at the Triple-A level, where he has logged 8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 3.41 ERA over 153 frames.