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2020-21 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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The reigning AL Central champs moved on from their longtime left fielder, retained their top slugger and improved their defense. They’ll face stiff competition in their quest for a third straight division title, however.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

For the first time in half a decade, the Twins will open the season with someone other than Eddie Rosario patrolling left field. The homegrown slugger held that spot for the better part of six years, but faced with Rosario’s final raise in arbitration and with multiple high-end prospects on the horizon, the Twins felt that money was better spent elsewhere. The league seemingly agreed, as Rosario went unclaimed on outright waivers before being non-tendered. He’d go on to sign in Cleveland for an $8MM salary that gives him a modest raise over 2020’s $7.75MM mark but still falls shy of what he’d have earned in arbitration.

While it was at least a mild surprise that no club jumped to grab Rosario on outright waivers, the Twins’ decision to move on in some capacity was largely foreseeable. Rosario is a fine player with above-average pop, but given his sub-par on-base skills and rising price tag, the writing was on the wall.

The Twins have two of the game’s top overall outfield prospects, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, nearly ready for a long-term audition in the outfield. Kirilloff, who has a chance to make the Opening Day roster, made his big league debut in last year’s postseason and seems to be first in line for the left field vacancy. The Twins also saw former No. 35 overall pick Brent Rooker, a left fielder/first baseman, make his big league debut last year. Jake Cave gives them another option in left should injuries or struggles keep the prospects from taking over.

It may not have surprised as many fans as the Rosario move, but the Twins’ non-tender of righty Matt Wisler was also unexpected. Having plucked the former top prospect off waivers to begin the 2019-20 offseason, the Twins pushed Wisler to throw his slider at a staggering 83 percent clip. The experiment was an unequivocal success, as Wisler turned in a 1.07 ERA and punched out nearly a third of the batters he faced. His 13 percent walk rate was far too high, however, and though his projected arbitration salary wasn’t much more than $1MM, the Twins appeared confident they could replace his production.

With that pair of non-tenders saving $10MM or more, the Twins’ payroll outlook in early December was relatively pristine. Josh Donaldson is earning $23MM annually, but the 2021 projected payroll at that point was a mere $90MM — down from more than $130MM in 2020. The number plummets in 2022, when the Twins have just $48MM in guaranteed contracts on the books.

As such, the Twins had the financial wherewithal to pursue just about any free agent, but it quickly became clear they were focused primarily on one-year additions. Whether the driving factor there was uncertainty about further revenue losses in 2021, the desire to keep a clean outlook for next year’s mega-crop of free agents or a combination of multiple factors, the trend is clear both in the free agents they signed and in the names they pursued.

Minnesota tried for one of the market’s bigger names out of the gate, reportedly making a strong offer for Charlie Morton before he took an early deal with the Braves. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote back in November that the Twins were a “finalist” for Morton, but the righty’s strong preference to pitch near his family home in Bradenton, Fla. has long been known.

Pursuits of Corey Kluber and James Paxton led to similar results. After spending months rehabbing at a facility run by Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey, Kluber went to the Bronx. Paxton re-upped with the Mariners, and Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto said afterward that Paxton “wanted to be a Mariner” gave the club a “hometown discount” of sorts on his $8.5MM salary.

The Twins did ultimately add a pair of veterans to the rotation, inking 38-year-old lefty J.A. Happ to a one-year deal worth $8MM and signing righty Matt Shoemaker to a one-year, $2MM deal after an injury-wrecked pair of seasons. In many ways, the signings mirror last winter’s signings of Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. The more expensive of the two additions is designed to stabilize the rotation, while the more affordable one carries more upside and a greater risk of injury. The combined $10MM price point is a dead match with the combined $10MM base salaries of Bailey ($7MM) and Hill ($3MM).

While neither Happ nor Shoemaker gives the Twins a top-of-the-rotation presence, the organizational hope is surely that last year’s breakout from Kenta Maeda gives them the ace-caliber arm they’ve lacked since Johan Santana. Between Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker, the Twins have a solid Opening Day rotation. Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe give them a trio of younger options with some big league experience (and a good bit of success, in Dobnak’s case). Right-handers Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran, both top 100 prospects according to FanGraphs and The Athletic, loom in the upper minors and could debut in 2021.

Jake Odorizzi remained on the Twins’ radar for much of the offseason, but his desire for a multi-year deal never seemed to align with the team’s general approach. While the eventual terms of his deal with the Astros may arguably have been a better investment than the one-year deals with Happ and Shoemaker, Odorizzi was reported to be seeking a three-year deal at $13-15MM annually for much of the winter. By the times his asking price dropped, the Twins had signed multiple pitchers and turned the page on the 2019 All-Star.

Looking to the bullpen, the Twins lost nearly their entire setup corps with Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard and Wisler hitting the market. All four will pitch elsewhere in 2021. In place of that trio, Minnesota signed former division rival Alex Colome to a one-year deal and took a chance on a Hansel Robles rebound. Both have closing experience, and Colome has been particularly effective in terms of ERA over the past couple seasons with the White Sox. Even though Colome’s secondary marks don’t look as appealing as his ERA, it’s hard to find fault with the $6.25MM price tag. He’s expected to share closing duties with holdover Taylor Rogers, who took a slight step back in 2020 but has amassed a generally strong late-inning track record since 2018.

The Twins’ acquisition of righty Shaun Anderson didn’t draw much attention, but he gives the club a spin-rate project on which they can dream. Anderson has elite spin on both his four-seamer and, in particular, his slider. Walks have been a significant problem thus far in his big league career, but Anderson has a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Twins can take their time in trying to shape him into a quality reliever.

In the meantime, the Twins will look for incumbent options to step up. Tyler Duffey broke out as one of the game’s best relievers in 2019-20 (2.31 ERA, 2.72 SIERA, 34.2 K%, 6.1 BB%). Flamethrower Jorge Alcala had a quietly excellent showing in 2020, and righty Cody Stashak is another largely anonymous but highly effective reliever through his first 40 big league frames. Southpaw Caleb Thielbar was tendered a contract in December after a strong season, continuing his emotional comeback effort following a five-year absence from MLB.

On the offensive side of the coin, the main storyline for the Twins entering the winter (beyond Rosario) was whether they’d re-sign veteran slugger Nelson Cruz. A reunion with Cruz was dependent on the universal designated hitter — or the lack thereof. Cruz reportedly sought a two-year contract, while the Twins were steadfast in their preference to keep the commitment to one year. With few AL contenders having the capacity to add a pure DH, however, Cruz seemingly needed the universal DH to be permanently implemented if he was going to create enough market pressure to get to a two-year deal. That still hasn’t happened, and Cruz eventually signed on for a third season at Target Field after the Twins upped their one-year offer to match the AAV from his first two years there.

As noted when previewing their offseason, the Twins didn’t necessarily have a true “need” in the middle infield, but it represented an opportunity to get creative. President of baseball ops Derek Falvey, GM Thad Levine and their front office crew did just that, pursuing one-year pacts with free-agent shortstops Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien. When Semien took a larger offer in Toronto, the Twins quickly wrapped things up with Simmons.

In doing so, they secured a historically gifted defender and pushed incumbent shortstop Jorge Polanco to second base. Versatile Luis Arraez will slide into the vacant super-utility role previously held by Marwin Gonzalez, who signed with the Red Sox as a free agent. Arraez, a .331/.390/.429 hitter through his first 124 MLB games, will get into the lineup regularly by filling in around the infield and in left field.

Both Simmons and Polanco have battled significant ankle issues the past two seasons, but the hope is that after a pair of surgeries, Polanco will be back to full strength for the first time since 2018. If Simmons is healthy, he and Josh Donaldson could form one of the game’s best left-side tandems on defense. Polanco has never rated as a strong defensive shortstop, but the Twins feel he can be above-average at second base.

If that’s indeed the case, the Twins could be one of the game’s best defensive clubs. Miguel Sano isn’t going to win any awards for his glovework at first base, but the rest of the infield, combined with strong defenders behind the dish (Ryan Jeffers, Mitch Garver) and elite defenders in the outfield (Byron Buxton, Max Kepler) should be formidable.

The Twins were dealt a tough blow early in Spring Training, when it was learned on report day that some knee discomfort being experienced by Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick in 2017, was due to an ACL tear that will end his 2021 season before it begins. Lewis, widely regarded among the game’s top 30 or so prospects, hurt his knee during offseason workouts and aggravated it when he slipped during the blizzards near his Texas home. He’ll now go more than two years between competitive games, although at just 21 years old, he has youth on his side.

The 2021 Twins have a different feel to them than 2019’s “Bomba Squad,” but this looks to be an improved defensive club with a good bit of thunder in the middle of the lineup and a deep pitching staff. The Indians’ trades of Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco have dropped them a ways back in projections, but improvements on the White Sox roster mean the Twins will still face stiff competition as they look for an AL Central threepeat. Meanwhile, both the Royals and Tigers added some veterans to complement rosters that are seeing the fruits of their rebuilding efforts percolate to the big league level.

This should be the best iteration of the AL Central we’ve seen in years. The Twins have again positioned themselves as clear contenders in 2021 and done so while maintaining the long-term flexibility to be prominent players in next year’s stacked free-agent market.

How would you grade the Twins’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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Led by a new general manager, the Marlins overhauled their bullpen and added a group of low-cost veterans they hope can supplement a growing core of young big leaguers.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Marlins’ winter began with the news that longtime president of baseball ops Michael Hill would depart the club after the two sides weren’t able to come to terms on an extension. Hill went on to take a job in the league offices, while the Marlins made history by tabbing Kim Ng as MLB’s first female general manager.

Ng has been considered a potential GM for years now, having previously served as an assistant GM with multiple clubs in addition to holding a prominent post within the league offices herself. She’s interviewed for several openings, and she’ll now be given the keys to a promising, up-and-coming club fresh off a surprise postseason berth. A return to the playoffs will be a tall task in a stacked division and with fewer postseason spots up for grabs in 2021.

As is often the case when new front office regimes take over, the first winter was a relatively quiet one under Ng. The Marlins were connected to come notable names — free agent Marcell Ozuna and trade candidate Willson Contreras among them — but the moves the team actually did make were far more measured when all was said and done.

Some of that is surely due to the presence of intriguing youngsters at various positions on the roster, while some is likely due to ownership’s commitment to limit spending early in its tenure. Marlins CEO Derek Jeter sought to distance the organization from a leaked payroll projection plan in his first winter on the job — one in which payroll was to drop from $115MM in 2017 to the low $80MMs in 2019-20. However, the Marlins haven’t done much to suggest that plan was not accurate, and last year’s revenue losses couldn’t have accelerated plans to spend.

That being said, the Fish still made a handful of notable additions, beginning with the signing of righty Anthony Bass to a modest two-year pact. Bass has done well in reviving his career after a nice run in Japan, and he parlayed a strong showing in Toronto last year into a guaranteed multi-year pact.

Bass is the favorite to close games in Miami this year, and while he’s not the prototypical high-strikeout, high-leverage reliever, Bass fits a similar profile to that of 2020 closer Brandon Kintzler. The 33-year-old Bass sports a sinker that averages around 95 mph, and last season’s 62.3% ground-ball rate was the tenth-highest among the 490 pitchers who threw at least 10 innings. If you up the minimum to 20 innings pitched, Bass ranked fourth among all MLB pitchers.

While Bass was the most expensive addition to the team’s bullpen, he was far from the only one. In fact, the Marlins added several relievers with a similar profile to Bass, suggesting that while they knew they wouldn’t be able to spend on the market’s top strikeout artists, they’re confident they can build a bullpen that thrives on grounders and weak contact.

Inking journeyman lefty Ross Detwiler to a big league deal came as something of a surprise, but at $850K, the price was minimal. And, like Bass, Detwiler was flat-out elite in ground-ball production last year, turning in a 58.3% mark that ranked 30th of the 490 pitchers with 10 or more innings. Dylan Floro, acquired in a trade with the Dodgers, ranked 44th on that same list. Adam Cimber, picked from DFA limbo in a deal that sent cash to Cleveland, was tied for 74th at 52.4%. Rule 5 trade acquisition Zach Pop has a career grounder rate north of 60% in the minors.

The exceptions to the ground-ball rule were righty John Curtiss, acquired in a small trade with the Rays, and Rule 5 pick Paul Campbell. Curtiss hasn’t established himself in the big leagues over a large sample but was the stingiest reliever in the game in terms of walks last year. Campbell is a spin-rate darling who doesn’t miss as many bats as one would expect.

Miami completely overhauled its bullpen mix without spending much money or surrendering much in the way of prospects, as Ng and her staff bucked the industry trend of paying up for late-inning whiffs. They’re not the only club to invest in this area this winter — the A’s also went heavy into weak contact, at least prior to inking Trevor Rosenthal — but it’ll be telling to see if the club succeeds with this approach. There are too many weak contact/ground-ball specialists here to think it’s mere coincidence, so it seems like the Marlins made a deliberate bet on a skill set they felt was undervalued.

Beyond that slew of bullpen additions, the Marlins’ primary add was former division-rival slugger Adam Duvall. Non-tendered by the Braves on the heels of a productive 2020 season, Duvall now figures to slot in as Miami’s everyday right fielder, with 2020 deadline pickup Starling Marte in center and 2019-20 offseason signee Corey Dickerson in left field. It’s a veteran group that ought to provide some value on both sides of the ball. Duvall is a low-OBP, high-powered slugger with a strong glove in the outfield corners, and the Marlins landed him at a rather reasonable $5MM rate for the upcoming season.

That the Marlins are trotting out a trio of veterans to serve as their starting outfield in 2021 highlights the disappointment stemming from a group of prospects once considered to be the future there. Lewis Brinson, Magneuris Sierra, Monte Harrison and Jesus Sanchez were all billed as top prospects at various times and were all key pieces in the Marlins’ last tear-down. To this point, none of the quartet has solidified himself as a big leaguer or really even come close to doing so. Each of Brinson, Harrison and Sanchez at least has a minor league option remaining, so there’s still some leash yet to break out.

Sierra, meanwhile, is out of options and struggling in Spring Training. We’ll find out before long whether the restructured front office is as bullish on his outlook as the regime that acquired him as part of the Marcell Ozuna trade with the Cardinals (alongside Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen). Miami already parted with one semi-notable piece of its rebuild haul, as righty Jordan Yamamoto was sent to the Mets after being designated for assignment to clear space on the roster for Bass. Yamamoto was considered the fourth-best piece in the Christian Yelich swap behind Brinson, Harrison and Isan Diaz, but he was the only one of the four to find some reasonable big league success to this point.

Elsewhere in the lineup, there’s a good bit of continuity. Brian Anderson will reprise his role at third base and in the heart of the order, providing the Marlins with a solid, underrated cornerstone. He and the former front office discussed an extension last spring, but Ng suggested over the winter that she wants a chance to evaluate Anderson firsthand before determining whether to sign him to a long-term deal. The third baseman is currently controlled through the 2023 season.

Team leader Miguel Rojas is back at shortstop, and he’ll pair with Anderson to form a strong defensive tandem on the left side of the infield — one that bodes well for the Marlins’ grounder-heavy bullpen. At second base, the hope is that Diaz can cement his spot after opting out of most of the 2020 season, but he’ll compete for time with veteran Jon Berti and have prospect Jazz Chisholm looming as well. Jesus Aguilar and Garrett Cooper will hold things down at first base, and Cooper can play some corner outfield should an injury arise. Cooper drew some offseason trade interest once Duvall was signed, but the Marlins opted not to move him.

Speaking of offseason trade interest, the Marlins’ catcher position was the source of some intrigue early in the winter. Reports of the team’s interest in Contreras led to plenty of speculation and even elicited a reaction from Contreras himself on social media, but a deal never came to pass. Miami was linked to some other options behind the dish, mostly in more speculative fashion, but in the end they’ll give another chance to Jorge Alfaro and Chad Wallach. It seems fair to believe that pairing doesn’t take a step forward in 2021, changes could be on the horizon.

As it stands, Sandy Leon was the only backstop option brought in from outside the organization, and that came on a minor league deal. He’s one of just two prominent names in camp as a non-roster invitee this spring, joining hometown “kid” Gio Gonzalez. The veteran lefty inked a minor league deal not long after camp began and is in the mix for a rotation spot. Given every team’s need for depth and innings as they exercise caution ramping pitchers back up, Gonzalez ought to have a decent chance to make the club. He’s competing with prospects like Trevor Rogers, Nick Neidert and Braxton Garrett for that spot, but he’d be a sensible add to the Opening Day roster even as more of a long reliever.

All in all, it was a relatively quiet winter for the Marlins. The bullpen has been turned over considerably, but much of the club’s fate lies with the development of burgeoning young rotation cogs like Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and the tantalizing Sixto Sanchez. Elieser Hernandez, fresh off a strong but abbreviated showing in 2020, is likely to start plenty of games this season as well. It’s an interesting and exciting mix of young arms for the Fish — one that could very well be the foundation of a more competitive wave of clubs than we’ve seen for years in Miami, with new ownership and new management now fully entrenched. The odds are against them for a playoff berth in 2021, but the future still looks bright.

How would you grade the Marlins’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals brought back a pair of familiar faces, and swung one of the winter’s biggest trades to add a new star to the lineup.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

For the first two-plus months of the offseason, the entire NL Central seemed focused on trimming payroll rather than adding talent.  The Cardinals were no exception, as they chose to buy out Kolten Wong for $1MM rather than exercise their $12.5MM club option on the second baseman for 2021.

The decision brought a swift end to Wong’s eight years in St. Louis, and it left the team without one of the sport’s top defensive players.  For a Cardinals team that relied on excellent run prevention (the Cards ranked first in Defensive Runs Saved, fourth in UZR/150, and fifth Outs Above Average) and pitching rather than a lackluster offense, losing Wong was no small matter.

In hindsight, St. Louis fans might not have minded the long wait, as the Cardinals aggressively swung into action in late January and found a significant upgrade on Wong.  Nolan Arenado had long been speculated as a potential Cardinals trade target, and rumor became reality when the Cards landed the five-time All-Star in a complex deal that both required some reworking of Arenado’s contract, and left the Rockies fanbase irate.

The Cardinals gave up a decent but expendable pitcher in Austin Gomber and four middle-to-lower tier prospects in exchange for not just Arenado, but $51MM from the Rockies to help cover Arenado’s salary in 2021 ($35MM, with $20MM of that money deferred) and a newly-added contract year in 2027 ($15MM).  Another opt-out opportunity was inserted into Arenado’s deal after the 2022 season to go along with his previously-existing opt-out following the 2021 season, so if Arenado chooses to walk away next winter, the Cards technically won’t have paid a cent of payroll for Arenado’s services.

Since Arenado is owed $179MM through 2027, would he really consider using one of his opt-outs and leaving the bulk of that guaranteed money on the table?  If he turns in such spectacular numbers that the question is even debatable, the Cardinals would still probably consider the trade to have been worth the effort.  But, needless to say, the Cards are certainly counting on Arenado as a franchise cornerstone for the bulk of the next decade.

There is some risk on the Cardinals’ end, as Arenado is coming off a subpar 2020 season that saw him hit only .253/.303/.434 over 201 plate appearances.  A shoulder injury did hamper Arenado for much of the year, however, and between the health issue, the small sample size, and perhaps the cloud of frustration that surrounded Arenado’s final days in Colorado, there is certainly reason to expect that he can rebound with a vintage season in 2021.

With Arenado now locking down the hot corner, the St. Louis infield consists of Paul Goldschmidt at first base, Paul DeJong at shortstop, and Tommy Edman moving over to second base as Wong’s replacement.  Since the NL apparently won’t have the designated hitter slot available, Matt Carpenter will now look to win some plate appearances away from Edman at second base, but Carpenter may ultimately just be a very well-paid bench bat.  Despite Carpenter’s career track record, his lack of production over the last two seasons makes it hard to argue that he deserves more regular work on a team planning to contend.

Dexter Fowler had only been slightly more productive than Carpenter over the 2019-20 seasons, and the Cards chose to part ways with Fowler by swapping him to the Angels for a player to be named later.  Since the Cardinals are covering almost all of Fowler’s remaining salary obligations, the trade wasn’t a salary dump.  It seemed as if the Cards just wanted to move on from a player who had been an inconsistent performer over his four years in St. Louis, and clear room for younger outfielders.

The Cardinals are still putting a lot of faith in that young outfield mix, as they didn’t add any proven veteran names to the depth chart.  Apart from Harrison Bader’s big numbers against left-handed pitching, there wasn’t much offense to be found in the St. Louis outfield in 2020, but with some extenuating circumstances — star prospect Dylan Carlson was in his first MLB season, and Lane Thomas had a rough time recovering from COVID-19.

Should any of this group or Tyler O’Neill struggle again, however, the Cardinals might consider a midseason addition to finally restore some consistent pop to the outfield.  Further down the depth chart, Justin Williams, Austin Dean, or a minor league signing like Matt Szczur could find an opening for playing time, and if the Cardinals wanted to get creative, the outfield could be Nolan Gorman’s path to a quicker Major League promotion.  The team was planning to test Gorman as an outfielder and second baseman, since third base (Gorman’s regular position) is now Arenado’s spot for the foreseeable future.

While the Arenado trade was being finalized and approved by the league, the Cardinals also worked to complete two contracts for a pair of St. Louis icons.  Though other teams showed interest in both Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina (with Molina even hinting that he could retire if he didn’t get an acceptable contract offer), it always seemed somewhat inevitable that the two long-time teammates would be back for what could be their mutual final season under the Arch.

There was obviously more than just nostalgia at work in bringing the duo back.  Molina hit only .262/.303/.359 in 156 PA but his defense was still strong, and Molina was also one of the many Cardinals sidelined by a COVID-19 diagnosis.  Molina has already outlasted multiple would-be successors in St. Louis, but for now, the plan is for Molina to act as a bridge for Andrew Knizner and (in a few years) prospect Ivan Herrera.

Wainwright ended up being a pillar of stability in the rotation, leading the team with 65 2/3 innings and posting a 3.15 ERA, even if his Statcast numbers weren’t very flattering.  It may be a tall order to expect a similar performance in Wainwright’s age-39 season, yet the Cardinals may need all the help they can get considering how injury concerns have already surfaced in Spring Training; Miles Mikolas has been set back by shoulder troubles, while 2020 rookie sensation Kwang Hyun Kim has been bothered by a bad back.

The Cardinals at least explored signing Jake Odorizzi, Taijuan Walker, or James Paxton, but instead, Wainwright ended up being the only major pitching acquisition for either the St. Louis rotation or bullpen.  There are enough notable relievers still on the market (or could join the market as Spring Training cuts commence) that the Cards could certainly still add at least one veteran prior to Opening Day, but just like with their outfield, the Cardinals are counting on a lot of youngsters to step up, and for experienced hurlers like Carlos Martinez and Jordan Hicks to return strong from injuries.

Getting even one more proven arm would be very helpful for the team, but the question remains about exactly how much John Mozeliak’s front office has available to spend.  The Cardinals were reportedly looking for “cash-neutral” trades early in the offseason, and in a division where most other teams were looking to shed salaries, even standing pat payroll-wise gives St. Louis some advantage.

Before salaries were prorated due to the shortened season, the Cards went into 2020 prepared to spend roughly $167.5MM on payroll.  According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Cardinals have less than $142MM committed for 2021, factoring in the Rockies’ coverage of Arenado’s entire salary.  That would seem to indicate that there’s probably some room for additional spending during the season, if Mozeliak and GM Michael Girsch need to make an upgrade at the trade deadline.

There is a bit of a half-measures feel to the Cardinals offseason given their relatively small number of transactions, though a case can be made that the Cardinals already have enough to win the NL Central.  The team finished 30-28 last season despite a widespread coronavirus breakout in the clubhouse, so a healthier version of mostly that same roster plus Arenado looks pretty good on paper.  What worked over 60 games in 2020 may not work over 162 games, of course, so Mozeliak and Girsch could certainly have more adjustments to make.

How would you grade the Cardinals’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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Angels fans may have entered the offseason with visions of big free-agent deals for the likes of Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto and DJ LeMahieu dancing in their heads, but new general manager Perry Minasian made far more modest moves in an effort to improve the roster.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Angels’ rotation has been a weakness in recent years, including in 2020, so it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see the team court some of the top available starters during the offseason. Bauer, a Southern California native, was atop the free-agent market, though he wanted to play for a perennial contender. The Angels, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2014, don’t fit that description. Plus, there was friction between Bauer and pitching coach Mickey Callaway when the two were in Cleveland, which made it even less likely he would sign with the Angels (Callaway’s future with the club is now in doubt as a result of multiple allegations of sexual harassment that have come to light in recent weeks). In the end, Bauer did sign in Los Angeles, but he went to the Dodgers, thereby leaving the Angels without an elite ace yet again.

Before Bauer headed to the Dodgers, the Angels showed interest in the likes of Jake Odorizzi and J.A. Happ in free agency, and they were among potential suitors for Blake Snell on the trade market. They didn’t bring in anyone from that group, though, instead signing ex-White Sox and Cubs left-hander Jose Quintana to a one-year, $8MM deal and acquiring righty Alex Cobb from the Orioles. Those two, Dylan Bundy (who excelled in 2020), Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning and Shohei Ohtani are projected to make up a six-man rotation at the beginning of the season.

Quintana and Cobb, who have each pitched under manager Joe Maddon in the past, come with quality track records. However, no one is going to confuse either one with a top-end starter. Quintana hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.00 since 2016, and injuries held him to just 10 innings and one start last year. Cobb has also battled injuries and mediocrity since a Rays heyday that lasted from 2013-14. The Angels are only paying $5MM of his $15MM salary (the Orioles are taking on the rest), but it’s still somewhat of a head-scratcher that they gave up Jahmai Jones, a decent prospect, for Cobb instead of dipping into free agency and signing a similarly priced hurler without surrendering young talent.

While the Cobb trade may look questionable, it’s hard to argue with the Angels’ decision to send reliever Noe Ramirez and infield prospect Leo Rivas to the Reds for Raisel Iglesias. Although the Angels will only get one guaranteed year out of Iglesias, he’s a clear bullpen upgrade over Ramirez, and he makes a reasonable salary ($9.125MM). Iglesias figures to close for the Angels, who – despite reported interest in Brad Hand and Joakim Soria – didn’t make any other major bullpen additions. Alex Claudio and Junior Guerra (minor league deal) came aboard alongside Iglesias, though, and any of those three could emerge as trade deadline chips if the club’s not in contention around the trade deadline.

Not content to stop at one Iglesias over the winter, the Angels also landed shortstop Jose Iglesias in a trade with the Orioles. That’s probably not the middle infielder Angels fans were hoping for when the offseason commenced. Because David Fletcher is capable of playing both second and short, the Angels could have addressed either position and used him at the other spot. LeMahieu and Kolten Wong were among the free agents at second, while Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Francisco Lindor (whom the Angels would have had to reel in via trade) could have replaced the departed Andrelton Simmons at short. Most of those players would have been more exciting pickups than Iglesias on paper, though it’s worth noting the slick-fielding 31-year-old comes at a cheap rate ($3.5MM) and enjoyed a career year at the plate in 2020. Furthermore, next winter is slated to feature a star-studded class of free-agent shortstops (Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story and Javier Baez lead the pack), so the Angels may just be biding their time with Iglesias as they wait for any of those players to hit the market.

As expected, along with trying to bolster their middle infield, the Angels made an effort to get better behind the plate and in the corner outfield. The No. 1 catcher available, Realmuto, looked like a fit on paper, but the Angels didn’t seriously pursue him before he re-signed with the Phillies. They did, however, go after James McCann and Yadier Molina in free agency and show interest in trades for Christian Vazquez of the Red Sox and Willson Contreras of the Cubs. But they came up empty in all of those cases, instead bringing in the well-traveled Kurt Suzuki on a one-year, $1.25MM deal. Suzuki’s not an ideal option behind the plate, though he is a good hitter relative to his position. He’ll give the Angels a useful fallback option if Max Stassi struggles in his return from the hip surgery he underwent last autumn.

Center fielder Mike Trout, the best player in the world, leads the Angels in the grass, but they’ve lately struggled to find productive complements in the corners. Justin Upton was part of the solution for a little while, but he’s now coming off back-to-back subpar years. He’s still slated to start in left, though, owing in part to a bloated salary. Meanwhile, much-hyped prospect Jo Adell had a horrid debut in the majors last season, after which Maddon said, “He needs more time in the minor leagues, no question.” Adell is just 21 and was robbed of a Triple-A season in 2020 because of COVID-19, so it’s far too soon to discount him as a potential answer for the Angels in the future. Regardless, they’re not going to gift him a starting role right now.

In light of Adell’s difficult year, the Halos spent a portion of the offseason looking into veteran free agents such as Brett Gardner and Kyle Schwarber, but their biggest outfield transaction came when they grabbed Dexter Fowler in a trade with the Cardinals. Fowler, like Upton, has disappointed since signing a lucrative contract a few years back, but the Halos took little risk in dealing for the 34-year-old switch-hitter. After all, the Cardinals are paying $12.75MM of the remaining $14.5MM on Fowler’s contract, and the Angels only had to give up a player to be named later for him. If Fowler’s able to offer a third straight year of league-average numbers at the plate, he’ll provide a sizable upgrade in right for a minimal cost.

Even though the Angels didn’t have an especially fascinating offseason, it does appear Minasian has put the long-struggling franchise in better position to succeed this year. It helps that they’re in a division where there is no dominant team, as the Astros, Athletics, Mariners and Rangers also come with their fair share of questions.

(Poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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Despite finishing under .500 during the regular season, the Astros made their fourth straight trip to the American League Championship Series in 2020. The Rays denied them a World Series berth, though, and the Astros have since lost one of their longtime stars to free agency.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The biggest question the Astros faced entering the offseason was whether they would be able to re-sign outfielder George Springer, a three-time All-Star who was hugely instrumental in the team’s recent success. The Astros made Springer an $18.9MM qualifying offer, which he summarily rejected, and it doesn’t seem they put forth much of an effort to retain him after that. In the end, Springer exited Houston for another AL team – Toronto – for a six-year, $150MM payday.

Springer wasn’t the only noteworthy Astros outfielder who hit the market, as Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick joined him in seeking new contracts. Reddick remains a free agent, but the Astros did keep Brantley on a two-year, $32MM pact after deciding against issuing him a qualifying offer. It’s a reasonable deal when considering what Brantley brings to the table at the plate, though it’s not unwarranted to be concerned about his age (34 in May) and ability to play left field on an everyday basis. Brantley spent a large portion of last season as the Astros’ designated hitter as Yordan Alvarez battled knee problems, but that role won’t be available much this year if Alvarez’s health holds up. Assuming Alvarez is the regular DH, that would leave Brantley and Kyle Tucker as Houston’s corner outfielders.

With Springer out the door, the Astros did show offseason interest in other outfielders – Andrew Benintendi via trade, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Yasiel Puig in free agency – but didn’t come away with any outside additions on guaranteed contracts. As a result, they’re primed to start the season with the mostly unproven duo of Myles Straw and Chas McCormick as their top two center fielders. Straw’s a speedster and an adept defender, though he has almost no power and is coming off a brutal 2020 as a hitter. McCormick, meanwhile, has never played in the majors, but he does rank as Baseball America’s No. 12 Astros prospect.

One of the reasons the Astros are in position to gamble on untested center fielders is the overall strength of their offense. Brantley, Alvarez and Tucker can flat-out hit. The same has typically been true of second baseman Jose Altuve and shortstop Carlos Correa, even though both players endured down years in 2020. Third baseman Alex Bregman also wasn’t quite himself last season, but he remains one of the premier players in the game at his position.

That group should lead an above-average attack this year, but the rest of Houston’s offense isn’t quite as imposing. The team brought back a former longtime Astro in Jason Castro to team with Martin Maldonado at catcher. While those two probably aren’t going to combine for great offensive production, they’re well-regarded defenders who should make life easier on the Astros’ pitching staff.

First baseman Yuli Gurriel had a career year in 2019 before his output plummeted a season ago, yet the Astros still gave him a new one-year, $7MM contract in September. Such contract extensions so close to a player’s free agency are surprising, and from Houston’s perspective, the Gurriel deal continues to look like somewhat of a curious move. However, in fairness to the Astros, this past winter’s crop of free-agent first basemen was rather weak, leading them to keep around a familiar face on an affordable contract.

On the pitching front, the Astros will have to go a second consecutive season without ace Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery in the fall. But even without Verlander last year, the Astros’ rotation – which consisted primarily of Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy – still held up well. Most of that group is back this year, but unfortunately, Houston may have to go without Valdez for most or all of the season. Valdez enjoyed a breakout 2020, though he’s now dealing with a broken ring finger that will shelve him for the foreseeable future.

The Astros’ starting depth took yet another hit with the loss of high-end prospect Forrest Whitley, who will undergo TJ surgery and won’t pitch this year. The club did, however, help cover its bases earlier this month when it signed accomplished right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who will slot in along with Greinke, McCullers, Javier and Urquidy to open the season. Odorizzi’s two-year, $23MM pact includes a $6.5MM player option for 2023, which the Astros included in an effort to lower their luxury-tax commitment this season.

In light of the Odorizzi acquisition, there’s little wiggle room under the $210MM threshold for the Astros, who Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects are between $208MM and $209MM right now. Because of that, veteran minor league pickups Steve Cishek and Steven Souza Jr. – whose contracts include $2.25MM and $1.15MM MLB salaries, respectively – are less likely to earn roster spots with the club.

Cishek was one of a few relievers the Astros brought in after their bullpen notched mediocre numbers last season. They showed interest in some big fish in free agency (e.g., Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Alex Colome and Joakim Soria), ultimately coming away with former Dodger Pedro Baez and ex-Ray Ryne Stanek. Baez has always prevented runs at a good clip, though he was more expensive than expected (two years, $12.5MM) after an injury-shortened year in which his average fastball velocity and strikeouts dropped to career-low levels. The 33-year-old is currently on the COVID-19 list, so it’s unclear whether he will be ready for the start of the season.

General manager James Click took a low-risk chance on Stanek, whom he’s familiar with from their time with the Rays. Click was part of the front office that used a first-round pick on Stanek in 2013, and the flamethrowing righty had a solid two-year stretch with the Rays from 2018-19 before Tampa traded him to the Marlins in the latter of those years. Unfortunately for Stanek, the 2020 season couldn’t have gone much worse, as he yielded eight runs and walked eight batters in just 10 innings.

Stanek is one of several Astros who could reach free agency next offseason, but he’s at the lower end of the totem pole in comparison to Correa, Verlander, Greinke and McCullers. Verlander is hardly in prime position for an extension, and there hasn’t been much buzz about Greinke, but Correa and McCullers have made it known they’d prefer to stay in Houston. Click has interest in keeping the pair, but if no extensions are in place by Opening Day, negotiations (if any are taking place) could cease until the end of the season. Correa’s on track to be part of the elite class of free agents who could approach a $300MM-plus guarantee, so the Astros will have their hands full in trying to keep him from hitting the market. McCullers won’t be nearly that expensive, but he’s just 27 years old at the moment and could command a lucrative multiyear payday.

Regardless of whether the Astros reach extensions with any in-house talent before the season, and even in spite of Springer’s exit, their roster once again looks strong enough to contend in the AL West this year. The Athletics won the division last year, but their roster doesn’t appear to be as strong as it was then. The Angels have made some improvements, but their offseason didn’t feature any enormous splashes, and it’s easy to be skeptical of a franchise mired in a six-year playoff drought. The other teams in the West – the Mariners and Rangers – will have difficulty getting to the .500 mark.

How would you grade the Astros’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks went into the 2020 campaign aiming for a playoff spot, but they wound up going 25-35 and finishing last in the National League West. The D-backs nevertheless had a rather modest offseason and now look as if they’ll extend their playoff drought to four years in 2021.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

With last season on the verge of concluding, Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall suggested to reporters that the club was unlikely to make significant changes on the roster, in the dugout or in the front office. He also called it “far-fetched” that Arizona’s 2021 payroll would match the $124MM that it was projected to spend last year before the pandemic sliced 102 games off the schedule. Hall wasn’t kidding. The Diamondbacks made little in the way of notable moves over the winter, and they’re set to enter this season with a payroll of $98MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

Right-handers Joakim Soria and Tyler Clippard, two of the three major league free agents the Diamondbacks signed, will play important roles in their bullpen this season after signing low-cost one-year deals. It’s no surprise the Diamondbacks made improving the unit a priority, as it finished 18th in the league in ERA and 25th in K-BB percentage in 2020. Soria and Clippard – a Diamondback in 2016 – are up there in age (36), but they carry quality track records and didn’t show any clear signs of slowing down last season. They and holdover Stefan Crichton look like the top three relievers in a righty-heavy Arizona bullpen, while experienced minor league signings Ryan Buchter, Anthony Swarzak and Chris Devenski are among those vying for spots behind them.

Arizona’s bullpen did struggle in 2020, but its rotation was even worse. Even though the group logged an unappealing 5.04 ERA, the Diamondbacks didn’t make any outside pickups during the offseason.

They’re stuck with Madison Bumgarner, who bombed during the first season of his five-year, $85MM contract, and left to hope he’ll return to something resembling his San Francisco form in 2021. They’ll also need a rebound from Luke Weaver, who was outstanding in 2019 before forearm issues cut him down that season. The 27-year-old recorded a hideous 6.58 ERA in 2020, but that did come with a better SIERA (4.52) and career-high fastball velocity (94.1 mph). Caleb Smith walked almost eight batters per nine during a brief 14-inning season between Miami and Arizona, yet he’s slated to open the season in the D-backs’ rotation after coming over in the teams’ Starling Marte trade over the summer. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are also sure bets, and deservedly so in light of the production they offered in 2020. However, Kelly’s season ended in early September when he underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, which is never an easy procedure for a pitcher to overcome. Nevertheless, having exercised Kelly’s $4.25MM club option at the beginning of the offseason, the Diamondbacks seem confident he’ll bounce back.

The Diamondbacks’ offense didn’t fare much better than their pitching in 2020, as they finished 19th in runs and 26th in wRC+. Right fielder Kole Calhoun may have been their best hitter then, but he’ll miss the start of the season after undergoing knee surgery. Furthermore, before temporarily losing Calhoun, Arizona didn’t do much of anything to improve its offense. Lone free-agent newcomer Asdrubal Cabrera will provide versatility around the infield and give the Diamondbacks a switch-hitter who’s capable of roughly average offense, both of which are pluses, but he isn’t someone who’s going to move the needle much for the club.

To a large degree, the Diamondbacks are betting on rebound efforts and breakouts to lift their offense this year. Center fielder/second baseman Ketel Marte was an MVP-caliber player in 2019, but he was merely ordinary last season. Meanwhile, third baseman Eduardo Escobar and catcher Carson Kelly registered disastrous numbers after impressing in 2019. Calhoun, first baseman Christian Walker, shortstop Nick Ahmed and left fielder David Peralta each put up above-average production last year, though there’s no fearsome presence in that group. The lack of standout talent could leave room for some of the D-backs’ less experienced hitters (e.g., Josh Rojas, Daulton Varsho and Pavin Smith) to establish themselves this season. Rojas has thrived this spring, albeit over a small sample of at-bats, and has a chance to start 2021 as the team’s No. 1 second baseman. Varsho and/or Smith could claim a roster spot with Calhoun on the shelf.

In looking at the Diamondbacks’ roster and division, there’s a strong case general manager Mike Hazen & Co. should have sold, not sit on the fence, during the offseason. PECOTA projects Arizona will win 79 games, which appears to be a reasonable figure and would place them a distant third in the NL West behind Los Angeles and San Diego – both of which are legitimate World Series contenders. Of course, if the Diamondbacks are out of contention as the trade deadline approaches, they could at least shop some of their veterans (Soria, Clippard, Kelly, Cabrera, Calhoun and Escobar, to name several) in an effort to further bolster a farm system that ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranks 10th in the game.

How would you grade the D-backs’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

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The Yankees used the winter to re-sign an American League MVP finalist and gamble on a pair of former high-end starters returning to form.

Major League Signings

  • DJ LeMahieu, 2B: Six years, $90MM
  • Corey Kluber, RHP: One year, $11MM
  • Brett Gardner, OF: Two years, $5.15MM (second season is a player option)
  • Justin Wilson, LHP: Two years, $5.15MM (second season is a player option)
  • Darren O’Day, RHP: Two years, $3.15MMM (second season is a player option)
  • Total spend: $114.45MM

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The biggest question the Yankees faced entering the offseason was whether they would bring back second baseman DJ LeMahieu, who thrived in their uniform from 2019-20 after they signed the ex-Cub and Rockie to a two-year, $24MM contract. LeMahieu turned into one of baseball’s premier players during that two-season stretch, even earning MVP consideration last year, so it was naturally going to cost the Yankees much more this time to keep him in the fold.

Thanks to shortstop Gleyber Torres’ ability to play both middle infield positions, the Yankees could have let LeMahieu walk and seriously pursued a trade for Francisco Lindor or Trevor Story or dipped into free agency for old friend Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien or Andrelton Simmons. Otherwise, they may have left Torres at short and signed, say, second baseman Kolten Wong, though their offense would have taken a major hit in that tradeoff.

LeMahieu garnered serious interest from multiple teams in free agency after rejecting the Yankees’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, but remaining in the Bronx was always his preference. After a drawn-out trip to the open market, the two sides came together on a six-year, $90MM pact. Six years is an especially long deal for a player who will turn 33 in July, but the Yankees made that commitment in an effort to lower the average annual value and skirt the luxury-tax threshold.

Staying under this year’s $210MM tax seemed to be an important offseason theme for the Yankees (whether that should be a concern for such a rich franchise is up for debate), as they didn’t give out any other big guarantees in free agency, instead structuring various deals to lower the AAVs of the contracts. Outfielder Brett Gardner, the Yankees’ longest-tenured player, and relievers Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson are prime examples; they inked pacts which include cheap 2022 player options that they’re unlikely to exercise barring nightmarish results in 2021.

Gardner and Wilson will both earn $2.85MM in 2021 before deciding on player options valued at just $2.3MM. Should they decline that player option, the Yankees would then hold $7.15MM club options over the pair — each with a $1.15MM buyout. Exercising the player option for either player would only mean guaranteeing an additional $1.15MM for himself. In Wilson’s case, that would trigger a third-year club option at the league minimum, making it even less appealing to exercise his player option for 2022. As for O’Day, his $1.4MM player option comes with a $700K buyout even if he declines, so there’s little reason for him to pick up his end of the deal. It’s a complicated series of accounting measures, but the end result was adding three solid veterans while remaining about $3.5MM shy of the luxury threshold.

O’Day and Wilson should help replace Adam Ottavino, who departed in a rare trade with the archrival Red Sox that saved the Yankees more than $8MM (another move driven by the luxury tax). New York’s bullpen figures to be strong yet again, although key setup man Zack Britton is off to an inauspicious start in 2021. The team will go without him for as many as three to four months because of arthroscopic surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. The Yankees kicked off their winter by exercising Britton’s 2022 option for $14MM. Had they declined it, he could have opted for free agency this past offseason.

The Yankees’ starting staff underwent quite a bit of retooling, meanwhile, as mainstay Masahiro Tanaka went back to Japan, J.A. Happ signed with the Twins, and James Paxton reunited with the Mariners. Paxton and Happ were expected to leave, but it was somewhat surprising the Yankees made little effort to retain Tanaka, a quality regular-season performer from 2014-20 who earned a reputation as a big-game pitcher during his run with the club.

Instead of re-signing Tanaka, the Yankees took chances on two-time AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber in free agency and ex-Pirate Jameson Taillon in a trade. The two hurlers are intriguing additions because of their potential, but they’re also wild cards. Kluber’s an ex-Indians workhorse, but the soon-to-be 35-year-old missed most of 2019 with a fractured forearm, and enemy offenses had their way with him during that 35 2/3-inning campaign. As a member of the Rangers last season, he made his first start of the season, lasted one inning and didn’t pitch again on account of shoulder problems. Taillon, 29, produced mid-rotation numbers with the Pirates from 2016-19, but he underwent Tommy John surgery – the second of his career – in the last of those years and didn’t take the mound last season.

Kluber and Taillon are sure bets to begin the year in the Yankees’ rotation, as is ace Gerrit Cole. But Cole seems like the only lead-pipe lock to succeed. As for the rest of the group, Domingo German missed last year because of a domestic violence suspension; Jordan Montgomery endured a trying 2020 in his return from a TJ procedure; Deivi Garcia, Clarke Schmidt (who’s down with an elbow injury) and Michael King carry little major league experience; and former No. 1 Luis Severino sat out almost all of the previous two seasons because of shoulder problems and Tommy John. Severino could come back this summer, but it’s anyone’s guess what he’ll give the Yankees. All things considered, it’s a risky bunch behind Cole.

Fortunately for the Yankees, if their rotation doesn’t live up to the front office’s expectations, the lineup still carries the ability to overwhelm opposing pitching staffs. Sluggers Aaron Judge (right field) and Giancarlo Stanton (designated hitter) missed a large amount of action with various injuries during the previous couple years, but they remain imposing threats at the plate. Elsewhere, LeMahieu and Torres make for one of the top offensive middle infield tandems in the sport; Gardner’s a capable fourth outfielder at the very least; first baseman Luke Voit led the majors in home runs last season; third baseman Gio Urshela carried his 2019 breakout into 2020; left fielder Clint Frazier finally broke out offensively in 2020; and center fielder Aaron Hicks, despite annual low batting averages and some past injury issues, has typically given the Yankees above-average production.

If you’re looking for question marks unrelated to injuries in the Yankees’ offense, catcher Gary Sanchez and outfielder Mike Tauchman come to mind. Sanchez has been inconsistent – sometimes tremendous, sometimes terrible – and was both a non-tender and trade candidate after a disastrous 2020. The Yankees ultimately kept Sanchez around for a $6.35MM salary, though they did explore possible upgrades in free agency when they showed interest in James McCann and Yadier Molina in free agency. Looking into McCann and Molina implies that Sanchez could be skating on thin ice with the organization. For now, he and and backup Kyle Higashioka – Cole’s personal catcher late in the season – remain intact as New York’s top two backstops, but veteran Robinson Chirinos is also in camp.

Tauchman was a great find for the Yankees when they acquired him from the Rockies heading into 2019, as he slashed .277/.361/.504 with 13 homers and accumulated a whopping 18 Defensive Runs Saved among all three outfield positions in 87 games. Tauchman was nowhere near that effective as either a hitter or defender last year, though. Now, with Gardner returning as the primary backup, Jay Bruce and Derek Dietrich in camp, and no minor league options left, it’s possible the Yankees will deal Tauchman in the coming weeks if they don’t think he’s worthy of a roster spot. Former Rookie of the Year runner-up Miguel Andujar also finds himself without an obvious path to regular at-bats, although unlike Tauchman, he has a minor league option remaining, so there’s no immediate need to make a tough decision on the 26-year-old.

Longtime general manager Brian Cashman looks as if he has put together another playoff-caliber roster. The Yankees appear likely to once again pile up plenty of runs in 2021, but whether they’ll be able to jump over the reigning AL East champion Rays, fend off the rapidly improving Blue Jays and then win their first World Series since 2009 will depend largely on how well their high-risk rotation performs.

How would you grade the Yankees’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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It was another quiet winter for the Orioles, who continue to focus on building up their farm and keeping payroll down during a lengthy stretch of lean seasons.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Orioles kicked off the winter with what appeared to be a rather straightforward decision on a $3.5MM club option for shortstop Jose Iglesias. It was somewhat curious that Baltimore waited until the last minute to formally exercise that option, considering that a $500K buyout made it a net $3MM decision, but the end result to pick up the option came as little surprise after a productive season for Iglesias. General manager Mike Elias said after the fact that the option was never in doubt and called his shortstop a “perfect fit for what we need right now.” Iglesias was traded to the Angels 29 days later.

As has regularly been the case for the O’s, their return included a pair of low-level pitchers. Righty Garrett Stallings has yet to appear in a pro game, though he was a 2019 fifth-rounder who is regarded as a polished arm that could quickly move through the ranks and become a back-of-the-rotation starter. Twenty-year-old righty Jean Pinto has just 12 pro innings under his belt and is further from the big leagues. Baseball America rated Stallings as the organization’s No. 26 prospect earlier this winter.

Absent the “perfect fit” comments from Elias, it wouldn’t have been much of a surprise to see Iglesias on the move. The O’s have been willing to listen on any players as they reshape the organization, after all, and as an affordable veteran with one year remaining on his contract, he was a logical player to market. To the Orioles’ credit, they eventually added a similar player in Freddy Galvis, who’ll fill the same role with an even more modest price tag for the coming season.

That proved to be the Orioles’ lone big league free-agent signing this winter, though it wasn’t the only player acquired to help the 2021 roster. Baltimore plucked 2019 Gold Glove winner Yolmer Sanchez off waivers and figures to give the 28-year-old plenty of run at second base. Paired with Galvis, he should form a strong defensive tandem in the middle infield, although Sanchez could eventually face some competition from the player acquired in the Orioles’ other major offseason transaction.

Few would’ve expected the Orioles to be able to both offload some of the remaining $15MM on Alex Cobb’s four-year deal and do so in a trade that brought a young player of some note back to the organization. But the Orioles managed to do just that, shipping Cobb to the Angels in a trade that saved the O’s about $5MM and brought in one-time top prospect Jahmai Jones.

While the 23-year-old Jones has seen his stock dip since he was on the back end of Top 100 lists at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus, he’s still a near-MLB-ready piece who got his feet wet with a three-game call to the Majors for the Halos last year. The Orioles have said he’ll work mostly at second base, but if Sanchez settles in nicely at that spot, Jones does have a good bit of outfield experience as well.

It was a surprising trade on many levels. The market had plenty of mid- and back-of-the-rotation options available around the same price point as Cobb — many who are more durable than Cobb has been. The Angels clearly saw something they like in Cobb more than comparable, available arms (e.g. Rick Porcello), but the market for the right-hander couldn’t have been too strong. The O’s did well to shed some of that contract and add an intriguing young player, even if he’s in need of a rebound.

That said, it’s also worth pointing out that Cobb is still the team’s second-most expensive player. The $10MM they’re paying him to pitch for the Angels is more than they’re paying everyone other than Chris Davis. The money saved in their two trades and series of non-tenders apparently won’t be put back into the 2021 club, so fans will have to simply hope such moves lead to greater spending down the road.

Baltimore had the opportunity to choose among any number of veteran starting pitchers or relievers, but the Orioles settled on minor league deals with some veteran pitchers in dire need of a rebound. Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey haven’t been high-end pitchers since 2015, and Harvey in particular has been clobbered in several stops since his days as Citi Field’s Dark Knight. Hernandez, meanwhile, barely cracked 90 mph with his average fastball in his final year with the Mariners. He opted out of the 2020 season after signing a minor league deal with the Braves. Hernandez was able to survive when his once 95-plus velocity dipped to the 93 mph range, but as it’s continued to drop further, his overall effectiveness has waned.

It’s a stretch to expect Hernandez and Harvey to regain their form at this point, yet that duo joins Wade LeBlanc and Tom Eshelman — both back with the club on minor league deals — as the only additions to the rotation competition. The Orioles have plenty of young arms they’d like to take a look at, some of which will get that chance in 2021. Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer, Zac Lowther, Bruce Zimmerman and Michael Baumann are all on the 40-man roster.

Still, it already feels as though there will be a frequent question of how they’re going to get through a given week of starts. John Means is locked into a rotation spot. The only other starting pitcher on the 40-man roster who has even 30 innings of MLB experience is out-of-options righty Jorge Lopez, who carries a career 6.03 ERA and isn’t even a guarantee to break camp with the team.

There’s something to be said for the pedal-to-the-metal, ultra-aggressive rebuild approach, and perhaps the Orioles will indeed catch lightning in a bottle on Harvey and/or Hernandez. But there’s also something to be said for the value of bringing in some stability to help such an unproven staff, and the Orioles chose not to lock themselves into such a commitment despite myriad options being available over the winter (and even up until the time of this writing). As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted while he and I were chatting about this very subject: the Cubs probably wouldn’t have won the 2016 World Series if they hadn’t signed Scott Feldman in Nov. 2012. The Jake Arrieta trade is an extreme example of cashing in on a veteran placeholder, of course, but there’s value in making such additions and not relying too heavily on younger arms who aren’t accustomed to the rigors of a full MLB season’s workload.

Turning to the lineup, the Orioles didn’t add much beyond Galvis, Sanchez and Jones, and many onlookers — particularly Orioles fans — were stunned to see the club non-tender slugger Renato Nunez. The 26-year-old (27 in April) belted 43 homers from 2019-20 while batting .247/.314/.469 in Baltimore.

However, the Nunez decision was also in many ways foreseeable. He doesn’t walk much, has a higher-than-average strikeout rate and brings minimal defensive value to the table. The home runs are obviously nice, but clubs have stopped paying much for skill sets that are heavy in power but light in OBP and defensive value. That Nunez went unclaimed on waivers and ultimately settled for a minor league deal in Detroit only further underscores that market trend. Hanser Alberto found himself in a similar spot due to marginal on-base skills and a lack of power, and he was also cut loose before settling on a non-guaranteed pact in Kansas City.

While some holes in the game for Nunez and Alberto surely contributed to the Orioles moving on, the decisions were also accelerated by the growing number of MLB-ready bats Baltimore can evaluate in the near term. Austin Hays has seemingly put his injuries behind him and earned another chance to be a regular. Anthony Santander may have had a breakout in right field. Ryan Mountcastle debuted in 2020 and raked through 35 games. DJ Stewart showed some three-true-outcomes intrigue. Rio Ruiz hasn’t given much reason for optimism at third base, but prospect Rylan Bannon is more or less ready for a big league look. Chance Sisco will get another opportunity behind the plate, but uber-prospect Adley Rutschman looms in the minors.

Best of all for the 2021 Orioles, they’ll welcome back their clubhouse leader and best all-around hitter. Slugger Trey Mancini took a leave of absence a year ago around this time, disclosing weeks later that he’d been diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer. Mancini underwent surgery, endured chemotherapy and battled for several months until thrilling fans throughout the game by announcing that he was in remission. It’s been great to see Mancini get back into a game setting, and it’ll be a truly special moment to see him take the field for the Orioles on Opening Day. They’ll no doubt look forward to welcoming his leadership back to the clubhouse and welcoming the bat that produced a .291/.364/.535 slash in 2019 back to the heart of the lineup. For all the questions surrounding the pitching staff, the Baltimore lineup has its share of intriguing hitters.

All in all, the Orioles’ offseason was something of a mixed bag. Both trades of established big leaguers made sense, and the Cobb deal in particular was well-received around the industry. Galvis is a perfectly sensible stopgap option at shortstop, and they operated around the fringes of the 40-man with some waiver claims and Rule 5 adds. The non-tender decisions, while a surprise to some, were at the very least defensible.

At the same time, the Orioles appear set to trot out a $59.5MM payroll despite the fact that the 20 pitchers on their 40-man roster have combined for a total of 1036 2/3 innings at the Major League level. The top depth options they brought in to supplement the group haven’t been big league contributors for years. The hope is that several young arms will claim long-term spots both in the rotation and the bullpen, but the results along the way could be ugly.

How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates ramped up their rebuilding efforts by trading away several key players without adding much in the way of Major League reinforcements.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Ben Cherington’s first year at the helm of the Pirates didn’t result in the aggressive tear-down that many anticipated, although that was in part due to injuries. Chris Archer’s thoracic outlet surgery and a series of health setbacks for Keone Kela took away a pair of obvious chips prior to last summer’s trade deadline.

This offseason, Cherington and his staff got to work on what has long felt like an inevitable tear-down of the previous regime’s roster. Gone are Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon, each traded away for a package of multiple young players — nearly all of whom are several years away from contributing at the Major League level.

Right-hander Wil Crowe is perhaps the lone exception, and he could join the Pirates’ big league roster early in the 2021 season. Crowe doesn’t have huge upside, but he could slot into the back of a Pirates rotation that is in a transitional state after losing Musgrove, Taillon and righty Trevor Williams, who was non-tendered back in December. (Williams went on to sign elsewhere in the division, landing a one-year deal with the Cubs.)

Broadly speaking, the trades of Bell, Musgrove and Taillon are hardly unexpected. The Pirates were baseball’s worst team in 2020 and will be among the worst in 2021 as well. All three members of that trio have just two years of club control remaining, meaning none of them were likely to contribute to the Pirates’ next competitive club.

Still, there’s an argument that the Bucs would’ve been better off holding off on making any deals until this summer. Bell is coming off a miserable .226/.305/.364 showing through 57 games last season. The switch-hitting slugger’s batted-ball profile was encouraging, but his strikeout rate spiked during last year’s abbreviated season. With a big first half, it’s feasible that Bell might’ve been more in demand than he was over the winter, when few clubs were looking for everyday options at first base and/or designated hitter.

Taillon, meanwhile, hasn’t pitched since the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. It was the second such procedure of his career, and he has a fairly lengthy track record of injuries, so perhaps the Pirates didn’t want to risk any further setbacks. One would imagine that had Taillon demonstrated his health and looked effective in Spring Training and early in the season, however, that the Pirates might have been able to fetch a larger return. Musgrove also dealt with injuries in 2020, although he came back and finished the year with his most impressive work of the season.

None of that is intended to pan the returns the Pirates received in those deals. Seven of Pittsburgh’s Top 30 prospects at Baseball America were acquired in those trades, with another two coming via last winter’s Starling Marte swap. Any rebuilding team is faced with trying to find the right balance between trading a player at peak value and hanging onto him too long; the Pirates were burned, to an extent, by hanging onto Kela and Archer, ultimately receiving nothing in return for either player. They took a more risk-averse approach by moving Bell, Taillon and Musgrove now rather than marketing them midseason, but they also ensured themselves a respectable return on each of the three.

That said, it’s also likely that the trades were financially motivated — particularly in the case of Bell, who avoided arbitration with the Nationals by signing a one-year, $6.35MM deal after the trade. Bell, Taillon ($2.55MM) and Musgrove ($4.45MM) will earn a combined $13.35MM in 2021. Williams, whom the club cut loose for nothing, was due a raise on his $2.825MM salary (and eventually signed at $2.5MM). The Bucs lopped more than $15MM off an already modest payroll and opted not to reinvest much into the 2021 roster. They’re currently set to open the year with a team payroll shy of $45MM, the lowest in baseball by a wide margin. (Cleveland is next lowest at about $53MM.)

Pittsburgh’s lone big league signing was a one-year, $2.5MM deal with lefty Tyler Anderson. The former Rockies first-rounder had an up-and-down tenure in Colorado and a decent showing with last year’s Giants, but was non-tendered by San Francisco in December. It’s a reasonable enough price point but a little puzzling as a rebuilding team’s standalone addition of the winter. Anderson has a fairly lengthy injury history, including a pair of knee surgeries. He hasn’t been a bankable source of innings and even at his best has been more of a fourth starter.

In a vacuum, the Anderson signing is perfectly reasonable, but it feels as though it’d be better for the Bucs if Anderson was one of several additions made with the intent of bolstering the rotation after losing three veterans this winter. That’s especially true given that the Pirates could trade either Steven Brault or Chad Kuhl at any point, further depleting their starting options.

As it stands, the Pirates will try to navigate the season with Brault, Kuhl, Anderson, Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker, Crowe, Miguel Yajure and Cody Ponce as their most immediate rotation options. Other internal options will surely arise, but particularly given the possibility of a Kuhl and/or Brault trade, the club could be thin on rotation depth. Non-roster invitees James Marvel, Clay Holmes and Chase De Jong could provide some cover, as could waiver claim Sean Poppen, but this looks like a club that could use another dependable arm or two just to help get through the year.

In the bullpen, the Bucs have some once-touted pitchers (Kyle Crick, Carson Fulmer, Michael Feliz, Chris Stratton) but there’s little in the way of certainty beyond de facto closer Richard Rodriguez. The 31-year-old is quietly among the game’s more effective relievers and should give them a solid option late in games — at least until this summer when Rodriguez is likely to be on the trade market alongside pretty much every other veteran on this roster.

On the position-player side of things, the Bucs picked up some catching depth by claiming Michael Perez from the Rays and inking longtime Rockies catcher Tony Wolters to a non-roster deal. Perez hasn’t hit much in limited big league time, but the 28-year-old has a solid Triple-A track record and gives them a lefty bat to pair with right-handed-hitting Jacob Stallings.

The trade of Bell opens up first base for Colin Moran, though he’ll likely be on the market this summer himself — particularly if he can sustain last year’s uptick in power. Second baseman Adam Frazier was discussed in trades this winter, even as recently as late January, so it’s possible he could still be moved prior to Opening Day. If not, he can expect to hear his name in trade rumors throughout the year.

On the other side of the diamond, former first-rounders Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker will vie for playing time at shortstop. Tucker’s outfield experiment appears to be over, so he’ll get another look at his original position. Both have options remaining. Uber-prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes, meanwhile, should have a clear path to at-bats at the hot corner after last year’s brilliant debut. At least on the surface, gregarious veteran Todd Frazier would seem to have a good chance to make the roster as a backup option at either corner.

Pittsburgh entered the winter without much clarity in the outfield, and several months later, not much has changed. They’ll still hope for a Gregory Polanco rebound that allows them to shed at least some of his contract, while 2019 Rookie of the Year candidate Bryan Reynolds will get a chance at his own rebound in left field.

On paper, the Pirates seemed like a decent landing spot for a non-tendered outfielder with some big league experience and upside — a Hunter Renfroe or David Dahl, for instance — but they opted instead to mine the DFA/waiver market. The Bucs have a pair of former top 100 prospects to compete for time in center field: August waiver claim Anthony Alford and recent trade acquisition Dustin Fowler. They’ll be joined by veteran minor league signee Brian Goodwin, who figures to have a good chance to make the club as well. If Goodwin indeed cracks the roster, he can be controlled through 2022 via arbitration.

No one expected the Pirates to be particularly aggressive spenders in free agency this winter, but it’s still something of a surprise, given the holes on the pitching staff, that the club didn’t bring in some more low-cost help. If nothing else, any such arms could’ve potentially become trade chips this summer, and they’d have helped to prevent the team from over-relying on a collection of pitchers that has been oft-injured and inconsistent. Perhaps ownership simply wanted to keep the payroll as low as possible, and if that’s the case, then mission accomplished; the entire Pirates roster will barely earn more than Trevor Bauer alone will be paid by the Dodgers in 2021.

Winning games in the short-term clearly isn’t a priority for the Pirates as they wade through the arduous tanking process in an effort to stack their draft and international classes over the next few years. We’ve seen many clubs go through this process since the Cubs and Astros won World Series on the backs of full-scale rebuilds, but the returns have diminished over the years as more teams employ the tactic. Perhaps the Pirates will eventually emerge as a division power in the wake of these lean years, but they’re asking fans for an awful lot of patience as they gear up for what looks like another non-competitive season and a top-five pick in 2022.

How would you grade the Pirates’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

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