Archives for February 2020

NL Notes: Dodgers, Cubs, Giants

By TC Zencka | February 9, 2020 at 11:41pm CDT

The Mookie Betts trade is in the books, but now that Joc Pederson is no longer headed to the Angels, the Dodgers will have to sort out their 40-man roster, tweets Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. The Dodgers have 42 players on their 40-man roster at present. Finding a new trade partner for Pederson and/or Ross Stripling might be the most obvious answer, but the Dodgers may prefer not to rush a transaction of that magnitude. Speculatively speaking, Tyler White could find himself on the chopping block, with Kyle Garlick, Zach McKinstry and Edwin Rios other non-established big leaguers whom the Dodgers may need to consider moving or exposing to waivers. While we wait for the final confirmation of this deal to go through, let’s check in elsewhere around the National League…

Theo Epstein saw the writing was on the wall long before the Cubs’ current financial strictures so severely limited their transactional flexibility, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. Epstein references a pattern – the Cubs, Astros, Red Sox – of teams reckoning with their young stars graduating into the arbitration process. After years of supporting homegrown cores with free agent additions in efforts to win a World Series, the Red Sox, Astros and Cubs, for differing reasons, have entered new phases. Sure enough, the Astros had to let Gerrit Cole walk in free agency, the Red Sox just shipped Mookie Betts to the Dodgers, and the Cubs are said to have been shopping Kris Bryant for most of the winter. Of course, the Cubs haven’t yet moved their young stars, but their value has declined. Epstein and company are stuck choosing between trading the stars from the cursebreaking Cubs at lower than peak value and watching them depreciate into a mediocre ballclub. Of course, there’s always the possibility of a bounceback for this Cubs core, but even a return to prominence in the NL Central would not provide the answers Epstein needs when it comes to the futures of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber and company.
The Giants have extended a non-roster spring training invitation to catcher Ricardo Genoves, per Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group. Given the timing, it’s safe to assume Genoves inclusion in the spring cohort comes as a result of the injury that will keep Aramis Garcia out for most of next season. That said, his inclusion is more about gaining a learning experience, and he’s not actually in the running for the Giants’ backup catching spot, per The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly. Still, it seems a good opportunity for the 20-year-old Venezuelan backstop, and perhaps one that will put him on the radar of league officials league-wide. He was signed by the Giants at the open of the international signing period in 2015, but he tapped into real power at the dish for the first time this past season. Genoves managed a .265/.335/.469 line with 9 home runs in 51 games with Salem-Keizer of the Northwest League and Augusta in Low-A.

Pitcher Notes: Rays, Glasnow, Mets, Wacha, Cardinals, Flaherty

By TC Zencka | February 9, 2020 at 9:39pm CDT

While recovering from November wrist surgery, Tyler Glasnow is tinkering with his arsenal. The big right-hander plans on ditching his changeup and replacing it with a splitter, tweets MLB.com’s Juan Toribio . Glasnow’s changeup has never been a primary feature of his arsenal, topping at a 10.3% usage rate in 2017. It also hasn’t been a particularly effective pitch, save for in 2019 when hitters managed to slug just .125 against it, albeit in very limited usage (3.5%). It’s certainly intriguing to dream on a splitter to compliment Glasnow’s two lockdown offerings, but the pitch will have to survive spring training before taking on much (if any) significance. On a night of high drama, let’s check in on a couple other pitchers…

Michael Wacha recognizes the starting depth he will be contending against in Mets camp this spring, but he’s undaunted, per Newsday’s Tim Healey. After all, as Healey points out, Wacha twice fought his way back into the Cardinals rotation last season after time in the bullpen. Of course, that might also be a sign that he’s the likeliest of the Mets’ six rotation candidates to start the year out of the money (both literally and figuratively, given the incentives in Wacha’s contract for games started). Wacha finished last season with a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP across 126 2/3 innings, and he’s only twice crossed the 150 inning threshold. It’ll be an uphill climb for Wacha to make the rotation by opening day, but it’s not impossible. Given the injury rate, there’s a decent chance he finds his way into the rotation at some point in 2020 regardless.
Jack Flaherty isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 season, which means he can’t test free agency until following 2023, but the Cardinals ought to do their due diligence in locking him up now, writes Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Easier said than done of course, especially with a player who has already shown signs of understanding his tremendous value. Frederickson recounts Flaherty’s rejection of the Cardinals salary offer before last season, which cost him $10,000, though the penalty was worth it from Flaherty’s perspective. The statement he was able to make about the current system was of bigger importance to the Cardinals’ ace. That’s a good sign in terms of Flaherty’s character and competitive spirit, but perhaps less so for Cardinals fans hoping for news of an early extension. Flaherty’s displeasure with the arbitration system has little to do with the Cardinals, of course, but after a dominant 2019 in which he posted a 2.75 ERA/3.46 FIP, including a mind-boggling 0.91 ERA in the second half, it’s understandable for Flaherty to be at least a little displeased at making close to the league minimum.

MLBTR Poll: Did The Red Sox Improve Their Return For Mookie Betts?

By TC Zencka | February 9, 2020 at 8:39pm CDT

Five days ago, the Boston Red Sox almost traded 2018 MVP Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-team deal. As we now know, that trade fell apart. Today, it was replaced by a new deal. This time, the Red Sox and Dodgers took matters into their own hands while Los Angeles satisfied their other agreements in a separate deal with the Twins (while yet another portion of the deal was scrapped altogether).

The earth-shattering move here is Boston dealing a former MVP in his prime. Though the Dodgers are only acquiring one season at $27MM, their books are relatively clean, and if nothing else, they are the prohibitive favorite to sign him long-term sometime next winter. But whether the Red Sox were wise to deal their young star – a player with 42 bWAR already on his resume – is not up for debate in this space. There’s clearly lots to sort out in cataloguing the pieces brought in by Dodgers’ President of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman. But this isn’t the venue for that discussion either.

The financial aspect of this deal is difficult to process for many reasons. It’s no small feat to rid $75MM from the ledger in one fell swoop as the Red Sox did today. And yet, that the Boston Red Sox would be financially motivated to move one of the best players in the sport is beyond comprehension. Still, the financial numbers stayed relatively the same from version one to version two of this deal, so that can be tabled as well for now.

This space is all about parsing the Red Sox’ return. Let’s quickly review the specifics.

In version one, the Red Sox were to receive two players: Alex Verdugo from the Dodgers and Brusdar Graterol from the Twins. This time around, prospects Jeter Downs and Connor Wong are heading to Boston with Verdugo. Without seeing the medical reports that gave the Red Sox pause over Graterol, the two frameworks provide a fun what-if for the rest of us to ponder. The question here is obvious: should the Red Sox have stuck with Graterol? Or did they improve their return by swapping in Downs and Wong?

Graterol surged through the Twins’ system last season, reaching the majors less than a week after his 21st birthday. The hard-throwing righty earned his keep in a small sample, striking out 10 batters in 9 2/3 innings and finishing with a 4.66 ERA/3.42 FIP. MLB.com put him at #83 on their top 100 prospects list, while Baseball America came in a little more bullish with a #60 overall ranking. His talent isn’t in doubt – not with a sinker and four-seamer both clocked at 99 mph – but questions about his long-term health drove the the Red Sox to check behind door number two. If Graterol’s ceiling is that of a bullpen fireman, that’s a valuable asset – especially come playoff time. But even a move to the bullpen doesn’t guarantee the long-term viability of his right arm. Still, pitchers with Graterol’s stuff are rare birds and valuable commodities – even with one arm surgery already on the books.

Then there’s door number two. Downs had a big season at High-A last year after the Dodgers acquired him as the tax for taking on Homer Bailey in the Alex Wood/Yasiel Puig trade with the Reds. The 21-year-old Downs hit .269/.354/.507 in High-A before earning a promotion to Double-A in 2019. He showed well there, too, though only in a 12-game sample. He is likely to begin the year at Double-A for the Red Sox, but he’s climbing prospect boards. MLB.com put him at #44 overall, while Baseball America has him at #86. Most outlets peg him as the second baseman of the future, though he’s played more shortstop than second to this point.

Wong, 23, started the year at High-A last season as well. He finished exceptionally strong, however, putting up an impressive .349/.393/.604 line through 40 games in Double-A. Despite those gaudy numbers, he’s not as highly ranked. His power is legit, but he does strike out nearly 30% of the time, and he’s not yet walking at an average rate. Fangraphs’ had him as the Dodger’s #13 ranked prospect last season with a future value score of 40+, talent level appropriate for a bench role. For contract, Fangraphs has both Downs and Grateral with a 50 FV score. Were those ratings to come to fruition, Downs would project as an average regular, while Graterol could project as a back-end starter or potential late-inning reliever.

The debate largely centers on how much one wants to gamble on a high-end pitcher. But even the aerial view minimizes how much this deal really hinges upon the specific players involved.

To add one final wrinkle to this question, let me add this tweet from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. He says, “A number of baseball people saying #RedSox did well. Verdugo, Downs, project as regulars; Wong has good arm, power. Also moved half Price’s money. Deal at least comparable to what #DBacks got for Goldy, who cost less than Betts in walk year and had no other contracts attached.”

Whether you agree with Rosenthal’s people or not, the Paul Goldschmidt deal is certainly an interesting touchstone. Just a year ago, the Diamondbacks received Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andy Young and a competitive balance round B draft selection in exchange for one season of Goldy. For simplified context, Betts is a 27-year-old stellar defensive right fielder coming off a 6.8 bWAR season, while Goldschmidt was a 31-year-old first baseman coming off a 5.4 bWAR season.

Of course, the dollar savings factor into a comparison to the Goldschmidt trade, as Goldy made just $14.5MM last season. The Diamondbacks trade was motivated more about returning value for a player they weren’t likely to extend. The Red Sox motivations are similar, though they’re also getting out from under David Price’s contract. Not for nothing, but Price remains a viable major league starter.

Also muddying the waters here is how one views Verdugo’s future. He’s long been a player projected for stardom, though a deep player pool and injuries slowed his ascent in Los Angeles. And there remain questions about his overall makeup as well. Still, he’ll turn just 24-years-old in May, and it wasn’t long ago that he was the top prospect in a Dodgers’ system that has continued to churn out big league players.

Last season was his first with regular playing time, and he made good with a .294/.342/.475 line with 12 home runs in 106 games before an oblique strain cost him most of the rest of the year. He’s got great bat-to-ball skills, and his defense is solid enough that he can man centerfield for a time if that’s a need. He’s a promising young player, but he’ll have big shoes to fill in Boston.

I’m giving you the chance to overrule Boston’s Chief Baseball Office Chaim Bloom. Which return would you prefer?

(Poll link for app users)

Joc Pederson To Angels Trade Falls Through

By TC Zencka | February 9, 2020 at 6:58pm CDT

At least one leg of the Mookie Betts marathon trade has fallen through. The Dodgers and Angels will not complete their previously agreed upon deal, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The nails of the deal would have sent Joc Pederson , Ross Stripling and prospect Andy Pages to the Angels in exchange for Luis Rengifo.

Angels owner Arte Moreno was reportedly unhappy with the delay of the original deal, but it’s unclear if that’s the driving factor in the breakdown of this deal. Per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, the terms of the original deal were dependent upon the original Betts trade. The final iteration of the deal that landed Betts in Los Angeles made this subsequent trade “unnecessary.” It’s entirely unclear at this time if the Dodgers or Angels are putting the kibosh on the deal at this stage, per Rosenthal.

It doesn’t make a lot of intuitive sense that the newest iteration of the Betts trade would make the Pederson leg moot. The new trade actually sends an additional outfielder to the Dodgers (Luke Raley from Minnesota), as well as an additional pitcher in Brusdar Graterol who could fill much the same role that Stripling has in years past. They are also sending money to Minnesota, which would presumably encourage the egress of player payroll in the form of Pederson and/or Stripling. With Betts, Cody Bellinger, and some collection of A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, Matt Beaty and Enrique Hernandez on hand to man the outfield (before dipping into their depth in Triple-A), Pederson certainly represents a moveable piece.

He should be an attractive trade chip at that, given his affordable $7.75MM expiring contract this season and ~127 wRC+ over the past two seasons. The Dodgers shouldn’t struggle to find a trade partner for Stripling either, should they reengage on that front. Stripling is owed just $2.1MM this season and he’s controllable for another two beyond. The Dodgers have been able to somewhat protect the 30-year-old because of their depth, but he has nonetheless put up solid numbers: 3.51 ERA/3.60 FIP across 387 innings over the past four seasons with an All-Star appearance to his credit. It certainly makes sense for somebody to give Stripling the opportunity to start full-time, should the Dodgers look to move him again.

Dodgers Acquire Mookie Betts, David Price

By George Miller and TC Zencka | February 9, 2020 at 6:05pm CDT

6:05PM: Nearing the finish line. The medicals are done and it appears as if all we’re waiting on is approval from the league, per the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com adds that the players are being notified. In his words: “That’s usually a final step.”

4:42PM: The Dodgers and Red Sox have once again agreed to a trade that will send outfielder Mookie Betts and lefty David Price to the Dodgers, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The Red Sox will include $48MM to cover half of the remaining salary on David Price’s contract. In this updated version of the deal, Alex Verdugo, minor league shortstop Jeter Downs, and catching prospect Connor Wong comprise the package heading to Boston. If we haven’t learned our lesson, the deal is pending medical reviews.

This trade will be accompanied by a separate agreement between the Dodgers and Twins that will send Kenta Maeda to Minnesota in exchange for right-hander Brusdar Graterol, with other pieces involved. Those players were involved in the first iteration of the megadeal, which is now two distinct trades between the same three teams. Notably, Graterol will now join the Dodgers, whereas he was previously destined for Boston.

The revised deal comes several days after the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Twins agreed in principle to a three-team trade of a similar complexion. That deal, of course, was held up by the Red Sox’ concerns over Graterol’s medical records. That saga reached a dramatic point yesterday, when the Twins’ pessimism about their end of the deal created a major roadblock in the path towards a completed trade.

Instead, the Red Sox get a pair of prospects along with their new starting right fielder in exchange for Betts while getting out from under half of the $96MM owed to David Price. Downs could be the heir apparent to Dustin Pedroia at second base. Connor Wong also slots into a position group of relatively weakness for the Red Sox’ system. With the financial savings, Boston should have no trouble accomplishing their goal of skirting the luxury tax as well.

Latest On Mookie Betts Trade Talks

By George Miller | February 9, 2020 at 1:45pm CDT

1:40PM: Momentum towards a deal is building and there’s increased optimism that a trade—or trades—will take place, and there’s a chance that an announcement could come as early as today, according to Neal. The Twins and Dodgers are in direct discussions and Heyman reports that their part of the deal is “pretty set,” with Maeda heading to the Twins and Graterol going the other way. For what it’s worth, Neal adds that the Twins are now “expected to get a little more” than Maeda. If Heyman is correct, then the last remaining hurdle will be for the Dodgers to refine their package for Betts. Speculatively, that could involve Graterol being flipped to Boston, but the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier tweeted earlier that Graterol isn’t expected to be dealt to the Red Sox as part of any trade.

10:11AM: The Twins are indeed still involved in talks, though that doesn’t necessarily mean a three-team trade is happening, as Jon Heyman and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal explain (both links to Twitter). The Twins “are working hard to satisfy [the] Dodgers and the Dodgers are working hard to satisfy [the] Red Sox, ” Rosenthal writes, but negotiations could result in two separate trades. One deal between the Dodgers and Red Sox would send Verdugo and prospects to Boston and Betts and Price to L.A., and another swap between the Dodgers and Twins would see Maeda go to Minnesota and Graterol possibly be part of a trade package going to Los Angeles. As Heyman notes, “non-Boston docs seem to have no big issue with Graterol [medicals],” so the Dodgers might be satisfied in accepting the young righty in exchange for Maeda.

TODAY, 8:51AM: The involved parties are “hopeful” that a Betts trade can be worked out, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, as there has been “progress” in talks. Notably, Heyman tagged the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Twins in his tweet, which could hint that a three-team arrangement is still possible.

FEBRUARY 8: The Twins’ portion of the proposed three-team trade that would send Mookie Betts to the Dodgers is in jeopardy, according to La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Talks between the Twins, Dodgers, and Red Sox are ongoing and the current iteration of the trade is not entirely dead, according to reports from Joel Sherman of the New York Post and others, but the Twins have requested a prompt resolution one way or another. It seems there’s growing pessimism about the Twins’ involvement in the trade, so the Dodgers and Red Sox may have to explore alternative pathways towards its completion.

As part of the trade, the Twins were expected to send right-hander Brusdar Graterol to the Red Sox, receiving Kenta Maeda in return and allowing the Dodgers to acquire Betts and David Price. However, after the Red Sox balked at Graterol’s medical history with questions about his long-term role, they requested another prospect from the Twins and talks have stalled. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggests that the Twins have expressed a willingness to include one of their top-20 prospects to push the deal across the goal line, but even that hasn’t met the Red Sox’ heightened asking price.

If the Twins do indeed back out of the deal, the Dodgers and Red Sox could still try to complete the trade themselves or rope in a new third team to facilitate the mega-deal. For the time being, though, the prospect of a Betts trade appears to have hit a considerable setback. With the Red Sox’ insistence on acquiring another of the Twins’ top prospects and Minnesota’s reluctance to concede, little progress has been made since the deal was first reported on Tuesday and something will have to give if the trade is to be completed.

In its entirety, the trade would have sent Betts and David Price to the Dodgers, while Alex Verdugo and Graterol would wind up in Boston with Maeda joining the Twins. In addition, the Dodgers and Angels had agreed in principle to a separate trade that would send Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling to the crosstown Angels in exchange for Luis Rengifo and unidentified prospects. That deal, though, was contingent on the completion of the Dodgers/Red Sox/Twins swap and now itself appears in limbo.

Many around the game have voiced their frustration with the drama that has resulted from the Red Sox’ hesitation. MLBPA head Tony Clark, agent Scott Boras, and Angels owner Arte Moreno have all commented on the wide-ranging consequences of the delay. And with pitchers and catchers reporting to camp in the coming days, some of the players involved could be placed in awkward situation in which they would return to a team that has essential already agreed to trade them.

So while the Boston faithful may rejoice that their star outfielder remains with the team for the time being, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which Betts, or any of the players involved, reports to Spring Training with their original teams. That alone should provide ample impetus to finalize the trade in short order. Whether that means the Red Sox following through with the trade as originally agreed to, or the inclusion of another piece to appease Boston, we’ll have to wait and find out.

Latest On Yasiel Puig

By Jeff Todd | February 9, 2020 at 11:15am CDT

TODAY: Negotiations between the Giants and Puig are “all but dead,” according to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Puig isn’t a priority for the team now that Pence and Billy Hamilton have been added to San Francisco’s outfield mix.

FEBRUARY 7: Yasiel Puig has been the top dog on the free agent market for over a week now. His market situation remains largely unclear, though a few new tidbits of information have emerged today.

Both the Rays and Giants have given some indication of interest in the 29-year-old outfielder, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link) and Robert Murray (via Twitter). It’s not clear in either case just how extensive the interest is.

Trouble is, both teams face some rather clear limitations on paper. The San Francisco club made quite a bit more sense before they reportedly struck a deal today with Hunter Pence. It’s still possible to imagine a fit, but that’d mean crowding out some of the players to whom the team has seemingly wished to provide opportunities.

Down in Tampa Bay, chasing after Puig would presumably represent a value-driven proposition. After all, there’s no need from a roster perspective. The Rays already have two righty bats in their corner outfield mix in Hunter Renfroe and Jose Martinez. No doubt the budget-conscious club would only move on Puig if it gets a bargain and/or has other machinations in mind for making a late tweak to its roster mix.

As we covered in the above-linked post, there are some other conceivable fits on paper. But as yet we haven’t heard of keen interest from many of the teams that could possibly match. With only a week or so left until camps open, it’ll be interesting to see how this situation develops.

AL East Notes: Morton, Betts, Margot, Blue Jays, Wood, Sanchez

By Mark Polishuk | February 9, 2020 at 9:00am CDT

Former Astros righty Charlie Morton became the latest player to address Houston’s electronic sign-stealing scandal, telling MLB.com’s Juan Toribio and other reporters that “personally, I regret not doing more to stop it” during his time with the club in 2017, while also admitting that he wasn’t certain what steps he could have taken to directly halt the sign-stealing system. Morton has already spoken to some Rays teammates about the situation, and added that he didn’t believe the Astros were still doing anything illicit last October, when Houston defeated Tampa Bay in the ALDS.

2017 was a particularly unique year for Morton, as he wasn’t just a big part of a World Series-winning team, but his entire career was revived while pitching for the Astros, turning him from a borderline journeyman to his current top-of-the-rotation status in Tampa. Despite his own fond memories, however, Morton knows and accepts that the Astros’ achievements have been overshadowed by the scandal. “Certainly the public perception of that win has changed, and my peers, too….There are moments during the World Series that will always be special to me, that won’t be ’tainted.’ But certainly that’s justified, that’s a justified perception to have, and what people have expressed,” Morton said.

Blue Jays Designate Breyvic Valera For Assignment

By Mark Polishuk | February 9, 2020 at 6:32am CDT

The Blue Jays have designated infielder Breyvic Valera for assignment, as per a team announcement. The move creates a roster spot for right-hander Rafael Dolis, whose one-year deal (with a club option) with the Jays became official yesterday.

Valera appeared in five games for Toronto in late September, after the Jays plucked him off the Yankees’ roster via a waiver claim. With such veterans as Joe Panik and Ruben Tejada already lined up as utility infield options in Spring Training camp, Valera was likely deemed expendable. Should another team claim Valera during his latest trip through the DFA process, it will mark the sixth time in less than two years that Valera has switched uniforms.

Over 54 career Major League games since the start of the 2017 season, Valera has already played for five different teams — the Blue Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, and Cardinals, who originally signed him back in 2010. (Valera also had a brief stint in the Giants’ farm system last season.) The best-known of those transactions, by far, is Valera’s inclusion as part of the trade package sent from the Dodgers to Baltimore for Manny Machado in July 2018, though Valera was something of a throw-in rather than a key factor in the deal.

The 28-year-old Valera has only a .592 OPS over 138 plate appearances in the big leagues, but he has performed reasonably well at the minor league level, hitting .299/.360/.397 over 4099 PA. Valera has mostly worked as a second baseman, though since his best path to the Show is as a utility player, he also has quite a bit of experience around the diamond at every position besides catcher and pitcher.

Astros Rotation Status

By TC Zencka | February 9, 2020 at 12:23am CDT

The Astros have lots on their plate after a difficult couple of weeks in the public eye, but they have on-field issues at hand as well. Now that the manager and GM are in place, the focus can soon return to the field. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke make for an enviable top of the rotation, but there’s uncertainty beyond their veteran aces, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart.

Lance McCullers Jr. will return from elbow surgery to man the third spot in the rotation, and after his strong performance in the postseason, Jose Urquidy has a good chance of claiming one of the two remaining slots. But with a new GM and manager stepping in, there’s a potential clean slate working against the otherwise favored.

A host of candidates are on hand to push Urquidy and contend for the final rotation role. Brad Peacock and Austin Pruitt are the veterans with rotation experience on hand, with either one capable of taking turns in the rotation.

Beyond the vets, there are a host of young arms capable of proving their readiness and stepping into the rotation. Josh James, Bryan Abreu, Framber Valdez, Forrest Whitley, Austin Pruitt, Cy Sneed and Francis Martes. There’s more at stake in this arms race, as there are three to four bullpen spots available for those left out of the dugout.

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