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Archives for March 2020

Health Notes: Judge, Lowrie, Alvarez, Turner

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Strap in for a very mysterious batch of health updates from spring training…

  • Aaron Judge’s health status seems to be unknown to just about everyone right now. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com spoke today with Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, who said that Judge is going through a “car wash” of tests. “He’s obviously going through a series of tests,” Cashman said. “It’s not like one or two, it’s a number approaching seven to 10 total, so they can make sure they have a full evaluation and determine what ails him. When they’re complete, we’ll either be able to tell you we’re in the clear or we’ll be able to tell you that we have a full diagnosis and the timeframe and everything else like that.” Stay tuned.
  • As if trying to outdo Cashman in providing non-answers, Mets infielder Jed Lowrie gave this update about his own status to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. “I have to refer you to the organization.” After referring to the organization via general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, DiComo still got no timeline. Though Van Wagenen did say they are looking into a “transitional” brace to help him get on the field. Lowrie appeared in just nine games for the Mets last year. And it’s unclear if he’ll be able to top that in 2020.
  • Astros outfielder Yordan Álvarez will sit out “three or four days” because of “knee soreness,” according to Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle. Astros manager Dusty Baker says that they’re “going to try to take it easy on him for at least three days.” This is potentially worrying for Astros fans because, as Young notes, Álvarez was playing through similar knee issues last year, although they didn’t stop him from producing Rookie of the Year-winning numbers.
  • And finally, the clearest news of the bunch: Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner was hit by a pitch on the back of his hand, but the X-ray came back negative (Twitter links from Ken Gurnick). If you need any more evidence of Turner being fine, he hit a home run between the HBP and the X-ray.

Pedro Strop On Cubs’ Interest In Free Agency

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This past offseason was not one to remember for the Cubs, a big-market, high-payroll team that spent a mere $3.5MM on free agents after failing to make the playoffs in 2019. The club also lost quite a few of its own notable free agents, including reliever Pedro Strop, even though the right-hander revealed Wednesday that Chicago had interest in retaining him.

“They did try hard to bring me back. It’s just money-wise, they couldn’t, because they weren’t allowed [with] all the salary cap stuff; they wanted to try to stay below,” Strop said (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times).

The 34-year-old Strop, a Cub from 2013-19, ended up with the National League Central rival Reds on a modest single-season pact worth $1.825MM. The Cubs weren’t even willing to go to those lengths for Strop, however, thanks in part to their desire to stay under the luxury tax (not the nonexistent salary cap) this year. They were one of three teams that had to pay the tax in 2019, when they were forced to fork over a $7.6MM bill. The threshold then was $206MM, but it has climbed to $208MM for 2020. Although they spent next to nothing over the winter, the Cubs project to start this season about $6MM over that mark, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs.

Should the tax really be a concern for the deep-pocketed Cubs? Arguably not. Regardless, there’s a case that the Cubs won’t get hurt by letting Strop walk, even though a divisional foe grabbed him for a relatively inexpensive guarantee. Strop was an excellent late-game option for a large portion of his tenure in Chicago, but he took noticeable steps backward last year. For example, Strop posted the worst full-season run prevention marks of his career (4.97 ERA/4.53 FIP) and one of his highest walk rates (4.32 per nine) across 41 2/3 innings. Furthermore, after averaging more than 95 mph on his fastball in each of his prior seasons as a Cub, his mean velocity dropped to 93.7 in 2019. A Strop rebound remains possible, though, and the Cubs are left to hope he doesn’t return to his old form for a Reds team that bought low on him.

Latest On Boston’s Rotation

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Ever since last week’s news that Chris Sale will begin the 2020 season on the injured list, there has been much speculation about how the Red Sox would fill his absence. Even though it currently seems that he won’t need to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery, the team will still need to replace him in some fashion.

It was recently revealed that the Boston brass are open-minded as to how they go about filling Sale’s innings, having put the opener strategy on the table.

Jason Mastrodonato of The Boston Herald spoke with Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke, who gave some details about a presentation from chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. (Bloom, of course, was with the Rays when they pioneered the use of the opener.)

Roenicke outlined that they are still considering using two openers, as well as using some pitchers to “pitch three innings every three days.”

It seems the approach is still in a very speculative stage. One element being considered is the stretching out of Darwinzon Hernández. Before last year, Hernández had primarily been a starter in the minors. But 2019 saw him oscillate between starting and the bullpen, making 12 starts and and five appearances at two minor levels to go along with one start and 28 relief appearances in the big leagues. What form his contribution will take in 2020 seems to still be up in the air.

“We talked about it again a couple days ago,” Roenicke said, “and I think that talk is probably going to continue on with him. Especially the better he does at more innings, we’ll probably keep talking about it. Maybe he’s at two innings and then goes to three. Then we’re like, ‘OK, do we try this guy and see how he does starting?’ Those conversations I imagine will probably happen through the years.”

Another name to watch out for is Ryan Weber, according to Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. Abraham notes that the Red Sox are trying to maximize Weber’s five-pitch mix by increasing the use of his cutter.

Much like Hernández, Weber’s position within the staff doesn’t seem to be locked down. But that doesn’t seem to be bothering him. “If I get the ball in the first inning or the third inning, I’m going to pitch the way I pitch,” Weber said. “I’m comfortable starting or relieving.” Weber made 16 starts for the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox in 2019. But at the big league level, only three of his 18 appearances were starts.

The bottom line seems to be that all options are being kept open for now.  As Roenicke says, “I think we’re still hoping that one of these guys that we’re looking at in camp is going to ‘wow’ us basically and we know we can go with him as a starter every fifth day,” he said. “So I think that’s what we’re waiting for.”

If Hernández and Weber don’t provide that ’wow’ factor, Boston does have other options, as recently outlined by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne. Though the Fenway faithful will surely be hoping for Sale’s speedy recovery and that whatever emergency measures are required are only temporary fixes.

MLBTR Poll: Eloy’s Second Season

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The White Sox made a significant investment in Eloy Jimenez before he ever played a major league game, signing the outfielder to a six-year, $43MM extension last March, and it already looks like a wise decision. The deal Jimenez inked was then a record pact for a prospect with no major league service time, but teammate and fellow outfielder Luis Robert eclipsed that mark when he landed a six-year, $50MM guarantee this past winter.

In signing Jimenez, the White Sox obviated the need to manipulate his service time, clearing the way for the then-consensus top prospect to spend all of the 2019 campaign in the majors. Jimenez didn’t get off to a great start in the first few months of his age-22 season, but his production trended way upward in the second half, leading to an above-average batting line of .267/.315/.513 (116 wRC+) with 31 home runs over 504 plate appearances. And Statcast backed up that production, crediting Jimenez with a .349 expected weighted on-base average (compared to a real wOBA of .343), a hard-hit percentage in the majors’ 92nd percentile and an average exit velocity that ranked in the 87th percentile.

If you want red flags from Jimenez’s rookie season, a couple stand out. For one, even during his second-half surge, he didn’t draw many free passes. His 6 percent walk rate sat well below the league-average mark of 8.5. On the defensive side, Jimenez wasn’t exactly a Gold Glover in left field. Despite finishing in the game’s 70th percentile in Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric, he ended with minus-11 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-11 Outs Above Average and a minus-5.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in the grass. Jimenez’s defensive struggles helped limit him to 1.9 fWAR and 1.4 bWAR during his initial campaign, essentially rendering him an average performer.

The long-suffering White Sox now have designs on being much better than average, considering how active they were in upgrading their roster during the offseason. A sizable leap in overall output from Jimenez in Year 2 of his career could go a long way in helping the team accomplish that in 2020. The question is: How productive do you think he’ll be this season? (Poll links for app users)

Predict Jimenez's OPS
.830-859 30.29% (1,248 votes)
.860-899 27.74% (1,143 votes)
.800-.829 18.13% (747 votes)
.900 or better 16.70% (688 votes)
Under .800 7.14% (294 votes)
Total Votes: 4,120
Predict Jimenez's WAR
2.0-2.9 41.94% (1,649 votes)
3.0-3.9 31.74% (1,248 votes)
4.0 or better 12.79% (503 votes)
1.0-1.9 10.76% (423 votes)
Under 1.0 2.77% (109 votes)
Total Votes: 3,932

8 AL East Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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After taking a look at eight American League East hitters hoping to bounce back from down seasons in 2020, we’ll do the same here with an octet of the division’s pitchers…

Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Red Sox:

The flamethrowing Eovaldi was one of Boston’s many heroes during its World Series run in 2018, convincing the team to re-sign him to a four-year, $68MM contract thereafter. But the first year of the pact was a disaster for both sides, as Eovaldi missed significant time with elbow problems and didn’t perform well when he was able to pitch. The 30-year-old wound up with career-worst numbers in ERA (5.99), FIP (5.90) and BB/9 (4.66), thereby offsetting a personal-high K/9 of 9.31. There’s optimism he’ll rebound this year, which would be a boon for a Red Sox team that just traded David Price and has seen elbow issues weigh down Chris Sale this spring.

Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox:

Speaking of Sale, the longtime ace simply didn’t deliver the type of results we had grown accustomed to seeing last season. The 30-year-old was still awfully good, notching 13.32 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9, but turned in a bloated ERA (4.40) and FIP (3.39) in comparison to prior campaigns. He also saw his mean fastball velocity dip by over a mile an hour from the prior couple years, as he averaged 93.2 mph with the pitch. That’s not what the Red Sox wanted after signing Sale to a five-year, $145MM extension last spring. Considering that deal won’t even take effect until this season, it’ll be all the worse for the Red Sox if his current elbow injury proves to be serious.

Blake Snell, LHP, Rays:

Like Sale, Snell turned in fine numbers last year. However, in terms of bottom-line production, he wasn’t the Cy Young winner we witnessed the previous season, owing in part to elbow troubles that required arthroscopic surgery in late July. Snell ultimately totaled 107 innings of 4.29 ERA/3.32 FIP ball after putting up 1.89 and 2.85 in those respective categories during the prior campaign. There was still plenty to like, however, including 12.36 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9, a fastball that stayed in the 95-96 mph range and swinging-strike rate (17.7) that climbed more than 2.5 percent from his superb 2018 effort. Once again, though, there are some health questions in play. Snell may miss the start of the regular season after undergoing a cortisone shot in his elbow last week.

Jose Alvarado, LHP, Rays:

He was somewhat quietly among the elite relievers in baseball in 2018, but last year didn’t go nearly as well for Alvarado. The 24-year-old did average a whopping 98.2 mph on his fastball and strike out 11.7 batters per nine, though an untenable walk rate (8.1 BB/9, up almost double from the previous season) led to a 4.80 ERA/4.18 FIP in 30 innings. To be fair to Alvarado, he wasn’t healthy all that often in 2019, missing time with oblique and elbow injuries. He also sat out for a while because of a family matter.

J.A. Happ, LHP, Yankees:

Happ had a career-best stretch with multiple teams from 2015-18, which persuaded the Yankees to re-sign him to a two-year, $34MM contract heading into 2019. The decision doesn’t look great so far, though, as Happ stumbled to a 4.91 ERA/5.22 FIP in 161 2/3 innings last season. Along the way, his strikeouts per nine (7.81) dropped by almost two full batters from the previous season, while his home run-to-fly ball rate (18.3) jumped by about 5 percent. Now, it’s imperative for the Yankees that they get a bounce-back effort from Happ, considering the well-documented hardships they’re suddenly facing in their rotation. And there’s a lot at stake for the 37-year-old Happ, whose $17MM option for 2021 will vest if he accumulates 165 innings or 27 starts this season.

Alex Cobb, RHP, Orioles:

Back and hip injuries limited Cobb to just three starts in 2019 (all in April), the second season of a four-year, $57MM contract that has blown up in Baltimore’s face so far. Cobb had a horrific time in the 12 1/3 innings he did pitch last year, yielding 15 earned runs on 21 hits (including an eye-popping nine homers).

Mychal Givens, RHP, Orioles:

Givens was an oft-rumored trade candidate throughout last season, but the Orioles decided not to sell low on him during a career-worst year. Like many pitchers in 2019, the 29-year-old proved extremely susceptible to the home run, giving them up on 22.8 percent of fly balls en route to a 4.57 ERA/4.50 FIP with eight blown saves in 19 attempts; he also registered a below-average walk rate of 3.71 per nine. On the bright side, though, Givens fanned a career-high 12.29 batters per nine and continued to average better than 95 mph on his fastball. With this being his penultimate year of team control, Givens continues to look like a trade candidate for Baltimore, but the team won’t get a max return if he doesn’t revisit his old form.

Richard Bleier, LHP, Orioles:

Despite a dearth of strikeouts and a lack of velocity, Bleier offered lights-out results as a member of the Yankees’ and Orioles’ bullpens from 2016-18. Last year was more of the same in terms of strikeouts, walks and grounders (4.88 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 59.9 percent GB rate), but the run prevention wasn’t there. Bleier ended up with a horrid 5.37 ERA (with a more encouraging 4.19 FIP) over 55 1/3 innings. While Bleier continued to hold down same-handed hitters, who posted a weak .238 weighted on-base average off him, righties tattooed him for a .410 wOBA. In other words, the average righty hit like the 2019 version of Anthony Rendon against Bleier.

Cubs Targeted Dinelson Lamet, Others In Previous Kris Bryant Talks With Padres

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The Cubs and Padres discussed various scenarios involving third baseman Kris Bryant but were (obviously) unable to come to an agreement, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune reports. Specifically, the Cubs showed interest in right-hander Dinelson Lamet. Catching prospect Luis Campusano was also a potential target.

It’s hardly a shock to see the pitching-needy Cubs pursuing a controllable big league arm like Lamet. The 27-year-old returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019 and gave the Padres 73 innings (14 starts) of 4.07 ERA ball with a massive 13.0 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 and 1.48 HR/9. Lamet averaged 96.1 mph on his heater and posted a gaudy 14 percent swinging-strike rate in addition to high-end spin rates on his heater and breaking ball.

Beyond Lamet’s ability to miss bats, he’s controlled for four seasons, which surely holds appeal considering the Cubs could see both Jon Lester and Jose Quintana hit free agency next winter. His fit on the 2020 club would be clear as well; currently, the Cubs’ hope is that Tyler Chatwood can hold down the fifth starter’s role — a task that he hasn’t been up to in either of the first two seasons of his ill-fated three-year, $38MM deal. Installing Lamet as a fifth option behind Lester, Quintana, Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks would’ve been considered an upgrade.

Lamet, though, is also viewed as a key part of the Padres’ 2020 plans. He’s expected to hold down a rotation spot alongside Chris Paddack, Garrett Richards, Zach Davies and Joey Lucchesi. The back of the Padres’ rotation will be a bit in flux as their wave of high-end prospects — headlined by MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino — continue to push toward the big leagues. Lamet, though, has perhaps the highest upside of anyone other than Paddack in that initial quintet.

The 21-year-old Campusano, meanwhile, has significantly elevated his status over the past year. A second-round pick back in 2017, Campusano hit .325/.396/.509 in 487 plate appearances against against much older competition in Class-A Advanced in 2019. He’s now widely considered to be among the game’s 100 best prospects — ranking as high as No. 33 overall in the estimation of ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

While Bryant wouldn’t exactly be a clean fit into the Padres’ lineup in terms of position, his bat would represent a major upgrade to a Padres team that collectively batted .238/.308/.410 — good for just an 88 wRC+ that ranked 24th among Major League clubs. But with Manny Machado entrenched at third base and Fernando Tatis Jr. slotted in at shortstop — Machado’s other position — fitting Bryant into the mix would be a bit tougher.

Bryant does have experience in the outfield corners, but the Padres aren’t really short on options there, either (Tommy Pham, Wil Myers, Trent Grisham, Franchy Cordero). Bryant would clearly be the best hitter of the bunch, but San Diego acquired both Pham and Grisham this winter, and Myers’ contract ensures that he’ll be a part of the mix in some capacity. Acee does note that while the Padres were willing to consider moving Tatis to center field in the event of a Francisco Lindor acquisition, that scenario wasn’t a consideration when contemplating a Bryant swap.

At this point, the chances of any deal involving Bryant look to be minimal. The former Rookie of the Year and MVP has already had a sit-down with Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein — a meeting from which he came away with the impression that he’ll be remaining in Chicago. Their asking price could be informative in the event that Bryant once again hits the market, however, and it also speaks to the manner in which the Friars value both Lamet and Campusano.

Rangers View Danny Santana As Primary Center Fielder

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Rangers manager Chris Woodward said today that long-time utilityman Danny Santana will see most of the action in center field to open the year, as MLB.com’s TR Sullivan reports on Twitter.

That’s hardly surprising, as the team has long signaled this arrangement after the offseason dust settled. But there was some new uncertainty when the Rangers began running Nick Solak up the middle.

So, does this mean the end of the Solak experiment? Not necessarily. Woodward says the hitter in search of a position has actually looked fairly comfortable since trying out the new spot.

Solak, 25, has limited professional experience on the outfield grass, with most of that coming in the corners. But the Rangers are looking for creative ways to get him into the lineup — quite understandably, given that he has a nice track record of hitting in the minors and posted a .293/.393/.491 slash in his first 135 MLB plate appearances last year.

The switch-hitting Santana was also long a middle infielder before increasingly shifting into outfield duties. He appeared all over the place in a breakout 2019 season, all while slashing a robust .283/.324/.534. Whether he can sustain that outburst remains to be seen. Santana was similarly productive as a rookie back in 2014 but had a long dry spell in the interim.

In the aggregate, it probably doesn’t matter all that much how the Rangers sort things to begin the season. Both Santana and Solak come with some upside and some desirable flexibility. They each also have questions to answer. No doubt the team’s plan is to adapt as the season unfolds.

Pirates To “Explore” Extensions With Young Players

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The Pirates expect to “explore multiyear deals” with certain of the team’s early-career MLB players, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The likelihood of agreement isn’t clear.

Recent reporting indicated that teams around the league are pursuing quite a few deals of this kind. It’s not surprising to see the Bucs participating in that effort. Early-career extensions have long been a key part of the team’s strategy. And while the team is in flux from a competitive standpoint, all teams are interested in scenarios that increase the value of their existing control rights over players.

Heyman lists several potential candidates, though it’s not clear which have actually been targeted by the Pittsburgh organization. Outfielder Bryan Reynolds, middle infielder Kevin Newman, and starter Joe Musgrove are all tabbed as possibilities — just the trio you’d likely have thought of.

Reynolds hasn’t even cracked a full year of service, but is coming off of an extremely impressive 2019 debut that might’ve earned him a Rookie of the Year award in some seasons. Newman is still two full seasons away from arbitration. He also put up a strong effort last year, slashing .308/.353/.446 in his first full season in the bigs.

It’s a bit of a different situation for Musgrove, who is already into arbitration eligibility at 27 years of age. He’s slated to earn $2.8MM for the coming season, so he has already locked in significant earnings. Musgrove has been a solid rotation piece since coming over before the 2018 season, compiling 285 2/3 total innings of 4.28 ERA ball.

Griffin Canning To Seek 2nd Opinion On Elbow

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Ongoing elbow questions have clouded the outlook of Angels righty Griffin Canning. The team isn’t quite ready to announce a decision on a course of action, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter.

Canning was previously said to be slated for testing today. Now, he’s scheduled for a second opinion — though there’s still no public knowledge (quite understandably) regarding the initial examination.

The 23-year-old hurler emerged as a key part of the Halos’ rotation plans last year. But he also ended the season on the injured list owing to elbow troubles and has dealt with other issues in the joint in the past.

The Angels rotation remains a point of focus after a trying 2019 campaign. Even if Canning avoids a significant stay on the injury list, it now seems he’ll join Shohei Ohtani on the injured list to open the 2020 season.

Latest On Jorge Alfaro

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The Marlins are still not sure that their top backstop will be ready for the start of the season, but the general prognosis seems promising. Skipper Don Mattingly says that Jorge Alfaro has been cleared to engage in some baseball activities. as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro was among those to cover on Twitter.

Alfaro has been laying low while dealing with a left oblique strain. While there’s still no indication that it’s a significant injury, it’s always prudent to exercise caution with this particular area of the body. Rather than pushing too hard and risking a more significant injury, the Fish will ease Alfaro back into action.

The Marlins would obviously prefer to have Alfaro behind the dish when the season gets underway. The 26-year-old is a key part of the team’s present and future hopes. After a solid but uneven showing last year, his first in Miami, he’ll be looking to make strides in 2020.

If Alaro is unable to prepare fully for the start of the upcoming campaign, there is a ready-made backup plan in the form of respected veteran Francisco Cervelli. Reserve duties could go to Chad Wallach, the only other backstop on the 40-man. Experienced big leaguer Ryan Lavarnway is also in camp as a non-roster invitee.

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