Archives for 2021

Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Update

By Tim Dierkes | November 28, 2021 at 7:54pm CDT

Our free agent prediction contest closed for entries on November 15th. To date, 17 of our top 50 free agents have signed. Of the 6,233 people who entered our contest, only three people have as many as eight predictions correct so far.

To follow along with the contest results, check out the leaderboard here. You can also check out how 11 participating MLBTR staff members are doing here. You can search for your own name in the contest results, and you can also click on anyone’s name to see their individual picks.

Kevin Gausman Expected To Sign In Next Few Days; Blue Jays, Giants Are Finalists

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2021 at 7:44pm CDT

7:44PM: According to multiple industry sources, Gausman will receive a five-year deal worth around $100MM in guaranteed money, Morosi reports in his latest Twitter update.

TODAY, 1:09PM: MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Giants “have a good chance to retain Kevin Gausman, based on the current tenor of negotiations.”

NOVEMBER 27: Kevin Gausman appears to be close to picking his new team, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links) reports that the free agent right-hander will likely make his decision within the next two or three days. The Blue Jays are one of the finalists for Gausman’s services, though it isn’t known how many other teams are also still in the running. The Jays, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Mets, and Mariners have all been linked to Gausman’s market at various points this winter.

There is enough interest in Gausman that “a five-year deal is increasingly likely,” Morosi writes. This is actually less than the six-year, $138MM deal that MLBTR projected for Gausman (who ranked fifth on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents), but it is still a healthy commitment for a pitcher entering his age-31 season. Beyond Gausman’s strong numbers over the last two seasons, he can also be signed without any draft pick compensation required, making him an even more attractive candidate for teams.

For example, the Angels have already surrendered one draft pick in order to sign the qualifying offer-rejecting Noah Syndergaard. Therefore, Gausman is probably a more enticing addition for the Angels than Robbie Ray, who is the last remaining free agent starter who rejected a QO (though the Angels reportedly had some interest in Ray earlier in the offseason).

The Blue Jays may have two compensatory picks coming back their way should Ray and Marcus Semien sign elsewhere. That frees the Jays up to perhaps sign another QO free agent since they know they’ll be getting at least one extra pick anyway, or maybe deal a notable prospect if they feel they can replenish their farm system with extra selections in the 2022 draft.

Gausman has long been on Toronto’s radar, as the club had interest in the righty in each of the last two offseasons. Last winter, the Jays reportedly offered Gausman three years and around $40MM before he opted to bet on himself by accepting the Giants’ qualifying offer — a very wise move in hindsight, given what Gausman is now poised to earn this offseason. Should the Jays win the bidding for Gausman, he will immediately bolster a rotation that has already lost Steven Matz to the Cardinals and may also lose Ray. Gausman would join Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah in the starting five, with other starting options like Nate Pearson, Ross Stripling, or Anthony Kay now battling for the fifth starter’s job.

Assuming he does agree to a deal soon, Gausman will join the long list of major free agent pitchers who have already landed deals before the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1. Syndergaard, Matz, Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Anthony DeSclafani, and Andrew Heaney have signed, though obviously several other prominent arms (i.e. Ray, Max Scherzer, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodon, Jon Gray) are still available.

Angels Interested In Luis Castillo

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2021 at 5:58pm CDT

The Angels and Reds have engaged in “preliminary trade talks” about right-hander Luis Castillo, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link). No deal seems close, however, as “the sides are far apart as of today.”

While the Reds are known to be listening on offers for Castillo, latest reports have indicated that Cincinnati isn’t keen to part with either Castillo and Tyler Mahle. As Morosi plainly puts it, the Reds’ “price remains very high” for Castillo’s services.

It costs the Angels nothing to just ask about Castillo, of course, and given how Los Angeles is scouring the free agent market for pitching, it isn’t surprising that the Halos are also exploring trade possibilities. Noah Syndergaard has already signed with Anaheim, but the Angels could surely use at least one more starter for what is planned as a six-man rotation. Right now, Syndergaard, Shohei Ohtani, Jose Suarez, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, and Jaime Barria sit as the Angels’ top six choices.

Castillo is a good fit for the Angels for several reasons, starting with his obvious ability to be front-of-the-rotation type of arm. Castillo is also controllable and affordable for two more seasons via the arbitration system, with Castillo projected to earn $7.6MM this winter. Since the Angels have a longstanding aversion to long-term deals for starting pitchers, keeping Castillo on a short-term deal carries obvious appeal, especially since he would also cost much less than it would take to sign a top-tier free agent arm like Robbie Ray or Max Scherzer.

Of course, obtaining Castillo carries a different kind of steep cost. The Reds’ specific demands for Castillo aren’t known, but it’s easy to imagine the team wanting a big package of high-caliber young talent. Since Cincinnati isn’t pursuing an outright fire sale in its efforts to cut payroll, one would think the Reds might want at least one young player who can contribute in 2022, since the team is still hoping to contend in the NL Central.

Castillo has garnered interest all over the L.A. baseball scene, as the Dodgers have also reportedly had some talks with the Reds about a possible swap. While it is safe to guess that multiple teams have checked in on Castillo’s availability, the Twins are one of the teams who haven’t yet shown interest, according to SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson. Minnesota may have an even more severe need for veteran pitching than the Angels, yet it has been a quiet offseason overall for the Twins, with the exception of today’s contract extension with Byron Buxton.

Twins, Byron Buxton Agree To Extension

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2021 at 3:27pm CDT

The Twins and outfielder Byron Buxton have agreed to a seven-year contract extension worth $100MM. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) first reported that the two sides were nearing a deal, as well the specific size and length of the contract, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported that an agreement had been reached. The extension contains a full no-trade clause. Buxton is represented by Jet Sports Management.

Rosenthal also has the breakdown of the financial particulars, which carry some notable extra incentives. Buxton will get a $1MM signing bonus and a $9MM salary for 2022, and he’ll then earn $15MM every season from 2023-28. An extra $500K in incentives is available if Buxton reaches various plate appearance thresholds (502, 533, 567, 600 and 625 PA). Some major and “believed to be unprecedented” bonus money is also available to Buxton based on his finishes in MVP voting. Buxton will earn $8MM if he wins MVP honors, $7MM for a second-place finish, $6MM for third, $5MM for fourth, $4MM for fifth, and $3MM if he finishes anywhere from sixth to tenth place in the voting.

The deal secures Buxton’s future as a Twins cornerstone, and ends several months’ worth of negotiations between the two sides. Talks over the summer didn’t pan out, which then led to speculation that Minnesota might deal Buxton at the trade deadline, though that scenario also didn’t come to pass. The Twins reportedly offered Buxton an $80MM deal during the season, and more recent reports indicated that Buxton’s camp wanted extra incentives included in the contract that would push the value over $100MM.

Instead, Buxton now locks in a guaranteed $100MM, though at the cost of six free agent seasons. Buxton (who turns 28 in December) was entering his final year of team control, and was projected to earn $7.3MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Though that lens, this deal could be viewed as a six-year, $92.7MM commitment, though the wide range of potential bonus money could greatly increase Buxton’s earnings.

To work his way into the MVP conversation, of course, Buxton will have to stay on the field, which has been his biggest question mark over seven MLB seasons. The outfielder has battled a wide variety of injury problems over the years, with just 493 total games played in seven seasons. Buxton’s season high was 140 appearances in 2017, but his next-highest totals were only 92 games (in 2016) and 87 games (in 2019), plus he appeared in 39 of a possible 60 games during the abbreviated 2020 campaign.

With so many trips to the injured list, it isn’t surprising that it took Buxton a while to get his timing down at the plate, but his batting prowess has started to emerge over the last three years, particularly in 2021. Buxton hit .306/.358/.647 over 254 PA last season, hitting 19 home runs and stealing nine bases in 10 opportunities. Between this offensive production and his all-world defense, Buxton was worth 4.2 fWAR despite playing in only 61 of Minnesota’s games, due to a hip strain and a fracture in his left hand.

Buxton has never finished higher than 16th in AL MVP voting (in 2020). His lack of playing time has undoubtedly cost him with MVP voters and also likely cost him multiple Gold Gloves beyond his lone GG in 2017. As a result, this incentive structure seems like a decent compromise that works for both Buxton and the Twins. The team gets some flexibility in making a major financial commitment to an injury-prone player, while Buxton both guarantees himself one life-changing payday, and allows him to benefit if he is able to stay healthy and consistently produce superstar-level numbers.

Minnesota doesn’t have much long-term payroll on its books, as Randy Dobnak is the only player guaranteed beyond the 2023 season. The guaranteed portion of Josh Donaldson’s deal is up after 2023, so Buxton will essentially replace Donaldson as the Twins’ biggest-money commitment.

Locking up Buxton also seemingly erases the possibility that the Twins were going to take a step back or rebuild entirely following their disastrous 2021 season. While Minnesota did move the likes of Nelson Cruz and Jose Berrios at the trade deadline, they didn’t engage in any kind of a full-on fire sale, preferring to try and rebound in 2022. Buxton’s no-trade clause gives him control over his own fate over the next seven seasons, though if Minnesota did change course and look to make a move with Buxton’s blessing in future years, his contract is short enough on guaranteed money that interested teams would likely still be open to absorbing the deal.

The extension also has an impact on the center field market, as Buxton is no longer a trade possibility and Starling Marte (the best everyday option in free agency) signed with the Mets on Friday. Teams looking for center field help are suddenly facing an even thinner list of possibilities.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rays To Sign Corey Kluber

By Darragh McDonald | November 28, 2021 at 3:16pm CDT

3:16PM: MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) has the breakdown of Kluber’s incentives. The righty will earn $500K bonuses for hitting the 10-start and 15-start thresholds, $1MM if he makes 20 starts, and $1.5MM for making 25 starts and 30 starts. While the Rays are known for using openers and bulk pitchers, this contract structure would seem to imply that Kluber will be normally deployed as a starting pitcher.

10:44AM: The Rays have signed Corey Kluber to a one-year deal, pending a physical. It’s an $8MM contract, plus incentives, which could take the value of the deal as high as $13MM. MLBTR had predicted a one-year, $12MM contract for Kluber, which is right in line with his earnings window, based on those incentives. Kluber is represented by Jet Sports Management.

This is yet another domino to fall in what has been an incredibly fast-moving starting pitcher market this year, as Eduardo Rodriguez, Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Verlander, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha have all signed in the past two weeks.

This is the second consecutive one-year deal for Kluber, after being signed by the Yankees in January. At the time, Kluber had been limited to less than 40 total innings over the previous two seasons due to various injuries. Regardless, he was still able to earn himself a guarantee of $11MM from the Yanks after demonstrating his health in a showcase. The righty was again held back by injuries in 2021, although his 80 innings pitched still were the most he’s tallied since 2018. Although he couldn’t live up to his previous Cy Young-winning form, he did manage an ERA of 3.83 with a strikeout rate of 24%.

Prior to his recent injury woes, Kluber was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. From 2014 to 2018, he had five straight campaigns of at least 200 innings and never had an ERA above 3.50. In total, he threw 1091 1/3 innings during that time frame, second only to Max Scherzer across the league. His 1,228 strikeouts put him third, behind only Scherzer and Chris Sale. His 30.3 fWAR in that span trailed only Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw. He won the AL Cy Young in 2014 and 2017 and made the All-Star team in three straight seasons, beginning in 2016.

For the Rays, this marks another in short-term deal given to a veteran starter, in what has become something of a pattern for the low-spending organization, who signed Rich Hill, Michael Wacha and Chris Archer to one-year deals last winter. Kluber has a much higher ceiling than any of those three, based on his previous track record, but also comes with a high degree of uncertainty based on his recent injuries. The rotation is currently composed of young, highly-touted but inexperienced hurlers, such as Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Yarbrough, Luis Patino, Shane Baz and Josh Fleming. Yarbrough is the only one of that group older than 27 years old or with more than two years’ service time. Tyler Glasnow is likely out for the entirety of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. Yonny Chirinos, also recovering from Tommy John, isn’t expected back until April or May. Brendan McKay just recently underwent thoracic outlet surgery but could potentially be ready by spring training. Kluber, if healthy, adds some steady veteran presence and experience into this mix.

From a financial perspective, the $8MM owed to Kluber pushes the club’s 2022 payroll close to $84MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. This has the potential to be record-setting, as the Rays have never had an opening day payroll higher than $77MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, it’s also possible that number comes down after the team subtracts from their substantial arbitration class, either by non-tenders or trades. They already made one such move when they recently traded Jordan Luplow and his projected $1.5MM arbitration salary to the Diamondbacks.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Rays had signed Kluber. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first added the $8MM base plus incentives framework. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed that the incentives could push the deal as high as $13MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

AL West Notes: Ray, Gray, Angels, Bryant, Mariners, Athletics

By Darragh McDonald | November 28, 2021 at 2:08pm CDT

Even after adding Noah Syndergaard, the Angels are still looking to further supplement their pitching staff. In recent days, they’ve been connected in rumors to Steven Matz, before he became a Cardinal, as well as Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and Marcus Stroman. But Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that Robbie Ray “remains atop their wish list.”

As Rosenthal notes, the Angels’ budget is a big unanswered question surrounding all of this. He lists their 2022 payroll as around $157MM. Adding someone like Ray would likely add more than $25MM to that total. (MLBTR predicted Ray would get a contract of $130MM over five years, an average annual value of $26MM.) That alone would put the Angels above their 2021 opening day payroll of $182MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with still other roster issues to address. A budget increase would likely be required in order to facilitate a plan involving a contract of that size.

Another question is whether the Angels will deviate from their longstanding avoidance of committing to free agent starting pitchers. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, the Angels haven’t given a starting pitcher a contract longer than a single year since signing Joe Blanton way back in 2012. Ray, who recently turned 30 and won the AL Cy Young Award, would certainly require the Angels to wade into territory they haven’t been in for quite some time.

Another potential target is Jon Gray, as Rosenthal notes the Angels “had interest in Gray at the deadline.” Signing Gray would likely add less to the 2022 payroll than Ray, but probably still require the club to lay out a multi-year deal. MLBTR predicted Gray to get a contract of $56MM over four years, an AAV of $14MM.

Latest On CBA Negotiations

By Darragh McDonald | November 28, 2021 at 12:59pm CDT

In a lengthy piece for The Athletic, Evan Drellich profiles Bruce Meyer, who is the MLBPA’s senior director of collective bargaining and legal. Meyer was hired in 2018, after many players were reportedly dissatisfied with the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, which was ratified in 2016. The piece notes that Meyer will meet with league representative Dan Halem near Dallas this week for some final negotiations before the CBA expires at 11:59 ET on December 1, which is this Wednesday. It’s been widely reported that, without a deal at that time, the league is expected to implement a lockout and transaction freeze, to be maintained until a new deal is reached.

As to exactly what points will be negotiated, both sides are understandably being cagey about revealing their positions, though the piece does have a few hints. “We want to find ways to get players compensated at an earlier stage of their careers when the teams are valuing them the most,” Meyer says. “And we want to preserve the fundamental principles of a market system.” This sentiment was echoed by star free agent and Players Association executive subcommittee member Max Scherzer, who was quoted in the article. “Unless this CBA completely addresses the competition (issues) and younger players getting paid, that’s the only way I’m going to put my name on it,” Scherzer said.

There is indeed a tremendous gap between the salaries of younger players and veterans. Until players reaches three years’ service time, they have no ability to negotiate their salary, with their clubs allowed to pay them around the league minimum, which is currently under $600K. After three years, a player can start earning raises through the arbitration system, but is still usually paid well below what they could garner on the open market. (Some players will reach Super Two status each year, reaching arbitration early.) Only after accruing six years’ service time does a player earn the right for free agency and the ability to maximize their earning potential. If the players want that system to change, it could come in many forms, such as a higher minimum salary or a reduction in the amount of service time needed for either arbitration or free agency.

However, there does seem to be some awareness that the players won’t be able to get everything that they want this winter. Free agent righty Collin McHugh, who previously served on the subcommittee, framed it thusly. “We’re not gonna change the game completely for players in one CBA,” McHugh said. But that shouldn’t be taken as a sign that the players will just roll over in negotiations. When asked about the possibility of a lockout, Meyer had this to say. “I think players understand why it’s a possibility and the reasons for it, and what it will entail. At the end of the day, it’s about what players are willing to fight and sacrifice for. I think players understand that.” Lefty Andrew Miller, another member of the subcommittee, also chimed in about the potential lockout. “If we’re truly serious about making changes, improving the game and improving the position of players, it’s an unfortunate reality of the system. But we are absolutely prepared for it.”

One thing hanging over these negotiations, beyond the usual tensions between athletes and owners, is the lingering resentment over the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Commissioner Rob Manfred doesn’t seem to think it’s a big deal, based on his comments in the article. “I’ve been in charge of labor in this industry since 1998,” Manfred said. “Every single time, I have found a way, we have found a way, to make an agreement and keep the game on the field. One sort of mid-term negotiation in the middle of a crisis of a pandemic — I just don’t put that much weight on it.” The players, however, may not see it quite the same way. “Rob and the commissioner’s office kind of held the season hostage for a minute when everybody was ready to play,” says McHugh. The union filed a grievance over this 2020 season back in May, and it seems the bitterness over that might still carry on into this winter.

Aaron Altherr Eyeing MLB Comeback Following Productive KBO Stint

By Steve Adams | November 28, 2021 at 12:44pm CDT

Former Phillies, Mets and Giants outfielder Aaron Altherr, who has spent the past two seasons playing in the Korea Baseball Organization, is now a free agent and is eyeing a potential MLB comeback after a strong run overseas, MLBTR has learned. A jump to Japan’s NPB is also a possibility.

Set to turn 31 in January, Altherr spent the 2020-21 seasons with the NC Dinos as their primary center fielder, helping the club to a Korean Series championship and posting consecutive 30-homer/20-steal seasons. In a combined 1,111 plate appearances, Altherr slashed .275/.356/.528 (130 wRC+) with 63 home runs, 39 doubles, nine triples and 42 steals (in 48 attempts). Strikeouts have been an issue (27.4%), though he’s also drawn a respectable number of free passes (9.3% overall, including 10.1% in 2021).

A ninth-round pick by the Phillies back in 2009, Altherr briefly reached the big leagues in 2014, got his first extended look a year later in 2015, and at that point seemed like a potential long-term answer in the outfield. He posted a .241/.338/.489 batting line through 161 plate appearances as a rookie (124 wRC+), squarely putting himself into the team’s outfield mix. However, 2016 was largely a lost season. Altherr had wrist surgery that April, and while he made it back to the field late in the summer, his .202/.304/.293 slash showed that he clearly wasn’t at full strength.

In 2017, Altherr bounced back with a .272/.340/.516 batting line through what’s still a career-high (in MLB) 412 plate appearances. He swatted 19 home runs for the Phils that season while seeing time at all three outfield spots.

With the Phillies’ Carlos Santana signing pushing Rhys Hoskins into left field in 2018 and Odubel Herrera then entrenched in center field, Altherr found himself jostling with Nick Williams (who’d had a solid 2017 season himself) for playing time in right field. Altherr started the season in a slump and never really recovered, batting just .181/.295/.333 in 285 plate appearances.

Philadelphia’s subsequent signings of Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper completely eroded the path to playing time for Altherr in 2019. He was designated for assignment in early May, bouncing quickly from the Phillies, to the Giants (who gave him one plate appearance), to the Mets via waivers. Altherr struggled in 35 plate appearances with the Mets before being outrighted to Triple-A Syracuse, where he hit well but spent a notable chunk of time on the injured list.

The prospect of a guaranteed seven-figure salary lured Altherr to the Dinos, and he’s taken home more than $2.3MM during his time in South Korea. He’ll likely have interest from the Dinos and other KBO clubs in free agency, but opportunities in Japan and certainly back in the Majors could be more lucrative.

Overall, Altherr has a .219/.308/.402 batting line in 1,156 Major League plate appearances, but his .275/.356/.528 slash in the KBO at least offers the promise that he could do more with a larger opportunity than he received during his stop-and-start Phillies tenure. We’ve seen a handful of former big league bats make successful returns after starring in South Korea, including Eric Thames and Darin Ruf.

Altherr is two years younger than Ruf was at the time of his return, and given that he’s a viable center field option in an offseason where there are few available options at the position (particularly now that Starling Marte has signed), Altherr could be viewed as an interesting roll of the dice for a team seeking relatively affordable outfield help. The looming lockout surely complicates matters — teams in Japan and South Korea likely don’t care to wait on free-agent decisions while MLB is under a transaction freeze — but Altherr ought to at least have a few days to gauge interest before that wrench is thrown into the market.

Rangers Sign Marcus Semien

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2021 at 8:40am CDT

The Rangers made the first major strike of the offseason shortstop market, agreeing with Marcus Semien on a seven-year, $175MM contract. According to The Athletic’s Levi Weaver, Semien will earn $25MM in 2022, $26MM in each of the 2023-27 seasons, and then $20MM in 2028. Semien is represented by the Boras Corporation.

“Marcus’ reputation around the game is impeccable. He’s a leader in every clubhouse he steps into, respected for the way he goes about his work and how he treats others,” Rangers President of Baseball Operations Jon Daniels said in a press release officially announcing the signing. “There are few players in the game who garner the level of respect that he does from teammates and opponents alike. We’re thrilled to add a player of his caliber to the organization.”

There were indications that Semien was one of the free agents looking to get his next contract finalized prior to the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1, as a lockout and transactions freeze are widely expected to follow. The Rangers were also known to be one of the more aggressive teams of the offseason, with money to spent and a direct interest in the shortstop market.

With these factors in mind, a deal between the two sides doesn’t necessarily count as a surprise, but the sheer size of the contract is a little eye-opening. MLBTR projected Semien for six years and $138MM, as though Semien is already 31 years old, he has been a very durable player throughout his career and isn’t necessarily as much of a decline risk as other players his age. Needless to say, the Rangers agreed, giving Semien the biggest contract of any free agent to date this winter. With Semien now locking in $175MM, the asking price will probably only go up for Carlos Correa (age 27), Corey Seager (28 in April), Trevor Story (who just turned 29) and Javier Baez (who turns 29 on December 1).

It also isn’t out of the question that one of these other shortstops might still end up joining forces with Semien in the Texas infield, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reporting that Story is still under consideration. Theoretically, a scenario exists where Story signs to play shortstop, while Semien moves to second base, as he did last year with the Blue Jays alongside shortstop Bo Bichette.

If another shortstop isn’t added, Semien might conceivably still remain at second base, since Rangers incumbent Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a fine defensive shortstop in his own right. Kiner-Falefa would likely be a defensive standout anywhere he plays around the infield, however, so Texas could opt to put IKF at second or third base, and install Semien back in his former shortstop position.

The seven-year contract represents quite a turn of events for Semien, who struggled through the first six weeks of the shortened 2020 season, thus limiting his value heading into free agency last winter. Semien opted to sign a one-year deal with the Jays in order to re-establish his market, and the result was a third-place finish in AL MVP voting. Semien hit .265/.334/.538 with 45 homers during his spectacular year, appearing in all 162 games and leading the league with 724 plate appearances. In addition to Silver Slugger honors, Semien also won a Gold Glove in his first year as a second baseman since 2014.

The Rangers were very familiar with Semien from his days with the Athletics, and the infielder now returns to the AL West as the veteran face of a new era of Texas baseball. After five straight losing seasons, both president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and GM Chris Young indicated that the club was willing to spend some serious money to return to contention. The Rangers have so little on the books in future salary commitments that multiple signings seemed likely, and if the team is indeed prepared to add up to $100MM in payroll this winter alone, Semien’s $25MM average annual value represents only the first quarter of Texas’ potential outlay.

As Rome wasn’t built in a day, turning the 102-loss Rangers into an immediate contender will be a tall order, even if Texas does spend $100MM+. Both the AL West and the American League as a whole figure to be competitive in 2022, so the Rangers will need quite a bit more than just Semien to even get back above the .500 mark. The seven-year commitment, however, is a sign that the Rangers are clearly in this for the long haul, and Semien is the type of “signpost” free agent signing (i.e. Jayson Werth signing with the Nationals in December 2010, or Hyun Jin Ryu signing with the Blue Jays two offseasons ago) that announces a team is ready to turn the corner. Semien’s reputation as a strong clubhouse leader will also help for mentorship purposes with the Rangers’ younger players, and potentially attract other players to Arlington.

Because Semien rejected Toronto’s qualifying offer, the Rangers will have to give up $500K in international spending pool money, as well as their second-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The latter is a pretty significant concession, as the Rangers’ second-highest selection is the third pick of the second round. Since signing another QO-rejecting free agent would cost Texas its next highest pick (the third choice of the third round), it remains to be seen if the Rangers will now target free agents who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation. Of the other shortstops, Baez is the only one who didn’t turn down a qualifying offer, as Baez wasn’t eligible due to his midseason trade to the Mets.

As well, the Blue Jays will get draft pick compensation for Semien’s departure, as the Jays will now get an extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round. The Blue Jays had interest in re-signing Semien themselves, but will now take the draft pick as a reward for their bet on Semien one year ago.

With Bichette established at shortstop, it remains to be seen if any of Correa, Seager, Story, or Baez could factor into Toronto’s plans, though most of the Jays-related news this winter has been related to their search for pitching, rather than any shortstops apart from Semien. With a Santiago Espinal/Cavan Biggio platoon penciled in for second base or third base, the Jays have some flexibility in what type of infielder they can pursue as a Semien replacement, or whether that new player comes via free agency or trade. There is no easy way to truly replace Semien’s production, of course, so a substantial addition be required to try and fill the big hole that Semien leaves in Toronto’s lineup.

FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link) was the first to report that the two sides were close to a deal, with MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reporting the contract length, the fact that the deal had been reached, and the dollar figure. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also adds that the deal doesn’t contain any opt-out clauses or no-trade protection.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Blue Jays To Sign Yimi Garcia

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2021 at 7:37am CDT

Nov. 28: Ben Nicholson-Smith clarified on Twitter that the bonus for pitching 60 innings or appearing in 60 games is actually $500K, not the $250K he previously reported.

Nov. 27, 11:07PM: The 2024 option has a vesting element, as per Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter links). The Jays have a $5MM club option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout, but that third year becomes guaranteed at $6MM if Garcia tosses 60 innings or makes 60 appearances in 2023, or if he pitches at least 110 innings or 110 appearances in 2022-23 combined.

Garcia will receive a $1MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary in 2022, and $5MM in 2023. Garcia also receives a $250K bonus if he hits the 50-inning mark, and other $250K bonuses at the 55-inning and 60-inning thresholds. An unknown team offered Garcia a more lucrative multi-year deal, Nicholson-Smith writes, but the reliever rejected that deal in order to join a Blue Jays club that looks to be closer to contending.

8:14PM: The Blue Jays have agreed to a deal with right-hander Yimi Garcia, as per former player Carlos Baerga via Instagram (hat tip to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi). It is a two-year contract worth $11MM for the 31-year-old Garcia, as per TSN’s Scott Mitchell, and the Jays also have a club option for 2024. Garcia is represented by agent Kelvin Nova.

Garcia comes to Toronto after something of a tough end to his 2021 season. After the Marlins dealt Garcia to the Astros at the trade deadline, Garcia posted a 5.48 ERA over 21 1/3 innings with Houston. While his strikeout and walk rates improved following the trade, he had some bad luck in the form of a very low 42.6% strand rate. With a 2.98 SIERA for his time as an Astro, the argument can certainly be made that Garcia deserved better, and things didn’t really improve thanks to a couple of rough outings in the playoffs.

On the whole, Garcia had a 4.21 ERA/3.61 ERA over 57 2/3 combined innings in 2021, with a 25.3% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate that were both better than the league average. Garcia allowed quite a bit of hard contact, but he continued to boast one of baseball’s very best fastball spin rates. Perhaps most promisingly, Garcia’s home run rate was a manageable 14.5%, after the long ball led to a lot of issues when he pitched for the Dodgers in 2018-19.

Those home run concerns notwithstanding, Garcia has been a pretty solid bullpen arm for much of his career, posting a 3.60 ERA over 232 1/3 career Major League innings. Garcia has rebounded nicely from a 2016-18 stretch that was essentially a wash due to injuries, as he tossed only 30 2/3 combined frames in those three years due to knee problems, biceps problems, and Tommy John surgery. Los Angeles elected to non-tender Garcia after the 2019 season, and he was quite effective with the Marlins after signing with Miami that winter.

A two-year deal is a nice score for Garcia in the wake of this career history, and also a reasonable price for Toronto to pay for a veteran relief arm with postseason experience. The Jays have generally not spent much on relief pitching during Ross Atkins’ tenure as general manager, with the partial exception of their one-year, $5.5MM deal with Kirby Yates last offseason that immediately went south when Yates needed TJ surgery of his own. Garcia’s health history contains some obvious red flags, though he hasn’t had any true injury problems since the start of the 2019 campaign, apart from a month missed in 2020 during the Marlins’ COVID-19 outbreak.

A swath of bullpen injuries badly hampered the Jays for the first few months of the 2021 season, and while the numbers began to generally improve, the Blue Jays lacked depth beyond their top quartet of closer Jordan Romano, Trevor Richards, Adam Cimber, and Tim Mayza. That group is all back next season, and with Garcia added to the mix along with other pitchers (i.e. Julian Merryweather, Ryan Borucki) that will hopefully be healthier, the Blue Jays are aiming to turn their relief corps from a weakness into a strength.

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