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Padres Notes: Clevinger, Lamet, Pham

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The Padres are planning to have a healthy Mike Clevinger ready for Spring Training, per MLB.com’s Shaun O’Neill. The 30-year-old made just four starts in the regular season after being acquired from the Guardians midway through the 2020 season. Clevinger underwent his second Tommy John surgery, missing the entirety of the 2021 season. Clevinger’s absence was one reason President of Baseball Ops A.J. Preller went out and acquired Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, and Yu Darvish last winter, though even those additions ended up being insufficient as injuries took their toll on the Friars.

Dinelson Lamet’s inability to stay on the hill certainly played a part, as the right-hander could not stay healthy enough to hold a rotation spot. He came off the injured list on April 21st, but made just one appearance before landing back on the shelf. He later missed another 66 days with forearm inflammation. He ended up moving to the bullpen, making 11 appearances in relief and finished with a 4.40 ERA/3.94 FIP across 47 innings. Lamet’s role in 2022 will be undecided until the spring, notes O’Neill.

They’re open to re-signing Tommy Pham, per Preller, but it’s going to be a numbers game now. The 33-year-old put up 1.4 rWAR in 561 plate appearances, leaving room for an upgrade, should the Padres find the right player. Pham’s contributions were suitable, though a .229/.340/.383 at the plate leaves much to be desired.

The Padres have some flexibility in the outfielder corners, where Will Myers, Jurickson Profar, and Adam Frazier could all see time next season. Ideally, however, only one of those three lines up at an opening day starter. There are plenty of corner outfielders available in free agency, however, so the Padres don’t have to rush a decision on Pham. Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte, Seiya Suzuki, and Avisail Garcia are just some of the corner outfielders available, as well as more versatile options like Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor.

Rockies Re-Sign Jhoulys Chacin

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Right-hander Jhoulys Chacin has agreed on a one-year deal to return to the Rockies, as per Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette (via Twitter). The team has announced the signing. Chacin’s deal is worth $1.25MM, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter).

Chacin, 34 in January, had his best years in purple from 2009 to 2014. He returned to Colorado last season, making 46 appearances, mostly out of the bullpen. Though it was a different role than the last time Chacin pitched for the Rockies, he put together his best season since 2018 nevertheless, logging 64 1/3 innings with a 4.34 ERA/4.63 FIP.

Chacin’s best season overall came in that 2018 season when he made 35 starts for a playoff-bound Brewers’ squad that won 96 games and the NL Central crown. Chacin won a career-high 15 games with a 3.50 ERA/4.03 FIP in 192 2/3 innings. He kept it up in the postseason, making three starts and giving up just two earned runs over 12 1/3 innings, which included a game two victory over the Rockies in the NLDS.

Though Chacin has more career playoff innings against the Rockies than for them, they have nonetheless shared a productive partnership over the years. Chacin figures to remain in the bullpen as a multi-inning option in 2022. Overall, Chacin owns a 4.06 ERA/4.08 FIP in 1,388 1/3 innings across 13 seasons with the Rockies, Brewers, Braves, Diamondbacks, Angels, Padres, and Red Sox. He surpassed 10 years of service time last season.

GM Ross Atkins On Blue Jays’ Winter Goals

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The Blue Jays would love to add an infielder to complement their current mix of young gloves in the dirt, but it’s not a necessity, says GM Ross Atkins, per Scott Mitchell of TSN. That includes, of course, a potential reunion with Marcus Semien, though having a versatile defensive player like Cavan Biggio on the roster gives Atkins some flexibility. Filling Semien’s spot at the keystone is the natural place to add an infielder, but Biggio could slide to second, opening the hot corner for a bigger fish like Matt Chapman of the A’s, whom Mitchell speculates could be a target.

Of course, injuries limited the 26-year-old Biggio to just 79 games last season and a .224/.322/.356 batting line, so an argument could be made to look for an upgrade at third base regardless of what happens at second. Wherever they make additions, for the second consecutive winter, the Blue Jays are no doubt buyers in this free agent market. If not another infielder, Toronto will surely explore rotation and bullpen upgrades, notes Mitchell.

Specifically, Atkins did not rule out getting a more established closer that might bump Jordan Romano from the role that he stepped into last season. Romano notched 23 games for the Jays last season, but he also picked up a handful of holds while only recording a single blown save. Steady as he was, there is no such thing as too many high leverage arms.

Cardinals Want To Bring Back Luis Garcia, Add Rotation Arm

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The Cardinals are working to re-sign late-inning reliever Luis Garcia after the hard-throwing righty’s breakout season in St. Louis, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Even if the Cardinals do bring back Garcia, they will still target at least one additional potential high leverage reliever. Alex Reyes handled much of the high leverage workload last year, but they’d like to give Reyes an opportunity to claim a rotation spot.

As for Garcia, he has long struggled with his command, but he held it together for a career-low 5.9 percent walk rate in his 34 appearances with the Cardinals last season. That kind of control with a sinking fastball averaging more than 98 mph is a killer combination that helped Garcia notch a 25.2 percent strikeout rate and 3.24 ERA/2.72 FIP in 33 1/3 innings. His innings weren’t cheap ones either, as Garcia managed to save a pair of games and preserve leads enough to earn 12 holds.

Along with Garcia and another late inning arm, Goold also mentions sinkerballing starters like Steven Matz or Alex Cobb as a potential target for the Cardinals. Both are coming off relatively strong seasons and would likely benefit from pitching in front of the Gold Glove laden infield in St. Louis. The Cardinals have starting options with Dakota Hudson coming back from Tommy John and Reyes potentially moving into the rotation, but with deadline acquisitions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ now free agents, there are a fair number of innings to go around.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The likely departure of Trevor Story will only hurt a team that has already struggled to generate offense, so landing some hitters who can produce both at home and on the road is the first order of business for Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Antonio Senzatela, SP: $50.5MM through 2026 ($14MM club option for 2027)
  • German Marquez, SP: $28.5MM through 2023 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2024)
  • C.J. Cron, 1B: $14.5MM through 2023
  • Scott Oberg, RP: $7MM through 2022 ($8MM club option for 2023)

Other Financial Commitments

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Charlie Blackmon, OF: $21MM player option for 2022 (exercised; Blackmon also has a $10MM player option for 2023, and has already said he will exercise that option as well)
  • Ian Desmond, IF/OF: $15MM club option for 2022 (declined, Desmond received $2MM buyout)

Free Agents

When Jeff Bridich stepped down from the general manager job back in April, the Rockies announced they would look for a new head of baseball operations after the season, with an interim GM filling the role for the remainder of the 2021 campaign.  As it happened, the Rox made their choice early, deciding to elevate interim GM and longtime front office employee Bill Schmidt into the full-time job during the final weekend of the regular season.  As team president/COO Greg Feasel put it, Schmidt impressed upper management to the point that “he didn’t give us a choice…I mean, how many times do you need to be hit over the head with a bat?  And he was the right guy for us at the right time.”

Given how the Rockies often promote from within and place such a large premium on continuity within the organization, Schmidt’s official hiring wasn’t a surprise.  However, for Colorado fans frustrated by their team’s lack of overall success, Rockies owner Dick Monfort’s track record for loyalty is a double-edged sword that seems to prevent new perspectives and new strategies from filtering into the front office.

In fairness to Schmidt, he is a veteran baseball man with his own ideas, so it is maybe too easy to just presume that things will be business as usual at Coors Field.  And, having their GM position decided early did allow the Rockies to get a quick jump on some notable offseason business — inking Antonio Senzatela to a five-year contract extension, and then keeping C.J. Cron off the free agent market by signing the first baseman to a new two-year, $14.5MM deal.

Cron was the more pressing concern since he was just weeks away from the open market, but it isn’t all that surprising he’d welcome staying in one place after changing teams in each of the last four offseasons.  Playing in Denver certainly seemed to agree with Cron, who hit .281/.375/.530 with 28 home runs over 547 plate appearances, fueled by big home/road splits (1.073 OPS at Coors Field, .734 OPS in away games).

Cron certainly did enough to merit that extension, and keeping him in the fold helps reinforce Colorado’s lineup.  That said, Cron’s performance is endemic of the 2021 season as a whole for Rockies hitters, who batted a league-worst .217/.291/.352 (73 wRC+) on the road.  Colorado was only 26-54 in away games, and even at home, the Rockies’ cumulative .280/.341/.475 slash line translated to only a 90 wRC+.

It has now been several years since the Rox have had a productive offense both at home and on the road. The team’s inability to find consistent hitting has been underscored by the fact that the rotation has been perhaps as stable recently as at any point in the franchise’s history.  On the rare occasions when everything is clicking, it is perhaps understandable why Monfort and Schmidt have seemed so insistent that this team isn’t as far away from contention as it seems.  In practice, however, the Rockies have had three straight losing seasons, a flawed roster, a thin minor league system, and many needs to address if they’re going to make any noise in a very competitive NL West.

Let’s begin with the rotation, as German Marquez is the ace of a staff that will return Senzatela, Austin Gomber, and Kyle Freeland. This quartet was collectively decent if unspectacular in 2021.  Senzatela’s extension now locks him in with Marquez (controlled through 2024 via his own extension) and Gomber (controlled through 2025 via arbitration) as long-term pieces for Colorado, even if guaranteeing $50.5MM to Senzatela seemed a little surprising since the righty has had some ups-and-downs over his five MLB seasons.

Extending a pitcher who has had some success at Coors Field does seem like a logical move for the Rockies, considering their difficulties in bringing any premium free agent arms to the thin air.  Barring a big and unlikely overpay, the Rox will be looking to add starting depth through minor league signings and veterans perhaps looking for a bounce-back year.  In-house starting options include Peter Lambert back from Tommy John surgery, rookie Ryan Feltner, and top pitching prospect Ryan Rolison should make his MLB debut in 2022, though none of that group can be counted on to reliably fill a rotation spot just yet.

Trading for a veteran hurler who can eat innings and keep the ball on the ground would be a good idea, and this is one area where Schmidt can easily distinguish himself.  Bridich didn’t make many trades over his six-plus years as the GM, and there weren’t a lot of clear wins in that limited number (the Marquez/Jake McGee deal notwithstanding).

Of course, re-signing Jon Gray would also address that rotation need, though it remains to be seen if a reunion is feasible now that Gray has reached free agency.  The Rockies resisted dealing Gray at the trade deadline because they were so intent on keeping him, and then made an extension offer in the area of $35-$40MM over three years.  This late-season offer was seemingly the only deal officially presented to Gray and his representatives, and when it was rejected, the Rockies then didn’t issue Gray a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer.  The right-hander now doesn’t have any draft pick compensation attached to his services, making him an even more attractive option for other teams in need of rotation help.

It all adds up to a curious sequence of events, as now Colorado risks losing Gray for nothing.  The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reported that Gray “likely would have accepted” the QO, so the Rockies would’ve been paying Gray roughly $5MM more in average annual value than they were comfortable with, given the parameters of their extension offer.   Yet, would this have really been that unpalatable a situation, considering how seriously the club seemed to want to retain Gray?  Then again, perhaps even that intent could be called into question if the Rox did make Gray just that one offer, unless the Rockies simply put way too much faith in Gray accepting that three-year extension.

Paying an extra $5MM than expected for Gray would’ve had an impact on Colorado’s payroll availability, but Feasel has stated that the team plans to slowly increase its spending over the next two years.  With roughly $103MM (as per Roster Resource) committed to the 2022 payroll, Feasel said the Rox plan to be back in the $150MM range by 2023, which was what the club was spending in 2018-19 before the pandemic.  That $47MM spending bump isn’t small, though it remains to be seen if the majority of that increase may happen next winter instead of over the coming few months, particularly since the collective bargaining agreement talks could significantly alter baseball’s business rules going forward.

It could also be that spending extra money on a starting pitcher didn’t fit the team’s greatest needs, as Schmidt has said that improving the bullpen and adding power to the lineup are the top priorities.  On the relief pitching front, don’t expect to see any expensive names added, as the Rockies have many of the same issues in attracting relievers as they do in attracting prominent starters (plus, the McGee/Wade Davis/Bryan Shaw contracts undoubtedly still linger in the front office’s memory).

Carlos Estevez enters the offseason as the closer, with Lucas Gilbreath and Robert Stephenson doing the most in 2021 to lay claims on setup roles or even occasional save opportunities.  Daniel Bard’s projected $4.8MM arbitration number is boosted by the saves he did accumulate before losing the closer’s job, but Bard pitched decently well outside the ninth inning and will likely be retained.  Tyler Kinley might be a non-tender candidate, but he isn’t expensive and offers some durability.  Along those same lines, Jhoulys Chacin ate some innings and posted decent numbers in his return to Colorado as a reliever, so the Rox could look to re-sign the veteran.  Since Gilbreath is the only left-hander among any of these bullpen names mentioned, the Rockies will probably target a southpaw or two.

This brings us to the position player mix, and the big gap that exists at shortstop since Trevor Story will be playing elsewhere in 2022.  Story is another of the many pending free agents the Rockies chose to keep at their quiet trade deadline, as Schmidt stated that rival teams didn’t present any offers more attractive than the compensatory draft pick Colorado will receive via the qualifying offer when Story signs with a new team.

The infield vacancy does look like it will be at shortstop, as while Brendan Rodgers has played plenty of shortstop in the minors, the expectation is that the Rockies will keep him at second base.  Rodgers’ first full MLB season was pretty successful, as he hit .284/.328/.470 with 15 homers over 415 PA after a hamstring strain delayed his season debut until May 21.  The former third overall pick now looks like a player to be counted on for regular work going forward, giving Colorado one building block in place.

In fact, the Rockies’ infield mix is pretty settled apart from shortstop.  Cron is at first base, Rodgers at second, Ryan McMahon is at third base, and Elias Diaz is lined up for regular catching duties with Dom Nunez as either the backup or as a platoon partner if his hitting improves.  It isn’t a bad group on paper, yet they were only truly dangerous at Coors Field — Rodgers was the only regular who really hit well in away games, though he countered those splits with subpar production at home.

Ezequiel Tovar looks on pace to be Colorado’s shortstop of the future, though since he’s only 20 years old and hasn’t even played Double-A ball, he isn’t a realistic option until 2023 at the earliest.  If the Rockies have enough confidence in Tovar’s bat to project him as an everyday player, they might only be looking for a short-term shortstop addition to serve as a bridge for the next year or two.  This could put the Rox in line for a relatively inexpensive veteran free agent in the Andrelton Simmons/Freddy Galvis tier, or a utilityman like Leury Garcia or Marwin Gonzalez could help at shortstop and at other positions.  Keeping with the utility theme, re-signing Chris Owings would also seem like a realistic option, even if Owings hasn’t played much shortstop in the last few years.

If the Rockies are going to add some offensive pop and are willing to spend some money to do it, the outfield is the obvious target area.  Longtime Rockie Charlie Blackmon exercised his player option and looks to have one of the corner spots (probably right field) accounted for the next two years, leaving two slots open to a collection of players that includes Sam Hilliard, Raimel Tapia, Connor Joe, Yonathan Daza, and Ryan Vilade.  This group isn’t bereft of talent or potential, but there also isn’t anyone there who would or should preclude the Rox from adding a proven veteran slugger, particularly if the National League adds the DH next year.

Starling Marte is the clear choice as the top center fielder on the market, though a versatile player like Chris Taylor could handle center field, shortstop, and several other spots around the diamond.  Taylor, for what it’s worth, has consistently torched the Rockies and hit well at Coors Field as a visiting player.

Signing Taylor would cost the Rox a compensatory draft pick, however, as would other big-hitting QO free agent outfielders like Nick Castellanos or Michael Conforto.  This could be a sacrifice Colorado is willing to make, figuring that the Story compensatory pick will make up for it, but it probably seems likelier that the Rockies will first look to non-QO outfielders like Avisail Garcia, Kyle Schwarber, or Mark Canha.

The list of targets obviously hinges on what exactly the Rockies are willing to spend, and of course, it also takes two to tango in free agent signings.  The names at the top of the outfield market have flexibility in choosing their next team, and unless Colorado strongly outbids the other suitors, would their top choice be a Rockies team that doesn’t seem like an obvious contender in 2022 (or even 2023)?  Also, the “Coors Field Effect” may turn off hitters as much as pitchers, given how much recent evidence exists that playing in Denver may mess up a hitter’s production from one ballpark to the next.

This same factor also influences the trade market.  As mentioned earlier, Bridich didn’t make many trades as Colorado’s general manager, but that could partially stem from the difficulty in properly evaluating players who spend half their time at Coors Field, especially if many of those same players then struggle on the road.  If the Rox acquired a new outfielder, for example, players like Tapia, Hilliard, or Garrett Hampson might become expendable trade chips.  But, for both Schmidt and rival GMs, how do you properly gauge the value of a player when their home ballpark may have such an outsized impact on their performance?

There’s no question that the Rockies face plenty of difficulties unique to their team alone, yet their situation hasn’t been helped by some self-inflicted wounds, such as the hard feelings that surrounded Nolan Arenado’s departure and how Story seemed openly displeased that he wasn’t moved at the trade deadline.  This offseason will be very instructive in illustrating Schmidt’s direction for the team and how it differs from the Bridich era, and in lieu of substantive changes, Rox fans may continue to be wary at the future outlook.

Several High-End Free Agents Could Sign Before CBA Expires

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The 2021-22 offseason is unlike any we’ve seen in recent history, with players and teams somewhat flying blind as the expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement looms at 11:59pm ET on Dec. 1. Because of the widely expected lockout and uncertainty as to what changes will be made to key economic facets of Major League Baseball — the luxury tax, the arbitration system, the potential implementation of a salary floor — there’s been fairly prevalent speculation that the majority of major free-agent dealings would only occur after a lockout has been resolved.

That’s not necessarily the case, ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes in his takeaway column from this week’s GM Meetings in California. To the contrary, there’s a sense that top free agents Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and a few prominent starting pitchers could come off the board while the current CBA is still in play. Similarly, some in the industry expect that at least some of the offseason’s most aggressive teams (e.g. Rangers, Tigers, Mariners, Blue Jays) could be highly active in the days and hours leading up to the current agreement’s expiration, per Passan.

To some extent, it’s only logical to see the markets for certain top-of-the-scale free agents crystallize more quickly than others. Seager is one of the top two names on the market, while Semien is coming off the best season of any of the “second tier” of shortstops — those expected to sign north of $100MM but well beneath the likely $300MM+ price range of Seager and Carlos Correa.

Demand figures to be robust for both Seager and Semien. And, with likely interest from teams that won’t have immediate luxury-tax concerns regardless of who they sign, thanks to fairly wide-open payroll outlays, not every interested team will be overly concerned with waiting to see how the luxury tax unfolds. A lack of luxury-tax concern among Texas, Detroit, Seattle and Toronto surely dovetails with expectations that they could act more quickly than, say, the Yankees or Dodgers — both of whom will be keenly interested in the particulars of a restructured competitive balance tax.

Both Seager and Semien are of interest to the Yankees, Passan reemphasizes, though that much is well known by this point. Yankees GM Brian Cashman effectively kicked off the team’s offseason by announcing his desire to improve at shortstop, and it’d frankly be more surprising to learn that the Yanks were “out” on any one of the top free-agent shortstops than to hear they’re still in the mix.

There’s certainly no guarantee that either Seager or Semien will sign prior to Dec. 1, but it’s also in many ways sensible for both teams and players to want to strike early. Assuming there is indeed a lockout, MLB free agency would resume at a rather frenzied pace. There’d be obvious benefit to teams having cost certainty and avoiding some of that chaos by checking a big-ticket item off the list early in the process. From the players’ vantage point, there has to be concern about getting lost in the shuffle — particularly among second- or third-tier names. Furthermore, as is the case every winter, free agents tend to prefer the certainty of knowing where they (and their families) will be for the foreseeable future.

Even from an agency standpoint, early deals make some sense, if the demand is sufficient enough to drum up a palatable offer. For instance, the Boras Corporation represents both Seager and Semien, but they’ll also be negotiating deals for Max Scherzer, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon, Yusei Kikuchi and James Paxton, among others. It’s a lot to juggle in what would be a condensed free-agent period, post-lockout. It’s easy to see the appeal of an early contract or two for any agency with a lengthy client list this winter.

To this point, there’s been little in the way of actual activity, save for a trio of  one-year deals for Andrew Heaney (Dodgers), T.J. McFarland (Cardinals) and Joely Rodriguez (Yankees). Teams and agencies acting with a bit of increased urgency, however, carries the potential for a perhaps brief flurry of deals in the next three weeks, even if the prevailing wisdom is that the majority of the offseason’s heavy lifting will come in the wake of, and not in advance of, a lockout and subsequent transaction freeze.

Sean Kazmar Jr. Retires

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Former major league infielder Sean Kazmar Jr. is retiring from professional baseball, according to an announcement from the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate in Gwinnett. The 37-year-old appeared in seventeen minor league seasons, the last eight of which came in the Atlanta system.

Kazmar was the prototypical organizational veteran, remarkably going more than a decade in between big league appearances. He broke into the majors in August 2008, not long after his 24th birthday. He made nineteen appearances with the Padres down the stretch that season, then spent the entire 2009-19 campaigns in Triple-A. Kazmar first joined the Braves’ organization in 2013 and played with Gwinnett exclusively through 2019, not appearing in 2020 because of the canceled minor league season.

That perseverance eventually paid off, as Kazmar made it back to the big leagues this past season. The Braves selected his contract in mid-April, although his second and final major league stint proved brief. Kazmar got into three games, making two plate appearances, before being outrighted off the 40-man roster. He spent the final few months of the season back with the Stripers.

Kazmar’s major league career consists of just 48 plate appearances, in which time he managed eight hits and five walks. Merely playing at the professional level for seventeen seasons is itself quite the accomplishment, though. And Kazmar’s return to the majors — however brief — was one of the better stories of the first few months of the season, no doubt made sweeter by the team’s eventual World Series win.

Free Agent Notes: Marte, Castellanos, Lorenzen, Canha

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Starling Marte is the clear top option in this winter’s free agent center field class. Unsurprisingly, early interest seems to be robust, as Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reports (Twitter links) that both the Marlins and Mets have expressed interest in the 33-year-old. Those NL East clubs join the Yankees and division-rival Phillies as known entrants in his market. There are no doubt other clubs who have or will express interest in Marte, who’s coming off a stellar .308/.381/.456 showing between Miami and the A’s.

Miami’s early interest is eyebrow-raising, since he and the Marlins couldn’t agree to terms during midseason extension negotiations this summer. Reports suggested the Fish balked at offering a fourth guaranteed year a few months back, and going to that length again figures to be necessary to land Marte’s services now that he can field offers from all 30 clubs. It’s not as if his stock tanked after the deal, as Marte continued to be an offensive force (.312/.355/.462 with 25 stolen bases in just 56 games) for Oakland down the stretch. MLBTR projects he’ll ultimately land a four-year deal worth $80MM, a figure that would come in quite a bit higher than the money Marte reportedly targeted in original extension talks.

The Mets, meanwhile, are still trying to finalize the structure of their front office. That could pose a challenge for them in making any impactful moves early in the winter, but whomever the Mets hire to lead baseball operations is expected to look for some form of outfield help. Michael Conforto has already rejected New York’s qualifying offer, and his potential departure would leave a vacancy in the grass in Flushing. A Marte pursuit would be one way to replace Conforto, with current center fielder Brandon Nimmo probably sliding over to right field were a deal to get done.

Some news on a few more free agents:

  • Nick Castellanos has already rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer, little more than a formality after he opted out of the remaining two years on his contract. The 29-year-old wouldn’t close the door on a return to Cincinnati, though, telling reporters (including Adam Baum of the Cincinnati Enquirer) he’d listen to any offers from the Reds. “Of course I would. Why wouldn’t I,” Castellanos asked rhetorically. “I feel like there’s still a lot of valuable pieces that are very good to win with. Jonathan India … Jesse Winker is coming into his own, figuring out who he is, figuring out what kind of father he wants to be, he’s doing a great job at that. Joey Votto just reinvented himself. We still have pitching. We have pieces. Why wouldn’t I entertain it?” Regardless of Castellanos’ amenability, a Reds’ return seems highly unlikely. Cincinnati has kicked off the offseason by parting ways with two veteran contributors (Tucker Barnhart and Wade Miley) for little more than financial relief, and general manager Nick Krall has spoken of “(aligning) our payroll to our resources.” It’d be nothing short of shocking if Cincinnati then pivoted to make a serious run at Castellanos, whom MLBTR projects to sign for $115MM over five years.
  • California natives Michael Lorenzen and Mark Canha are both drawing interest from teams on the West Coast, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). Interestingly, Murray hears that at least some teams are willing to consider Lorenzen as a starting pitcher, aligning with the 29-year-old’s hopes for a rotation job. Lorenzen broke into the majors as a starter, but he’s started just five of his 268 appearances with the Reds since the beginning of the 2016 campaign. He’s had success in a multi-inning relief capacity, though, and Lorenz’s five-pitch repertoire could help him navigate an order multiple times. Canha, who has spent his entire major league career with his hometown A’s, hits the open market on the heels of four straight above-average offensive seasons, by measure of wRC+. Entering his age-33 season, the productive outfielder will probably be limited to short-term deals, which could make him a target of low and high payroll clubs alike.

Latest On Tigers’ Pursuit Of A Shortstop

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The Tigers continue to cast a wide net in free agency as they attempt to build off an encouraging 2021 season. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the team has already spoken to representatives for six of this winter’s premier middle infielders (Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Javier Báez, and Chris Taylor). Morosi notes in a separate tweet that there’s some industry uncertainty over whether the Tigers would sign a player in the $250MM range, but that may have less to do with the team’s regard for the free agent shortstops and more to do with Detroit’s rotation needs.

It’s commonplace for teams to perform due diligence checks with agents in the offseason, even if the team isn’t optimistic about its chances to sign a certain player. Still, there is a perception among some in the sport that a few teams could be aggressive and move quickly in their pursuit of high-end free agents. The Tigers were among the teams listed as candidates to sign prominent players before the current CBA expires.

Detroit can afford to be opportunistic in the very literal sense that they have a ton of open payroll space. Even after extending Jonathan Schoop and their recent acquisition of Tucker Barnhart, the team has a projected 2022 payroll of just $93MM per Roster Resource. Non-tenders would shrink that estimate even further, and Detroit has a few prominent non-tender candidates (most notably Matthew Boyd) on large projected arb salaries. Given that the Tigers ran out a $200MM roster as recently as 2017, it’s easy to see the current payroll swelling in order to fling open the team’s competitive window.

Owing to this financial flexibility and a middle-infield that collectively posted a sub-.700 OPS last season, it’s understandable why the team would zero in on the solutions presented on the open market. Complicating this approach, however, is that Detroit has a very young rotation that posted middling run-prevention numbers last year.

The high-upside group of starters is likely to tap into some of its potential with more experience, but there’s validity in surrounding this pitching core with more proven commodities. After all, even if the team is hopeful each of Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning take a step forward, certain rotation-wide stats like a 4.66 FIP (4.17 ERA) and a low 18.8% strikeout rate portray a staff that is very much headed for regression.

Those three youngsters, of course, were not the only members of this past season’s rotation. Both Boyd and Spencer Turnbull soaked up innings for Detroit in 2021, providing some of the best numbers the pitching staff had to offer. Unfortunately, both players saw their productive seasons end prematurely. Boyd pitched to a personal-best 3.89 ERA across 15 starts for the team before being shut down to undergo forearm surgery that looks likely to lead to him being let go.

The 29-year-old Turnbull was amidst an even stronger season. Through eight starts and 50 innings, the right-hander posted a 2.88 ERA with superb command and ground-ball tendencies, to say nothing of the no-hitter he twirled against Seattle in May. News broke that Turnbull would require Tommy John surgery in July and, similar to Boyd, will likely miss the majority of the 2022 season. While the injury-created voids in next year’s rotation are far from ideal, one silver lining is that Detroit will at least maintain control of Turnbull through the 2024 season (barring changes to the service time structure in the next CBA).

Taking a two-pronged approach to the free agent market makes perfect sense then, since the Tigers can invest just about any level of resources to upgrade their middle infield and then use another chunk of their payroll to buttress their rotation. Detroit has already been linked to a number of mid-rotation starters, giving them multiple avenues to make a splash this offseason.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The 2019-20 AL Central champs faceplanted in a 2021 season that was disastrous enough for the Twins to trade away longtime top starter Jose Berrios. Owner Jim Pohlad has made clear that the Twins will not go into a rebuild, so president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine will be looking for immediate help to remedy the roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Josh Donaldson, 3B: $50MM through 2023 (includes $8MM buyout of $16MM 2024 club option)
  • Max Kepler, OF: $16.25MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM 2024 club option)
  • Jorge Polanco, 2B/SS: $12.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM 2024 club option; contract also contains $12MM 2025 club option)
  • Miguel Sano, 1B/DH: $12MM through 2022 (includes $2.75MM buyout of $14MM 2023 club option)
  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: $8.55MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM 2026 club option)
  • Kenta Maeda, RHP: $6MM through 2023
  • Total 2022 commitment: $45.8MM
  • Total long-term commitment: $105.3MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Alex Colome, RHP: Twins declined their end of a $5.5MM mutual option (paid $1.25MM buyout)

Free Agents

Very little went right for the Twins in 2021. Byron Buxton looked like an MVP candidate when healthy but played just 67 games thanks to a hip flexor strain and broken hand. The 2020 Cy Young runner-up, Kenta Maeda, pitched through hip and elbow troubles before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Mitch Garver, Michael Pineda and Max Kepler all had lengthy IL stays.  Top prospect Royce Lewis tore his ACL before the season began. The similarly touted Alex Kirilloff tried to play through a torn ligament in his wrist before he, too, went under the knife. There was a team-wide Covid outbreak in late April. Nearly every free-agent pickup — J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Andrelton Simmons, Alex Colome — fell well short of expectations. Things snowballed quickly.

The end result was not only a 73-89 record but also a deadline sell-off that few would’ve expected on Opening Day. Jose Berrios, Nelson Cruz, Hansel Robles and Happ were shipped out for younger players — a series of trades that netted the Twins a trio of prospects who are all featured on at least one prominent Top 100 ranking. Austin Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson and Joe Ryan are now among the team’s top farmhands, and Ryan has already gotten his feet wet in the Majors.

That series of trades and a few free-agent departures leaves the Twins with quite a few holes on the big league roster. Based on the previously mentioned no-rebuild stance from ownership, it seems likely the Twins will seek to fill those holes this winter rather than completely tear down a roster that recently won a pair of division titles.

That does not, however, preclude the Twins from making further subtractions from the current group. Among the team’s prominent trade candidates are the aforementioned Buxton, Kepler, Garver and perhaps younger backstop Ryan Jeffers. Josh Donaldson’s name came up at the trade deadline and could do so again this winter.

The Twins and Buxton’s reps at Jet Sports discussed an extension this summer but were unable to come to terms on a deal. Reports indicated that Minnesota had been willing to commit $80MM over a seven-year term — a baseline framework amenable to both sides. However, Buxton’s camp sought a richer package of incentives in the event that the ultra-talented but oft-injured center fielder began to show more durability.

The Twins and Buxton figure to rekindle extension talks this winter, and Buxton’s case can only be buoyed by the fact that he closed out the season with a .314/.375/.686 slash in his final 112 plate appearances after returning from that ill-timed hand fracture. If the two parties can’t find a middle ground, it’s plenty feasible that the Twins will field offers on one of the more dynamic talents in the game.

In many ways, the difficulties in finding a common ground during extension talks would be mirrored in theoretical trade talks. Other clubs, particularly those seeking defensive upgrades, would relish the opportunity to install Buxton in center field. At the same time, he’s a free agent next winter, and his ongoing injury troubles will make teams wary of parting with too much in a potential trade. Buxton’s prodigious talent and repeated IL stints present the Twins with something of a conundrum, regardless of which path they explore.

Elsewhere on the roster, the Twins could look to capitalize on affordable control and organizational depth. Kepler’s huge 2019 season looks like an outlier at this point, but he’s a terrific defender in right field who can handle center and has 25- to 30-homer pop. He may not be an All-Star, but his blend of walks, power and defense are appealing even if aggressive shifting and an extreme-pull approach will continue to suppress his batting average. With a healthier Kirilloff, a more-experienced Trevor Larnach and the looming debuts of top prospects Lewis and Martin — both can play shortstop and center field — the Twins have some depth to explore outfield trades.

Behind the plate, both Garver and Jeffers have appeal as starting-caliber options. Garver has been one of the game’s most productive offensive catchers since his 2019 breakout (combined .254/.348/.546 slash, 135 wRC+). Jeffers entered the 2021 season as a Top 100 prospect, and while he didn’t hit like he did in his brief 2020 call to the Majors, he’s a strong defender with plenty of pop and untapped potential at the plate. He’s also 24 years old and under club control another five seasons. Garver is controlled through 2023. There’s room for both on the roster, particularly if Garver can spend some additional time at DH. Still, catching-needy clubs with pitching to spare (e.g. the Marlins) will surely be checking in with the Twins.

However the Twins proceed on the trade market, they’ll likely focus on young pitching in return. The trade of Berrios, the injury to Maeda and the potential free-agent departure of Michael Pineda leave the rotation in a threadbare state. Joe Ryan, acquired from the Rays in the Cruz trade, ranks as Baseball America’s No. 91 prospect and posted a 4.05 ERA with a 30-to-5 K/BB ratio in 26 2/3 frames down the stretch. (Ryan also won a Silver Medal with Team USA in this year’s Olympics.) Rookie Bailey Ober had a quietly strong showing, rounding into form after a rough start (3.59 ERA, 20.9 K-BB% through 67 2/3 innings from July 1 onward).

Beyond that pair of promising youngsters, there’s no certainty. That’s in large part due to the fact that the Twins’ injury troubles extended to the upper echelon of their pitching prospects, too. Each of Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino and Josh Winder missed time due to injury, as did fifth starter/swingman Randy Dobnak. The club will hope to extract some quality innings from that group, and perhaps Woods Richardson, in 2022.

The lack of current rotation pieces, however, will push the Twins to not only target controllable young arms in trade but also some veterans to plug right into the mix. The offseason trade market will include the likes of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray — any of whom could appeal to Minnesota. (Castillo and Gray, in particular, have multiple seasons of control remaining.) The Twins also have the means to be active in free agency; it’s just a question of the extent to which they’ll spend.

First and foremost, coming off a disastrous season, the Twins aren’t likely to appeal to a Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander type — an older, high-end free agent seeking to jump right into an obvious contender’s rotation. It’s true that we’ve never seen the Twins sign a free agent for more than Ervin Santana’s four-year, $55MM contract back in 2014, but Minnesota has made $100MM+ offers to both Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler in the past.

With that in mind, it’s worth taking a quick high-level look at next year’s payroll. Minnesota has just $45.8MM in guaranteed money on the books for 2022. Even after factoring in around $25MM of arbitration salaries and pre-arb players to round out the roster, the Twins will be some $50MM south of their record $129MM payroll. Non-tenders and trades of current players could create further space, but there’s already a good bit of room to spend.

It’d rank as something of an upset if they actually won the bidding on a Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman or Marcus Stroman, but the Twins at least have the payroll capacity to compete for those types of names. They were reportedly very interested in Stroman at the 2019 deadline, when he was traded to the Mets, and they’d be a plausible landing spot for a free-agent arm who’s still relatively young, such as Eduardo Rodriguez. There’s some mutual interest in a Pineda reunion, and other mid-rotation options include Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Jon Gray, among many others. The Twins need at least two, if not three options to stabilize the starting staff this winter.

Looking to the relief corps, things are similarly hazy. Taylor Rogers has been one of the game’s best left-handed relievers in recent years, but he ended the season on the injured list with a sprained ligament in his pitching hand. If the Twins are confident he’ll be good to go come Opening Day, a $6.7MM projected salary is plenty affordable. If there’s more doubt about his health, one can imagine they’ll at least debate whether to tender him a contract.

With Colome’s option being declined and uncertainty about Rogers’ health, the Twins will be on the hunt for an arm or two. The current front office regime has only signed one free-agent reliever to a notable multi-year deal — Addison Reed’s ill-fated two-year, $16.75MM pact — so there’s little chance they’ll play at the top of the market, where Raisel Iglesias should command a three or four-year deal with an eight-figure annual salary. Kendall Graveman, too, could be in position for a three-year pact, but it’s reasonable enough to expect the Twins could be in on just about any other relief arm this winter. History suggests they’re likelier to ink a couple of lower-cost veterans than dole out a hefty two-year deal — perhaps bailing out a reliever whose market didn’t develop as hoped (much like they did with Colome last winter).

Turning to the lineup, the Twins’ bevy of trade possibilities opens the door for any number of free-agent pursuits. They’re a clear fit for a shortstop now that Jorge Polanco has moved to second base and enjoyed a career year there. At the same time, when pitching is such a dire need, it’s worth wondering whether the best use of resources would be to plop down a nine-figure guarantee to one of the market’s top-end shortstops. Minnesota did have interest in Marcus Semien last winter, but there’s a difference between pursuing him as a potential bargain and paying top-of-the-market dollars on a five- or six-year deal this time around.

If Buxton and/or Kepler is moved this winter, the Twins have the payroll space to pivot and bring in a veteran outfielder. Nelson Cruz’s departure could open the door for Minnesota to move Miguel Sano to DH and explore first base options — be it a free agent like Anthony Rizzo or a potential trade candidate such as Luke Voit. Sano himself is a candidate to be shopped, though it’s worth noting that he hit .251/.330/.503 with 21 homers in his final 375 plate appearances. Perhaps it’s just coincidence, but that production began the day after the league’s memo announcing foreign-substance checks for pitchers. It also stands to reason that Minnesota will at least talk to the 40-year-old Cruz about a 2022 return after two and a half very productive years at Target Field.

If all of that seems rather ambiguous, it’s largely a reflection of the nature of the Twins’ current roster. While some of their division rivals have more straightforward paths this winter — the Royals will focus on bullpen help to supplement a young core; the Tigers are going to aggressively pursue a shortstop and a starting pitcher — the Twins are in a different spot. The core that emerged from their last rebuilding process is beginning to turn over, but the farm system is strong enough and the payroll clean enough that another multi-year rebuilding effort doesn’t seem necessary.

Acquiring pitching is likely to be a focal point, but the open-ended nature of the Twins’ lineup gives Falvey, Levine and the rest of the front office the ability to get creative in building out the roster. A straightforward pursuit of rotation help could result in signing multiple veteran free agents, but the Twins could also focus on the trade market for their starting pitching needs and surprise as a landing spot for someone like Rizzo or Trevor Story. Buxton could be traded for even more controllable young talent or signed to serve as a franchise centerpiece in spite of durability concerns. The Twins don’t have to trade Kepler or have to trade a catcher, but other teams will inquire. The possibilities here are much more plentiful than with most clubs, and the reality is that the front office can’t even know for certain how it’ll play out.

It all makes for a fairly fascinating offseason in Minnesota. As was the case with the 2021 trade deadline, Minnesota will be heavily involved in a broad-reaching number of storylines. The Twins might blur the lines between “buyer” and “seller” this offseason, but whatever shape their winter takes, they’ll be active.

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