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Orioles Re-Sign Spenser Watkins

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The Orioles have re-signed right-hander Spenser Watkins to a new minor league deal, MASNsports.com’s Melanie Newman reports (Twitter link).  The contract contains an invitation to Baltimore’s spring camp.

Watkins elected free agency four days ago, shortly after the Orioles outrighted him off their 40-man roster.  The 2021 season saw Watkins made his MLB debut, and the righty posted an 8.07 ERA over 54 2/3 innings for the O’s.  Watkins started 10 of his 16 appearances, and pitched well over his first three starts before batters started adjusting in a big way.  Watkins allowed 14 homers over his 54 2/3 frames, and had only a 13.7% strikeout rate.

Never a big strikeout pitcher even in the minors, Watkins has an 3.86 ERA over 625 1/3 innings of minor league work, mostly in the Tigers’ farm system before Detroit released him in 2020.  Baltimore signed Watkins to a minors deal last offseason and he performed well enough at Triple-A Norfolk to finally get the call to the Show.  The 29-year-old Watkins will likely continue to serve as rotation depth in the minors, though he’ll get a chance to compete for a roster spot at Spring Training.

Phillies To Hire Anirudh Kilambi As Assistant GM

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The Phillies are hiring Anirudh Kilambi as the team’s new assistant general manager, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  The 27-year-old Kilambi comes to Philadelphia after working as the Rays’ assistant director of baseball research and development, and according to The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, Kilambi will now oversee the Phils’ research and development division.

Kilambi began interning with the Rays front office in 2015, and worked his way up to his AD role in a little over three years’ time.  In a piece from last August, Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times named Kilambi as one of the many organizational figures instrumental in the Rays’ ability to find and develop a seeming unending stream of quality relief pitchers.

As evidenced by the long list of Tampa executives who have gone on to lead or work within other front offices, teams are forever curious to learn some of the Rays’ secrets.  If Kilambi can duplicate his magic in Philadelphia, it will be a particular boon to a team that has been plagued by a severe lack of reliable relief pitching in recent years.

Nationals Notes: Soto, Schwarber, Front Office

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Before Juan Soto signs an extension with the Nationals, “the first thing that’s going to have to happen is that he knows that he’s working with an ownership that’s going to annually try to compete and win,” agent Scott Boras told The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty and other reporters.  “And then I think once he knows that, then he’ll be ready to sit down and talk whenever they choose to talk.”

Soto’s time in D.C. has already produced one World Series title, of course, and the Nationals have been one of the league’s better terms over the last decade, as president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo noted to Dougherty and company.  That said, the Nats have also finished in last place in both seasons since that 2019 championship, and traded away a significant amount of veteran talent at the last trade deadline.  It seems like the team will reload to some extent this offseason, but it is unclear whether or not the Nationals will make a full-on plunge to try and compete as soon as 2022.

Rizzo did make some indication towards a bigger push this winter, as when asked if he would like to see Kyle Schwarber back in Washington, Rizzo responded with “Why wouldn’t we? I love him.”  (hat tip to Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe)  After being non-tendered by the Cubs last winter, Schwarber signed in D.C. for a one-year deal worth $10MM in guaranteed money, but his price tag for a return will be much steeper after his huge bounce-back season.  Bringing Schwarber back would be a clear sign of the Nationals’ intent to contend, and he would also give Soto some much-needed lineup protection.

Even amidst the team’s struggles in 2021, Soto continued to make his case as arguably the game’s best hitter.  Soto hit .313/.465/.534 with 29 home runs over 654 plate appearances, and has now produced four all-world seasons before his 23rd birthday.  Given Soto’s youth and his already-incredible production, it is very easy to imagine that a Soto extension would be the most expensive contract in baseball history.

Soto is projected to earn $16.2MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, a massive raise commensurate with his continued great numbers.  Though Soto is still under arbitration control through 2024 as a Super Two player, “we’re not in the mind-set where we got him under control for three more years and have three years to wait. That’s not our view,” Rizzo said.  The Nationals might not immediately jump into deep extension talks, however, as Rizzo said the club will wait until after the new collective bargaining agreement is settled “just to see what the rules are” for baseball’s business going forward.

In the more immediate future, Rizzo is focused on making another change to the Nats’ front office.  In another piece from Dougherty, Rizzo said the team is going to hire a new director of player development, and candidates from both within and outside the organization will be considered.  Assistant GM Mark Scialabba had been in charge of player development but will now move to the player personnel division, while former baseball ops coordinator John Wulf has been promoted to assistant director of player development.

Marlins Notes: Avisail, Castellanos, Lopez, Hernandez, Blue Jays

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The Marlins are intent on adding offense, and are exploring both the free agent and trade routes to accomplish this goal.  On the open market, the Marlins have shown interest in Avisail Garcia (as per The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson) and they have spoken with agent Scott Boras, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.  Boras represents any number of top hitters in this year’s free agent market, though Heyman observes that outfielder Nick Castellanos is from Miami, even if it’s “hard to see [the Marlins] affording him.”

Using MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list as reference, we have Castellanos pegged for a five-year, $115MM deal, not to mention the additional draft pick compensation the Marlins would need to surrender since Castellanos has rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer.  Garcia is projected for three years and $36MM, which much more realistic even for a Marlins team that has expressed a willingness to flex a bit more financial muscle this winter.  As it happens, our Garcia estimate is pretty close to the three-year, $30MM extension offer the Marlins floated at Starling Marte last summer, so that could give some hint as to what the team is prepared to spend.

Garcia is less expensive and is a better defender than Castellanos, though Castellanos has a more consistent track record as a hitter.  Garcia does happen to be coming off one of the best seasons of his career, after hitting .262/.330/.490 with a personal-best 29 homers in 515 PA with the Brewers.  While Garcia alone wouldn’t elevate Miami’s lineup, Heyman believes the Marlins could “acquire multiple hitters that cost somewhat less” than one big splashy acquisition like Castellanos.

The opportunity also exists for the Marlins to trade from their pitching surplus, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays are one of the teams who have been in touch with Miami.  Heyman identifies Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez as the Marlins’ “most available arms,” likely in the context of Lopez and Hernandez being the type of big league-ready pitchers that would appeal to a win-now team like Toronto.

Since the Jays have a catching surplus and the Marlins have a need behind the plate, Alejandro Kirk seems like a logical trade possibility, Morosi opines.  Kirk may have the most trade value of any Blue Jays catcher besides star prospect Gabriel Moreno, and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes that Moreno “appears extremely unlikely” to be dealt anywhere.  Toronto could also be a fit for the Marlins’ outfield needs, as Nicholson-Smith notes that the Jays have been getting a lot of interest in their catchers and outfielders at the GM Meetings.

Mets Still Targeting David Stearns After His Brewers Contract Ends

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1:15PM: Stearns is “happily employed” with the Brewers, he told MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Stearns also declined to clarify how many years or possible years may remain on his Brewers contract.

8:14AM: The Mets have twice been denied in their attempts to interview David Stearns about their president of baseball operations job, as Brewers owner Mark Attanasio declined the Mets’ requests both last season and earlier this offseason.  However, the Mets are seemingly prepared to simply wait the Brewers out, as The Athletic’s Tim Britton, Britt Ghiroli, and Ken Rosenthal report that New York will approach Stearns about their front office vacancy next winter, when his contract with the Brewers may or may not be up.

In the interim, the Mets’ search has been focused on assistant general manager types, who would become the club’s GM in 2022.  (Former Nationals AGM Adam Cromie has recently emerged as a favorite for the job.)  Should the Mets’ plan to land Stearns come to fruition, Cromie or whomever ends up in the GM role would then become the ops department’s chief lieutenant to Stearns, who would carry the official PBO title and sit at the top of the Amazins’ decision-making pyramid.

It would make for an unusual dynamic for at least one season in the team’s front office, not that there has been much normalcy associated with the Mets’ very public search to date.  Several potential candidates have already declined interviews with the Mets, quite likely because of the associated uncertainty.  Looking it from the perspective of an assistant GM, if you’re comfortable with your current team, why take the risk of accepting what might be a one-year job, should Stearns (or another incoming boss that you aren’t familiar with) decides that they want their own handpicked GM as their top lieutenant?

Waiting for Stearns also carries its own set of challenges for the Mets.  “Stearns has serious interest in the position,” Britton/Ghiroli/Rosenthal write, which isn’t really surprising given that Stearns grew up as a Mets fan in New York and even interned in the club’s front office in 2008.  It could be that some unofficial back-channel communication may have already taken place between the two sides, though Stearns’ feelings about the job could change if and when he has a formal interview with team officials.  (It can also be assumed that Attanasio would likely be on the lookout for any sort of early talks of any kind between Stearns and the Mets, should he feel tampering is taking place.)

Stearns has also enjoyed a lot of success in Milwaukee, and could prefer to remain with the Brewers on another contract extension, or perhaps even investigate a potential job opening with another team besides the Brewers or Mets.  Plus, Stearns’ contractual situation is a little unclear.  The Mets reportedly believe Stearns will be available next winter, though reports have suggested some type of vesting option could be in place for Stearns to remain with in Milwaukee through the 2023 season.  If this option does exist and it vests, the Mets would find themselves putting their front office plans on hold for yet another season — assuming Stearns would remain at the top of their list, and another executive didn’t emerge in the interim.

Phillies Interested In Starling Marte, Aaron Loup

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The Phillies have interest in center fielder Starling Marte and reliever Aaron Loup, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links).  Since the outfield and bullpen are the top priorities for the Phils this winter, it isn’t surprising that Marte and Loup have gained the club’s attention.  Among the several teams involved in Loup’s market, Heyman also notes that the Mets are looking into bringing Loup back to Queens for a longer stint after the southpaw dominated out of New York’s bullpen in 2021.

Marte is really the only true full-time center fielder in this year’s free agent class, though Marte’s 2021 numbers would’ve still put him at or near the top of a deeper center field market.  Marte hit .310/.383/.458 with 12 home runs and a league-best 47 stolen bases over 526 combined plate appearances with the Marlins and Athletics, despite missing about five weeks due to a fractured rib.  Marte did benefit from a .369 BABIP, though his excellent speed and baserunning played a big factor in that extra batted-ball “luck.”  His 8.2% walk rate was still below average, though also the best of Marte’s 10 big league seasons.

Reviews were a little mixed on Marte’s glovework, as Defensive Runs Saved had him at -4, though UZR/150 (+1) and Outs Above Average (+4) gave his center field defense positive grades.  As Marte enters his age-33 season, however, he certainly still seems athletic enough to provide some quality help up the middle.

This is all music to the Phillies’ ears, considering the club has Bryce Harper and not much else in its current outfield mix.  Both Andrew McCutchen and Odubel Herrera are free agents, and while Herrera had a pretty modest 2021 season, he was still the best of a revolving door of subpar options for the Phils in center.  Installing Marte in center field and at or near the top of the Philadelphia lineup would fill a couple of major holes for the club.

Signing Marte would represent yet another big expenditure on the Phillies’ books, though president Dave Dombrowski had given some indication (“I don’t find it restrictive“) that ownership has given him some spending flexibility.  With roughly $171.1MM committed to payroll in 2022, the Phillies could afford to give Marte a big contract and still have some significant room under whatever the luxury tax threshold ends up being next season.  Or, the Phils might even be comfortable going over the tax threshold, as owner John Middleton has indicated in the past that he would be okay with paying the tax in the right circumstance.

Loup won’t cost anywhere near Marte’s price range, but after signing a one-year/$3MM deal with the Mets last winter, Loup is in line for a much more significant contract this time around.  The veteran left-hander had one of the better seasons of any reliever in baseball, with a tiny 0.95 ERA over 56 2/3 innings out of New York’s bullpen.  While Loup’s .229 wOBA far outpaced his .272 xwOBA, Loup also had a 50.4% grounder rate to go along with above-average strikeout (26.1%) and walk (7.3%) rates.

Even if Loup pitches closer to his 3.32 SIERA next year, the Mets would certainly still like that kind of production back in their pen, and Loup would be even more of a boost to a Philadelphia relief corps that badly struggled in 2021.  Loup doesn’t much closing experience, so while he isn’t the lockdown ninth-inning answer Dombrowski is looking for, Loup can at least help the Phillies take a lead into the ninth.

Tigers Interested In Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani

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11:48AM: Right-hander Anthony DeSclafani is also on the Tigers’ radar, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Like Gray, DeSclafani also didn’t receive a qualifying offer.

11:37AM: The Tigers have “early interest” in Jon Gray, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter).  Gray joins Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Matz, and Detroit legend Justin Verlander as free agent pitchers linked to the Tigers’ search for a veteran arm or two to bolster their young rotation.

Given their interest in qualifying offer recipients Rodriguez and Verlander, it doesn’t appear that the Tigers are necessarily deterred by the idea of giving up draft pick compensation to make a big pitching signing, though Gray wouldn’t require any compensation since the Rockies (curiously) didn’t issue a QO to the right-hander.  This surely gives Gray some extra appeal from Detroit’s perspective, though naturally the same could be said for many teams.

Gray only turned 30 last week, so if he does end up in the Motor City, he should have more prime years to contribute to a Tigers squad that is looking to get back into contention as early as 2022.  Detroit is expected to spend some serious money this offseason, linked to the market for the big free agent shortstops as well as pitchers like Gray who could slot in near the front of the rotation.  MLBTR projected Gray (ranked 19th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents) to land four years and $56MM in free agency, with Tim Dierkes predicting that Gray would in fact sign with the Tigers.

Signing a QO-rejecting free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2022 draft.  This would be either their second-round selection or their Competitive Balance Round B selection, depending on where Detroit is drawn in this year’s Competitive Balance Round lottery.  It is also possible that the draft and compensation rules will be altered in the next collective bargaining agreement, so while the Tigers would surely still have to give up something as a penalty for signing a QO free agent, the specific nature of that compensation might not be known until the new CBA is settled.

Under the current rules, the Tigers would also have to give up their fourth-highest draft pick if they signed two free agents who rejected the qualifying offer.  It can be assumed that Detroit would rather not surrender multiple picks if necessary, so if the Tigers did make a big splash and ink one of the QO free agents, it would make them even more focused on non-QO players like Gray for any other big signings.

As far as the Rockies’ own efforts to retain Gray, the club attempted to sign Gray to a three-year extension worth roughly $35MM-$40MM before the end of the regular season, but the righty rejected the offer.  It doesn’t seem like any further negotiation has taken place, since Colorado GM Bill Schmidt told The Athletic’s Nick Groke that “there hasn’t been any conversation” with Gray’s camp since “the end of the season….[Gray’s agent] said they’d stay in touch.  I assume they’re trying to figure out what the market is.”

Dodgers Notes: Friedman, Payroll, Betts, Roberts, Heaney, Injuries

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Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman spoke with reporters (including The Los Angeles Times’ Mike DiGiovanna, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, and The Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett) about several topics surrounding the team, including how much payroll might be available to acquire or re-sign premium players this winter.  Unsurprisingly, Friedman didn’t state any kind of dollar figure, noting that he has yet to receive an official budget for 2022.  That said, he noted that “our [ownership] group has demonstrated at every single turn its strong desire to win, and this year will be no different.  What that means in terms of an actual payroll number, I’m not sure, but I feel confident we’ll have the requisite talent to be a real championship competitor.”

By far the biggest spenders in baseball in 2021, the Dodgers soared over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold with an approximated $275MM tax number.  While it isn’t clear if L.A. will quite hit those payroll heights again, it seems very likely that the Dodgers will pay more tax penalties next year considering how much money is already on their books.  Of course, we also don’t know what the luxury tax threshold will even be next year, or if the CBT will be altered as players and owners negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement.

More from Friedman…

  • It doesn’t seem like Mookie Betts will need any sort of procedure to fix the hip injuries that plagued him in 2021.  Hip inflammation twice sent Betts to the 10-day injured list for brief absences last year, and while his production was down from his usual numbers, Betts still hit .264/.367/.487 with 23 homers over 550 plate appearances even while being less than 100 percent for most of the season.
  • Freidman reiterated that the team wants manager Dave Roberts “to be a big part of what we accomplish looking forward,” though the Dodgers have more immediate offseason business that must be addressed before the club can talk with Roberts about a contract extension.  Roberts’ four-year deal is up after the 2022 season, and the 49-year-old has an outstanding 542-329 record over his six seasons as the Los Angeles manager, with the 2020 World Series championship, two other NL pennants, and five NL West titles on his resume.
  • The Dodgers already made a quick move to sign Andrew Heaney to a one-year, $8.5MM deal, and the Dodgers “feel like there’s some real upside we can tap into,” Friedman said.  “He’s got really strong ingredients in place, and there are a few different levers we feel like we can potentially pull with him that he’s bought into and is eager to dive in on.”  After a rough 2021 season, Heaney is hoping to rebound in Los Angeles and then re-enter the free agent market on the strength of a much better platform year.  This one-year commitment is just fine with Friedman, as he noted that adding a veteran as rotation depth allows the Dodgers’ pitching prospects more seasoning time in the minors.
  • Friedman also provided on some of the Dodgers’ Tommy John recovery cases.  Tommy Kahnle and Caleb Ferguson respectively underwent their procedures in August 2020 and September 2020, and the PBO said both hurlers should “be ready by Opening Day or shortly thereafter.” Dustin May underwent his TJ surgery almost exactly six months ago and has already started a throwing program, tentatively setting up a return after the All-Star Game.  “Everything to this point has been incredibly positive.  I think [May] is going to impact us at some point in the second half,” Friedman said.

Yankees Interested In Starling Marte, Bryan Reynolds

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The Yankees are known to be looking for center field help, and the club is considering options at the top of the free agent and trade markets.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Yankees and Mariners are among the teams interested in acquiring Bryan Reynolds from the Pirates, while on the free agent front, NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty reports that “Starling Marte is, at the very least, on the Yankees’ radar.”

This isn’t the first time that the Bronx Bombers have looked into Marte, as the Yankees had some talks with the Marlins about a potential swap back in July.  Marte ended up being dealt to the A’s, while the Yankees instead augmented their outfield by acquiring Joey Gallo from the Rangers.  As for Reynolds, New York joins the long list of teams who have reportedly asked about Pittsburgh’s All-Star center fielder in the last six months alone — the Astros, Guardians, Marlins, Brewers, and Braves have all been linked to Reynolds, and Seattle tried to deal for Reynolds prior to the trade deadline.

Aaron Hicks, of course, is ostensibly already the Yankees’ starting center fielder, so landing a proven everyday star like Marte or Reynolds would amount to a major sea change in the team’s outfield depth chart.  However, Hicks has battled multiple injuries in recent years, including a wrist surgery in May that ended his 2021 season after 32 games.  Hicks is expected to return to baseball activities in December and be ready for Spring Training, yet as GM Brian Cashman told reporters yesterday, “We just want to make sure we put the best team out there, so no guarantees right now for anybody….We just don’t have a pure center fielder at this point with the unknown of Aaron Hicks not playing for a while.”

If Hicks is healthy and Marte, Reynolds, or another notable starting outfielder was added, New York would suddenly be awash in outfield options.  Aaron Judge obviously has right field locked down, Giancarlo Stanton would play every day as either the DH or in the corners, and the likes of Gallo, Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, and Estevan Florial are also on hand.

In the event of a Reynolds trade, it isn’t out of the question that any of those latter three names could be part of the very big trade package the Pirates would demand in any Reynolds deal.  None would be headliners in that trade package, however, as Andujar, Frazier, and Florial have all seen their star prospect status dim over the last couple of years.  Gallo or Hicks probably wouldn’t have much trade appeal for the rebuilding Pirates, though either veteran could potentially be flipped in another deal if the Yankees were looking to create room, even if New York would likely have to eat a good portion of the $41MM left on Hicks’ contract.

Should the Yankees balk at Pittsburgh’s asking price for Reynolds, signing Marte wouldn’t come with any prospect cost, even if he might require something in the neighborhood of a four-year, $80MM contract.  This type of spending shouldn’t necessarily be beyond a Bombers team that ducked under the luxury tax line last season, even if the Yankees additionally gave out some big dollars to address their needs at shortstop, first base, or perhaps in the rotation.

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