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Archives for January 2022

Trade Candidate: Didi Gregorius

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There’s no denying that Didi Gregorius had a rough campaign in 2021, as he struggled on both sides of the ball. Offensively, he hit .209/.270/.370, resulting in a wRC+ of just 68, the lowest such mark of his career, outside of an eight-game cup of coffee in his 2012 debut. On the defensive side of things, all the advanced metrics agreed that he wasn’t at his best, as his DRS was -10, his UZR was -2.6 and his OAA was -17.

Those struggles were significant enough that he may not have a firm grip on the Phillies’ shortstop job in 2022. In a year-end press conference, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski had this to say on the matter: “It very well could be him. But he knows, we’ve had a discussion with him that he needs to be better. And we’re in a position where we also are going to be open-minded to what’s going to take place at shortstop next year. It could be internal, could be him if he comes back. …. Maybe it is him. He’ll come in (next season) in shape, but he’s not guaranteed — and he’s been told — that he’s for sure the shortstop. It doesn’t mean he can’t play other positions for us too, and maybe we’ll have a DH that’ll be a part of our club too.”

If the club no longer views Gregorius as their answer at shortstop, that raises multiple possibilities going forward, as Dombrowski laid out. As for the “internal” option he mentioned, the most likely candidate there is Bryson Stott, who spent the bulk of last year cruising through Double-A pitching. In 80 games there, he hit .301/.368/.481, for a wRC+ of 130. After getting promoted to Triple-A, he got into 10 games there and hit .303/.439/.394. In 26 games at the Arizona Fall League, he put up a line of .318/.445/.489.

It certainly seems feasible that Stott could join the big league club in 2022 and bump Sir Didi off his throne and to another position. With Jean Segura at second base, Gregorius could potentially help out at third. Alec Bohm also struggled in 2021, but should be given a chance to rebound based on his youth, prospect pedigree and excellent rookie season in 2020. If the NL adds the DH, as Dombrowski alluded to, that could lead to Gregorius being used in utility role, playing various infield positions as other players are rotated through the DH slot, in addition to seeing some time at DH himself.

But Dombrowski also said that Gregorius could be the shortstop “if he comes back,” seemingly implying that there’s a chance Gregorius is wearing a different jersey in 2022. Despite a legendary crop of superstar free agent shortstops, there are a handful of teams that have stayed out of the sweepstakes thus far and could potentially be interested in Gregorius. He has just one year and $15.25MM remaining on his contract and is about to turn 32, meaning a return to his previous form is certainly not out of the question.

Coming into the offseason, the Yankees were widely expected to be in the hunt for a big-ticket shortstop acquisition after moving Gleyber Torres over to second base. However, they have been rumored to be eschewing a large expenditure in that area, reportedly believing that prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza can provide them with an internal solution. But Volpe is yet to play above High-A and Peraza has only eight games of Triple-A experience. Bringing Gregorius back to the Bronx would be a fun story and also make some sense, as he could diversify a righty-heavy lineup with his lefty bat while holding down shortstop until one of the kids takes his spot.

The Astros have taken a similar approach to the Yankees, seemingly content to wait for prospect Jeremy Pena and uninterested in splurging on an expensive free agent shortstop to replace Carlos Correa. But Pena only played 30 Triple-A games in 2021 and just 37 games in total. It would probably be unwise to expect him to simply jump up to the majors and take over as the full-time shortstop without a hitch. Having someone like Gregorius on hand would be a better fallback option than Aledmys Diaz, who hasn’t played more than nine games at shortstop in a season since 2018.

The Rockies don’t yet have a replacement for Trevor Story, who seems unlikely to return in free agency. There are internal candidates such as Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers, but they are capable of playing elsewhere on the diamond, meaning it would be quite easy to fit Gregorius into the equation. Perhaps playing his home games at Coors Field could help him get his groove back at the plate.

The Angels have improved their pitching staff this offseason but still have question marks on the infield, with Tyler Wade and David Fletcher currently pencilled into the middle of the diamond. With the club clearly in win-now mode as they try to take advantage of their best remaining years of the Trout-Ohtani combo, they could grab Gregorius and bump Wade into a utility role.

If the Phils can find a taker for Gregorius, it could clear the deck for Stott or perhaps an acquisition in free agency. Carlos Correa and Trevor Story remain unsigned and will need to find new teams once the lockout is complete. As a big-market team with an uncertain shortstop picture, the Phillies stand out as one of the teams that could theoretically be a fit for them. The club’s Opening Day payroll is currently projected to be $181MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s about $10MM shy of last year’s number, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It’s possible the club decides to push the budget a bit farther this year, but finding a taker for some or all of the $15.25MM owed to Gregorius would give them more wiggle room to address shortstop along with other areas of weakness, such as center field, left field and the bullpen.

Who’s Blocking Triston Casas?

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In the 2018 MLB draft, the Red Sox used their first round pick, 26th overall, to select infielder Triston Casas out of American Heritage High School in Plantation, Florida. Only 18 years old at the time, Casas was put to work straight away, playing two rookie ball games before thumb surgery forced him to miss the remainder of the year.

In 2019, Casas was sent to A-ball and crushed 19 home runs in 118 games. His overall line was .254/.349/.472, with his 11.8% walk rate helping to create that separation between his batting average and on-base percentage, as well as a wRC+ of 136. His 23.5% strikeout rate could be considered a tad high, but not alarming. He was rewarded for that fine performance with two games at High-A to finish the year.

The pandemic wiped out the minors entirely in 2020, but Casas was added to Boston’s 60-man player pool that year. He might have shown something impressive at the alternate training site, as he was promoted to Double-A to start 2021. In 77 games there, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .284/.395/.484, wRC+ of 142. His walk rate climbed to 14.9% and strikeout rate fell to 19.1%. He also left for a while to represent the United States in the Olympics, helping the team win a silver medal. After a promotion to Triple-A, he got into nine games and hit .242/.381/.485, with even strikeout and walk rates of 19%. He was then sent to the Arizona Fall League, where he continued his excellent year, hitting .372/.495/.487 in 21 games, with a walk rate of 17.5% and strikeout rate of 18.6%. He’s now considered one of the best prospects in baseball, ranked #19 by Baseball America, #18 by MLB Pipeline and #17 by FanGraphs.

Casas just turned 22 and isn’t on the 40-man roster yet, but if he continues this sort of production into 2022, he should be up in Boston before long. Defensively, Casas played exclusively at first base last year. He did play some third base in 2019, but in just eight of his 118 A-ball games. That lack of versatility will narrow his path onto the big league roster.

The Red Sox currently have Bobby Dalbec as their first baseman, as he got the majority of playing time there in 2021. It’s tough to know what to make of him at this point, due to his inconsistency. He had a great debut in 2020, playing 23 games in the pandemic-shortened campaign and hitting .263/.359/.600, wRC+ of 152. In 2021, he had a rough first half but seemingly righted the ship as the season went along. From the start of the season through July, he was hitting just .216/260/.399. But for the remainder of the year, he hit .288/.369/.683. He then slumped in the postseason, going hitless and striking out five times in 12 at-bats. He’s seen some limited action at third base, but the Sox should have Rafael Devers slotted in there most of the time. It’s a small sample, but none of DRS, UZR or OAA looked favorably at Dalbec’s work at the hot corner.

Although he’s capable of playing the field at times, J.D. Martinez is likely to see significant time in the designated hitter slot. In 2021, he played 148 games but only made it onto the grass for 38 of them. However, he’s in the final year of his contract with the club, making this a short-term issue. In the long-term, it’s possible that the Sox could utilize both Dalbec and Casas, alternating them between first base and DH, assuming they both hit well enough.

The long-term picture also has to factor in Rafael Devers, however. His defensive numbers at third base are poor and many have speculated that he will have to move to first base eventually. (In 2021, his DRS was -13, UZR was -5.5 and OAA was -13.) He’s only under club control for two more seasons but has been considered an extension candidate for years.

One way to help with this shuffle would be platooning Dalbec and Casas, as Dalbec hits from the right side and Casas the left. Dalbec has a noticeable platoon split in his big league career so far, putting up a .281/.326/.576 line against lefties and a .218/.297/.466 against righties. Casas, between Double-A and Triple-A last year, hit lefties just .219/.289/.301 while mashing righties to the tune of .298/.424/.540.

There are many questions here that will likely need time to be answered. However it shakes out, Casas seems like he has the right combination of power and a batter’s eye to fit into the puzzle one way or another. The Red Sox had a potent offense in 2021 but have since subtracted Kyle Schwarber and Hunter Renfroe. Although they could certainly go after a big move after the lockout, Casas could also provide them with a boost from within.

Looking At The Reds’ Rotation Beyond The Top Three

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If you follow the Reds, you likely know the offseason story by now. It started with Tucker Barnhart being traded as soon as the offseason began. That was followed by this ominous quote from general manager Nick Krall: “Going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” Shortly after that, Nick Castellanos opted out of his contract and entered free agency, and Wade Miley was claimed off waivers by the Cubs.

It’s possible that the departures of Castellanos and Miley mean that the alignment of payroll and resources is now done and that no further salary trimming is required. However, that didn’t stop the rumor mill from grinding up Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle throughout November, as numerous teams were reportedly interested in acquiring them.

Whether they end up finalizing a deal or not, there are still other rotation slots to consider. Castillo, Gray and Mahle have gotten most of the attention in recent months, but the club still needs to think about their fourth and fifth starters. No team gets through a full season with just five starters either, due to injuries and underperformance, meaning the club will need to think about depth as well.

Vladimir Gutierrez should be pencilled into one of the backend spots after making 22 starts in 2021. The righty logged 114 innings with an ERA of 4.74, but strikeout and walk rates of just 17.7% and 9.3%, both of which are worse than league average. There are some reasons for optimism, however, as he’s only 26 and had better results in Triple-A last year. It was only three starts and 17 innings, but his 2.65 ERA was accompanied by a 31.3% strikeout rate, although his 10.4% walk rate was still high.

2021 was an excellent year for Reiver Sanmartin, who started the year in Double-A, getting promoted after logging 18 innings with a 0.50 ERA. In Triple-A, he added another 82 1/3 innings with a 3.94 ERA, 25.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. The southpaw was called up to the big leagues as the season was winding down and made a pair of starts, throwing 11 2/3 innings with a 1.54 ERA. In the Dominican Winter League, he added another 31 innings with an ERA of 1.45. He’ll turn 26 in April.

Jeff Hoffman pitched in 31 games for the Reds in 2021, with 11 of those being starts. In those starts, he put up an ERA of 5.20, with an 18.5% strikeout rate and 14.2% walk rate. He was much better out of the ’pen, throwing 28 innings with an ERA of 3.54, 32.3% strikeout rate and 12.1% walk rate. Unlike Gutierrez and Sanmartin, he’s out of options, meaning he’ll likely be on the big league team either way, but it seems like the bullpen might be a better home for the 29-year-old.

Tony Santillan made four starts for the Reds in 2021, along with 22 relief appearances. He was fine enough in those four starts, as evidenced by his 3.78 ERA. But like Hoffman, he was even better out of the ’pen, putting up an ERA of 2.36, with a 33.3% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. He has one option year remaining and is still young, turning 25 in April, meaning he could be used as Triple-A depth if he’s not needed on the big league club.

Riley O’Brien threw 112 2/3 Triple-A innings last year with an ERA of 4.55. His 24.7% strikeout rate is encouraging but his 11.2% walk rate concerning. He got called up to make one start for the Reds in September, but lasted only an inning and a third. He’ll turn 27 next week but still has options remaining.

Hunter Greene is considered one of the best prospects in baseball, landing in the top 35 on the Top 100 lists of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs. He started 2021 in Double-A and dominated. Over seven starts and 41 innings, he had a 1.98 ERA, 37% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate. After a promotion to Triple-A, he wasn’t quite as dominant but still quite effective. Over 14 starts and 65 1/3 innings, he had a 4.13 ERA, strikeout rate of 28.6% and walk rate of 9.1%. He just turned 22 in August and was added to the 40-man roster in November.

There’s another highly-touted prospect in Nick Lodolo, who also appears on the three aforementioned Top 100 lists. Like Greene, he dominated at Double-A last year, throwing 44 innings over ten starts with an ERA of 1.84, strikeout rate of 39.3% and walk rate of 5.2%. He got promoted to Triple-A and made three starts before a shoulder strain finished his season. He’ll turn 24 this week but isn’t yet on the 40-man.

Further depth options include Graham Ashcraft, who finished 2021 at Double-A, and minor league signees Connor Overton and Ben Lively. Despite that crop of intriguing options, none of them should be considered locks for 2022. Gutierrez and Hoffman are the only ones with more than 45 MLB innings under their belts, and they both come with concerns.

In a vacuum, a team with a rotation consisting of three strong starters and two question marks should be adding and not subtracting, especially if they have designs on competing. The club was connected to Andrew Heaney before he signed with the Dodgers, meaning they have at least considered supplementing this group. However, it’s possible that move would have been combined with one of the oft-rumored trade scenarios of Gray, Castillo or Mahle.

Although the market for free agent starting pitching was largely picked over prior to the lockout, there are still some decent veteran options available, such as Michael Pineda, Tyler Anderson, Drew Smyly and Brett Anderson. A signing of that nature could theoretically add some stability to this highly volatile group without breaking the bank.

The Reds front office seems to be between a rock and a hard place here, as they can’t reasonably consider tearing down the roster at this point. After six straight losing season from 2014 to 2019, which included four straight seasons in the NL Central basement, they’ve recently opened a competitive window. But after two seasons of nudging just beyond the .500 mark, they can’t ask their fans to hold their noses and start the process all over again. However, they don’t seem to have been given the resources necessary to make an impact signing, which might force them to get creative about how they build their rotation for 2022. With that impressive depth, they should be able to navigate it to some degree. But that depth could either be Plan A or Plan B, depending on whether they add or subtract after the lockout is over.

Recalibrating Expectations For Luis Urias

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Luis Urias was a top prospect coming up in the Padres’ system at a time when San Diego had one of the best farm systems in baseball. The Padres avoided overtures to deal Urias for more established talent year after year. After intermittent opportunities in 2018 and 2019, Urias was shipped to Milwaukee in one of the more interesting challenge trades in recent memory: the Padres sent Urias and southpaw Eric Lauer to the Brewers for outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies.

At the time – late November of 2019 – Grisham was at a low point, fresh off ending the Brewers season with an unfortunate bounce on a Juan Soto single that knocked Milwaukee out of the wild card game. Grisham had played admirably in a 51-game stint mostly standing in for the injured Christian Yelich – not at all an easy task, given his legendary status at the time. But the way the season ended definitely left a poor impression about Grisham’s future. Of course, Grisham would go on to win a Gold Glove Award as a centerfielder the next season, reminding us that a single moment in time cannot define a player’s career. The now-25-year-old has grown his well-rounded game enough to place him among the most promising centerfielders in the sport.

A similar lesson might be taken from the first few seasons of Urias’ career. His first season with the Brewers looked a lot like his first few years in San Diego. Following the 2020 season, Urias’ career triple-slash line was a punchless .226/.315/.320, a performance 24 percent below-average. The lack of pop wasn’t shocking, as power was never his calling card. His offensive potential was built on a keen eye at the plate and bat-to-ball skills that routinely produced batting averages of .290+ while in the minor leagues.

Urias, who’s still just 24, turned it around in the 2021 campaign, posting a 111 wRC+ while slashing .249/.345/.445 with 23 home runs. Oddly, it was his power that drove the improvement as his isolated power jumped to .196, an above-average mark that helped sustain a move to the more power-expectant position of third base. If last season’s output represents a new baseline for Urias, our typical understanding of the aging curve suggests that Urias ought to have at least another 5-6 seasons of being a very good baseball player.

If the high-average, high-on-base-percentage player that Urias had been throughout his minors career re-animates for the Brewers in 2022, the Brewers might really have a star player on their hands. They might need one, too, because, somewhat ironically, where once Grisham stood in for an injured Yelich, an improved Urias helped pick up the slack for a lessened Yelich in 2021. With Yelich no longer performing at the superhuman levels of his MVP seasons, and Lorenzo Cain beginning to show his age, the Brewers had to rely on a more egalitarian approach at the plate in 2021. Urias was a big reason why the Brewers were able to weather Yelich’s decline from a 170 wRC+ superhero in 2018-19 to an all-too-mortal 105 wRC+ in 2020-21. Willy Adames carried much of the load after his arrival from Tampa, but even his transformation into a middle-of-the-order bat (135 wRC+) didn’t come close to matching the firepower of Yelich in his heyday.

Manager Craig Counsell mixes-and-matches to maximize the production of an imperfect offensive roster, and he’s done so dating back to Yelich’s MVP years. The Brewers scored 754 runs in 2018 when Yelich won the MVP, 12th-most in the Majors, then 769 runs in 2019 when Yelich finished second, 15th-most in MLB. They scored just 247 runs in the truncated 2020 season when Yelich’s production first dipped, a mark that fell to 26th overall and resulted in a 29-31 season that barely qualified them for an expanded playoffs. Last season, they made the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season while scoring 738 runs, which landed them back at 12th overall in the Majors. In other words, the Brewers offense was about as good as it’s ever been with Yelich on the roster, despite Yelich himself producing barely better than average.

The Brewers under Counsell and GM David Stearns have always been a pitching-first organization, and that’s likely to continue in 2022 behind a rotation that’s among the most well-rounded in all of baseball. Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta boast mind-bending pure stuff, but they’re buttressed by a pair of steady-eddies in Adrian Houser and Lauer, Urias’ traveling mate from San Diego. When healthy, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Brent Suter make up the core of a formidable bullpen, not to mention Aaron Ashby, the hard-throwing, bespectacled southpaw who appears to be the next big arm to establish himself on Counsell’s staff.

Pitching dominance, however, now more than ever, is prone to whims of injury and year-to-year variance. Less length from starters means spreading the innings load to more pitchers than in days’ past, and that means spreading the potential for variance around as well. There are plusses and minuses to meting out that responsibility to so many arms. The Brewers pitching staff has ranked among the game’s best by fWAR the past two seasons, but nothing is guaranteed on the hill. The offense will need to carry their own water.

There are paths to Milwaukee scoring enough runs to cover even an unforeseen letdown from the pitching staff, but as of right now, they’re gambles. Obviously, a bounceback season from Yelich would do wonders. A rejuvenated Cain in his age-36 season would be amazing, however unlikely. Even another season from Adames at his Milwaukee potency would register as a pleasant surprise.

The list goes on. They need Keston Hiura to find the form that made him a top prospect bat. They need Hunter Renfroe and Tyrone Taylor to make up the production left behind by the departed Avisail Garcia. They need Rowdy Tellez to maintain his role as a power force, though year-to-year consistency has eluded the southpaw slugger in the past.

Urias, now stationed at the hot corner, might be the safest best of them all. Heading into last season, the sheen had worn off of Urias, and the prospect of his realizing the potential that was once heaped upon his 5’9″ frame was as unlikely as any of Milwaukee’s annual offensive gambits, and yet here we are. The Brewers not only need Urias to be a star, but it’s not wholly unfair to expect it.

Padres Top Prospect Healthy Enough For Baseball Activities

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Padres top prospect CJ Abrams is healthy enough to return to full baseball activities, per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). Abrams had been dealing with a shoulder issue, but it does not appear as if the injury will be the cause of a delayed season start for Abrams. The Padres’ top-ranked prospect fractured his tibia and tore his mcl in a collision at second base that ended his 2021 season after just 42 games in Double-A. Despite the injury, Abrams remains one of MiLB’s most intriguing young talents, landing as the ninth-ranked prospect in the game per Baseball America, 11th-ranked overall by Baseball Prospectus, and currently sixth-ranked by MLB.com.

Before the injury, Abrams was impressive as a 20-year-old playing above his station in a league where players were roughly four years his elder on average. Regardless, he slashed .296/.363/.420 over 183 plate appearances prior to the injury, good for a 112 wRC+. At the dish, Abrams put forth a fairly well-rounded game with an 8.2 percent walk rate, 19.7 percent strikeout rate, and .123 ISO while also stealing 13 bases in 15 opportunities. Power isn’t his primary skillset, but Abrams showed enough pop at his age to suggest there’s more growth to come in that department.

The question for Abrams right now, beyond his return to health, is where the Padres hope to station him in the field. He has remained a shortstop, but a certain Fernando Tatis Jr. has aims on holding that spot long-term. Of course, the Padres experimented moving Tatis around the diamond in 2021, driven at least publicly by a desire to keep him from re-injuring his shoulder. Abrams played a little second base in Double-A, and maybe that’s where he ultimately ends up in order to secure a spot on the Major League roster. The first hurdle will be proving himself healthy, and if the season eventually gets underway, he’ll either be back in Double-A for a time or jumped ahead to Triple-A. Either way, the Padres will hope to see Abrams somewhere on the diamond in Petco Park before the end of the 2023 season, if not sooner.

The Tigers’ Forgotten Pitching Prospect

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The Tigers are one of the teams seen to be on the rise heading into 2022, in no small part because of a cavalcade of promising rotation arms that have begun to establish themselves in the big league rotation. Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal are three of the most impactful variables that might make the difference for Detroit in 2022. The pedigree of these three are well known, and their arrival in the Majors long-anticipated. Manning was the ninth overall selection of the 2016 draft, and Mize followed two years later going first overall. Skubal was the unheralded of the three, a former ninth round pick who rose to prospect prominence prior to the 2020 season.

But in the year between the Manning and Mize selections, the Tigers spent another first-round pick on a college righty whose road to the Majors took on a more circuitous route. After leading the University of Florida to a National Championship, Alex Faedo went 18th overall to the Tigers in the 2017 draft, signing for a $3.5MM bonus, barely less than it took to sign Manning the year prior. Faedo was a high character right-hander who looked like a future rotation piece based on the strength of his slider.

The gaudy strikeout numbers that Faedo posted in college didn’t translate to pro ball, however, and after making an appearance on top-100 prospect lists prior to the start of his professional career, Faedo soon after fell from the national spotlight. His fastball lost a tick or two of velocity, his change-up never fully developed, and the slider lost just enough effectiveness to dim his prospect star. He remained among Detroit’s better looking prospects, however, with Baseball Prospectus pegging him as the 10th, 6th, and 11th-ranked prospect in the Tigers’ system prior to the 2019, 2020, and 2021 seasons, respectively.

He finished the 2019 season in Double-A having recaptured some of the swing-and-miss that had eluded him in his first couple of seasons on the farm. He made 22 starts for the Erie SeaWolves that year, posting a 3.90 ERA in 22 starts covering 115 1/3 innings with a career-best 28.3 percent strikeout rate. He was expected to compete for a rotation spot at some point in 2020 despite not having tossed an inning in Triple-A, but a bout of COVID-19 delayed his season, and then forearm soreness led to Tommy John surgery, which ended it. Faedo hasn’t pitched since that 2019 campaign, but he’s on his way back. Faedo started throwing bullpens in his recover from Tommy John on January 11th, which should put him on track for game action sometime in March, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter).

The lost time means the Florida native still hasn’t pitched above Double-A, and at 26  years old now, his days as a top prospect are behind him. But expect the Tigers to push him once he’s proven healthy. If he can get himself back up to speed, Faedo could absolutely become a factor somewhere on the roster for the Tigers.

Even before the injury, Faedo had yet to establish a third pitch, so it could be that he eventually makes his bones out of the bullpen. A fastball that reached 95 mph as a starter could play up out of the bullpen, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first former prospect with a slider-forward arsenal to become an impact bullpen arm. Perhaps that’s not the result the Tigers or Faedo hoped for when he was a first round pick back in 2017, but in 2022, the Tigers are going to need some farmhands to pop in unexpected places in order to make a real push for contention. If Faedo can earn his keep on the 26-man roster at some point in 2022, both team and player ought to be encouraged. That’s still a long ways off, but with his first bullpen sessions in the rearview, consider the first hurdle crossed.

Minor League Notes: Space Cowboys, Hsin-Chieh Lin

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Let’s check in on the latest from the minor league landscape…

  • The Sugar Land Skeeters have completed their rebrand. The Astros’ Triple-A affiliate is now the Sugar Land Space Cowboys, with brand new duds and a new logo to boot. The Skeeters had played in the independent league from 2012 until 2019, with last season being their first season as an affiliated ballclub. In terms of the re-brand, the Space Cowboys struck a chord alluding to both their Texas roots and Houston’s NASA connection. “We really wanted an identity that reflected a connection to the Astros but stood out as unique and was aligned with the values of Sugar Land: vibrant, thriving, aggressive and a very family-oriented community that’s clearly focused on investing in the future,” said Anita Sehgal, SVP, marketing and communications at the Astros, per MLB.com’s Tyler Maun.
  • Phillies prospect Hsin-Chieh Lin plans to enter the 2022 draft for the Chinese Professional Baseball League, per the CPBL Stats Twitter account. Lin has pitched in the Phillies farm system since 2018. The right-hander pitched most of 2021 with Single-A Clearwater, tossing 20 innings with a 7.20ERA over four starts and four relief appearances. Lin was not considered to be a top prospect, and given that he is a native of Taiwan, it’s easy to understand a desire to make a run at the CPBL.

Mets Not Done Upgrading Rotation

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When roster transactions once again fall within the purview of professional baseball teams, the Mets will be on the lookout for another starting pitcher to add to their already-formidable rotation, per Andy Martino of SNY.TV.

Martino specifies that the Mets will absolutely be willing to go the trade route to make that pickup. That certainly tracks with what’s available on the open market. Most of the top free agent hurlers have already signed, and while there are certainly still some viable names on the market – Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Carlos Rodon, to name a few – but the most intriguing long-term options can be found in the trade network.

For starters, the Reds and A’s are two of the teams that seem most willing to deal their current rotation arms. We know Oakland to be in play, and they have lots of offer with Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Chris Bassitt each capable of contributing first-division innings for a contender. If he’s available, Luis Castillo might be the most intriguing name of all, though it remains unclear exactly how available the Reds have made their presumptive ace. Sonny Gray should also be appealing after a 2.4 fWAR season with the Reds in 2021. Gray, like Castillo, remains under team control for two more seasons. Chris Paddack of the Padres could be an interesting arm to inquire after as well. It’s worth noting, of course, that none of these arms figure to come cheap.

The Mets have already added legend Max Scherzer to the rotation, but practically speaking, the upgrade over Marcus Stroman might not prove to be the skeleton key that Mets’ fans hope. It ought to open some doors, for sure, and that’s not to say the upgrade will “come out in the wash,” exactly, but it might not be enough to turn the Mets into instant contenders. Scherzer put up 5.4 fWAR over 179 1/3 innings last year, compared to 3.4 fWAR over 179 innings from Stroman, but there’s at least some age and injury risk for Scherzer, who finished 2021 with a tired arm.

Beyond losing Stroman, the Mets also lost Rich Hill, who contributing a competent 63 1/3 innings with a 3.84 ERA, and Noah Syndergaard, who, despite his name recognition, did not factor into the Mets’ 2021 season in a significant way. Otherwise, they’re starting staff remains intact. Is that a great sign? Mets started ranked 13th in fWAR, 8th in ERA, and 10th in FIP. That’s a good staff, but it also wasn’t enough to get the Mets to the playoffs.

Presuming good health, the Mets have a very strong cohort of veteran starters between Scherzer, 37,  Jacob deGrom, 33, Carlos Carrasco, 35 in March, and Taijuan Walker, 30. Scherzer aside, however, that group has hardly been the most reliable foursome from a health perspective, and they don’t exactly have youth on their side. Carrasco hasn’t made more than 12 starts in a season since 2018, Walker was healthy in 2021 for the first time since 2017, and deGrom made just 15 starts last season. Scherzer has been a workhorse, but Father Time remains undefeated.

Beyond those fours, Tylor Megill took hold of a rotation spot last season with 18 starts and a 4.52 ERA/4.69 FIP across 89 2/3 innings. Those numbers are likely to give the 25-year-old the inside track on a rotation job, but they won’t be enough to guarantee one. Trevor Williams, Sean Reid-Foley, David Peterson, and Jordan Yamamoto make up their depth group at present. Williams has the most rotation experience of the four, but he pitched better out of the bullpen after coming to New York from Chicago, and the Mets could see themselves fit to continue him in that role. On the whole, this group has spent significant time in big league rotations in the aggregate, but not so much so that it would be surprising to see the Mets seek out another arm.

The Mets made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason in signing Scherzer, but their work is far from done. If Mad Max and deGrom make 25-30 starts a piece, the Metropolitans will feel pretty good about their ability to stay in the race. That’s a better Plan A than most teams can muster. But it’s been a long time since Plan A has come to fruition for the New York Mets.

Padres Discussed Chris Paddack As Part Of Trade Deadline Talks With Nationals

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Before the Dodgers acquired Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals at the trade deadline, the Padres were known to also be in the hunt for both players, with San Diego reportedly coming particularly close to landing Scherzer before the Nats pivoted towards the Dodgers’ offer.  Top catching prospect Luis Campusano was discussed as part of the Padres’ negotiations with Washington, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that the Padres also “dangled” Chris Paddack as part of the Scherzer talks.

Paddack (who just turned 26 earlier this month) tossed 108 1/3 innings last season, as he was limited by three separate trips to the injured list due to COVID-19, an oblique strain, and then a slight UCL sprain that ended his season in mid-September.  The timing of that oblique strain could’ve played a role in Paddack’s deadline fate, as he pitched on July 27 but was then placed on the IL on July 31, the day after the deadline — the Padres might have taken Paddack off the table in trade talks knowing that he was about to be sidelined with an injury.

After posting a solid 3.74 ERA over 174 innings in 2019-20, Paddack took a step backwards in 2021, and it’s fair to guess that his injuries likely played some role in his lesser numbers.  Plus, Paddack’s 5.07 ERA was surely impacted by a very low 60.7% strand rate, and his 4.05 SIERA paints a more favorable impression of last season’s performance.

That said, Paddack’s Statcast metrics were decidedly subpar aside from his excellent walk rate, and his hard-contact and strikeout rates were also both troublesome in 2020.  Between these numbers and his injuries, it still isn’t quite clear after parts of three MLB seasons if Paddack can be a solid contributor to a rotation, or if he might ultimately be a fringe fifth starter or depth arm.

For this reason, San Diego could opt to keep Paddack until they know exactly what they have in a hard-throwing, controllable (through 2024) starting pitcher.  While Paddack might have been available as part of a Scherzer trade package, that doesn’t necessarily mean the right-hander would be available for just anything now, plus other teams would surely gauge Paddack a little differently given his post-deadline injury woes.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed earlier this week, the Padres technically have a rather a large surplus of rotation candidates if everyone is healthy, so Paddack or another arm could possibly be available in trade talks as San Diego looks to make other roster upgrades after the lockout.  On the other hand, “if everyone is healthy” is a big if for a Padres team that had so many pitchers sidelined with injuries last season.

Both Lin and Adams noted that the Padres might simply want to hang onto all their rotation depth until they know who or who isn’t healthy.  Paddack has also shown a degree of success at the MLB level already, so the Friars could prefer to keep such a big league-ready arm around as a rotation candidate, and instead look to move a pitcher who has little or no Major League experience.

Turning back to the deadline talks, it’s hard to compare offers since we don’t know the full scope of what exactly the Padres offered the Nationals for Scherzer and/or Turner.  The combo of Paddack and Campusano was certainly enough to get the ball rolling on talks, but obviously more was required to actually get Washington to part ways with either of its stars.  The Nats ended up accepting a four-player package (Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray and prospects Gerardo Carrillo and Donovan Casey) from L.A. for both Scherzer and Turner, headlined by big league-ready youngsters in Ruiz and Gray.

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