Archives for January 2022

While news of minor league deals, international signings, and coaching hires continue to trickle in, much of the baseball fandom has stayed engaged thanks to one thing: speculation. For weeks, fans and writers have used what information they can gather during MLB’s lockout to predict what the next CBA will look like, which free agents will sign where, and who is going to draw the most trade buzz. With little in the way of breaking news many of us have shifted gears towards thinking about the future, though now seems as optimal a time as any to reflect on the past.

Five years ago in December 2016, the baseball hot stove was cranked all the way up. Outside of one day in the beginning of the month, it’s easy to hail 2016’s closing month as more consistently action-packed with baseball news than the December we just experienced. In fact, December of 2016 was so rife with moves that MLBTR crafted a poll, titled “Dubious December Decisions“, asking readers which recent move they found to be the most questionable.

Several contentious baseball moves were made five Decembers ago, but for the poll’s sake we zeroed in on three: The Nationals’ trade for Adam Eaton, in which they surrendered then-prospects Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning; the Rockies’ decision to sign outfielder/shortstop Ian Desmond to a 5-year $70MM deal and play him at first base, forfeiting the 11th overall pick in the amateur draft; and the Yankees’ decision to sign Aroldis Chapman to a record 5-year, $86MM deal.

Nearly 15,000 people voted in this 2016 poll and ranked the moves as follows, with higher vote percentages representing the most skepticism:

• Adam Eaton to Nationals (50%)
• Ian Desmond to Rockies (32.2%)
• Aroldis Chapman to Yankees (13.1%)
• Other (3.6%)

The Eaton deal proved far and away the most head-scratching by voters, who questioned why the Nationals would surrender some of their best prospects for a right fielder when a certain Bryce Harper already had the position covered.  Advocates of the deal on the Nationals side were quick to point out that Giolito, the headlining prospect of the deal, didn’t look very promising in his first Major League action during the 2016 season. Eaton, meanwhile, was signed to an affordable contract through the 2021 season, averaged a 119 OPS+ and 5.3 bWAR in the three seasons prior to the deal, and could play center field until there was a vacancy in right field (hint: there was).

Early returns for the Nationals side of the deal didn’t seem as terrible as many feared. Eaton struggled to stay healthy, but was productive offensively, slashing .288/.377/.425 (109 OPS+) in his first three seasons in the NL. Giolito went on to have his worst minor league season in 2017 and gave up the most earned runs of any pitcher in 2018. Lopez generally struggled across those three years out of the White Sox rotation, outside of a decent 2018 showing, while Dunning pitched well, albeit exclusively in the minor leagues.

The past couple of years have quite handily tipped the trade in Chicago’s favor however. The right-handed Giolito turned a sharp corner entering the 2019 season, and has now garnered Cy Young consideration every year since his ’19 emergence. Lopez has had trouble with consistency, but is coming off a season that saw him pitch out of the bullpen at times to post a cumulative 3.43 ERA. Dunning, meanwhile, was the key piece in the trade that sent Lance Lynn from Texas to Chicago.

Eaton saw his production crater in 2020 and ultimately had his 2021 option bought out by the Nationals. Adding some insult to injury, Eaton ended up signing with the White Sox as their regular right fielder before last season. Eaton’s 2021 Chicago tenure didn’t last long, as he managed 58 games before being designated for assignment. He latched on with the Angels for a spell but couldn’t quite reignite the abilities that made him such a trade commodity back in 2016. He’s now in a state of limbo while he mulls retirement.

While the young pieces surrendered in the Eaton trade make that deal seem the most regrettable in hindsight, a win-now Nationals club benefitted from Eaton when they needed him most. In the 2019 World Series that the team would go on to win, Eaton slashed an incredibly useful .320/.433/.560 with two home runs and a steal for good measure. Neither the Rockies or Yankees have taken home a World Series trophy in the past five years, though it’s hard to attribute their 2016 deals as the reason for that common distinction.

Unlike the Eaton deal, the Desmond deal largely proved a sunk cost from the very beginning. In his first year in Colorado, Desmond was unable to match his All-Star form in Texas, slashing .274/.326/.375 while learning a new position. Desmond produced a 20-20 season in 2018, but his accompanying OPS+ of 83 left a lot to be desired from a first baseman in Coors Field. Desmond shifted to the outfield full time in 2019 and again chipped in 20 homers, though his offensive and defensive contributions were consistently regarded below average.

Desmond has since opted out of the two most recent seasons, owing to pandemic conditions and a desire to be with his family. The Rockies bought out an option on Desmond’s contract in November, sending him to free agency and potentially spelling an end to the respected veteran’s Major League career.

While the Desmond contract was a misstep for the Colorado front office, it can be argued that they weren’t “$14MM and a better first baseman” away from being championship contenders at any point during Desmond’s tenure. The front office gambled on an All Star’s upside and it didn’t quite pan out, only costing money— mostly.

The Rockies aren’t entirely off the hook for this deal yet considering they surrendered a high draft pick to dream on Desmond. Few can be sure who the Rockies would have selected with the 11th overall pick in 2017, of course, or how the player would have developed in Colorado’s farm system. Still, it may sting Rockies fans to know that All-Star Marlins pitcher Trevor Rogers was taken two picks after the sacrificed pick, at 13th overall. The rest of the first round has yet to produce any All-Stars, though it does feature a number of highly regarded prospects, including touted Royals first base prospect Nick Pratto.

The Yankees portion of the poll is much more cut and dry review-wise than the first two deals. Fans didn’t think the Yankees would regret this deal as much as the other clubs and they were proven correct.

Chapman has been as advertised, flashing erratic control in his first three seasons in pinstripes but combining it with lights out stuff. The flame-throwing closer comes with baggage and has a habit of making things interesting, but he’s been so effective that the Yankees reached a new agreement with Chapman back in 2019, keeping him in the fold through the 2022 season. Since signing that contract extension, Chapman has pitched to a 3.31 ERA with an elite 41.3% strikeout rate that largely makes up for an unenviable 14.6% walk rate. Even if Chapman struggles next season, it’s hard to say New York hasn’t already come out ahead on their partnership with the closer.

All that said, our readers proved that informed speculation can age quite well. Flags will fly forever in D.C., but it’s surely a tough pill for a retooling Nats club to swallow now that every one of their traded prospects has proved valuable elsewhere. But what do you think? Do you feel like the Rockies’ deal should have garnered the distinction of being the most questionable? After all, even if the Nationals overpaid to acquire Eaton, one could argue it was a more logical decision than signing a non-first baseman as a first baseman. Or perhaps you have another deal from December ’16 that you feel deserves more head-shaking and finger-wagging. Be sure to let us know in the comments!