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Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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The 2022 A’s were as bad as expected after trading away Matt Olson, Chris Bassitt, Matt Chapman and Sean Manaea last offseason and declining to add any real upgrades in the free-agent market. The fire sale continued into the summer, as Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino were traded, while Elvis Andrus and Stephen Piscotty were simply released. Expect more turnover this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

The A’s head into the offseason without a single dollar committed to the 2023 payroll. Their fire sale, which dates back to last winter, has stripped the payroll down to the bare minimum. They’ll have five arbitration-eligible players (plus another pair of potential Super Two players) on whom they need to decide, but it’s a pretty straightforward bunch. Deolis Guerra missed the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery and figures to be non-tendered. Tony Kemp is hitting .233/.307/.333 as of this writing and only has one year of club control left. They could tender him simply to have some semblance of roster continuity and give the fans at least one more name they can recognize, but he’s due a raise on this season’s $2.25MM salary and the A’s might want to give those at-bats to younger players.

Each of Ramon Laureano, Sean Murphy and Paul Blackburn will be tendered contracts, though that doesn’t necessarily guarantee a return to the roster next season. In the case of Laureano and Blackburn, it at least appears likely they’ll be back. Laureano was an in-demand trade chip last offseason and drew interest this summer, too, but he’s controllable for another three seasons and the A’s probably feel they’d be selling low if they moved him on the heels of a .211/.287/.376 batting line.

Laureano missed the first month of the season serving out the final portion of an 80-game PED suspension and looks like he’ll end the year on the injured list owing to a hamstring strain. His stock is probably as low as it’s been since the A’s acquired him in what looked like a forgettable, minor trade with the division-rival Astros. But, from 2018-21, Laureano batted .263/.335/.485 with 49 homers, 34 steals, plus baserunning value and strong glovework (plus a penchant for highlight-reel grabs).

A good first half in 2023 might be all it takes to boost Laureano from a buy-low candidate to a premium outfielder with (as of next summer) two-plus seasons of club control remaining. Unless a team is willing to pay for the 2018-21 version of him right now, it’s most sensible to just hold.

It’s a relatively similar tale with Blackburn, who ascended from DFA fodder that went unclaimed on waivers early in the 2021 season to a 2022 All-Star. It’s fair to be cynical and point out that, yes, someone from the Athletics needed to be named to the team, but Blackburn was far more than a token All-Star. His end-of-season numbers don’t reflect that, though that’s due to an injury.

Through his first 16 starts of the season, Blackburn was outstanding. He pitched to a 2.90 ERA in that time, offsetting a pedestrian 17.7% strikeout rate with an excellent 5.9% walk rate and a hearty 50.5% grounder rate. Blackburn’s 87.2 mph average exit velocity in that time was strong, and he allowed all of seven “barreled” balls through those first 16 starts (3.2%). Virtually no one was squaring the ball up against him, he wasn’t walking many hitters, and he was erasing plenty of traffic on the bases with timely double-play grounders.

Things went awry for Blackburn beginning in mid-July, when he began experiencing discomfort in his pitching hand. He tried to pitch through pain for the next month, serving up 25 runs in 24 1/3 innings before eventually succumbing to the injured list. He was diagnosed with a torn tendon sheath in his right middle finger and placed in a splint for up to eight weeks. Suffice it to say, to trade Blackburn right now would be selling low. Like Laureano, he’s controlled another three seasons, so if he starts strong in 2023 he could quickly build up trade value.

If there’s one glaring trade candidate on the Oakland roster right now, it’s Murphy, who’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and should see his salary jump from $725K to more than $3MM. Obviously that’s not a large sum, but the A’s, even more so than usual over the past year, have endeavored to tear the payroll down to its lowest possible levels.

Beyond the salary ramifications, Murphy’s value is arguably at its apex — and the A’s have an in-house option whom they hope can emerge as a similarly productive backstop: top prospect Shea Langeliers, acquired from the Braves as one of the centerpieces to March’s Olson trade. The presence of Langeliers alone certainly doesn’t push Murphy out the door — Langeliers has batted just .220/.242/.398 in his first 124 MLB plate appearances, after all — but Murphy will draw widespread interest on the heels of a breakout season.

Because of his elite defensive skills and above-average power, the 27-year-old Murphy was already viewed as a quality player even after turning in a tepid .216/.306/.405 slash in 2021. This year, he’s boosted that stat line to a much more palatable .249/.331/.430, and even that slash undersells just how strong of a finish he’s putting together. Dating back to early June, Murphy has mashed at a .278/.362/.465 clip with 13 homers, 23 doubles, a triple, a 9.4% walk rate and just a 16.3% strikeout rate in 385 plate appearances. That’s standout production from any hitter but especially from a catcher with above-average framing marks, a strong 31% caught-stealing rate and perennially positive marks in Defensive Runs Saved.

The Rays, Guardians, Cubs, Marlins, Tigers, Red Sox, Twins and several others teams could plausibly look into Murphy this winter. There are only seven teams that saw their catchers combine for offensive production that was better than that of a league-average hitter in 2022, and one of them was the A’s, so there’ll be no shortage of potential trade partners. As things stand, Murphy looks like the primary offseason trade chip who could be sold at peak value. Teams are sometimes reluctant to trade for a new starting catcher midseason and have him learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly — hence, to an extent, Willson Contreras staying put this year — so trading Murphy over the next six months could be easier than marketing him next summer.

Beyond that group, the Oakland roadmap is more or less wide open. It’s not necessarily an enviable spot, but aside from Murphy at catcher and Laureano in one of the three outfield spots, the A’s are lacking in established, everyday players. Slugger Seth Brown figures to be a regular, but he’s capable of playing first base, corner outfield or slotting in at designated hitter, giving the front office some flexibility. Cristian Pache, acquired alongside Langeliers in the Olson trade with Atlanta, will be out of minor league options in 2023, so he’ll likely be penciled into center field despite hitting just .248/.298/.349 in Triple-A and .160/.211/.225 in the Majors. Otherwise, there are seemingly no guarantees of playing time.

Nick Allen has played excellent defense at shortstop but hasn’t hit enough to firmly seize the spot.  Kevin Smith, acquired for Chapman, hasn’t hit much in the Majors or in Triple-A and will likely get another look at third base or second base next year — but he has options remaining and could begin the year in Triple-A. Dermis Garcia has shown some pop at first base but has also fanned 46 times in 108 plate appearances. I already touched on Langeliers’ status. There’s just very little certainty throughout the roster.

As such, even though they’re not likely to attract (or to be willing to spend on) marquee free agents, the A’s can offer something many contending clubs cannot: opportunity. Hitters searching for a rebound might not relish playing half their games in the cavernous Coliseum the same way a pitcher might, but the promise of an earnest shot at 500-600 plate appearances isn’t something every team can offer to players coming off down years.

The A’s can absolutely do that, and with basically nothing committed to next year’s payroll, there’s every reason to do so. Former stars and top prospects who’ve seen their stock drop could see some appeal in the playing time available in Oakland, whether that’s Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo, Didi Gregorius or Wil Myers. Oakland is going to need someone to fill out the lineup, and they’re not going to be the top choice for in-demand free agents coming off strong seasons.

The A’s would also make a nice soft landing spot for any notable names who are non-tendered; paying up for a year of someone like Cody Bellinger, if he’s cut loose by the Dodgers, brings a recognizable name and some major upside come deadline season. Only time will tell whether the A’s spend on a few larger names or spread out any available resources among a larger number of low-cost options. Either route is plausible, but since they can’t expect to contend next season anyhow, the focus ought to be on acquiring short-term players who have the chance to net the most trade deadline value (or perhaps non-tendered players with multiple years of club control remaining).

One target that seems like a given, however, is a veteran catcher. If the A’s trade Murphy, they’ll want someone with some experience to work alongside Langeliers. If Murphy stays put, the best thing for Langeliers will be to play everyday in Triple-A, necessitating some type of backup addition. Austin Hedges, Omar Narvaez, Roberto Perez, Kevin Plawecki and Tucker Barnhart are among the available names.

Over on the pitching staff, things are a bit more solid — but not by much. Cole Irvin could reach arbitration as a Super Two player, but even then he’d have another four years of team control remaining. Clubs may still come calling, and the A’s might even find an offer to their liking, but it’s rare to see players with this much team control remaining actually change hands. Besides, Irvin is limping to the finish line (6.97 ERA over his past nine starts) and, with a 4.11 ERA in 175 innings overall, looks more like an innings-eating fourth starter than anything else. Some teams will need that, but the free-agent market offers comparable arms who won’t cost minor league talent. A deal could be hard to piece together here, particularly since the A’s also badly need stable innings of this nature.

Irvin and Blackburn, then, should take two rotation spots. The A’s can offer a guaranteed rotation spot and a spacious home park to any number of rebound hopefuls in free agency — Matthew Boyd, Dallas Keuchel, Chad Kuhl, Michael Pineda, Joe Ross, Vince Velasquez among them — and there are plenty of in-house options for the final spots. Adrian Martinez, James Kaprielian, Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Zach Logue, Adam Oller and Daulton Jefferies will be in the rotation mix next spring. Kaprielian is out of minor league options and has pitched well of late (3.43 ERA since July 1), so he’s a favorite for a role either in the rotation or bullpen next year.

Speaking of the ’pen, the Athletics should have innings — and perhaps even saves — to offer free agents in that regard as well. A.J. Puk, Domingo Acevedo, Zach Jackson, Dany Jimenez and Sam Moll have all had nice years (albeit some of them with troubling command issues), but there’s no set closer in Mark Kotsay’s group. Dangling that role to lure a high-profile name like Ken Giles, Tommy Kahnle, Corey Knebel or even Craig Kimbrel could make for a compelling selling point.

It’s not yet clear just how high the A’s will be willing to take their payroll. They opened the 2022 season with a paltry $48MM in commitments and would need to do a fair bit of work just to get back to that point. Given the huge gap between their projected commitments and even 2022’s stripped-down Opening Day payroll total, they should have plenty of room to get creative; the oft-proposed but seldom-implemented strategy of acquiring prospects by absorbing a bad contract does make some sense for Oakland, even if we’re not accustomed to the idea of them providing salary relief to another team.

We’ve seen the Red Sox (acquiring Jackie Bradley Jr. and Adam Ottavino over the past two offseasons) and the Giants back in 2018 (Zack Cozart) take on underwater contracts in trades that saw the Brewers, Yankees and Angels all surrender mid-range prospects to shed those commitments. With few established big league talents left to sell for prospects at this point and a completely blank payroll slate, the A’s could consider that tactic.

Obviously, Oakland isn’t going to absorb the $59MM still remaining on Patrick Corbin’s deal with the Nats. The A’s are probably in no hurry to eat the remaining $30.5MM the Yankees owe to Aaron Hicks, either. Smaller-scale commitments to (relatively) young players, however, could make some sense. Scott Kingery, for instance, is clearly no longer in the Phillies’ plans and has just a year $9MM to go on his contract. The Phillies, a luxury-tax payor, might have extra incentive to shed even his contract’s $4MM AAV from the books as they plan for the 2023 campaign.

That’s just one speculative example, to be clear, and there’s no indication yet that Oakland’s ever-frugal ownership group would green-light the addition of player salary to bolster the middle tiers of the farm system. Still, it’d be a sensible approach given the current payroll and state of the rebuild.

I’ve written a lot of these offseason outlooks at MLBTR over the years, but it’s hard to recall a parallel with the current state of the A’s: a team with no guaranteed money on the following year’s books, a tiny arbitration class (that could be further depleted by trades/non-tenders), a farm system that still ranks in the bottom half to bottom third of the league, and almost nothing on the roster in terms of established, cost-controlled players. The A’s could go in countless directions this winter as they look to fill this blank canvas, but two things seem clear: they probably won’t spend much money along the way, and this rebuild is going to take some time.

Mets To Promote Francisco Alvarez

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The Mets will promote catching prospect Francisco Álvarez in advance of the team’s pivotal weekend series against the Braves, reports Daniel Álvarez Montes of El ExtraBase (Twitter link). The 20-year-old is one of the sport’s best minor league talents, checking in sixth on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospects list.

It’ll be the first major league call for Álvarez, who entered the professional ranks as an amateur signee out of Venezuela. One of the better prospects in the 2018-19 international signing period, the 5’10” backstop has only raised his stock in pro ball. He hit very well in rookie ball during his first minor league season, but he lost a year of game action with the cancelation of the minors in 2020. Álvarez opened the ’21 campaign in Low-A but quickly proved himself far too advanced for the level, and he spent most of the year in High-A.

Álvarez hit .247/.351/.538 with 22 home runs in 84 games at that level, astonishing production for a 19-year-0ld catcher. It vaulted him near the top of prospect lists entering this season, with Álvarez cracking the preseason top 15 at Baseball America, The Athletic, ESPN and FanGraphs. He opened the year at Double-A Binghamton and connected on another 18 round-trippers in 67 games. His overall .277/.368/.553 line across 296 plate appearances earned him a bump to Triple-A Syracuse in early July.

The minors’ top level has given Álvarez his toughest challenge to date, but he’s still generally held his own. Over 199 plate appearances there, he carries a .234/.382/.443 slash with another nine homers. He’s striking out at a career-worst 26.1% clip, contributing to the mediocre batting average, but the rest of his profile has remained strong. Álvarez has walked in a stellar 17.1% of his trips to the plate there, and he’s collected six doubles in addition to the longballs.

Between the two upper levels, Álvarez owns a .260/.374/.511 line with 27 homers and 22 doubles over 495 plate appearances this season. That excellent showing has been enough to convince the Mets front office he can hold his own against big league arms, even at his age. Installing him into a pennant race and directly in advance of the Mets’ biggest regular season series of the year is a strong show of faith, but Álvarez has performed well at every rung on the ladder thus far.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the club is likely to break him as a right-handed option at designated hitter. The Mets acquired Darin Ruf from the Giants at the trade deadline in hopes he could fill that role, but that acquisition hasn’t yet panned out. Ruf has a putrid .152/.216/.197 line in 29 games as a Met. He hit a serviceable .216/.328/.373 in 314 plate appearances before the trade, but his struggles since landing in Queens have led to some questions about how manager Buck Showalter will use the DH role. Fellow deadline acquisition Daniel Vogelbach has excelled since coming over from the Pirates and will continue to pick up the playing time against right-handed pitching. Álvarez gives Showalter an alternative to the struggling Ruf for at-bats against left-handers.

It doesn’t seem likely he’ll step directly in as the primary catcher, however. The Mets have veteran James McCann as the starter, with Tomás Nido backing him up. McCann is hitting only .190/.256/.264 in 180 plate appearances, his second straight down year offensively. The veteran has rated as a slightly above-average defender, and he’s drawn strong reviews for his work with the pitching staff. Sending Álvarez behind the plate for the final few games of the season is more than the front office and coaching staff appears to be comfortable with, particularly given McCann’s longstanding familiarity with the staff.

Scouting reports on Álvarez have long suggested he’s more of a bat-first catcher. That’s largely a testament to his offensive potential, but evaluators have expressed some concern about his defense. BA’s scouting report notes that he’s had some inconsistency as a pitch framer and ball blocker. The outlet also suggests that Álvarez’s plus raw arm strength can play down because of some flaws in his throwing mechanics.

There’s general optimism that Álvarez can eventually iron out those concerns and become at least a competent defender. That’s more of a long-term question, though. The immediate pressing issue for the Mets is whether he can make an impact offensively. New York enters the weekend set holding a one-game advantage over Atlanta. New York would also hold the tiebreaker over the Braves if they can take even one of the three contests, so they’d head into next week at the top of the division unless they get swept. Securing their first NL East title since 2015 would come with a corresponding first-round bye, making these final six contests crucial.

Álvarez’s promotion for such important regular season games raises the possibility he’ll also crack the postseason roster. Only players on a team’s 40-man roster by September 1 are automatically eligible to partake in the playoffs. However, players in an organization but not on the 40-man by September 1 can be added to a playoff roster in place of someone on the injured list via petition to the commissioner’s office. That situation is fairly common every postseason, so the Mets shouldn’t have much issue getting Álvarez onto the playoff roster if they desire.

New York will have to add him to their 40-man roster before tomorrow evening’s game. Their roster is currently full, so they’ll need to make a corresponding transaction. He’d have been added to the 40-man after the season anyhow to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, so there’s little harm in bringing him up a few weeks early. Álvarez will collect his first few days of major league service but won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2028 season at the earliest. His fastest path to arbitration-eligibility is after the 2025 campaign, and it’s certainly possible he’ll spend more time in the minors polishing up his defense and at least delaying his free agency trajectory.

In the meantime, Mets fans will get their first glimpse at a player they hope to be a key piece of the franchise’s future. McCann is under contract for two more seasons, due $12.15MM annually through 2024. It stands to reason Álvarez will have an opportunity to supplant him on the depth chart at some point next year. For now, he’ll get his feet in the majors as a bat-first option for the stretch run — with some postseason action perhaps on the horizon.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Sean Doolittle Plans To Pitch In 2023

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Lefty reliever Sean Doolittle plans to continue his playing career in 2023, he old Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post earlier this week. Doolittle, a veteran of eleven big league seasons and a free agent at the conclusion of the 2022 season, expressed his hope he can return to the Nationals.

“I really would like a do-over,” said Doolitte, who only appeared in six games in 2022 before being shut down with an elbow sprain that would lead him to undergo an internal brace procedure in July. “I realize that there’s a lot that I have to do on my end to even have that be a possibility. But hopefully January or ahead of camp in February, I can show them that I’m healthy and come in and compete for a spot.”

Doolittle first became a member of the Nationals in 2017 when he was dealt from Oakland to Washington at the deadline. He departed via free agency in 2021 but returned last offseason on a new free agent deal. In parts of five years as a National, Doolittle has appeared in 153 games, compiled a 2.92 ERA, has struck out 28.5% of batters faced, and appeared as an All-Star in 2018.

Though he only threw 5 1/3 innings in 2022, he allowed merely one of the seventeen batters he faced to reach base. He told Dougherty that if his recovery goes according to plan, he will throw bullpen sessions in January in order to amass data that he intends to use to solicit interest from teams, including the Nationals.

It is unclear whether the Nationals, who are currently in no position to compete but should have ample opportunity in their bullpen, would be interested in a reunion. Doolittle, on the other hand, was very clear with Dougherty about where he would like to play. “That would be amazing,” Doolittle said of a potential sixth season in Washington. “That would be best-case scenario, for sure, for so many different reasons.”

Sixto Sanchez To Undergo Shoulder Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

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Marlins righty Sixto Sanchez is set to undergo arthroscopic bursectomy surgery on his throwing shoulder on October 5th, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports (via Twitter). Sanchez, currently Miami’s eleventh-ranked prospect according to MLB.com, is expected to be ready for Spring Training 2023.

Sanchez’s upcoming surgery represents another setback in what has become a multi-season recovery for a player who was previously ranked as the #6 prospect in the league by Baseball America. Originally signed by the Phillies in 2015 as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic, Sanchez was acquired by Miami in the 2019 deal that sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia. He debuted in August of the COVID-shortened season and initially appeared to be as good as advertised, striking out 29 batters while only walking five in his first 32 innings of work. By the end of the 2020 season, Sanchez had accumulated a 3.46 ERA over seven starts, had averaged 98.8 mph on his power sinker, and had demonstrated above-average control (seven percent walk rate). He finished seventh in NL Rookie of the Year voting.

The upcoming procedure will be Sanchez’s second in as many seasons. He underwent surgery to repair a small tear in the posterior capsule of the same shoulder in July of 2021 after the Marlins shut him down for more than a month due to shoulder discomfort. After missing all of 2021, Sanchez had begun to finally show some signs of progress in July of 2022, but was plagued with more shoulder discomfort after a simulated game in August. He then received a cortisone shot to aid his recovery, and had even resumed playing catch at 60 feet before he was scheduled for his second surgery.

If he is able to recover in time to rejoin the Marlins rotation by the start of 2023, he will fit nicely into one of the most talented young rotations in baseball. At age 24, Sanchez still has the potential to be a highly-effective big league starter for years to come. From a front office perspective, Sanchez has the potential to be another key cost-controlled rotation piece for the Miami, as he has not yet accumulated a year’s worth of big league service time. He’s spent the past couple seasons on the minor league injured list, so he hasn’t accrued any MLB service during his rehab time.

Of course, Sanchez must first make a complete recovery from the nagging shoulder injury that has derailed his previous two seasons. Both Sanchez and the Marlins surely hope that the upcoming procedure will help put his injury woes firmly in the rearview mirror. He’ll go into 2023 looking to throw his first major league pitch in three years.

Angels Place Archie Bradley, Mickey Moniak On Injured List

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The Angels announced a series of roster moves in advance of tonight’s contest with the A’s. Reliever Archie Bradley and outfielder Mickey Moniak have each landed on the injured list, officially ending their 2022 seasons. Infielder David Fletcher was reinstated from the 10-day IL to take one of the vacated active roster spots, while reliever Nash Walters was recalled from Triple-A Salt Lake in the other transaction.

Bradley is dealing with a forearm strain, a disappointing conclusion to a season that has been marred by injury. The right-hander missed about three months after fracturing his elbow in late June, just returning from the IL on Tuesday. Without making an appearance, he heads back on the shelf. It’s unclear how serious the issue is, but Bradley has now had a successive elbow fracture and forearm strain since his most recent major league pitch.

That’s certainly not the way he’d have wanted to return to the open market. The veteran righty signed a $3.75MM guarantee with the Halos last offseason, and he’ll reach free agency again in a few months. Even prior to the injuries, the 30-year-old had a down season. Bradley posted a 4.82 ERA across 18 2/3 innings, the first time he’s pitched to an ERA above 4.00 since moving to the bullpen in 2017. He still averaged around 94 MPH on his fastball and induced ground-balls at an excellent 57.1% clip, but his 19.2% strikeout percentage and 8.1% swinging strike rate are each a few points below the league average.

Moniak, meanwhile, suffered a left hand contusion after a Kirby Snead pitch struck him on a check-swing last night. Moniak has been the victim of some brutal injury luck this season, as this marks his third hand-related IL stint of the season. He opened the year on the shelf with a fracture in his right hand while still a member of the Phillies, then lost a month recently due to a fractured finger on his left hand.

In the interim, Moniak was dealt from Philadelphia to Anaheim in the deadline swap that sent Noah Syndergaard to the Phils. The former first overall pick never emerged as the everyday center fielder the Phillies had hoped they were selecting, and he’d continued to scuffle over his first 19 games as an Angel. Moniak’s season concludes with a .170/.207/.302 line in 112 cumulative plate appearances.

Walters is now in line to make his major league debut. A third-round pick of the Brewers out of a Texas high school in 2015, the right-hander spent parts of seven seasons in the Milwaukee system. The Angels acquired him for cash considerations in the first week of September. Anaheim immediately added him to the 40-man roster but kept him on optional assignment to Salt Lake. After seven appearances with the Bees, the 25-year-old will get his first crack against big league hitters. Walters has spent most of the year in Double-A, working to a 4.60 ERA but striking out a third of opponents through 47 frames. He’ll look to compete for a spot in next season’s bullpen.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies perpetual effort at contention came up short this year. Colorado will finish below .500 for a fourth consecutive season, and they’re likely headed for a last place finish in the NL West. With no appetite for a rebuild, they’ll make another run at competing this offseason. There are a lot of holes to fill and a sizable number of financial commitments on the books. General manager Bill Schmidt and his staff will have their work cut out for them yet again.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Additional Financial Commitments

Would owe Cardinals $5MM as part of the Nolan Arenado trade if he foregoes opt-out opportunity

Total 2023 commitments (if Blackmon exercises option and Arenado doesn’t opt out): $117.25MM
Total future commitments (if Arenado doesn’t opt out): $389.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Free Agents

Few organizations value continuity as much as the Rockies. Even as they’re headed for a fourth straight subpar season, they’ve worked to keep the core of their roster intact. Last offseason saw a spate of extensions, with Elias Díaz, Ryan McMahon, Antonio Senzatela, C.J. Cron and, shortly after Opening Day, Kyle Freeland inked to multi-year deals. The Rox continued the pattern at the trade deadline even as it had become clear they weren’t postseason bound. Closer Daniel Bard would’ve been a slam-dunk trade candidate on most teams as he was headed towards free agency, but Colorado tacked on two years and $19MM to keep him in Denver through 2024.

The Rockies didn’t trade away anyone this summer, reinforcing their longstanding resistance to a major overhaul. It came as little surprise when general manager Bill Schmidt announced over the weekend the club had no plans to make a change atop the dugout, either. Manager Bud Black will return for a seventh season at the helm, and he’ll likely be tasked with getting better results from a roster than looks a lot like the 2022 iteration.

Colorado isn’t facing many noteworthy free agent departures. Fifth starter Chad Kuhl signed a $3MM deal last offseason after spending his career with the Pirates. That looked like a bargain after a strong first half, but he’s been crushed to the tune of an 8.42 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .318/.392/.636 since the All-Star Break. Kuhl didn’t lose any velocity, but his sinker has been hit hard in recent months. His season line is up to a career-worst 5.45 ERA with a below-average 18.1% strikeout rate over 26 starts.

The Rockies didn’t trade Kuhl this summer, ostensibly because there was mutual interest in a contract extension. Whether the team is still anxious to keep him around after his second-half performance is unclear, but they should be able to do so rather affordably if they’d like. Even if they bring Kuhl back, then adding at least another lower-cost starter in the Zach Davies mold feels like a must. Midseason signee José Ureña hasn’t pitched well and is headed back to free agency. Depth starter Ryan Feltner has an ERA pushing 6.00, while former second-round pick Peter Lambert has spent most of the season on the minor league injured list and looks like a non-tender candidate.

One can argue for the Rockies to pursue a more impactful rotation pickup than either of Kuhl or Davies. Colorado’s rotation ranks 29th in the majors in both ERA (5.29) and strikeout rate (17.1%) with a week remaining in the season. Spending half their games at Coors Field doesn’t do the Rockies’ staff any favors, but even park-adjusted metrics like ERA-minus and SIERA have been underwhelmed by the results. Six of Colorado’s seven starters have an ERA north of 5.00, while Freeland leads the club with a 4.63 mark.

In believing themselves to be contenders, the Rockies envisioned the rotation as the lifeblood of the club. They had seen varying levels of success from Germán Márquez, Freeland and Senzatela in prior seasons, and they’ve signed all three to long-term extensions. Márquez, in particular, looked like a high-quality hurler between 2018-21, but he’s had a nightmare 2022 season. Over 30 starts, he has a 5.12 ERA and has seen his strikeout (18.8%) and swinging strike (10.1%) rates fall precipitously from their above-average levels of seasons past. Márquez still throws hard and has an excellent curveball, but his slider has lost a bit of effectiveness while both his four-seam and sinking fastballs have been hit hard.

Getting Márquez back on track this offseason will be a top priority for Black and pitching coach Darryl Scott. He’s certain to get another crack in the rotation alongside Freeland. Senzatela will probably be back in the mix at some point, but he’s unlikely to be ready for Opening Day after tearing the ACL in his left knee last month. That leaves as many as three rotation spots up for grabs, at least to start the year.

The club had hoped Austin Gomber could plug one of those holes, but the key piece of the Nolan Arenado trade struggled to a 5.85 ERA through 16 starts before being moved to the bullpen in July. He’s pitched a little better as a long reliever but not dramatically so. Gomber may get another chance to compete for a rotation spot come Spring Training, but it’s hard to bank on him. Former first-rounder Ryan Rolison could get an opportunity as well, but he’s yet to make his major league debut and missed most of this season after undergoing shoulder surgery in early June.

It’s one of the thinner rotation outlooks in the majors, but the Rockies may not have a ton of room to add notable upgrades from the outside. Colorado will have roughly $112MM in player payroll committed to their 2023 roster once Charlie Blackmon exercises his $15MM player option (which is an inevitability). That’s before accounting for potential additional future payments to the Cardinals as part of the Arenado swap. As the Associated Press reported in April 2021, the Rox will owe St. Louis an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if Arenado declines to opt out of his contract at the end of the season. There’s a chance the Rockies are on the hook for around $117MM before getting to their arbitration class or considering any outside additions.

The franchise-record payroll is a hair north of $145MM, which they reached back in 2019, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It seems likely they’ll set a new franchise mark next season. That’s particularly true if they tender an arbitration contract to Dinelson Lamet, whom they claimed off waivers from the Brewers in early August. Lamet had struggled with injuries and underperformance his past couple seasons as a Padre, but he’s pitched to a 3.00 ERA with a hefty 32.5% strikeout rate in 18 innings of relief for Colorado. The right-hander is making $4.775MM this season and would be due a salary north of $5MM in 2023 if tendered a contract.

Those payroll limitations could lead Colorado to look towards the trade market in search of more affordable starting pitching. The Rockies farm system isn’t especially robust, particularly on the pitching side, but Colorado has seen the emergence of a few lower-level position players. Colorado has four of the top 53 prospects on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 update. Their top prospect, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, likely isn’t going anywhere now that he’s in the majors. Corner outfielder Zac Veen, catcher Drew Romo and shortstop Adael Amador are among the better minor league talents in the sport, though, and lower level hitters like Warming Bernabel, Yanquiel Fernandez and recent first-rounder Benny Montgomery have all had solid seasons. Dealing from that group to add an arbitration-eligible or pre-arb starter to the mix isn’t out of the question.

Aside from any external pickups, Lamet could be an option to battle Rolison, Gomber and Feltner for jobs in the rotation. It may be tempting to keep Lamet in the bullpen, where he’s been successful of late. Colorado will need a few quality arms to bridge the gap to Bard in the ninth inning. Among Rockies relievers with 15+ innings, the only four with a sub-4.00 ERA this season are Bard, Lamet, Carlos Estévez and Tyler Kinley. Estévez is set to hit free agency, while Kinley underwent elbow surgery this summer and might not return before the All-Star Break.

Left-hander Lucas Gilbreath has shown an intriguing enough combination of strikeouts and grounders to warrant a spot in next year’s bullpen, but there’s opportunity here as well. Estévez’s intriguing power arsenal makes him a candidate for a multi-year deal that might price out of Colorado’s range, given the various other holes on the roster. The Rox will probably bring in a veteran middle reliever or two, likely a lower-cost type like their $4.1MM flier on Alex Colomé last winter. Colomé himself will be a free agent and seems unlikely to return after a tough year.

Just as the Rockies are committed to bounceback years from a good chunk of their starting rotation, they’ll have to hope for better from many on the position player side. No player is more integral to the lineup than Kris Bryant, of course. Signed to a seven-year, $182MM free-agent deal last offseason, Bryant only appeared in 42 games because of a host of injuries. None was more impactful than the plantar fasciitis in his right foot that ended his season. The former MVP did hit well when healthy enough to take the field (.306/.376/.475). A full season from Bryant is critical if the Rox are to have any chance of competing, as he was brought in to serve as the lineup anchor the club lost when Arenado and Trevor Story departed.

Bryant will be back in left field, where he was supposed to see the bulk of playing time this year. Right field, Blackmon’s primary home for the past few seasons, is more of a question mark. Blackmon will be back for another year on the player option, but he’s seen more action at designated hitter than in the outfield in his age-35 campaign and will undergo knee surgery next week to repair a torn meniscus. He’ll presumably continue to see a bit of right field work, but the Rockies could also look outside the organization for help.

Randal Grichuk, acquired from the Blue Jays for Raimel Tapia just before Opening Day, is under contract for one more year but didn’t play particularly well during his debut campaign with the team. He’s in the center field mix but could also play right field regularly if the Rockies wanted to give the speedy Yonathan Daza a chance in center. Daza makes a ton of contact and hits for high batting averages, but his power impact is limited enough he’s better suited for fourth outfield work. Younger players like Elehuris Montero, Michael Toglia and Sean Bouchard could play their way into DH reps if the Rockies eschew an outfield addition and are comfortable plugging Blackmon back in right field regularly. Bouchard had the least prospect hype of that trio coming through the minors, but he’s the only one who has impressed in his limited big league work this year.

If Colorado were to look to free agency, there are a few mid-tier corner outfielders from which to choose. Adam Duvall and Joey Gallo are buy-low types whose huge power would make them interesting fits in Coors Field. Tyler Naquin has hit at a slightly above-average level for the second straight season. The Padres are sure to buy out Wil Myers, who wouldn’t be especially expensive.

The infield mix looks to be the most straightforward area of the roster. Cron has tailed off in the second half after an excellent start to the year, but he’s under contract for another season and should return as the primary first baseman. Former top prospect Brendan Rodgers has been up-and-down offensively as a major leaguer, but he’ll probably get another opportunity at second base. McMahon is the best player on the infield and will be back at the hot corner, while Tovar should be ready to step in at shortstop.

Colorado signed José Iglesias as a stopgap shortstop for the 2022 season. Iglesias had a fine year but will hit free agency this winter, and Colorado figures to move on and turn things over to the 21-year-old Tovar before long. Regarded by scouts as a plus defender, Tovar skyrocketed up prospect rankings after hitting .318/.386/.545 with 13 home runs and 17 stolen bases through 295 plate appearances at Double-A Hartford. He has almost no Triple-A experience, but Colorado brought him up for his MLB debut last week.

Carrying Tovar on next season’s Opening Day roster could have the added bonus of gaining the Rockies some extra draft capital down the line if he hits the ground running. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, players with less than 60 days of service who appear among two preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline can net their team a bonus amateur draft choice based on their early-career finishes in awards voting, so long as their club carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year. Tovar seems certain to qualify as a top prospect this winter, so there’s a bit of additional incentive to have him play regularly from the outset.

If the Rockies did want Tovar to get some run in Triple-A, they could sign someone like Elvis Andrus as a temporary shortstop option. When Tovar is ready for everyday reps, that player could kick to the bench and upgrade the infield depth over Garrett Hampson, who might be non-tendered this winter.

Behind the plate, the Rockies have relied upon a combination of Díaz and Brian Serven. Neither has played well enough the team should be satisfied running it back with that duo, but the Rox’s surprising decision to sign Díaz to a three-year extension last fall means he’s still due $11.5MM through 2024. Much of this winter’s free agent catching class is coming off down years, with Willson Contreras handily topping the market. It’d be a surprise to see the Rockies go to the level it’d take to bring in Contreras, unless owner Dick Monfort is prepared to shatter the organization’s previous spending levels. They could consider a run at a second-tier option like Christian Vázquez while relegating Díaz to the bench, even if doing so not long after signing the latter to an extension isn’t the outcome they had in mind. As with much of the roster, there’s room on paper for an addition, but budgetary limitations could lead the Rox to stick with an underperforming in-house option.

The Rockies are locked in to this core, and they’re clearly still of the belief the group can salvage better results. In Colorado’s defense, their visions of a Bryant-anchored lineup never got a chance to come to fruition this season. Even an MVP-caliber season from Bryant wouldn’t have gotten this team close to the postseason, but things wouldn’t have looked quite so bleak had he’d stayed healthy. Of course, Bryant’s durability (or lack thereof) was one of the primary red flags against him in free agency to begin with, and he’s now played in just 66% of his teams’ possible games dating back to 2018.

Most of the players in whom the club invested last year didn’t play up to the team’s expectations. They’ll need the bulk of that group to bounce back, since the Rockies have invested heavily enough in the roster there’s not likely to be a ton of room to supplement from the outside. Modest additions in the rotation, bullpen, outfield and behind the dish are all viable, but it’s unlikely they’ll make a splash at the top of the free agent market for a second consecutive winter. So much would need to break right it’s hard to envision the Rockies competing next season, but they’ve got little recourse but to hope for more from their top starters and last year’s big free agent addition.

Rays Designate Cristofer Ogando For Assignment

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The Rays announced they’ve selected right-hander Easton McGee onto the big league roster. Reliever Calvin Faucher was optioned to Triple-A Durham to open an active roster spot, while Tampa Bay designated righty Cristofer Ogando for assignment to create a vacancy on the 40-man roster.

Ogando was just selected onto the big league club last week. That marked his second stint on the 40-man roster this year, but each has proven brief. Ogando made one appearance during Tampa Bay’s series in Toronto in early July, and he came out of the bullpen twice last week before being optioned back to Durham. Those marked the 28-year-old’s first MLB outings, and he’s tossed 4 1/3 innings of two-run ball. Ogando has struck out a pair, issued one walk and averaged 94.6 MPH on his fastball and 81.3 MPH on his breaking pitch.

A former Marlins and Diamondbacks farmhand, Ogando has spent the past few years in the Rays system. Aside from his limited big league action, he’s spent the entire year in Durham. Working as a multi-inning reliever, the Dominican Republic native has pitched to a 4.66 ERA with an average 23.5% strikeout rate and an alarming 11.5% walk percentage through 53 1/3 frames with the Bulls.

This is the second time the Rays have designated him for assignment, and he’ll find himself on waivers in the next few days. Ogando went unclaimed the last time his name was on the wire. If he goes unclaimed again, he’d have the right to refuse an outright assignment in favor of free agency. Even if he accepts an assignment back to Durham, he’ll qualify for minor league free agency at the end of the season unless the Rays put him back on the 40-man roster in the interim.

Taking Ogando’s place on the 40-man is McGee, who’ll be making his major league debut if he’s called upon by manager Kevin Cash. A fourth-round pick out of a Kentucky high school in 2016, the 6’6″ righty has spent seven years in the minors. McGee has never appeared on an organizational prospects list at Baseball America or FanGraphs, but he’s shown excellent control throughout his time in pro ball. He’s never walked more than 5% of opponents at any full-season affiliate, with his strike-throwing ability standing out as his primary attribute.

McGee has never missed many bats in the minors, and that’s continued this season. He has a below-average 17.4% strikeout rate through 107 2/3 innings with Durham this year. The 24-year-old had posted decent ground-ball rates until this year, but he’s given up a fair bit more airborne contact during his first extended crack at Triple-A. McGee has induced grounders on just under 40% of batted balls and has surrendered more than two home runs per nine innings en route to a 5.43 ERA. He’s worked primarily as a starter in the minors but figures to assume a long relief role during his initial big league look, with Cash able to count on him to throw strikes when called upon.

Twins To Retain Derek Falvey As President Of Baseball Operations

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The Twins have announced that president of baseball operations Derek Falvey will return for the 2023 season. Per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park, team president Dave St. Peter said of Falvey: “We think we have a very dynamic, smart, forward-thinking leader, and he’ll be back in 2023, and I’m hoping many, many years after that.”

Falvey has guided the team to a 449-414 record — a 52% winning percentage since he started leading the Twins after the 2016 season. That run includes three postseason appearances and back-to-back division titles in 2019 and 2020. After those seasons, which saw the Twins win 101 games in 2019 and post a .600 winning percentage in the shortened 2020 season, Minnesota has delivered consecutive disappointing seasons. In 2021, the team missed the playoffs with a 73-89 record, and through 155 games this season has posted a 76-79 record that has again eliminated from them from playoff contention. Despite these recent disappointments, the Twins will continue to turn to Falvey to lead baseball operations.

Although Minnesota has struggled, Falvey and his front office were aggressive this past calendar year in terms of making additions —  even beyond Carlos Correa joining the team in perhaps the most surprising deal of this past offseason. In that timeframe, the Twins have added Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Chris Paddack, and Tyler Mahle to their rotation, Jorge Lopez to their bullpen, and Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez to their lineup (in addition to Correa).

Aggressive moves aren’t always effective ones, however, and Minnesota’s moves have played out to mixed results this season. Signing Correa appears to have been a slam dunk in hindsight, and a handful of moves on the trade market seem to be clear wins at this point: trading for Gray, essentially swapping Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez in a pair of trades with the Rangers and the Yankees, and acquiring Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz from the Rays at last year’s deadline. On the other hand, the additions of Archer and Emilio Pagan have largely fallen flat, and other acquisitions, such as Mahle, Paddack, and Lopez, provided virtually no value this season, although they could certainly still work out in the long term.

While the Twins certainly have their flaws, Minnesota has also undeniably been held back by a rash of injuries in 2022. The Twins have had 32 players spend time on the injured list this season, including each of their aforementioned rotation additions. Their lineup has suffered from these injuries as well, with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Ryan Jeffers among those missing significant time. Overall, just four players have reached 130 games played for the Twins this season, and Ryan leads Minnesota pitchers with just 141 innings pitched.

Between the exceptional injury woes the organization has faced this year and the fact that Falvey is signed through 2024, it’s not a huge surprise that he, like manager Rocco Baldelli, be retained. Falvey will have more work to do this offseason, with Correa likely to opt out of his contract, and questions in a rotation that may lose both Archer and Dylan Bundy this offseason. The team holds a club option on Bundy and a mutual option with Archer, but neither option seems likely to be picked up. Gray’s option should be exercised, slotting him into next year’s rotation alongside Ryan, Mahle (health permitting) and a hopefully healthy Kenta Maeda (who missed 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery). Still, there’s plenty of work to be done on both sides of the ball if the Twins are to avoid a third straight playoff miss next year.

Note: The original version of this post erroneously called the Twins’ record under Falvey 371-414, a 47.2% win percentage. The correct record is 449-414, a 52% win percentage. MLBTR apologizes for the error.

Rich Hill Plans To Pitch In 2023

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Red Sox lefty Rich Hill indicated after yesterday’s start that he plans to continue pitching in 2023, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Hill, a Boston native, indicated that his preference for his age-43 season next year is a return to the Red Sox, for whom he’s pitched to a 4.41 ERA across 118 1/3 innings this year. Hill suggested he would entertain the idea of signing only for half of the season, joining a club partway through the 2023 campaign, noting that he’d discuss specific plans with his family this winter.

With the Red Sox also set to lose right-handers Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha to free agency this offseason, it seems likely that the Red Sox would have interest in a reunion. With youngsters Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford struggling to ERAs over 5.00 during their stints in the rotation this season, and team ace Chris Sale having pitched just 48 1/3 innings since the end of the 2019 season, it would appear Nick Pivetta is the only steady presence in the Red Sox rotation entering 2023 at the moment.

That being said, top prospect Brayan Bello has also pitched solidly in 10 starts in the majors this year, so he is likely to compete for an opening day rotation spot as well. Garrett Whitlock has pitched well in 78 1/3 innings this season, but the Red Sox seem to prefer him in a swing role between the bullpen and the rotation; of his 31 games played this season, only nine of them were starts, and he pitched beyond the fourth inning just four times. James Paxton could pick up his player option for 2023, but after missing the entire 2022 season and pitching just 1 1/3 innings in 2021, he can hardly be counted on for significant innings next year.

Even if a reunion between Hill and the Red Sox doesn’t work out, Hill should find himself with plenty of suitors this offseason. While he has only pitched to an ERA+ of 96, 4% below league average, Hill’s 3.82 FIP this year indicates that he may have been somewhat unlucky to end up with the results he has this season. He has stranded just 67.9% of baserunners this season, a significant dip from his career norms, and his BABIP has risen to .310 this year, a clip much higher than his career mark of .279.

On the other hand, Hill has seen his strikeout rate decline this season, with his 20.4% strikeout rate failing to measure up to his career 24.5% mark, or even the 22.7% he achieved in 2021. Whether Hill can expect positive regression next year or not, his numbers suggest he can still provide steady, back of the rotation production. Furthermore, despite being the oldest pitcher in MLB, Hill has largely managed to stay healthy in recent years, with a one month stint on the injured list for a sprained knee this July being his only injury since the start of the 2021 season.

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