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Archives for March 2023

Rockies Option Nolan Jones

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The Rockies announced this evening that corner infielder/outfielder Nolan Jones has been optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque. Reliever Noah Davis was also optioned, while non-roster invitees Logan Allen, Jeff Criswell, Braxton Fulford and Karl Kauffmann were all reassigned to minor league camp.

Jones’ demotion comes as a bit of a surprise. Colorado acquired the 24-year-old from the Guardians at the start of the offseason, sending infield prospect Juan Brito the other way. It was a rare swap of fairly well regarded young players, with Colorado taking the shot on a power hitter closer to the majors while Cleveland added an up-the-middle talent with excellent numbers in Low-A. Jones entered camp with what seemed to be a strong chance to crack the Opening Day team in Colorado, an opportunity that might not have been afforded on a deeper Guardians’ roster.

That became particularly true once the Rox lost starting second baseman Brendan Rodgers to what could be a season-ending shoulder dislocation. That opened the possibility of third baseman Ryan McMahon moving back to the keystone. Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt declared that the plan a couple weeks ago. The club later added Mike Moustakas to the organization on a non-roster pact. Moustakas played a decent amount of second base between 2019-20 but has only logged 10 2/3 innings there over the past two seasons. Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweeted shortly after the signing that the Rockies viewed Moustakas solely as a corner infield/designated hitter option.

With McMahon likely headed to second, third base became a position for grabs. Jones, Elehuris Montero and non-roster veterans Moustakas and Harold Castro appeared the top candidates. Jones is now out of the mix to start the season, due at least in part to a disappointing spring performance. The left-handed hitter hit .186/.250/.233 in exhibition play, striking out 20 times in 48 plate appearances. Moustakas, Montero and Castro have all gotten off to better starts this spring.

A former second-round pick, Jones appeared among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects each season from 2019-21. He has generated intrigue for huge walk tallies and big power potential in his 6’4″ frame but lofty strikeout totals have been the biggest concern. Jones routinely struck out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances climbing the minor league ladder, including a 30% rate in Triple-A in 2021. To his credit, he trimmed that to 25.8% with a quality .276/.368/.463 line over 55 games there last year. That earned him a 28-game MLB look, in which he posted a .244/.309/.372 slash with 31 punchouts and eight walks in 94 plate appearances.

Jones will start the year with the Isotopes and should benefit from one of the most favorable offensive environments in pro ball. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him earn a recall to make his team debut before too long. In the interim, his option seems to bode well for Moustakas’ and Castro’s chances of cracking the roster out of camp.

The remainder of the corner spots should be spoken for if everyone’s healthy. The Rockies have agreed to terms with Jurickson Profar to play left field, thereby pushing Kris Bryant to right. First baseman C.J. Cron has dealt with some back discomfort but informed reporters today he expects to be ready for Opening Day (via Harding). The same is true for corner outfielder/DH Charlie Blackmon, who has also been slowed by a back problem but expects to participate in batting practice this evening (relayed by Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette).

Braves Option Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake

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The Braves will option infielders Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake to Triple-A, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Both had been in line for the Opening Day shortstop job in Atlanta, but it seems that will now go to Orlando Arcia. David O’Brien of The Athletic relays that Arcia will get the starting gig with Ehire Adrianza as the utility infielder. Adrianza is not currently on the 40-man roster. The Braves subsequently announced the moves as part of a larger batch of roster cuts, including outfielders Jordan Luplow, Eli White and right-hander Nick Anderson.

The Braves went into this offseason with a shortstop vacancy for the first time in years, as Dansby Swanson has held down that job since late 2016. Swanson reached free agency this offseason and was considered one of the “Big Four” shortstops, alongside Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Despite that robust class of shortstops, Atlanta seemingly had little interest in either re-signing Swanson or going after anyone else. Eventually, the offseason came and went with the club’s big move being the trade for catcher Sean Murphy, who was later extended.

It seemed the club was satisfied with its internal shortstop options, with Grissom and Arcia the favorites for the role. Grissom had made his debut last year when he was just 21 years old, largely filling in at second base for the injured Ozzie Albies. He hit well in his first 156 plate appearances, producing a batting line of .291/.353/.440 for a wRC+ of 121. However, that may have been buoyed by a red hot start, as he hit .347/.398/.558 through September 7 but just .174/.264/.196 after.

Nonetheless, it was an encouraging start for such a young player and the club seemed to be a big believer in his abilities. Though he largely played second in his MLB debut, he was a shortstop in the minors. But that didn’t mean moving back to the other side of the bag was an obvious choice, as prospect evaluators had long raised questions about his ability to stick at short. It seems the club decided it was worth pursuing regardless of those concerns, as they tasked coach Ron Washington with working on Grissom’s shortstop defense this offseason. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos discussed the situation in January, after Swanson had signed with the Cubs.

“I can see how the scouting community might have questions about Vaughn. I had questions about Vaughn when I first saw him,” Anthopoulos said (link via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “And I’ve been wrong plenty of times. The difference is we have a guy in Ron Washington who’s unbelievable with this stuff. He wouldn’t just say something to say it. … And, look, we don’t know how Vaughn’s going to hit. He’s got to earn the job. Orlando Arcia can do it, too. But Wash really believes in Vaughn. We believe in Vaughn, too, but we’re going to go with who we think the expert in that area is, and I don’t know anybody better in the game than Ron.”

For most of the winter, it seemed it would be a two-horse race for the job between Grissom and Arcia, but there was a late charge from Shewmake. It was reported just yesterday that Shewmake’s hot spring was making things interesting. His prospect profile was essentially the inverse of Grissom’s, as his glovework is graded much stronger than his bat. But he hit .323/.382/.452 in spring action and seemed to give himself some momentum to take the job.

However, it now seems that neither of the youngsters will get the job, at least here at the end of spring. With Grissom and Shewmake both getting optioned today, it seems they’ve decided to go with the veteran in Arcia. Though he is more established, with 642 games of major league experience, there’s still risk with the 28-year-old. He’s coming off a fairly solid season as the club’s utility infielder, hitting .244/.316/.416 for a wRC+ of 104. However, the rest of his work at the plate is less impressive, as he had hit .242/.293/.363 coming into the year for a wRC+ of 70. He also hasn’t had a full-time shortstop gig since 2019, when defensive metrics gave him poor reviews and he was pushed into a utility role over the past three years.

This is merely a temporary move and the club could quickly call up Grissom or Shewmake early on in the season. However, it’s still a surprising result given the club’s recent history. They’ve shown a strong willingness to be aggressive with their young players, with both Grissom and Michael Harris II skipping Triple-A last year, going straight from Double-A to the bigs. The club then avoided free agents all winter, seeming to have little interest in either the marquee players or even a modest deal for someone like Elvis Andrus. It seems they’ve decided Grissom and Shewmake need more time and are now left with Arcia as their top option at short, at least for the time being.

The move could have service time implications for the younger players, as Shewmake’s clock has yet to start ticking and Grissom has a tally of 57 days. Whether either of them can reach the one-year mark this season will depend upon how long they eventually spend in the minors. It’s possible to earn a full year of service time even while spending time in the minors if a youngster finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year balloting, but they also have to appear at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline. Neither Grissom or Shewmake are on any of those three lists at the moment.

With Arcia securing the starting gig, Adrianza will apparently need to be added to the roster to take the backup infield job. He hit just .175/.264/.206 last year but is capable of playing any position other than catcher.

Turning to the other moves, Luplow and White were both in contention for a job backing up the starting outfield trio of Ronald Acuña Jr., Eddie Rosario and Harris. They seem to have been bumped out of that contest, at least for Opening Day. That perhaps will allow Sam Hilliard and Kevin Pillar to secure jobs on the bench. Nick Anderson was in the running for a bullpen job but will start the season in the minors.

Atlanta will need to make some roster moves in the wake of all this, but they may have already gotten a head start on that. Neither of Adrianza or Pillar are on the roster and it looks like the fifth starter job will go to one of Dylan Dodd or Jared Shuster, with neither of them being on the roster either. However, they recently opened a couple of spots when they lost Dennis Santana on waivers to the Twins and outrighted Jackson Stephens. They can also open a couple more by transferring Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek to the 60-day IL, with both pitchers likely out for the season due to Tommy John surgery.

Red Sox’ Joely Rodríguez Diagnosed With Grade 2 Oblique Strain

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Red Sox left-hander Joely Rodríguez has a Grade 2 oblique strain, manager Alex Cora tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Cora declined to provide a timetable for the southpaw, saying only that he would return “whenever he’s ready.” However, even mild oblique strains usually lead to absences of a few weeks, so Rodríguez seems slated to miss significant time.

Rodríguez, 31, was signed in the offseason to a one-year, $2MM deal with a club option for 2024. He spent last year with the Mets, posting a 4.47 ERA over 55 appearances. He walked 12% of batters faced but got strikeouts at a 26.4% rate and grounders at a 53.8% clip. It’s possible that he deserved better than that ERA indicates, as his .303 batting average on balls in play and his 63.3% strand rate were both on the unlucky side of average. His 3.23 FIP and 3.54 SIERA suggest he could be better if his luck were to even out.

Unfortunately, he will have to wait a while to test that luck with his new club, as he’s likely going to be out of action for a while. Though Cora wouldn’t provide any specifics on the estimated return timeline, there are some recent examples with more details. The Rays, for instance, gave an estimate of six-to-eight weeks when Tyler Glasnow recently suffered his own Grade 2 oblique strain. Every injury is different and it can’t simply be assumed that Rodriguez is looking at the same timeframe, but that can at least provide a rough guideline for what might be on the table here.

The Sox were set to have two lefties in their Opening Day bullpen, with Richard Bleier being the other. There are no other lefty relievers on the 40-man roster, but this news will perhaps open the door for someone else to make the club. Ryan Sherriff was signed to a minor league deal this offseason and could be an option. He was reassigned to minor league camp last week but this new info could perhaps increase his chances of making the club.

If the Sox are interested in external additions, the free agent market still features guys like Zack Britton and Ross Detwiler. It’s also possible that some new names will join them on the open market as Opening Day approaches and other clubs make their final roster decisions.

Phillies Acquire Jordan Qsar From Rays

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The Phillies have acquired outfielder Jordan Qsar from the Rays, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The Phillies are sending cash considerations the other way, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic.

Qsar, 27, will jump to just the second organization of his career, as he’s spent it all with the Rays until now. That club selected him in the 25th round of the 2018 draft. Since then, Qsar has moved his way up the minor league ladder, showing some power and on-base ability, but also huge strikeout numbers.

Last year, Qsar split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, getting into 102 games between those two levels. In his 411 plate appearances, he hit 17 home runs and walked at a 10.7% clip but also got punched out at a 38.2% rate. His combined batting line was .227/.321/.452, leading to a wRC+ of 101, indicating he was a hair above average. He also swiped 11 bags on the season.

Qsar got a non-roster invite to spring with the Rays but has struggled mightily. In 31 plate appearances, he’s struck out 14 times, a 45.2% rate. His batting line is .192/.323/.192, which includes five walks, a 16.1% rate. Spring performance aside, the Phils evidently still like the power and on-base potential Qsar brings and have brought him aboard.

The Phillies are likely to have an outfield of Brandon Marsh in center, flanked by Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in the corners. With Bryce Harper out of action until midseason due to Tommy John surgery, the designated hitter spot is open, with Schwarber and Castellanos perhaps seeing some time there. Jake Cave and Dalton Guthrie could be in the mix for a fourth outfielder role, with the 40-man roster also featuring Simon Muzziotti, Jhailyn Ortiz and Johan Rojas. Qsar will give the club some non-roster depth alongside that group, having played all three spots in his career.

Angels’ José Marte Shut Down For Four Weeks With Stress Reaction In Elbow

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The Angels informed reporters, including Sam Blum of The Athletic and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, that right-hander José Marte has a stress reaction in his right elbow. He’ll be shut down for the next four weeks at least. The good news is that testing showed his ulnar collateral ligament is not damaged.

Marte, 27 in June, came over to the Angels from the Giants in the July 2021 Tony Watson trade and was selected to their roster shortly thereafter. Since then, he’s served as a frequently-optioned depth arm for the club. He’s posted an unsightly 7.80 ERA in the majors so far, though that’s in a small sample of just 15 innings. He also has a 5.73 ERA in the minors since that trade, striking out 27.6% of batters faced but giving free passes at an unfortunate 14.8% clip.

The righty wasn’t set to be the most essential piece of the bullpen in Anaheim, but it’s a hit to their optionable depth, something valuable to teams over the long haul of a season. It’s also possible that Marte could find some more upside if he can rein in the walks, as Baseball America considered him the club’s #15 prospect at this time a year ago with control the primary concern on his profile. Unfortunately, he’ll now have to wait a while before he can continue his progress.

If there’s a silver lining for the club, it’s that this may allow them to open up a roster spot. Even if Marte is healthy after his four-week shutdown period, he will then need to have a delayed spring ramp-up period to get back into game action. If the club doesn’t think he’ll be back by late May, they could move him to the 60-day injured list, thus freeing up a spot on the 40-man roster. Some of the non-roster invitees in camp include Jake Lamb, Chris Devenski and Jonathan Holder.

Rangers Plan To Use Robbie Grossman As Primary Left Fielder

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When the Rangers signed veteran switch-hitter Robbie Grossman early in spring training, it looked like a sensible enough fit. Grossman has a lengthy track record of hitting left-handed pitching well, and the Rangers had multiple lefty-swinging options who could form a platoon with Grossman (e.g. Josh Smith, Brad Miller). However, manager Bruce Bochy said yesterday that Grossman isn’t likely to be platooned but rather to head into the season in line for the lion’s share of playing time in left field (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). The Rangers like the adjustments Grossman has made from the left side of the dish and will give him a chance to play more often than not.

The decision to give Grossman regular playing time — or at least something close to it — is to his benefit in multiple ways. Beyond giving him a larger workload as he showcases for a return to free agency next winter, Grossman’s one-year, $2MM deal also comes with up to $3MM worth of incentives. Those are based on plate appearances, MLBTR has learned. He’ll receive a $250K bonus for reaching 250 and 300 plate appearances, and he’d receive $500K for hitting each of 350, 400, 450, 500 and 550 plate appearances. Most of those milestones would’ve been out of reach in a platoon role, but if he can take the everyday role and run with it, he can more than double his base salary.

Grossman has had an absolutely monstrous showing at the plate thus far in camp. The 33-year-old is hitting .406/.512/.656 with a pair of doubles, a pair of homers and more walks (eight) than strikeouts (four) through his first 41 plate appearances. Obviously, spring stats are best taken with a grain of salt, but it’s hard to imagine Grossman doing much more to with the opportunity he’s received in Texas. He’s even gone 3-for-3 in stolen-base attempts despite not typically being a huge threat to run during the regular season (his 20-steal 2021 campaign standing as the lone exception of note).

Grossman is looking for a rebound campaign after seeing his production dip to a tepid .209/.310/.311 slash in 477 plate appearances between Detroit and Atlanta last year. His ability — or lack thereof — to produce from the left side of the plate will be pivotal. Even as he struggled last year, Grossman hit .320/.436/.443 as a right-handed hitter. Producing against lefties has rarely been a problem for him, but he’s just a .232/.335/.363 career hitter against right-handed pitching. Grossman draws plenty of walks regardless of which side of the plate he’s standing on, but the .196/.308/.331 slash he’s logged in 783 plate appearances versus righties over the past two seasons won’t cut it in a regular role.

Defensively, Grossman has developed from a liability early in his career to an average or better left fielder. Back in 2016 with the Twins, he was dinged for an eye-popping -20 Defensive Runs Saved and -11 Outs Above Average in just 635 innings. Over the past four seasons, however, he’s been a scratch defender in the eyes of DRS. Both Ultimate Zone Rating (1.3) and OAA (2) feel he’s been a bit above average over that span of 2422 innings. Grossman probably won’t win a Gold Glove, but he’s become a capable option.

If the plan to give Grossman the bulk of the playing time in left doesn’t pan out, the options beyond him are more limited. Both Smith and Miller could get a look, though each is coming off a down season in 2022. Smith has yet to establish himself in the Majors despite being a former prospect of note. Fleet-footed Bubba Thompson figures to be the team’s fourth outfielder because of his speed, but he bats from the right side of the dish (Grossman’s stronger side). With Leody Taveras potentially beginning the season on the injured list, Thompson could open the season in center field. Non-roster veteran Travis Jankowski offers a similar speed-and-defense-driven skill set from the left side of the plate. If that in-house slat of options doesn’t work out, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see the Rangers in the market for some outfield help on the summer trade market.

Phillies Release Mark Appel

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The Phillies announced today that right-hander Mark Appel has been released. He had been in camp on a minor league deal. They also reassigned left-hander Ben Bowden, right-hander Louis Head and catcher Max McDowell to minor league camp.

Appel, 31, had been having a rough showing this spring. In six appearances, he allowed six walks and ten hits, including three home runs. He did record five strikeouts, but the seven earned runs in 5 2/3 innings led to an ERA of 11.12.

The righty was looking continue a nice comeback story from last year. The first overall pick from the 2013 draft, taken by the Astros, Appel was a mainstay of top prospect lists for a few years. He was traded to the Phillies prior to the 2016 season in the deal that sent Ken Giles to Houston. Unfortunately, his results in the minors didn’t live up to his prospect pedigree, with elbow and shoulder injuries hampering his progress.

He walked away from the game after the 2017 season, candidly discussing his physical and mental struggles with Joon Lee of Bleacher Report at that time, admitting that he might be the worst draft bust in MLB history. “It depends on how you define it, but I probably am,” Appel said. “I had high expectations. I didn’t live up to those for a number of reasons. If you want to call me the biggest draft bust, you can call it that. … If I never get to the big leagues, will it be a disappointment? Yes and no. That was a goal and a dream I had at one point, but that’s with stipulations that I’m healthy, I’m happy and doing something I love. If I get to the big leagues, what’s so great about the big leagues if you’re in an isolated place, you’re hurt and you’re emotionally unhappy? How much is that worth to you?”

In 2021, he began a comeback attempt, returning to the Phillies. He only posted a 6.06 ERA in the minors that year, but it would be fair to expect a bit of rust after three years without any organized game action. He was much better last year, posting a 1.61 ERA in Triple-A through the end of June. Amazingly, his comeback attempt resulted in him finally getting to the majors. The Phillies selected him to the roster on June 25 and he was able to make six appearances for the club, with a 1.74 ERA in 10 1/3 innings. Some elbow inflammation put him on the injured list in September and ended his season, but he had made it to the show.

After the season, he was outrighted off the roster but returned to the Phillies on a minor league deal. Unfortunately, he’s hit another setback here in spring and has been set loose. Appel took to Twitter recenty to publicly ruminate about his current position, bringing the same kind of candidness he showed when walking away from the game all those years ago. It doesn’t appear he’s planning to walk away right now, but he is remarkably self-aware of the fact that he may have exhausted his opportunities.

“I am a 31-year-old rookie relief pitcher with 6 MLB appearances to my name,” he says in the thread. “I’m not on the 40-man roster. I’m a career 5+ minor league ERA pitcher with a history of injuries. All logic suggests the odds are not in my favor.” He continues: “The reality is I am one of a large number of players that find themselves in this “in-between” space. Good enough to help a big league team (in a small role) if given the opportunity, but too old or lacking experience for teams to be patient. The future is wildly uncertain.” Appel goes on to get into detail about his approach to battling the anxiety that comes with his precarious position and trying to lean into feelings of gratitude instead. “Gratitude lets me focus on the little things I get to do every day, despite not knowing what the future holds.”

Guardians Sign Jhon Romero To Minor League Deal

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The Guardians announced Monday that they’ve signed right-handed reliever Jhon Romero to a minor league contract. He’s headed straight to minor league camp and will appear in a minor league game for them today, per the team.

Romero, 28, has seen brief big league time in each of the past two seasons. He tossed four innings for the Nationals in his MLB debut in 2021 and pitched five innings with the Twins in 2022. In that limited time, Romero has a 4.00 ERA with a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio and a 54.8% ground-ball rate. He made Minnesota’s Opening Day roster in 2022 and looked sharp early on, but he hit the IL after just five appearances due to biceps tendinitis and was never able to get back to the mound. The Twins outrighted him after the season, and he elected minor league free agency.

Romero’s professional career has been limited to 177 1/3 innings, but he’s pitched to an impressive 2.84 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate during that time. He also pitched for Colombia in this year’s World Baseball Classic, allowing a pair of runs in 2 1/3 innings. It should be noted that Romero has only pitched 7 1/3 innings in Triple-A (in addition to his nine MLB innings), so most of his professional success has come at the Double-A level or lower. Still, he’s averaged 94.5 mph on his heater in the Majors, induced grounders and has a strong track record overall. He’ll add a relatively intriguing arm to a Cleveland system that has a knack for developing pitchers and coaxing big performances out of unheralded arms.

Reds Release Daniel Norris

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The Reds announced Monday that they’ve released left-handed reliever Daniel Norris, who’d been in camp on a minor league deal. Cincinnati also optioned outfielder Stuart Fairchild to Triple-A Louisville and reassigned righty Silvino Bracho and infielder/outfielder Alejo Lopez to minor league camp.

It’s been a tough spring for Norris, who’s appeared in seven games with the Reds but been tagged for six runs (five earned) in 6 2/3 innings of work. Opponents have collected a dozen hits against the veteran southpaw, and he’s shown some troubling command issues as well. Norris has walked seven of his 40 opponents and plunked another three.

The 29-year-old Norris was once regarded as one of the top prospects in all of baseball, even headlining the Tigers’ return for David Price (alongside Matthew Boyd) when trading him to the Blue Jays at the 2015 trade deadline. He’s shown promise at varying points — 3.55 ERA in 129 1/3 frames with the Tigers from 205-16 — but Norris has also been slowed by injuries and a frightening battle with thyroid cancer, which he thankfully overcame.

Norris split the 2021-22 seasons between the Cubs, Tigers and Brewers but turned in a sub-par 5.68 ERA in 115 2/3 innings during that time. He was far more impressive with Detroit during the shortened 2020 season, logging a 3.25 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate and strong 6% walk rate in 27 2/3 innings out of the bullpen.

Overall, Norris has a 4.71 ERA in 569 2/3 big league innings. He’s fanned just under a quarter of his opponents over the past three seasons — an improvement from his early-career levels — but those increased punchouts have came with an increase in walks as well. Norris walked hitters at an 8.6% clip through 2019 but has issued free passes at a 10.7% rate over the past three years. He’ll look for opportunities elsewhere, and while teams in need of a left-handed reliever could well have interest in him as a depth piece, he might have to take another minor league deal and pitch his way onto a big league roster with a strong showing in Triple-A.

As far as the Reds’ bullpen is concerned, Norris’ release could bode well for lefty Alex Young. The former D-backs and Giants hurler is also in camp on a non-roster deal, but he’s had a much stronger showing, allowing just two runs with a 9-to-2 K/BB ratio in eight innings. Either Young or waiver claim Bennett Sousa would give manager David Bell a second lefty alongside Reiver Sanmartin. Sousa is already on the 40-man roster.

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years, taking their payroll to levels it’s never reached before. It finally paid off in 2022, as the club made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They doubled down on that aggression this winter, signing multiple free agents and locking up a couple of players with notable extensions.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $68.7MM
Total spending: $407.2MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Robert Suarez opted out of one year and $5MM remaining on contract for $1MM buyout, later re-signed
  • OF Jurickson Profar opted out of one year and $7.5MM remaining on contract for $1MM buyout
  • Club declined $20MM option on OF Wil Myers in favor of $1MM buyout
  • RHP Nick Martinez opted out of three years and $18MM remaining on contract for $1.5MM buyout, later re-signed

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Going into the 2018 season, the Padres decided it was time for change. It had been over a decade since their last trip to the postseason and they had never been huge players in free agency. They started to flip that narrative by signing first baseman Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144MM contract. That deal didn’t end up going well, but it nonetheless sent the message that the club meant business. That was followed up with the club signing Manny Machado and extending Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as trading for players like Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell.

Despite all those bold moves, the club still found ways to struggle. Though they qualified for the postseason in the expanded field of the shortened 2020 campaign, they finished below .500 in each 162-game season from 2011 to 2021. Things finally clicked in 2022, with the Padres stealing all the headlines at the trade deadline by acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Brandon Drury. It resulted in the club finishing 89-73 and grabbing a Wild Card spot. They knocked off heavyweight teams like the Mets and the Dodgers before ultimately falling to the Phillies in the NLCS.

Though they finally broke through and had the success that long eluded them, the club quickly made it clear that they had little interest in taking their foot off the gas as they continue their pursuit of a World Series title. The first order of business was retaining a few in-house players. Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez each opted out of their respective contracts to become free agents. Within a few days, they were already back in the fold on eight-figure guarantees. Suarez was excellent in 2022, but it was his first in the majors at the age of 31 after many years in Japan. It was a somewhat similar situation for Martinez, who was also 31 and had been in Japan for three years following a rough MLB stint from 2014-17. The fact that the club made such large guarantees to relatively unproven pitchers signaled that they would have few financial obstacles in their path this winter.

From there, the Friars set their sights on a big splash. They reportedly offered both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge larger guarantees than they eventually accepted from the Phillies and Yankees, respectively. That’s not to say that either player turned up their nose at a chance of joining the Padres, as Turner seemingly preferred to be on the East Coast while Judge preferred to remain a Yankee for life.

After missing on two big swings, the club finally connected on the star signing they sought with Xander Bogaerts. The deal shattered most predictions, including ours. MLBTR pegged Bogaerts for a seven-year, $189MM deal, but he ended up soaring past that both in terms of the years and the guarantee. It was also surprising to see the Padres pursue a shortstop, as that didn’t seem to be their primary need. Ha-Seong Kim had a fine season replacing Fernando Tatis Jr., who missed all of 2022 due to injuries and an 80-game PED suspension. Tatis still has 20 games left on that but should be back in action early in 2023. The fact that the club initially set its sights on Judge perhaps indicates there was a chance Tatis could stick at short, but the acquisition of Bogaerts also showed they weren’t committed to letting him retake his spot there.

With Bogaerts now set to take over at the club’s everyday shortstop, Kim will get pushed over to second, nudging Jake Cronenworth to first. That will leave Tatis in the outfield, alongside Soto and Trent Grisham. That reduced the need for a big splash in the outfield, but the club did bolster their options on the grass by signing Matt Carpenter and Adam Engel. The latter is a glove-first option that was non-tendered by the White Sox and should make for a solid fourth outfielder. The former was awful from 2019 to 2021 but rebounded tremendously last year. He re-emerged with the Yankees and was one of the best hitters on the planet for a stretch before a foot fracture slowed him down. He finished the year with 15 home runs in just 47 games and a batting line of .305/.412/.727, wRC+ of 217. He played the four corner positions last year and could do so again, though the eventual return of Tatis should diminish the need for him to take any outfield reps.

All of this shuffling is necessary to get Bogaerts into the shortstop position and, more importantly, his bat into the lineup. Over the past five seasons, Bogaerts has hit 105 home runs and slashed .300/.373/.507 for a wRC+ of 134. That latter number places him in the top 20 among all qualified hitters in the league. He’s been remarkably consistent, keeping that figure between 129 and 141 in each of those five campaigns. His defense has been a little less consistent, but he did get positive grades from all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average last year. The Padres made a significant investment to get a deal done, but there’s every reason to expect they got a premier player for it.

With Bogaerts in hand, the next stage of the offseason continued to be busy, though at a lesser tier of free agency. Though they had retained Martinez, the rotation was still in need of bolstering with the departures of Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger. Offseason rumors suggested that clubs were interested in Seth Lugo as a starter, despite the fact that he’s been pitching out of the Mets’ bullpen for the past few years. The Padres decided to be the team to give Lugo that shot, signing him in mid-December. Lugo has been a fine reliever but is generally pretty unproven in the rotation. The last time he made more than seven starts in a season was back in 2017.

After that Lugo deal, the Padres had a front-loaded rotation. It was headlined by three great hurlers in Musgrove, Darvish and Snell, but they were followed by two unestablished starters in Lugo and Martinez. They decided to add some security as the offseason went along, eventually adding Michael Wacha, who posted a solid 3.32 ERA last year. He’s no sure thing either, as recurring shoulder issues have prevented him from tossing 130 innings in a season since 2017. But the Friars also added a few strands to the safety net by bringing in Brent Honeywell Jr., Wilmer Font, Cole Hamels and Julio Teheran. Those extra options will likely be important all season long, even in the beginning, as Musgrove recently fractured a toe and seems likely to miss a couple of starts.

The lineup was also in a good place, with Bogaerts joining Soto and Machado as the key threats. The Padres would go on to add some complementary pieces in Carpenter, Engel and then Nelson Cruz. It’s been a rough stretch for Cruz lately, as he struggled with the Rays at the end of 2021 and then hit just .234/.313/.337 for the Nats last year. Given that he’s now 42 years old, it would be fair to wonder if his age was finally catching up with him. However, Cruz underwent eye surgery in the offseason, telling reporters that some inflammation has been blocking his vision over the past year and a half. Perhaps he can bounce back, perhaps not, but the Padres only put down $1MM to find out. If the gamble pays off, it will add yet another potent bat into the mix.

With the calendar showing February and the roster looking fairly set, the focus shifted to long-term concerns. The rotation had some uncertainty over the horizon, as both Darvish and Snell were slated for free agency after 2023. Lugo, Wacha and Martinez also aren’t guaranteed to be back next season, as all three of them either have options or opt-outs that could potentially result in them returning to free agency. That left Musgrove as the only starter locked in for 2024, so the Padres decided to get a bit more clarity by extending Darvish. The deal was surprising in that it came out of nowhere, but also in its length. Darvish is already 36 and his new deal will run past his 42nd birthday. It seems likely that this is a tactic to reduce the club’s competitive balance tax calculation.

We’ll circle back to that CBT conversation in a moment, but the Padres weren’t done with the extensions just yet. Manny Machado still had six years remaining on his ten-year deal, but he had an opt-out opportunity coming up at the end of 2023. Given that he had an MVP-caliber season last year and the new Collective Bargaining Agreement had seemingly improved the free agent market for players, Machado would have been justified in heading back to the open market. He was quite open about his intent to do, but the Padres decided they didn’t want to see that happen and locked him in with a new 11-year, $350MM deal. Since Machado already had six years and $180MM in hand, this tacked on five years and $170MM to prevent him from departing.

This new era of aggressive spending for the Padres has resulted in the club paying the luxury tax in each of the past two years. Their continued spending this year will result in them paying for a third straight season and that will come with elevated tax rates. A third-time payor faces a 50% tax for any spending over the lowest threshold, which is $233MM this year. That jumps to 62% over the $253MM tier and 95% over the $273MM tier. It was reported about a month ago that the Padres were narrowly below that third tier, but that was before the Machado extension came down. His new deal bumped his AAV from $30MM to $31.81MM, perhaps nudging them over that line. If they can manage to get back under the $273MM figure, they’ll avoid the unwelcome penalty of having their top pick in the 2024 draft pushed back 10 spots.

Regardless of which side of that threshold the Padres ultimately fall, it seems the lengthy deals are an attempt to at least moderately mitigate their CBT hits, for this year and the future. As mentioned, the Darvish extension will run past his 42nd birthday, while Bogaerts and Machado will each turn 41 in the final seasons of their respective deals. The annual values on the Bogaerts and Darvish deals, in particular, are lower than the per-year market rate for players of this caliber. Time will tell whether subsequent extensions might follow; the team is reportedly interested in extending both Soto and Hader.

Ultimately, these are all footnotes to the larger story of owner Peter Seidler deciding that he didn’t want the Padres to be a small-market team anymore. The Friars are currently third in the league in terms of both pure payroll and CBT, with only the two New York clubs ahead of them. It’s already resulted in one trip to the NLCS, and the hope is for even more to come. When asked if his spending was sustainable, Seidler told Bob Nightengale of USA Today, he preferred a different question. “Do I believe our parade is going to be on land or on water or on boat?”

How would you grade the Padres’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Padres’ offseason review, we hosted a Padres-focused chat on March 21. You can click here to read the transcript.

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