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Archives for September 2023

Rockies Place Daniel Bard On 15-Day IL, Activate Chase Anderson

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The Rockies announced that right-hander Daniel Bard was placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 2) due to fatigue in his throwing forearm.  Bard’s spot on the active roster will be taken by Chase Anderson, who was activated from the 15-day IL and will start today’s game against the Blue Jays.

There isn’t yet any word on whether Bard’s forearm issue is serious or simply precautionary, though the “fatigue” wording seems to indicate the latter.  Nevertheless, given that it’s already September and that the Rockies are out of contention, it is quite possible the team might shut Bard down for the remainder of the season.

It has been a difficult year on and off the field for Bard, as he missed the first few weeks of the season due to anxiety issues.  While he was thankfully able to return to the mound, his numbers took a big dropoff from his excellent 2022 performance.  Bard has a 4.70 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate, and a whopping 20.8% walk rate over 46 innings this year, with that walk rate standing out as the highest in baseball for any hurler with at least 40 innings pitched.

As of July 25, Bard still had a 2.02 ERA, but a 13.94 ERA over his next 10 1/3 innings threw his season-long numbers into disarray.  This includes seven earned runs over his last two outings, which could be explained by the forearm problem.

Anderson hasn’t pitched since July 22 due to shoulder inflammation, and the veteran righty will now get back on the mound to try and salvage a strong finish to an underwhelming season.  One of many Colorado pitchers to struggle in 2023, Anderson has a 6.63 ERA over 55 2/3 innings since being claimed off waivers from the Rays in May.

Orioles Make Four Roster Moves

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The Orioles announced four roster moves prior to today’s game with the Diamondbacks.  Newly-claimed reliever Jorge Lopez has been officially activated, and right-hander Austin Voth was designated for assignment to create room for Lopez on the 40-man roster.  Baltimore also optioned Colton Cowser to Triple-A, as outfielder Aaron Hicks was activated from the 10-day injured list.

Voth has a 5.19 ERA over 34 2/3 relief innings this season, with a middling 21.3% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate.  His season was interrupted by a stint on the 60-day injured list, as elbow discomfort sidelined Voth from the middle of June to less than two weeks ago.  In two appearances since his activation, Voth tossed two scoreless innings against the Rockies on August 27 but was then tagged for three runs over 1 2/3 frames against the White Sox on August 30.

Between the injury and the inflated ERA, it has been a tough season overall for Voth, who seemed to have turned a corner after the Orioles picked him up from the Nationals on a waiver claim in June 2022.  Voth had been inconsistent at best over five seasons as a starter and reliever in Washington, but then delivered a 3.04 ERA over 83 innings for the O’s last season, starting 17 of 22 games.

It is possible a pitching-needy team might put in a claim on Voth, as experienced arms are harder to come by at this point in the season, even if Voth’s 2023 numbers haven’t been up to par.  If he clears waivers, he could reject an outright assignment and elect free agency since he has over three years of service time. But since he has less than five years of service, he would have to forfeit his remaining salary in order to exercise that right. The O’s signed Voth to an arbitration-avoiding $1.85MM salary for 2023 and the deal contains a $2.45MM club option for 2024 that looks likely to be declined.  If Voth isn’t in the Orioles’ plans for 2024 anyway, Baltimore might choose to release him if he clears waivers, though keeping Voth as extra depth at Triple-A is also a logical move for a team in pennant contention.

Hicks return after missing a little more than two weeks due to a lower back strain.  Speaking of career revivals in Baltimore, Hicks has hit .261/.355/.440 in 155 plate appearances since signing with the O’s in late May — a big improvement over the underwhelming numbers Hicks posted in his final three seasons with the Yankees.  Unfortunately, the injury bug has followed Hicks to his new team, as he has played in just one game since July 24 due to both his back problem and an earlier hamstring injury that also necessitated an IL trip.

Hicks will step back into the Orioles’ outfield/DH mix, and Cowser will head back to Triple-A to await his next taste of the majors.  One of the Orioles’ top prospects and the fifth overall pick of the 2021 draft, Cowser has been crushing minor league pitching but has only a .433 OPS over his first 77 PA at the MLB level.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Unusual, Replacement-Level Season

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The Blue Jays are 1.5 games behind the Rangers for the last AL wild card berth, so it remains quite possible that Toronto could still end up as part of the postseason bracket.  However, simply squeaking into the playoffs wasn’t at all what the Jays envisioned when spending roughly $215MM (a club record) in payroll and surpassing the luxury tax threshold for the first time, as the team fully expected to be contending for a World Series title.

Alek Manoah’s extreme struggles and a lack of bench depth have contributed to the Jays’ underwhelming season, yet the biggest culprit has been a very up-and-down offense.  Though the Blue Jays are actually among the league’s best in getting hits and getting on base, they rank middle of the pack in runs due to an inability to consistently drive in runners in scoring position.  Beyond this specific flaw, the Jays have also gotten disappointing years at the plate from several regulars, and while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has still been above average, his oddity of a season has been pretty symbolic of Toronto’s 2023 campaign as a whole.

“Above average” production and a 112 wRC+ is a perfectly respectable year for most players, yet for Guerrero, it stands out as a red flag.  When that good (.264/.337/.432 with 20 homers over 579 plate appearances) but unspectacular offense is paired with a subpar defensive season, Guerrero has only 0.4 fWAR — among all qualified players in baseball, only 16 players have a lower fWAR than Guerrero’s modest total.

It is an eye-opening statistic, since for all of the money the Blue Jays have invested in building their roster, the team’s plans have been built around the assumption of excellent production from homegrown stars Guerrero and Bo Bichette.  While Bichette has mostly lived up to that billing and has been Toronto’s best player this season, Guerrero suddenly becoming barely a replacement-level player has been a big setback for the Jays.

And yet, a glimpse at Guerrero’s Statcast page would make one think that he is again an MVP candidate.  Guerrero ranks in at least the 89th percentile in such key categories as strikeout rate, hard contact, barrels, expected batting average, expected on-base percentage, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, and xwOBA.  In fact, that latter statistic hints that Guerrero’s relative struggles this season have been due to horrid luck.  No qualified player in baseball has a larger gap between their xwOBA and wOBA than Guerrero, whose elite .379 xwOBA has resulted in a much more modest .332 wOBA.

The sea of red on Guerrero’s Statcast page seemingly indicates that a turn-around is imminent or almost inevitable, and yet as the calendar has now reached September, the first baseman has still yet to get hot for any extended period of time.  Guerrero’s best production came early in the season with an .885 OPS over 127 PA in March and April, but he has hit only .245/.318/.397 over 434 PA since May 5.

Hailed as a future cornerstone superstar and the game’s best prospect during his time in Toronto’s farm system, Guerrero seemed well on his way to living up to the hype with his sensational 2021 campaign.  Guerrero hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers over 698 plate appearances, and likely would’ve won AL MVP honors if it hadn’t been for Shohei Ohtani’s legendary two-way performance.

Rather than build on that big season, Guerrero took a relative step backwards in 2022, hitting .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers over 706 PA.  While not exactly a cause for concern considering that a 132+ wRC is still outstanding, Guerrero’s 2022 numbers revealed some issues that have become larger issues in 2023.  For one, Guerrero’s chase rates and chase contact rates have been well below average in 2022-23, as pitchers have learned that Guerrero is prone to swinging at pitches outside the zone with less-than-stellar results.

While Guerrero doesn’t strike out much, his tendency to chase has led to a lot of his hard-hit balls staying on the ground.  Guerrero has a 47.5% grounder rate this season, and an even 50% grounder rate since the start of the 2022 season — the eighth-highest among qualified hitters in that span.  Between these grounders, Guerrero’s below-average speed, and a .285 BABIP in 2022-23, it perhaps isn’t surprising that Guerrero has hit into 46 double plays since Opening Day 2022, tied for the most of any player in the league.

Guerrero has always had pretty high groundball rates over his five MLB seasons, yet in 2021, his career-best 36.5% fly ball rate resulted in that big 48-homer year.  He has only a 31.9% fly ball rate in the two seasons since, with rather a stark dropoff in overall power.  The first baseman’s Isolated Power metric has gone from .290 in 2021 to .205 last season to .169 this season.

As much as 2021 seemed like the first taste of what Guerrero was “supposed to be” as a budding superstar, it also stands out as an outlier within Guerrero’s five Major League seasons.  It is also worth noting that the 2021 season was also an outlier for the Blue Jays in general, as COVID-related border restrictions kept the team from actually playing in Toronto until the end of July.  Guerrero still had a .935 OPS in 152 PA at Rogers Centre in 2021, though even that impressive total paled in comparison to his numbers at the Blue Jays’ other two home ballparks that season — a 1.418 OPS in 96 PA at the Jays’ spring complex in Dunedin, or his 1.180 OPS in 98 PA at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.

Since the pandemic also forced the Jays to play in Buffalo during the 60-game 2020 season, Guerrero has only played 241 games at his actual home ballpark in his career, and there is evidence that Guerrero has yet to entirely get comfortable at Rogers Centre.  Guerrero has hit .258/.327/.448 over 1024 career PA in Toronto, but his home/road splits have been unusually drastic this season.  Guerrero has only a .691 OPS at Rogers Centre in 2023, as compared to a much more respectable .837 OPS in road games.

The altered dimensions and wall sizes at Rogers Centre this season seems to have had some impact on overall offense, as Statcast’s Park Factor calculations rank Toronto as a slightly below-average hitting environment this season after years of being seen as a park that generally favors hitters.  Of course, there are some on-field factors that go into this calculation, as the reduced offense might have less to do with the ballpark renovations than how the Jays have had a strong defense and good pitching staff this season, or their own lineup’s lack of production.  And, since several other Blue Jays batters are hitting quite well at Rogers Centre, it is hard to pinpoint why Guerrero in particular is struggling so much in his home ballpark.

Beyond offense, Guerrero also hasn’t been helping his cause on defense.  Public defensive metrics (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.3 UZR/150, -14 Outs Above Average) are very down on his glovework, which represents a step back after Guerrero had seemingly been improving as a first baseman in past seasons.  The public metrics have always been somewhat split on Guerrero’s defense, yet DRS gave him plus grades in both 2021 and 2022, while he had a +2.5 UZR/150 in 2021.

Given that he is close to competing his fifth MLB season, it is still almost a surprise to remember that Guerrero won’t turn 25 years old until March, and his prime years might well still be ahead of him.  Of course, this is small consolation to a team built to win right now, and Guerrero’s 2023 season also creates some new questions about his status as a long-term building block.  He is arbitration-controlled for two more seasons and will be due a raise on his $14.5MM salary in 2023, with his early-career success and Super Two status combining to give the first baseman some hefty paydays throughout his arb years.

The question of whether the Blue Jays will sign Guerrero and/or Bichette (or neither) to long-term contract extensions has been a lingering question for years, yet since Bichette is also controlled through 2025, it isn’t necessarily a question the Jays have to face just yet.  However, Guerrero’s 2023 performance is far from the ideal for a franchise player, and as that huge 2021 season gets further in the rearview mirror, the Blue Jays might still not know exactly what they have in Guerrero.

A big September would go a long way towards salvaging this season from a personal perspective and a team perspective if Guerrero can finally break out and carry the Jays into the playoffs.  But, after what has basically been a four-month slump, time is running out for Guerrero to adjust and turn his superb advanced metrics into better real-world results.

The Padres’ Underrated Team MVP

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Not much has gone right for the Padres in 2023. They entered this year as the pre-season favorites for the NL West title, looking as though they were ready to finally assert themselves as the big dog in the National League and dethrone the Dodgers, who have resided comfortable at the front of the pack for most of the past decade. They signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year contract before extending Yu Darvish, Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado on big money deals of their own, signalling they were all-in with the team that had traded for Juan Soto and Josh Hader at 2022’s trade deadline. With Fernando Tatis Jr.’s return to the baseball diamond on the horizon, the future looked bright in San Diego.

Needless to say, things have not gone as planned this season. With a 63-73 record, the Padres are ten games under .500 and in fourth place in the NL West, behind not only the division-leading Dodgers but also both the Giants and Diamondbacks. LA has a stranglehold on the division title at this point, but both San Francisco and Arizona have solid odds at a Wild Card, per Fangraphs: 58.5% and 43.6%, respectively. The Padres, meanwhile, are all but eliminated from postseason contention this year with just a 0.6% chance at a Wild Card berth.

With the notable exceptions of Soto and Hader, the club’s expected stars have faltered this year: Darvish, Bogaerts, Cronenworth and Machado have all had down years to varying degrees after signing those big money deals in the offseason, while Tatis hasn’t looked like the superstar he once seemed to be and right-hander Joe Musgrove has spent much of the season on the injured list. With the exception of lefty Blake Snell, the club’s success stories have largely come by way of their more unheralded players: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have both looked like absolute heists after being plucked from free agency to fill out the rotation, while a catching tandem of post-hype youngster Luis Campusano and minor league addition Gary Sanchez has been quite impressive.

Given that, perhaps it’s no surprise that the team’s MVP isn’t one of their many nine-figure contracts, their shutdown closer, or even Soto and his perennial .400 OBP. Instead, it’s infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who has followed up a major step forward in 2022 with yet another step forward this year to become one of the best infielders in the sport.

Kim first broke into the majors with the Padres back in 2021, after signing a four-year, $28MM deal with the Padres to come over to MLB from the KBO. Kim had been an elite player during his time in Korea, slashing .294/.373/.493 across 7 seasons with the Kiwoom Heroes. He posted a particularly strong platform season before heading overseas, with a .306/.397/.524 slash line in his final season with the Heroes. Unfortunately, he didn’t come particularly close to living up to that promise during his age-25 campaign, his first as a big leaguer. While he played strong defense at second and third base in addition to his home position of shortstop, he posted a meager 72 wRC+, hitting just .202/.270/.352 with a 23.8% strikeout rate, a massive jump from the 10.9% figure he posted in his final year in Korea.

While Kim played in 117 games with San Diego in 2021, he was largely a part-time player, accumulating just 298 plate appearances. Things changed for the youngster in 2022, however. Between the injuries and PED suspension that plagued Tatis, the club’s regular shortstop at the time, Kim was given a full season’s runway at shortstop, and he made the most of it. His offense improved from nearly 30% below league average to slightly above in 2022 as he slashed .251/.325/.383 with a wRC+ of 106. That offensive performance combined with his stellar defense at shortstop and a reduced 17.2% strikeout rate allowed Kim to finish the season with 3.8 fWAR, 11th in the majors among shortstops and not far off from the likes of Nico Hoerner and Carlos Correa.

Kim’s major step forward in 2022 was not enough to guarantee him the everyday shortstop role headed into 2023, however. While Tatis was moved to the outfield during his absence, the club signed Bogaerts to play shortstop, leaving Kim to slide over to second base as Cronenworth moved to cover first following the departure of Josh Bell. While he has spent time elsewhere in the infield while covering for Machado and Bogaerts, over two thirds of Kim’s innings have come at the keystone, where he’s flourished defensively. Kim sports +7 Outs Above Average this season, on par with the likes of Ryan McMahon and Andres Gimenez. Meanwhile, he ranks tied for seventh in the majors with Gimenez on the DRS leaderboard with a sensational +16 figure.

Perhaps even more impressive than Kim’s glovework is the leap forward he’s made on offense. While he made himself a slightly above-average offensive contributor in 2022, he’s made himself an All-Star caliber bat in 2023 with a .277/.367/.434 slash line in 527 trips to the plate this season. While his 18.6% strikeout rate in 2023 is slightly higher than last year’s figure, he’s more than compensated by taking more walks, allowing his 8.8% figure from last season to shoot up to 12.1%, top 20 in the majors. Of the nineteen players with higher walk rates, only Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman, and Adley Rutschman strike out less than Kim, putting him in elite territory when it comes to plate discipline. On top of this improved discipline, Kim has turned himself into a major asset on the basepaths this year, swiping 29 bases in 37 attempts.

Between his defensive prowess and greatly improved offense, Kim has made himself not only the Padres’ team MVP, but one of the most valuable players in the National League. His 4.6 fWAR this season is sixth in the NL, sandwiched between Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll and two-time All Star Matt Olson. When looking at Baseball Reference WAR, Kim is only eclipsed by Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ronald Acuna Jr. among NL players.

While Kim’s standout season hasn’t saved the Padres this year, the 27-year-old could still provide impact for a future playoff chase given that he’s under contract for just $8MM next season. With his contract ending in a mutual option worth $8MM for 2025, Kim seems likely to join Soto in departing for free agency following the 2024 campaign barring an extension. Whether the Padres decide to retool for the future and field offers on their pair of star free-agents-to-be or go all-in for the 2024 season while the duo are still under contract, Kim is a clear player to watch even as the majority of eyes will be focused on Soto’s potential final season in San Diego and impending free agency following the 2024 season.

AL East Notes: Adam, Blue Jays, Wells

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Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Rays right-hander Jason Adam was unavailable during tonight’s 7-6 loss to the Guardians due to an oblique strain that will send him to the injured list. Adam hasn’t pitched since August 27 due to the issue. It’s another devastating injury for Tampa’s pitching staff, which has already lost three of its five opening day rotation members for the season in Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan. Now, the bullpen has lost perhaps its most reliable setup arm for right-hander Pete Fairbanks.

After a sensational 2022 campaign with the Rays where Adam posted a 1.56 ERA in 67 appearances, the 31-year-old righty has taken a step back but is still dominant with a 2.67 ERA in 54 innings this season, 56% better than league average by measure of ERA+. With Adam headed to the IL, it’s fair to wonder if his regular season is in jeopardy, though without confirmation from Rays brass its hard to speculate on a timetable for return given the considerable variance in severity regarding oblique injuries. With Adam headed to the shelf, the Rays figure to rely on Fairbanks, Colin Poche, and Robert Stephenson to cover the late innings, with veteran Andrew Kitteredge as a potential X-factor for the bullpen as he returns from last year’s Tommy John surgery.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays had interested in then-Mets outfielder Mark Canha prior to the trade deadline, when he was ultimately traded to the Brewers. Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, the club considered dealing for an additional bat like Canha or fellow Met Tommy Pham (who was eventually traded to Arizona) before ultimately opting to rely on prospect Davis Schneider to boost the offense down the stretch. While the decision to lean on Schneider looks prescient as the 24-year-old has set the world on fire with a 270 wRC+ in his first 15 games, a bat like Canha or Pham would surely help cover for the loss of Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman to the injured list earlier this week. Nicholson-Smith also notes that the club rebuffed interest from a free agent middle infielder toward the end of August in deference to Ernie Clement, who like Schneider has also delivered in a small sample size since taking over for Bichette at shortstop.
  • Orioles right-hander Tyler Wells is struggling with arm fatigue as he converts to a bullpen role with Triple-A Norfolk, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Jake Rill of MLB.com) today. As Rill notes, Wells last pitched on August 25, with Hyde noting that the righty hasn’t “bounced back” from his last outing as hoped. Wells posted a 3.18 ERA in 104 2/3 innings of work prior to the All Star break but was rocked for 11 runs in nine innings of work in three appearances after the break, prompting the club to demote the 29-year-old hurler for a conversion to the bullpen.

MLB Will Not Alter Pitch Clock Rules For Postseason, Tweaks Triple-A Rules

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MLB’s rule change initiatives headed into 2023 have largely had their intended effects, improving the run scoring environment while cutting down on game times. That being said, those changes haven’t stopped players from hoping that the rules surrounding the pitch clock, which limits pitchers to 15 seconds between pitches with the bases empty and 20 seconds with runners on, would be relaxed somewhat during the postseason given the heightened importance given to each play during a win-or-go-home series.

It seems as though those players will be disappointed, however, as Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci reports that MLB has decided not to adjust the pitch clock during the postseason this year. Per Verducci, the league informed the Competition Committee yesterday that they would not propose any amendments to the rules for postseason play this year. It’s easy to see why the league would be satisfied with the changes and not look to mix things up, given the average game time has dropped from 3:03 in 2022 to just 2:39 this year. While Verducci notes that game times have crept up throughout the year as hitters have increasingly made use of their timeout during plate appearances, August’s average game time of 2:41 is still more than twenty minutes shorter than last year’s average.

While there won’t be changes to the pitch clock this postseason, that doesn’t mean the league isn’t contemplating changes at all. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper recently noted that, starting on September 5, the pitch clock at the Triple-A level will be tweaked significantly. Rather than the previous 14 seconds with the bases empty and 19 seconds with runners on at the level (one second fewer than in the majors in both situations), Triple-A games down the stretch will instead operate with a single, 17-second clock for all situations. Cooper notes that the change is made possible thanks to the level’s widespread use of PitchCom, which allows pitchers and catchers to communicate without the use of signs.

Other, smaller changes at Triple-A are planned as well with an eye toward preventing pitchers and catchers from gaming the pitch clock, such as lowering the number of mound visits. While the changes at the Triple-A level are by no means guaranteed to reach the majors, it’s nonetheless worth noting that the league is still experiment with the specifics of the pitch clock in hopes of further optimizing the rule.

In addition to the incoming pace-of-play related changes, the Triple-A level is also poised to see a change to its ABS system for automating the strike zone. While previously, ABS has used percentages of a hitter’s height to determine the top and bottom limits of the strike zone, that has created issues due to varying body types between players that a human strike zone would normally account for. As such, Cooper relays that going forward the ABS system will be altered to use visual tracking when setting the strike zone to create a custom strike zone for each individual player. While the new strike zone is expected to more closely mimic a human strike zone, the top of the zone will still be lower than the major league strike zone, an intentional feature implemented in hopes of lowering the number of strikeouts on fastballs at the top of the zone.

The change toward an individualized strike zone more akin to the ones created by human umpires seems to be a step in the right direction as people from all sides of the game look toward the possibility of an automated strike zone of some variety reaching the major leagues in the coming years. An automated strike zone wouldn’t necessarily remove the entire human element of calling the strike zone; while half of all Triple-A games are called with a fully automated strike zone, the other half utilize human umpires while offering both pitchers and hitters a challenge system that utilizes the automated strike zone to determine the outcome of the challenge.

West Notes: Scherzer, Trout, Nola, Martinez

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Rangers ace Max Scherzer exited his start against the Twins after six innings yesterday due to what he described to reporters (including Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today) as a “little forearm tightness” and wasn’t sure he’d be able to pitch the seventh. That being said, Scherzer downplayed the severity of the issue, suggesting that his priority is to ensure that the issue doesn’t “turn into a forearm strain or Tommy John.”

Even though Scherzer downplays the issue, it’s surely worrisome for Rangers fans that he’s facing any issue at all. The veteran right-hander has posted a phenomenal 2.21 ERA (198 ERA+) and 2.48 FIP in his first six starts with the club since being acquired from the Mets ahead of the trade deadline back in July. With Jacob deGrom out for the year and Nathan Eovaldi on the injured list already, Scherzer will be key for a Rangers club looking to stay in a three-way race for the AL West crown that they were dominating earlier in the season, to say nothing of his importance as a key cog in their projected postseason rotation alongside fellow deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery. In the event Scherzer misses a start or two while erring on the side of caution regarding his forearm, Texas could turn to right-hander Owen White or lefties Cody Bradford and Martin Perez to fill in for the future Hall of Famer when his turn in the rotation next comes up on Wednesday.

More from MLB’s West divisions…

  • Superstar Mike Trout spoke with reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) regarding the future of the Angels organization this afternoon. Anaheim, of course, waived a number of pending free agents including prized deadline addition Lucas Giolito earlier this week, effectively conceding the 2023 campaign in a failed bid to duck under the luxury tax threshold before the season ends. “There are going to be some conversations in the winter, for sure.” Trout said, “Just to see the direction of everything and what the plan is.” Trout refused to comment on the possibility of a trade when asked if he could imagine a scenario where he would ask to be moved, though with two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani likely departing for free agency this offseason and a protracted rebuild potentially on the horizon for the Angels, it would certainly be understandable if the 32-year-old Trout wished to continue his career elsewhere in hopes of reaching a World Series.
  • Padres catcher Austin Nola has had a brutal year at the plate in 2023, slashing just .146/.260/.192 in 154 trips to the plate with San Diego. An explanation for those struggles has seemingly been uncovered, as Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays that Nola has been diagnosed with oculomotor dysfunction, an issue that impacts the brain’s ability to coordinate eye movement. Nola referenced Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo and his issues with post-concussion syndrome as a catalyst for his decision to discuss symptoms, which included fogginess and headaches, with the Padres. The Padres have been using a catching tandem of Gary Sanchez and Luis Campusano in recent weeks as Nola tried to work things out at the Triple-A level. Nola hopes to return to the field in the minors before the Triple-A season ends on September 24.
  • Dodgers slugger J.D. Martinez is trending toward a return to the big league club next weekend, per the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett. Plunkett relays that Martinez will begin a brief rehab assignment at Triple-A later this week and in the meantime will take swings at Camelback Ranch in Arizona. Martinez, 35, has been on the injured list for the past two weeks due to groin tightness and was slashing .256/.309/.547 with 25 home runs and a 126 wRC+ in 390 trips to the plate before going on the shelf.

Daniel Norris Accepts Outright Assignment

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6:25pm: The Guardians have announced that Norris has accepted the outright assignment to Triple-A.

12:20pm: Daniel Norris has cleared waivers, and the Guardians have outrighted the veteran left-hander off their 40-man roster.  Cleveland designated Norris for assignment earlier this week.

The next step is for Norris to decide whether or not to accept the outright assignment, since he has the option of instead becoming a free agent.  It was less than two weeks ago that Norris took that very path after another outright assignment, but he then quickly re-signed with Cleveland on a new minor league deal.  Since initially signing with the Guardians back in March, Norris has been DFA’ed and outrighted on three different occasions.

Amidst all those transactions, Norris has made seven appearances with the Guards, posting a 5.68 ERA over 12 innings.  Most of the damage came last Monday, when Norris was charged with four earned runs over two innings of relief work in the Guardians’ 10-6 loss to the Twins.  Norris issued more walks (12) than strikeouts (11) over his 12 frames, and he also has a 10.8% walk rate over 53 innings with Triple-A Columbus this season.

While the small sample size of Norris’ MLB work might be an explanation for the spike in walk rate, his control has been a bit more of an issue over the previous two seasons as well — a 7.8% walk rate over Norris’ first 454 career innings from 2014-20 shot up to an 11.8% total in 115 2/3 innings in 2021-22.  Between the walks and home run problems, Norris’ transition to mostly relief pitching hasn’t been too successful, as he has a 5.68 ERA since the start of the 2021 season.

The Guardians’ pitching depth chart has gotten more crowded with all their recent waiver claims, which could lead to Norris testing free agency again if he thinks opportunities might be scarce on the Guards’ big league roster.  If Norris chooses to accept the outright assignment, he’ll provide more depth at the minor league level and will probably still be one of the first arms in line for a call-up should a need arise in Cleveland’s bullpen.

Reds Select Chasen Shreve, Promote Connor Phillips

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves this afternoon. The club placed right-hander Graham Ashcraft of the 15-day IL with a stress reaction in his big toe, placed left-hander Brandon Williamson on the COVID-19 IL, selected the contract of left-hander Chasen Shreve, and added right-hander Connor Phillips to the roster as a substitute player. Players on the COVID-19 IL don’t count against a club’s 40-man roster, so the Reds have plenty of temporary flexibility due to the number of players currently shelved with the virus. As a substitute player, Phillips is only temporarily on the roster and can be returned to the minors without being waived. As the club selected Shreve’s contract, he counts against the club’s 40-man roster in a more permanent fashion, though no corresponding move is needed at this time.

Phillips, 22, will make his major league debut the first time he gets into a game. MLB Pipeline ranks the young right-hander as the club’s fourth best prospect and the 70th best prospect in the sport. He opened the year with a dominant performance at Double-A, posting a 3.34 ERA in 64 2/3 innings of work with an incredible 39.1% strikeout rate. Since receiving a promotion to Triple-A, however, Phillips has begun to struggle. His 40 1/3 innings at the level have yielded a 4.69 ERA, while his strikeout rate has plummeted to 24.2% and his walk rate has ballooned to a massive 16.9%.

Given his age, prospect pedigree and dominance as recently as earlier this season, it’s certainly possible Phillips has a lengthy and successful big league career in his future. In the short-term, however, he’ll need to significantly cut down on the free passes if he hopes to help the 70-67 Reds fight their way into one of the NL Wild Card spots with key pitchers like Williamson and right-hander Hunter Greene out for an unknown amount of time due to the clubhouse’s COVID outbreak.

Shreve, 33, joined the Reds on a minor league deal last month. He had spent the 2023 season with the Tigers prior to that, pitching to a roughly league average 4.79 ERA and 4.06 FIP in 47 appearances with the club. The lefty veteran is in his tenth year as a major league pitcher, with a career 3.88 ERA. While he’s mostly looked the part of a middle reliever throughout his career, it’s worth noting he’s posted a 2.65 ERA with a 34.8% strikeout rate against same-handed hitters this season. With Sam Moll as the only other southpaw in the Cincinnati bullpen as things stand, Shreve seems likely to be able to carve out a specialized role in the Reds’ bullpen going forward.

Joining several of his teammates on the COVID IL is Williamson, who has looked the part of a solid mid-to-back of the rotation starter during his rookie campaign. Across 19 starts with the Reds this year, Williamson has posted a 4.20 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.51 FIP in 98 2/3 innings of work. The loss of a reliable rotation arm like Williamson further compounds the club’s pitching woes. In addition to Greene’s move to the COVID IL, the Reds recently lost any hope of left-hander Nick Lodolo returning this season.

Williamson isn’t the only starter hitting the shelf today, either, as Ashcraft moves to the 15-day IL following his start against the Cubs yesterday, in which he allowed three runs over five innings of work while striking out six. It’s been an up-and-down season for Ashcraft, who dominated to a 2.00 ERA in his first six starts this season before posting a brutal 12.82 ERA over his next eight starts. Since June 30, Ashcraft has posted a 2.58 ERA reminiscent of his strong start to the season, though his 19.8% strikeout rate and eight homers allowed in seven starts both leave his long-term viability as a rotation arm in question. Overall, he’s delivered a 4.76 ERA and 5.07 FIP in 145 2/3 innings of work this season.

Without Williamson and Ashcraft, the club’s rotation is facing a great deal of uncertainty, with only rookie Andrew Abbott as a surefire big league starter on the roster. Lyon Richardson took the ball against the Cubs for the second game of a doubleheader last night, but sports an ugly 6.75 ERA across three starts in the majors. The club will likely have to turn to the likes of Double-A swingman Carson Spiers and journeyman Brett Kennedy to take on innings with most of the club’s rotation out of commission.

Tigers Notes: Turnbull, Greene, Baez

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Tigers right-hander Spencer Turnbull was scratched from a start with Triple-A Toledo yesterday, as noted by Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, due to a cracked toenail. It’s another setback in what has been a brutal season for Turnbull as he returns to the mound for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery early in the 2021 campaign.

McCosky adds that the relationship between Turnbull and the organization has deteriorated significantly throughout the 2023 season. Turnbull posted a brutal 7.26 ERA and 5.55 FIP in 31 innings of work across seven starts earlier in the season before the Tigers attempted to option him to Triple-A. Upon being optioned, Turnbull disclosed some neck discomfort to the Tigers and visits with doctors led to the club placing Turnbull on the injured list in early May. Turnbull posted a 7.71 ERA in four rehab starts with Toledo before being activated from the IL toward the end of August and was immediately optioned to Triple-A. Yesterday would have marked Turnbull’s first appearance since being activated and optioned.

There are plenty of contractual nuances to the situation. Turnbull is currently just six days short of reaching five years of MLB service time, at which point the club would no longer be able to option him to Triple-A without his consent. If he remains in the minors through the end of the 2023 season, his free agency would then be delayed until after the 2025 campaign. Of course, it’s possible that between Turnbull’s difficult 2023 campaign and the decaying relationship between club and player, the Tigers could opt not to tender him a contract for the 2024 campaign.

McCosky indicates that Turnbull is “most likely” seeking independent medical counsel, though he also suggests that the Tigers may not accept that counsel. If tensions continue to rise, the Tigers could place Turnbull on the restricted list. Turnbull, who would not accrue MLB service time or be paid during a stint on the restricted list, could then file a grievance against the Tigers in response.

More from Detroit…

  • The Tigers placed outfielder Riley Greene on the 10-day IL this afternoon with elbow inflammation. As noted by Jason Beck of MLB.com, Greene is dealing with swelling and soreness in his elbow following a diving catch during last night’s game against the White Sox. Greene will undergo an MRI in 7-10 days to determine the severity of the issue, though with the season’s final month upon us and the Tigers all but guaranteed to miss the postseason, it’s fair to wonder if the injury brings an end to Greene’s 2023 campaign. Greene’s played well in his sophomore season as a major leaguer, combining strong outfield defense with a .288/.349/.447 slash line (119 wRC+) in 416 trips to the plate this year.
  • McCosky also relayed recent comments from manager AJ Hinch regarding shortstop Javier Baez’s playing time going forward. Hinch admitted to reporters that playing time would be “at a premium” going forward with the expanded rosters, and that as a result Baez will “play a little more sporadically than we’re used to” going forward. Baez landed with Detroit prior to the 2022 season on a six-year, $140MM contract that has the look of an albatross nearly two years in. In 262 games since joining the Tigers, Baez has slashed just .229/.271/.360 with a wRC+ of 74. While he’s largely posted strong defensive marks during his time in Detroit, Baez’s days as an offensive contributor and above-average regular with Chicago (113 wRC+ from 2018 to 2021) seem to be behind him, and a reduction in playing time could make sense for the 30-year-old veteran as the Tigers continue to look toward the future.

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