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The Opener: Betts, Royals, Means

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As the 2023 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Betts on crutches:

The Dodgers are facing an injury scare with superstar Mookie Betts, as Isaac Azout of Fish On First noted last night that the MVP candidate left loanDepot Park on crutches. Jack Harris of the L.A. Times echoed that report while also indicating that Betts underwent x-rays on his foot after fouling a pitch off of it earlier in the game. Those x-rays came back negative, with MLB.com’s Juan Toribio indicating that they were precautionary. Betts will be re-evaluated today.

With so little time left in the regular season, even a fairly short absence would impact both the NL MVP race and the Dodgers’ odds of catching the Braves for the top seed in the NL this postseason. Betts, teammate Freddie Freeman, and Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. are the favorites in the Senior Circuit’s Most Valuable Player race. Betts trails only Shohei Ohtani in wins above replacement this year, per both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, thanks to his sensational .314/.411/.609 batting line, 38 home runs and solid defense around the diamond (right field, second base, shortstop). Acuna is hitting .331/.411/.579 and is the first player to ever hit 30 home runs and steal 60 bases in the same season.

From a team vantage point, an absence of any note would be devastating for a Dodgers club that has leaned heavily on Betts and Freeman for offensive production throughout the season; the duo have combined for a whopping 14.7 fWAR this year, while the rest of L.A.’s 23 total position players used this season have combined for 15.0 fWAR.

2. Royals roster move incoming:

The Royals transferred lefty Daniel Lynch to the 60-day injured list yesterday and optioned infielder Matt Beaty to Triple-A yesterday, creating openings on both the 40-man and active roster. With a roster move necessary before tonight’s game in Toronto and 60-day IL moves typically followed by a corresponding 40-man addition, Kansas City seems likely add a player to the 40-man today. That could be an activation from the 60-day IL like right-hander Brad Keller, or it could be a contract selection of a player in the minors. Of course, it’s also possible that the club could leave the 40-man roster spot open and simply activate Nick Pratto from the 10-day IL to replace Beaty on the roster. Both Keller and Pratto have been on rehab assignments since August.

3. Means to be activated this weekend:

As noted on MLB.com, the Orioles intend to move to a six-man rotation upon the return left-hander John Means, whom Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun indicates will be activated off the 60-day injured list at some point this weekend. The Orioles have announced Kyle Bradish, Jack Flaherty, and Grayson Rodriguez as the starters for the club’s series in Boston this weekend, so it’s possible Means will pitch out of the bullpen as a long reliever rather than join the club’s rotation. Whatever role Means fills, he figures to help boost an Orioles pitching staff that recently lost closer Felix Bautista to injury and is looking to keep starters like Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kyle Gibson healthy ahead of the postseason.

Rockies Outright Coco Montes

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The Rockies have sent infielder Coco Montes outright to Triple-A Albuquerque, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment on Tuesday and apparently went unclaimed on waivers.

Montes, 27 next month, made his MLB debut with the Rox this season. He appeared in 18 games, hitting .184/.244/.316 through his first 41 trips to the plate. Montes saw most of his limited action at second base while the club was without Brendan Rodgers.

The former 15th round pick has played the majority of the year on optional assignment to Albuquerque. He’s hitting well, even in the context of a very hitter-friendly setting. Montes has hit .313/.397/.550 with 19 homers over 443 plate appearances. He’s striking out in just over a quarter of his trips but has walked at a strong 11.3% clip.

This is Montes’ first career outright assignment. He doesn’t have the service time to elect free agency, so he’ll remain in the organization and try to play his way back onto the Colorado roster.

MLB Teams Scouting Kazuma Okamoto

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9:52pm: Morosi now reports that Okamoto isn’t on track to surpass the nine-year NPB service threshold for international free agency until the 2026-27 offseason. While the Giants could ostensibly still make him available via the posting system, there’s not much incentive for them to do so until after the ’25 campaign.

9:48pm: Yomiuri Giants corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto is on the radar of major league clubs, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi doesn’t cite any specific MLB teams with interest but notes that clubs have been evaluating the 27-year-old in case he becomes available during the upcoming offseason.

Okamoto has played parts of nine seasons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He wasn’t established at the NPB level until 2018, however, so he’ll still have less than nine full seasons of NPB service time. As a result, he won’t be eligible for unrestricted international free agency until the 2024-25 offseason.

It’s not uncommon for NPB teams to make a player available to MLB clubs the winter before their free agent year via the posting system. That’d entitle the NPB club to compensation, as a signing MLB organization has to pay a release fee to the NPB team to sign a player who’d been posted. If the NPB team waits until the player hits international free agency, they’d receive no money if he departs.

The Giants previously posted Shun Yamaguchi, paving the way for him to sign with the Blue Jays during the 2019-20 offseason. They made Tomoyuki Sugano available via the posting system the ensuing offseason, though he eventually re-signed with Yomiuri and has never made the jump to MLB. Whether they’d be willing to make Okamoto available is unclear.

If he hits the market, Okamoto would be an intriguing upside play in a class light on bats. He’s raking at a .301/.393/.627 clip over 504 plate appearances this season. He has already connected on 37 home runs, leading qualified NPB hitters by 11 longballs. He unsurprisingly also tops the league in slugging and ranks fifth in on-base percentage.

Okamoto has established himself as one of Japan’s more consistent power bats. He has eclipsed 30 homers in six straight seasons. This is trending as a career year — he had a comparatively modest .252/.336/.469 slash a season ago — but he clearly brings right-handed power. Okamoto represented Japan in this year’s World Baseball Classic, connecting on a homer off Kyle Freeland in an eventual 3-2 win in the championship.

Angels Select Jhonathan Diaz

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The Angels announced they’ve selected left-hander Jhonathan Diaz onto the big league roster. Gerardo Reyes was optioned to Triple-A Salt Lake in a corresponding move. The Halos already had three vacancies on the 40-man roster.

Diaz will get the start tonight against the Guardians. It’s his first MLB appearance of the season. The Venezuelan-born hurler pitched in seven games (starting five) between 2021-22. He owns a 3.49 ERA in 28 1/3 MLB frames but has only struck out 16% of opponents while walking nearly 14% of batters faced.

The Angels declined to tender Diaz a contract last offseason. That took him off the 40-man roster, but he returned to the club on a minor league pact. Diaz has logged 87 innings over 38 appearances (including eight starts) in Salt Lake. He owns a 4.55 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Diaz’s 21.1% strikeout percentage and 11.5% walk rate are each worse than average, though he’s keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 48% clip.

Diaz still has all three option years remaining, so the Angels can shuttle him between Orange County and Salt Lake for the foreseeable future if they keep him on the 40-man roster. He’ll try to stake a claim to a spot heading into the winter.

Michael Mariot Accepts Outright Assignment With Reds

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Right-hander Michael Mariot has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Louisville, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The righty had been designated for assignment earlier this week.

The Reds have been dealing with a number of injuries to their pitching staff this year and saw that problem become exacerbated by an outbreak of COVID-19, which added four more pitchers to the injured list. To try to combat those absences, the Reds have been making moves almost daily to supply fresh arms to the roster.

Mariot, 34, was one of those fresh arms, getting selected to the roster earlier this week. He made one appearance for the Reds, tossing 2 2/3 innings in Monday’s game, allowing one earned run. That was his first major league appearance in many years, as his previous big league experience was with the Royals and Phillies from 2014 to 2016. He now has a combined major league ERA of 5.85 in 52 1/3 innings for his career.

After clearing waivers, Mariot could have rejected this assignment and elected free agency, though finding a better opportunity would have been challenging. Since it is after September 1, Mariot would not have been postseason eligible if he signed with any new club. Instead, he’ll stick with the Reds and serve as some non-roster depth as they continue their playoff push. They are currently half a game back of the Marlins for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

Since his last appearance in the big leagues, Mariot bounced around on various minor league deals, in addition to playing in the Mexican League and the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan. He started 2023 with the Cleburne Railroaders of the independent American Association of Professional Baseball, striking out 29 opponents in 26 2/3 innings. That led to a minor league deal with the Reds and 37 2/3 innings for the Bats with a 6.93 ERA.

D-Backs Promote Jordan Lawlar

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September 7: The Diamondbacks have now made Lawlar’s promotion official, announced that move and Ahmed’s DFA today. They also activated catcher Seby Zavala, claimed off waivers this week, and recalled right-hander Ryne Nelson. Catcher José Herrera and right-hander Bryce Jarvis were optioned in corresponding moves for Zavala and Nelson.

September 6: The Diamondbacks are calling up top infield prospect Jordan Lawlar, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link). They’ll presumably make the move official tomorrow in advance of a pivotal four-game series against the Cubs. Arizona is designating Nick Ahmed for assignment in a corresponding move.

Lawlar seems likely to take over as the primary third baseman. Piecoro wrote this afternoon that the Snakes were considering him as an option at the hot corner. Lawlar made his first professional start there with Triple-A Reno last night. That’s obviously a very limited look, but teams generally feel comfortable moving shortstops to other infield positions.

A Dallas native, Lawlar was regarded as one of the top prospects in the 2021 draft class coming out of high school. He somewhat surprisingly lasted until the sixth pick, though Arizona went above slot with the third-highest signing bonus to add him to the system.

Lawlar’s draft season was cut short by an injury to his left shoulder, which required surgery. He didn’t show any signs of rust the following year, though. The right-handed hitter put together a .303/.401/.509 batting line in his first full professional season. He reached Double-A Amarillo late last year, an impressive achievement for a player who had just turned 20 years old.

That huge showing cemented Lawlar’s status as one of the sport’s most talented prospects. Arizona assigned him back to Amarillo to begin the 2023 campaign. He started relatively slowly but has caught fire since the weather warmed up. Lawlar has an OPS north of .900 in the minors for each month since June. He hit .263/.366/.474 in 410 Double-A plate appearances overall to earn a bump to Reno in mid-August. Lawlar has only appeared in 16 games there, mashing at a .358/.438/.612 clip.

While he’s had the benefit of playing in favorable hitting environments, Lawlar’s cumulative .278/.378/.496 line on the year is strong. He’s walking at a quality 11.4% clip against a decent 20.6% strikeout rate. He has popped 20 homers, 23 doubles and four triples and gone 36-41 in stolen base attempts.

Baseball America recently slotted Lawlar as the sport’s #9 overall prospect, while Kiley McDaniel of ESPN placed him 25th. As his numbers indicate, he’s generally viewed as a well-rounded player with solid tools across the board. McDaniel suggests that a lack of a standout carrying tool could keep Lawlar more as a quality regular than a true star. Even if Lawlar doesn’t have quite the same upside as some top prospects, most evaluators seem confident in him being a productive everyday player at the major league level.

Whether that’ll be the case immediately could have an impact on this year’s playoff picture. Arizona beat Colorado this afternoon and remains tied with Miami, half a game behind the Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Cubs occupy the second Wild Card position, so Arizona has a chance to directly make up ground when they head to Wrigley.

There’s risk with any prospect, particularly one who only has a year and a half of minor league reps under his belt. Yet Lawlar brings more offensive upside than Arizona’s current third base mix. The Snakes have used a combination of Jace Peterson, Emmanuel Rivera and occasionally Evan Longoria at the hot corner. While Rivera had played reasonably well early in the season, they’ve gotten almost nothing out of the position lately. Arizona third basemen are hitting .195/.298/.305 since the All-Star Break.

Geraldo Perdomo has also cooled off at shortstop after an All-Star first half. Yet he’s playing well enough overall to keep the hold onto that job, seemingly pushing Lawlar to the other left side infield position for now. It stands to reason Arizona still views Lawlar as a shortstop option if Perdomo gets injured or goes through an extended slump.

He’ll retain his rookie eligibility going into next season. If the D-Backs carry him for a full service year, Lawlar could net them an extra draft choice if he plays well enough to win Rookie of the Year or finish top three in MVP balloting during his pre-arbitration seasons. That’s a much further off possibility. For now, his focus will be on trying to help a young and increasingly exciting Arizona team to the postseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Multiple Clubs Had Pre-Deadline Interest In Tommy Pham

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Outfielder Tommy Pham was traded from the Mets to the Diamondbacks prior to the trade deadline but seemingly had plenty of interest around the league. Per a report from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Twins, Yankees, Dodgers, Rays and Padres all had interest in him. That’s in addition to reported interest from other clubs, such as the Blue Jays, Rangers and Phillies.

Pham, 35, has had many strong seasons in his career but has been a bit inconsistent of late. From 2015 to 2019, he hit a combined .277/.373/.472 for a wRC+ of 130, producing above-average offense in each individual season. He struggled in 2020 by hitting .211/.312/.312, but there were reasons to expect that was a blip. That year was played in the unusual circumstances of the pandemic, with the season shortened to just 60 games. Pham also suffered a fractured hamate that year and only played 31 of those 60 contests.

He was able to get back on track somewhat in 2021, with a line of .229/.340/.383. Buoyed by a 13.9% walk rate, his wRC+ was 103, indicating he was 3% above league average. But last year, that walk rate dipped to 9% and his line of .236/.312/.374 resulted in a wRC+ of 90.

On the heels of that down year, the Mets were able to sign him to a one-year deal with a modest $6MM guarantee. They were likely intrigued by Pham’s continued excellent with the platoon advantage, as he still hit .273/.338/.446 against lefties despite the subpar season overall in 2022. That’s long been a strength for him, as he’s hit .271/.382/.456 against southpaws for his career as a whole.

The Mets were rewarded by seeing Pham bounce back into good form. In 79 games as a Met, he hit .268/.348/.472 for a wRC+ of 125, and he wasn’t limited to platoon work either. He produced solid work regardless of who was on the mound, slashing .255/.339/.532 against lefties and .277/.355/.431 versus righties. He hasn’t quite been able to carry that over to his new club, hitting .243/.290/.417 while striking out in a quarter of his trips to the plate. Although he was walking at an 11% clip with the Mets, that rate has dropped to just 5.6% with Arizona.

The fact that Pham had such widespread interest prior to the deadline would seem to bode well for him this winter. Even with his dip in results since the deal, his season-long offense translates to a wRC+ of 113, his highest such figure since 2019. His Statcast page features plenty of red, as he is in the 94th percentile in terms of average exit velocity and 92nd in hard hit rate. He’s also stolen 17 bases so far this year and is considered around league average in the field by both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

What might help Pham, beyond his own results, is the relative lack of impact bats available this winter. The upcoming free agent class leans heavily to the pitching side, which could give Pham and other hitters some leverage in finding deals to their liking.

Turning to those specific teams mentioned in today’s report, the Twins will have plenty of left-handed bats in their corner outfield/designated hitter mix next year, including Max Kepler, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, Alex Kirilloff, Andrew Stevenson and Trevor Larnach. The Rays love to play matchups and could fit Pham into a platoon with lefties like Josh Lowe, Luke Raley or Jonathan Aranda. The Yankees are currently giving playing time to younger guys like Jasson Domínguez and Everson Pereira but might want to add some veteran presence for next year. The Dodgers are about to see both David Peralta and Jason Heyward become free agents. The Padres have three outfielders in Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto and Trent Grisham but designated hitter has been a big hole all year thanks to the struggles of players like Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter.

Padres Claim Glenn Otto, Designate Ben Gamel

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The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve claimed righty Glenn Otto off waivers from the Rangers, who designated him for assignment earlier in the week. San Diego designated outfielder Ben Gamel for assignment in a corresponding move.

Otto, 27, was a fifth-round pick by the Yankees out of Rice University back in 2017. He went to the Rangers alongside Ezequiel Duran and Josh H. Smith in the 2021 trade that sent Joey Gallo from Arlington to the Bronx.

At the time of the swap, Otto was one of the more well-regarded prospects in the Yankees’ system, ranking 19th on New York’s top-30 list at Baseball America. He placed 15th among Rangers’ farmhands heading into the 2022 season, with BA labeling him a potential fourth starter who could likely be moved to the ’pen if things didn’t pan out in the rotation.

Otto has gotten looks in the Majors in each of the past three seasons with Texas, but he’s yet to find his footing. While the right-hander tossed 135 2/3 innings over 27 starts last year, he posted a rather pedestrian 4.64 ERA and fanned just 18.2% of his opponents against an unpalatable 10.6% walk rate along the way. He also struggled in six starts down the stretch following the trade in 2021, and he was hit hard in six bullpen appearances this year. Overall, Otto has pitched 169 2/3 innings in the Majors but carries just a 5.69 ERA with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates (in addition to a roughly average ground-ball rate).

That said, there’s plenty in Otto’s minor league track record to give the Friars some optimism. He posted a strong 3.20 ERA in 96 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A during the 2021 season that saw him traded, and that year’s 35.3% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate in the minors were both excellent. Otto has never posted an ERA higher than 3.48 at any minor league level, and he’s punched out 32% of his total opponents in the minors.

Otto missed the first three months of the 2023 season due to a lat injury, so he’s pitched just 40 total innings this year. While his 10.13 ERA in the big leagues (12 runs in 10 2/3 frames) is an eyesore, he’s also posted a sharp 3.38 ERA with his typically promising strikeout tendencies (32.5%) in 29 1/3 Triple-A frames. Otto also has a pair of minor league option years remaining beyond the current season, plus an additional five years of team control remaining. Given that context, it’s not a surprise to see a Padres club that could lose a good bit of pitching depth this winter take a more or less free look at the former prospect.

San Diego, after all, could see each of Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and Nick Martinez reach free agency this winter, either via the expiration of their current contracts or via opt-outs/player options that could be declined. The Padres aren’t going to firmly bank on Otto replacing anyone from that group, but he’s a controllable depth option who could earn his way into the mix and help patch some of those gaps. If nothing else, he could be called upon as a spot starter or extra bullpen arm next year in the event of injuries on the MLB roster.

As for the 31-year-old Gamel, he appeared in just six games with the Padres before today’s DFA. The veteran outfielder has been quite good between the Triple-A affiliates for San Diego and Tampa Bay, batting a combined .286/.402/.498 in 332 plate appearances, but the Friars are prepared to cut ties after just 15 plate appearances, during which Gamel collected three hits (two singles, one double).

In parts of eight Major League seasons between the Mariners, Pirates, Brewers, Padres, Guardians and Yankees, Gamel is a .252/.332/.384 hitter. He’s drawn walks at a healthy 10.1% clip but also fanned in just under a quarter of his plate appearances. Gamel is primarily a corner outfielder but lacks the prototypical power associated with those positions, evidenced by a career-high 11 home runs and a tepid .131 ISO in his career (slugging percentage minus batting average). Now that Gamel has been designated for assignment, the Padres will place him on outright waivers or release waivers within the next five days.

Angels To Recall Davis Daniel For MLB Debut

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The Angels are planning to recall right-hander Davis Daniel prior to today’s game, reports Sam Blum of The Athletic. The Halos currently have tonight’s starter listed as TBD, so it would seem the 26-year-old Daniel is in position to make his big league debut.

A seventh-round pick back in 2019, Davis originally had his contract selected to the big league roster last summer but didn’t appear in a game before being optioned back to Triple-A Salt Lake. He’s spent the bulk of the season on the injured list due to a shoulder strain but returned to the mound in early August. He’s worked 25 1/3 innings between rehab stints with the Angels’ Rookie-ball and Class-A affiliates, pitching to a 1.78 ERA with an outstanding 37-to-5 K/BB ratio in that time (against much younger and less experienced competition, of course).

While Daniel has spent this year rehabbing and facing only lower-level minor leaguers as he ramps back up, he did log 102 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level a year ago. In that time, he pitched to a 4.49 ERA in a very hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League environment, striking out 19.4% of his opponents against a 7.5% walk rate.

Daniel ranked among the Angels’ top 30 prospects on most publications heading into the 2022 season, but his velocity and strikeouts were down last year — and this year’s shoulder strain has only further led to concern. Injuries have been an issue for the former Auburn hurler, who also had Tommy John surgery during his draft season. Davis no longer ranks within the Angels’ top 30 prospects at either MLB.com or Baseball America, but FanGraphs tabs him 21st among Anaheim farmhands.

Daniel is fully rested and is stretched out to the point where he’s a clear option to start tonight’s game. He pitched 5 1/3 innings in his most recent start on Aug. 29, and he went six innings and five innings, respectively, in his two starts prior to that outing. He could also provide bulk innings behind an opener if the Halos choose to go that route. That’s not a tactic they’ve used in 2023, but they did turn to openers and bullpen games on occasion last year.

Royals Transfer Daniel Lynch To 60-Day IL

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The Royals announced yesterday that they’ve transferred left-hander Daniel Lynch from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list, opening a spot on their 40-man roster. Kansas City followed that announcement by announcing Thursday (an off-day for them) that first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty has been optioned to Triple-A Omaha. An additional roster move is forthcoming tomorrow, per the team.

Generally speaking, transfers to the 60-day IL are accompanied by corresponding 40-man moves, so it’s feasible that Kansas City will have such a move to make tomorrow. Right-hander Brad Keller, out since May due to a shoulder impingement, has been on a minor league rehab assignment for three weeks and could be an option to return (speculatively speaking). He’s been working out of the bullpen in Double-A and pitched two innings on Monday. Keller still has a week left on his rehab window, however, so the Royals could delay that move and select the contract of prospect or perhaps make an external addition via waivers or free agency. Kansas City’s starting pitcher for Friday’s game in Toronto is currently listed as TBD.

Lynch, 26, has been out since mid-July with a left shoulder strain. The move to the 60-day injured list is largely procedural. He hasn’t yet begun a minor league rehab stint and had already been on the injured list for 50 days (51 now), so it’s highly unlikely he’d have returned before reaching the 60-day mark anyhow. (The 60-day term on such IL stints is retroactive to the original placement on the injured list and does not reset when a player is transferred to the lengthier IL designation.) Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that Lynch is slated to begin pitching live batting practice this week, so it seems there’s still a chance he could return before season’s end.

Selected with the No. 34 overall pick in 2018, Lynch was one of several college arms (joining Brady Singer, Kris Bubic and Jackson Kowar) on whom the Royals were banking to quickly turn the tides on their big league roster. The lefty ranked among baseball’s top pitching prospects prior to his 2021 debut but has yet to solidify himself as a staple in the Kansas City rotation.

Lynch opened the season on the injured list with a strained rotator cuff, returned in late May and made nine starts prior to returning to the 15-day IL. The 92.8 mph average velocity on his fastball was noticeably down from the 94.2 mph he averaged in 2022. In those nine starts, he pitched 52 1/3 innings of 4.64 ERA ball, striking out just 15.2% of his opponents against a sharp 7.2% walk rate.

That’s among the best stretches of Lynch’s career to date. He has an excellent but brief stretch last summer, tossing eight starts with a 3.18 ERA from June 17 through Aug. 17, but that was bookended by a poor start to the year (5.50 ERA in 54 frames) and an even rockier finish (6.63 ERA in 38 innings). Overall, Lynch has made 51 big league starts and pitched 252 innings with a 5.18 ERA, 18.6% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate.

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