Archives for 2023

The Giants announced that they have agreed to a five-year, $90MM extension with right-hander Logan Webb. Webb will make $8MM next year, $12MM in 2025, $23MM in both 2026 and 2027, then $24MM in 2028. Webb, an ACES client, had previously been slated to reach the open market after 2025, so this deal buys out three free agent years.

Webb, 26, was selected by the Giants in the fourth round of the 2014 draft. His path to establishing himself as a big league starter was tumultuous, as he had Tommy John surgery in 2016 and received an 80-game suspension in 2019 due to a positive test for the banned performance-enhancing substance Dehydrochlormethyltestosterone. He then struggled in his first tastes of the majors, with a 5.22 ERA in eight starts in 2019 and a 5.47 ERA in the shortened 2020 season.

2021, however, was a huge breakout for the righty. He made 26 starts and one relief appearance, eventually logging 148 1/3 innings with a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 26.5% of batters faced while walking just 6%. He also got ground balls at an incredible 60.9% of balls in play, the highest such rate of any pitcher with at least 140 innings pitched that season. Last year, he proved that it was no fluke, throwing 192 1/3 innings over 32 starts, dropping his ERA to 2.90. His strikeout rate dropped to 20.7% but he still got grounders at an excellent 56.7% clip. He finished 11th the National League Cy Young voting.

In addition to establishing himself as the ace of the staff in San Francisco, Webb also crossed the three-year service time mark last year. That allowed him to go through the arbitration process for the first time, with he and the club settling on a $4.6MM salary. He would have been able to go through that two more times but it seems there was mutual interest in getting a long-term deal done instead. It was reported back in February that he and the club had previously had some extension talks, though a deal didn’t get done until today.

Looking to some recent comparables for pitchers in this bracket suggests that Webb did quite well for himself with this deal. Aaron Nola was between three and four years of service when he and the Phillies agreed to a four-year, $45MM deal with a club option. Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins agreed at five years and $56MM with a club option when he was in the same service bucket. Cristian Javier recently set a service record for pitchers between three and four years when he landed a five-year, $64MM guarantee. Webb’s deal trounces that number, although it’s not a perfect comparison, as Webb already had a salary locked in for this year and his new deal doesn’t start until 2024.

Looking to pitchers in between four and five years of service makes it harder to find a great comp. Jeffrey Springs and Chris Paddack recently signed deals in that window, though the Paddack was just embarking on rehab from Tommy John surgery while Springs had only recently moved from the bullpen to starting. In recent years, the Rockies gave five-year deals to both Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela, though neither pitcher is as good as Webb. Jacob deGrom got four years and $120.5MM from the Mets a few years ago, though he was coming off an otherworldly season where he posted a 1.70 ERA while striking out 32.2% of batters faced. However you want to slice it, Webb’s extension stacks up quite favorably when viewed through a historical lens, either topping all three-plus pitchers or falling shy of only deGrom among four-plus pitchers.

Had Webb gone year to year, he would have been a free agent after 2025, his age-28 season. If he continued performing as he has in the past two seasons, he likely could have topped the $70MM he now has locked in for his post-arb years. Even mid-rotation starters like Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon got guarantees in that range this past winter. However, there’s always the risk that injuries or underperformance could have dealt a blow to his earning power in between now and then. Instead, he locks in a decent chunk of change and is still slated to reach the open market after his age-31 season, when he could potentially still be highly sought after, depending on his performance between now and then.

For the Giants, they are betting that Webb will indeed continue to serve a top-of-the-line arm. They don’t have a lot of long-term certainty in their rotation, as they’ve largely relied upon short-term deals for mid-range starters in recent years. Anthony DeSclafani signed a one-year deal for 2021 and then re-signed on a three-year pact that goes through 2024. Alex Wood and Alex Cobb are each in the final season of their respective two-year deals, though the club has a 2024 option for Cobb. Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling each signed two-year deals in the most recent offseason, but they both will have opt-out opportunities in a few months. That gives the club plenty of solid options right now, but all of those guys are in their 30s and potentially departing this year or next. Prior to this deal, Webb would have been slated to follow them out the door not long after, but the Giants can now keep him around through 2028.

The Giants have mostly kept themselves to those short-term deals in recent years, not exactly on purpose. They made attempts to sign marquee players like Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa, though those deals didn’t end up coming to fruition. That’s been a source of frustration for many fans, but the upside is that their long-term slate is quite open. Webb now joins Mitch Haniger and Taylor Rogers as the only players locked in for 2025, though Wilmer Flores does have a modest player option for that season as well.

They’ve used some of that payroll flexibility to lock up Webb, who is now the only player written into the ledger for 2026 and beyond. There should still be plenty of room to add other significant salaries next to Webb going forward. After a disappointing 81-81 season last year that followed the 107-win campaign of 2021, the Giants are hoping for better here in 2023. Whether they succeed or not, they have plenty of financial wiggle room to be aggressive in offseasons to come.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.