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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook

Trade Deadline Outlook: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | June 30, 2025 at 7:00pm CDT

The White Sox are next up in MLBTR's new Trade Deadline Outlook series.  After losing a modern-day record 121 games last year, the Sox are on pace to lose "only" 108 this year.  The Pale Hose remain firmly in the "clear seller" group as one of six teams with less than a 1% shot at reaching the playoffs.

White Sox executive vice president/general manager Chris Getz took over after the 2023 trade deadline, so this is only his second time being in the top chair for the event.  Last summer, Getz packaged several of his top assets together in Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, and Tommy Pham, netting Miguel Vargas as the headliner.  That trade looked rough out of the gate, as Vargas was one of the game's worst players after joining the White Sox.  The 25-year-old somewhat redeemed himself with a hot May this year.

Getz held out until the offseason to move lefty Garrett Crochet, drawing better reviews for that deal.  While the four-player return on that trade looks promising, it may still be painful to see Crochet locked up through 2031 and vying for the AL Cy Young award.  That deal will take years to truly evaluate, but as we look ahead to July, the question for the White Sox is whether they have anything valuable left to trade.

Record: 28-56 (0.0% playoff probability)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Aaron Civale, Martin Perez, Adrian Houser, Tyler Alexander, Michael A. Taylor, Austin Slater

Civale was picked up from the Brewers in a one-for-one swap on June 13th for Andrew Vaughn.  Perhaps it was a bit of a monkey's paw situation for the 30-year-old Civale, who requested a trade from the contending Brewers upon being moved to the bullpen, only to land in the rotation of the rebuilding White Sox.

Civale was hoping to maintain his earning power as a starting pitcher, though it's unclear he's helped his case in a small three-start sample with Chicago.  On the season, he's got a well-deserved 4.74 ERA in eight starts, having missed over a month with a hamstring strain.  He's been unable to miss bats this year and his homer-prone tendencies have continued.

The White Sox had nothing to lose by acquiring Civale, in that they were highly likely to non-tender Vaughn after the season.  But as an $8MM back of the rotation guy, Civale won't be making playoff starts in October and won't bring more than a low-level prospect.  Potential suitors may want some help with his salary.

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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Chicago White Sox Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Uncategorized

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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Series

By Mark Polishuk | June 28, 2025 at 8:40am CDT

MLB Trade Rumors has debuted a new feature for Front Office subscribers with our Trade Deadline Outlook series.  In advance of the July 31 trade deadline, we’re looking at what each of the 30 teams may have in store for their roster construction plans.  This entails buying, selling, or something in between as teams vary between all-in pushes for the 2025 World Series or more long-term looks towards building for the future.

We’ve started by writing about the most clear-cut buyers and sellers, and we’ll turn our attention to the more borderline teams in the mix as July develops.  This landing page will contain the links to every Trade Deadline Outlook post, so be sure to keep checking to see when your favorite team has been featured.

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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

By Anthony Franco | June 27, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

Thus far, MLBTR's Deadline Outlook series has focused on teams that have a clear buy or sell direction. The Orioles are certainly trending towards the latter but are arguably the first semi-bubble team that we'll cover. Barring a monster July, they'll have no choice but to sell at least some short-term pieces. They've got a number of players who'll draw interest.

Record: 34-46 (2.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Ryan O'Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano, Gary Sánchez

Baltimore has eight impending free agents, seven of whom have some level of trade value. O'Hearn has slumped this month but still carries a robust .301/.384/.485 line. It's his third consecutive above-average season, and he's playing on an affordable $8MM salary. The Mariners, Giants, Reds, Rangers and Royals could all make sense. Mullins had a monster April but hasn't hit over the last two months. He's nevertheless alongside Luis Robert Jr. as the most obvious trade candidates at a weak position. The Mets, Phillies, Guardians, Royals, Padres and Braves are among teams that could use a center fielder or could target Mullins with an eye towards playing him in a corner.

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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Baltimore Orioles Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Athletics

By Darragh McDonald | June 27, 2025 at 11:57pm CDT

MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming trade deadline continues with a look at the Athletics, a team that has been rebuilding for a few years now. They had an aggressive winter ahead of the 2025 campaign and showed some promise early in the season but they have since fallen back and are clearly not out of the rebuild yet.

Record: 33-50 (0.2% playoff probability)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins

Sell Mode

Impending free agents: Luis Urías, Sean Newcomb, Gio Urshela, T.J. McFarland, Miguel Andujar, José Leclerc

These guys should all be very much available in the next few weeks, though it's unlikely the A's get a massive return from any of them. Luis Urías should be the most appealing of the bunch. The A's signed him to a one-year, $1.1MM deal in the offseason. He has appeared in 66 games so far this year with seven home runs, a 10% walk rate and 13.3% strikeout rate. His .244/.328/.378 batting line translates to a 102 wRC+. He has mostly played second base in 2025 but has also spent some time at third and has extensive experience at both positions. He's not a superstar, but he's a solid option in a market without a ton of others available, so he should be able to net the A's a prospect or two. Last year, infielders like Paul DeJong, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Amed Rosario were flipped for modest returns and Urías could be somewhat similar.

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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Oakland Athletics

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Colorado Rockies

By Steve Adams | June 26, 2025 at 11:26pm CDT

MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming trade deadline continues with a look at the Colorado Rockies, who are on pace to break the 2024 White Sox' modern-day record for losses in a single season. General manager Bill Schmidt's club is on pace for a staggering 37 wins this season -- a mark that 23 of the game's 29 other clubs have already reached as of late June. The Rockies are a clear seller -- or at least, they should be. The Rox typically march to the beat of their own drum, however, and owner Dick Monfort seems particularly averse to any large-scale sell-offs.

Still, given the Rockies' historic futility in 2025, the expectation is that they'll move some veteran pieces, while the fan base's hope might be for an uncharacteristically active deadline on the sell side of things.

Record: 18-62 (0% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins

Sell Mode

Impending free agents: Germán Márquez, Thairo Estrada, Austin Gomber, Kyle Farmer, Orlando Arcia

Márquez has been a pillar for the Rockies' staff since coming over in a 2015-16 offseason trade that sent outfielder Corey Dickerson to the Rays. The Rox have resisted trading him in the past, twice signing him to extensions. He's now in his first full season post-Tommy John surgery, earning $10MM. There'll be about $3.17MM of that sum yet to be paid out of as of deadline day. Márquez got out to an awful start but has turned in a 3.21 ERA in 47 2/3 innings over his past nine starts (though that includes six unearned runs in his last start against the Dodgers). His 17.6% strikeout rate in that span is nowhere near peak levels, but his command has been good and he's averaging better than 95 mph on his heater. Plenty of teams would look at Marquez's velocity and track record of missing bats and think they could turn him around further.

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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Colorado Rockies Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals

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Trade Deadline Outlook: San Francisco Giants

By Anthony Franco | June 25, 2025 at 11:52pm CDT

MLBTR's subscriber series previewing each club's deadline activity continues. Next up: the team that has already pulled off what'll probably be the biggest in-season trade we'll get all year.

Record: 44-35 (56.2% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: first base, second base, mid-rotation starter, left-handed relief

Two weeks ago, identifying the Giants' biggest priority was simple. The lineup was floundering and in desperate need of an impact bat. Then came the Rafael Devers stunner. All of a sudden, the top half of the order looks strong. They've pitched exceptionally well all season. They have fewer areas that they absolutely need to address than one might expect, since they're still generally viewed as a step below the top contenders in the National League.

First base was the biggest problem into the middle of June. They finally pulled the plug on the scuffling LaMonte Wade Jr. while signing Dominic Smith as a stopgap. Smith has made a strong impression through his first 16 games. More importantly, the Giants quickly convinced Devers to start taking drills at first base. He remains a designated hitter for now, but there's a decent chance he's getting into games as a first baseman prior to the July 31 deadline.

That doesn't preclude an upgrade. Smith has had a strong couple weeks, but he was a replacement level player between 2021-24. He's not someone who firmly stands in the way of an outside acquisition. Top prospect Bryce Eldridge suffered a right hamstring strain in Triple-A just this week (relayed by Justice delos Santos of The Mercury News). He's going to be out of action for at least 3-4 weeks and is unlikely to make his MLB debut before July is out. The Giants could theoretically replace Smith while keeping Devers as a designated hitter.

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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals San Francisco Giants

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Houston Astros

By Anthony Franco | June 24, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

MLBTR’s team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Astros. They're yet again in pole position in the AL West. Payroll might be an obstacle this summer, but they're in a familiar position as a deadline buyer.

Record: 45-33 (89.6% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Left-handed bat, rotation depth, second base

Dana Brown gave us an easy starting point for the Astros' deadline outlook. Houston's general manager said over the weekend that the front office is already scouring the market for a left-handed hitter. That would have been easy enough to infer from a look at the roster. The Astros have the most right-handed lineup in recent history. They've given more than 2500 plate appearances to righty hitters this season (not including switch-hitters against lefty pitching). The second-place Angels are more than 400 PAs behind Houston, and no other team has even reached 1900. They're on pace to surpass the 2022 Blue Jays for the most plate appearances for right-handed batters in a season this century.

The flip side, of course, is that they've given a staggeringly low 175 plate appearances to pure left-handed hitters. Victor Caratini is their only switch-hitter of note. Yordan Alvarez should be back at some point, but he's coming up on two months since he fractured his right hand. Opponents have unsurprisingly thrown more right-handed pitchers at Houston than at any other. It hasn't stopped them from having success so far, but they'll obviously prefer to have more balance as they look ahead to potential playoff series.

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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Front Office Originals Houston Astros MLBTR Originals

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

By Anthony Franco | June 23, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Phillies. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never been afraid to take swings, and this year figures to be no exception as they battle the Mets for control of the NL East.

Record: 47-31 (90.7% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Late-inning relief, corner outfield, center field, second base

Philadelphia has fewer holes than most teams do. They're the rare club that probably feels good about their rotation depth. They've stacked much of the everyday lineup with star players, most of whom are performing up to expectations. The top priority is a familiar one for the fanbase and front office: stabilizing the back of the bullpen.

Jordan Romano, Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm are their top in-house options at the back end. Strahm is consistently effective but not a prototypical power arm. Romano's first season in Philly has been up-and-down. Kerkering has high-octane stuff and has gotten excellent results since the start of May, but he's always at risk of losing the strike zone. Rookies Mick Abel and Andrew Painter are starting pitching prospects but might make a greater impact this year in the late innings. Still, that's a lot of onus to put on young pitchers.

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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Philadelphia Phillies

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Miami Marlins

By Darragh McDonald | June 20, 2025 at 11:58pm CDT

MLBTR has kicked off a new series for Front Office subscribers! Over the next few weeks, we’re going team-by-team and examining every club’s deadline outlook as trade season approaches. There are some teams that’ll be easy to categorize as buyers or sellers, but many still find themselves right on the bubble where their play over the next four to six weeks takes on extra importance.

There’s nuance even for teams that are clearly into buy or sell mode. Where are those organizations from a payroll perspective? Are the buyers all-in for 2025 or just opening a long-term competitive window? Are the sellers committed to a multi-year rebuild, or are they likely to focus only on moving rentals while hanging onto players who are controllable beyond this season? Might the baseball operations leader be on the hot seat, and if so, how could that impact their deadline decisions?

We’ll start the series with a focus on teams that have moved to the far ends of the standings, giving a bit more time for the fringe contenders to clarify their plans. This edition focuses on the Marlins, a franchise which has been undergoing a huge pivot, despite making the playoffs two years ago.

Record: 29-44 (0.0% playoff probability)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agent: Cal Quantrill

The Marlins have already shipped out a lot of their veteran players in recent years and also made little effort to bolster their roster in the offseason. They signed two free agents this past winter. One of them was Eric Wagaman, who came into this year with 18 games of big league experience and who can be controlled until he reaches six years of service time.

The other was Cal Quantrill, who signed a one-year, $3.5MM deal. The Marlins will surely make him available this summer, though the value will surely be modest. He's a back-end guy, at best, and contending clubs won't pay a huge price for that.

A playoff-caliber starter would fetch a much larger return, but Quantrill has a 5.68 earned run average over his 14 starts this year. There's probably a bit of bad luck in there, with his FIP at 4.43 and his SIERA at 4.49, but his strikeout rate has been subpar in every full season of his career. The Pirates got a lottery-ticket prospect for Martín Pérez last summer, and that's probably what the Marlins will be looking at here.

Controllable Trade Candidates: Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Sánchez, Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers, Max Meyer, Otto López, Kyle Stowers, Janson Junk, Calvin Faucher, Derek Hill, Dane Myers, Xavier Edwards, Andrew Nardi, Jesús Tinoco, Ronny Henriquez, Nick Fortes

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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

By Anthony Franco | June 19, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

MLBTR is kicking off a new series for Front Office subscribers! Over the next few weeks, we'll go team-by-team and examine every club's deadline outlook as trade season approaches. There are some teams that'll be easy to categorize as buyers or sellers, but many still find themselves right on the bubble where their play over the next four to six weeks takes on extra importance.

There's nuance even for teams that are clearly into buy or sell mode. Where are those organizations from a payroll perspective? Are the buyers all-in for 2025 or just opening a long-term competitive window? Are the sellers committed to a multi-year rebuild, or are they likely to focus only on moving rentals while hanging onto players who are controllable beyond this season? Might the baseball operations leader be on the hot seat, and if so, how could that impact their deadline decisions?

We'll start the series with a focus on teams that have moved to the far end of the standings, giving a bit more time for the fringe contenders to clarify their plans. We'll get underway with the Pirates, who are headed to their seventh consecutive losing season.

Record: 29-45 (0.2% playoff probability)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Andrew Heaney, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Caleb Ferguson, Tim Mayza, Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier, Andrew McCutchen

The Pirates aren't likely to trade McCutchen. He has played on a series of one-year deals and has made clear he hopes to retire in Pittsburgh. Unless he has a change of heart and wants to compete for a championship, he'll stick around. They'd listen on any of the other impending free agents, but they'll probably have a tough time generating much in the way of returns for Pham, Frazier or Mayza. The former two haven't hit well in 2025 (Pham, in particular), and Mayza is on the 60-day IL due to a lat strain. He hasn't pitched since late April and isn't particularly close to a return.

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2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Pittsburgh Pirates

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