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MLBTR Podcast: Mike Elias On The State Of The Orioles

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias to discuss…

  • Elias’s promotion from general manager to president of baseball operations (1:45)
  • Why the Orioles underperformed in 2025 (3:30)
  • The club’s lack of investment in free agent pitching (5:25)
  • The decision making about playing time for prospects when they don’t find immediate big league success (9:20)
  • How Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo can co-exist on the roster (12:35)
  • Getting six prospects from the Padres in the Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Laureano trade (14:50)
  • Trading Bryan Baker to the Rays for a draft pick (16:55)
  • Seeing the potential in O’Hearn before his breakout (18:45)

Plus, Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors joins the show to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Tim Heitman, Imagn Images

Mike Elias Discusses Orioles’ Rotation, Roster

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Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias spoke to the media today, just after the club wrapped up a disappointing 2025 season. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com was among those to report on what was discussed, with various details at these links.

The rotation was a natural point of focus, with Elias saying the club wants to add a starter to the front half of its rotation, which could be either a #1, a #2 or a #3. Such distinctions are fairly subjective but the point would be to have another guy capable of slotting in next to Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers somewhere in the front half of the rotation. Baltimore starters ranked 24th in the majors with a 4.65 earned run average this year, so bolstering the rotation is a straightforward target.

What will be interesting to monitor is if the club changes its level of aggressiveness. Throughout Elias’s tenure, the club has never given a free agent pitcher a multi-year deal, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. The only time they’ve gone beyond one year for any free agent was Tyler O’Neill’s three-year pact, which had an opt-out after the first season.

Many Baltimore fans were hoping for change last winter, which was the first offseason under new owner David Rubenstein. In November of last year, Elias raised those hopes by saying that the O’s were considering “the whole spectrum” of available players, which included “high-end free agent deals over many years.” But in the end, their rotation adds were fairly modest. They gave a one-year deal to 41-year-old to Charlie Morton and another one-year deal to 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano, who was coming over from Japan and had no major league experience.

As mentioned, the club’s rotation went on to be a big part of their rough 2025 season. The coming weeks and months will eventually shed some light on if they plan to alter the way they go about bolstering the group for 2026.

While Bradish and Rogers are locked into two spots and Elias hopes to bring in another, that still leaves a couple of spots open at the back end. And of course, a modern baseball team never gets through a full 162-game season using just five starters, so various arms of the roster should play important roles. With that in mind, Elias noted that Grayson Rodriguez is expected to be ready for spring training. He also said that Tyler Wells is good with being a starter or a reliever but the club plans on him being a starter.

Rodriguez has shown tremendous promise but is a huge question mark right now. He logged 122 innings in his 2023 rookie season. Ideally, he would have increased his workload in 2024 but shoulder injuries limited him to 116 2/3 frames. In 2025, both elbow and shoulder injuries wiped out his entire season. He started the campaign on the IL due to elbow inflammation. While on the IL for that, a lat strain set him back. In July, the shoulder was apparently fine but the elbow still a problem. He underwent a debridement surgery in August.

While it’s encouraging that he is on track to be ready by spring training, the O’s probably can’t rely on him at this point. Even if he proceeds without setbacks through to the start of next season, the O’s will have to think about his workload after this lost year.

As for Wells, he just came back from a UCL surgery he underwent in 2024. He got back to the majors in time to make four starts with a 2.91 ERA. He now has a solid 3.98 ERA in his career, as well as a 22.8% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. Those numbers make him a decent rotation candidate next year but he may also have workload limits. Between his rehab work and his big league starts to finish the season, he only logged 47 innings in 2025.

Elias also addressed the club’s catcher situation, saying that Adley Rutschman will be the club’s primary backstop. Rutschman once seemed well establish in that role but his performance has dipped in recent years. He had a .268/.369/.439 batting line through 2023 and was continuing in that fashion through the first half of 2024. However, he appeared to injure his hand when it was struck by a foul ball, which led to a .207/.282/.303 line in the second half of last year.

Ideally, he would have been fully healthy and back on track in 2025 but that didn’t happen. He strained both his right and left oblique at separate times this season and only got into 90 games with a .220/.307/.366 line.

As Rutschman has been struggling, Samuel Basallo has continued to raise his stock. He reached the majors late this season and then the O’s signed him to an eight-year extension. That’s obviously a tremendous vote of confidence but he’s still just 21 years old, has questions about his defense and a .165/.229/.330 line thus far in the big leagues.

Though Basallo has a bright future, it’s understandable that he Rutschman is still ahead of him on the depth chart. Basallo can also play some first base, so perhaps that allows him and Rutschman to co-exist in the lineup, though that could also impact other players like Coby Mayo or Ryan Mountcastle.

Elias also provided a vague update on outfielder Heston Kjerstad, who is seeing doctors due to some unspecified medical condition. Kjerstad didn’t play after the month of July this year with reports of fatigue. His current medical examinations could be related to that fatigue, though that’s mere surmise.

Photo courtesy of Tim Heitman, Imagn Images

Orioles Outright Scott Blewett

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The Orioles announced this afternoon that reliever Scott Blewett accepted an outright assignment to the team’s Florida complex. The righty went unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment last week. Baltimore also activated Adley Rutschman from the injured list. Infielder Luis Vázquez was optioned to the complex in a corresponding move.

Baltimore acquired Blewett in a cash trade with Atlanta in June. He went down with an elbow injury a few weeks later and has spent the past two months on the 60-day injured list. The O’s decided not to put him back on the MLB roster once he returned to health last week. Blewett is out of options, so the Orioles needed to send him through waivers at that point.

The 29-year-old Blewett has been outrighted a few times in his career. He had the right to elect free agency but evidently preferred to spend the season’s final week at the O’s complex. He’ll qualify for minor league free agency at the end of the season anyhow. Blewett has tossed a career-high 44 1/3 innings between three teams this season. He carries a 5.48 earned run average with an 18% strikeout rate. He’ll probably be looking at minor league offers this winter.

Orioles Notes: Kantrovitz, Dubin, Ragsdale, Rutschman

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The Orioles reached out to Cubs VP of scouting Dan Kantrovitz about a possible interview for their general manager opening, according to 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine.  However, it appears as though Kantrovitz declined the offer, as he isn’t looking to leave the Cubs organization.

Kantrovitz has over 21 years of baseball operations experience, split over stints with the Cardinals, Athletics, and Cubs.  He has been in his current position since leaving Oakland for Wrigleyville in September 2019, and he received some interest from the Angels (in 2020) and Mets (in 2023) for higher-level front office positions.  There wasn’t any indication that he actually interviewed for those jobs either, yet it isn’t surprising that clubs keep showing interest considering the Cubs’ strong prospect depth

Since Kantrovitz started overseeing Chicago’s drafts, the team has amassed a farm system that many pundits rank among the game’s best.  Such homegrown names like Cade Horton and Matt Shaw are contributing to the Cubs’ success in 2025, and the club has also used its prospect depth to swing some prominent trades, such as last winter’s blockbuster with the Astros that saw 2024 first-rounder Cam Smith included as part of the package that landed Kyle Tucker.

There are some past ties between Kantrovitz and Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias, as the two worked together in the St. Louis front office from 2007-09.  This naturally doesn’t mean that the O’s are looking just for candidates Elias is personally familiar with, but Kantrovitz’s amateur scouting background is perhaps a hint about what the Orioles are prioritizing in their GM search.

It was only earlier this week that we learned a GM search was even underway, when news broke about Elias’ promotion to PBO last offseason and the Orioles’ plan to hire a general manager to act as Elias’ chief lieutenant in baseball ops.  Levine writes that Kantrovitz was a “short list” candidate for Baltimore, which indicates that the team might have moved beyond an initial stage of the process, even as they’re still rounding up interview candidates.

In other Orioles news, the club placed right-hander Shawn Dubin on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 13) due to right elbow discomfort.  Interim manager Tony Mansolino told the Baltimore Sun’s Jacob Calvin Meyer and other reporters that Dubin will undergo an MRI, and there is “some concern there” over a possible serious injury.

Dubin has been with the O’s for less than three weeks, since he was claimed off waivers from the Astros.  Now in his third MLB season, Dubin struggled to a 5.61 ERA over 25 2/3 innings with Houston this year, but he improved to a 3.38 ERA over eight innings and seven appearances since arriving in Baltimore.  Dubin didn’t allow a run over his first six outings as an Oriole, but in his final appearance before his IL placement, he was charged with three runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays on Friday.

Injuries have been the larger story of Dubin’s season.  Shoulder problems and then a sprained ankle kept him sidelined through all of Spring Training and delayed his 2025 debut until May 11.  He later missed about seven weeks due to a forearm strain, and the combination of that forearm issue plus this new elbow discomfort raises the ominous specter of UCL damage.

To fill Dubin’s spot on the active roster, Carson Ragsdale was called up from Triple-A Norfolk, and the righty made his Major League debut in today’s 11-2 loss to the Blue Jays.  It was far from a dream debut for Ragsdale, as he allowed eight runs over three innings against the AL East leaders.

Ragsdale is another new arrival in the organization, as the Orioles claimed him off waivers from the Giants in early August.  A fourth-round pick for the Phillies in 2020 draft, Ragsdale struggled with San Francisco’s Triple-A affiliate over the last two seasons, though his bottom-line numbers picked up in Norfolk.  For the season as a whole, however, Ragsdale’s strikeout rate plummeted to 19.7% after posting K-rates of well over 30% in the lower minor league levels.  His homer rate also spiked during his time with Triple-A Sacramento and the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but he had better luck in keeping the ball in the park during his brief time in Norfolk.

Finally, it looks like Adley Rutschman is on pace to make it back to the Orioles’ lineup before the season is over.  The catcher hasn’t played since August 17 due to a right oblique strain, but Mansolino said Rutschman is probably going to be starting a rehab assignment in the near future.

Though Baltimore is playing out the string, getting into a few more games will hopefully allow Rutschman to finish a tough year on some kind of high note.  The former All-Star has hit just .227/.310/.373 over 348 plate appearances, while missing extended periods of time due strains of both his right and left oblique.

Rubenstein: Orioles Hoping For More Extensions With Young Players

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The Orioles officially announced Samuel Basallo’s contract extension at a press conference yesterday, with several players in attendance along with Basallo, GM Mike Elias, and team chairman/CEO David Rubenstein.  Among the many topics addressed was Rubenstein’s desire to make such events a fairly regular occurrence, as the owner showed interest in extending more members of the Orioles’ young core.

“The Orioles’ ownership group is really well capitalized and we have the resources to do these kind of deals,” Rubenstein told Steve Melewski and other reporters.  “It takes two to do deals, but we thought this was a perfect one, for the first one of this type….We have a lot of other talented people on the team who we hope will ultimately want to spend their entire career here or want to spend long-term arrangements with us.  We’re committed to doing more of these as soon as we can.”

Basallo’s deal represents an intriguing turning point for an organization that more or less eschewed long-term extensions for years under previous owner Peter Angelos.  As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker indicates, Adam Jones’ six-year extension from May 2012 was the last long-term extension signed by the Orioles.  Other multi-year deals within the last 13 years were short-term pacts to cover arbitration years, plus there was the unusual circumstance of the three-year extension signed by J.J. Hardy just a few weeks before he was set to hit free agency in the 2014-15 offseason.

Even as the Orioles amassed a wealth of young talent in their recent rebuild, extensions didn’t follow.  This naturally could’ve been a product of the ownership turmoil the organization was going through for much of that period, and Rubenstein’s group only bought the team in early 2024.  It should also be noted that such O’s building blocks as Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Jackson Holliday are all represented by Scott Boras, whose clients have traditionally passed on signing early-career extensions.

Still, it was noteworthy that the Orioles didn’t lock up even any of the non-Boras clients until Basallo (who is repped by CAA) this week.  The fact that the O’s didn’t spend much overall during the first full offseason of Rubenstein’s tenure also created concern amongst Baltimore fans that things weren’t going to change under the new regime, and the discontent only grew when the Orioles stumbled to a losing record after two seasons in the playoffs.

Management can now point to Basallo’s extension as proof that the club is willing to both keep its cornerstone players in place, and to spend the money necessary to make those deals happen.  The catcher’s deal is also an example of how quickly contract talks can escalate, as Elias said negotiations began exactly a week ago, on the same day Basallo was called up from Triple-A to make his MLB debut.

Could more extensions be coming soon?  Henderson didn’t comment on whether or not his camp had already had any talks with the O’s, but expressed a willingness to consider any offer and stated that “the No. 1 thing for me is being on winning teams.”

Henderson’s price tag is about to jump considerably, as the shortstop will enter the first of three arbitration years this coming offseason.  His pro career has already seen Henderson bank a little over $8MM, counting his MLB minimum salaries, his $2.3MM signing bonus from the draft, and roughly $3.4MM from the pre-arbitration bonus pool.  Between this bit of financial security already and escalating arb salaries, Henderson may have already made enough to feel comfortable in betting on himself all the way to free agency, like so many Boras clients.  While the three years of remaining control mean that the Orioles aren’t exactly under the gun to extend Henderson, he’ll only get more expensive the closer he gets to the open market.

Adley Rutschman also declined to comment on any extension talks between his reps at Wasserman and the Orioles, simply telling the Baltimore Banner’s Danielle Allentuck and other reporters today that he was happy to see Basallo rewarded.  The fact that the O’s made such a hefty commitment to a young catcher like Basallo naturally led to speculation about Rutschman’s future, and whether or not Basallo has now supplanted Rutschman as the team’s long-term choice behind the plate.

As one might expect, right now the Orioles believe there’s plenty of room for Rutschman and Basallo to operate in tandem.  Yesterday, interim manager Tony Mansolino told reporters (including Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun) that the O’s could have both players in the lineup in a catcher/DH capacity, or Basallo could play first base.  “The fact that Sammy is so versatile, that’s going to help that a lot…Any time you have two guys that can catch at a high level, on a big league team, you have a massive advantage over teams that don’t,” Mansolino noted.

Rutschman has two arbitration years remaining before he is scheduled to hit free agency following the 2027 season.  As Weyrich notes, extending a player who has had some Major League success is much trickier than extending a player like Basallo right at the start of his career, so locking up Rutschman would represent another spending frontier for the Rubenstein ownership group.  There’s also the question of whether or not the Orioles still view Rutschman as worthy of a long-term investment, considering how his numbers have declined at the plate over the last two seasons.

Orioles Place Adley Rutschman On Injured List With Oblique Strain

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For the second time in three months, an oblique strain has sent Adley Rutschman to the injured list. Baltimore placed the switch-hitting catcher on the 10-day IL, retroactive to August 18, due to a right oblique injury. Outfielder Daniel Johnson is up from Triple-A Norfolk to take the vacated roster spot.

Rutschman missed five weeks between mid-June and the end of July with a left oblique strain. He’s now dealing with an injury to the opposite side. Interim skipper Tony Mansolino told reporters (including Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun) that it’s a “mild” strain. That’d seem to give Rutschman a shot to return this season, but even minor oblique strains usually cost a hitter a few weeks.

This has been a career-worst season for the two-time All-Star. Rutschman is batting .227/.310/.373 in 348 plate appearances. It’s his first subpar offensive showing in his four-year career. Last season’s .250/.318/.391 line was only narrowly better than average. Rutschman’s bat has fallen off since his excellent first two seasons.

The declining production comes as top catching prospect Samuel Basallo reaches the big leagues. Baltimore promoted the 21-year-old on Sunday. Basallo has started one game apiece at catcher and designated hitter. The initial plan was for Rutschman and Basallo to split catching work with a decent amount of DH at-bats for the rookie. Basallo will now be the #1 catcher while Rutschman is on the shelf. The youngster’s bat has long been ahead of his glove. A few weeks of regular reps behind the plate won’t entirely wipe away concerns about Basallo’s defense, but it should be a good developmental opportunity.

Baltimore was already operating with three catchers on the active roster. They didn’t want to lose the out-of-options Alex Jackson when they called up Basallo. Jackson will back him up for the time being. That meant they could add an extra outfielder, Johnson, in the corresponding move rather than bringing up another catcher.

Orioles Designate Jacob Stallings For Assignment

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The Orioles announced a series of roster moves today. Left-hander Keegan Akin and catcher Adley Rutschman have each been reinstated from the injured list. In corresponding moves, the O’s optioned right-hander Yaramil Hiraldo to Triple-A Norfolk and designated catcher Jacob Stallings for assignment.

Stallings, 35, was released by the Rockies last month. The O’s were dealing with a few injuries to their catching corps and brought him into the fold via a minor league deal to add some veteran depth behind the plate.

They called Stallings up to the big league squad at the start of July when Chadwick Tromp hit the injured list, joining Rutschman and Maverick Handley on the shelf. Gary Sánchez also hit the IL a few days later, which got Alex Jackson onto the roster.

Stallings got into 14 games for the O’s this month and stepped to the plate 36 times but produced a .114/.139/.143 line in that time. He has a solid reputation for his defense and work with a pitching staff but hasn’t been hitting all year. He now has a combined .134/.195/.168 line in 129 plate appearances between the Rockies and O’s this season. Jackson, meanwhile, has hit three homers in 26 plate appearances for a .269/.269/.769 line. He won’t keep that going forever but he’s been better than Stallings and is several years younger as well.

Jackson will hang onto his roster spot and form the catching duo with Rutschman while Stallings heads into DFA limbo. Given his performance this year, Stallings should clear waivers and will be able to elect free agency. The Rockies signed him to a $2.5MM deal for this year and remain on the hook for the majority of that because they released him. Any other club could sign Stallings and pay him just the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, as the O’s just did.

The return of Akin is also somewhat notable as he is a theoretical trade candidate. He can be retained via arbitration for 2026 and isn’t a strict rental but the O’s could be open to trading in the next few days. Dating back to the start of 2022, Akin has thrown 222 innings for Baltimore with a 3.65 earned run average, 26.1% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. He has earned three saves and 24 holds in that span.

That performance on its own would make Akin an attractive arm. The fact that he’s left-handed, making just $1.475MM this year and controllable for another season only adds to the appeal. On the other hand, his strikeout and walk rates are down to 23.3% and 11% this year, respectively. He’s been on the IL for almost a month due to left shoulder inflammation. Perhaps that injury explains his struggles but also might tamp down trade interest. The Orioles could put him into a few games over the next few days to demonstrate his health to potential suitors.

Photo courtesy of David Richard, Imagn Images

Orioles Place Adley Rutschman On 10-Day Injured List

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June 22: Rutschman isn’t expected to return until after the All-Star break, Mansolino told reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASN).

June 21: The Orioles announced this afternoon that catcher Adley Rutschman is being placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left oblique strain. Catcher Maverick Handley was recalled to the majors to replace Rutschman on the roster.

The news comes after Rutschman was a late scratch on Friday due to what the Orioles termed at the time as “abdominal tightness.” Manager Tony Mansolino told reporters (including Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun) that Rutschman went for an MRI this morning. Evidently, that round of testing revealed a strained oblique for the switch-hitting backstop. A two-time All-Star and decorated hitter currently in the midst of his fourth season in the majors, Rutschman is hitting just .227/.319/.372 with a 100 wRC+ that clocks in as precisely league average.

That could be construed as very concerning given that Rutschman also suffered a down year (104 wRC+) in 2024, but the good news is that Rutschman’s underlying performance (.350 xwOBA) substantially outstrips his actual production (.309 wOBA) so far this season. He’s walking more than last year, sporting the best barrel rate (8.6%) of his career, and his paltry .247 BABIP is certain to increase if given time. More concerning than his offensive numbers is that he’s been rather pedestrian behind the plate defensively this year according to advanced metrics, but defensive metrics are notoriously fickle and it wouldn’t be a shock to see those numbers recover over the long-term either.

Of course, Rutschman will now need to get healthy and return to the field in order to make good on those projected improvements. It’s not yet clear exactly how long Rutschman is expected to miss, though oblique strains can be quite difficult for position players to bounce back from quickly due to the rotational nature of hitting. Even fairly mild strains can often take upwards of a month of recovery, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see Rutschman out of commission until after the All-Star break. In the meantime, it’s clear that the Orioles will lean on a tandem of Gary Sanchez and Handley. Sanchez has made it into just 17 games this year after dealing with injuries of his own, but is slashing a respectable .217/.298/.433 (101 wRC+) with 32 homers in 598 plate appearances dating back to the 2023 campaign. Handley, meanwhile, made his big league debut earlier this year and has hit just .075/.136/.075 in 15 games as a big leaguer.

Handley’s lackluster performance will naturally create some attention on top catching prospect Samuel Basallo, who has long been considered one of the best prospects in the entire game. Mansolino largely shut down the idea that Basallo could be an option to come up any time soon, however. As noted by Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner, Mansolino said that he hopes to see Basallo “absolutely destroy Triple-A in all facets of the game” before joining the big league club, and that he’ll be on the radar for a big league call-up once he “knocks the door down.”

It’s hard to argue that Basallo isn’t already knocking on the door pretty strongly, at least from an offensive perspective. The 20-year-old has an absurd .266/.374/.589 slash line with the club’s Norfolk affiliate this year, good for a 151 wRC+. He’s hit 15 homers in just 46 games while walking at a phenomenal 14.4% clip. With that being said, he’s only caught 15 games this season after dealing with hamstring and elbow issues early in the year that cost him games and limited him to DH even when he was healthy enough to play. Given that reality and Basallo’s shaky grades behind the plate defensively from some scouts, it’s not necessarily a shock that the Orioles would want to see a larger sample of their top prospect’s work behind the dish before promoting him to the majors.

The Orioles’ Long-Term Catching Situation

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Things aren’t going well for the Orioles, to state the obvious. They currently have a record of 26-38. They are 8.5 games back of the final American League Wild Card spot. They are behind every A.L. team apart from the White Sox and Athletics. FanGraphs puts Baltimore’s playoff odds at 3.1%. Baseball Prospectus is slightly more optimistic at 9.7%.

Barring a surge in the next few weeks, they will go into the trade deadline as sellers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the club is viewing things that way, unsurprisingly. That’s a disappointing outcome but it also presents opportunities.

Teams on the fringes of contention often have to answer tough questions about how aggressively to attack the deadline. Diving in headfirst as a buyer has short-term appeal but runs the risk of investing in a flawed team while hampering the club in the future. Trying to walk a fine line between buying and selling can sometimes end up as a half measure that doesn’t fully work in either direction.

The O’s should have a more straightforward approach. While they will be sellers, there is still a lot of young talent in the system and on the big league roster. The general strategy should be to move guys with dwindling control while keeping the long-term pieces with an eye towards contending again in 2026. Ramón Urías and/or Ryan O’Hearn could be traded, making more room for Coby Mayo at the infield corners. Cedric Mullins should be flipped, opening playing time for the club’s many young outfielders such as Jud Fabian or Enrique Bradfield.

Another interesting name who should be in the mix is Samuel Basallo. An international signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2021, he got a healthy $1.3MM bonus. Since then, he has continued to climb prospect rankings with his excellent work in the minors. In 364 games on the farm to this point, Basallo has a combined .282/.364/.489 batting line and 134 wRC+. That includes a .252/.365/.595 line and 148 wRC+ at Triple-A this year. He has 13 home runs in just 39 games. His 25% strikeout rate is a bit high, but his 14.7% walk rate is almost double the league average.

There have been some question marks about his defense over the years, but prospect evaluators feel he has improved as he has aged. He is still only 20 years old and won’t turn 21 until August. Baseball America currently lists him as the #17 prospect in baseball. MLB Pipeline has him at #16. Keith Law of The Athletic just did a midseason update and had Basallo at #4. Coming into the year, ESPN had him at #17 and FanGraphs at #5.

The Orioles have one of the most talented catchers in baseball in Adley Rutschman, though he’s has been in a slump for almost a year now. The first overall pick of the 2019 draft, Rutschman was doing everything according to plan in his first few years in the big leagues.

From 2022-23, Rutschman hit 33 home runs, drew walks at a 13.6% clip and only struck out 16.2% of the time. His .268/.369/.439 line lead to a 130 wRC+, indicating he was 30% better than league average at the plate. The defense also received strong reviews. FanGraphs credited him with 11.3 wins above replacement over those two seasons, tops among all big league catchers in that time. That number doesn’t even account for intangibles, with Rutschman often complimented for his clubhouse leadership and work with a pitching staff.

For the first half of 2024, Rutschman continued on that pace. Through June 26th, he had a .297/.350/.470 line and 135 wRC+. On June 27th, he was hit on his right hand by a foul tip and had that hand wrapped up after the game, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (video clip of the play from MLB.com, though the announcer accidentally refers to Rutschman as James McCann). Maybe the timing is a coincidence, but Rutschman hasn’t been the same since. He sat out the club’s game on June 28th but was back in there on the 29th. He slashed .189/.279/.280 for a 63 wRC+ in the rest of the season.

Here in 2025, the two-time All-Star been better but not back to his previous self. Rutschman has a .227/.321/.374 line and 103 wRC+ this year. Some of that may be luck. He has a .250 batting average on balls in play this season, which is well below his previous level and this year’s .290 league average. His 90.8 miles per hour average exit velocity is actually a career high. His 9.4% barrel rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate are also personal bests.

His batted ball metrics were down in the second half of 2024. Perhaps the most logical explanation is that Rutschman wasn’t 100% healthy after taking that foul tip last year, whereas he’s been mostly healthy but unlucky so far in 2025. He’s had a few knocks this year but has avoided the injured list. Maybe his results will even out in the long run and this dip will eventually look like a footnote. For what it’s worth, I personally think that’s the best and most likely explanation.

Even if Rutschman’s slump was just a blip and he’s back to his old self, the Orioles will still likely have to make some decisions about their plans behind the plate.  Rutschman is now just over two years away from free agency, as he’s slated to hit the open market after the 2027 season. Despite a late-May call up in 2022, he earned a full year of service by finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting. There hasn’t been any indication that an extension is especially likely. With 2025 trending toward being a lost cause, the O’s may only have two more real bites of the apple with Rutschman.

There’s also Basallo’s health to consider. Though he continues mashing the ball, he has dealt with some injuries, including a hamstring issue and some elbow inflammation. Those issues, particularly the latter, have cut into his ability to get work behind the plate. In order to get him regular plate appearances, the O’s have put him at first base and in the designated hitter slot with some frequency. This year, he has 17 starts as a DH, nine at first and 11 behind the plate. He only has 90 innings in the catcher position this year. Last year, he had 35 starts as the DH, 32 at first base and 56 as the catcher.

That means it’s not a strict either/or situation. It’s entirely possible to imagine a scenario wherein Rutschman and Basallo share the catching duties and the DH slot while Basallo also gets some time at first base. Gary Sánchez was the planned backup to Rutschman this year, but he’s largely been hurt and is an impending free agent regardless. O’Hearn is an impending free agent as well. Ryan Mountcastle can be controlled through 2026 but looks like a non-tender candidate since he was having a poor year and is now going to be on the IL for months. Mayo could take over at first next year with Jordan Westburg at third base. Urias might still be on the roster next year, but the likely departures of O’Hearn and Mountcastle will free up some plate appearances.

Basallo’s bat will seemingly be good enough to play anywhere, but his offensive contributions will be more valuable if he can be a regular catcher. The Orioles might prefer to use the first base and DH spots for Mayo and their many young outfielders. If the O’s wanted to open the catcher position for Basallo, there might be some temptation to consider trading Rutschman.

Doing so this summer is not likely. Trading catchers midseason can be difficult because the backstop would have to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly. There’s also the fact that Rutschman’s value is likely down, on account of last year’s struggles and this year’s slow start. As referenced earlier, better days may be ahead, so waiting may be the smart play. With Basallo still a work in progress, there shouldn’t be short-term urgency to get a deal done.

But over the next few years, it’s possible that the pressure builds. Basallo coming up to the majors this year is totally viable, especially if the O’s sell off some pieces at the deadline and open up playing time. If he can hit big league pitching and continues maturing defensively, his viability as a major league catcher will grow. All the while, Rutschman’s window of control will be narrowing. As mentioned, he’s now about two and a half seasons from the open market. He’s making $5.5MM this year and will be due two more raises in arbitration.

As the window of control shrinks and his salary grows, his trade value will drop. That’s a tricky balance the O’s will have to consider. They have long had a big collection of position player talent but have struggled to have enough starting pitching. They have increased spending a bit in the past year but still haven’t made massive investments in the rotation, which has contributed to their unraveling this year.

Trading Rutschman and handing the catching duties to Basallo would certainly be a massive risk right now. But over time, perhaps it starts to look less risky, depending on how Basallo dives into the major league waters.

For other clubs, Rutschman would certainly hold appeal. Free agency usually isn’t a great place to find catching solutions. Backstops tend to show their age a bit more quickly than other players, due to the demands of the position. By the time players get to free agency, they are usually around 30 years old. Rutschman is now 27 and will be 28 and 29 in his final two arbitration seasons.

It’s practically a given that there would be teams willing to surrender controllable starting pitching to acquire Rutschman down the road. If so, the O’s will have to think about the perfect time to make that strike. Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton are all slated for free agency this winter, so the rotation should be the club’s primary target again in the coming offseason, even with Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish coming back from injuries.

There are no easy answers here and there are still many different ways it could go. But whenever Basallo does come up, he will start to get tested and the O’s will gradually get more clarity on who he can be. As that is happening, the window will be slowly shutting on the Rutschman era, barring a surprise extension. As those strings unravel simultaneously, decisions will have to be made.

Photo courtesy of Joe Camporeale, Kim Klement Neitzel, and D. Ross Cameron, Imagn Images

Latest On Orioles’ Extension Candidates

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Orioles fans have been pining for long-term extensions for some of their young core, but thus far there’s been little indication that they’re pursuing such commitments. Part of that stemmed from the fact that the franchise was up for sale. We’re now more than a year into David Rubenstein’s tenure as Orioles owner, and while they’ve spent more money on the whole, it’s primarily been on one-year deals for free agents. (Tyler O’Neill’s three-year deal is a notable exception, though that contains an opt-out clause after the 2025 season and thus could end being a one-year deal as well.)

General manager Mike Elias commented on the matter yesterday, suggesting he’d be “more revelatory” on the subject of extensions than in the past, but still spoke in generalities (via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com).

“This is something we’re working on,” Elias said to the Orioles beat. “There’s guys on this team that we would like to have on this team longer than they’re currently slated for. It’s not a point-and-shoot thing. It’s case by case. There’s different players, different skill levels, different representatives, different philosophies around how to handle players at different age levels. … There’s only so much I can say about it other than it’s something we want to do if it makes sense, that we are working on it and if it happens, we’ll be out here talking about it.”

A large portion of the focus on potential extension candidates in Baltimore centers around young stars like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg — and understandably so. But Cedric Mullins — the Orioles’ longest-tenured player and a cornerstone throughout their rise from rebuilder to contender in the AL East — is in the final year of club control and would stand as a logical extension candidate himself, at least on paper. Agent Robin Cope tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that the team has not broached the possibility of an extension, even though Mullins himself “wishes they would.”

Mullins himself followed up on Cope’s comments. Asked today by the O’s beat about his agent’s statement (link via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner), Mullins replied: “One hundred percent. Just being drafted by Baltimore and just knowing what Baltimore and the city offered me and my family over the course of my career has been nothing short of amazing. So to have those negotiations take place, it’s all in timing. But right now, focused on the day-to-day of bringing wins to the clubhouse.”

The 30-year-old Mullins has spent his entire career with the Orioles organization, dating back to his selection in the 13th round of the 2015 draft. Though he never garnered fanfare from national prospect rankings, he established himself as an All-Star caliber center fielder. Since cementing his place in the Orioles’ lineup back in 2020, Mullins is a .259/.327/.442 hitter. He peaked with a 30-30 season and .291/.360/.518 batting line in 2021, taking home a Silver Slugger Award and landing ninth in MVP voting during what’s still the lone All-Star campaign of his career.

Mullins may never get back to those heights again, but he’s doing his best to get there with a massive start to his 2025 campaign: .300/.435/.620 with four homers, three steals and nearly as many walks (10) as strikeouts (11) through his first 62 turns at the plate. That builds off a big finish to his 2024 campaign. After a brutally slow start in April and May, Mullins regained his footing and finished as one of the most productive hitters in the American League. Over his past 370 plate appearances, he’s batting .280/.371/.497 with 16 homers and 23 plate appearances.

Looking back at recent extensions using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there haven’t been too many examples of outfielders — or position players in general — signing extensions this close to free agency and at this age. Tommy Edman’s deal with the Dodgers (four years, $64.5MM in new money) stands as the most recent parallel. Stretching back a bit further, Charlie Blackmon’s first extension with the Rockies guaranteed him $94MM in new money over a five-year period.

Free agency offers a few more points of comparison, but it’s increasingly rare for center fielders to make it to market before signing an extension. Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5MM), Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80MM) and AJ Pollock (four years, $60MM) all signed for $15-16MM annual range, beginning with their age-31 seasons. Each of those contracts is more than five years old at this point, however. Starling Marte secured a weightier $19.5MM AAV on a four-year deal beginning with his age-33 season. George Springer’s six-year, $150MM contract covers his age-31 through age-36 seasons, but was a more accomplished hitter than Mullins.

Given the lack of discussions to this point, it seems likely that Mullins will reach free agency. He’d be a clear candidate for a qualifying offer and would likely reject that one-year figure in search of a multi-year deal. The O’s have Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and perhaps O’Neill all in the outfield mix beyond the current season, plus prospects Enrique Bradfield Jr., Jud Fabian and Dylan Beavers in the upper minors. That gives the team a good bit of outfield talent to build around if Mullins departs. In order to keep him, they’d surely need to spend well beyond their recent comfort levels. Baltimore hasn’t given out a contract worth more than $50MM since signing Alex Cobb back in 2018, under not only a different owner but also a different front office regime.

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