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Adley Rutschman

Examining The Orioles Rotation

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For the first time in a few years, the Baltimore Orioles plan to begin the 2021 season with a rotation that fans can dream on. They’re not quite ready to challenge the Yankees or the Rays for the division, but neither will their roster be flooded with journeymen and July trade candidates – at least not entirely.

Make no mistake, the Orioles will count as a surprise if they don’t finish in fifth place in the East, but songs of progress are sung in many different keys. The Orioles are entering Year Three under GM Mike Elias, which under most circumstances should call for the beginnings of the organization’s on-field transformation. Last year’s 25-35 record was a step in the right direction after back-to-back 100-loss seasons, but that still put them on a roughly 95-loss pace over a full campaign.

Progress for the Orioles this season begins in the rotation where youngsters Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin plan to slot behind John Means and Alex Cobb, per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Means and Cobb hardly make for a bone-chilling front of the rotation, but there ought not to be much question about their ability to stick in the rotation for a full season.

Means has been worth roughly 2.2 bWAR per 150 innings over his first two seasons, though there’s a stark contrast between his first half of 2019 and the time since. The 33-year-old Cobb, meanwhile, returned to form in 2020 with a 4.30 ERA/4.87 FIP in 52 1/3 innings over 10 starts. He’s a back-end starter at this point and could serve as eventual trade bait, but at least for the first half of the season, he ought to help protect the bullpen from overuse.

Where Means and Cobb secure the floor, Akin and Kremer raise the ceiling. The right-handed Kremer made four starts in 2020 with a 4.82 ERA/2.76 FIP. He struggled a bit with command (5.8 BB/9), but a high-spin fastball deployed up and a cutter with 4.4 inches of horizontal movement helped him secure 10.6 K/9 in his first taste of big league action. Kremer came to the Orioles as part of the Manny Machado package, but his slider looked like a difference-making pitch at the time, and his arsenal has shifted in the years since.

What that means isn’t yet clear. There’s been some question about whether Kremer has stuff enough to stick in the rotation long-term, but the Orioles are going to give the soon-to-be 25-year-old a chance. Internally, he might be their best chance for a first-division rotation type before prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall start arriving in a couple years.

The southpaw Akin boasts a similar profile, but from the other side. Both pitchers surrendered hard contact in 2020, but they still showed enough to manage a spot in the rotation. If either one can build on their 2020 performance to take firm hold of rotation innings, the Orioles could continue to grow their win totals in 2021. On the other hand, none of the front four seem particularly likely to develop into a frontline arm. They still seek high-impact talent in that department. The Orioles rotations ranked 19th in fWAR, 23rd in ERA and 24th in FIP, so they’ll need to improve to make much hay in the American League.

On the offensive end, Adley Rutschman has the chance to be the kind of impact player an organization can rally around. The former first overall draft choice will begin 2021 in Double-A, noted Kubatko. As Rutchschman nears, Elias should feel some pressure to field a competitive team around him. Even if Akin and Kremer aren’t exactly Johnson and Schilling, they can begin to lay the groundwork for a professional roster.

Prospect Faceoff: Bart vs. Rutschman

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The parallels between the Giants’ Joey Bart and the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman are plentiful. Both were standout catchers at reputable Division-I schools –Bart at Georgia Tech and Rutschman at Oregon State. Bart was in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 but went second overall to San Francisco. A year later, in 2019, Rutschman went No. 1 overall to Baltimore. Both draw significant praise for their defensive skills — each received a 60-grade on the 20-80 scale at both FanGraphs and MLB.com — as well as their raw power (again, both 60s). They’re widely considered to be the top two catching prospects in the game.

Joey Bart | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Bart 23, is about 14 months older than Rutschman and has already climbed as high as Double-A on the minor league ladder. He spent most of the 2019 season in Class-A Advanced, hitting .265/.315/.479 (116 wRC+) before a 22-game stint in Double-A where he finished on a tear: .316/.368/.544 (163 wRC+). Bart went on to the Arizona Fall League and hit .333/.524/.767 with four homers in 42 plate appearances before a broken thumb cut his AFL stint short. He could stand to improve his plate discipline (6.2 percent walk rate), but Bart also didn’t strike out at a particularly alarming rate (21 percent).

Behind the plate, Bart posted a rather pedestrian 27 percent caught-stealing rate across those two minor league levels before absolutely owning the run game in the AFL, where he caught nine of the 13 runners who attempted to take a base against him. Scouting reports praise his receiving and framing abilities as well as his ability to block pitches in the dirt — all things you’d expect for a catcher who was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year prior to being drafted in 2018. With Buster Posey’s contract winding down and his production waning, it’s not out of the question to think that Bart could debut in 2020 if the season is able to get underway at some point. If not, a 2021 debut should be considered likely, barring some major injury.

The 22-year-old Rutschman, meanwhile, is obviously further from the Majors but offers many of the same skills. He’s touted as a high-end defensive catcher with a strong arm behind the plate and plenty of pop with the bat. Rutschman hit .254/.351/.423 with a hearty 13 percent walk rate through 154 plate appearances in his pro debut, topping out with Class-A Delmarva. He struck out in just 17.5 percent of those plate appearances, although it’s worth pointing out that he really hasn’t faced any pitching that’s older and more experienced than he is just yet.

Adley Rutschman | Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike Bart, Rutschman is a switch-hitter. He has power from both sides of the dish even if most reports agree that his left-handed swing is superior to his right-handed swing. He threw out seven of the 11 hitters who tried to steal against him in his limited pro debut and, by all accounts, should be adept at controlling runners, calling a game, blocking pitches in the dirt and framing. It’s reasonable to expect that he’ll be in the Majors by 2022 — and a 2021 debut isn’t all that far-fetched (depending on any service time games the Orioles do or don’t feel like playing).

Given that Bart and Rutschman were elite college catchers who went within the first two picks of a draft class in consecutive seasons, this likely isn’t the only place you’ll see the two of them compared in the coming years. Rutschman is generally ranked more highly on prospect lists, although not by much in some cases. He’s No. 4 to Bart’s 14 at MLB.com and No. 5 against Bart’s 10 at FanGraphs. Other publications have a bit more distance between them, including Baseball America (Rutschman at 5, Bart at 32), Baseball Prospectus (Rutschman at 4, Bart at 25) and The Athletic (Rutschman at 10, Bart at 44). Prospect rankings are in a constant state of flux, though, and the pair is close enough that the consensus opinion could easily change in a few months’ time.

It’s clear that both are expected to become high-end catchers with All-Star potential, but let’s open up the debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Latest Notes On Orioles’ Offseason

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Unsurprisingly, it has been another rather quiet offseason for an Orioles organization that is still focused primarily on improving behind the scenes and building up its talent base for the future. There’s still no reason to anticipate anything approaching a blockbuster move this winter. But there could be some further additions before Spring Training opens. And O’s camp is now set to feature an especially intriguing piece of the future.

The latest from Baltimore:

  • In an update on the Orioles’ offseason efforts, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the club’s trade talks have gone “quiet.” That’s not terribly surprising. We haven’t seen much action on Trey Mancini or Mychal Givens, who are perhaps the club’s two most plausible trade pieces. In both cases, the club has multiple years of control remaining and needs not be in any rush to make a move. As ever, though, it’s possible that late-developing interest could spur some chatter.
  • Beyond that, Kubtako says that the O’s are only “willing to hand out one more major league contract this winter.” That limits the open-market possibilities — not that it ever seemed likely the team would do more at this stage. Buttressing the rotation and infield seemingly remain the two chief goals. Kubatko says the club has dabbled in both 40-man and non-roster deals at both positions.
  • While the Baltimore front office works to fill out its slate of candidates at the MLB level in 2020, it has also added a fun twist to the Spring Training festivities. Elite prospect Adley Rutschman has received an invitation to participate on the big league side of camp, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The exciting young backstop won’t be challenging for a job in the majors, obviously, but he will get a taste of the future at the outset of his first full year in the organization. When he was drafted with the top overall pick last summer, Rutschman was billed as both a highly talented and highly polished player. Just how fast he’ll move remains to be seen, but this decision tends to suggest the Orioles anticipate a relatively swift run through the farm.

Orioles Sign Adley Rutschman

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5:04pm: Rutschman’s deal is official, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com tweets. He signed for under slot at $8.1MM, according to Callis, who notes it surpasses the record $8MM the Pirates gave No. 1 overall pick Gerrit Cole in 2011.

9:27am: The Orioles are close to a deal with No. 1 overall draft pick Adley Rutschman, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The former Oregon State catcher’s No. 1 overall slot carries a value of $8.42MM. Rutschman isn’t the only top O’s pick on whom there’s news today, however; MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports (also via Twitter) that the team’s second-rounder, Gunnar Henderson, has agreed to a deal worth $2.3MM. A high school shortstop out of Alabama, Henderson will receive a bonus that is well north of his No. 42 selection’s $1.771MM slot value.

Rutschman, 21, entered the draft as the consensus top talent on the board. The switch-hitter posted a ludicrous .411/.575/.751 batting line with 17 home runs, 10 doubles and a triple through 266 plate appearances in his junior season with the Beavers. Rutschman’s eye-popping batting average and considerable power numbers almost overshadow his plate discipline at first glance, but his 76-to-38 BB/K ratio is every bit as impressive as the rest of his numbers — if not more so.

Baseball America, MLB.com, Fangraphs and ESPN all ranked Rutschman as the top player in the 2019 draft. ESPN’s Keith Law noted that Rutschman’s defense and plus power give him a high floor with the ceiling of a repeated All-Star, while BA’s report touts him as a potential .300 hitter with plus defensive tools and “excellent” makeup and leadership abilities. Rutschman was the only player in the draft that Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen tabbed as a 60 FV (future value) player on the 20-80 scouting scale. Over at MLB.com, Callis and colleague Jonathan Mayo note that while some players who enter a season as a projected top talent struggle with that pressure and spotlight, Rutschman thrived and elevated his game en route to further cementing himself as this year’s best draft prospect.

Broadly speaking, Rutschman is regarded as a plus defender with power from both sides of the dish, strong plate discipline and a strong enough hit tool to post high batting averages as well. If all of that pans out, Rutschman has the makings of a franchise catcher for the new-look Baltimore front office.

Henderson, meanwhile, has yet to turn 18. Scouting reports were reflective of a split camp as to whether he can remain at shortstop or will need to move to third base down the road. MLB.com (No. 27) and Baseball America (No. 30) pegged him as a late-first-round talent, while ESPN (No. 40) and Fangraphs (No. 41) had him a bit lower. Henderson was Gatorade high school player of the year in Alabama and draws praise for his above-average power and the potential for an above-average hit tool. Henderson is young for his graduating class and still filling out his 6’3″ frame, leading to varying projections about his power potential and eventual defensive home. Even reports who project him to move to third base, though, suggest that he has the tools to be a quality defender there.

Draft Notes: Leiter, Mets, Allan, Cubs, Rutschman

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The Yankees called a familiar name with their 20th-round selection, drafting high school pitcher Jack Leiter.  The right-hander is the son of former Yankees pitcher and broadcaster Al Leiter, and is considered one of the top arms of the entire draft class.  Were it not for the younger Leiter’s commitment to attend Vanderbilt in the fall, he “would have gone [in the] top 10 picks, easy” a scout tells MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  (The consensus among pundits wasn’t quite that lofty, though he was seen as a high-end draft prospect.) It isn’t unusual for teams to take a flier of a pick on such prospects just to see if they could be enticed to begin their pro careers early, and despite the past ties between the Yankees and the Leiter family, both Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand believe Jack Leiter will indeed head to Vanderbilt.  Cooper doesn’t think the Yankees have the bonus pool budget available to offer Leiter anything close to his asking price to forego his college commitment, while Feinsand counters any suggestion of a possible wink-wink deal between Leiter and his dad’s old team by noting that the senior Leiter currently works for the Mets as an advisor in the baseball ops department.

As the draft officially comes to an end for another year, here’s more news and notes from the 2019 class…

  • The Mets selected high-school right-hander Matthew Allan with the 89th overall pick, an intriguing part of a strategy by the team to focus their efforts “into largely a three-player draft,” J.J. Cooper writes for Baseball America.  Allan is another of the draft’s top high-school arms, but reportedly wanted a $4MM bonus (greater than the slot price for all but the top 14 picks) to turn pro rather than attend the University of Florida.  The 89th overall pick only carries a $667.9K recommended price, though the Mets drafted all college seniors (who have less negotiating leverage) in rounds 4-10 to potentially carve out space in their bonus pool.  By saving money on those picks and perhaps even on first-rounder Brett Baty, the Mets could have enough to meet Allan’s price.  Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports also reports that Allan’s actual demand is “not near the $4MM that has been thrown out,” so the team could have even more breathing room.
  • The Cubs haven’t had much success in developing their own pitchers in recent years, and their pick of right-hander Ryan Jensen with the 27th overall selection represents how the team is adjusting its thinking in trying to solve this problem, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes.  “Ryan Jensen certainly hits the nail on the head in terms of things that I’ve talked about that we probably avoided,” Cubs senior VP of player development and amateur scouting Jason McLeod told Bastian and other reporters.  Jensen has had mechanical issues during his time at Fresno State, and at only 6’0″ tall and 180 pounds, the righty doesn’t cut an imposing figure on the mound.  The young hurler had two important supporters, however, in Cubs area scout Gabe Zappi and pitching coordinator Brendan Sagara, plus McLeod was himself impressed watching one of Jensen’s starts in person on May 16.
  • Reports from the night prior to the draft suggested that the Orioles were still considering multiple options as the first overall pick, and GM Mike Elias indeed told reporters (including MLB.com’s Joe Trezza) that “the first four picks were all under significant discussion from us at one point or another.”  Rather than take Bobby Witt Jr., Andrew Vaughn, or JJ Bleday, the O’s instead stuck to expectations and chose top-rated prospect Adley Rutschman.  “There are pros and cons with every player profile and every player. We like to work our way through all of that and ultimately decided for the long-range benefit of the organization that this was the right pick,” Elias said.  It’s hard to argue with the choice, given that Rutschman was widely seen as the top talent available in this year’s class (and perhaps in many years).  Elias praised his new player as “a team leader on and off the field” and “a future fixture for this organization.”

Orioles Select Adley Rutschman First Overall

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The Orioles have a new front office and new dugout leadership. And now, the club has a new top prospect after officially selecting star Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman with the first overall pick of the 2019 Rule 4 amateur draft.

Though the Baltimore organization kept things quiet in the build-up to the draft, it would have rated as a major surprise had the club gone in a different direction. Rutschman checks all the boxes you want to see in a 1-1 draft selection.

Rutschman is widely considered the best overall prospect available this year. He’s a highly accomplished collegiate catcher who helped his team to a national championship last year. (Indeed, he was named the most outstanding player of the College World Series.)

Scouting reports on Rutschman, an Oregon native, read like a creat-a-player dream list from a video game. He’s a switch hitter who has walked more often than striking out in college even while delivering outstanding power. Scouts also grade him as a top-tier defensive performer behind the dish.

It’s a momentous decision for an Orioles club that has fallen on hard times after a questionable call to attempt to contend in 2018. The team’s new front office will look to assemble as much talent as possible and ramp up toward a return to glory, with Rutschman’s timeline likely to be a key factor.

The first overall pick comes with a $8.42MM bonus allocation. The O’s have the second-highest overall pool allocation. While the Diamondbacks won’t choose until the 16th overall pick, they added a pair of compensation picks that significantly boosted their overall availability.

Orioles Considering Several Players For First Overall Pick

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With less than a day to go before the 2019 amateur draft, the Orioles seem to still be exploring their options with the first overall pick.  Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman has long been considered the top talent in this year’s draft class by scouts and pundits, though according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo, the Orioles are also looking at Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn and Vanderbilt outfielder J.J. Bleday as “the top two alternatives” if Rutschman doesn’t end up being the pick (plus, high schooler Bobby Witt Jr. also might be a possibility).

Two scouts on rival teams have told Mayo that the Orioles won’t select Rutschman, though Mayo notes, this could also be some of the gamesmanship every team deploys to create uncertainty about their selections.  Still, Baltimore’s front office hasn’t given any indication about their plans in Mike Elias’ first draft as the team’s GM, and the linking of Rutschman to the O’s was more based on Rutschman’s high profile than it was on any reports coming out of Camden Yards.

A wealth of factors go into any draft pick, of course, especially one as important and potentially franchise-altering as a 1-1 selection.  It’s worth remember that Elias was the Astros’ director of amateur scouting when the team made the then-surprising move to select Carlos Correa with the first overall pick of the 2012 draft.  Mark Appel was widely tabbed as the top prospect of the 2012 class, though since Correa was willing to sign for a lesser bonus than the recommended slot price attached to the first overall pick, Correa ended up being the choice, giving the Astros more space in their draft pool to sign Lance McCullers Jr. for a larger bonus in the supplemental first round (41st overall).

We haven’t heard much about what Rutschman or some of this year’s top prospects are seeking in their first contracts, though if Vaughn or Bleday are willing to sign for less than the first overall pick’s recommended $8,415,300 slot price, that certainly be a point in their favor should Elias again look to spread his bonus pool money around on several top prospects.

Beyond just finances, of course, the O’s could also simply prefer Vaughn, Bleday, Witt, or another player to Rutschman for pure baseball reasons.  The Astros received some criticism for being cheap when they took Correa over Appel, though time has clearly vindicated Houston’s strategy in that draft.

If Rutschman isn’t the top pick, it could greatly shake up the remainder of the first round.  As a matter of due diligence, teams scout virtually all of the top prospects to prepare for just such an unexpected scenario, plus other teams could also be preparing to make outside-the-box situations.  Callis and Mayo cite a number of interesting prospects within their piece, including an item on how high school third baseman Brett Baty’s stock could be on the rise, potentially to the Rangers (who have the #8 pick) or even the White Sox with the third overall choice.  Vaughn, Baty, Bleday, and high schooler CJ Abrams have all been mentioned as being on Chicago’s radar, though these plans could again change should Rutschman or Witt be available when the White Sox are on the clock.

Orioles Notes: Draft, Rutschman, Bundy, Hyde, Hays

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With the first-year player draft fast approaching, Orioles fans may want to acquaint themselves with Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman, who could be the team’s next top prospect. The Athletic’s Dan Connolly offers a detailed profile of the college junior and his path to prospect stardom. With the O’s holding the first selection in June’s draft, general manager Mike Elias and company will have their choice of the best amateur players in the country. However, Rutschman is doing what he can to make Baltimore’s pick an easy one; the switch-hitting catcher has emerged as the favorite to have his name called first by commissioner Rob Manfred, earning rave reviews from scouts, coaches, and teammates alike. On the baseball diamond, Rutschman earns praise for his outstanding defense at a premium position, which he pairs with an impressive combination of power and contact at the plate. At a pivotal juncture in the Orioles’ rebuild, the organization’s choice at the top of the draft could be a franchise-altering decision,

Here’s the latest news out of Baltimore…

  • In Connolly’s latest for The Athletic. he offers thoughts on all things Orioles, including a drop in velocity that prompted manager Brandon Hyde to yank Dylan Bundy from his last start in just the fifth inning. The source of the declining velocity is unclear; it could merely be a continuation of a trend that began in 2016, or there could be a health issue, though Bundy claims he is healthy. Regardless, it’s a situation to monitor going forward, whether because of injury, or because the O’s might consider tinkering with Bundy’s repertoire.
  • More from Connolly: Brad Ausmus, who succeeded Jim Leyland as the Tigers’ manager from 2014-2017, offers some advice for rookie manager Brandon Hyde, who finds himself in a similar situation, having to follow in the footsteps of the respected Buck Showalter. Hyde certainly has been, and will continue to be, subjected to his fair share of scrutiny in his first month-plus at the helm of a Big League club. Commandeering a rebuilding team, Hyde has had to balance outsiders’ demands to win with the mandate to identify and develop young players around whom the organization can construct the next great Orioles team.
  • Talented outfielder Austin Hays, a preseason favorite to play his way into in the Orioles’ starting outfield this season, will make his season debut in the coming days. After suffering a thumb injury in March, Hays should join one of the O’s low-level affiliates shortly and work his way through the ranks, hopefully culminating in an extended stay in the Majors, where he could contend for a starting role. Hays has long tantalized fans with eye-popping minor-league numbers, though he struggled in his 2017 debut. After a disappointing 2018, the hope is that Hays will actualize his offensive potential and force his way into Baltimore’s lineup.

AL East Notes: Sanchez, Orioles, Draft, Red Sox, Jays

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The injury-plagued Yankees could welcome Gary Sanchez back to the lineup as soon as Wednesday, manager Aaron Boone told reporters Sunday (link via Newsday’s Laura Albanese). He’ll suit up for a rehab game with Class-A Charleston today, and barring any kind of setback, that’ll line him up for a midweek return against the Halos. Boone spoke optimistically but also vaguely about injured regulars Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar, Giancarlo Stanton and Troy Tulowitzki, declining to put a specific timetable on any of the bunch.

Here’s a look around the division…

  • The Orioles, who hold the No. 1 overall pick in this June’s draft, currently are considering high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman but haven’t made any firm decisions as to who they’ll take, per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubtako. It’s of course worth noting that with more than a month to go until the draft, a different player could soar up the pre-draft rankings and thrust himself into the mix for the top selection. Similarly, a currently projected top pick could still give teams cause for concern and/or incur an injury. Both Rutschman and Witt were pegged as top-three overall picks in the first of what will be several mock drafts over at Baseball America, where Rutschman was projected to go to Baltimore.
  • The Red Sox expect to stick with internal options in the rotation following Nathan Eovaldi’s injury, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Hector Velazquez will be the leading candidate to step into the rotation, though Marcus Walden could also be an option. Manager Alex Cora downplayed the possibility of opting for a bullpen day in place of Eovaldi, voicing a clear preference for someone who can go out and pitch at least five innings. If the Sox want to go with a nonroster option, Cotillo notes that righty Erasmo Ramirez could again be selected (he’s already cleared waivers following last week’s DFA and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Pawtucket).
  • With Matt Shoemaker down for the season due to an ACL tear, the Blue Jays are weighing options to replace him in the rotation, writes Laura Armstrong of the Toronto Star. The top traditional starting pitching candidates look to be righty Sam Gaviglio (who made 24 starts for Toronto a year ago), lefty Thomas Pannone, right-hander Sean Reid-Foley and right-hander Jacob Waguespack. However, the Jays could also more creatively look to deploy an opener — a strategy with which skipper Charlie Montoyo is quite familiar from his time in Tampa Bay. In that instance, someone such as Gaviglio or Pannone could handle multiple innings in relief of an opener, thus shielding the team’s weakest starter from the opposing lineup’s most dangerous hitters the first time through the order. For now, the Jays have several off-days looming on the schedule, limiting their need for a fifth starter and lessening the urgency of the decision.
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