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The A’s Could Make A Left-Handed Power Bat Available In Trade

By Anthony Franco | January 3, 2023 at 12:45pm CDT

The A’s are firmly amidst a rebuild. They stripped the roster almost to its studs over the 2021-22 offseason, dismantling what had been a borderline playoff team to cut spending. Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt all departed last winter; Frankie Montas followed at the deadline, and Sean Murphy was the last big piece to move a few weeks ago.

With all their star players out the door, Oakland has mostly completed its sell-off. They’re now integrating a number of younger, pre-arbitration players onto a roster that again figures to be one of the worst in the American League in 2023. The A’s are looking a few years down the road, and it stands to reason they’d therefore be open to moving virtually any player on the roster with an established major league track record.

Ramón Laureano may be their highest-upside trade candidate, but he’s coming off a rough season that’s a year removed from a performance-enhancing drug suspension. It’s probably best to let him try to rebuild his stock with an eye towards a deadline deal. There’s another outfielder whom general manager David Forst could consider more of a sell-high possibility: Seth Brown.

A former 19th-round pick, Brown was never regarded as an especially notable prospect. He didn’t reach the majors until after his 27th birthday late in the 2019 season. Brown barely played at the MLB level his first couple years, not topping 26 MLB games in a season until 2021. He picked up 307 plate appearances that year, connecting on 20 home runs but only reaching base at a .274 clip.

Last season, the Lewis-Clark State College product got his first real run as an everyday player. He suited up 150 times and tallied 555 trips to the plate. Brown hit .230/.305/.444 with 25 homers. His on-base percentage, while a bit below the .312 league mark, wasn’t at the untenable clip of the previous season. He cut his strikeout rate from 29% to a more manageable 26.3% while boosting his walk percentage to a solid 9.2% clip. Brown still doesn’t have a great plate discipline profile, but those numbers are sufficient for a player with his power. His slugging mark was nearly .050 points above the league average despite playing half his games at Oakland’s spacious ballpark.

Virtually all of those gains came as part of a torrid second half. Brown carried a .216/.269/.396 line into the All-Star Break. After the Midsummer Classic, he posted a .249/.348/.507 showing over 250 plate appearances. He more than doubled his walk rate from 6.2% to 12.8% and collected 15 longballs in the second half.  He finished tied for 11th in the majors in homers after the Break, while his 147 wRC+ during that time (indicating overall offensive production 47 percentage points above the league average) checked in 27th among those with at least 150 plate appearances.

As with any relatively small-sample performance of that nature, it’s probably fair to assume Brown won’t maintain that pace. He doesn’t need to be a top 30 hitter in the league to be valuable, though, and it’s clear he has legitimate power upside. He’s now picked up 45 homers in a bit less than 900 plate appearances over the past two seasons. In both years, he’s put up a hard contact rate north of 40% — around five points higher than the league mark.

Even with some likely regression from his late-season tear, Brown at least profiles as a quality power bat for the strong side of a platoon. For his career, the left-handed hitter owns a .239/.309/.482 line against right-handed pitching. He’s managed only a .172/.230/.297 mark against southpaws and would probably be shielded from looks against tough lefty arms if he were to land with a contender.

A decent runner, Brown also stole 11 bases in 13 attempts last season. The A’s even gave him some late-season work in center field, though he struggled significantly there. Public metrics suggest he’s a more viable defender in the corner outfield and at first base. The bat will have to carry the profile, but Brown has enough athleticism he could factor in at a few of the lower-value positions on the defensive spectrum.

There haven’t been any indications Brown’s name has come up in trade talks between Oakland and other clubs thus far. Unlike most of the players the A’s have shipped off in recent seasons, they have no payroll motivation to deal Brown. He’ll play this season for little more than the league minimum salary and is eligible for arbitration three more times after that. Trading him wouldn’t be about saving money but the opportunity to potentially recoup a mid-level prospect or two for a player whose trade value may be at its peak. While he’s controllable for the foreseeable future, Brown is already 30 and presumably not seen as a core long-term organizational piece for a rebuilding club.

A productive lefty platoon bat to rotate through the corner outfield and first base should have more appeal to an immediate contender, particularly since Brown’s affordability means he’d fit on the books anywhere. Teams like the Rays, Yankees, Rangers, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers all have some amount of uncertainty at either first base or in the outfield. Tampa Bay and New York stand out as particularly strong speculative fits considering their lineups tend to skew right-handed. Brown wouldn’t be a franchise-altering addition, but he should be of interest to a number of teams as they build out their roster depth with free agency mostly finished.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

 

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Athletics MLBTR Originals Trade Candidate Seth Brown

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Padres, Eric Hanhold Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | January 2, 2023 at 10:47pm CDT

The Padres signed righty Eric Hanhold to a minor league contract last month, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. He’ll be assigned to Triple-A El Paso.

Hanhold didn’t pitch in MLB last year. Claimed off waivers by the Pirates from the Orioles last offseason, he was passed through waivers by Pittsburgh in Spring Training. Hanhold accepted an assignment to Triple-A Indianapolis and wound up spending the whole season there. Working solely in relief, he posted a solid 3.40 ERA across 53 innings. His 21.2% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk percentage were each a bit worse than average, but he racked up ground balls at an excellent 62.7% clip.

The University of Florida product did reach the highest level the prior season. Hanhold came out of the bullpen 10 times with Baltimore in 2021, allowing nine runs in 10 1/3 innings. He’d also garnered a cup of coffee three years before with the Mets. Between the two clubs, the 29-year-old has tallied 12 2/3 major league frames. He’s allowed 11 runs (10 earned) with eight strikeouts and four walks over that stretch.

Despite last year’s fairly impressive minor league showing, Hanhold never got an MLB look in Pittsburgh. At season’s end, he qualified for minor league free agency. He figures to open next season with the Chihuahuas as a bullpen depth option. Through parts of four Triple-A campaigns, Hanhold owns a 4.60 ERA with a 20.1% strikeout percentage.

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San Diego Padres Transactions Eric Hanhold

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Rockies, Matt Carasiti Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | January 2, 2023 at 10:27pm CDT

The Rockies signed reliever Matt Carasiti to a minor league contract last month, according to an announcement from the Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks. He’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.

Carasiti, 31, began his career with the Colorado organization more than a decade ago. A sixth-round draftee in 2012, he debuted in the majors four years later. Carasiti pitched to a 9.19 ERA through 19 appearances for the Rox in 2016. Colorado dealt him to the Cubs the following year, although he never played in the majors with Chicago. Carasiti made the jump to Japan after the 2017 campaign before returning to the U.S. in 2019. He briefly suited up with the Mariners that season, logging 9 2/3 frames in his most recent MLB action to date.

Signed by the Giants to a minor league deal over the 2019-20 offseason, Carasiti underwent Tommy John surgery that spring. He didn’t pitch in either of the next two seasons before returning to the San Francisco organization on a new non-roster pact heading into 2022. The St. John’s product pitched half the season at Triple-A Sacramento, allowing an 8.62 ERA over 21 2/3 innings before being released in July.

Not long after, Carasiti made the jump to the Atlantic League. He caught on with the Ducks and pitched 11 1/3 innings of four-run ball down the stretch. He struck out 14 against just four walks, evidently impressing Colorado evaluators along the way. He’ll get a look in camp and seems likely to open the 2023 campaign with Triple-A Albuquerque as bullpen depth.

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Colorado Rockies Transactions Matt Carasiti

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Which Teams Make The Most Sense For Jurickson Profar?

By Anthony Franco | January 2, 2023 at 9:47pm CDT

Aside from Carlos Correa — who reportedly remains focused on finalizing his deal with the Mets — only three players from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents remain without a contract. There’s just one hitter from the group, as the market for Jurickson Profar has remained surprisingly quiet.

The nine-year MLB veteran had a solid 2022 campaign with the Padres, hitting .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs through 658 plate appearances. It was his second above-average offensive season in the last three years, leading the 29-year-old to make the easy decision to accept a $1MM buyout and hit free agency instead of returning to San Diego on a $7.5MM salary.

In the nearly two months since then, however, there’s been virtually zero indication as to his next landing spot. The only team that has been substantively tied to Profar this winter is the Astros, and that was before they re-signed Michael Brantley to split time with Yordan Alvarez between left field and designated hitter.

That leaves only speculative possibilities in trying to narrow down Profar’s landing spot. With Profar mostly limited to left field in recent years after breaking into the majors as an infielder, it’s worth looking at the clubs that got the worst production out of the position. Here are the bottom ten teams in wRC+ from left fielders in 2022:

  • Rangers (47)
  • Angels (67)
  • Marlins (81)
  • Tigers (88)
  • Red Sox (91)
  • A’s (94)
  • Reds (95)
  • Pirates (97)
  • Braves (97)
  • Twins (98)

A few of these clubs have already addressed the issue. The Halos traded for Hunter Renfroe, while the Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year contract. The Twins signed Joey Gallo and look likelier to trade away an outfielder than sign another.

Some others are either amidst rebuilds or at least heading into transitional seasons. The A’s, Tigers, Reds and Pirates are all unlikely to contend for a playoff spot in 2023. That doesn’t inherently rule them out on Profar, who’s still fairly young and could sign a multi-year deal. Yet it perhaps lessens the urgency for anyone in that group to try to plug every hole on the roster via free agency. Let’s take a look at the remaining three clubs in that group:

  • Rangers: Texas has had a second straight whirlwind offseason, this time on the pitching staff. They’ve added four starting pitchers as part of their efforts to vault themselves into postseason contention. Left field is the biggest remaining weakness, and Rangers general manager Chris Young has already gone on record about a desire to upgrade. Bubba Thompson and infield/outfield hybrids Brad Miller, Josh Smith and Ezequiel Durán headline the internal options. An addition seems likely, although it remains to be seen if Texas would circle back to Profar, who never met the extremely lofty expectations he’d had as a prospect in the Rangers farm system.
  • Marlins: The Marlins haven’t addressed the outfield this winter, but they added Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler on multi-year pacts last offseason. They could make Profar fit if they moved Soler to a more or less everyday designated hitter role, but another free agent deal for a corner outfielder might be too rich for their taste. That’s particularly true since most of their in-house younger outfielders (i.e. Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz, JJ Bleday) profile better in a corner than they do in center field.
  • Braves: Atlanta has thrown a few darts at left field this offseason. They’ve acquired Sam Hilliard and Eli White in minor trades while signing Jordan Luplow to a modest one-year deal. None of them should stand in the way of an impact left fielder, but Profar’s more of a solid stabilizing veteran than the kind of player who’d change a lineup. Between the trio of new pickups and in-house candidates like Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario, Atlanta may feel they’ll find at least one player in the group who can reasonably approximate Profar’s production.

Beyond that trio of teams, a few more stand out as possible fits. The Mariners have looked for ways to address left field. As with Atlanta, they have a hodgepodge of internal candidates for reps (Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore among them) and could feel better patching things together if they don’t land a clearer upgrade via trade. Seattle also has some questions about their remaining spending capacity. The Yankees haven’t attacked left field after losing Andrew Benintendi in free agency. Oswaldo Cabrera and Aaron Hicks are the in-house favorites for playing time.

The Royals have almost no certainty in either corner outfield spot. The Nationals are rebuilding but the Talk Nats blog tweeted a few weeks ago they were looking to bring in some outfield help. The incumbent Padres still make some sense. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made no secret of his longstanding affinity for Profar dating back to their overlapping time in the Texas organization. Fernando Tatis Jr. is likely ticketed for left field work once he returns from his performance-enhancing drug suspension, but adding another bat to the corner outfield/designated hitter mix could free Matt Carpenter up for more multi-positional work off the bench.

What does the MLBTR readership consider the best fits for Profar? Where will he wind up?

(poll link for app users)

Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?
Padres 14.03% (1,174 votes)
Rangers 11.01% (921 votes)
Yankees 9.37% (784 votes)
Blue Jays 5.08% (425 votes)
Mariners 4.71% (394 votes)
Tigers 4.70% (393 votes)
Giants 4.26% (356 votes)
Braves 4.11% (344 votes)
Red Sox 3.93% (329 votes)
White Sox 3.55% (297 votes)
Mets 3.12% (261 votes)
Orioles 2.69% (225 votes)
Cubs 2.47% (207 votes)
Marlins 2.46% (206 votes)
Dodgers 2.34% (196 votes)
Cardinals 2.28% (191 votes)
Royals 2.15% (180 votes)
Astros 2.02% (169 votes)
Reds 1.86% (156 votes)
Brewers 1.79% (150 votes)
Rays 1.63% (136 votes)
A's 1.63% (136 votes)
Pirates 1.49% (125 votes)
Nationals 1.47% (123 votes)
Angels 1.37% (115 votes)
Twins 1.33% (111 votes)
Guardians 1.20% (100 votes)
Rockies 0.87% (73 votes)
Phillies 0.74% (62 votes)
Diamondbacks 0.32% (27 votes)
Total Votes: 8,366

 

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Jurickson Profar

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Analyzing The Blue Jays’ Second Base Possibilities

By Anthony Franco | January 2, 2023 at 8:03pm CDT

The Blue Jays have made a few drastic lineup changes this offseason, sending out Teoscar Hernández and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno while bringing back Daulton Varsho and signing Kevin Kiermaier. Toronto general manager Ross Atkins recently told reporters he considers the club’s heavy lifting mostly finished, though he left the door open for another small-scale move or two.

One area of the roster that has thus far not changed is the infield. That’s not all that surprising, considering the Jays entered the offseason with a strong infield under club control for another year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman will be back at the corners, with Bo Bichette manning shortstop. The one position that doesn’t seem entirely settled is second base, though that’s not for a lack of options. Toronto has a trio of players who could compete for reps at the keystone, with manager John Schneider presumably planning to divvy up playing time depending on how each performs early in 2023.

At the moment, Whit Merrifield looks like the favorite for early run. Toronto acquired him from the Royals at last summer’s trade deadline, buying low at a time when the two-time All-Star was sitting on a meager .240/.290/.352 line. The Jays seemed undeterred by those numbers, betting on Merrifield’s career track record and generally solid work following an atrocious April. He rewarded the front office’s faith, hitting .281/.323/.446 in 44 games in a Jays uniform.

That surely cemented Merrifield’s place somewhere in the regular lineup, with second base being the straightforward option. Merrifield is capable of covering all three outfield positions, but Varsho and Kiermaier are in line for regular playing time alongside George Springer on the grass. With Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen likely to split time between catcher and designated hitter, Merrifield will presumably man second base on Opening Day.

Doing so pushes a pair of players who looked like quality regulars for the Jays not too long ago — Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio — to the bench. Biggio has been in the Opening Day lineup in each of the past three seasons, twice at the keystone, but that seems unlikely to be the case this year. The left-handed hitter is coming off a second straight pedestrian year, hitting .202/.318/.350 with six home runs through 303 plate appearances. Biggio still draws plenty of walks but he’s seen his power production dip the past couple seasons. He struggled enough he was briefly optioned to Triple-A Buffalo last season, though he was recalled within two weeks. He spent most of the year in a utility capacity, playing all four corner spots in addition to second base.

After Biggio was demoted, the primary second base job fell to Espinal. The 28-year-old had worked primarily as a versatile bench piece from 2020-21. He played his way into more consistent reps with a strong first few months in 2022, hitting .271/.323/.425 through the end of June. He even secured an All-Star appearance for that excellent early work, but he couldn’t carry that production for a full season. Espinal hit .261/.321/.317 from July onwards, ceding some more playing time to Biggio and (after the deadline) Merrifield for the stretch run.

With Merrifield in the fold, Espinal and Biggio each entered the offseason as at least somewhat realistic potential trade candidates. Espinal’s ability to cover shortstop if Bichette were injured and/or needed a rest day made him seem more entrenched than Biggio in Toronto, although it seemed reasonable teams could call on either player. There’s been no indication thus far that Toronto has discussed either with other clubs.

Considering the scant remaining middle infield options available via free agency, it’s possible teams like the White Sox, Angels, Giants or Brewers could still be in touch with Atkins and his staff in the coming months. The Jays don’t figure to be urgent to move either player, particularly considering the health uncertainty present with Kiermaier and Springer. An injury to either could press Merrifield more frequently back into outfield duty, leaving Espinal and/or Biggio to handle the keystone on a more regular basis.

Espinal and Biggio each qualified for arbitration for the first time this winter. They’re both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary in the $2-3MM range. That’s hardly onerous, although there’s a case to be made for considering trade possibilities. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted last week, the Blue Jays presently project to enter the season right around the $233MM base luxury tax line. There are enough error bars in arbitration projections they could conceivably head into the year either above or below that threshold.

A team’s tax payor status isn’t finalized until season’s end, and the organization could well determine they’re comfortable exceeding that mark to maximize their chances in what should be a competitive AL East. Yet if the club is content with its infield strength — especially if they’re confident prospect Addison Barger will be ready for MLB action fairly early in the season — fielding offers on Espinal or Biggio could make sense. They’re not under pressure to do so but would presumably be open to the possibility, particularly if they could net immediate rotation depth or bullpen help.

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MLBTR Originals Toronto Blue Jays Cavan Biggio Santiago Espinal Whit Merrifield

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The Top Remaining Free Agent Middle Infield Options

By Anthony Franco | January 2, 2023 at 6:11pm CDT

Jean Segura came off the board last week on a two-year deal with the Marlins. That removed the top remaining free agent middle infielder, leaving clubs with very few possibilities for help either at shortstop or second base.

Of course, Carlos Correa lingers over the entire market. Until he officially puts pen to paper somewhere, there’s at least a chance for another twist in that saga. Various reports have suggested Correa’s focused on hammering out his deal with the Mets in spite of their concerns about his physical, and that was essentially confirmed yesterday by Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. We’ll set Correa aside and look at the best options remaining for teams outside of Queens.

Here are the still-unsigned free agent middle infielders who tallied at least 150 plate appearances in 2022:

  • Elvis Andrus (34): Andrus is arguably the top unsigned free agent infielder. The 14-year veteran still brings a high-contact bat and quality baserunning to the table. Public defensive metrics have been divided on his work recently, with Statcast’s Outs Above Average generally rating him as an above-average shortstop despite less enthusiastic reviews from Defensive Runs Saved. Andrus looked like a glove-only player after hitting .255/.302/.360 from 2018-21, but he bounced back with a solid 2022 campaign. He hit .249/.303/.404 with 17 home runs (the second-highest total of his career) last season. That included a very strong finish, as Andrus hit .271/.309/.464 in 43 games with the White Sox after the A’s released him in mid-August in a move seemingly motivated by a desire to keep him from vesting a $15MM option in his contract for the 2023 season.
  • Josh Harrison (35): The final couple months of the season saw Andrus and Harrison overlap on Chicago’s South Side. The latter played the entire season there after signing a one-year free agent deal during Spring Training. Harrison appeared in 119 games, mostly split between second and third base. He hit .256/.317/.370 with seven home runs across 425 trips to the plate, overcoming a slow start to finish the year with roughly average offensive numbers. The veteran had posted similar numbers in each of the previous two seasons. He doesn’t draw many walks or hit for significant power, but he’s a respected clubhouse presence who consistently puts the ball in play. Harrison still earns solid grades from defensive metrics for his second and third base work; he’s not an option at shortstop, however.
  • José Iglesias (33): Iglesias spent the 2022 season as the primary shortstop in Colorado. He hit .292/.328/.380 through 467 plate appearances, right in line with the production he’s managed over the past four seasons. Igleias is very difficult to strike out and hits for consistently high batting averages, albeit without much else to drive the offensive profile. He rarely walks or hits home runs, though he’s a threat for 25-plus doubles annually. That offense sufficed when paired with the excellent defense that defined his early MLB tenure. He’s drawn less favorable reviews from public metrics the past two seasons though. Statcast has pegged him as a league average shortstop in each of the last two campaigns, but Defensive Runs Saved has rated him a staggering 26 runs below average since the start of 2021. How teams feel about Iglesias’ glove at this stage of his career figures to determine whether he’ll get semi-regular playing time again or have to assume more of a utility role in 2023.
  • César Hernández (32): Hernández suited up 147 times and tallied 617 plate appearances with the Nationals last season. He was a durable presence in the lineup for manager Dave Martinez but had a rough season. Just a year after popping a career-high 21 home runs, the switch-hitter mustered only one longball in the nation’s capital. Hernández is limited to second base and has posted subpar defensive metrics in each of the last two years. He might be limited to minor league offers.
  • Rougned Odor (29): Odor spent the 2022 campaign in Baltimore, his third team in as many seasons. The production was similar as it has been at each of the previous two stops. Odor has enough left-handed power to connect on 10-15 home runs with fairly regular playing time. Yet he also makes plenty of outs thanks both to consistently low walk rates and a propensity for infield pop-ups. Odor is almost strictly a second baseman — he has intermittent experience at third base as well — and posted below-average defensive numbers last year.

Utility Types/Bounceback Fliers

  • Hanser Alberto (30): Alberto brings a high-contact righty bat to a bench. He never walks and has only once topped three home runs in a season but has plus bat-to-ball skills and is well-regarded as a clubhouse presence. Alberto hit .244/.258/.365 in 159 plate appearances with the Dodgers in 2022.
  • Johan Camargo (29): Camargo spent the 2022 season with the Phillies, hitting .237/.297/.316 through 166 plate appearances. The switch-hitter had a pair of productive years with the Braves to open his MLB career but has since had four straight well below-average seasons. Camargo’s most natural fit is at third base, though he played more shortstop with Philadelphia.
  • Harold Castro (29): A left-handed hitter, Castro makes a decent amount of contact. He’s a career .284 hitter but rarely walks or hits for power. He’s played extensively throughout the infield and even logged a fair bit of center field work but rated poorly defensively at every stop. The Tigers non-tendered him at the end of the season.
  • Yu Chang (27): Chang bounced around the league via waivers in 2022, suiting up for four teams. He hit .208/.289/.315 in 190 combined plate appearances. Chang had been a prospect of some regard during his time in the Cleveland farm system. He hasn’t hit in limited MLB looks in any of the past four seasons but can play all four infield spots.
  • Didi Gregorius (33): Gregorius was an above-average shortstop as recently as 2020. Unfortunately, a two-year free agent deal to return to the Phillies over the 2020-21 offseason didn’t pan out. Gregorius struggled offensively in both seasons, including a .210/.263/.304 line in 232 trips to the plate last year. The Phils cut him in early August and he didn’t sign elsewhere before year’s end.
  • Josh VanMeter (28): VanMeter is primarily a second baseman who has some experience at the corner spots. He hit .187/.266/.292 with a trio of home runs through 192 plate appearances with the Pirates last season.
  • Jonathan Villar (31): Villar has excellent speed and has stolen more than 35 bases on three separate occasions. He’s intermittently been a productive hitter, posting above-average offensive numbers as recently as 2021. Last season was a disappointment, however. Villar hit .208/.260/.302 in 220 plate appearances between the Cubs and Angels. He spent the final couple months of the year in Triple-A.
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2022-23 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals Cesar Hernandez Didi Gregorius Elvis Andrus Hanser Alberto Harold Castro Johan Camargo Jonathan Villar Jose Iglesias Josh Harrison Josh VanMeter Rougned Odor Yu Chang

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Twins’ Outfield Depth Gives Front Office Numerous Trade Possibilities

By Anthony Franco | January 2, 2023 at 4:16pm CDT

The Twins entered the offseason with ample payroll room but have mostly stuck to smaller-scale additions. Kyle Farmer was brought in from the Reds to act as shortstop insurance in the event Carlos Correa departed. Christian Vázquez inked a three-year free agent deal to address the catcher situation the front office had prioritized, while Joey Gallo signed a one-year deal two weeks ago.

That latter move added another left-handed bat to what had already been a fairly crowded outfield mix. Even with Mark Contreras designated for assignment in a corresponding move, the Twins have nine listed outfielders on their 40-man roster. Six of them hit left-handed, which makes it seem likely they’ll subtract at least one from the group in a deal that nets help elsewhere on the roster.

Most of the attention will be focused on right fielder Max Kepler. He’s the most straightforward trade candidate in the outfield and has drawn some interest earlier in the offseason. Kepler is the most expensive of the group, due at least $9.5MM through the end of next season on the contract extension he signed back in 2019. Controllable via club option through 2024, he has the least amount of contractual control of anyone in the group.

That could all make the 29-year-old Kepler the most likely Twins outfielder to be dealt, but it’s also going to tamp down the appeal he’ll have on the trade market. He’s coming off a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine home runs through 446 plate appearances, his second straight season hitting slightly worse than league average. Kepler’s 36-homer showing from 2019 looks like an outlier. His plus defense in right field, quality plate discipline and perhaps a forthcoming benefit from the limitations on shifting mean he should still have some trade value on his contract, but Minnesota’s not likely to recoup an overwhelming return.

If the offers on Kepler aren’t especially persuasive, could president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, GM Thad Levine and their staff turn attention elsewhere? Minnesota has a number of younger outfielders who could instead be made available, particularly if the deal nets them help at shortstop and/or in higher-leverage relief innings.

  • Nick Gordon (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)

Gordon might be the most appealing of the bunch. A former top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect, his status dipped from 2018-21. Gordon’s bat had seemed to stall out in the upper minors and his middle infield defense wasn’t exceptional enough to overcome it. It seemed as if he could find himself on the roster bubble after a tough rookie season in 2021, but Gordon was a valuable utility option for Minnesota last year. He hit .272/.316/.427 with nine homers in 443 plate appearances. Defensive metrics didn’t love his work up the middle but considered him a roughly average left fielder.

The 27-year-old isn’t entirely without question marks. He has a very aggressive offensive approach that consistently leads to modest walk totals. Some clubs figure to have concerns about how often he’ll maintain a suitable on-base percentage. Yet he’s also shown some defensive flexibility and hit very well when holding the platoon advantage. Last season, Gordon posted a .289/.329/.465 line against right-handed pitching and his 41.5% hard hit rate against northpaws ranked 12th among 299 hitters with 200+ plate appearances. He’s exhausted his minor league option years, meaning he has to stick on the big league roster.

  • Trevor Larnach (controllable through 2027, eligible for arbitration after 2024)

Larnach is also a former first-round pick who was a top minor league talent for a number of seasons. He’s shown solid power and plate discipline in the minors but the production has been more intermittent against big league pitching. The Oregon State product is a .226/.316/.371 hitter in 130 MLB games the past two years. Larnach has walked at a robust 10.2% clip while making plenty of hard contact. He’s offset those promising numbers with a few more grounders than ideal and, more importantly, a strikeout rate pushing 34%.

While he doesn’t have much defensive versatility, Larnach is a quality defender in the corner outfield. He’ll be 26 in February and is still two seasons from qualifying for arbitration. He probably hasn’t done enough to cement himself as an everyday player in the crowded Minnesota outfield but has shown enough promise to believe he could be a quality regular if he can even modestly improve his contact rate. Larnach’s 2022 season ended in June after he underwent surgery to repair a strain in his core muscle. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so it’s possible he heads back to Triple-A St. Paul if he sticks in Minnesota.

  • Alex Kirilloff (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)

Another former first-round draftee and top prospect, Kirilloff hasn’t yet found much MLB success. He’s a .251/.295/.398 hitter in 104 MLB games, a disappointing start for a player whose bat is his carrying tool. It’s obvious Kirilloff’s capable of more if he can stay healthy, though, considering he’s had each of the past two seasons cut short by right wrist issues that necessitated surgery.

Kirilloff is still just 25 and mashed with St. Paul in 2022, posting a .359/.465/.641 line with ten homers in 35 games. That brought his career minor league slash line up to .328/.378/.519 in parts of five seasons. The Minnesota front office may have no interest in selling low on Kirilloff given that kind of offensive upside, but other clubs figure to at least inquire whether they can buy low given his injury issues. He has one option season left.

  • Matt Wallner (controllable through at least 2028)

Wallner is the least established of the group. The former Southern Mississippi star just made it onto the MLB roster as a September call-up. He played 18 games down the stretch. Wallner, who draws praise from prospect evaluators for his power potential, otherwise split the season between Double-A Wichita and St. Paul. He hit .277/.412/.542 with 32 home runs in 571 plate appearances between the top two minor league levels. Wallner just turned 25 and still has all three options remaining.

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MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins Alex Kirilloff Matt Wallner Max Kepler Nick Gordon Trevor Larnach

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Padres Open To Trade Offers On Trent Grisham, Ha-Seong Kim

By Anthony Franco | December 29, 2022 at 10:58pm CDT

The Padres have had another significant offseason, adding Xander Bogaerts on an 11-year megadeal and bringing in Matt Carpenter via two-year guarantee. Those players lengthen a lineup that already had plenty of talent, with Bogaerts in particular building on an existing area of strength.

San Diego certainly didn’t need another infielder. Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth would’ve made for an effective pairing up the middle, while Manny Machado has third base secured. Fernando Tatis Jr. will be back from his performance-enhancing drug suspension by the end of April and was already expected to see plenty of outfield work in deference to Kim and Cronenworth. As things stand, the Bogaerts signing pushes Kim to second base and Cronenworth over to first while keeping Tatis in the outfield on most days.

That overflow of up-the-middle talent is an enviable “problem” to have, as it affords them the ability to turn to the trade market. To that end, Dennis Lin of the Athletic reports the Padres are open to discussions on both Kim and center fielder Trent Grisham. Lin adds the organization isn’t interested in parting with Cronenworth and suggests a deal involving Grisham might be more likely than one than sends Kim elsewhere.

Grisham has spent the last three years in San Diego. Acquired from the Brewers in the deal that sent Luis Urías and Eric Lauer to Milwaukee over the 2019-20 offseason, he immediately stepped in as the Friars primary center fielder. Grisham had a great first season, collecting 10 home runs and stolen bases apiece with a .251/.352/.456 line while playing in 59 of the 60 games during the shortened 2020 campaign. He looked like a budding star, but his offense has regressed in the past couple seasons.

The lefty hitter put up a .242/.327/.413 slash in 2021, with that production checking in right around league average. He took another step back this past season, posting a .184/.284/.341 mark through 524 trips to the plate. Grisham connected on 17 longballs and walked at a robust 10.9% clip but had the worst batting average of any hitter with at least 500 plate appearances. While there’s some amount of misfortune in the meager .231 average on balls in play he mustered, there were also plenty of worrisome underlying indicators.

Grisham struck out in 28.6% of his plate appearances, the worst clip of his career. Only Randal Grichuk had a lower line drive rate than Grisham’s 13.5% mark (minimum 500 PA’s) and his hard contact percentage was middle-of-the-pack. A left-handed pull hitter, Grisham could stand to benefit somewhat from the forthcoming shift limitations, but it’s not likely to be all that significant a boost unless he trims his strikeouts and/or improves his contact profile.

To his credit, the 26-year-old remained a valuable part of the San Diego lineup even during a disappointing offensive year. Grisham played more than 1100 innings in center field and earned a second career Gold Glove for his work. Defensive Runs Saved credited him as eight runs better than average, while Statcast pegged him as 12 runs above par. Grisham’s glove has been a plus throughout his career, as he combines excellent speed with quality reads and solid arm strength.

Despite the career-worst offensive season, Grisham would have a decent amount of value on the trade market. His defense raises his floor and he’s shown prior glimpses of quality work at the plate. With three seasons of remaining arbitration control and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a modest $2.6MM salary next year, he’d have plenty of appeal in a market starved for quality center field options. There are no remaining free agent center fielders who’d likely play every day on a contender. The trade market is similarly without many obvious candidates. The Royals would listen to offers on Michael A. Taylor and the Twins are known to be open to dealing Max Kepler. Bryan Reynolds requested a trade from Pittsburgh, but the Pirates have maintained they won’t budge off a lofty asking price.

Teams like the Red Sox, Rockies, Rangers, Reds and Marlins are among the clubs that have sought center field help. That’s also true of the Dodgers, though it’s hard to imagine San Diego trading anyone to their chief competitors in the NL West. Lin relays that San Diego has interest in Marlins starter Pablo López and speculates the Friars could look to market Grisham to Miami in a deal for rotation help, though there’s no indication the sides have actually had those discussions to this point.

Kim should have even stronger trade appeal, as he’s coming off a better offensive season. After struggling in his first MLB campaign, the former KBO star hit .251/.325/.383 across 582 plate appearances in year two. Kim picked up 11 homers and 29 doubles while striking out in only 17.2% of his plate appearances. He also stole 12 bases in 14 attempts.

Like Grisham, Kim provides sizable value on the defensive side. Pressed into primary shortstop duty by Tatis’ injuries and suspension, the 27-year-old looked like a Gold Glove-caliber middle infielder. DRS credited him as 10 runs above average in a little less than 1100 shortstop innings, while Statcast estimated him as five runs better than average. Kim had also rated as a plus defender at second and third base during the 2021 campaign.

Upon making the jump from South Korea during the 2020-21 offseason, Kim landed a four-year, $25MM guarantee. He’s due a modest $17MM over the next two seasons (including a buyout on a 2025 mutual option) and is slated to head back to free agency following the ’24 campaign. That’s excellent value for a player coming a season as strong as Kim’s and in his prime years.

As with center field, the middle infield market has dried up considerably at this stage of the offseason. Assuming Carlos Correa finalizes a deal with the Mets, the top remaining free agents are Elvis Andrus and players like Hanser Alberto and José Iglesias. Obvious trade possibilities are again sparse. Players like Amed Rosario, Jorge Mateo or Nick Madrigal could be dealt but aren’t necessarily likely to move. Boston, Atlanta, Minnesota, the Angels and the White Sox are among the teams that could seek out upgrades at one of the middle infield spots.

There’s no urgency for San Diego to deal either Grisham or Kim, of course. Both players are affordable and currently penciled into everyday roles. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller acknowledged as much last week, telling Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic the team’s “intention” was to retain their current position player group thanks to “the flexibility and the versatility it gives our team.” Lin’s report suggests they’re not completely committed to that course of action, though, at least if offered a chance to upgrade elsewhere on the roster.

The back of the rotation is something of a question mark, with Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo slated for the fourth and fifth spots behind Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Yu Darvish. Only Musgrove is guaranteed to be around beyond next season; Snell and Darvish will be free agents at the end of the year, and Martinez and Lugo could opt out of their multi-year deals (although only if the team first declines a two-year option in Martinez’s case). The club could also consider ways to upgrade at catcher or add another bat to the corner outfield/first base mix.

The organization’s farm system has thinned considerably in recent seasons as they’ve packaged a lot of their depth for impact trade acquisitions, perhaps leading them to be more amenable to deal from the MLB roster in the right circumstance. Young catcher Luis Campusano would seem to be a candidate for such a move on paper considering his strong prospect pedigree, but Lin relays that trade interest in the 24-year-old isn’t especially strong at this point.

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Miami Marlins San Diego Padres Ha-Seong Kim Jake Cronenworth Luis Campusano Pablo Lopez Trent Grisham

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Blue Jays, Julian Fernandez Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | December 29, 2022 at 10:12pm CDT

The Blue Jays are signing reliever Julian Fernández to a minor league contract, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link). He’ll add some hard-throwing bullpen depth to the upper minors.

Fernández has over two years of major league service, but virtually all of that was spent on the injured list. The Giants took the righty out of the Rockies organization in the 2017 Rule 5 draft. He suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery before he could throw a pitch for San Francisco and spent the entire following season on the MLB injured list. The Marlins claimed him off waivers the next offseason but he spent the entire 2019 campaign on the IL as well thanks to continued elbow issues.

Over the 2019-20 offseason, Miami relinquished his Rule 5 rights. That sent him back to his original organization, the Rockies, without requiring a 40-man roster spot. Fernández had racked up two years of MLB service without appearing in a game, but he finally got his first real opportunity late in the 2021 season. Colorado selected him onto their 40-man roster as a September call-up. He allowed eight runs in 6 2/3 innings over six outings, struggling with his control but averaging a blistering 99 MPH on a fastball that maxed out just shy of 101.

Fernández held his roster spot with Colorado last winter but spent the first few months of the season on optional assignment to Triple-A Albuquerque. He struggled and was designated for assignment in mid-June. He cleared outright waivers and stuck with the Isotopes for the entire season, tallying 57 innings across 58 appearances. The Dominican-born hurler allowed a 6.63 ERA in that extremely hitter-friendly league, serving up a staggering 2.37 home runs per nine innings. He struck out 24.9% of opponents on an impressive 13.6% swinging strike percentage, but the longball and a 12.3% walk rate proved too problematic for him to get back to the majors.

After qualifying for minor league free agency at season’s end, Fernández finds a new opportunity in Toronto. His arm strength is surely intriguing for the Jays pitching development staff even as his minor league performance track record has been inconsistent. The 27-year-old still has two minor league option years remaining, so if he cracks Toronto’s 40-man at any point, he can bounce between Rogers Centre and Triple-A Buffalo freely for the next couple seasons.

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Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Julian Fernandez

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Yankees, Tyler Danish Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | December 29, 2022 at 8:21pm CDT

The Yankees are in agreement with reliever Tyler Danish on a minor league contract, reports Sweeny Murti of WFAN (on Twitter). He’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training.

Danish has appeared in parts of four major league seasons, with the bulk of his work coming this year. He made brief MLB appearances as a member of the White Sox each year from 2016-18 before a few seasons kicking around the upper minors. Danish latched on with the Red Sox on a minor league deal last winter and cracked the 40-man roster out of Spring Training. He’d spend most of the season in the majors, with 32 of his 42 outings coming at the highest level.

The 28-year-old posted a 5.13 ERA through 40 1/3 innings over that stretch. Danish induced grounders at a solid 47.2% clip and limited walks to a meager 6.9% rate but he didn’t miss many bats. He averaged just under 91 MPH on his sinker, relying more frequently on a low-80s curveball than any other offering. The Florida native picked up swinging strikes on a below-average 7.4% of his pitches, resulting in a fairly modest 18.5% strikeout percentage.

At the end of the season, the Red Sox ran Danish through outright waivers. He cleared and elected minor league free agency, where he’s now landed with their top rivals. He’ll try to crack a Yankee bullpen that is already fairly deep in right-handed options. Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, Ron Marinaccio, Tommy Kahnle, Lou Trivino and Michael King should be on the roster if healthy (as would southpaw Wandy Peralta). Domingo Germán and Albert Abreu — both of whom are out of minor league option years — look to have the inside track on jobs as well. Jimmy Cordero, Greg Weissert, Matt Krook and Clarke Schmidt are all also on the 40-man roster but can still be sent to the minors.

Given that depth, Danish looks likely to open the season at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He’d add some experienced depth to the upper levels of the system. He’s out of minor league options himself, so if he cracks the 40-man roster at any point, he’ll have to remain in the majors or be designated for assignment and made available to other clubs.

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New York Yankees Transactions Tyler Danish

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