NL Central Notes: Astros, Lee, Reds
The NL Central's two playoff representatives both play tonight. The Cardinals host the Phillies in St. Louis and the Brewers could eliminate the D'Backs in Phoenix. Here's the latest on the division's non-playoff teams as we await today's games…
- Prospective Astros owner Jim Crane hasn’t received a formal proposal from MLB regarding compensation for a possible move to the American League, according to Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle. However, Crane has had increased dialogue about a possible league change.
- The Pirates will make a run at re-signing Derrek Lee, according to MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. Lee didn’t reveal much about his 2012 plans during the season and has maintained that he’s keeping his options open, even retirement.
- The Pirates announced that their entire coaching staff will return in 2012.
- The Reds haven't discussed possible extensions with Francisco Cordero or Brandon Phillips since the season ended last week, GM Walt Jocketty told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The GM hopes to resume talks next week with Cordero, who will likely agree to a two-year deal, and Phillips, who won't be giving the Reds a hometown discount.
- MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes previewed the Cubs’ class of arbitration eligible players this morning.
GM/Manager Notes: Cubs, Angels, Red Sox, Orioles
The Cubs and Angels officially have general manager vacancies and, depending on what Buck Showalter decides to do, the Orioles could be looking for a GM, too. Throw in the uncertainty surrounding Theo Epstein's future and many expiring contracts for managers and there’s the possibility for a lot of leadership changes in the next month or so. Here are the details from around MLB…
- Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts declined to address rumors that Red Sox GM Theo Epstein may be interested in coming to Chicago, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.
- The Angels dismissed assistant GM Ken Forsch and special assistant Gary Sutherland, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times. They dismissed GM Tony Reagins on Friday.
- ESPN.com's Buster Olney hears that the Red Sox have had informal conversations about what they'll do if Epstein is no longer their GM (Twitter link).
- The Red Sox aren’t targeting Bobby Valentine or Joe Torre for their managerial opening, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. It appears that Epstein is considering two candidates without MLB managerial experience, according to Heyman.
- People who know Epstein tell Heyman that the GM doesn’t expect to work for the Red Sox for life. It’s possible that Red Sox ownership will add a couple years to Epstein’s contract (it expires after 2012) or change his title.
- Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts likes the Red Sox organization, not just Epstein, according to Scott Miller of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). That could mean the Cubs are interested in assistant GM Ben Cherington.
- The Red Sox would surely demand and obtain compensation if the Cubs hire Epstein, so Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wonders how much he is worth. Cameron isn't sure that spending big on recognizable executives makes sense, since there's a steady supply of qualified candidates who are available more cheaply.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says it's time for the Red Sox to extend Epstein and that it would be a mistake on their part to let him go.
- The Cubs' shortlist includes Cherington, White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn and Braves director of professional scouting John Coppolella, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
- Connolly explains that he expects the Orioles to hire someone from outside of the organization with a background in scouting and/or player development if Showalter continues managing the team.
- Though GM John Mozeliak says he has a “very good” relationship with manager Tony La Russa, Heyman hears that some top Cardinals people don’t believe the skipper is worth his salary of $5MM or so.
- Despite rumors connecting him to the White Sox, La Russa says he’s not going to manage another team, according to Heyman.
- The Angels are meeting to start forming their list of GM candidates today and they seem likely to go outside of the organization for the position, Heyman writes.
- Don't forget to check out our list of GM Candidates.
White Sox Notes: Quentin, Reed, Sale
The White Sox will select 13th in next year's draft after finishing the 2011 season with a 79-83 record. Here's the latest as they begin an offseason that will include their first managerial search since the 2003 season ended…
- GM Kenny Williams told Peter Gammons of MLB Network that the White Sox are "going to let the kids play" next season (Twitter link). Gammons expects the White Sox to be younger in 2012.
- Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com wonders if Williams' comments signals that the White Sox would trade Carlos Quentin in the right deal. They could get by without Quentin if they play Brent Morel at third, Dayan Viciedo in right and Adam Dunn at DH.
- Addison Reed, the 22-year-old right-hander who posted a 12K/1BB ratio in six relief appearances this year, could begin the 2012 season in the Major League bullpen, according to Padilla.
- Williams told MLB.com's Scott Merkin that Chris Sale will "be given every opportunity in the rotation" next year (Twitter link).
Poll: Best In-Season Trade By A Playoff Team
The Yankees and Rays combined to make one minor trade this season, but the other six playoff teams were active on the trade market in 2011. I recapped each team's in-season trades last week; here are some highlights (production with new team in parentheses):
- Phillies acquire Hunter Pence (.324/.394/.560 with 11 HR in 236 plate appearances) for Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart and Josh Zeid.
- Tigers acquire Doug Fister (1.79 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 0.6 BB/9 in 70 1/3 innings) and David Pauley for Francisco Martinez, Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells and Chance Ruffin.
- Brewers acquire Nyjer Morgan (.304/.357/.421 in 421 plate appearances) for Cutter Dykstra. Note: though Morgan was traded before the season, I'm including him since he was traded on March 27.
- Brewers acquire Francisco Rodriguez (1.86 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 29 innings) for Danny Herrera and Adrian Rosario.
- Cardinals acquire Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski and Corey Patterson for Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet and P.J. Walters.
- Rangers acquire Mike Adams (2.10 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 25 2/3 innings) for Joseph Wieland and Robert Erlin.
Now that you've considered the trades, it's time to vote.
Which playoff team made the best in-season trade?
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Phillies (Hunter Pence) 42% (5,051)
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Tigers (Doug Fister) 31% (3,746)
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Cardinals (Edwin Jackson, others) 12% (1,433)
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Brewers (Nyjer Morgan) 6% (679)
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Brewers (Francisco Rodriguez) 5% (644)
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Rangers (Mike Adams) 3% (315)
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Other 1% (145)
Total votes: 12,013
MLB’s Newest $100MM Players: One Year In
Six players signed deals worth $100MM or more last offseason and they've now completed one year since finalizing their respective deals. Here's a look at how baseball's newest $100MM players fared in 2011 (in order of contract value):
- Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies, ten-year, $157.75MM extension – This deal, which was somewhat unexpected last offseason, is going as well as the Rockies could hope. Tulowitzki put together another tremendous season: .302/.372/.544 with 30 home runs at shortstop.
- Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox, seven-year, $154MM extension - Gonzalez led the American League in hits and nearly won the batting title in his return to the Junior Circuit. He posted a .338/.410/.548 line and hit 27 homers on his way to an MVP-caliber season. His seven-year extension officially kicks in next season, though.
- Carl Crawford, Red Sox, seven-year, $142MM contract - Crawford posted a sub-.300 on-base percentage, saw his stolen base total drop by 29 and hit fewer home runs, triples and doubles than he did during his final season in Tampa Bay. The Red Sox still owe him $128MM, so they have to find a way to turn their left fielder's career around.
- Jayson Werth, Nationals, seven-year, $126MM contract – Though Werth doesn't like the idea that 2011 was a lost season for him and the Nationals, there's no denying that his numbers fell off. He had a .232/.330/.389 line with 20 homers and 19 stolen bases.
- Cliff Lee, Phillies, five-year, $120MM contract – We knew Lee was good, but it would not have been fair to expect this kind of year: he posted a 2.40 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 232 2/3 innings.
- Ryan Braun, Brewers, five-year, $105MM extension - Braun could win the MVP after leading the league in slugging percentage (.597) and OPS (.994). He hit 33 homers and stole 33 bases, posted a career-high .397 on-base percentage and made his fourth consecutive All-Star team.
Crawford and Werth were sources of excitement for their respective teams when they signed free agent contracts and the outfielders have since become sources of concern. The other position players – Tulowitzki, Gonzalez and Braun – have turned in MVP-caliber seasons, while Lee should be a top-three finisher in this year's NL Cy Young balloting.
Wren Talks Prado, Chipper, Bourn
The Braves narrowly missed the playoffs last week, losing to the Phillies in the final game of the regular season as the Cardinals surged past them into the Division Series. Atlanta GM Frank Wren looked ahead to the offseason in a Q&A with reporters, including Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The details:
- There’s a strong likelihood that Martin Prado will return to left field in 2012. The Braves haven’t discussed moving Prado to another position.
- The Braves know that Chipper Jones’ knee won’t permit him to play seven days in a row, so they’ll be on the lookout for utility help this offseason. They have a $1.5MM option for Eric Hinske in 2012 ($100K buyout).
- Wren isn’t looking for bullpen depth, since he was pleased with the late-season results from Cristhian Martinez and Anthony Varvaro.
- The Braves aren’t certain whether Kris Medlen will start or relieve in 2012.
- Wren is open to the idea of extending Michael Bourn. They “like the infusion of speed” and could discuss a mutliyear deal instead of going through the arbitration process. Bourn, who is scheduled to hit free agency after 2012, will earn a raise from $4.4MM next year.
Explaining Non-Tenders
Russell Martin, Alfredo Aceves and Joel Peralta were all non-tendered last offseason. One year later, we’re well on our way to welcoming another class of non-tenders to the club. It can be a confusing kind of transaction, so here’s an explanation of what exactly a non-tender is.
To tender a player a contract is to offer a contract, but non-tenders refer to a specific kind of offer: offers of arbitration. Rules and precedent shape the kind of salary a player can expect through arbitration, so players under team control usually get raises through the process.
For example, Jacoby Ellsbury isn’t eligible for free agency yet, but he and agent Scott Boras have some say in his future earnings. If the Red Sox offered Ellsbury $3MM in arbitration this offseason, Boras and Ellsbury could counter with a $10MM submission and win. Arbitration can be expensive for teams, since a player’s salary depends on his previous earnings and comparable players.
Players generally earn $400K or so for their first few major league seasons, so they’re usually relatively cheap in their first arbitration seasons. But players entering their second, third or (for super twos) fourth arbitration seasons stand to make more money if they’re tendered an offer.
If an arbitration eligible player hasn’t performed well and projects to earn a considerable amount, his team will likely consider a non-tender to save money and preserve roster flexibility. That means they have turned down the option to negotiate a contract with that player through arbitration, but it doesn’t mean the player’s going to sign elsewhere.
Left-handers Hideki Okajima and Andrew Miller both re-signed with the Red Sox after Boston non-tendered them last winter. The Red Sox signed the pair of pitchers for less guaranteed money, but only after they risked losing them to rival teams. (After a player is non-tendered he hits free agency and can sign anywhere.)
It’s complicated, but here’s what you need to know: teams non-tender players when they would rather risk losing them to another team than go through the potentially expensive arbitration process.
MLBTR first published a modified version of this post by Ben Nicholson-Smith in September 2010.
Make Or Break Year: What Happened?
Before the season, MLBTR writers identified 13 players who were set for 'make or break' years. These players had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for success in free agency.
We checked in on the players at the quarter pole of the campaign and again at its midway point. Let's do it again now that the regular season's over (all links go to the MLBTR posts):
Players whose seasons met or exceeded preseason expectations:
- Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez had a strong season, hitting 26 homers and posting a .306/.361/.510 line as the Cubs' everyday third baseman.
- Edwin Jackson - Jackson, a free agent after the season, completed 199 2/3 innings with a 3.79 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 43.8% ground ball rate.
- Bobby Abreu - Though Abreu's power dropped off, he managed a .353 on-base percentage and 21 steals. His 2012 option vested in July, so he should be back in Los Angeles for a fourth season with the Angels.
- Carlos Beltran - A highly-coveted midsummer trade target, Beltran spent time on the DL with a strained right hand and wrist in August. His season line was .300/.385/.525, so agent Scott Boras will likely receive multiyear offers for the switch-hitter.
- Jeff Francis - Francis pitched 183 innings with a 4.82 ERA, 4.5 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. He wasn't spectacular, but he made his starts, quieting questions about the condition of his left shoulder.
Players who had disappointing seasons due to injury or poor performance:
- Scott Kazmir - Kazmir spent time on the DL, made one appearance for the Angels and posted a 17.02 ERA with more walks than strikeouts at Triple-A before getting released. The 2011 season could not have gone much worse for the former first rounder.
- Nate McLouth - McLouth's .228/.344/.333 line is better than it was last year and features a respectable on-base percentage, but he missed the second half with oblique and abdominal injuries.
- Jonathan Broxton - It was a lost season for Broxton, who recently had surgery to remove loose bodies in his right elbow and is looking at an incentive-based one-year deal in free agency.
- Grady Sizemore - Sizemore got off to a hot start, but finished the season with a .224/.285/.422 line. Knee and abdominal issues limited him to 71 games and there's no guarantee that the Indians will pick up his $9MM option for 2012.
- Joel Zumaya - Zumaya didn't pitch in a Major League game after undergoing elbow surgery in March.
- Ryan Doumit - A sprained left ankle limited the 30-year-old to 77 games. When healthy, he posted a .303/.353/.477 line, but it doesn't appear likely that the Pirates will pick up his $7.25MM option.
- Casey Blake - Blake hit .252/.342/.371 in 239 plate appearances and spent considerable time on the DL with a cervical strain. He had surgery in September and the Dodgers will decline his $6MM option for 2012.
- Matt Capps - Capps saw his strikeout rate (4.7 K/9), ground ball rate (41.6%), average fastball velocity (92.9 mph) and innings total (65 2/3) drop this year, while his ERA rose nearly two runs to 4.25. At least he stayed healthy, unlike many on this list.
Free Agent Arbitration Primer
What does it mean when we say a free agent was offered arbitration? When a team offers arbitration to one of its own free agents, it is offering the player a 2012 contract at a to-be-determined salary. Last year, out of 35 such offers, only two players (Frank Francisco and Jason Frasor) accepted.
One reason "offering arbitration" to free agents is confusing is that the actual process of arbitration rarely comes into play. Even with Francisco and Frasor last year, the sides agreed on 2010 salaries without arbitration hearings. In an arbitration hearing, a third-party panel must choose between one salary figure submitted by the team and another submitted by the player. These hearings only take place if the sides cannot agree on a salary. Clearing up a common error: if a free agent accepts arbitration, the team and the player can submit any salary figure they want.
If most free agents turn down arbitration offers, why do we care? Turning down an arbitration offer makes draft pick compensation possible for the team losing the free agent. Free agents can be classified as Type A, B, or nothing. Check our list to see the current designations, and click here to see the stats the Elias Sports Bureau uses to assign them.
Prince Fielder will be our example of a Type A free agent. Say the Brewers offer him arbitration, and he turns it down, knowing that he can do better than a one-year contract if he hits the open market. Say also that the Dodgers sign Fielder, and do not sign any other Type A free agents. In this case, the Brewers are given Los Angeles' #18 pick in the June 2012 draft as well as a pick in a supplemental round that takes place after the first round. It's important to note that the supplemental pick is squeezed into the draft but it does not come from the Dodgers. Therefore, the Dodgers only surrendered one pick to sign Fielder, even though the Brewers receive two.
In the Fielder example, the Brewers were given the Dodgers' first-round draft pick. With Type A free agent draft pick compensation, only first-round picks outside of the top 15 (plus holdovers from the previous year) are eligible to be taken by another team. In cases where the first-round pick is protected, the team gives up its second-round pick. For example, if the Cubs sign Fielder, the Brewers get their second-round pick rather than their protected first-round (#6) pick.
Now, if one team signs multiple Type As from other teams, draft pick compensation gets muddier. Click here to read up on that.
We'll use left-hander Bruce Chen as our Type B example. Say the Royals offer him arbitration and he turns it down in search of a better contract. Say also that the Orioles sign Chen. The Orioles do not give a draft pick to the Royals. The Royals do gain a draft pick – it is squeezed into the supplemental round. Therefore, signing a Type A free agent who was offered and turned down arbitration costs one draft pick, but signing such a Type B does not. Players who were not offered arbitration do not have draft pick compensation. Same goes for players who were designated neither A nor B.
Another cause for confusion: we have a different concept that also uses the word "arbitration." When we say Clayton Kershaw is arbitration-eligible, we mean that he has between two-plus and five-plus years of service time, and therefore has some say in his salary. Kershaw is under the Dodgers' control. The only question is what they will pay him next year, and that's the one similarity with free agent compensation. Kershaw and the Dodgers each submit salary figures, and if they can't agree an arbitration panel must choose one.
Upcoming deadlines: on November 23rd (by 11pm CST), we'll learn whether teams offer arbitration to their free agents. By December 7th, those players must choose whether to accept. Expect only a handful to accept. Those who accept are no longer free agents.
The non-tender deadline is December 12th. That is when teams decide whether to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players. These players have fewer than six years of service time, and are under team control for 2012 if the team wants them. If not, the players are non-tendered and become free agents. We'll be adding many names to the free agent list on December 12th.
This is a modified version of a post by Tim Dierkes from December, 2009.
Tony Reagins Out As Angels GM
It's never fair to evaluate a general manager by one trade, or to judge a trade after one year, but the Mike Napoli–Vernon Wells swap didn't help Angels GM Tony Reagins' chances of keeping his job. That Napoli had back-to-back multihomer games against his former team for the playoff-bound Rangers this week as Wells sputtered to the finish line may have helped owner Arte Moreno decide it was time for change.
The Angels announced that Reagins resigned, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times (on Twitter). He'll remain with the club as a special assistant, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times (on Twitter).
The Angels won 100 games and the AL West in Reagins' first full season, 2008. They repeated as division champions the following season, but haven't been back to the playoffs since. They finished with 80 wins a year ago and wrapped up the 2011 campaign with 86 wins.
As our Transaction Tracker shows, Reagins has shaped the Angels roster since being promoted to his current role in 2007. For example, he signed Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana to extensions, traded for Dan Haren and acquired Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Scott Downs on the free agent market.
A number of current Angels, including Mike Trout, were drafted under Reagins' regime. Eddie Bane, who is now on the Tigers' scouting staff, was Reagins' scouting director until the Angels replaced him last year.
The Cubs are also looking for a general manager and it appears that the Orioles could soon be searching for one as well. Familiarize yourself with candidates around the league by checking out MLBTR's list of GM Candidates.