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Injury Notes: Meadows, Lorenzen, Kopech, Boesch

By charliewilmoth | March 19, 2016 at 9:20am CDT

Pirates prospect Austin Meadows had surgery to fix an orbital fracture, Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets. He will return to action in an estimated six to eight weeks. The injury occurred earlier this spring, when Meadows got hit by a ball while playing catch. MLB.com currently ranks Meadows the Pirates’ second-best prospect. After batting .307/.357/.407 for Class A+ Bradenton last year, Meadows will likely begin his 2016 season at Double-A Altoona, at least after he’s finished with any rehab assignments. Here are more quick injury notes.

  • Reds pitcher Michael Lorenzen was examined earlier this week by Dr. Timothy Kremchek earlier this week, and he will not throw for “another couple of weeks,” MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets. Lorenzen was previously diagnosed with a mild UCL sprain. He had been set to compete for a job in the Reds’ currently injury-riddled rotation. The 24-year-old Lorenzen posted a 5.40 ERA, 6.6 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 113 1/3 innings in his rookie season with the Reds last year.
  • Red Sox prospect Michael Kopech had a screw inserted into his right hand Tuesday to stabilize a fracture he suffered while fighting with a teammate, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. He will be out about six weeks, at which point he will begin getting ready for the season. As Speier notes, 2016 will be the second straight shortened season for Kopech, who served a 50-game suspension last year for use of the stimulant Oxilofrine. The 2014 first-round pick posted a 2.63 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 65 innings with Class A Greenville last year. He’s currently ranked the Red Sox’ fifth-best prospect.
  • Another Red Sock, outfielder Brennan Boesch, broke his wrist while attempting to make a catch on Friday, John Tomase of WEEI.com writes. Boesch’s return date is unknown. The Red Sox signed Boesch to a minor-league deal in January after he split the 2015 season between Cincinnati and Triple-A Louisville, hitting well in the minors but batting .146/.191/.202 in 94 plate appearances in the big leagues. The 30-year-old is best known for his three years of semi-regular duty with the Tigers from 2010-2012.
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Week In Review: 3/12/16 – 3/18/16

By charliewilmoth | March 19, 2016 at 8:35am CDT

Here’s a look back at the past week at MLBTR.

Key Move

  • 1B Adam LaRoche retired amidst a disagreement with the White Sox about his son’s presence in the team’s clubhouse. (Here’s more on LaRoche’s situation.)

Signed / Agreed To Terms

  • Reds – P Alfredo Simon (one year)

Claimed

  • Athletics – P Andrew Triggs (from Orioles)
  • Mariners – C Rob Brantly (from White Sox)

Outrighted

  • Twins – P Montreal Robertson (link)
  • White Sox – P Zach Phillips (link)

Released

  • Mets – IF Ruben Tejada (link)
  • Pirates – P Jesse Biddle (link)
  • Reds – P Carlos Contreras (link)
  • Braves – P Kyle Kendrick, P Chris Volstad (link)
  • Mariners – 1B Gaby Sanchez (link)

Returned

  • Braves – Rule 5 pick Evan Rutckyj (to Yankees; link)

Retired

  • P Brad Penny (link)
  • P Rafael Soriano (link)

Key Minor League Signings

  • Indians – OF Marlon Byrd (link)
  • Mariners – P Justin De Fratus (previously released; link)
  • Padres – IF Mike Olt (link)
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NL Notes: Cueto, Jennings, Pirates

By charliewilmoth | March 14, 2016 at 10:40pm CDT

Giants starter Johnny Cueto was hit in the head on a Billy Burns liner on the first pitch of his outing Monday night, according to various reporters, including the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman. Cueto stayed in the game and pitched three innings, but was checked by team doctors after pitching and will head to the hospital in accordance with team protocol (Twitter links). One would think the Giants would have removed Cueto from the game after the incident if they had considered the issue serious (acknowledging, of course, that pro sports teams have at times underestimated the impact of potential concussions). There would have been no reason for the Giants to keep Cueto in a Spring Training game if they had any indication he was hurt. Still, the situation bears monitoring. Here’s more from around the NL.

  • The grievance filed by the Marlins against the Nationals regarding former Marlins GM and manager Dan Jennings was settled in favor of the Nationals, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes. The Nationals are paying Jennings $115K to be a special assistant to GM Mike Rizzo. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported yesterday that the Marlins took issue with that salary because they owed Jennings $1.5MM based on his previous contract with them, minus his salary in his new position. The Marlins thought the Nats’ $115K salary was too low given Jennings’ responsibilities, and that they were therefore on the hook for too much of his remaining salary. Via Janes, though, the disagreement has been resolved. “It’€™s an old grievance, and it has been settled,” says Rizzo.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington is excited about his organization’s Triple-A rotation, Stephen A. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. The Bucs today optioned top prospects Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon to Triple-A Indianapolis and reassigned fellow starters Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault and Trevor Williams. (They also optioned outfielder Harold Ramirez and reassigned catcher Reese McGuire and lefty Kelvin Marte.) Of those starting pitchers, Glasnow and Taillon are the headliners, but Kuhl, Brault and Williams are all prospects in their own right. All could wind up pitching at Indianapolis this year (although perhaps not right away, as Nesbitt notes, since the Bucs might need to preserve a spot there for a depth starter like Kyle Lobstein or Wilfredo Boscan.) “The future is bright,” says Huntington. “You run Taillon, Glasnow, Kuhl, Brault and Williams out in one setting — that’s a very exciting group. … Each one of them brings something that’s very, very intriguing. Now you put that group of five together, it bodes well for our future.” Kuhl is a sinkerballer who pitched well for Double-A Altoona last season. Brault, a lefty, excelled at Class A+ and Double-A after arriving last winter in the trade that sent Travis Snider to Baltimore. And Williams is a recent arrival who the Bucs acquired from the Marlins when pitching guru Jim Benedict headed to Miami.
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Central Notes: Gee, Tigers, Wacha

By charliewilmoth and Steve Adams | March 14, 2016 at 8:29pm CDT

Right-hander Dillon Gee has an opt-out clause in his contract that will allow him to become a free agent if he is not added to the 40-man roster tomorrow, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. (FOX’s Ken Rosenthal reported the March 15 date back in December.) According to Flanagan, the Royals have been impressed by Gee’s early results as well as his bullpen sessions, making him a good bet to land with the club. Gee, 29, has yielded a run on five hits and two walks with three strikeouts thus far in camp and could be in line for a bullpen role, where he’d also serve as rotation depth, per Flanagan. The 29-year-old’s contract contains a $2MM base salary and contains $700K worth of incentives based on relief appearances and $3.3MM worth of incentives tied to rotation work. Though he struggled through a down season last year in the Majors and at Triple-A, Gee has a track record as a dependable starter, having pitched to a 3.91 ERA in 639 2/3 innings with the Mets from 2010-14. As Flanagan points out, the Royals have an easy 40-man move to accommodate Gee, should they choose, as lefty Mike Minor can be transferred to the 60-day DL. Here’s more from the Central divisions.

  • The transition from Dave Dombrowski to Al Avila in the Tigers’ front office last year was completed in secret, but that hasn’t stopped Dombrowski from remaining friends, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. In early August, Avila received a phone call from owner Mike Ilitch, and Avila (after receiving a host of assurances that the Tigers would be able to commit more heavily to analytics, scouting and the international market) agreed to take the Tigers’ GM job during that conversation, three days before Ilitch fired Dombrowski. The situation was “awkward,”as both Dombrowski and Avila describe it — Avila had been Dombrowski’s assistant GM, and the two had worked together for decades in both the Tigers and Marlins organizations. Still, the two remain friendly. “I’€™m really happy for him,” Dombrowski says. “He’€™s always worked hard, very knowledgeable, and has been very loyal. I know it was awkward, but I’™m glad he got this opportunity.”
  • Cardinals starter Michael Wacha makes an interesting extension candidate, writes Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Frederickson quotes Wacha saying that he isn’t aware of any extension discussions. It’s easy to imagine why there might be mutual interest in a deal, though — an extension could potentially keep Wacha in St. Louis longer, and, as Frederickson implies, would begin to increase in cost just as the Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia deals are set to expire. Of course, long-term deals for pitchers can be risky (Garcia’s long-term deal, for example, hasn’t gone perfectly), and Wacha has been in the league long enough that an extension would likely require a fairly significant commitment. The last starting pitcher with between two and three years of service time to receive an extension was Corey Kluber, who got $38.5MM guaranteed from the Indians following his 2014 Cy Young season.
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Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

By charliewilmoth | March 10, 2016 at 12:50pm CDT

David Stearns took the Brewers’ GM job in September and acted decisively to continue the organization’s rebuilding plan. The team won’t be very good in 2016, but its future suddenly looks bright.

Major League Signings

  • 1B Chris Carter: one year, $2.5MM

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Franklin Morales, Blaine Boyer, Chris Capuano, Cesar Jimenez, Eric Young Jr., Will Middlebrooks, Alex Presley, Jake Elmore

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired SP Chase Anderson, SS Isan Diaz and IF Aaron Hill from Diamondbacks for SS Jean Segura and P Tyler Wagner
  • Acquired C Jacob Nottingham and P Bubba Derby from Athletics for OF Khris Davis
  • Acquired P Carlos Herrera, P Daniel Missaki and P Freddy Peralta from Mariners for 1B Adam Lind
  • Acquired 2B Javier Betancourt and C Manny Pina from Tigers for P Francisco Rodriguez
  • Acquired OF Rymer Liriano from Padres for P Trevor Seidenberger
  • Acquired OF Keon Broxton and P Trey Supak from Pirates for 1B Jason Rogers
  • Acquired OF Ramon Flores from Mariners for IF Luis Sardinas
  • Acquired IF Jonathan Villar from Astros for P Cy Sneed
  • Acquired 3B Garin Cecchini from Red Sox for cash
  • Claimed SP Sean Nolin from Athletics
  • Claimed C Josmil Pinto from Padres
  • Claimed 1B Andy Wilkins from Rangers
  • Claimed OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis from Mets
  • Claimed P Junior Guerra from White Sox
  • Selected 2B Colin Walsh from Athletics and P Zack Jones from Twins in the Rule 5 Draft

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

  • Kyle Lohse

Needs Addressed

This time last year, the Brewers were in a holding pattern. Their core was getting older and more expensive, and they were coming off an 82-80 2014 season and a second-half collapse. But their decent collection of veteran talent (Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, and so on) and weak farm system meant that initiating a rebuilding process right away might have been more painful than just hoping for the team to be competitive in the short term and waiting to rebuild.

Their 2014-15 offseason was, accordingly, a tepid one. They traded Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada, but actually returned a veteran (Adam Lind) rather than young talent in the Estrada trade and generally didn’t make any dynamic moves to change the direction of their franchise.

That changed quickly when the 2015 season began and the Brewers found themselves in a 5-18 hole by May 1. The terrible start perhaps provided the organization with clarity it needed, and the team quickly replaced manager Ron Roenicke with Craig Counsell and began shipping out veterans (including Gomez, Mike Fiers, Gerardo Parra, Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Broxton and Neal Cotts). They also hired the youthful David Stearns (who recently appeared on the MLBTR Podcast) to be their new GM, with Doug Melvin moving into an advisory role.

Stearns had already been part of one aggressive rebuilding project as assistant GM of the Astros, and at least at this early point, it looks like he at least has the fortitude to lead one in Milwaukee. His first offseason was a busy one, as he continued dealing veterans and adding to an increasingly impressive base of young talent while reshaping the organization to fit his vision.

It’s hard to tell what the Brewers’ Opening Day roster might look like. Holdovers Lucroy, Braun and Scooter Gennett will occupy familiar spots, but the rest of the lineup is in flux. First base will likely be occupied, at least in part, by Chris Carter, the only big-league free agent the Brewers signed this winter. Carter has tremendous raw power but strikes out constantly and is a defensive liability. He’s also 29 and doesn’t seem likely to age well. He should, however, bat closer to .220 or .230 than the .199 he hit last year. If he can get his average any higher than that, he might be a tempting trade-deadline acquisition for a contender. The Brewers could also take him to arbitration and keep him through 2018 if he’s successful. Given Carter’s power and the Brewers’ ability to control him beyond 2016, $2.5MM seems like a very reasonable price to have paid, particularly with the Orioles paying more than twice as much for Pedro Alvarez, who is in many ways a similar player.

Carter replaces Adam Lind and (to a lesser extent) Jason Rogers, who both headed elsewhere in trades. For one year of Lind, the Brewers got a trio of very young arms in Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki and Freddy Peralta. None of them have yet turned 20, but all have posted impressive peripheral numbers in the very low minors. None are yet highly rated, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see one of them emerge as a serious prospect within a year or two. For Rogers, they got Keon Broxton (a young outfielder who lacks offensive upside but has blazing speed, strong defensive ability and a fresh service-time clock) and Trey Supak, a 2014 second-round pick who will join Herrera, Missaki and Peralta among the Brewers’ growing group of interesting lottery-ticket arms.

2015 shortstop Jean Segura is also gone after a clever trade to the Diamondbacks. For their willingness to eat $5.5MM of the remaining contract of veteran infielder Aaron Hill (who Counsell says will get the first shot at the Brewers’ open third base job), the Brewers arguably got not only the best current big-leaguer in the deal (Chase Anderson, a fourth starter type who should help Milwaukee’s rotation get through the team’s rebuilding period) but also the highest-upside player (infielder Isan Diaz, who’s far from the Majors but hit brilliantly for both average and power last year as a 19-year-old in the Pioneer League). Segura, meanwhile, has not developed since his 2013 breakout, and his 93 strikeouts and 13 walks in 2015 suggest he has plenty of improving to do if he’s going to be an asset. The Brewers also gave up starting pitcher Tyler Wagner, who posted a good ERA last season at Double-A Biloxi but was somewhat old for the level and was not particularly impressive, either in terms of his stuff or his results, in a brief trial in the big leagues. Wagner’s ability to get ground balls could lead to a career as a back-of-the-rotation type in the Majors, and Segura is young and could perhaps turn his career around, but it doesn’t look like the Brewers gave up much.

Stearns also made two other trades involving potential utility infielders. First, he sent pitcher and 2014 third-round pick Cy Sneed to Houston for Jonathan Villar. Sneed hasn’t yet pitched at Double-A, although his numbers were promising in his first pro season. Villar, meanwhile, has never really hit much (his .284 average in a small sample in the big leagues in 2015 notwithstanding). He runs the bases well and can play multiple positions, though, and he has five years of service time remaining before free agency. The deal was Stearns’ only trade of a minor-leaguer for a big-leaguer this offseason and appears to run counter to much of what the Brewers tried to achieve this offseason, although that isn’t necessarily a big deal — Sneed is less than two years younger than Villar and isn’t a top prospect.

Stearns then shipped 2B/SS Luis Sardinas to Seattle. Sardinas had been in the Brewers organization for less than a year and is still just 22, but his recent track record (and especially his .282/.319/.359 line last season at hitter-friendly Triple-A Colorado Springs) raises questions about whether he’ll hit even as well as Villar currently does. In return, the Brewers received Ramon Flores, a young left-handed hitter with some on-base ability and offensive upside who could become a fourth outfielder. He could get that chance as soon as this year, since he’s out of options and is fully recovered from an ankle injury he suffered last August.

Questions Remaining

There are many, which isn’t surprising, given that the Brewers don’t figure to contend this year. Villar seems likely to win the shortstop job, but he could move to second once top prospect Orlando Arcia is promoted. That could bump default second baseman Gennett, who’s coming off a disappointing 2015 season, to the bench. At third, it’s hard to believe the Brewers will remain satisfied with Hill if he continues to perform as he has the last two seasons. If he falters, minor-league signee Will Middlebrooks or trade acquisition Garin Cecchini could take over; those players have been disappointing in recent years as well, but at least they’re younger. (Since none of those options look particularly inspiring, it might have been interesting to see the Brewers sign free agent third baseman David Freese, who could help out at the position and potentially return a prospect at the deadline.)

Left field and right field appear set with Braun and Domingo Santana, but what will happen in center is unclear. Brett Phillips, who was part of the Carlos Gomez trade package along with Santana, could be the long-term answer at the position. He has limited experience in the high minors (and is currently dealing with an oblique strain), however, so he’s unlikely to start the season in the bigs. That leaves a variety of potential center field options to start the season, including Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Broxton and perhaps Shane Peterson or Flores. One of the more interesting possibilities is Rymer Liriano, a former top prospect the Brewers acquired in a minor deal in January after the Padres designated him for assignment. Liriano hasn’t performed to expectations since he missed the 2013 season due to an elbow injury, but he’s still just 24, appears to have a bit of offensive ability and hit fairly well last year, albeit in a hitter-friendly environment at Triple-A El Paso. Getting Liriano for minor-league reliever Trevor Seidenberger could prove to be a small coup for the Brewers.

The Brewers’ rotation, in contrast, is relatively set, with Jimmy Nelson, Wily Peralta, Taylor Jungmann, Matt Garza and Anderson. (Zach Davies, one of last year’s trade acquisitions, did enough down the stretch to warrant consideration for a rotation spot, but could end up at Triple-A unless the Brewers clear space by, say, unloading a portion of Garza’s contract in a deal.) There will be competition in the bullpen, though, including at the closer spot. In November, the Brewers sent veteran fireman Francisco Rodriguez to Detroit for infielder Javier Betancourt and a player to be named, later revealed to be journeyman catcher Manny Pina. Betancourt is a tough player to evaluate — he didn’t hit much in 2015, but some of that is likely due to the fact that he was barely 20 and playing against older competition in the Florida State League. He could eventually become an everyday second baseman, but he doesn’t figure to contribute this season.

In K-Rod’s absence, Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith will battle for the closer spot. There will be competition for bullpen spots elsewhere, but Michael Blazek and Corey Knebel appear likely to win jobs after having solid 2015 seasons.

In the meantime, the Brewers have only a handful of veterans left who might be tradable. Chief among them is Lucroy, whose terrific contract (which contains a cheap 2017 option) and strong track record make him a significant asset despite a disappointing and injury-shortened 2015 season. It’s still possible the Brewers could deal him before they break camp, and the timing of such a deal might make sense. Lucroy is now catching in Spring Training games, so any interested teams can confirm he’s healthy, and some teams might be slightly reluctant to trade for a starting catcher once a season has begun. (Lucroy has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to eight teams, although given his recent comments about preferring to play for a winning team, that might not be an obstacle.)

Braun could eventually be dealt, too, although the Brewers might have to pay some of the $95MM remaining on his contract. Now might not be right time to trade him, since had back surgery in October, but if he gets off to a good start this season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on the market this summer. Relievers like Jeffress, Tyler Thornburg and especially Smith could also attract interest, and Peralta could be a possibility as well if he pitches well for a few months.

Deal Of Note

USATSI_9128677_154513410_lowresThe offseason trade that netted the Brewers their most significant return was the deal that sent Khris Davis to Oakland for Jacob Nottingham and Bubba Derby. Davis has four years of control remaining and has significant raw power, belting 49 home runs in the past two seasons. He is, however, 28, and has obvious weaknesses, including generally weak on-base percentages and limited defensive value. It’s possible his increased walk total in only his second full season in the league last year indicates a promising future, but given his age, it’s more likely that the Brewers traded him somewhere near the peak of his value.

In return, they received Bubba Derby — a righty sixth-round pick from the 2015 draft who carved up short-season ball in his pro debut — and catcher Jacob Nottingham (pictured). Nottingham (who had already been traded once, going from Houston to Oakland in the Scott Kazmir deal) is currently the more valuable of the two pieces. He broke out in 2015 at Classes A and A+, posting a .316/.372/.505 line as a 20-year-old. If he can stick at catcher, his offensive ability could make him very valuable, although reports on his defense are mixed. Even if he has to move to another position, he has the chance to contribute, perhaps even as a first baseman if he can continue developing the power that helped him hit 17 home runs this season.

Overview

When Stearns arrived, the Brewers’ rebuild was already in progress, and he’s spent the offseason continuing what Melvin had already started. More than that, though, Stearns began to reconfigure the organization to suit his preferences. That was clear in his acquisition of former Astros players like Carter, Nottingham, Villar and minor-league signees Alex Presley and Jake Elmore, as well as Stearns’ plentiful waiver claims and Rule 5 selections this winter.

Time will tell how many of these acquisitions turn out to be important ones, but it’s clear that Stearns improved a farm system that was already getting better. In 2014, Baseball America ranked the Brewers’ farm system the second worst of any organization. This year, the Brewers ranked ninth best. That improvement is primarily due to prospects like Arcia, Phillips and Trent Clark, all of whom were acquired under Melvin.

Then again, most of Milwaukee’s best trade assets (like Gomez, who Melvin dealt to get a package that included Phillips) had already been dealt by the time Stearns arrived. Much of the talent Stearns had available to trade this offseason didn’t appear likely to return top-100-type prospects, so Stearns instead sought potential role players with a bit of upside (like Anderson, Liriano, Flores and Broxton) and interesting players from the low minors (like Diaz, Derby, Herrera, Misaki, Peralta and Supak). That approach wasn’t glamorous, but it seems likely to yield a couple competent complementary players in the short term, and in the long term, it wouldn’t be surprising if one or two of the very young players the Brewers acquired emerged as top prospects.

In the meantime, the Brewers will attempt to piece together which of their new players might be parts of their next competitive team. Given the talent they have on the way — with Arcia, Phillips, and righty Jorge Lopez all sticking in the big leagues this year or next and a raft of interesting players below them — they could become fun to watch reasonably quickly, even if it takes a few years for them to become competitive in a tough NL Central division.

Let’s turn it over to MLBTR readers with a poll (link to poll for mobile app users)…


Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
.

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2015-16 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

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Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

By charliewilmoth | March 8, 2016 at 11:45pm CDT

We’ll be reviewing the offseason moves of all thirty teams over the next several weeks. First up: the Cincinnati Reds.

After winning just 64 games in 2015, the Reds spent the winter continuing their rebuild, with what appear to be tepid results.

Major League Signings

  • RP Blake Wood: one year, $600K

Notable Minor League Signings

  • J.C. Ramirez, Carlos Triunfel, Ryan Mattheus (re-signed), Pedro Villarreal (re-signed), Jordan Pacheco, Jonathan Sanchez

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired 3B Eric Jagielo, 2B Tony Renda, P Caleb Cotham and P Rookie Davis from Yankees for RP Aroldis Chapman
  • Acquired 2B Jose Peraza, 2B/OF Brandon Dixon and OF Scott Schebler as part of a three-team trade for 3B Todd Frazier
  • Selected P Chris O’Grady from Angels in the Rule 5 Draft
  • Selected OF Jake Cave from Yankees in the Rule 5 Draft

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

  • Burke Badenhop, Manny Parra, Skip Schumaker, Brayan Pena, Sean Marshall

Needs Addressed

After an ugly 2015 campaign, the Reds faced the likelihood of another bleak year in the tough NL Central, so with a negligible chance of contending, they opted to continue trading veterans. They had already dealt Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon prior to the 2015 season and Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Marlon Byrd after they fell out of contention, so their efforts this winter hardly were new territory.

In filling out their 2016 team, then, the Reds mostly focused on acquiring ready or nearly-ready youngsters, as well as a handful of cheaper veterans. Of the players acquired in their two significant trades this winter, Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler and Caleb Cotham appear likely to contribute in 2016, with others potentially entering the picture near the end of the season.

The Reds also grabbed a variety of low-cost arms to fill out a bullpen that will be without star closer Aroldis Chapman and 2015 contributors Burke Badenhop and Manny Parra — they re-signed low-wattage arms Ryan Mattheus and Pedro Villarreal, and added Blake Wood on their only big-league deal of the offseason. Wood pitched the 2015 season in the Pirates’ Triple-A bullpen and hasn’t appeared in the Majors since April 2014, but he might be more interesting than his modest pedigree suggests. He’s a very hard thrower who took a step forward with his control last year, with a 3.8 BB/9 that was better than his career marks in that category in the Majors or Triple-A. In any case, with Chapman gone, the Reds will go forward with a weakened bullpen built around J.J. Hoover, Jumbo Diaz and Tony Cingrani.

Questions Remaining

There’s plenty for the Reds to sort out in their rotation. Homer Bailey (elbow) and John Lamb (back) won’t be ready to start the season, but manager Bryan Price still recently named nine potential rotation candidates — Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, Jon Moscot, Michael Lorenzen, Cody Reed, Robert Stephenson, Brandon Finnegan, Tim Melville and Jonathan Sanchez. DeSclafani and Iglesias appear very likely to win spots, but that still leaves three more. Of the remaining contenders, top prospect Stephenson is the most interesting, although he walked 27 batters in his first 55 2/3 innings at Triple-A last season, so there’s little reason for the Reds to rush him to the big leagues. The same goes for Reed, who pitched well at Double-A Pensacola after arriving in the Cueto trade last summer but hasn’t even appeared at Triple-A yet. Finnegan, a key to the Cueto trade, is perhaps a more realistic bet to win a spot (although he could also wind up in the bullpen).

Aside from Finnegan and Iglesias, who’s a strikeout pitcher who quietly had a strong rookie season in 2015 and could take a step forward this year, the Reds’ likely April rotation doesn’t look like anything special. (Perhaps one could include DeSclafani with Finnegan and Iglesias, since DeSclafani notched a remarkable 65 strikeouts and nine walks from the beginning of last August through the end of the season.) In fact, one could argue that the Reds should have added a starting pitcher on a one-year deal to fill a rotation spot for a few months and hopefully land a prospect at the deadline. But the Reds’ starting pitching could get downright interesting by the summer, with the returns of Bailey and Lamb and the potential promotions of Stephenson and/or Reed.

It is, unfortunately, harder to see similar upside among the Reds’ young position players (although it’s possible top prospect Jesse Winker could join the team’s outfield late in the season). The Reds’ offense will again be anchored by Joey Votto, one of the best in the game at controlling the strike zone. Votto, though, appears likely to take a step back after a monster 7.4 fWAR season in 2015, and the Reds are also subtracting Todd Frazier from a collection of position players that finished 20th in the Majors in fWAR last season.

Some of Frazier’s loss could be balanced by the return of catcher Devin Mesoraco, who missed most of last season. Brayan Pena and Tucker Barnhart were capable, but little more, in Mesoraco’s absence, and Mesoraco’s bat could be a big help. His ability to return to health and productivity behind the plate could be a key factor in the team’s contention timeline.

The problem is that the position players now slated to join the Reds’ once-mighty lineup — Schebler, Adam Duvall, Peraza — appear to have limited upside. Schebler had two very good years in the minors in 2013 and 2014 but had a pedestrian 2015 at Triple-A; he looks like he’ll have enough power to stick in the big leagues, but he might be a little stretched as a regular. Duvall could have 30-homer power, but with plenty of strikeouts and a low batting average, and he’s already 27. And Peraza possesses obvious tools but is very hard to get a read on — he has plenty of baserunning and defensive ability, but his complete lack of power figures to hold him back offensively.

These are, perhaps, glass-half-empty evaluations of these players, but it wasn’t long ago that the Reds had a fair number of valuable veterans, and so far, it appears they haven’t gotten much for them (with the possible exception of their return in the Cueto trade). They’ll now spend the next couple years giving tryouts to various players acquired in those underwhelming deals.

Some of that state of affairs isn’t really the club’s fault. Chapman’s domestic violence allegations reduced his trade value to pennies on the dollar, and the Reds also had offseason trades scuttled when Brandon Phillips refused to waive his no-trade rights and when medical issues derailed a deal that would have sent Jay Bruce to Toronto.

The real victim of Chapman’s alleged actions, of course, was his girlfriend. But looking at the matter from a team perspective, the situation had to have been frustrating for the Reds. They had previously had a deal in place that would have sent Chapman to the Dodgers for two top prospects. Reports indicated that neither of those were among the Dodgers’ best, but Peraza’s name repeatedly came up. Peraza, despite his flaws, is clearly a more interesting prospect than any of the four the Reds ultimately acquired for Chapman, and getting Peraza in the Chapman deal would have allowed the Reds to try to acquire other talent in return for Frazier. Instead, the Reds got Caleb Cotham, Rookie Davis, Eric Jagielo and Tony Renda in return for Chapman, getting only a ready-now reliever (Cotham), a mid-grade starting pitching prospect (Davis) and two somewhat fringy position players in return for perhaps the game’s most dominant closer. There are scenarios in which the deal turns out well for the Reds — maybe Davis will improve his command and blossom into a good starter, or maybe Jagielo’s above-average power will translate better than expected against advanced pitching. Overall, though, it looks like the Reds came up far short of what might have been expected heading to the offseason.

Deal Of Note

USATSI_9136240_154513410_lowresPerhaps the Reds’ most disappointing deal, though, was the three-team trade that sent Frazier to the White Sox. This time, there were no obstacles standing in the way of the Reds trading their star, and unlike Chapman (who will, even with his recent suspension, still be eligible for free agency after 2016), Frazier still has two years of control remaining. Given his plus power, strong defense and reasonable contract situation, there was no reason for the Reds not to get good value for Frazier. It appears, however, that they didn’t. Peraza (pictured) is certainly a strong prospect and could ultimately become a fixture at second base once Phillips departs, but he’s limited by his extreme lack of power and inability to draw walks. There is precedent for a player like Peraza having lots of success — perhaps he could become the next Dee Gordon. But that outcome, or anything close to it, may be optimistic.

It’s the other two players in the deal, though, who are the head-scratchers. Schebler’s future likely is in left field, but the evidence of whether he can hit enough to stick at that position is mixed. And Brandon Dixon’s inclusion in the trade was strange, since he’s been unimpressive at every minor-league stop other than a brief outburst at Class A+ Rancho Cucamonga early last season, and he turned 24 shortly after the deal. Strangely, the Dodgers, who essentially sent three of their own young players to Cincinnati in exchange for three more youngsters from the White Sox, appear to have done significantly better than the Reds did, getting a hard-throwing and advanced starting pitching prospect in Frankie Montas (although Montas is now set to miss the beginning of the season after having rib surgery), plus young second baseman Micah Johnson (who has better power and plate discipline than Peraza, though he doesn’t profile as well defensively) and outfielder Trayce Thompson (who has struggled to make headway in the high minors but had a good big-league debut last year and looks like a much better talent than Dixon). Time will tell whether the Reds got the right players, but the consensus seems to have been that their return was underwhelming, and that they might have done better by cutting out the Dodgers and dealing with the White Sox directly.

Overview

The Reds didn’t figure to contend in 2016, and they’ll spend it as rebuilding teams traditionally do — sorting through young talent, enjoying the rights to a plum draft pick (No. 2 overall), and setting their sights on the future. Given that they were built around an aging and increasingly expensive core, it’s hard to argue with that plan. What is debatable is whether they’re implementing it well, and as enthusiastically as they should. The returns from their trades so far are likely to produce some solid contributors, but perhaps not as much value as Reds fans might have hoped, given Chapman and Frazier’s obvious value on the field. The Reds have, to some degree, been victims of circumstance, and it’s not easy to get teams to give up top prospects these days. Still, they probably haven’t gotten enough.

Meanwhile, there will still be several key veterans left on the 2016 team. The Reds could hardly have been expected to trade Bailey while he was injured, and Phillips and Bruce, even if their deals had gone through, probably would not have returned significant talent anyway. But there’s been virtually no discussion of a trade involving Votto. In fact, prior to a brief update on Votto in late February, there hadn’t been an update at MLBTR in over four years regarding the possibility of a Votto trade.

If the Reds are rebuilding, perhaps a deal involving Votto shouldn’t be taken off of the table. Votto is now inarguably the face of their franchise, and he’s under team control through 2024, so they might be planning on him still contributing when they’re ready to compete again. Given that Votto is already 32, though, that seems like an overly ambitious plan. After Votto’s monster 2015, he ought to have considerable trade value, despite his huge contract. There’s also the possibility that the back end of that deal (which guarantees Votto $25MM per season through 2023, when he will be 39) could hamper the Reds’ ability to compete in the future.

Of course, it’s easy for an outsider to say that a rebuilding team should trade its superstar. The value Votto could bring to the 2016 Reds in terms of their marketability and watchability is much harder to quantify than his on-field value. But the Reds’ situation with regard to Votto is typical of the plight many rebuilding teams face. The quickest path forward seems to be to turn their backs on the past, but refusing to turn around can be painful.

What do MLBTR readers think of the club’s offseason? Weigh in on the poll below (link to poll for mobile app users)…

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2015-16 Offseason In Review Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Originals

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White Sox To Sign Austin Jackson

By charliewilmoth | March 6, 2016 at 4:46pm CDT

The White Sox have agreed to terms with outfielder Austin Jackson on a $5MM contract, Jon Heyman writes (all Twitter links). Jackson is a Scott Boras client.

Heyman notes that Jackson could have signed with the Angels for more money, but preferred to stay in Chicago (where he played with the Cubs last season) and play center field, rather than left. Late last month, it was reported that Jackson had rejected an offer from the Angels in the $5MM-$6MM range.

USATSI_8834544_154513410_lowresJackson, 29, batted .267/.311/.385 in 527 plate appearances last season, spending most of the year with the Mariners before heading to the Cubs in a late-August deal. His hitting has, on the whole, been mildly disappointing the past two seasons, as he struggled to hit home runs in pitcher-friendly Seattle and has largely continued his career-long trend of being strikeout-prone. He has generally produced good value on the bases, however (despite stealing only 17 bases compared to ten times caught last year). Jackson is also fairly young and has maintained a reasonably high baseline level of performance, producing over 2 fWAR in five of his six seasons in the big leagues.

Jackson played center in Seattle but spent most of his time in the corners after being traded. His defense has graded as about average in center field — UZR rated him as 7.5 runs above average in center last season but was less favorable in the two years before that, while Defensive Runs Saved has marked him as about average in all of the last three seasons. He has rated as a better defender than incumbent White Sox center fielder Adam Eaton, who had a good year with the bat in 2015. It’s possible Eaton could move to a corner, or maybe Jackson could take at bats in center when Eaton isn’t playing and also play occasionally in a corner himself. Eaton is currently dealing with a shoulder issue, but via CSN Chicago’s Dan Hayes (on Twitter), the White Sox do not seem overly concerned about Eaton’s health.

It isn’t surprising that the White Sox would be interested in Jackson, given their reported pursuits of outfielders like Dexter Fowler and Alex Gordon. Jackson’s signing will likely cut into Avisail Garcia’s playing time, and though Jackson is far from a perfect player, he appears to be a significant upgrade (keeping in mind that Garcia is 24 and could improve). Garcia hit a disappointing .257/.309/.365 last season while struggling defensively in right. Jackson’s presence strengthens a White Sox defense that rated as worst in the Majors last season, via Fangraphs. The Jackson deal continues a busy South Side offseason that has also included the additions of Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie, Mat Latos, Alex Avila, Dioner Navarro and others, as the Sox have attempted to remake a roster that came up well short of expectations in a  76-win 2015 season.

Jackson’s $5MM price tag appears very reasonable for a player of his caliber. Before last offseason began, MLBTR projected that Jackson would receive more than twice that much, at $12MM for one year. Perhaps, though, the slow-developing outfield market influenced Jackson’s payday. Last week, MLBTR’s Steve Adams listed the White Sox as one of several teams that could have interest in Jackson.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Chicago White Sox Newsstand Transactions Austin Jackson

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Blue Jays Notes: Cecil, Sanchez, Pennington

By charliewilmoth | March 5, 2016 at 4:43pm CDT

Brett Cecil, who is eligible for free agency after the 2016 season, is “open” to an extension with the Jays, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (who, by the way, chatted with Zach Links and MLBTR readers on Periscope earlier today). Cecil is not aware of any extension talks between the two sides. “There’s not necessarily going to be demands on what it’s got to be,” he says. “If they want to talk then we can talk. If not then we don’t.” As Nicholson-Smith notes, Cecil appears to be in line for a significant payday, whether that’s with the Blue Jays or with another team. He posted a 2.48 ERA, with an outstanding 11.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 last season, and this past winter saw good non-closing relievers like Darren O’Day and Ryan Madson land contracts well north of $20MM. And Cecil compares favorably to fellow lefty Tony Sipp, who got $18MM from the Astros. Here’s more from Toronto.

  • It’s possible Aaron Sanchez could start the season in the minors, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm writes. If Gavin Floyd or Jesse Chavez wins the last spot in the rotation, but the Jays feel Sanchez and the team would best served by having him continue to develop as a starter rather than as a reliever. That path could make sense, given Sanchez’s age (he’s still just 23), former top prospect status, and his control problems while serving as a starter in both the Majors and minors. Last year, he allowed 37 walks in 66 innings as a starter. He has also walked over four batters per nine innings in both Triple-A and Double-A, and he was mostly used as a starter in his stints there.
  • Earlier today, we learned about longtime first baseman Dan Johnson trying his hand as a pitcher with the Rays. But Johnson isn’t the only position player to attract recent interest as a pitcher. New Angels infielder Cliff Pennington attracted a bit of interest as a pitcher this offseason after making a relief appearance with the Jays in the playoffs last year, reports MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez. “In talking to some teams about straight utility, there was maybe some talk about maybe pitching a few innings to save a bullpen guy here or there throughout the course of a year,” says Pennington. “Nothing more than six, seven innings in a year. It never was anything that was talked about with the Angels.” Such a role would, obviously, be unusual, and only a handful of players in recent memory — Brooks Kieschnick and Micah Owings being two — have really split time between pitching and another role. Pennington threw 90 MPH in the ALCS last year, though he only retired one of the three batters he faced.
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Toronto Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez Brett Cecil Cliff Pennington

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AL Notes: Correa, Beltran, Gordon

By charliewilmoth | March 5, 2016 at 3:19pm CDT

Astros shortstop Carlos Correa is just the megastar-to-be for Major League Baseball, Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan writes — Correa is not quite as brash as Bryce Harper can sometimes be, but more outwardly confident than Mike Trout, and might just have that kind of exceptional talent. Last season, when he was a 20-year-old rookie, he quickly won over teammates with his play and with his confidence.  “It was kind of like us saying; ’Here you go, dude. You own this place,'” says outfielder George Springer. Here’s more from the American League.

  • Yankees slugger Carlos Beltran hopes to continue playing beyond the expiration of his contract following the 2016 season, ESPN’s Wallace Matthews writes. “My goal is to play 20 years,” Beltran says. “I would love to play 20 years in the big leagues. So that means two more years if possible.” Beltran’s first season in the big leagues was 1998, so playing through 2017 would mean he appeared in 20 straight big-league seasons. Beltran has become more and more of a defensive liability as he’s aged, but his hitting bounced back nicely in 2015, when he batted .276/.337/.471 with 19 home runs. His best path forward after 2016 might be as a DH, although, as Matthews notes, Alex Rodriguez appears set to man that position with the Yankees through 2017.
  • Alex Gordon confirms that the White Sox had strong interest in him this offseason, Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago writes. His first choice, though, was always to head back to the Royals. “After every conversation I had with (agent Casey Close) it was always, ’Have the Royals said anything?’” says Gordon. “This is where I grew up. Its where I wanted to be. Coming from the bad times to really cherish the good times, why not stay here?” Both Gordon and Yoenis Cespedes were reportedly possibilities for the White Sox, although both ended up returning to their former teams, with Gordon taking a $72MM guarantee to stay in Kansas City.
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Chicago White Sox Houston Astros Kansas City Royals New York Yankees Alex Gordon Carlos Beltran Carlos Correa

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Central Notes: Mesoraco, Maybin, Sano

By charliewilmoth | March 5, 2016 at 2:01pm CDT

Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco’s spring debut will come later than expected due to a groin injury, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes. Mesoraco missed most of last season due to hip trouble, and he characterizes his current injury as a minor and expected result of the rehabilitation process. “We had a very small minimal amount of groin and hip flexor tightness, soreness,” he says. “The doctor kind of said this was something that would probably happen once I got back into it. We just slowed things down but everything is feeling fine. I feel good now. It shouldn’t be too much longer.” The absence of Mesoraco, who batted .273/.359/.534 in his 2014 breakout, was one of many disappointments for the Reds last season. Here’s more from the Central divisions.

  • The Tigers are hopeful Cameron Maybin will return by Opening Day and won’t be looking outside the organization for extra outfield help, tweets Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. It was reported earlier this week that Maybin would miss four to six weeks due to a hairline fracture in his left hand. Of course, even the full six weeks would only cause Maybin to miss the first couple weeks of the season, hardly the kind of devastating blow that might require the Tigers to pursue an outfielder with any sort of urgency.
  • Twins slugger Miguel Sano got to the big leagues and thrived in 2015 despite the loss of his daughter the previous offseason, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes. Sano’s daughter Angelica died in December 2014 due to a heart defect. “Last year in Double-A, I cried a lot,” says Sano. “I was really sad. I don’t concentrate too much on playing because I think a lot about my baby.” Sano struggled badly through April at Double-A Chattanooga, batting just .159/.303/.381. He turned his season around from there before his promotion to the bigs, culminating in a 20 at-bat stretch following the All-Star break in which he had seven extra-base hits. “He came back after the All-Star break, and it was just completely different,” says his Double-A manager, Doug Mientkiewicz. “He embarrassed Double-A baseball. I called Terry [Ryan], and I was like, ’I don’t know where he can go, but he needs to go somewhere, because it’s not normal what he’s doing to this league.'” The Twins, of course, promoted Sano to the Majors, where he hit 18 home runs in 80 games and finished third in AL Rookie of the Year balloting.
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Cincinnati Reds Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins Cameron Maybin Devin Mesoraco Doug Mientkiewicz Miguel Sano

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