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Pedro Strop On Cubs’ Interest In Free Agency

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This past offseason was not one to remember for the Cubs, a big-market, high-payroll team that spent a mere $3.5MM on free agents after failing to make the playoffs in 2019. The club also lost quite a few of its own notable free agents, including reliever Pedro Strop, even though the right-hander revealed Wednesday that Chicago had interest in retaining him.

“They did try hard to bring me back. It’s just money-wise, they couldn’t, because they weren’t allowed [with] all the salary cap stuff; they wanted to try to stay below,” Strop said (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times).

The 34-year-old Strop, a Cub from 2013-19, ended up with the National League Central rival Reds on a modest single-season pact worth $1.825MM. The Cubs weren’t even willing to go to those lengths for Strop, however, thanks in part to their desire to stay under the luxury tax (not the nonexistent salary cap) this year. They were one of three teams that had to pay the tax in 2019, when they were forced to fork over a $7.6MM bill. The threshold then was $206MM, but it has climbed to $208MM for 2020. Although they spent next to nothing over the winter, the Cubs project to start this season about $6MM over that mark, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs.

Should the tax really be a concern for the deep-pocketed Cubs? Arguably not. Regardless, there’s a case that the Cubs won’t get hurt by letting Strop walk, even though a divisional foe grabbed him for a relatively inexpensive guarantee. Strop was an excellent late-game option for a large portion of his tenure in Chicago, but he took noticeable steps backward last year. For example, Strop posted the worst full-season run prevention marks of his career (4.97 ERA/4.53 FIP) and one of his highest walk rates (4.32 per nine) across 41 2/3 innings. Furthermore, after averaging more than 95 mph on his fastball in each of his prior seasons as a Cub, his mean velocity dropped to 93.7 in 2019. A Strop rebound remains possible, though, and the Cubs are left to hope he doesn’t return to his old form for a Reds team that bought low on him.

MLBTR Poll: Eloy’s Second Season

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The White Sox made a significant investment in Eloy Jimenez before he ever played a major league game, signing the outfielder to a six-year, $43MM extension last March, and it already looks like a wise decision. The deal Jimenez inked was then a record pact for a prospect with no major league service time, but teammate and fellow outfielder Luis Robert eclipsed that mark when he landed a six-year, $50MM guarantee this past winter.

In signing Jimenez, the White Sox obviated the need to manipulate his service time, clearing the way for the then-consensus top prospect to spend all of the 2019 campaign in the majors. Jimenez didn’t get off to a great start in the first few months of his age-22 season, but his production trended way upward in the second half, leading to an above-average batting line of .267/.315/.513 (116 wRC+) with 31 home runs over 504 plate appearances. And Statcast backed up that production, crediting Jimenez with a .349 expected weighted on-base average (compared to a real wOBA of .343), a hard-hit percentage in the majors’ 92nd percentile and an average exit velocity that ranked in the 87th percentile.

If you want red flags from Jimenez’s rookie season, a couple stand out. For one, even during his second-half surge, he didn’t draw many free passes. His 6 percent walk rate sat well below the league-average mark of 8.5. On the defensive side, Jimenez wasn’t exactly a Gold Glover in left field. Despite finishing in the game’s 70th percentile in Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric, he ended with minus-11 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-11 Outs Above Average and a minus-5.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in the grass. Jimenez’s defensive struggles helped limit him to 1.9 fWAR and 1.4 bWAR during his initial campaign, essentially rendering him an average performer.

The long-suffering White Sox now have designs on being much better than average, considering how active they were in upgrading their roster during the offseason. A sizable leap in overall output from Jimenez in Year 2 of his career could go a long way in helping the team accomplish that in 2020. The question is: How productive do you think he’ll be this season? (Poll links for app users)

Predict Jimenez's OPS
.830-859 30.29% (1,248 votes)
.860-899 27.74% (1,143 votes)
.800-.829 18.13% (747 votes)
.900 or better 16.70% (688 votes)
Under .800 7.14% (294 votes)
Total Votes: 4,120
Predict Jimenez's WAR
2.0-2.9 41.94% (1,649 votes)
3.0-3.9 31.74% (1,248 votes)
4.0 or better 12.79% (503 votes)
1.0-1.9 10.76% (423 votes)
Under 1.0 2.77% (109 votes)
Total Votes: 3,932

8 AL East Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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After taking a look at eight American League East hitters hoping to bounce back from down seasons in 2020, we’ll do the same here with an octet of the division’s pitchers…

Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Red Sox:

The flamethrowing Eovaldi was one of Boston’s many heroes during its World Series run in 2018, convincing the team to re-sign him to a four-year, $68MM contract thereafter. But the first year of the pact was a disaster for both sides, as Eovaldi missed significant time with elbow problems and didn’t perform well when he was able to pitch. The 30-year-old wound up with career-worst numbers in ERA (5.99), FIP (5.90) and BB/9 (4.66), thereby offsetting a personal-high K/9 of 9.31. There’s optimism he’ll rebound this year, which would be a boon for a Red Sox team that just traded David Price and has seen elbow issues weigh down Chris Sale this spring.

Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox:

Speaking of Sale, the longtime ace simply didn’t deliver the type of results we had grown accustomed to seeing last season. The 30-year-old was still awfully good, notching 13.32 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9, but turned in a bloated ERA (4.40) and FIP (3.39) in comparison to prior campaigns. He also saw his mean fastball velocity dip by over a mile an hour from the prior couple years, as he averaged 93.2 mph with the pitch. That’s not what the Red Sox wanted after signing Sale to a five-year, $145MM extension last spring. Considering that deal won’t even take effect until this season, it’ll be all the worse for the Red Sox if his current elbow injury proves to be serious.

Blake Snell, LHP, Rays:

Like Sale, Snell turned in fine numbers last year. However, in terms of bottom-line production, he wasn’t the Cy Young winner we witnessed the previous season, owing in part to elbow troubles that required arthroscopic surgery in late July. Snell ultimately totaled 107 innings of 4.29 ERA/3.32 FIP ball after putting up 1.89 and 2.85 in those respective categories during the prior campaign. There was still plenty to like, however, including 12.36 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9, a fastball that stayed in the 95-96 mph range and swinging-strike rate (17.7) that climbed more than 2.5 percent from his superb 2018 effort. Once again, though, there are some health questions in play. Snell may miss the start of the regular season after undergoing a cortisone shot in his elbow last week.

Jose Alvarado, LHP, Rays:

He was somewhat quietly among the elite relievers in baseball in 2018, but last year didn’t go nearly as well for Alvarado. The 24-year-old did average a whopping 98.2 mph on his fastball and strike out 11.7 batters per nine, though an untenable walk rate (8.1 BB/9, up almost double from the previous season) led to a 4.80 ERA/4.18 FIP in 30 innings. To be fair to Alvarado, he wasn’t healthy all that often in 2019, missing time with oblique and elbow injuries. He also sat out for a while because of a family matter.

J.A. Happ, LHP, Yankees:

Happ had a career-best stretch with multiple teams from 2015-18, which persuaded the Yankees to re-sign him to a two-year, $34MM contract heading into 2019. The decision doesn’t look great so far, though, as Happ stumbled to a 4.91 ERA/5.22 FIP in 161 2/3 innings last season. Along the way, his strikeouts per nine (7.81) dropped by almost two full batters from the previous season, while his home run-to-fly ball rate (18.3) jumped by about 5 percent. Now, it’s imperative for the Yankees that they get a bounce-back effort from Happ, considering the well-documented hardships they’re suddenly facing in their rotation. And there’s a lot at stake for the 37-year-old Happ, whose $17MM option for 2021 will vest if he accumulates 165 innings or 27 starts this season.

Alex Cobb, RHP, Orioles:

Back and hip injuries limited Cobb to just three starts in 2019 (all in April), the second season of a four-year, $57MM contract that has blown up in Baltimore’s face so far. Cobb had a horrific time in the 12 1/3 innings he did pitch last year, yielding 15 earned runs on 21 hits (including an eye-popping nine homers).

Mychal Givens, RHP, Orioles:

Givens was an oft-rumored trade candidate throughout last season, but the Orioles decided not to sell low on him during a career-worst year. Like many pitchers in 2019, the 29-year-old proved extremely susceptible to the home run, giving them up on 22.8 percent of fly balls en route to a 4.57 ERA/4.50 FIP with eight blown saves in 19 attempts; he also registered a below-average walk rate of 3.71 per nine. On the bright side, though, Givens fanned a career-high 12.29 batters per nine and continued to average better than 95 mph on his fastball. With this being his penultimate year of team control, Givens continues to look like a trade candidate for Baltimore, but the team won’t get a max return if he doesn’t revisit his old form.

Richard Bleier, LHP, Orioles:

Despite a dearth of strikeouts and a lack of velocity, Bleier offered lights-out results as a member of the Yankees’ and Orioles’ bullpens from 2016-18. Last year was more of the same in terms of strikeouts, walks and grounders (4.88 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 59.9 percent GB rate), but the run prevention wasn’t there. Bleier ended up with a horrid 5.37 ERA (with a more encouraging 4.19 FIP) over 55 1/3 innings. While Bleier continued to hold down same-handed hitters, who posted a weak .238 weighted on-base average off him, righties tattooed him for a .410 wOBA. In other words, the average righty hit like the 2019 version of Anthony Rendon against Bleier.

8 AL East Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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In case you missed previous installments in this series, we looked at AL West hitters and pitchers seeking bounce-back seasons in 2020. We’ll now turn our attention to the AL East and eight notable position players looking for better things this year…

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox:

Benintendi, then a premier prospect, made his debut in 2016. He has been fairly valuable since then, especially in 2018 (.290/.366/.465, 4.4 fWAR), but his production took a tumble last season. Despite a 10 percent jump in hard-hit rate (via FanGraphs), Benintendi managed a so-so .266/.343/.431 line with 13 homers and 10 steals in 615 plate appearances. A 6 percent spike in strikeout rate and a 4 percent jump in swinging-strike rate certainly didn’t help matters. Of course, Benintendi logged similar bottom-line production in 2017, so maybe this is just who he is. But the Red Sox are surely hoping for production along the lines of 2018 (or better than that), especially considering their offense has lost former centerpiece Mookie Betts.

Mike Zunino, C, Rays:

After an up-and-down tenure with the Mariners, the former No. 3 overall pick joined the Rays in a headline-grabbing trade in November 2018. But Year 1 as a Ray couldn’t have gone much worse offensively for Zunino, who batted a miserable .165/.232/.312 with nine home runs and a typically high strikeout percentage (33.9) over 289 plate appearances. Zunino did put up more encouraging Statcast numbers (.271 expected weighted on-base average, compared to a .235 real wOBA), but he didn’t exactly stand out in that regard. If there’s a saving grace, it’s that Zunino performed well behind the plate, throwing out 39 percent of would-be base thieves and finishing near the top of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. Considering his defensive abilities, Zunino doesn’t have to thrive at the plate to provide value to his team, but he does have to be a lot better than he was last season.

Joey Wendle, INF/OF, Rays:

Wendle’s terrific first season with the Rays in 2018 seemed to fly under the radar, but he wasn’t able to build on it last year. With a .231/.293/.340 line over 263 PA, his OPS plummeted more than 150 points, while his hard-hit percentage fell 5 percent, per FanGraphs. In fairness to Wendle, though, his season got off to a terrible start because of injuries. He suffered a strained left hamstring and a broken right wrist in April.

Jose Martinez, 1B/OF, Rays:

Following an offseason trade, Martinez is a Ray now after he spent the first four seasons of his MLB career in St. Louis. Martinez was typically an outstanding hitter with defensive defects as a Cardinal, but his effectiveness at the plate waned to a significant degree last season. In his final campaign with the Cards, the 31-year-old recorded a .269/.340/.410 line – good for a league-average wRC+ of 101 (down from 127 in ’18) – across 373 PA. Compared to the previous season, his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and strikeout percentage each made noticeable changes for the worse. Nevertheless, the Rays are banking on Martinez’s strong track record winning out in 2020.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH, Yankees:

Stanton’s on this list for injury – not performance – reasons. The former NL MVP continued to handle opposing pitchers last year (.288/.403/.492), but he took just 72 trips to the plate on account of various injuries. If healthy, there’s not much doubt Stanton will hit in 2020. Problem is that he’s dealing with yet another injury – a Grade 1 right calf strain – that could shelve him for the start of the season.

Miguel Andujar, 3B, Yankees:

Andujar joined Stanton as one of the many Yankees whom injuries cut down in 2019. Shoulder troubles held the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up to 12 games in his sophomore season, during which Gio Urshela usurped his starting job at third base. The 25-year-old Andujar now figures to see time at third, first, outfield and DH, but considering his limitations as a fielder, his value will be tied to his bat. If Andujar can return to being the type of offensive player he was two years ago, when he slashed .297/.328/.527 with 76 extra-base hits in 606 PA, it’ll be a boon for the Yankees.

Travis Shaw, 1B/3B, Blue Jays:

Shaw combined for 7.1 fWAR with the Brewers from 2017-18, but they non-tendered him after last season, leading him to take a one-year, $4MM offer from the Blue Jays. Despite his recent success, it was understandable that the Brewers bailed on Shaw, who endured an abysmal 2019. A 30-home run hitter in his two best campaigns, the 29-year-old totaled only seven in 270 PA last season and batted .157/.281/.270. He struck out 33 percent of the time along the way, representing nearly a 15 percent increase from the previous year, and saw his ISO drop more than 100 points. If you’re looking for at least a couple reasons for hope, Statcast indicates that the average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage Shaw recorded in 2019 weren’t much different than in previous years.

Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays:

The Blue Jays showed their faith in Grichuk when they extended him on a four-year, $47MM guarantee last April, but they received little bang for their buck in 2019. Although he did mash 31 homers, Grichuk concluded with a below-average .232/.280/.457 line in 628 PA. At this point, it’s probably fair to expect inconsistency from the OBP-challenged Grichuk, who has thrice been a two- to three-WAR player but has also put up a couple disappointing seasons (including last year) since he debuted in 2014.

Quick Hits: Snell, Nationals, Cubs

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Rays left-hander Blake Snell, the recipient of a cortisone shot in his elbow last week, threw 20 fastballs on flat ground Tuesday and came out of it “fine,” according to manager Kevin Cash (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Snell’s slated to continue working back this week, but even if things go well, it does seem the former Cy Young winner will miss at least the opening week of the regular season, Topkin suggests. Snell’s elbow issues date back to last season, as he underwent an arthroscopic procedure in late July that shelved him for almost two months.

  • Nationals outfielder Adam Eaton left the team’s game after the first inning Tuesday with a tweaked left hamstring, manager Dave Martinez told Sam Fortier of the Washington Post and other reporters. The Nationals don’t regard it as a serious injury, however, as Martinez noted that Eaton likely would have stayed in had it been a regular-season game. Meanwhile, fellow Nats outfielder Victor Robles has been battling a sore left side since last week, but he also seems to be OK. If he gets through the next few days without issue, Robles could return to the team’s lineup during the upcoming weekend, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com.
  • It remains unclear how the Cubs will distribute playing time at second base this season, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com writes. Minor league pickup Jason Kipnis has been fighting for the starting job with holdovers Nico Hoerner, David Bote and Daniel Descalso this spring. “It really is a wait and see,” manager David Ross said of the four-way competition. A former All-Star with the Indians, Kipnis possesses the longest track record of the quartet, but his offensive production declined to a noticeable extent from 2017-19, thus stopping him from landing a guaranteed contract.
  • Sticking with the Cubs, flamethrowing pitching prospect Manuel Rodriguez is down for the time being with a Grade 2 biceps strain, Bastian tweets. Rodriguez, 23, hasn’t pitched above the High-A level to this point, but the Cubs are believers in his potential. They added Rodriguez to their 40-man roster last November to prevent another team from grabbing him in the Rule 5 Draft.

NL West Notes: Rockies, Arenado, Giants, Beede

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Disgruntled Rockies franchise player Nolan Arenado and general manager Jeff Bridich still haven’t met this spring in an effort to repair their damaged relationship, but the third baseman suggested Tuesday that will change (via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). “We probably will (meet),” said Arenado, who went on to state: “People are putting a light on us, saying, ’Nolan and the GM aren’t talking.’ But the GM doesn’t come around a lot. It’s no different this year than how it’s been every other year. I think when we start trimming down the roster, then we can start having talks and see what we can do.” Those sound like somewhat optimistic comments from Arenado, but the expectation remains that the Rockies will wind up dealing him, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who observes that a trade is “inevitable.” Thanks to the whopper of an extension Arenado signed in February 2019, he could remain Rockies property for the next seven years. However, if he’s as fed up with the organization as he seems, he could choose to opt out of the deal after 2021. So, perhaps a trade will come together before then.

More on Colorado and one of its NL West foes…

  • Hard-throwing right-hander Tyler Beede is a strong candidate to grab the fifth spot in the Giants’ rotation, but he’s now dealing with a potentially troubling injury situation. Beede exited his start against Texas after one inning Tuesday with tightness in his pitching elbow, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. The severity won’t be known until Beede undergoes testing on the joint. For now, he remains in the race to earn a spot in San Francisco’s starting staff, with Logan Webb seemingly representing his stiffest competition.
  • Infielder Matt Duffy signed a minor league contract with the Rangers in January, but they weren’t the only team he talked to in free agency. Duffy told Schulman that the Giants were among the teams to “check in” on him in the offseason, but Schulman writes that it was only a “brief” conversation. Now 29 years old, Duffy got his start with the San Francisco organization. The Giants chose him in the 18th round of the 2012 draft and eventually saw him develop into a solid contributor. During the best season of his career, 2015, Duffy racked up 4.4 fWAR with the Giants.
  • The Rockies are optimistic that righty Jose Mujica, the lone major league free agent they signed during the offseason, could debut in their rotation “sometime in the near future,” according to Kyle Newman of the Denver Post. Mujica, formerly with the Rays, didn’t pitch professionally last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2018. The 23-year-old’s still working back from that procedure, but he did flash quite a bit of potential during his Triple-A debut two seasons ago. He tossed 36 2/3 innings of 2.70 ERA/2.81 FIP ball with 8.35 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9 at the minors’ highest level before going under the knife.

Camp Battles: Yankees’ Rotation

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It wasn’t long ago that the Yankees possessed what looked like a surefire elite rotation on paper. They signed superstar Gerrit Cole for a record $324MM during the offseason, and the plan was for him to lead a group with two other front-end starters (Luis Severino and James Paxton) and a pair of established complements (Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ). Sadly for the Yankees, though, the injury troubles that dogged them throughout last season haven’t relented in the new year. They’ve already lost Severino for 2020 after he underwent Tommy John surgery last week. That means this will be the second straight lost year for the electrifying Severino, who was essentially robbed of a 2019 on the mound because of shoulder and lat problems. The oft-injured Paxton will sit out until May or June as a result of back surgery, meanwhile, and the Yankees will also go without the services of Domingo German for 63 games because of a domestic violence suspension.

The Yankees have known for a while there would be no German to begin the season, but the Severino and Paxton injuries are sizable, unexpected shots to their rotation. They’re now facing multiple question marks in their starting staff after Cole, Tanaka and Happ, at least until Paxton and German come back (judging by his 2019, even Happ’s no lock to offer decent production). It seems lefty Jordan Montgomery is the odds-on favorite to begin 2020 as the Yankees’ No. 4 starter. If the Yankees get the 2017 version of Montgomery who held his own as a rookie, they’ll be in fine shape. But Montgomery combined for just 31 1/3 major league innings from 2018-19 (four last season) in the wake of Tommy John surgery on his left elbow, so no one really knows what he’ll provide going forward.

Cole, Tanaka, Happ and Montgomery aside, who else could open the season in the Yankees’ top five? Let’s examine several of the candidates vying for the role this spring…

Leading Contenders:

  • Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP: With his 96 mph fastball, Loaisiga can be electric, but the 25-year-old hasn’t had much success going deep in games during a small amount of major league starts. Furthermore, control has been a problem for Loaisiga since he debuted in 2018. While Loaisiga has fanned upward of 11 hitters per nine across 56 1/3 innings (24 appearances, eight starts), a 4.47 BB/9 has helped lead to an unspectacular 4.79 ERA/4.33 FIP.
  • Clarke Schmidt, RHP: The 24-year-old, hard-throwing Schmidt has never pitched above the Double-A level, but he’s a recent first-round pick (2017) who has opened eyes with five innings of one-run, six-strikeout ball this spring. That’s not much of a sample size, but Schmidt has impressed at multiple minor league levels since undergoing TJ surgery in his draft year. He currently ranks as the Yankees’ second-best prospect at Baseball America, which writes that he has the “ceiling of a midrotation starter.”
  • Deivi Garcia, RHP: Speaking of high-end prospects, Garcia’s right in line with Schmidt when it comes to promising Yankees farmhands (BA has him third in the team’s system). Although he’s undersized at 5-foot-9, 163 pounds, that didn’t prevent Garcia from reaching Triple-A ball at the age of 20 last year. It didn’t go well (5.40 ERA/5.77 FIP in 40 innings), but it’s hard to get down on someone so young for struggling at the highest level of the minors. With that in mind, though, it may be too ambitious to expect him to be ready for the majors in a few weeks.
  • Mike King, RHP: King’s yet another prospect (New York’s 13th-best at BA), though he does carry a bit of MLB experience, having made one appearance and thrown two innings with the Yankees last September. That made for a good ending to the season for King, whom the Yankees acquired from the Marlins in a notable trade in 2017, after a stress fracture limited him to fewer than 50 professional frames in 2019. The 24-year-old thrived in the minors the year before, however.
  • Chad Bettis, RHP: Bettis, whom the Yankees signed to a minor league contract just over two weeks ago, brings the most experience to the table of anyone in the mix. The 30-year-old appeared in 164 games and started 92 with the Rockies from 2013-19, during which he was fairly successful at times (specifically from 2015-16). Bettis is now coming off a rough season that he mostly spent in Colorado’s bullpen, as he pitched to a 6.08 ERA/5.16 FIP and struck out fewer than six batters per nine over 63 2/3 innings before undergoing hip surgery in August. On the bright side, he did post his highest average fastball velocity in years (93 mph) and log a tremendous 60.2 percent groundball rate.
  • Luis Cessa, RHP: Like Bettis, Cessa’s an elder statesman relative to most of this bunch. The 27-year-old has 86 games and 19 starts under his belt in the majors, where he has amassed 232 innings. Cessa throws hard (upward of 94 mph), but it hasn’t translated to big-time results as a member of the Yankees, with whom he owns a 4.50 ERA/4.98 FIP. After spending last season in the bullpen, it seems he’s ticketed for a similar role this year, meaning his chances of earning the fifth spot in New York’s rotation appear quite slim.

Other Possibilities?

If the Yankees aren’t content to roll with this group until Paxton and German return, perhaps they’ll scour the trade, free-agent and/or waiver markets (alternatively, they could deploy an opener such as Chad Green). They’ve already shown interest in Mets lefty Steven Matz, but a deal between the two New York rivals looks like a long shot. We also explored some other potential trade targets for the Yankees last week, but those hurlers admittedly look as if they make more sense as in-season targets. And while free agency looks to be devoid of impact arms at this point, maybe it wouldn’t hurt to take a low-risk flier on a veteran(s) who’s still seeking an opportunity.

MLBTR Poll: Vlad Jr.’s Second Season

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Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. debuted in the major leagues to great fanfare in 2019. The son of a Hall of Famer, Guerrero earned his first promotion toward the end of April – only one month after his 20th birthday. He joined the Blue Jays despite limited experience in Triple-A Buffalo, where he garnered just 162 plate appearances from 2018-19. The sample size may have been small, but Guerrero nonetheless ran roughshod over the highest level of the minors, thereby convincing the Blue Jays he was ready for prime time.

Thanks in part to his stellar production at lower levels, Guerrero was considered an all-world prospect at the time of his promotion. Indeed, four different outlets (Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus) ranked him as the game’s premier farmhand at the time. Guerrero ultimately didn’t make an enormous impact as a rookie, hitting .272/.339/.433 with 15 home runs in 514 trips to the plate, but that production’s still nothing to scoff at for a first-year man who was among the youngest players in the league last season.

Set to turn 21 on March 16, Guerrero figures to be one of the sport’s most fascinating sophomores in 2020, and the revamped Jays are no doubt hoping he’ll help key a resurgence for the club. For what it’s worth, the big-bodied Guerrero has come to camp in better shape this spring, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet wrote last month. The slimmer Guerrero’s now aiming to increase his launch angle, Andrew Stoeten of The Athletic recently relayed.

Guerrero’s mean launch angle checked in at just 6.7 degrees last year, while his expected weighted on-base average (.330, compared to a .329 real wOBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage all hung around the league’s 50th percentile, per Statcast. However, heading into Year 2, projection systems are bullish. ZiPS, for instance, calls for a .285/.349/.497 line (121 wRC+) with 25 home runs in 571 trips to the plate. Those aren’t superstar-level numbers, but they would represent a nice step forward for such a young hitter.

All that said, let’s hear from you on how you expect Vlad Jr. to perform at the plate this season. Where will his OPS land? How many homers will he hit? (Poll links for app users)

Predict Vlad Jr.'s OPS
.830-859 31.50% (2,935 votes)
.860-.899 25.30% (2,357 votes)
.800-.829 20.20% (1,882 votes)
.900 or better 14.30% (1,332 votes)
Lower than .800 8.70% (811 votes)
Total Votes: 9,317
Predict Vlad Jr. HR total
26-30 38.51% (3,796 votes)
31-35 25.98% (2,561 votes)
20-25 21.73% (2,142 votes)
36-40 6.59% (650 votes)
More than 40 3.78% (373 votes)
Fewer than 20 3.39% (334 votes)
Total Votes: 9,856

Roster Notes: Felix, Mondesi, Mariners, Orioles

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Longtime Seattle ace Felix Hernandez looks to be leading the competition for a place in Atlanta’s Cole Hamels-less rotation, Mark Bowman of MLB.com relays. The 33-year-old King Felix has given himself the upper hand with 4 2/3 innings of one-run, six-strikeout ball this spring. Hernandez, who’s competing against Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint for one of two spots, is attempting to revive his career back-to-back trying seasons. The former AL Cy Young winner’s recent struggles forced him to settle for a minor league contract over the winter, and if he does make the Braves, he’ll earn a $1MM salary.

  • The Royals aren’t sure when Adalberto Mondesi will make his Cactus League debut, but they continue to expect the shortstop to be ready for the season opener, manager Mike Matheny stated over the weekend (via Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com). “It’s just about getting him enough reps to be ready by Opening Day. We should be good,” Matheny said of Mondesi, who’s working back from the left shoulder surgery he underwent last September. Before suffering that injury, the 24-year-old turned in his second straight productive season, totaling 2.4 fWAR with a .263/.291/.424 line and 43 stolen bases.
  • Turning to Hernandez’s ex-team, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times delves into the competition among infielder/outfielder Dylan Moore, outfielder Braden Bishop and infielder/outfielder Tim Lopes for the Mariners’ final two bench spots. The most major league experience of the three belongs to Moore, who took 282 trips to the plate for the Mariners last season and hit .206/.302/.389 with nine home runs and 11 steals. He saw action at every position on the diamond but catcher, even pitching an inning. Bishop’s a decently regarded prospect (Baseball America ranks him 19th in the team’s system), but injuries – including a lacerated spleen – have slowed him down. He made a brutal debut in the majors last season, batting .107/.153/.107 in 60 PA. Lopes hit well, on the other hand (.270/.359/.360 in 128 PA), and has continued to do so this spring.
  • Andrew Velazquez hasn’t been an Oriole for long, having joined the club via waivers two weeks ago, but he’s making a good early impression. Velazquez, who’s among those competing for a bench role with the Orioles, is “migrating toward the front of the line of utility candidates,” Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. The switch-hitting 25-year-old spent time in the majors with the Rays and Indians from 2018-19, though he only combined for 36 plate appearances with those teams. Most of his recent work has come in Triple-A ball, where he owns a .260/.316/.415 line in 648 PA.

Phillies Notes: Lineup, Hunter, Dominguez

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With the recent news that Andrew McCutchen will open the season on the IL, Phillies manager Joe Girardi will have to decide on what to do about the leadoff spot, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com observes. Girardi mentioned Scott Kingery, Adam Haseley and Roman Quinn as options. But Girardi also “did not rule out” J.T. Realmuto, and he went on to note that he is taking the new three-batter minimum into consideration when thinking about lineup construction. “You want to bring in your lefty to face Bryce (Harper),” he says, “but I’m going to have him surrounded with my best two right-handers around him. So pick your poison.” Regardless of the solution, Girardi and Phillies fans will be hoping for McCutchen to return in short order and retake his position at the top of the lineup.

  • Per reports from Matt Gelb of The Athletic and Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports, expectations are that right-handed reliever Tommy Hunter will begin the season on the IL. The 33-year-old will be ready “a month or so into the season,” Salisbury adds. Hunter’s 2019 season was ended by elbow surgery in July. But that didn’t stop the Phillies from giving him an incentive-laden deal in February. Hunter was quite effective for the Phillies in 2018, providing 64 innings with an ERA of 3.80. However, he was limited to just 5 1/3 innings in 2019 before the aforementioned elbow issues. It remains to be seen which version the Phillies will get in 2020.
  • Like Hunter, righty Victor Arano also seems ticketed for the IL to open the year, according to Gelb. Arano appeared in just three of Philly’s games last season (all in April) before elbow surgery knocked his year off the rails and stopped him from building on a quality 2018. That season, Arano notched a 2.73 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 2.58 BB/9 over 59 1/3 frames.
  • With Hunter and Arano joining David Robertson on the IL, that could create high-leverage opportunities for other relievers, such as Seranthony Dominguez. However, it’s still not clear if he can avoid the IL himself. Salisbury notes that Dominguez himself “believes he will be ready for opening day, but officials will be cautious.” The reliever emerged as a weapon out of the Philly bullpen in 2018, putting together 58 innings of work with a 2.95 ERA, even compiling 16 saves in the process. The following year, however, saw that ERA balloon to 4.01 over 24 2/3 innings before a ligament strain in his right elbow finished his season on June 5th. The 25-year-old pitched in a simulated game on Sunday, with Girardi noting that his fastball got up to 94 mph. That’s still short of his normal average of 98 mph, according to StatCast. But Philly fans will surely take solace in the fact that he is seemingly healthy and still has some time to ramp up to full strength.

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