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Author: Connor Byrne

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

By | at October 21, 2016 7:44pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Although the Mariners extended their major league-worst playoff drought to 15 years in 2016, it was still an encouraging campaign for the club. In the Mariners’ first year under general manager Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais, they finished seventh in the American League in winning percentage (.531, 86-76) and a more impressive fourth in run differential (plus-61). Seattle’s record was good enough to keep the team in the wild-race race until the penultimate day of the season, though merely staying in the hunt doesn’t suffice. With that in mind, Dipoto will spend the next several months trying to position the roster to get over the hump in 2017 and put the Mariners in the postseason for the first time since their historic 116-win 2001 campaign.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Robinson Cano, 2B: $168MM through 2023
  • Kyle Seager, 3B: $85MM through 2021 ($15MM club option for 2022)
  • Felix Hernandez, SP: $79MM through 2019 ($1MM conditional club option for 2020)
  • Nelson Cruz, DH/RF: $32MM through 2018
  • Hisashi Iwakuma, SP: $15MM through 2018 ($10MM club option for 2018; $1MM buyout; option will vest at $15MM if Iwakuma throws 324 combined innings between 2016-17 and doesn’t end ’17 season with unspecified injury)
  • Steve Cishek, RP: $6MM through 2017

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Mariners Depth Chart; Mariners Payroll Information

Earlier in the Mariners’ lengthy skid, there were seasons in which woeful offensive production torpedoed their chances of competing. That wasn’t the case in 2016, however, as the Mariners eclipsed the 700-run plateau (768) for the first time since 2007. All told, Seattle crossed home plate more than 23 of the majors’ other 29 teams and finished second only to Boston’s outstanding offense in wRC+ (107).

The Mariners’ main offensive threats – second baseman Robinson Cano, designated hitter Nelson Cruz and third baseman Kyle Seager – will be back next year, but there are questions about some of the team’s complementary pieces. Ideally for the Mariners, they’ll upgrade their position player group during the offseason with better defenders and baserunners who can also contribute offensively. Defensively, this year’s Mariners ranked 23rd in both Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-24.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (minus-22). On the base paths, they placed 24th in steals (56) and toward the bottom in UBR (23rd) and BsR (26th) – two of FanGraphs’ metrics.

While shortstop Ketel Marte was one of the Mariners’ best baserunners this season, he weighed the club down in other facets and could head to Triple-A Tacoma for further development next year. Seattle already tried to replace Marte over the summer with the Reds’ Zack Cozart, but the teams ran out of time to reach a deal before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline. As a 31-year-old with one season left on his contract, the rebuilding Reds could shop Cozart again over the winter. Given the dearth of free agent shortstops on the upcoming market, the Mariners renewing their previous pursuit of Cozart seems like a no-brainer. Not only has Cozart has been a terrific defender since breaking in as a full-time major leaguer in 2012, but his most recent production indicates he’d provide the Mariners another respectable bat. Dating back to last season, Cozart has slashed .254/.308/.435 with 25 home runs in 722 plate appearances. In nearly the same amount of PAs (713), Marte has hit .267/.309/.349 with three homers.

If the Mariners acquire Cozart, he’d team with Cano and Seager to comprise the majority of their infield next season. Elsewhere, there’s no established option at first base, where midseason acquisition Dan Vogelbach could pick up the lion’s share of playing time as a left-handed hitter. The 23-year-old has more than held his own against minor league pitching, and he wouldn’t have a difficult act to follow in soon-to-be free agent Adam Lind (.239/.286/.431 in 2016).

Despite his shortcomings as a baserunner and defender, the big-bodied Vogelbach represents the Mariners’ best in-house option to take the reins at first. If that happens, platooning Vogelbach with a capable right-handed hitter would make sense. The Mariners have an impending free agent who fits the bill in Dae-ho Lee. In his first year in the majors, the longtime star in Korea and Japan slashed an above-average .261/.329/.446 with eight long balls in 157 PAs against southpaws. The 34-year-old Lee likely wouldn’t cost much for the Mariners to re-sign, having made an economical $1MM this season.

While the Mariners could determine that Vogelbach isn’t yet the answer as a primary option and look outside for aid, Dipoto has already made it clear that he wants a younger group of position players in 2017 (via Brent Stecker of 710 ESPN Seattle). Scouring free agency, where there are a slew of potential targets in their mid-30s (Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Napoli and Steve Pearce, to name a few), wouldn’t help Dipoto accomplish that goal. On paper, though, each is a more enticing (and far more expensive) choice than Vogelbach. The trade market probably won’t offer much, though the Brewers might put soon-to-be 30-year-old slugger Chris Carter on the block or even non-tender him.

Behind the plate, the Mariners seem prepared to turn to Mike Zunino again on the heels of an encouraging season that Servais called an “absolute success” (via Stecker). Because he began the year in Tacoma, Zunino only appeared in 55 games with the Mariners. The .195 career hitter batted an unsightly .207 along the way, but his 10.9 percent walk rate and .262 ISO led to .318 on-base and .470 slugging percentages. His overall batting line was easily above average, but it’s up in the air whether the third overall pick in the 2012 draft will continue drawing walks or hitting for power at such high clips. Nevertheless, he’s an asset as a defender, and Servais feels “really good about where he’s at and the strides he’s made to kinda be a front-line, everyday catcher.”

Even if the Mariners are confident enough in Zunino to avoid spending on one the market’s best available catchers – Wilson Ramos, Matt Wieters, Jason Castro and Nick Hundley – they could still use a decent complement at the position. Unfortunately, pickings will be slim outside of that quartet. Current backup Chris Iannetta has fallen off both offensively and defensively over the past two seasons, which could convince the Mariners to decline his $4.25MM option, but it’s debatable whether anyone from the group of A.J. Ellis, Kurt Suzuki, Geovany Soto and Alex Avila is superior to him. The Mariners also have Jesus Sucre on hand, though it’s difficult to trust a 28-year-old with a .209/.246/.276 line in 264 major league PAs. Meanwhile, Steve Clevenger is a non-tender waiting to happen.

In the outfield, the Mariners only have one starter – center fielder Leonys Martin – under control for 2017. The team relied heavily on Seth Smith, Nori Aoki and Franklin Gutierrez in the corners this year, and there are now decisions to make with all three. Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reported last month that the Mariners plan to exercise Smith’s $7MM option, adding that Gutierrez will probably return in lieu of departing as a free agent. If true, the left-handed Smith and the right-handed Gutierrez would make for a useful platoon in right field. That would still leave one open spot, but Aoki is unlikely to occupy it if the club retains Smith, per Dutton.

Aside from Martin, Smith, Aoki and Gutierrez, the Mariners’ outfield candidates include relative unknowns in Guillermo Heredia and August acquisition Ben Gamel. Those two weren’t especially impressive in late-season auditions, which could lead the Mariners to look for an upgrade in the offseason. FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported last month that Seattle might make a splash on a “complementary piece” during the winter. The outfield would be a sensible place to spend in that type of scenario.

Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler would be a particularly intriguing target if he gets to free agency. Fowler has long been a solid contributor at the plate and on the bases, and he’s coming off a respectable defensive year thanks to a change in alignment. The switch-hitting 30-year-old also got on base nearly 40 percent of the time this season and has done so at a .366 career clip, which should intrigue an OBP proponent like Dipoto. Potential drawbacks: Fowler would require a pricey multiyear commitment, signing him would cost the Mariners a first-round pick (currently No. 18 overall) if the Cubs tender him a qualifying offer, and either Fowler or Martin would have to be receptive to playing a corner.

Like Fowler, the Rangers’ Ian Desmond would also cost the Mariners significant money and a top pick. His versatility is interesting, though, as Desmond lined up at both left and center this year after spending the first several seasons of his career at shortstop. It’s unclear whether Desmond would consider moving back to short, but if he markets himself as an infielder/outfielder, a team in need in both areas (the Mariners, for instance) could enter the bidding.

As is the case with Desmond, fellow Ranger Carlos Gomez is an impending free agent who has played multiple outfield spots. While Gomez wouldn’t cost a pick and would bring a history of speed and defense to the Mariners, there’s considerable risk with him after he flamed out with the Astros from 2015-16. Gomez returned to his previous All-Star form at the plate with the Rangers in September, however, and will be on many teams’ radars as a result.

Shifting to their rotation, the Mariners have almost an entire starting five seemingly locked in with Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker, but it’s an unspectacular group. Hernandez and Iwakuma no longer look like front-line options, and Walker has been somewhat of a letdown in the majors since his days as an elite prospect. The Mariners possess other rotation possibilities in Nate Karns, who performed much better as a starter than as a reliever in 2016, and Ariel Miranda. Otherwise, the open market will feature plenty of flawed alternatives. Dipoto hasn’t been shy about making trades, so he could certainly explore that route, too.

Adding a productive innings eater would seem logical, as Hernandez is coming off his lowest mark since 2005 (153 1/3), Iwakuma has durability questions, Paxton has never thrown more than 171 2/3 frames in any professional season, and Walker just had ankle surgery and hasn’t exceeded 169 2/3 in any year. However, having a consistent track record of taking the ball every fifth day wasn’t enough for the Mariners to retain Wade Miley, whom they traded to Baltimore in July for Miranda. Miley was ineffective for Seattle and would have cost the club $8.75MM in 2017. Durable free agents like Edinson Volquez and former Mariner R.A. Dickey should carry similar (perhaps higher) per-year price tags to Miley, but it’s not a lock either would be part of the solution. While Bartolo Colon is better than Miley, Volquez and Dickey, signing the soon-to-be 44-year-old would require him to leave the Mets and switch coasts.

If Karns and Miranda don’t end up as starters, they could factor into the bullpen, where Seattle will be in fine shape even if it non-tenders Tom Wilhelmsen, Charlie Furbush and/or Ryan Cook. The Mariners got great rookie performances this year from closer Edwin Diaz and Dan Altavilla. Evan Scribner, Nick Vincent and Vidal Nuno also look like shoo-ins to occupy spots. Steve Cishek and Tony Zych should figure heavily into the equation in theory, but there are notable health issues with the pair. Regardless, the Mariners clearly have a righty-heavy bullpen and could use a late-game lefty. They’ll be able to find solid and affordable southpaws on the market, where Jerry Blevins, Brett Cecil, Boone Logan, J.P. Howell, Mike Dunn and Marc Rzepczynski will be among the possibilities not named Aroldis Chapman.

Since 2014, a year after they signed a $2 billion television deal, the Mariners’ payroll has risen exponentially. Seattle opened 2016 with a franchise-record $142MM-plus in 25-man roster commitments (up more than $50MM from 2014) and should surpass that mark next season. The club was on the cusp of the playoffs this year, and with new owner John Stanton motivated to win, Dipoto should have the resources available to put the Mariners in contention for an AL West title in 2017.

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AL Notes: Blue Jays, Indians, LCS, White Sox

By | at October 16, 2016 10:16pm CDT

Toronto is in an 0-2 ALCS hole at the hands of Cleveland, leading Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista to imply Sunday that his club is up against both the Indians and the series’ home plate umpires. “All you gotta do is look at the video and count how many times [Indians pitchers have] throw pitches over the heart of the plate,” he told Mike Vorkunov of USA Today. “It hasn’t been many. They’ve been able to do that because of the circumstances – that I’m not trying to talk about because I can’t. That’s for you guys to do but you guys don’t really want to talk about that either.” In response to Bautista’s claim, Mike Gianella of Baseball Prospectus (Twitter link) reviewed PITCHf/x data and concluded that home plate umps Laz Diaz and Jim Wolf called balls and strikes pretty evenly for both teams during the series’ first two games. Conversely, Mark Simon of ESPN.com writes that the Indians have had a clear advantage with respect to the strike zone. TruMedia shows that Indians pitchers have gotten strike calls at a 7.4 percent higher rate than average during the series, according to Simon. On the other hand, Blue Jays pitchers are at 1.8 percent lower than average.

As we wait for Monday’s Game 3 in Toronto, here’s more from around the AL:

  • The White Sox will name Chris Getz their director of player development during the upcoming week, reports Scott Merkin of MLB.com. The 33-year-old Getz will take over for Nick Capra, who is now the White Sox’s third base coach. Getz was a major league second baseman from 2008-14, including parts of two seasons with the White Sox. The South Siders selected Getz in the fourth round of the 2005 draft.
  • If the Indians end up advancing to the World Series, what already seems like an untouchable bullpen could add another weapon in Danny Salazar. The injured right-hander – out since early September with a forearm strain – threw a simulated game Sunday after rejoining the Indians in Toronto, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Salazar, who had been throwing in Arizona, is “doing pretty good,” said manager Terry Francona. “He’s not back yet where he’s throwing all his pitches or letting it go 100 percent. I think if we ask him to do that, he might be reaching right now. We’ve been pretty vocal about [how] the first priority is getting him back healthy.”
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Miguel Montero Thought Cubs Would Release Him

By | at October 16, 2016 7:38pm CDT

Catcher Miguel Montero‘s tie-breaking, eighth-inning grand slam made him the hero of the Cubs’ 8-4 win over the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLCS on Saturday. The 33-year-old didn’t expect to be in that position, however, as he told FanRag Sports’ Jack Magruder after the game that he thought the Cubs might release him during the season. The Cubs never indicated that was a possibility, though, according to Magruder.

Montero’s currently slated to return to Chicago next season with a hefty salary – $14MM – to conclude the five-year, $60MM extension he signed with the Diamondbacks in 2012. The Cubs reportedly considered shopping Montero last offseason, which was before the two-time All-Star’s playing time markedly declined during arguably a career-worst year. Montero appeared in 86 games, his fewest since 2010, and batted a meager .216/.327/.357 in 284 plate appearances. Both rookie Willson Contreras and veteran David Ross took playing time from Montero during the regular season, and that has continued in the playoffs. Montero’s grand slam was his first hit of this year’s postseason, in which he has collected just five at-bats. He came to the plate Saturday as a pinch-hitter and is out of the Cubs’ lineup Sunday.

Going forward, Ross’ forthcoming retirement seems to bode well for Montero to remain with the Cubs in 2017. Ross’ departure will leave Montero as the Cubs’ only veteran backstop. The team also has Kyle Schwarber on track to come back from a knee injury that cost him almost all of this season. He conceivably could fall directly behind Contreras on the Cubs’ catcher depth chart next year, though there are questions about Schwarber’s defense. For his part, the 23-year-old slugger is “adamant” about factoring in heavily behind the plate, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reported in September.

On dividing his time between catcher and the outfield, Schwarber told Gonzales, “I want to get back to that point where it’s 50-50 on each side now and not 60-40.”

Regardless of Schwarber’s goal, the fact that full tears to his ACL and LCL cost him a year to develop further as a catcher might help Montero’s chances of finishing his contract as a member the Cubs. Notably, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein praised Montero’s pitch-framing and game-calling skills after last season, attributing some of the pitching staff’s success to his defensive work. Montero has indeed been an excellent framer throughout his career, which Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner indicate has again been the case in 2016.

We’ll know what 2017 holds for Montero soon enough. In the meantime, he’ll spend the next couple weeks trying to help the Cubs win their first World Series since 1908.

“I probably had a bad year, but I might be the MVP of the World Series,” he told Magruder. “I’m being kind of sarcastic, but in reality you never know. Baseball is kind of crazy. Anything can happen, and then nobody is going to remember what I did in the regular season.”

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Latest On Red Sox’s, Diamondbacks’ Front Offices

By | at October 16, 2016 5:30pm CDT

The Diamondbacks worked quickly in their hiring of new executive vice president and general manager Mike Hazen, details Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

Once it decided to move on from ex-GM Dave Stewart at the end of the regular season, Arizona reached out to Boston for permission to speak with Hazen, who served under president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski as the Red Sox’s GM. The BoSox didn’t allow Hazen to interview until after the Indians knocked them out of the ALDS last Monday. Hazen then met with the Diamondbacks on Friday and agreed to become the head of their baseball department Sunday morning.

In response to Hazen’s departure, Dombrowski released a congratulatory statement in which he revealed that “a search for a new general manager for the Boston Red Sox is underway.”

Reports already have senior vice president of baseball operations Frank Wren and pro scouting director Gus Quattlebaum as potential in-house successors to Hazen. If the Red Sox do want to promote Wren, it’s not a guarantee he’ll accept. Rob Bradford of WEEI notes that Wren – formerly the Braves’ GM – still lives in Atlanta, making it unclear if he’d be willing to move to Boston for a bigger role.

Other than Wren, Speier lists assistant GM Brian O’Halloran, VP of amateur and international scouting Amiel Sawdaye, senior VP Allard Baird and VP of international scouting Eddie Romero as other GM possibilities currently with the Red Sox. Speier also points out that Dombrowski interviewed Astros director of player development Quinton McCracken for the team’s GM job before he hired Hazen in 2015. The only member of the group with GM experience is Baird, who held that position with the Royals from 2000-06.

Of course, Hazen could lure certain front office members away from Boston to work with him and Tony La Russa in Arizona. La Russa is now an advisor, no longer the Diamondbacks’ chief baseball officer, but Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports (on Twitter) that the longtime manager still has power within the organization. La Russa seemingly had a hand in the hiring of Hazen, having sat in with owner Ken Kendrick during their interviews with GM candidates.

Hazen doesn’t intend to raid the Red Sox of their personnel, according to Speier, though Bradford writes that O’Halloran, Quattlebaum and Sawdaye are candidates to take jobs with the Diamondbacks.

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Frank Wren “Leading Candidate” For Red Sox’s GM Job

By | at October 16, 2016 3:40pm CDT

In the wake of Mike Hazen’s departure, the Red Sox are likely to hire a new general manager to work under president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). Hazen’s successor could come from within, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who reports that Red Sox senior vice president of baseball operations Frank Wren is in the lead to take over as GM. Another member of Boston’s front office, pro scouting director Gus Quattlebaum, is also a potential option, per Rob Bradford of WEEI (Twitter link).

The 58-year-old Wren has extensive experience as an executive, including runs as the GM in Baltimore and Atlanta. Both stints ended in firings for Wren, whose tenure atop the Braves (2007-14) was much longer than his reign with the Orioles (1998-99). In Wren’s seven seasons as the Braves’ GM, the club finished over .500 five times and earned three playoff berths. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons, closer Craig Kimbrel, catcher Evan Gattis and left-hander Alex Wood were among the players the Braves drafted under Wren, who later inked Simmons, Kimbrel, first baseman Freddie Freeman and starter Julio Teheran to extensions that have worked out well (of that group, only Freeman and Teheran remain in Atlanta).

Wren’s time as the Braves’ boss certainly had blemishes, including allocating significant money to outfielder Melvin Upton Jr. (five years, $75.25MM), second baseman Dan Uggla (five years, $62MM) and third baseman Chris Johnson (three years, $23MM).  Their inability to live up to those deals contributed to Wren’s firing. In 2014, Wren’s final season in Atlanta, the offensively challenged Braves stumbled to a 27-40 second half after going 52-43 before the All-Star break.

While his resume is imperfect, Wren has experience and a long-standing relationship with Dombrowski working in his favor. Wren was previously with Dombrowski in two other cities – Montreal and Miami – and is now Dombrowski’s “right-hand man,” as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote in July.

Whether it’s Wren, Quattlebaum or another candidate, it seems Boston’s next GM will have a difficult act to follow. Hazen’s exit to Arizona makes this a “sad day” for the Red Sox because of both his contributions to the organization and his likability, a source told Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald (Twitter link). Moreover, Peter Gammons spoke with a high-ranking Red Sox official who favorably compared Hazen to former Boston GM and current Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein (via Twitter).

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MLBTR Originals

By | at October 16, 2016 3:25pm CDT

This week’s original features from MLBTR:

  • Matt Swartz and Tim Dierkes released their projected arbitration salaries for the upcoming winter, forecasting upward of 200 players’ earnings for 2017. Tim also broke the news of this year’s projected Super Two cutoff, and Steve Adams provided a detailed breakdown.
  • In the latest mailbag, Steve fielded questions on the Orioles’ outfield, free agent reliever Greg Holland, and which players will receive qualifying offers after the season.
  • The MLBTR staff continued this year’s Offseason Outlook series with the Reds, Rays and Braves.
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Braves, Jim Johnson Agree To Two-Year Extension

By | at October 16, 2016 8:02am CDT

TODAY: Johnson’s contract is worth $10MM in guaranteed money, The Associated Press reports.  He will be paid $4.5MM in 2017 and 2018, with a $1MM signing bonus.  The righty can earn up to $1.75MM in performance bonuses each season based on games finished.  Johnson earns $250K for finishing 30 games, and then another $250K for hitting each of the 35, 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60-game thresholds.

OCTOBER 2: Braves reliever Jim Johnson could have hit free agency during the offseason, but the 33-year-old will instead continue his career in Atlanta. He and the Braves have agreed to a two-year contract extension, according to a team announcement. Financial details are not yet available, but the deal will keep the Moye Sports Associates client under Atlanta’s control through the 2018 season.

Jim Johnson

Johnson is amid his second stint as a Brave after signing a one-year, $2.5MM deal with the club last offseason. That ended up being a bargain for the rebuilding Braves, as Johnson has logged a 3.11 ERA, 9.33 K/9 and 2.83 BB/9 over 63 2/3 innings. Johnson has also kept up a career-long trend of inducing ground balls, having posted a 55 percent mark, and added 19 saves on 22 chances. Overall, 2016 has been a major bounce-back season for Johnson, who fared poorly with the Tigers, Athletics and Dodgers during the previous two campaigns.

Despite his struggles elsewhere, Johnson has clearly found a home in Atlanta. Previously, he recorded a 2.25 ERA over 48 innings with the team in 2015 before it traded him to Los Angeles in July. Part of the reason for Johnson’s success with the Braves is his strong relationship with pitching coach Roger McDowell, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com (Twitter link). Going forward, the longtime Oriole – who has 153 career saves – said Sunday the plan is for him to remain as the Braves’ closer, according to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). That means Johnson will continue leading a bullpen cast that should include the likes of Ian Krol, Arodys Vizcaino and Mauricio Cabrera, among others, in 2017.

It’s unknown how much interest Johnson would have garnered as a free agent, of course, but playoff contenders were zeroing in on him as a trade target over the summer. In fact, a deal nearly came to fruition in late July, and the Blue Jays, Mets and Rangers were among the clubs that eyed Johnson in advance of the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline. An unidentified team also claimed Johnson on revocable waivers in August, but the Braves pulled him back after they and the other club weren’t able to agree on a trade. Now, after nearly joining his sixth major league team over the summer, he’s primed to stay in Atlanta for the next couple years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Pirates Focusing On Run Prevention

By | at October 15, 2016 10:36pm CDT

Fresh off their first non-playoff season since 2012, the Pirates will prioritize improving their run prevention over the winter, reports Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. In 2015, when the Pirates won 98 games, they finished third in the majors in runs surrendered (596). That figure skyrocketed during a 78-win 2016 campaign for the Bucs, who allowed opposing teams to cross home plate 758 times (22nd in the league).

The better your pitching, the better your chances of stopping rivals from scoring, but general manager Neal Huntington isn’t optimistic about ameliorating the team’s staff via free agency. As Sawchik notes, the average starting pitcher deal during free agency last offseason was worth $10.02MM. Now, with so few appealing options set to hit the market, “it will be worse this year,” Huntington told Sawchik. “It is a reminder of how important it is for us to develop our own starting pitching,” the GM added.

The Pirates have one of the league’s top soon-to-be free agent rotation pieces in right-hander Ivan Nova, whom they acquired from the Yankees at this year’s trade deadline. Nova was a revelation in Pittsburgh and now looks primed to land a richer deal than anyone would have expected before he joined the Pirates. The club is trying to re-sign him, but the likelihood is he’ll hit the market, according to Sawchik.

With Nova perhaps on the brink of departing, Huntington opened up about the difficulties of working with a low payroll, saying that “every significant contract is a risk. When you look at Francisco Liriano at $13 million, when he performed well it is an affordable contract. But it’s the equivalent of $30-$40 million (per year) for the Dodgers. Percent of payroll is real. It’s not an excuse. When a contract is 13 percent of your payroll versus 4 percent, the level of risk tolerance is so very different …. How far do you stretch? It is a case-by-case situation.”

Huntington’s spending limitations played into the Pirates’ inability to re-sign left-hander J.A. Happ and add fellow southpaw Rich Hill last year. The Pirates lost out by $500K on Hill, whom the Athletics signed for $6MM.

“Sitting here now it’s easy to say we should have moved on J.A. Happ or Rich Hill,” commented Huntington. “We don’t have the benefit of hindsight.”

As for Liriano, the Pirates traded him to the Blue Jays at the Aug. 1 non-waiver deadline. Liriano was outstanding with Pittsburgh in 2015, the first of a three-year, $39MM deal, but that wasn’t the case this season. As a result, the payroll-challenged Bucs dealt two prospects along with Liriano in exchange for $18MM in savings and right-hander Drew Hutchison.

With none of Happ, Liriano or Hill in the picture, the Pirates unsurprisingly have rotation questions going forward. Righties Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are sure to fill two rotation spots for the club. Tyler Glasnow, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, Trevor Williams and Hutchison are among their other potential in-house rotation candidates. They’re not the most confidence-inspiring choices, which Huntington addressed.

“Some will continue to progress. The real world shows us some will regress,” he said.

If Huntington decides he’s not content with that group, he revealed that dealing position pitchers to “strengthen” his team’s rotation is a possibility. It’s unclear which players Huntington could part with, though center fielder Andrew McCutchen‘s name has come up of late. While the longtime face of the franchise is a five-time All-Star and one-time NL MVP, his all-around performance drastically fell off last season and he especially hindered the Pirates’ ability to prevent runs. McCutchen’s minus-27 Defensive Runs Saved “catches your attention,” said Huntington, who attributes some of the 30-year-old’s fielding woes to the shallower alignment the team deployed this season. The Pirates are now evaluating how they’ll align their fielders in the future, per Sawchik. One thing that will remain is an emphasis on inducing ground balls.

“(The ground ball) is something that we’re going to keep as one of our cornerstones,” manager Clint Hurdle told Sawchik. “We’ve had a recipe for success and we want to follow it.”

Pittsburgh’s ground-ball percentage fell from 50.4 in 2015 to 46.9 this year, but the team still ranked third in the majors in that department. However, only nine clubs were worse at turning grounders into outs, StatCorner indicates . The Pirates ranked a far superior 12th at killing grounders the previous year, when they were a much better defensive team in general. Now, Huntington is trying to figure out how to restore the Pirates to their 2015 ways.

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Free Agency Poll: Aroldis Chapman Or Kenley Jansen?

By | at October 15, 2016 8:39pm CDT

This year’s NLCS between the Cubs and Dodgers is underway, and electrifying closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen figure to be among the series’ most important players. That was already the case for the two teams in the NLDS, when Chapman saved all three of the Cubs’ wins over the Giants – including two one-run affairs – and blew a save in Chicago’s only loss. Jansen had an ugly Game 2 showing against the Nationals, but he was otherwise tremendous, racking up saves in a pair of one-run contests before his all-important hold in a memorable Game 5. Jansen entered in the seventh inning Thursday and tossed 2 1/3 frames of 51-pitch, one-hit ball to preserve a 4-3 lead, which ace Clayton Kershaw closed out by retiring back-to-back hitters in the ninth.

One of Chapman or Jansen could very well secure the final out of this year’s World Series, after which the late-game aces are scheduled to become free agents. Given both their dominance and the ever-increasing importance of bullpens, Chapman and Jansen are in line to score the most valuable contracts ever awarded to relievers. The four-year, $50MM contract Jonathan Papelbon signed with the Phillies in 2011 is the record, but that deal’s days at the top are numbered. Now it’s a matter of figuring out whether Chapman or Jansen will land the richer pact.

The two will play their age-29 seasons in 2017, and their results have been similarly excellent since they debuted in 2011. In 377 combined innings with the Reds, Yankees and Cubs, Chapman has a 2.08 ERA, 15.18 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 42.3 percent ground-ball rate, 12.8 infield pop-up percentage and 17.7 percent swinging strike mark. Across 408 2/3 frames with the Dodgers, Jansen has posted a 2.20 ERA, 13.92 K/9 and 2.62 BB/9 with a worse ground-ball and swinging strike percentages than Chapman (33.4 and 15.7), though he does have the superior infield fly rate (13.8). In terms of their ability to finish games, Chapman has a nearly 90 percent success rate (182 saves in 203 chances), while Jansen has converted more than 88 percent of his save chances (189 of 214).

There aren’t notable differences in their age or career outputs, though Chapman and Jansen do diverge in certain areas. Chapman is a left-hander and Jansen a righty, for starters. With the ability to occasionally hit 105 mph on the radar gun, Chapman is the hardest thrower in baseball, but Jansen can offer a lethal 98 mph cutter. Also of importance, there are no off-the-field red flags with Jansen. That isn’t true in Chapman’s case

Chapman was on track last offseason to join Jansen in the Dodgers’ bullpen, but a trade between them and the Reds fell through amid domestic violence claims. Chapman was alleged to have struck his girlfriend and discharged a firearm while alone in his garage last October. Criminal charges were never filed, so Chapman did not face a trial. Nevertheless, the league did suspend him for the first month of the season, and it’s conceivable that such a serious incident could damage Chapman’s earning power as a free agent. On the other hand, contenders lined up to acquire Chapman from the Yankees at this year’s trade deadline, and the Cubs eventually surrendered one of baseball’s top prospects – shortstop Gleyber Torres – in a package for him.

The fact that Chapman switched teams during the season means he’ll be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, which will only boost his stock. The Dodgers will surely tender a QO to Jansen, meaning another club that signs him would have to give up a first-round pick in addition to the enormous contract it awards him. With other high-payroll teams like the Yankees, Giants and Nationals perhaps set to accompany the big-spending Cubs and Dodgers in the sweepstakes for Chapman and Jansen, they’re clearly going to earn sizable raises during the offseason. But which one will fare better on the open market?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

Which free agent closer will land the richer contract?

  • Aroldis Chapman 76% (6,259)
  • Kenley Jansen 24% (1,996)

Total votes: 8,255

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By | at October 15, 2016 6:51pm CDT

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