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Braves Interested In Garrett Crochet

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White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet continues to be one of the most interesting names in the lead-up to the deadline. With just over 24 hours left to go, it’s unclear if he will be traded at all, but plenty of teams are interested. He’s already been connected to the Dodgers, Phillies and Padres to varying degrees, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post adding Atlanta to the pile today on X. Travis Sawchik of theScore reported on X last week that the Sox would prefer not to trade Crochet within the division, so the odds of him landing with another A.L. Central team would appear to be low.

Crochet is fairly unprecedented as a trade candidate due to his unusual trajectory. He was quickly called up to the majors in 2020 when he was only 21 years old. The Sox kept him in a relief role the year after and he pitched fairly well, but then Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2022 and 2023 seasons.

That left him in a strange spot coming into 2024. He had only thrown 73 major league innings due to the missed injury time and another 12 1/3 in the minors as part of his rehab assignment while coming back from surgery last year. But he collected service time while on the injured list and crossed three years of service in 2023, qualifying for arbitration. Since he had hardly pitched, his salary only got bumped to $800K, barely above the league minimum.

The Sox stretched him out as a starter here in 2024 and the results have vastly outpaced any reasonable expectations. The lefty has thrown 114 1/3 innings, already eclipsing his workload over the four previous years combined. He has allowed just 3.23 earned runs per nine innings, striking out 34.6% of batters faced. He has also limited walks to a 5.6% clip and gotten grounders on 46.8% of balls in play.

Most clubs would be clinging tightly to a pitcher who suddenly became an ace at the age of 25 but there are also factors pushing him onto the trade block. As mentioned, he has already qualified for arbitration and has just two years of club control remaining beyond this one. The Sox are absolutely awful this year, despite Crochet’s contributions, with a 27-81 record that could see them finish as one of the worst clubs of all time.

Given the low point the Sox are at, it’s fair to wonder if they can be competitive again in their window of control over Crochet. They reportedly explored an extension with him but didn’t get far, so he’s likely more valuable to them as a trade chip than as a player.

An ace pitcher with a tiny salary and two extra years of club control should give Crochet massive trade appeal but there are also complications. With the limited workload that he carried into this year, it’s led to questions about the best way to press forward, with some suggesting a move to relief work down the stretch would be the best option.

According to reporting from last week, Crochet prefers to continue in a starting role, believing that would be best for his health. He would want to sign an extension with any new club before being moved to the bullpen.

Relievers work fewer innings than starters overall but they have to pitch more frequently and essentially on-call. Perhaps Crochet believes he can better prepare his body for the regular schedule of starting, whereas bullpen work could involve pitching at any time, even on back-to-back days. It’s also possible that he and his reps are simply trying to leverage the trade interest into locking in some financial security, which is understandable. For a guy that has already missed significant time, it would be nice to have some money in the bank before a club leans on him heavily for a World Series run.

That could perhaps scare off some clubs that don’t want to both send significant prospects to Chicago and also commit notable dollars to Crochet. However, Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports today that the Dodgers don’t view the extension as an obstacle.

This situation is somewhat analogous to the Tyler Glasnow circumstances from the offseason. While not exactly the same as Crochet, he had some workload concerns and was available in trade, though the Rays reportedly made an extension a condition of trade talks. In the end, the Dodgers sealed the deal, sending Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca to the Rays for Glasnow and Manuel Margot and locking Glasnow up through 2028.

It’s understandable why they might want to go down that path again, given their pitching challenges. Dustin May and Emmet Sheehan both required season-ending surgeries while Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are each on the injured list as well. Bobby Miller struggled so bad that he got optioned down to the minors.

The club’s current rotation is fronted by Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw. Glasnow has a spotty health track record while Kershaw just returned from a lengthy absence due to shoulder surgery. They are backed up by three rookies in Gavin Stone, River Ryan and Justin Wrobleski. General manager Brandon Gomes has said the club is looking for “impact” additions and Crochet would certainly qualify. They already have lined up with the Sox on one major trade today, a three-team blockbuster that also involved the Cardinals.

Crochet’s modest salary is certainly part of the appeal for the Dodgers, as they are slated to be third-time payors of the competitive balance tax and are currently over the top tier. That means they will pay a 110% tax on any money they take on, so someone like Crochet would be more appealing than a veteran who is already making eight figures annually. The theoretical extension would increase his cost but the new deal would start in 2025 and wouldn’t impact his current CBT hit.

Turning to Atlanta, they have their own rotation challenges. Spencer Strider is out for the season due to UCL surgery while Max Fried, Hurston Waldrep and Huascar Ynoa are also on the IL at the moment. Reynaldo López was removed from his most recent start due to forearm tightness and is slated for an MRI.

That leaves them with a rotation nucleus consisting of Chris Sale and Charlie Morton. Sale is having a great season but missed most of the previous four years due to injury and is now 35 years old. Morton is 40 years old and his strikeout rate has been declining for four straight years. Spencer Schwellenbach has been filling in nicely but has ten big league starts to his name.

Adding Crochet in there would obviously be appealing and Atlanta is not afraid to sign extensions, having given multi-year pacts to most of their roster. Crochet’s minimal salary at present is also appealing on account of their CBT status. RosterResource has them at $273MM, just under the third CBT tier of $277MM. Going over that line would result in their top 2025 draft pick being bumped back ten spots, as well as an increased taxation rate.

As for the report that the Sox don’t want to move him within the division, that’s perfectly understandable. Most clubs don’t want to see their best players thriving on clubs that they play more often than others and the Sox should have plenty of suitors even while crossing a couple of teams off the list.

The Royals have a fairly strong rotation and just traded for Michael Lorenzen today, so they will probably be focused on adding offense in the days to come. The Twins and Guardians could use some rotation help but it seems they may have to shop in the non-Crochet aisle. The market also features such guys as Yusei Kikuchi, Jameson Taillon, Cal Quantrill and others.

Tigers Acquire Ricky Vanasco From Dodgers

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The Tigers have acquired right-hander Ricky Vanasco from the Dodgers, per announcements from both clubs. Detroit had an open 40-man spot after trading Carson Kelly yesterday and optioned Vanasco to Triple-A Toledo. The Dodgers, who designated Vanasco for assignment recently, receive cash considerations in return.

Vanasco, now 25, was once a notable prospect for the Rangers but has had some challenges in recent years. He had Tommy John surgery in September of 2020 and missed the entire 2021 season. But Texas still believed in him enough that they didn’t want him taken in the Rule 5 draft, so Vanasco got a 40-man roster spot in November of 2021.

He returned to the mound in 2022, with some mixed results. In 92 1/3 innings on the farm, he struck out 28.9% of batters but also gave out walks at a 12.7% clip, leading to a 4.68 ERA. In 2023, he required knee surgery that forced him to miss a few months. The Rangers designated him for assignment in May and flipped him to the Dodgers.

The beginning of his tenure with the Dodgers was great, though he was outrighted off their roster not long after being acquired. He threw 30 innings in the minors last year after the deal with a 1.20 ERA, striking out 35% of opponents. He also significantly cut his walk rate to 8.1%.

Since he was outrighted off the roster last summer, he became a free agent at season’s end but the Dodgers re-signed him to a major league deal. Here in 2024, he’s spent most of the season on optional assignment but with his control issues seemingly resurfacing. In 23 1/3 Triple-A innings, he has a 3.47 ERA and 24.3% strikeout rate but a huge 18.9% walk rate.

That wildness undoubtedly played a role in nudging him off the Dodgers’ roster but the Tigers will take a shot on him. He is in his final option season, so they can keep him in Toledo to see if he can harness his stuff a little bit better. They can get a close-up look at him for now but he’ll be out of options next year. If he manages to hold onto his roster spot, he has just a few days of service time and can be kept well into the future.

Orioles Interested In Blake Snell

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Giants left-hander Blake Snell might be available before the trade deadline, with the Yankees, Padres and Cubs having already been connected to him in rumors. The Orioles can be added to that pile, as Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports on X that the O’s are “aiming high” at the deadline thanks to their new owner and strong farm system.

The Orioles have generally acted very conservatively in recent years, hardly spending any money at all. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that, since April 2018, the O’s haven’t given out a larger contract than the $13MM deal for Craig Kimbrel. The only multi-year deals they have given out have been two-year extensions for John Means and Félix Bautista, players that were already controllable but facing recoveries from Tommy John surgeries.

The lack of spending was somewhat justifiable while the club was in the depths of a rebuild, but it has carried over into the new competitive window that they are currently in. It has been speculated that things might open up once the planned sale of the club went through and there are some signs that is now happening.

David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club didn’t become official until the end of March, the cusp of Opening Day, so the O’s still had a fairly modest offseason. But here in the lead-up to the deadline, they have shown a willingness to absorb some money, both for this year and into the future. They acquired Zach Eflin from the Rays, with that pitcher still owed roughly $3.8MM of his $11MM salary and a big spike to $18MM next year. They also acquired Seranthony Dominguez from the Phillies, who is making $4.25MM this year and has an $8MM club option for next year.

Acquiring Snell would be a risky proposition on account of his opt-out but the O’s are perhaps the club best suited to take such a risk. As recently laid out by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in a piece for Front Office subscribers, teams are usually hesitant to trade for players with player options or the ability to opt out. There’s no real difference between the terms “player option” or “opt-out”, as either one gives the player the control over what transpires.

Trading for such a player at the deadline comes with more downside than upside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will trigger the opt-out and leave, making them a rental. If they perform poorly or get hurt, the club is stuck with them at a price that’s unpalatable, as the player wouldn’t have accepted it otherwise.

Due to their lack of spending in recent years, the O’s came into this year with almost nothing on the books for 2025 and beyond. The $1MM owed to Bautista was the only guarantee, though they have since added Eflin’s $18MM, as mentioned. They have a few club options and some arbitration-eligible players, but they have hardly anything committed for next year.

Snell signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants coming into 2024. That comes in the form of a $15MM salary and $17MM signing bonus, the latter of which is reportedly not transferable to a trade partner. He then has a $30MM player option for next year.

The results have been inconsistent so far, as they have been throughout much of Snell’s career. He has two Cy Young awards, in 2018 and 2023, but struggled in between. Though he was in Cy Young form just last year, his 2024 got off to a rough start.

Since he didn’t sign until the second half of March, he had a hasty ramp-up and then struggled in his first three starts. He landed on the injured list with an adductor strain, came back for three more bad outings, then returned to the IL with a groin strain.

He was sitting on a 9.51 ERA after those six starts but has since returned and been dominant. He’s made four starts since coming off his second IL stint and only allowed two earned runs in 24 innings. He has struck out 35.7% of batters faced in those four outings, highlighted by punching out 15 Rockies in six shutout innings on Saturday.

The Giants are below .500 at 53-55. That only puts them 3.5 games back of a playoff spot in a relatively weak National League Wild Card race, but they may consider doing some selling. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs still give them a 21.2% chance of sneaking into the postseason though the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them down at 9.8%, which could lead to them prioritizing the future.

Making Snell available could allow them to recoup some prospect talent while also clearing $30MM off next year’s payroll that they could reinvest in the team. That might happen anyway if Snell opts out but isn’t a guarantee. Such a move would hurt them in 2024 but wouldn’t necessarily punt their season, as they could still go into the stretch run with a rotation core of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and Robbie Ray. There’s also Alex Cobb, who was supposed to be reinstated from the IL over the weekend but was delayed by a blister. The club also has young starters like Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong that they could work into the mix.

Snell’s talents will undoubtedly lead to many exploratory calls, but the offers might be tempered by the player option situation. That’s especially true of club’s with competitive balance tax concerns, which applies to the three other clubs connected to Snell. The Yankees are slated to be a third-time payor and above the fourth tax tier, meaning they are facing a 110% tax on any new spending they take on. Next year’s payroll is more open but they will want to have some powder dry for making a run at Juan Soto and other free agents. The Padres and Cubs are both right up against the base CBT threshold this year and seem loath to cross it.

The O’s are nowhere near any tax concerns and have loads of payroll flexibility, making them an interesting fit on Snell. The front of their rotation now consists of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Eflin, with Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez in the back end. Kremer’s career 4.32 ERA makes him fine for eating regular season innings but the O’s would ideally like to push him out of consideration for playoff starts. Suarez has a solid 3.62 ERA this year but is a 34-year-old journeyman who didn’t pitch in the majors from 2018 to 2023, meaning Baltimore probably doesn’t want to be relying on him either.

Whether it’s Snell or someone else, it seems possible they make some kind of bold strike in the days to come. In addition to the payroll flexibility, their farm system is regarded as one of the best in the league, giving them plenty of prospect capital to work with. The trade deadline is Tuesday at 5pm Central.

Padres To Acquire Jason Adam From Rays

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The Padres acquired right-hander Jason Adam from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. The Padres are sending righty Dylan Lesko, outfielder Homer Bush Jr. and catcher J.D. Gonzalez to Tampa. The Friars designated right-hander Glenn Otto for assignment to open a roster spot while the Rays reinstated Jeffrey Springs from the 60-day injured list to take Adam’s spot.

Like so many other players before him, Adam bounced around the league before finally becoming his best self in Tampa. He was drafted by the Royals back in 2010 and subsequently spent time in several organizations, including the Padres, as well as the Twins, Blue Jays and Cubs. He was non-tendered by the Cubs after 2021, at that point sitting on a 4.71 earned run average through 78 1/3 major league innings. He had struck out 27.9% of batters faced but also given out walks at a high rate of 11.4%.

The Rays signed him going into 2022 and he has taken his game to another level since then. He made 170 appearances as a Ray with a 2.30 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He has 24 saves and 51 holds in that time. That includes 47 appearances this year with a 2.49 ERA. His 27.8% strikeout rate in 2024 is a few ticks below recent years but his 47.3% ground ball rate is a personal best.

All contending clubs are looking to bolster their bullpens at this time of year and that’s especially true of the Padres. Their relief corps has a combined ERA of 4.19, which places them in the bottom third of the league. They’ve received good results from Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, Yuki Matsui and others but guys like Wandy Peralta and Enyel De Los Santos have struggled, with Peralta currently on the injured list.

Adding Adam and his skills to that relief group is understandably appealing, as is his modest salary. Though he turns 33 years old next month, his long journey to being established at the major league level has led to him having a delayed path to notable earnings. He qualified for arbitration for the first time going into 2023 as a Super Two player and made $1.775MM last year, getting a modest bump to $2.7MM here in 2024. He is eligible for two more arbitration seasons before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.

The Padres had to make significant salary cuts in the offseason, which led to Juan Soto getting trading to the Yankees. They have still attempted to field a competitive team here in 2024 and have succeeded. They are currently on a seven-game winning streak that has bumped them to 57-50 and possession of a National League Wild Card spot. But they seemingly want to avoid the competitive balance tax this year and are currently on pace to do so.

RosterResource calculates their CBT number at $225MM, roughly $12MM away from the $237MM base threshold. That appears to give them a decent amount of wiggle room but that’s an unofficial estimate. Adam has less than a $1MM left to be paid out this year, so he will only marginally increase San Diego’s CBT number, perhaps leaving the front office room for further moves.

The Rays aren’t buried in the standings but have decided to do some selling this year anyway, seemingly due to a combination of strong depth as well as a seller’s market. Their record is currently 53-52, just four games out of a playoff spot, yet they have already traded multiple established big leaguers for younger talent. They have sent Zach Eflin to the Orioles, Aaron Civale to the Brewers, Randy Arozarena to the Mariners and now Adam to the Padres.

They still have a chance to compete down the stretch but have not been shy about making these kinds of moves, seemingly content to add some young talent and save some money while trying to backfill the lost talent from within their own system. With Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen nearing returns from elbow surgeries, they had readymade rotation replacements. Baz came up to take Civale’s spot and Springs is about to do the same for Eflin. Arozerena’s playing time can be given to guys like Richie Palacios or Jonny DeLuca, while the club always has intriguing bullpen arms on hand and can likely put together a solid relief corps even without Adam.

Lesko, 20, is viewed as the most intriguing part of their return in this deal. The Padres selected him 15th overall in 2022 and he has received plenty of love from prospect evaluators since then. His time in the minors has seen him miss plenty of bats but also the strike zone. He has thrown 69 2/3 innings over 16 starts at the High-A level this year with a 6.46 ERA. He has struck out 25% of batters faced but walked 16.5% of them.

Despite the control issues, he is still considered one of the better prospects in the league. FanGraphs currently lists him #88 overall and MLB Pipeline #76. Baseball America had him #38 overall coming into the year but he’s no longer on the top 100 and was recently bumped to #5 in the Padres’ system. Perhaps the Padres are moving on from a prospect that they have soured on or they have simply accepted this as the price of getting a quality reliever who is affordable and controllable. Either way, Tampa has a strong reputation of getting the best out of players and could perhaps get Lesko back on track in the years to come.

Bush is naturally the son of former big leaguer Homer Bush. The younger Bush was a fourth-round pick of the Padres last year. He is a speed-and-defense specialist with a contact-based approach at the plate. In 130 minor league games, he has seven home runs, a 9.5% walk rate and 15.7% strikeout rate, leading to a line of .290/.383/.379. He also has 65 steals in 76 tries. BA currently ranks him 12th in the Padres’ system.

Gonzalez was a third-round pick last year and BA currently ranks him #8 in the system. He is only hitting .205/.322/.230 in Single-A this year but is projected to potentially be a two-way player from behind the plate someday.

Otto was claimed off waivers in September. He began the year on the injured list with a right teres major strain. He began a rehab assignment in early June and was optioned later that month. He has tossed 15 1/3 innings in the minors this year with a 7.63 ERA. The Friars will have a few days to consider trades or put him on waivers.

The Padres have made a notable upgrade to their bullpen for the stretch run but surely aren’t done. Bob Nightengale of USA reports on X that they are now going to turn their attentions to the rotation. The Rays have already made a number of future-focused moves but could perhaps consider more, with players like Pete Fairbanks, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz candidates to go in the coming days.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Adam was heading to the Padres on X. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reported Lesko’s inclusion on X. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported on X that Bush and a third prospect were also going to Tampa. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first relayed Gonzalez on X.

Red Sox Designate Reese McGuire, Chase Anderson For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves today. Left-hander James Paxton and catcher Danny Jansen, both recently acquired via trade, are active with the club. To make room for those two, the Sox designated right-hander Chase Anderson and backstop Reese McGuire for assignment. That opened two roster spots and they used one of those to claim right-hander Yohan Ramírez, recently designated for assignment by the Dodgers, off waivers.

McGuire, 29, has been with the Red Sox since 2022, generally serving as a light-hitting backup catcher but with strong defensive grades. He has seven Defensive Runs Saved in his career while each of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast consider him to be a strong framer.

But when he steps out from behind the plate and stands beside it, the results are less impressive. He has a career batting line of .252/.300/.364, which translates to a wRC+ of 79. He’s been even worse this year, with a .209/.280/.295 batting line and 59 wRC+.

That production likely inspired the Sox to go out and get Jansen, pairing him with Connor Wong behind the plate. Since McGuire is out of options, he’s been nudged off the roster entirely. He’s making a fairly modest salary of $1.5MM and can be retained for another year via arbitration. His poor results this year mean that he won’t be in line for a huge raise, so perhaps some club will be interested in him as a glove-first backup.

Anderson, 36, is a veteran who signed a modest $1.25MM deal with the Sox for this year. He’s been in a long relief role with the Sox, tossing 52 innings over 27 appearances. He’s allowed 4.85 earned runs per nine this year. His 8.5% walk rate is around average but his 15.6% strikeout rate and 32.5% ground ball rate are well below par. If it weren’t for a .229 batting average on balls in play, he probably would have allowed more runs across the plate.

The Sox will have until Tuesday’s trade deadline to deal either McGuire or Anderson, though they probably won’t find much interest in either, which could lead to both players being on waivers. Anderson has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while retaining all of his salary. McGuire has more than three but less than five years of service, meaning he would have the right to elect free agency but would have to forfeit his remaining salary to hit the open market. That means he might stick with the Sox as non-roster depth if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Ramírez, 29, has tossed 43 2/3 innings this year between the Mets, Orioles and Dodgers, frequently bouncing around due to his out-of-options status. In that time, he has a 5.98 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 44.4% ground ball rate. All those rate stats are pretty close to league average, so his .339 BABIP and 60.8% strand rate might be pushing his ERA up a bit. HIs 4.18 FIP and 3.77 SIERA point to better results going forward.

Since the righty is out of options, the Sox will have to install him onto the active roster, meaning someone from their bullpen will have to be optioned whenever he reports to the team. He can be retained for three more seasons after this one if he hangs onto his roster spot.

Marlins To Place Josh Bell On Waivers

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The Marlins are placing first baseman Josh Bell on waivers, reports Robert Murray of FanSided on X. At this point, there’s been nothing to suggest Bell has been removed from the roster. In fact, he’s in the lineup for Miami’s game against the Brewers that is taking place as of this writing. It’s possible he stays in Miami if he clears waivers, similar to what happened with Kevin Kiermaier and the Blue Jays earlier this month.

When a player is placed on waivers without being removed from the roster, the club is hoping that some other team will put in a claim and take the contract off their hands. If the player clears, they can send them outright to a minor league affiliate. But Bell has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while retaining all of his salary, so the club can also decide to simply hang onto the player. That’s what transpired with Kiermaier, as he went unclaimed but the Jays kept him around.

Bell, 31, has had some really good seasons in his career but has been trending down of late. He slashed .266/.362/.422 for a wRC+ of 123 in 2022 and then headed into free agency. The Guardians signed him to a two-year, $33MM deal, with Bell making $16.5MM in each year and having the ability to opt out after the first season.

His tenure in Cleveland didn’t go especially well. He slashed .233/.318/.383 in 97 games for a wRC+ of 96. Since Bell isn’t especially fast nor considered a strong defender at first base, he needs to hit to provide value.

He was flipped to Miami at last year’s trade deadline in a swap of bad contracts, with Jean Segura and prospect Kahlil Watson going the other way. Bell’s results improved after the deal, as he hit .270/.338/.480 for a wRC+ of 119 and helped the Marlins get into the playoffs. Despite the hot start, he decided to trigger his player option and stick with the Fish for one more year.

But he hasn’t been able to carry over his strong finish from 2023, as he’s hitting .239/.303/.396 this year for a wRC+ of 96. With his lack of contributions on defense or the basepaths, he’s been below replacement level.

There’s just a bit under $6MM left on Bell’s deal, so the odds of him being claimed are pretty slim. The Marlins are clearly in sell mode, as they have traded controllable players like Luis Arráez and Jazz Chisholm Jr., so a rental player like Bell will undoubtedly be available. Though assuming he goes unclaimed in the coming days, the Fish will likely have to eat some of that money to facilitate a deal. Clubs like the Yankees, Astros, Mariners and others are looking for first base help and could perhaps look into buying low on Bell.

Blue Jays Listening To Trade Offers On Isiah Kiner-Falefa

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Blue Jays infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been on the 10-day injured list since the start of July due to a a left knee sprain, but he started a rehab assignment yesterday and could perhaps be traded prior to Tuesday’s deadline. Even if he’s not reinstated by then, trades of players on the IL are allowed and the Jays are willing to listen to offers, per both Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet on X and Robert Murray of FanSided.

Kiner-Falefa, 29, has long been a glove-first utility man. In his career, he has received strong grades for his work at the three infield spots to the left of first base. He’s also played all three outfield slots with some passable marks out there. Through the end of 2023, he had hit just .261/.314/.346 for a wRC+ of 81 but had stolen 74 bases in 98 tries.

The Jays signed him in the offseason to a two-year deal that paid him $15MM plus $1MM in incentives and he was having the best offensive showing of his career prior to the knee injury. He had seven home runs in 83 games, which isn’t a massive total but a nice jump for IKF personally as his career high is eight. He was only drawing walks at a 4.6% clip but also limited strikeouts to a 13.2% rate. His current .292/.338/.420 batting line translates to a 116 wRC+ in this year’s offensive environment.

Kiner-Falefa has close to 3,000 innings at shortstop in his career with 27 Defensive Runs Saved in that time. Outs Above Average has him at -5, but most of that is due to a -6 tally back in 2021. In almost 1500 innings at third base, he has 24 DRS and 24 OAA. His second base track record is barely over 400 innings but has nonetheless translated to 8 DRS and 2 OAA, while his over 500 innings in the outfield have been just a bit below par.

The Blue Jays are clear sellers but have mostly been focused on moving rental players. They’ve already traded Yimi García to the Mariners, Danny Jansen to the Red Sox and could look to flip Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier and Trevor Richards in the coming days. While they are reportedly not trying to move core controllable guys like Bo Bichette or Vladimir Guerrero Jr., they are clearly at least willing to entertain moving some non-rental guys. They recently traded Nate Pearson to the Cubs despite Pearson having two extra seasons of control beyond this one.

Kiner-Falefa could perhaps garner interest due to the lack of other infielders that are available, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently examined in a piece of Front Office subscribers. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is already off the board after being acquired by the Yankees. Brandon Drury and Paul DeJong are having underwhelming seasons.

There are a few guys out there, such as Luis Rengifo of the Angels. The Rays have Amed Rosario and are probably open to offers on Brandon Lowe and Isaac Paredes, though the prices on the latter two should be pretty notable. The Reds might listen on Jonathan India but it’s unclear how available he really is. Ditto for Nico Hoerner of the Cubs.

Even after getting Chisholm, the Yankees are still looking for help at third base. Clubs like the Rangers, Astros, Dodgers, Red Sox, Mariners, Atlanta and the Pirates could be looking for infield upgrades in the coming days. Perhaps the imbalance between supply and demand will lead to the Jays getting some interesting calls. They could always keep Kiner-Falefa for the second year of his deal but their infield mix has also changed since they signed him.

Ernie Clement has essentially been performing the role IKF was brought in for, providing quality defense at multiple spots with a contact-based approach at the plate. Spencer Horwitz moved from first base to second base due to Guerrero being locked in at first. Horwitz has been hitting well while seemingly performing capable enough at the keystone. Leo Jiménez is covering shortstop with Bichette on the injured list. Orelvis Martinez will be back in the mix after he serves his 80-game PED suspension. Guys like Addison Barger and Davis Schneider are also capable of playing some infield. On the outfield, even without Kiermaier next year, the Jays currently project to have George Springer and Daulton Varsho with Barger and Schneider in play, as well as Jonatan Clase, recently acquired in the Garcia trade.

Perhaps IKF is more useful to them at this point as a trade chip than as a part of their 2025 plans. IKF’s contract has a $7.5MM competitive balance tax hit for the year but an acquiring club would only be taking on about a third of that by trading for him now. It’s also possible the Jays could look to eat some of the money owed to him in order to facilitate a deal.

Orioles Still Looking To Make Additions

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The Orioles have already made a few notable moves in the lead-up to the trade deadline. They sent outfielder Austin Hays to the Phillies for fellow outfielder Cristian Pache and reliever Seranthony Domínguez, and also bolstered their rotation by acquiring Zach Eflin from the Rays. But they still have work to do, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reporting that they are looking to add another reliever, who would ideally be left-handed, as well as a right-handed hitting outfielder to replace Hays and perhaps another starting pitcher.

Even with Eflin slotting in behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, it’s easy to see why the O’s would want to add yet another arm into that mix. The final two rotation spots are currently held by Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez, both of whom could be improved upon.

Kremer has a servicebale 4.32 earned run average in his career and a 4.20 mark this year, but his .240 batting average on balls in play here in 2024 might be keeping that ERA artificially low. In general, he’s been more of a back-end guy than the type of arm they would want in the mix for starting a playoff game. Suárez is in the big leagues for the first time since 2017, having spent much of the interim pitching in Japan and Korea. His 3.48 ERA this year is certainly respectable but he’s 34 years old and the O’s have kicked him to the bullpen before.

Rosenthal adds that the club is willing to add a rental starter to that pile, listing Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Blake Snell and Frankie Montas as possible fits. Snell has another year left on his deal but has an opt-out at year’s end. Rosenthal says teams are expecting him to trigger that opt-out but it’s not a guarantee, as it’s entirely possible some injury or poor performance leads to him taking the proverbial bird in the hand. Trading players with opt-outs is a tricky situation that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers.

The mention of Flaherty is interesting as the O’s acquired him at last year’s deadline and it didn’t go well. The righty had a 6.75 ERA in 34 2/3 innings with Baltimore last year, getting bumped to the bullpen in the process.

However, he has completely turned things around here in 2024. In 18 starts with the Tigers, he has a 2.95 ERA, 32% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. That’s the best form he’s been in since 2019, when he looked to be breaking out as one of the better pitchers in the league. He then suffered through a number of injury-marred seasons and took some time getting over them, but there’s no doubting he’s been excellent this year.

Front offices are generally loath to reacquire a player if they already had him and it didn’t go well. If the second attempt also fails to deliver, then it invites the obvious criticism of why they tried the same thing that already didn’t work once, something that was recently discussed on the MLBTR Podcast. However, Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic published a column a few days ago that said the O’s aren’t ruling out another run at Flaherty.

Though there’s a chance for a negative PR situation if Flaherty struggles in Baltimore again, he’s got the best combination of talent and availability among starting pitchers. He is on a one-year deal and therefore a rental, pitching for a Detroit club that is 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. While pitchers like Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal are in a similar range as Flaherty in terms of impact, they may be harder to pry loose.

Both of Skubal and Crochet are controllable for two years behind this season, meaning the price will be higher. Crochet also has the extra complication of his unclear path to the end of the season, as his limited workload makes it unclear what he can contribute. Some clubs may want to move him to a relief role but Crochet himself reportedly prefers to continue starting and would want to sign a contract extension prior to adjusting his routine.

With the question marks around Skubal and Crochet, it makes sense that the O’s aren’t crossing Flaherty off their list of targets, as the other options are less appealing. Kikuchi and Montas are having okay but not amazing years, to differing extents, while Snell has been inconsistent and also has the aforementioned contract complications.

Turning to the bullpen, though Domínguez is a nice addition, further upgrades make plenty of sense. Baltimore relievers have a collective 3.87 ERA this year, which places them 14th out of the 30 clubs in the majors. With Danny Coulombe on the injured list, their southpaw contingent is made up of Cionel Pérez, Keegan Akin and Cole Irvin. Akin has really good numbers this year but hasn’t been pitching in many high-leverage situations. Pérez has been given more meaningful assignments but with a subpar 4.40 ERA. Irvin was in the rotation before some struggles got him nudged into a long relief role.

Upgrading that group is plenty sensible and the O’s have already been connected to Tanner Scott of the Orioles. Other lefties that could be available include Andrew Chafin of the Tigers, Jalen Beeks of the Rockies, Taylor Rogers of the Giants and others.

In the outfield, the club leans heavily left-handed with Hays now out of the mix. Pache is right-handed but he’s mostly a defensive specialist, having hit .179/.243/.272 in his career. Anthony Santander is a switch-hitter but each of Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers hit from the left side, as does designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and shortstop Gunnar Henderson.

Getting another righty in there makes sense, especially if they end up moving on from first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. They are reportedly open to trading him and/or Mullins, though sending out Hays perhaps makes those scenarios less likely.

Rosenthal throws out veterans Tommy Pham and Kevin Pillar as a couple of righty-swinging outfielders that could make sense for the O’s, though guys like Brent Rooker, Luis Robert Jr., Lane Thomas, Miguel Andujar and Taylor Ward could also be available. The trade deadline is 5pm Central on Tuesday July 30.

Orioles Acquire Zach Eflin From Rays

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The Orioles have acquired right-hander Zach Eflin and cash considerations from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. Going to the Rays are outfielder Matthew Etzel, right-hander Jackson Baumeister and utility player Mac Horvath. Right-hander Vinny Nittoli has been designated for assignment by the O’s to get Eflin onto their roster.

Eflin, 30, has been a solid big league starter for many years, including his time with the Phillies and with the Rays as well. Since the start of 2018, he has allowed 4.01 earned runs per nine frames in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 44.8% ground ball rate in that time were both close to league averages and he also limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%. Here in 2024, he has a 4.09 ERA in 19 starts. His strikeout rate is down to 18.9% but he’s also lowered his walk rate to 2.8%.

About a month ago, it was reported that the Rays could be looking to make some starting pitchers available, even if they weren’t sellers in the classically understood definition. They had a rotation consisting of Eflin, Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot, with Tyler Alexander on hand as a depth option. On top of that group, they had Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen each getting back to health after significant elbow surgeries.

As the overall group became healthier, the Rays were seemingly open to subtracting, as doing so could allow them to address other parts of their roster, save some money, bolster their farm system or some combination of those goals, and still keep a fairly healthy rotation for the stretch run. The most logical candidates for such a trade were Civale, Littell and Eflin as the three of them were slated for free agency after 2025. Civale was flipped to the Brewers a few weeks ago and replaced in the rotation by Baz, with Eflin now moving on as well.

The Baltimore rotation has been in the opposite position, as it’s been getting less healthy as the season has gone along. Each of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells required UCL surgery earlier this year, putting them out of action for the remainder of the campaign.

They still had a strong front two in the rotation with Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, but there’s been far less certainty behind them. Prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott were each given brief auditions but weren’t impressive. Dean Kremer has a serviceable 4.43 ERA but might be lucky to have that, considering his .227 batting average on balls in play. Albert Suárez has a 3.48 ERA but is a 34-year-old journeyman who is back in the majors for the first time since 2017. Cole Irvin has been moved between the rotation and bullpen due to inconsistent results. Bolstering that group is plenty sensible and it now looks much stronger with Eflin in it. Burnes is set to reach free agency after this season, so acquiring Eflin is also a notable move for Baltimore’s 2025 rotation.

In addition to the situation in Tampa’s rotation, an Eflin deal has seemed likely due to his contract. He signed a three-year pact with the Rays going into 2023, with the $40MM guarantee being backloaded. He was paid $11MM last year and is making that same amount here in 2024, with an $18MM salary for 2025. The Rays often trade their players before they reach free agency and slinking away from that large commitment in the final season of the deal always seemed possible.

The Rays are covering Eflin’s $1MM trade bonus but the O’s are otherwise absorbing the deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, both on X. That’s perhaps a notable development as the Orioles haven’t spent much money since their last competitive window closed. Per the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the O’s had nine-figure Opening Day payrolls from 2014 to 2018 but haven’t been back to that level since then.

Some of the light spending has been due to the club rebuilding in recent years but their return to contention hasn’t led to a loosening of the pursestrings. The O’s haven’t given a multi-year deal to a free agent since Alex Cobb in early 2018 and the largest guarantee of any kind given out since then is the $13MM given to Craig Kimbrel on his one-year deal.

David Rubenstein purchased the franchise from the Angelos family earlier this year and it has been hoped that the ownership change would also lead to a change in spending habits. Perhaps the fact that the O’s are taking on an $18MM salary for next year is a sign that Baltimore will be operating differently from now on.

Turning to Tampa’s end of the deal, they are presumably saving at least a little bit of money while also adding three fresh prospects to their system. Baseball America just updated their list of the top 30 Orioles’ farmhands, with Horvath in the #13 slot and Baumeister at #18, through Etzel doesn’t crack the list.

Horwath, 23, was selected in the second round of last year’s draft. He’s hitting .232/.328/.417 in High-A this year for a 110 wRC+. He’s also stolen 26 bases while playing second base, third base and the outfield.

Baumeister, 22, was taken with a competitive balance pick last year, 63rd overall. He has made 18 starts at the High-A level this year with a 3.06 ERA and 29.5% strikeout rate, though a 14% walk rate. Etzel was a tenth-round pick last year and has slashed .289/.363/.445 for a 126 wRC+ between High-A and Double-A this year.

The O’s are 61-41 and tied for the best record in the American League but were heading into the stretch run with a flimsy rotation. They’ve strengthened it with a solid veteran, both for this year and next. They have subtracted from their farm system but it’s considered one of the best in the league and they held onto their top guys. Though the rotation is better than it was before this trade, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them add another arm. It’s also been reported that they could trade someone like Ryan Mountcastle or Cedric Mullins, though perhaps today’s trade of Austin Hays to the Phillies makes that less likely.

The Rays have added to their pool of young talent while shedding some payroll commitments, but still go into the final months of this season with a fairly solid rotation. Perhaps they are still hoping to compete but it also seems a more significant sell-off is in the cards. They traded outfielder Randy Arozarena to the Mariners yesterday and it’s possible that guys like Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jason Adam, Pete Fairbanks and others could be available in the coming days.

Prior to this trade, Eflin was also connected to clubs like the Astros, Atlanta and the Cardinals. Those clubs will now have to look elsewhere for rotation upgrades in the coming days. Pitchers like Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal and others have been in rumors with varying degrees of availability.

Nittoli was just added to Baltimore’s roster less than two weeks ago and they will now have to either trade him or put him on waivers in the coming days. He has a 1.50 ERA in 12 big league innings this year between the O’s and the A’s.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported on X that the O’s would be getting Eflin. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the prospects going back to the Rays on X. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relayed Nittoli’s DFA on X.

Blake Snell Among Giants Drawing Trade Interest

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8:46pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that five teams have shown some amount of interest in Snell.

10:22 am: The Giants have hovered around the National League Wild Card race for most of the year but slipped back recently, which could lead to them deciding to sell prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic took a look at some possible trade candidates, reporting that left-hander Blake Snell is drawing significant trade interest. Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic listed Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores as bats that are available around the league. Baggarly also mentions right-hander Alex Cobb and lefty Taylor Rogers as candidates to be moved in the coming days.

San Francisco is currently 49-55, which only puts them 5.5 games back of the nearest playoff spot, but they would have to pull away from the Cubs and then pass the Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Padres in order to get into postseason position. They’re not totally buried but the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just an 11.5% shot of getting in while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic at 5.6%. With that kind of Hail Mary window, it’s logical that the Giants would look into shifting their priorities to optimizing next year’s team, which would mean making some players available now.

It’s unsurprising that Snell would draw significant trade interest, though his trade candidacy would have complications. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball when at his best, which is why he has two Cy Young awards on his mantel. That includes getting last year’s National League trophy when he posted a 2.25 earned run average over 32 starts with the Padres.

But 2024 has been far less smooth. Despite his excellent 2023 campaign, he lingered in free agency for a long time and didn’t sign with the Giants until the middle of March. After a quick ramp-up, he made three rough starts before landing on the injured list with a left adductor strain. He returned from the IL and had three more bad outings before returning to the IL in early June with a left groin strain. At that time, he had an ERA of 9.51 in those six starts.

He has since returned and been in much better form. He shut out the Blue Jays and then the Twins before allowing two earned runs against the Dodgers. Those three better starts have reduced his ERA to 5.83 for the year.

Despite the inconsistent results this year, some clubs would surely be willing to bank on his track record and recent return to form. However, his contract adds another layer of complication. He signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end.

Trading players with such provisions is usually a tricky proposition, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers and it’s a situation that Giant fans are likely familiar with from the Carlos Rodón saga from a few years ago. Despite having a dominant season for a middling Giants club, Rodón wasn’t moved at the deadline as he had an upcoming opt-out that seemed to ward off potential buyers.

Players in such situations are mostly downside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will leave, making them a rental in a best-case scenario. If they perform poorly or get hurt, they will stick around and keep their notable salary on the books. Surrendering notable prospects for such an arrangement is often an unattractive proposition and the selling club might not want to give up a star player for an uninspiring return.

Snell’s contract consists of a $15MM salary this year and a $17MM signing bonus that Baggarly notes is not transferable to a trade partner. There’s a $30MM player option for 2025 that Snell could trigger if he finishes the season poorly or is injured, but he could also opt-out if he finishes strong. Those complications might soften the offers but demand for pitching is expected to outstrip supply, especially in terms of front-of-the-rotation type arms, so perhaps the Giants will get some intriguing calls.

It makes sense that the Giants would listen to offers to see if they could get that contract off their books while also recouping some younger talent. Even without Snell, next year’s rotation could consist of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks, with Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn perhaps back in the mix if their health allows. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt has reached Triple-A while the club also has Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Kai-Wei Teng on the 40-man roster.

Sticking with the rotation, Cobb is a more straightforward trade candidate in the sense that he’s an impending free agent. Even though he underwent hip surgery in October, the Giants picked up his $10MM option for this year in the hopes that he wouldn’t miss that much time. Unfortunately, his return has been slowed by some elbow and shoulder issues and still hasn’t pitched in the majors this season.

He has been rehabbing of late and tossed five shutout innings at the Triple-A level on Saturday. Baggarly notes that he could be reinstated and pitch for the Giants on Sunday, which would essentially be a pre-deadline showcase for interested clubs. The injury issues from this year will likely give clubs some hesitation but Cobb is an established veteran with a 3.85 ERA over 230 career starts. As recently as last year, he was able to toss 151 1/3 innings with a 3.87 ERA.

As for the bats, Rosenthal mentioned Flores as a trade candidate on Wednesday but the Giants put him on the IL the next day due to right knee tendonitis. Players on the IL can still be traded but he is also having a down season, hitting .206/.277/.318 for a wRC+ of 71. He’s making $6.5MM this year and then has a dual player/team option for 2025. He first has to decide on a $3.5MM player option and then, if he declines, the team would have an $8.5MM option available. Given his down season, he might be inclined to pick up his end of the deal rather than going to free agency.

Conforto is a straightforward trade candidate since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a two-year, $36MM deal going into 2023 and then declined to opt out after hitting a league-average .239/.334/.384 last year. He started out well this year but has tapered off. He was hitting .280/.331/.490 when he landed on the IL on May 12 due to a right hamstring strain. Since coming off the IL in early June, he’s hitting .165/.262/.331.

Yastrzemski can be retained via arbitration through next year, but there’s logic in considering trades now. He’ll turn 34 next month and is making $7.9MM, meaning he could be looking for an eight-figure salary in arbitration next year. He’s been a consistently solid player during his career on both sides of the ball. He has hit .241/.326/.458 for a wRC+ of 114 while racking up 35 Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average. Per FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.6 wins above replacement in every previous season of his career and is currently at 1.3 fWAR this year.

Even without Conforto and Yastrzemski, the Giants could go into next year with an outfield mix consisting of Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos with guys like Derek Hill, Tyler Fitzgerald and Wade Meckler also in the mix.

As for Rogers, he’s in the second season of a three-year, $33MM deal he signed with the Giants. He has continued to pitch well and the Giants could keep him for next year, but moving now might also make sense. He has a 2.27 ERA this year but that’s largely propped up by an unsustainable 84.1% strand rate. His 25.6% strikeout rate is his worst since 2017 and he’ll be turning 34 this winter.

Teams generally sign free agents looking for most production in the beginning of the deal, with the later years a pill they swallow as the price of doing business. If there’s a way for them to wriggle out of the last season of the Rogers pact, they might consider taking it. Such a move could potentially free up some cash, bring back some young talent or both. It would create a hole in next year’s bullpen but relievers are often viewed as volatile and fairly replaceable.

All together, the Giants make for an interesting late entry into a market that has been perceived to have a lack of sellers. As laid out by Baggarly, the club could try to duck under the competitive balance tax in the days to come but it would be difficult to do. RosterResource estimates they are currently just above $253MM, more than $16MM above the $237MM base threshold. They would effectively have to find takers for all the money owed to Snell, Rogers, Conforto, Yastrzemski and Cobb to dip under and therefore might be focused on prospect capital between now and the July 30 deadline.

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