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Padres Sign Ty Adcock To Major League Deal

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The Padres announced that they have signed right-hander Ty Adcock to a one-year deal for the 2026 season. The Friars have multiple 40-man vacancies and don’t need to make a corresponding move.

Adcock is still a bit of a project, even though he was drafted over six years ago and will turn 29 years old in February. The Mariners selected him in the in eighth round of the 2019 draft but he wouldn’t make his professional debut for a few years. The pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in 2020 and then Adcock required Tommy John surgery in 2021. He has been back on the mound but has also spent time on the minor league injured list in each of the past three seasons.

Those stops and starts have limited his ability to rack up innings and have also pushed him into a fringe roster position. The M’s called him up in 2023 but he got bumped off the roster the following year. He went to the Tigers and Mets via waivers in 2024. The Mets released and re-signed him later that season. He was added back to the roster in 2025 but was later outrighted. He was able to elect free agency at season’s end.

Around all of that, he has thrown 23 major league innings, allowing 14 earned runs for a 5.48 ERA. He has thrown 94 innings in the minors with a 4.40 ERA. Those numbers may not leap off the page but the Padres are probably more interested in the stuff. Adcock’s fastball averaged over 97 miles per hour in his limited big league action this year. He also averaged over 93 mph on his cutter while mixing in a splitter, sinker and slider.

That stuff hasn’t yet translated into results but it’s still a small sample of work. He has a 20.4% strikeout rate in his major league innings but a more robust 25.2% rate in his slightly larger collection of minor league innings.

Adcock has exhausted his three option years but the Padres could be in position to apply for a fourth. A team can apply for a fourth option when a player has played fewer than five full seasons. In these instances, a “full season” involves spending 90 days on an active roster, either in the majors or minors. It’s also possible to be credited with a full season with 30 active days and then 90-plus days on the roster total when combined with injured list time. As mentioned, Adcock didn’t make his professional debut until 2022, so he would seem to qualify.

More clarity on his option status will perhaps be revealed in time. For now, he adds a wild card arm to the Padres’ bullpen, likely at minimal cost. Adcock has less than a year of service time and will probably make something close to the $780K league minimum.

That’s surely attractive for the Padres, given their ongoing financial crunch. Their bullpen has lost Robert Suarez to free agency and they also might end up moving Mason Miller and/or Adrián Morejón to the rotation. If Adcock thrives with the Padres, he can be retained until he gets to six years of service time and he is still years away from qualifying for arbitration.

Photo courtesy of Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images

Rangers Unlikely To Have Payroll Room For J.T. Realmuto

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The Rangers non-tendered catcher Jonah Heim, which means they are on the lookout for more catching. The top free agent available is J.T. Realmuto but columns today from Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic as well as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News both suggest the club doesn’t have the payroll space to sign him.

Without Heim, the Rangers are down to two catchers on their 40-man roster. Kyle Higashioka is a solid player but he turns 36 years old in April. He has started between 68 and 77 games in four straight seasons. He can be part of the club’s catching corps next year but should have someone to share the workload. The other catcher on the roster is Willie MacIver, a 29-year-old waiver claimee with 33 games of big league experience. He is still optionable and would ideally be in Triple-A as depth.

Realmuto would certainly be a nice addition. He has been arguably the best catcher in baseball over the past decade. He is now about to turn 35 years old and isn’t at his peak but he’s still a solid contributor. In 2025, he had average-ish offense, stole eight bases and got mixed reviews for his glovework. All together, it was worth 2.1 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. He’s averaged a bit above two wins per year for the past three years.

Though he’s the top free agent out there, his earning power is capped by his age. MLBTR predicted him for a $30MM guarantee over two years. It’s possible he can secure himself a third year at a similar average annual value. The fact that a deal like that is too rich for the Rangers’ blood doesn’t bode especially well but they will have other options.

Both of the columns linked above mention Victor Caratini and Danny Jansen is more realistic free agent targets. MLBTR predicted Caratini for a two-year, $14MM deal and had Jansen as an honorable mention on the Top 50 Free Agents list. The 32-year-old Caratini has spent the past two years with the Astros. The switch-hitter was above average from both sides of the plate in those years, though his defense was more questionable. Jansen, a righty swinger, was also decent at the plate in 2025 but with some shaky defensive metrics.

There’s also the trade market. Both aforementioned columns speculate on various possible trading partners. Grant specifically calls out Carter Jensen of the Royals as a player the Rangers have long been interested in. Jensen is one of the top Royals’ prospects and one of the top catching prospects in the game. He hit .290/.377/.501 in the minors this year and then .300/.391/.550 in a 20-game major league debut. He just turned 22 in July.

The Royals probably don’t have a ton of interest in trading him, though there’s at least a case for them to consider it. They have Salvador Perez signed through 2027. He has been spending more time as a first baseman and designated hitter in recent years but has still been catching about 90 games per year for Kansas City. Jensen could share the catching duties with Perez but the Royals also have another strong catching prospect lurking. Blake Mitchell was the eighth overall pick in 2023 and will likely start 2026 at Double-A.

Since the Royals need upgrades and don’t appear to have a ton of spending power, perhaps they would consider trading from a position of relative depth, but that doesn’t mean they’d give Jensen away. Grant speculates that the Rangers might have to give up a prospect of similar value such as Sebastian Walcott.

There are a few other options available to the Rangers. Grant also speculates that they could go after a short-term solution, such as Ryan Jeffers of the Twins or Joey Bart of the Pirates. The Rangers used their 2024 first-round pick to nab Malcolm Moore but he has struggled at the plate and hasn’t climbed higher than High-A, so won’t be helpful for a while. Jeffers is controlled for just one more year and Bart two, so a player like that could serve as a bridge to Moore or at least buy the Rangers some time.

Time will tell how the Rangers play the catching situation specifically but the larger takeaway about the budget is perhaps not great for fans. For a few months now, the signs have been piling up that the club won’t have a ton of spending capacity for building out the 2026 roster. Back in September, the club parted ways with manager Bruce Bochy. At the time, president of baseball operations Chris Young stated that part of the cause of that split was that they didn’t have a clear plan for 2026 due to financial uncertainty. Pitching coach Mike Maddux departed for the Angels and it’s been speculated that might have been motivated by similar circumstances. The Rangers non-tendered Heim but also Adolis García, Josh Sborz and Jacob Webb. García was expected but Sborz and Webb were projected for salaries barely above the league minimum. Then the club traded Marcus Semien to the Mets for Brandon Nimmo, a move that involved taking on more money overall but saved them a few million annually.

After the deal, Nimmo said he was assured by the Rangers that they are not rebuilding and plan to compete, but it appears they will be trying to do that while spending less. RosterResource projects them for about $169MM in spending next year. That’s well below last year’s $224MM. In addition to bolstering their catching group, they need to rebuild the bullpen and shake up the lineup. Their apparently inability to go after Realmuto may be a bit of a moot point in a sense, since many expect him to re-sign in Philadelphia regardless, but it appears to be yet another sign of a tight budget in Texas going into 2026.

Photo courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images

Latest On Mariners’ Bullpen Targets

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Mariners general manager Justin Hollander publicly admitted a few weeks back that the club would be looking for bullpen upgrades. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports that Seattle plans to add two relievers and hopes to have one locked down by the end of the Winter Meetings next week. Adding a lefty is a priority and Jude lists five names they are considering, with four of them being southpaws. They are Matt Strahm of the Phillies, JoJo Romero of the Cardinals, Jose A. Ferrer of the Nationals, as well as free agents Tyler Rogers and Hoby Milner. Rogers is the lone right-hander in that group. Jude also mentions that the Mariners had interest in right-hander Phil Maton before he signed with the Cubs.

Seattle had a decent bullpen group in 2025. Their relievers had a collective 3.72 earned run average, which was ninth in the majors. Andrés Muñoz is one of the better closers in the game. But just about any club can add an extra leverage arm or two and bump other guys down a peg. That’s particularly true for the Mariners from the left side, as Gabe Speier is their only established southpaw reliever at the moment. Robinson Ortiz is the other lefty reliever on the 40-man but he hasn’t yet made his major league debut.

It’s unlikely that the club will spend a lot on the relief group. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto suggested that the M’s will likely begin 2026 with a similar payroll to where they were at the end of 2025. RosterResource estimates that they are currently about $15MM shy of that target. They already re-signed Josh Naylor but could look to further bolster the infield by re-signing Jorge Polanco or Eugenio Suárez. Jude unsurprisingly suggests the M’s aren’t likely to go after a big name reliever like Edwin Díaz or Robert Suarez.

Strahm, 34, is the most established of the bunch. He now has ten big league seasons under his belt. Though he has pushed into his mid-30s, he has remained effective. He just tossed 62 1/3 innings for the Phils this year, allowing 2.74 earned runs per nine. His 7.8% walk rate was a bit better than average and his 27.3% strikeout rate was quite strong. He triggered a vesting option in his contract and will make $7.5MM next year.

All that makes him attractive for the Mariners but also valuable for the Phillies. It’s possible the Phils may be willing to move a lefty due to a relative surplus. They have reportedly received some trade interest since they have Strahm, José Alvarado and Tanner Banks. The Phils have a lot they want to accomplish this winter, including re-signing Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto while also remaking their outfield and perhaps bolstering the rotation. They have some money to spend but perhaps trading one of their lefties could leave them less reliant on spending their cash.

Romero, 29, is a much more straightforward trade candidate. The Cardinals are rebuilding and he is just one year away from free agency. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $4.4MM next year. Over the past three years, he has tossed 156 2/3 innings for the Cards with a 2.93 ERA, 22.9% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 53.3% ground ball rate.

Ferrer, 26 in March, is also on a rebuilding club. However, he’s under club control for four more years and hasn’t yet qualified for arbitration, so the Nats don’t really need to trade him anytime soon. They are surely hoping to return to contention within his window of control but they may be open to a trade anyway, given that a pitcher can get hurt at any time and reliever performance tends to be volatile.

In Ferrer’s career, he has an unimpressive 4.36 ERA but that might mask his true skills. He is a ground ball guy and the Nats have been one of the worst defensive clubs in recent years, so perhaps a change of scenery would help him unlock a new gear in terms of run prevention. In 76 1/3 innings for the Nats this year, his 21.9% strikeout rate was just shy of league average. His 4.9% walk rate and 62.6% ground ball rate were both excellent. His 4.48 ERA doesn’t look great but his 3.03 FIP and 2.85 SIERA provide more optimism about him thriving in a different environment.

Milner, 35 in January, has a somewhat similar grounder-heavy profile to Ferrer. He has logged at least 64 innings in four straight seasons now. Over that 2022-25 span, he has thrown 264 frames with a 3.55 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 51.1% ground ball rate. Despite the solid track record, he was only able to secure a one-year, $2.5MM deal from Texas last winter. Perhaps he’ll have some extra earning power after finishing another solid season but he’s also a year older.

Rogers, 35 this month, is one of the most unique pitchers in the game. Not to be confused with his lefty brother Taylor, Tyler is the submarining righty. He doesn’t rack up strikeouts but he is one of the best in the game when it comes to staying healthy, avoiding walks and inducing grounders as well as soft contact. He has logged at least 70 innings in five straight campaigns. Dating back to the start of 2021, he has 378 1/3 innings with a 2.71 ERA, 17% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate, 56.3% ground ball rate and consistently strong numbers in terms of exit velocity allowed. He is a free agent for the first time and should be in high demand but some teams may be scared off by his age and lack of velocity, as he can barely even get into the 80s with his fastballs.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin, Oncea-Imagn Images

Diamondbacks Interested In Pete Fairbanks

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Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen has admitted that upgrading the bullpen is a priority this offseason. One specific name on their list of targets is Pete Fairbanks, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Snakes have engaged in discussions with the right-hander.

The relief market has been the hottest section of the offseason so far and Fairbanks has been a popular part of it. Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton, Raisel Iglesias, Emilio Pagán and other relievers have already come off the board. Fairbanks is still out there but he has been connected to the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Marlins and Tigers, with the Diamondbacks now added to the list. Presumably, there are several other clubs on that list who have not been publicly named.

There are likely varying opinions on what Fairbanks can provide going forward. A few years ago, his results were elite but he was often injury prone. More recently, he has been healthier but less dominant. From 2020 to 2023, he posted a 2.66 earned run average. His 10.1% walk rate was a bit high but he struck out 34.8% of batters faced and got grounders on 46.9% of balls in play.

Over the past two seasons, he has still posted a strong 3.15 ERA and his walk rate improved to 8.2%. His 60 1/3 innings pitched in 2025 were a career high by 15 frames. However, he only punched out 24% of batters faced over the 2024 and 2025 seasons. That’s slightly above average but a big drop from his previous campaigns. He averaged 97.3 miles per hour on his fastball in each of the past two seasons. That’s still good zip but he averaged 99 mph in 2022.

Fairbanks is clearly still capable of good results but he’s about to turn 32 years old and there’s enough uncertainty to have impacted his market. The Rays could have retained him for 2026 via an $11MM club option but they instead opted for the $1MM buyout, sending him to free agency. Presumably, the Rays tried trading Fairbanks before making that call. Perhaps there were some teams willing to pay Fairbanks at that price but Tampa couldn’t find one willing to both pick up the option and also give them a meaningful trade return.

Now that Fairbanks is a free agent, he will cost only cash and has plenty of suitors. The Diamondbacks are a sensible one. Their bullpen fell apart in 2025. A.J. Puk and Justin Martínez were supposed to be the top two guys in the relief corps. Both required UCL surgery in the summer and other arms hit the injured list as well. Arizona relievers finished the year with a collective 4.82 ERA. The Nationals, Rockies and Angels were the only three big league teams who finished worse in that department.

Puk and Martínez could perhaps return in the summer of 2026 but the bullpen is clearly a weak spot for now. Fairbanks is presumably just one of many relievers the Snakes are pursuing. What’s unclear is how much spending capacity the club has.

Owner Ken Kendrick has said the payroll might drop a bit relative to 2025, but Hazen has downplayed how much that will impact his ability to build out the roster. RosterResource currently projects their 2026 payroll about $40MM shy of 2025. It’s unclear where they plan to end up, as they try to address needs in the rotation, bullpen and position player group.

Instead of free agency, they could try to deal with those needs via the trade market. Piecoro notes that the Snakes are open to trading young position players and/or prospects, including Jordan Lawlar.

Lawlar is an interesting case as he has been and still is one of the top prospects in the league. Teams normally cling tightly to those players but there are some signs suggesting the Snakes and Lawlar may be a special case. As a prospect, he has destroyed minor league pitching but hasn’t been able to carve out a big league role in Arizona. He climbed the minor league ladder as a shortstop but the Diamondbacks have Geraldo Perdomo locked in there and Ketel Marte at second. Until recently, third base was also blocked by the presence of Eugenio Suárez.

Lawlar hit so much in Triple-A to start 2025, slashing .336/.413/.579 in 37 games, that the Diamondbacks called him up anyway. But they didn’t find much playing time for him and optioned him back down a few weeks later. He then suffered a hamstring strain in June which sidelined him for weeks. Arizona traded Suárez to Seattle at the deadline but Lawlar was still recovering at that time.

He was eventually healthy enough to be recalled at the end of August, which could have finally been the big league runway he needed, but it didn’t play out as hoped. He committed several throwing errors from third base in the first half of September. In the latter half of the month, the club mostly used him as a pinch-hitter and designated hitter. It was reported about a month ago that the Diamondbacks would have him take center field reps in winter ball. Playing for Tigres del Licey in the Dominican Republic, he has logged 58 innings at short, 27 in center and nine at third while slashing .167/.217/.214 over 12 games.

Put it all together and it’s possible that the Snakes don’t have as tight a grip on Lawlar as maybe some other clubs would with a top prospect. He is still just 23 years old and could still be a star but he might make more sense for a rebuilding club who can afford to be patient with him and his defensive uncertainty. Since the Snakes have a number of needs on the roster and a bit of a payroll squeeze, perhaps they could use Lawlar in a trade to bring back some affordable big leaguers.

Being willing to make a trade doesn’t mean it’s going to happen or is even likely. With the Marte situation, Hazen has been clear that it’s his job to listen to offers but that doesn’t mean he’s likely to move his star second baseman. The situation with Lawlar is surely similar but he will be an interesting name to watch in the coming weeks and months as there are undoubtedly teams who would love to take a chance on him.

Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images

MLBTR Podcast: An Agent’s Perspective with B.B. Abbott – Also, Cease, Williams, Helsley, And Gray

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by B.B. Abbott of Wasserman Baseball to discuss…

  • Abbott’s approach to free agency (3:30)
  • The impact of the media on free agency (10:00)
  • The different levels of player involvement in free agency (17:00)
  • The decision to sign an extension instead of going to free agency (20:15)
  • Chris Sale and his extensions with the White Sox, Red Sox and Braves (23:00)
  • Byron Buxton and his extension with the Twins (28:50)
  • Representing young players going into the draft (32:10)
  • The general state of baseball (35:50)

Plus, Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors joins the show to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

  • Some “Classic Baseball Trades,” Nimmo For Semien, And Ward For Rodriguez – listen here
  • Offseason Preview Megapod: Top 50 Free Agents – listen here
  • Surprising Option Decisions, Qualifying Offers, And Paul DePodesta – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

Braves Sign Austin Pope To Minor League Deal

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The Braves have signed right-hander Austin Pope to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client has been assigned to Triple-A Gwinnett for now but will presumably receive an invite to big league spring training.

Pope, 27, joins a new organization for the first time in his career. The pontiff was drafted by the Diamondbacks back in 2019. He climbed the minor league ladder and got to make brief major league debut in 2025. He was added to the roster in the final week of the regular season and got to make one appearance. On September 25th, with the Snakes down 8-0 to the Dodgers, Pope tossed two scoreless innings of mop-up duty. He allowed two hits and a walk while striking out one.

The righty was outrighted off the roster at the end of the season and was able to elect free agency, which has allowed Atlanta to scoop him up. They are presumably placing stock in Pope’s minor league results. Over the past three years, he has thrown 160 1/3 innings in the minor leagues, mostly with the Triple-A Reno Aces. His 4.55 earned run average in that time isn’t especially impressive but the Aces play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His 9.4% walk rate in that time was pretty close to average while his 27.6% strikeout rate was quite strong.

Pope still has a full slate of option and just a handful of service days. If he gets added to Atlanta’s roster at any point, he can give the club a depth arm with roster flexibility and years of cheap control. For now, he can provide them papal depth without taking up a spot on the 40-man.

Photo courtesy of Rob Schumacher, Imagn Images

Guardians, Connor Brogdon Agree To Major League Deal

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The Guardians and right-hander Connor Brogdon have agreed to a major league deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Brogdon will make a salary of $900K next year, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic. The Guardians have 40-man vacancies and don’t need to make a corresponding move.

It’s a bit surprising to see Brogdon, 31 in January, secure himself a big league deal. He settled for a minor league deal with the Angels last winter. He was added to the roster a couple of times during the season, but was later passed through waivers in both instances. He tossed 47 innings for the Halos around those transactions, allowing 5.55 earned runs per nine.

Those were obviously not great results but the Guardians are presumably seeing something attractive under the hood. Brogdon’s 24.6% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate were both close to league average. His ERA was inflated because he allowed 11 home runs, almost doubling his previous career high of six. There are some ERA estimators which consider home run spikes to be fluky. Brogdon’s SIERA, for instance, was just 3.86 this year.

It’s also perhaps worth pointing out that Brogdon’s velocity came back. He averaged 95.5 miles per hour on his fastball in 2025. In 2024, he had battled plantar fasciitis and only tossed three big league innings. In that small sample of work, his fastball was down to 92.8 mph.

The Guardians presumably feel there’s a path to get Brogdon back to his previous results. From 2020 to 2022, then with the Phillies, Brogdon tossed 113 innings with a 3.42 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He earned three saves and 16 holds. He also tossed 8 2/3 postseason innings with a 2.08 ERA in 2022, as the Phils made it all the way to the World Series. His fastball velo was in the 95-96 mph range for those seasons.

In 2023, his results backed up. He posted a 4.03 ERA with a 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. His average fastball velo fell to 94.7 mph. The following year, he bounced to the Dodgers and battled the aforementioned plantar fasciitis situation. With the Angels in 2025, his results weren’t fully back but the velo and strikeouts were close to his best years in Philadelphia.

The Guards generally have pretty good bullpens and that was the case in 2025. Even though they lost Emmanuel Clase to a gambling investigation in July, the club’s relief corps still finished the season with a collective 3.44 ERA, third in the majors behind the Padres and Red Sox. Brogdon will jump into that mix as the Guards try to coax better results out of him than the Angels did in 2025.

Brogdon is out of options, meaning he can’t be sent to the minors without being exposed to waivers. If the Guards pass him through waivers at some point, he would have the right to elect free agency as a player with at least three years of service time. However, since he has less than five years of service, he would have to forfeit his remaining salary commitments in order to exercise that right.

The $900K salary isn’t that high, considering the MLB minimum will be $780K next year. However, it is perhaps enough to dissuade other teams from claiming Brogdon. It’s also very unlikely Brogdon choose to leave that money on the table. Perhaps the Guardians are planning on having Brogdon in Triple-A as non-roster depth at some point in the future. If he is holding a roster spot at the end of the 2026 season, he can be retained via arbitration for 2027.

Photo courtesy of Ed Szczepanski, Imagn Images

Latest On Center Field Market

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The center field market appears to have lots of demand. The Phillies, Mets, Rays, Orioles, Diamondbacks and Royals are all looking for upgrades at the position, according to reporting from Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic.

Those teams all make logical sense. The Phillies acquired Harrison Bader at the deadline but lost him to free agency a few months later. The Mets did the same thing with Cedric Mullins, who was terrible for them. The Rays had a rotating cast of characters in the outfield in 2025 and are known to be looking for upgrades. The Orioles traded Mullins and then trotted out Colton Cowser, who struggled while playing through broken ribs. The Diamondbacks have been waiting for Alek Thomas to break out for a few years now. The Royals have been struggling to get good production from the grass for a few seasons and are looking for upgrades.

That demand might outpace the supply. The free agent market doesn’t have a standout option. Trent Grisham would have been the headliner but he accepted a qualifying offer to return to the Yankees. Cody Bellinger is out there but he’s more of a corner guy who can play some center, as opposed to an everyday solution. Bader is available and coming off a nice season at the plate but that was fuelled by a .359 batting average on balls in play. Mullins, as mentioned, is coming off a dreadful campaign.

On the trade market, Luis Robert Jr. is available but he’s coming off two straight poor seasons. The Astros are open to moving Jake Meyers for pitching help but Meyers has generally been a light-hitting, glove-first type in his career. Perhaps the Rockies would be open to moving Brenton Doyle but he’s still controlled for four more seasons and it would be a sell-low move for Colorado after his poor 2025 campaign.

The Red Sox might be willing to move Jarren Duran to clear their outfield logjam but Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan report that the Sox are looking for a return commensurate with his excellent 2024 season as opposed to his 2025 results. Duran’s combination of offense, defense and speed led to FanGraphs crediting him with 6.8 wins above replacement in 2024. Baseball Reference was even more bullish, giving him 8.7 WAR. He regressed a bit in 2025 and ended up at 3.9 fWAR and 4.7 bWAR. He’ll make $7.7MM in 2026 and can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons after that.

If the Sox don’t want to sell low on Duran and no one is meeting their asking price, then perhaps he’ll stay in Boston. It does feel like they have to move someone, however. Their outfield mix currently projects to include Duran, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida and Jhostynxon Garcia. Anthony and Rafaela feel locked in because they have both signed extensions. Rafaela can also play second base but is the best defensive center fielder of the bunch.

Another theoretical trade option is Byron Buxton of the Twins. His contract gives him full no-trade protection through 2026, though it then drops to just a five-team no-trade list for the final two years of the deal. In the lead up to the 2025 deadline, as the Twins sold off a number of controllable relievers and sent infielder Carlos Correa back to Houston, Buxton repeatedly said he wasn’t interested in waiving that clause and wanted to remain a Twin for life.

That stance appears to have softened lately. Reporting last month from Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggested that Buxton would become more open to waiving his clause if the Twins continued tearing down the roster, perhaps by trading Joe Ryan or Pablo López. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey pushed back on the notion that the Twins would be making more sell-side moves but they also haven’t done much this winter to tip the scales either way.

McDaniel and Passan, linked above, say that Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause. It’s unclear if they mean that in the same way as Hayes, where it’s conditional on the Twins going down the rebuild road. Presumably, if Buxton is asked to waive his clause at some point, that would be part of a rebuild regardless.

Buxton is an incredibly talented player who has dealt with a lot of injury issues. His career high in games played in 140, which was back in 2017. From 2018 to 2023, he never topped 92 contests in any one season. He got to 102 in 2024 and 126 this year. When on the field, the quality has been great. He just wrapped up a season in which he hit 35 home runs and stole 24 bases. He slashed .264/.327/.551 and was credited with 5.0 fWAR.

His unique contract reflects that uncertainty. He is being paid $15MM annually, a decent sum but about half of what most superstars get. However, he can make millions more based on plate appearances and MVP voting. For the Twins, or a theoretical team rostering him in the future, they’d be happy to pay him the extra since that means he’s on the field and producing. Buxton would surely garner lots of interest if the Twins made him available but it’s still not clear if the club will go down that road.

Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images

Blue Jays Sign Dylan Cease To Seven-Year Deal

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December 3rd: The full breakdown is provided by Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Cease gets a $23MM signing bonus and then a $22MM salary in 2026. His salary then jumps to $30MM in 2027 and falls by $1MM in each subsequent season. $10MM of his 2026 salary is deferred followed by $9MM in each season after that. The deal also contains awards bonuses and a limited no-trade clause.

December 2nd: The Jays made it official today, announcing they have signed Cease to a seven-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the MLBPA values the contract at roughly $184.6MM after adjusting for the deferred money.

November 26th: The Blue Jays are making a major splash at the top of the rotation. Toronto is in agreement with Dylan Cease on a seven-year contract, pending a physical. It’s reportedly a $210MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client, though it includes deferred money that’ll drop the average annual value for luxury tax purposes to roughly $26MM. That puts the net present value closer to $182MM.

Even after adjusting for deferrals, it’s the largest free agent signing in franchise history. Though the Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension earlier this year, they’d never gone beyond George Springer’s six-year, $150MM deal on the open market.

Cease, 30 next month, entered free agency as a test case of how much modern front offices care about earned run average. In two of the past three seasons, his ERA has jumped to the mid-4.00s, including a 4.55 mark in 2025. However, in just about every other respect, he has been great. He has been incredibly durable. His control isn’t amazing but he has racked up strikeouts. He has kept his fastball velocity in the upper 90s, while also featuring a slider, knuckle curve and changeup.

Though Cease debuted back in 2019, he has actually never been on the major league injured list, apart from a very brief stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season and has taken the ball at least 32 times in each full season since. In total, he’s made 174 starts since the start of 2020, which leads all major league pitchers. He generally doesn’t pitch deep into games, however, so he’s ninth in that span in terms of innings.

On top of the quantity, the quality has been strong. For that same 2020-25 span, he posted a 3.88 ERA. His 9.9% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he punched out 28.9% of batters faced with a 14.4% swinging strike rate.

As mentioned, his ERA has wobbled in recent years, but it has done so while other elements of his game have stayed more consistent. He actually saw his ERA drop to 2.20 in 2022. With the White Sox at that time, he finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander. His ERA then shot up to 4.58 in 2023, dropped to 3.47 in 2024 and then climbed back up to 4.55 this year.

But during those ups and downs, his strikeout and walk rates have been less volatile. His strikeout rate did drop from 30.4% in 2022 to 27.3%, but then it climbed to 29.4% and 29.8% in the two most recent campaigns. His 10.4% walk rate in 2022 decreased to 10.1% and 8.5% in the next two years, followed by a slight uptick to 9.8% in 2025.

His batting average on balls in play, which tends to be a bit more luck based, has synched up more with his ERA shifts. A standard BABIP is usually around .290 but Cease was down at .260 in that 2022 season. It then swung the other way to .330 in 2023 as Cease’s ERA climbed, then went to .263 and .320 in the two most recent seasons as his ERA dipped and climbed again.

As such, ERA estimators have considered Cease to be far more steady than his actual ERA. His FIP has been between 3.10 and 3.72 for the past four years. His SIERA was at 3.48 in 2022, jumped a bit to 4.10 in 2023, and then has been at 3.46 and 3.58 in 2024 and 2025.

As we were deliberating our Top 50 Free Agents post at MLBTR, we had many debates about whether the inconsistent ERA would hurt his earning power, perhaps leading him to accept a short-term deal with opt-outs, or if teams would overlook the ERA and sign him based on his consistency in other areas. In the end, we opted for latter, predicting a seven-year, $189MM deal. Cease has surpassed that in terms of sticker price, though the deferrals will seemingly put the net present value closer just below that projection.

The Blue Jays are coming off their best season in years, as they charged all the way to Game Seven of the World Series, ultimately falling to the Dodgers in extra innings. However, the season ended with plenty of rotation uncertainty. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer became free agents. Shane Bieber had a $16MM player option he seemed likely to decline. In the long term, Kevin Gausman is a free agent after 2026. José Berríos has an opt-out in his deal after the upcoming campaign.

In the past few weeks and months, the long-term outlook has improved considerably. Trey Yesavage came up late in the year and was immediately able to get hitters out, quickly establishing himself as a rotation building block. Bieber surprisingly decided to trigger his player option and stick with the Jays for one more year. Now Cease is in the fold for the long run.

That gives the Jays a rotation of Gausman, Cease, Yesavage, Bieber and Berríos going into 2026, with guys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis also in the mix. Though Bieber and Gausman are slated to depart after the upcoming campaign, with Berríos potentially joining them, Cease can serve as a bridge to another era. By then, it’s possible Jake Bloss has recovered from his Tommy John surgery and is back in the mix. Prospects like Gage Stanifer and Johnny King might have climbed into the picture by then as well.

Toronto is paying a significant cost to lock Cease in as a long-term anchor. RosterResource projected their 2026 payroll around $232MM, while their luxury tax number was right around the $244MM base threshold. It won’t be clear how much either number goes up until the payment and deferral structure is reported. The CBT number is based on the contract’s average annual value, so the salary breakdown doesn’t matter for tax purposes, but the deferrals reduce the contract’s actual value by around $4MM annually.

In any case, the Jays are clearly going to pay the tax in 2026, and this will push them beyond the $264MM first surcharge tier. They’re into CBT territory for a second consecutive season, meaning they’re taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages. They’ll pay a 42% tax on spending between $264MM and $284MM, 75% for spending between $284MM and $304MM, and a 90% rate on any further spending. The Cease deal itself comes with roughly $8.5MM in taxes, but the penalties will get higher with any more significant additions.

The Jays almost certainly aren’t done. They’ve been loosely linked to Kyle Tucker and have interest in re-signing Bo Bichette. It seems fair to assume they won’t sign all three of this offseason’s top free agents, but a Bichette reunion could still be in play. They’ve also been linked to late-inning bullpen help, ideally a proven closer who’d push Jeff Hoffman into a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.

Cease rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Jays are hit with the highest penalty to sign a qualified free agent because they paid the competitive balance tax this year. They’ll surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft plus $1MM from their international bonus pool in 2027. San Diego also paid the luxury tax this year, so they’re entitled to the lowest form of compensation: a selection after the fourth round next summer. They’ll get another of those if/when Michael King signs elsewhere.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Blue Jays and Cease were in agreement on a seven-year, $210MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the presence of deferrals, while Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported the approximate $26MM AAV.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

Giants Sign Sam Hentges

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December 3rd: The Giants officially announced the Hentges signing today.

November 27th: The Giants and left-hander Sam Hentges have agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.4MM, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Giants have an open 40-man spot and won’t need to make a corresponding move when the deal becomes official. The southpaw is represented by Warner Sports Management.

It’s a buy-low wild card move for the Giants. Hentges was a solid bullpen piece for the Guardians a few years ago but he hasn’t been healthy for a while. Over the 2022 and 2023 campaigns, Hentges tossed 114 1/3 innings for Cleveland, allowing 2.91 earned runs per nine. His 7.9% walk rate was just barely better than average while his 27.4% strikeout rate and 60.1% ground ball rate were both very strong. He gradually moved up to high leverage work, earning 23 holds over that span.

In 2024, he kept things going for a while, posting a 3.04 ERA over another 23 2/3 innings. However, he hit the injured list in July due to some inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He required surgery in September, a procedure which came with a recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months.

Though he was likely to going miss most or all of 2025, the Guards still kept him around. He was still under club control through 2027, so there was still a potential long-term payoff. He had qualified for arbitration ahead of 2024 as a Super Two player and made $1.1625MM in his first of four arb seasons. The Guards gave him a slight bump to $1.337MM in 2025. Even if he couldn’t manage a late-season return to health, he would still have two further seasons of control.

In 2025, not only did he not make it back to the majors, but he didn’t even begin a rehab assignment. In September, he underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. That procedure comes with a recovery timeline of three to four months. That means he should be healthy by the spring but the Guards decided to move on. They non-tendered Hentges last week, sending him to free agency.

The Giants have swooped in and will sign Hentges, giving him a slight raise over last year, even though he missed the whole season. San Francisco non-tendered Joey Lucchesi last week but currently has Erik Miller, Matt Gage and Reiver Sanmartin as lefties in their bullpen. Hentges is obviously a big unknown, having missed a season and a half at this point. But if he can get back to health, he could be the best southpaw in the bunch.

If he does get back on track, he would be a bargain at a salary barely above the league minimum, which will be $780K next year. He is out of options but could be retained via arbitration for the 2027 season if things go especially well next year.

Photo courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images

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