Reds Acquire Kemp, Puig & Wood From Dodgers For Homer Bailey, Prospects
The Dodgers and Reds have announced a long-rumored blockbuster that will shift around a variety of notable players. Veterans Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood are all heading to Cincinnati, along with catcher/infielder Kyle Farmer and $7MM. Meanwhile, righty Homer Bailey is going to Los Angeles, accompanied by young righty Josiah Gray and infielder Jeter Downs.
Financial factors obviously weigh heavily here. Kemp is earning $21.5MM in the final year of his contract, while Bailey is earning $23MM — in addition to a $5MM buyout on his 2020 mutual option. Bailey, though, only represents a $17.5MM hit for luxury tax purposes, while Kemp is a $20MM CBT piece. The Dodgers’ cash and luxury tax savings are boosted yet further by moving Puig and Wood, though certainly both of those players are positive-value assets, even as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project that Puig will earn $11.3MM while Wood will end up with a $9.0MM salary. Net it all out, and it seems that the Dodgers will take on $28MM in new obligations, plus the $7MM they’re covering of the old ones, while sending approximately $42MM to the Reds, who’ll end up taking on only ~$7MM in total new salary in the deal. In terms of the luxury tax, L.A. will trim its tabulation by around $16MM (as above, depending upon the final salaries for Wood and Puig), though obviously the actual tax savings will only be a percentage of that amount.*
Clearly, the Dodgers were willing to move on from a trio of useful, albeit expensive players in order to free up roster space and payroll flexibility while also picking up some worthwhile prospect assets. This is hardly the first deal of this kind from a Dodgers front office that is always working angles and contemplating large trade packages. Indeed, both Wood and Kemp came to the organization in other complex arrangements, the former as part of a 3-team, 13-player 2015 blockbuster and the latter in last winter’s tax-avoidance contract swap.
It’s hard not to look at this swap and think about what might be next for the Dodgers, who have now bumped two key corner outfield pieces from their ’19 plans. Clearly, the move opens the door to a potential run at Bryce Harper, though it hardly makes that anything approaching a certainty. Among other considerations, today’s move drops two of the club’s right-handed-hitting outfield pieces, moving lefties Alex Verdugo and Andrew Toles up the depth chart — for the time being, at least. Possibilities abound for the Dodgers, who’ll surely target both high-end assets and talented players who can function in more flexible roles as their winter continues to unfold.
On the Cincy side, the club certainly now has a better 2019 roster, though it’ll cost some near-term cash and (more importantly) some future value. Wood will slot into the rotation alongside the recently acquired Tanner Roark, who’s also a one-and-done asset. Puig and Kemp will presumably both enter the outfield mix along with left-handed hitters Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker.
Certainly, both Puig and Kemp will boost the Reds’ position-player unit. The former is a quality defender who has produced at about twenty percent above the league average rate at the plate over the past two years. In 444 plate appearances last year, he turned in a .267/.327/.494 slash with 23 long balls and 15 steals. Kemp cooled off after a momentous rebound to begin his second stint in Los Angeles, but still turned in 506 plate appearances of .290/.338/.481 hitting with 21 dingers over the course of the season. Kemp is likelier than Puig to function in more of a platoon role; in addition to his poorly regarded glovework, he’s about six years Puig’s senior at 34 years of age.
While Puig and Kemp are the best-known names in this deal, though, it’s certainly arguable that Wood was the key pick-up from the Reds’ perspective. The southpaw, who’ll soon turn 28, has steadily produced high-quality results ever since breaking into the bigs in 2013. Last year, he worked to a 3.68 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 151 2/3 innings.
There’s good reason to think the Reds will get quality output from Wood. In over eight hundred total MLB frames, he carries a 3.29 ERA with a 3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, and 3.66 SIERA. Though Wood has long been dogged by questions about his long-term health, given his decidedly unorthodox motion, he has topped 150 frames in four of the past five campaigns.
Farmer, meanwhile, hasn’t done much in limited MLB opportunities. But he has hit well in the upper minors in recent campaigns and will at least function as a cheap catching depth asset for the Reds.
All told, it’s plenty of bang for the seven million bucks the Reds are taking on here. It’s hard to imagine the team could have done more with that amount of cash. Of course, the return is mostly tied up in single-season assets, and picking up those near-term pieces will mean the sacrifice of some potential long-term value.
Downs was generally considered one of the ten best prospects on the Cincinnati farm, after all, with Gray not far behind him. Both players are top recent draft picks — Downs went 32nd overall in 2017; Gray was plucked in the second round in the 2018 draft — who have shown quite well in their first professional opportunities. Downs turned in a .257/.351/.402 slash with 13 home runs and 37 steals over 524 plate appearances last year at the Class A level, while Gray threw 52 1/3 innings of 2.58 ERA ball, with 10.1 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9, in a dozen Rookie ball starts.
Bailey, meanwhile, is slated to function only as a vehicle for the rest of this deal. He’ll be cut loose by the Dodgers, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman confirms. Indeed, that seems to have been the reason he elected to waive his full no-trade rights. Bailey, who signed a big extension before the 2014 season that just did not work out for the Reds, has struggled since returning from a long bout with arm injuries. Presumably, he’ll be looking for a chance to compete in camp for a job with another organization.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links) first reported that the deal was nearing finalization and had the key pieces. Bob Nightengale of USA Today added the prospects on Twitter. C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (on Twitter), Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) covered the remaining details.
*An earlier version of this post mistakenly tabulated the salaries to suggest the Dodgers were receiving, rather than sending, $7MM to the Reds. We regret the mistake.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
CC Sabathia Undergoes Angioplasty
Yankees southpaw CC Sabathia recently underwent an angioplasty and had a stent placed, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Thankfully, “his prognosis is excellent,” per the report.
Angioplasties are utilized to clear blockages in a coronary artery, with the stent functioning to maintain a clear path for blood flow. It’s an oft-performed surgery, but one that’s not commonly performed on professional athletes.
Fortunately, Sabathia is not expected to face any particular impediments to his baseball career. He’s slated to pitch for one more season after signing a one-year, $8MM deal to return to the Yankees for the 2019 campaign.
Given the outlook, there’s no real reason to think the Yankees’ plans for the winter will be altered. That said, Sabathia will have been sidelined from part of his offseason work and still needs to be cleared to resume full activities, so there’s a bit of uncertainty. On the other hand, the southpaw is said to be feeling better physically than he did before the procedure, which (per Rosenthal) “figures to benefit Sabathia in his cardiovascular work.”
Angels Claim Parker Bridwell
The Angels have re-claimed righty Parker Bridwell from the Yankees, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter link). He had previously been lost on waivers to the Yanks, who later exposed him to waivers themselves.
Bridwell, 27, had a surprisingly effective 2017 run with the Halos but fell back hard in the following season. He only threw 34 2/3 innings at all levels in the 2018 season, with abysmal results when he was available. Bridwell’s forgettable season ended with surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow.
Clearly, the Angels still believe there’s hope that Bridwell can get back to where he was in the 2017 season. While his peripherals had suggested cause for skepticism, Bridwell’s overall track record suggests he’s at least least a worthwhile depth piece.
The Angels, like all teams, are understandably interested in ensuring they have enough innings on hand. But they’ll need to carry Bridwell on the active roster to open the season or again expose him to waivers, since he’s out of options.
Angels Sign Trevor Cahill
The Angels have added their second starting pitcher of the week, announcing on Thursday that they’ve signed righty Trevor Cahill to a one-year contract for the 2019 season. Cahill, a client of John Boggs & Associates, will reportedly earn a $9MM base salary and can secure an additional $1.5MM via an incentives package. Specifically, the deal is said to pay him $250K for reaching each of 100, 110, 120 and 130 innings, and he’d notch another $500K upon reaching 170 innings. He’d also reportedly land a $250K assignment bonus in the event that he’s traded.
Cahill will now join the also recently signed Matt Harvey as a rental starter in Anaheim. That seems to be a good outcome for the team, which will promise the pair a combined $20MM without extending its obligations past the 2019 season.
Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that both Cahill and Harvey would command two-year, $22MM contracts. While the early returns on the rotation market were relatively promising, the more recent market markers have been suboptimal from the players’ perspective, with several hurlers securing less years than might have been anticipated.
Cahill, who’ll open the 2019 season at 31 years of age, has certainly not been the steadiest option in recent years, but he has shown some fascinating skills. Since returning to the rotation following a bounceback 2016 in a relief capacity, Cahill has struck out nearly a batter per inning while drawing grounders near his career 55.0% rate.
Outside of some late-’17 struggles, Cahill has been quite productive of late. He ended up giving the A’s 110 innings of 3.76 ERA ball last year, with peripherals to match — including a career-high 11.7% swinging-strike rate. Of course, DL stints again left cause for concern, which surely hurt Cahill’s bid for multiple seasons in free agency.
It’s certainly possible to look at the Angels rotation mix now and imagine a solid, cost-efficient unit. Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs both showed well last year, while Jaime Barria and Felix Pena established themselves as solid options as well. Nick Tropeano is still around and will hope for a bounce back after some struggles upon returning from Tommy John surgery. JC Ramirez could return from the same procedure at some point. Luke Farrell, Miguel Almonte, and Dillon Peters represent depth pieces.
That said, it’s tough to see that as a high-grade unit even in the most optimistic of scenarios. And all of the team’s most-accomplished starters come with major recent health issues, including the two newest acquisitions. In a sense, it’s a continuation of last year’s approach of hoping to get enough innings from enough worthwhile pitchers to add up to a quality overall staff. It didn’t really work out in the aggregate. And now the highest-upside pieces are gone, with Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker out of the organization and Shohei Ohtani getting comfortable with a new ulnar collateral ligament.
The Halos reportedly pursued more notable targets, reportedly falling short in bids for both Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi earlier this winter. It’s still possible the club will continue angling for other arms, with Dallas Keuchel available in free agency and a few potential notable trade candidates, but it could also be that the club is now done with its rotation-building efforts. If that’s the case, then perhaps GM Billy Eppler will turn to other avenues to improve. The bullpen, catching unit, and position-player bench mix could all stand to be improved. Perhaps it’s not out of the question to imagine a surprise run at a high-level bat, though we’ve seen no real indication of that to this point.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the agreement and the terms (via Twitter). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Jon Heyman of Fancred added details on the incentives and assignment bonus (Twitter links).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Padres Designate Clayton Richard For Assignment
The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve designated southpaw Clayton Richard for assignment, which will clear a spot on the 40-man roster for veteran second baseman Ian Kinsler, whose previously reported two-year contract with San Diego has now been formally announced.
Richard, 35, inked a similarly affordable two-year pact with the Friars prior to the completion of the 2017 season — jumping at the opportunity to guarantee himself multiple years as opposed to exploring the open market in his mid 30s. Richard received that two-year reward at the tail end of a season in which he proved a durable ground-ball machine, pitching 197 1/3 innings of 4.79 ERA ball that came with more promising peripherals. That season, Richard averaged 6.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and 1.09 HR/9 to go along with a gaudy 59.2 percent ground-ball rate. Fielding-independent pitching metrics such as FIP (4.26), xFIP (3.76) and SIERA (4.06) all graded him out much more favorably than his ERA.
The 2018 version of Richard wasn’t all that different in terms of K/BB and ground-ball tendencies, and his home run rate was a mirror image of that 2017 rate. Richard, though, did take a slight step back in terms of strikeouts, control and grounders, though, and because his contact-oriented approach leaves little margin for error, his ERA jumped to 5.33 in 158 2/3 innings. Fielding-independent metrics still liked Richard better than his ugly ERA, but there’s no denying that his 2018 performance was diminished across the board.
More troubling Richard’s outlook is the fact that his season was preempted in August when he went under the knife to alleviate left knee troubles that had plagued him since early in the season. While there’s no indication that Richard is expected to miss significant time in 2019 as a result of the operation, the procedure nonetheless further casts doubt on his ability to function as a stabilizing innings eater moving forward.
San Diego will be on the hook for a $3MM salary for Richard in the coming season unless the organization is able to find a trade partner or Richard is claimed on waivers. The latter scenario seems particularly unlikely, given that $3MM commitment, as an interested team could simply opt to let Richard clear waivers, take his release, and then sign for the league minimum of $555K. If Richard does land with a new team, the Padres will be off the hook for the pro-rated portion of that $555K for any time Richard spends at the big league level.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Kluber, Angels, Reliever Market
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Phillies To Sign Shane Robinson
The Phillies have agreed to a minor-league deal with veteran outfielder Shane Robinson, according to the latest minor transactions from Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Terms of the arrangement are not known.
Robinson, 34, has appeared in nine MLB campaigns, though he has never yet reached 200 plate appearances in a single season. In total, he carries a modest .221/.288/.292 slash over 849 plate appearances.
Clearly, that’s not going to get the job done, but Robinson has nevertheless found opportunity owing to his well-regarded work in the field and on the bases. It’s fair to note, too, that he has at least shown himself to a be a competent batsman at the Triple-A level, where he owns a .279/.336/.382 line in parts of nine seasons of work.
Rangers, Derek Holland Discussing Possible Reunion
The Rangers are discussing a reunion with free agent lefty Derek Holland, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The hurler is said to be “intrigued” at the possibility of returning to his original professional organization.
Holland’s time with the Rangers came to a disappointing end after the 2016 season. He had battled through injuries but not proven capable of recapturing his former promise, leading the club to decline an option and bring an end to the extension he had signed just before the 2012 campaign.
That looked like a wise call after Holland’s forgettable 2017 showing with the White Sox, which left him sifting through minor-league offers in the ensuing winter. Holland wisely settled on a match with the Giants, who had ample and early opportunity on offer.
As it turned out, Holland would turn in more productive innings tan he had since way back in 2013, which stands as his most successful season in the bigs. The lefty worked to a 3.57 ERA in 171 1/3 innings in San Francisco, with a career-high 8.9 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9.
Now 32, Holland is certain to draw MLB offers from multiple teams. He showed an ability to function as both a starter and reliever while sitting at a 10.1% swinging-strike rate that’s near his career peak. As Grant points out, the veteran hurler was outstanding against same-handed hitters, who managed only a .164/.252/.189 batting line against him, so there’d certainly be some intriguing possibilities even if Holland is not utilized as a rotation piece.
MLBTR predicted that Holland would secure a two-year, $15MM deal, though it’s worth noting that some other similarly situated starters have failed to secure second seasons of guaranteed money. Of course, the Rangers themselves somewhat surprisingly promised a third year to Lance Lynn, who was recently added to the staff. The nature and degree of the club’s interest in Holland may well depend upon the outcome of its recent talks surrounding fellow southpaw Mike Minor.
Joe Smith Undergoes Surgery For Torn Achilles Tendon
The Astros announced today that righty Joe Smith has undergone surgery for a ruptured Achilles tendon in his left leg. (H/t Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, via Twitter.) It will sideline him for an estimated six-to-eight month stretch, putting a large chunk of his 2019 season in jeopardy.
Needless to say, that’s most unwelcome news for both player and team. Smith, 34, is said to have suffered the injury in a recent workout. The 34-year-old is slated to earn $8MM for the 2019 campaign, his second in Houston since signing a two-year deal last winter.
Smith, a crafty sidearmer who has held opposing right-handed batters to an anemic .215/.280/.311 batting line over his dozen MLB campaigns, would surely have been a part of the ‘Stros pen again in 2019. Last year, he worked to a 3.74 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. He was tough to square up, as usual, but did allow nearly 1.4 homers per nine — about twice his career average.
Of course, it’s only fair to note that the organization will have a bevy of alternatives, particularly if it makes some rotation additions that bump other players into relief contention. Smith, in fact, was not much of a factor in the club’s postseason mix, cracking the roster but making just one appearance (which did not go well). Still, he’s a quality veteran performer and it always hurts to carry a salary commitment that doesn’t provide production. The Astros will have to hope that Smith is able to recover relatively quickly and provide a mid-season boost.
MLBTR Poll: Likeliest Landing Spot For Manny Machado
Star infielder Manny Machado is rolling into Philly today after previous stops in Chicago and New York. That’s the extent of his 2018-19 winter tour, so far as is known, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t keen interest. The White Sox seem inclined to make a splash, the Yankees are squared up against some other powerful teams in the AL, and the Phillies face lofty expectations. Plus, there’s ongoing chatter about a mystery team, though there are conflicting reports on that score.
As things stand today, what’s the likeliest landing spot for Machado? (Response order randomized. Link for app users.)
Likeliest Landing Spot For Manny Machado
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Yankees 43% (15,923)
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Phillies 28% (10,232)
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White Sox 15% (5,344)
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Mystery Team 14% (5,282)
Total votes: 36,781