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Reds Showing Interest In Nick Pivetta

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As starting pitchers continue to fly off the shelves, Nick Pivetta is one of the more established starters remaining on the open market. He’s already been linked to the Mets, and today the Reds have emerged as another suitor. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman reported earlier today that the Reds have checked in on Pivetta, implying their interest might have heightened after they missed out on trade target Garrett Crochet.

The Reds have already been active on the starting pitching market this offseason. They extended a qualifying offer to Nick Martinez in November, which he accepted. Not long after, they acquired Brady Singer from the Royals in exchange for Jonathan India. Along with young arms Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott, that gives the Reds five capable big league starters, in addition to top prospect Rhett Lowder. Nonetheless, it’s not hard to understand why president of baseball operations Nick Krall is still pursuing starting pitching.

Abbott and Lodolo both finished the 2024 season on the injured list. Greene came off the IL in time to make two short starts at the end of the year, but he was out from mid-August to late September. All three have shown promise when healthy, but none has pitched a full MLB season. The same is true of the veteran Martinez, who has played a hybrid starter-reliever role for most of his MLB career. If the Reds sign Pivetta, they’d be much better equipped to weather an injury to one of their starters. In a best-case scenario in which everyone is healthy on Opening Day, Martinez can pitch out of the bullpen while Lowder starts the year in the minors. If Lowder forces his way onto the Opening Day roster with a strong spring, new manager Terry Francona could be facing a logjam, but that would be a pretty good problem to have.

That said, it would be slightly surprising to see Cincinnati sign Pivetta given the numerous other areas of need for Krall to address. The Reds finished among the bottom half of teams in runs scored this past season. They ranked 21st in OPS and 26th in wRC+. They recently traded India, one of their better offensive players in 2024, and have not made any additions to the starting lineup. Considering they already have six contenders for five spots in next year’s rotation, one might think the Reds would put most of their remaining resources toward improving the offense. To that end, they have been linked to trade candidates such as Luis Robert Jr., Josh Naylor, and Lane Thomas.

Earlier this offseason, Reds chief operating officer and chief financial officer Doug Healy told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com that his team would “maintain payroll levels at or above 2024.” That’s a vague and noncommittal statement, but it does seem to imply that a major increase in payroll is unlikely. So, it’s fair to wonder if Reds ownership would be willing to spend what it takes to sign Pivetta and bolster the offense. After all, RosterResource estimates that their payroll for 2025 ($101MM) is already slightly higher than their final payroll from 2024 ($100MM).

Pivetta is most likely seeking a multi-year deal similar to those Luis Severino signed with the A’s (three years, $67MM) and Yusei Kikuchi signed with the Angels (three years, $63MM). Meanwhile, Thomas is projected to earn $8.3MM and Naylor $12MM in 2025. Robert will earn $15MM in the final guaranteed year of his contract. All three of those salaries are team-friendly figures; a similarly impactful position player would cost significantly more in free agency. Will Krall have the financial flexibility to offer Pivetta an AAV above $20MM and still acquire an impact bat?

Phillies Trade Rule 5 Pick Mike Vasil To Rays

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5:20 PM: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times notes that the trade between the Phillies and Rays could be for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

5:11 PM: Mike Vasil wasn’t with the Phillies for long. Soon after the Phillies selected the right-hander from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, they turned around and flipped him to the Rays for cash considerations. Both teams have confirmed the deal.

Once a promising draft prospect in high school, Vasil suffered an injury in his senior year. He ended up withdrawing himself from the 2018 draft and attended the University of Virginia instead. Unfortunately, his stock plummeted after a rough few years in college. The Mets ultimately took him in the eighth round of the 2021 draft. To make matters worse, his struggles have only continued in affiliated ball. Over 43 starts at Triple-A across the past two seasons, he has pitched to a 5.78 ERA and 5.42 FIP.

Nevertheless, the Rays evidently saw something they liked in the soon-to-be 25-year-old. Entering the 2024 season, The Athletic’s Keith Law described Vasil as “a league-average starter at his peak with the potential to eat some innings.” Similarly, the staff at Baseball America considered him “a high-probability starter who might fit at no. 4 or 5 in a rotation.” Of course, both of those observations came before his rough 2024 season (6.04 ERA, 5.75 FIP in 134 IP at Triple-A). Still, Vasil’s selection in the Rule 5 draft suggests the Rays see him as an arm that could eat major league innings in 2025. What’s more, the Rays are known to enjoy tinkering with pitchers’ arsenals, and Vasil’s wide array of pitches seems to have made him a particularly appealing target. According to Baseball Savant, Vasil threw six different pitches in 2024: a sinker, cutter, four-seam fastball, changeup, sweeper, and curveball.

Rays assistant GM Kevin Ibach praised Vasil’s versatility, telling Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, “There are a lot of different ways he can impact a 26-man roster, more so than just a traditional reliever.”

It’s possible the Rays and Phillies tentatively agreed to this swap before the draft. Then again, if the Phillies hadn’t picked Vasil, the Rays could have scooped him up themselves in the second round. The vast majority of teams pass in round two; this year, only the Braves made a second-round selection. Regardless, the Rays are presumably better able to imagine giving Vasil significant innings to pitch in 2025.  As a Rule 5 pick, he needs to stay on his new team’s 40-man roster (or the 60-day IL) all season. Otherwise, he has to be placed on waivers, and if he clears waivers, he must be offered back to his original club (the Mets).

If Vasil thrives in a Rays uniform, he wouldn’t be their first Rule 5 trade success. Two years ago, the Rays acquired Kevin Kelly from the Rockies for cash considerations shortly after Colorado selected him in the Rule 5 draft. Kelly has been one of Tampa Bay’s top relievers over the past two seasons, pitching to a 2.88 ERA and 3.34 SIERA in 125 appearances.

Padres Notes: Offseason Needs, Loáisiga, Payroll, Cease

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After a successful 2024 campaign that saw the Padres return to the postseason despite cutting payroll and trading Juan Soto, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is doubtlessly looking to improve his team over the winter. To that end, he told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell that he’s looking to address holes in the corner outfield, the starting rotation, and behind the dish. None of that is especially surprising considering some of the players the Padres lost to free agency this winter, namely left fielder Jurickson Profar, starter Martín Pérez, and catcher Kyle Higashioka. Moreover, starter Joe Musgrove will miss the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, leaving the rotation without much depth.

With that said, the Padres have not yet been linked to many free agents to fill those holes. They’re interested in starter Roki Sasaki (per ESPN), but at this point, so is just about everyone else. When it comes to catchers, they’re starting to run out of options, with Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen, and Gary Sánchez off the market and Carson Kelly nearing a deal with the Cubs. As for corner outfielders, the Padres haven’t been strongly connected to anyone yet; Preller told Cassavell he hasn’t closed the door on a reunion with Profar, but that’s pretty much it.

Similarly, the Padres have expressed some interest in bringing back Ha-Seong Kim, although the infield seems to be less of a priority. After all, the team already has an internal option to replace Kim at the keystone: Jake Cronenworth can play more often at second base and Luis Arraez can play more often at first.

Bolstering the bullpen isn’t at the top of Preller’s to-do list either, but ESPN’s Jorge Castillo recently included the Padres on a list of suitors for right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga. While the Padres lost Tanner Scott to free agency, they still have a pair of imposing back-end relievers in Robert Suarez and Jason Adam. Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon also enjoyed strong breakout seasons in 2024, while Yuki Matsui was solid in his first taste of MLB action. Even so, there’s no such thing as too much bullpen talent, and Loáisiga is the kind of high-upside arm it can’t hurt to check in on. Due to numerous arm injuries over the past three years (most recently a torn UCL), he’s unlikely to sign for multiple years or much money. However, he was dominant the last time he was healthy in 2021, tossing 70 2/3 innings with a 2.17 ERA. He flashed a 98 mph sinker and nasty sweeping curveball in a handful of outings earlier this year, and it’s possible he’ll be back from his internal brace procedure in time for Opening Day.

So, why might the Padres be particularly interested in a buy-low free agent like Loáisiga? Perhaps it’s the same reason they haven’t linked to many other free agents, even at areas of greater need. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that San Diego’s payroll will likely fall somewhere in between last year’s final tally of $169MM and the current RosterResource estimate of $210MM for 2025. In other words, Preller might need to get some cash off the books before can start spending.

One idea to help the Padres reduce payroll that’s recently been picking up steam is trading Dylan Cease. According to Acee, they have indeed discussed the idea with other teams at the Winter Meetings. It’s not clear how serious those discussions are; some of Acee’s sources suggest the Padres are actively shopping the right-hander, while others suggest they’re merely open to offers.

Needless to say, Cease isn’t a player most contending teams would consider trading. According to FanGraphs, he was worth 4.8 WAR in 2024 and 17.2 WAR over the past four seasons. That’s not the kind of production that’s easy to replace at any price, let alone his $13.7MM projected salary. That said, this wouldn’t be the first time Preller has traded a star player while remaining competitive. Perhaps he’s confident the Padres will land Sasaki. Alternatively, he could be planning to trade for Garrett Crochet; the Padres have been linked to the White Sox ace. Those might be the only two options for San Diego to replace a top-of-the-rotation pitcher like Cease at a lower salary.

Indeed, without Sasaki or Crochet, it’s hard to imagine how trading Cease wouldn’t set the Padres back. After all, Preller himself said that adding a starting pitcher was a priority this offseason. Beyond Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish, the Padres rotation is all question marks. Randy Vásquez struggled in his first season with San Diego, while Matt Waldron quickly slowed down after a hot start in 2024. Dealing Cease could help the Padres fill other holes on the roster, but without a frontline starter to take his place, such a move might just be one step forward and two steps back.

Rockies To Sign Thairo Estrada

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The Rockies have agreed to a one-year, $3.25MM contract with Thairo Estrada, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deal comes with a mutual option for 2026 or a $750K buyout. However, if either side declines the mutual option, the Rockies will still have the opportunity to retain Estrada via arbitration for one more year due to his Super Two status.

Estrada, 29 in February, began his career with the Yankees but broke out after a trade to the Giants in 2021. He carved out a role for himself in San Francisco with a league-average bat, above-average speed, valuable defensive versatility, and a plus glove at second base. Over 312 games from 2021-23, he slashed .266/.320/.416 with a 105 wRC+, 45 stolen bases, and 7.4 FanGraphs WAR.

Unfortunately, the 2024 season was rough for Estrada. He spent two separate stints on the injured list with a sprained wrist, and while he only missed a handful of weeks, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area notes that he was playing through injury throughout the season. It certainly showed in his numbers. Estrada still came up with 9 Outs Above Average at second base, but his offensive production was dreadful. Over 96 games, he slashed .217/.247/.343 with a 64 wRC+. Eventually, the Giants were no longer willing to keep him on the roster, sending him outright to Triple-A at the end of August. He elected free agency after the season.

Thomas Harding of MLB.com linked Estrada to Colorado last week, noting that the club was looking for a new second baseman. The Rockies are set with Ezequiel Tovar at shortstop and Ryan McMahon at third base, but they had a gap on the right side of the infield after non-tendering Brendan Rodgers earlier in the offseason. While they signed Kyle Farmer to a one-year, $3.25MM guarantee in November, Farmer is older and lacks Estrada’s upside. He’s better suited to a utility role, which is the role he’s played for most of his career.

Estrada also drew interest from the Yankees this offseason. Yet, in Colorado, he will get everyday playing time as he looks to rebuild his value. Eventually, he could have competition from top infield prospect Adael Amador, but Amador won’t turn 22 until April, and his aggressive call-up in 2024 proved he wasn’t ready for the majors. Indeed, he has yet to play a single game at Triple-A. If Amador continues to progress and Estrada bounces back, Estrada could become a valuable trade chip for the Rockies next winter.

Hanwha Eagles Sign Estevan Florial

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Outfielder Estevan Florial has agreed to a contract with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He had been outrighted by the Guardians earlier this summer and elected free agency at the end of the season.

Florial signed with the Yankees as an international free agent in 2015. He quickly began turning heads in the organization with his strong performance in the low minors. Entering the 2019 season, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and FanGraphs all ranked him as the number one prospect in the system. He was as toolsy as they come, with plus speed, big raw power, and a powerful throwing arm in center field.

Unfortunately, Florial never found a way to tap into all his potential at the highest level. Over parts of four seasons with the Yankees from 2020-23, he appeared in just 48 games, slashing .209/.313/.296 with a 75 wRC+. The Yankees traded him to the Guardians after the 2023 season, and he earned more playing time in Cleveland, appearing in 36 games for the Guardians in April and May. However, his results were just as poor. Over 111 trips to the plate, he put up a .173/.264/.367 batting line, good for an 80 wRC+. Cleveland designated him for assignment at the end of May, and he spent the rest of the season with the Triple-A Columbus Clippers.

Although Florial didn’t look any better with the Clippers than he did with the Guardians (.213 AVG, 83 wRC+), he has had success at Triple-A in the recent past. From 2022-23, he put up an impressive .283/.374/.523 slash-line over 202 games for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. In that time, he hit 43 home runs, stole 64 bases, and produced a 127 wRC+. It’s that level of performance the Eagles are surely hoping he’ll replicate in his first season in the KBO.

Rakuten Eagles Sign Spencer Howard, Miguel Yajure

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The Rakuten Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball have signed right-handed pitchers Spencer Howard and Miguel Yajure, the team announced. Both pitchers will presumably join the Eagles starting rotation. The 2025 season will be Howard’s first in NPB and Yajure’s second.

Howard, 28, was once a promising prospect in the Phillies organization but struggled to translate his minor league skills to the major league level. Over parts of five seasons with the Phillies, Rangers, Giants, and Guardians, he put up a 7.00 ERA in 144 innings of work. His underlying numbers, including a 4.77 SIERA, are better than his unsightly ERA, but no matter what statistics you look at, it’s clear Howard could not reliably retire MLB hitters. He has also struggled in the minors in recent years, putting up a 7.07 ERA and 6.20 FIP in 70 innings at Triple-A from 2022-24. Thus, the righty will look for a fresh start with the Eagles in 2025.

Yajure, 27 in May, made his MLB debut for the Yankees during the 2020 season. Over the next three years, he pitched 46 1/3 innings for the Yankees and Pirates, putting up a 7.58 ERA – even higher than Howard’s. His 5.37 SIERA was similarly poor, as was his low strikeout rate and high walk rate. If you include hit-by-pitches, he issued nearly as many free passes (32) as strikeouts (35). So, he set out in hopes of finding greener pastures across the pond last winter. Indeed, that’s exactly what he found. Yajure signed a one-year contract with the Yakult Swallows ahead of the 2024 season. With the Swallows, he pitched to a 3.34 ERA over 129 1/3 innings. A mid-3.00s ERA in NPB isn’t quite as impressive as it would be in MLB, but Yajure was a solid contributor for the Swallows, finishing second on the team in innings pitched. It was enough to convince the Eagles to give him a contract for 2025. He’ll look to build upon a solid first season in his sophomore NPB campaign.

Rangers Interested In Max Fried, A.J. Minter, Jonathan Loáisiga

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As the Rangers look to replace the many arms they lost to free agency this winter, three more targets have emerged: left-handed starter Max Fried, left-handed reliever A.J. Minter, and right-handed reliever Jonathan Loáisiga.

The news that Texas is interested in Fried comes from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. They confirm that re-signing Nathan Eovaldi remains the team’s primary goal but suggest the Rangers are considering Fried as one potential alternative. However, their interest seems to be casual, at least for now. After Corbin Burnes, Fried is arguably the top starting pitcher available in free agency. That means he’s going to command significantly more money than Eovaldi. Entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff predicted Fried would sign a six-year, $156MM deal; Eovaldi’s predicted contract was a two-year, $44MM pact. Thus, as the Rangers look to duck under the luxury tax threshold and continue to deal with TV revenue uncertainty, financial constraints could prevent them from signing any star free agents. In other words, it seems like the Rangers are keeping tabs on Fried, but a deal remains unlikely.

The bullpen is perhaps a bigger area of concern for Texas. The only four pitchers who threw more than 50 innings out of the Rangers bullpen in 2024 are all free agents: Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, and José Ureña. What’s more Josh Sborz is going to miss significant time again after undergoing shoulder surgery. President of baseball operations Chris Young has already made a couple of small additions, claiming Roansy Contreras off of waivers from the Angels and signing Luis Curvelo to a major league deal, but neither is the type of proven, high-leverage arm the Rangers desperately need. Ideally, the Rangers would be in the market for a bona fide closer like Tanner Scott or an All-Star talent like Jeff Hoffman. However, a lack of payroll flexibility could explain why they’re targeting a pair of bounce-back candidates instead.

Over the past five seasons, Minter has pitched to a 2.85 ERA and 3.04 SIERA in 243 innings of work for the Braves. While he only has 36 career saves, the southpaw has experience pitching late in games. He also has several years of playoff experience. In 25 postseason frames, he has a 2.88 ERA and 2.63 SIERA. The reason for hesitation when it comes to Minter, is that he spent two long stints on the injured list nursing a hip injury this past season. He ultimately needed surgery, and it’s not yet clear how soon he’ll be able to return. That said, a hip injury is far less worrisome than an arm-related issue, and Minter was highly durable from 2020-23. Only three relievers made more appearances in that time. Thus, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Minter is among the “most popular” left-handed relievers on the free agent market, linking him to the Braves, Cubs, and Rangers. He was also linked to the Blue Jays earlier this offseason.

Loáisiga has not been nearly as durable as Minter throughout his career, but the upside is appealing. He was one of the top relievers in the game in 2021, putting up a 2.17 ERA and 3.01 SIERA in 70 2/3 innings for the Yankees. Unfortunately, various arm injuries have gotten in his way ever since. He dealt with shoulder inflammation in 2022, bone spurs in his elbow in 2023, and, most recently, he underwent an internal brace procedure in April 2024. The rehab timeline for an internal brace procedure is typically 10-12 months, which means Loáisiga could be back to full strength in time for Opening Day. That being the case, it’s not hard to see why he has so many suitors, including the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, and now, according to Jorge Castillo of ESPN, the Padres and Rangers. While it’s been a long time since Loáisiga was a reliable big league reliever, it’s easy to dream about the upside of his 98 mph sinker and lethal curveball. So, it comes as little surprise that he is expected to sign a major league deal this winter (per Castillo).

Jonathan India, Michael Massey Willing To Play Left Field For Royals

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Jonathan India spent the vast majority of his tenure with the Reds playing second base. Michael Massey has also been a primary second baseman throughout his first three seasons with the Royals. Now that India and Massey both play for Kansas City, Royals manager Matt Quatraro will have to be creative to get them both in the lineup. That could involve some platooning (Massey bats left-handed and India bats righty) and each spending some time at DH, but Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic suggest a third possibility: the outfield. According to Rosenthal and Sammon, India and Massey are both willing to try their hands at left field next season.

India has never played a defensive position other than second base in his career. He prepared for a multi-positional role with the Reds in 2024 when it looked like the team would have a logjam in the infield, but Cincinnati’s infield depth quickly diminished, and India ended up playing more second base than he had in any season since his rookie campaign. Massey has a couple of additional positions on his defensive resume, but that’s little more than a technicality. He played one game at third base in his rookie season and one inning in center field earlier this year.

Although second base is the position they both know best, neither has ever graded out as a particularly valuable defender at the keystone. However, both were above-average hitters in 2024. India showed off excellent plate discipline (12.6% walk rate, 108 wRC+), while Massey made tons of contact and hit for above-average power (.190 ISO, 102 wRC+). So, one can see why the Royals would like to get their bats in the lineup, even if it’s not at their natural position. Rotating between India and Massey in the DH spot is one way to accomplish that, but it’s not the ideal solution. For one thing, the Royals presumably want to keep the DH spot open for Salvador Perez on days when Freddy Fermin is catching. Furthermore, general manager J.J. Picollo would surely like to maintain as much flexibility as possible as he continues to look for upgrades to the lineup. Having some DH reps to work with could help him land a more impactful bat.

Anne Rogers of MLB.com reported earlier today that the Royals are looking for another hitter who can play the infield and the outfield. Yet, if India or Massey (or both) could be that guy, perhaps Picollo can focus on landing the best possible bat rather than prioritizing defensive flexibility. This team could certainly use the offensive boost. While the Royals pitching staff led the team to the playoffs in 2024, their hitters ranked 13th in runs scored, 14th in OPS, and 20th in wRC+. Their only notable addition to the lineup so far has been India.

When it comes to further additions, Rosenthal and Sammon suggest the Royals would prefer a left-handed bat. They mention Josh Rojas and Adam Frazier as two possibilities on the free agent market. However, neither Rojas nor Frazier has been an above-average hitter over the last two years. Perhaps, then, the Royals are more likely to turn to the trade block for an upgrade. Previous reports have suggested they’re looking for a middle-of-the-order bat on the trade market, although it’s not clear to whom that might refer. Once again, the more flexibility this team can get from guys like India and Massey, the more potential targets they can pursue in a trade.

Cubs, Carson Kelly Nearing A Deal

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The Cubs are reportedly progressing toward a contract with free agent catcher Carson Kelly, according to both Robert Murray of FanSided and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers confirmed their reports, describing an agreement between the two sides as “close.” The Cubs have an open spot on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding move will be necessary before they finalize the deal.

Kelly, 30, is coming off a bounceback season with the Tigers and Rangers. Once a promising young catcher for the Diamondbacks, he fell out of favor in the organization with his poor performance at the plate in 2022 and ’23. They released him in August 2023 with close to $1MM remaining on his contract. The Tigers quickly scooped him up, and after the season, they picked up his $3.5MM option for 2024.

That proved to be the right decision. Kelly turned in a strong season at the plate and in the field, allowing the Tigers to flip him to the Rangers ahead of the trade deadline. While he didn’t play quite as well in Texas as he had in Detroit, he finished the season with a perfectly respectable batting line (.238/.313/.374, 99 wRC+) and strong defensive metrics. All told, he produced 1.8 FanGraphs WAR in just 91 games and 313 trips to the plate. For the sake of comparison, Cubs catchers combined for -0.1 fWAR this past season.

Chicago has struggled behind the dish since letting Willson Contreras walk after the 2022 campaign. In 2024, Cubs catchers ranked third-last in the NL in Fielding Run Value (per Baseball Savant) and second-last in OPS and wRC+. According to FanGraphs WAR, no NL club received less production from the catcher position. Needless to say, the front office is aware of these shortcomings. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer failed in his efforts to add a backstop at the trade deadline, but The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reported after the deadline that Hoyer would continue to pursue catching during the offseason.

Ideally, that would mean a starting-caliber catcher to usurp the incumbent Miguel Amaya. Sharma noted back in August that the Cubs see Amaya as a backup in the long run. Funnily enough, Amaya happened to hit quite well from the day that report came out to the end of the season (.770 OPS, 114 wRC+ in 34 games), but his career numbers speak much louder than that small sample size performance. He has a .657 OPS and 87 wRC+ in 170 career games. His defense has been passable, but not enough to make up for a well-below-average bat. All that to say, the Cubs needed an upgrade.

However, the market for free agent catchers moved quickly this offseason, to the point where Chicago’s options started to look slim. Kelly is one of the few catchers still available who should be an upgrade over Amaya. Indeed, Kelly might be the only everyday catcher left on the market, depending on how you feel about Yasmani Grandal and Elias Díaz (and how much you’re willing to stretch the definition of an “everyday” catcher). Kyle Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen, and Gary Sánchez are already off the board.

Matt Thaiss, who the Cubs acquired from the Angels earlier this offseason, is nothing more than another potential backup. With Kelly taking the majority of the reps behind the dish, Thaiss and Amaya will presumably compete for a bench role in 2025. Both are out of minor league options, so one will likely be traded or DFA’d at some point before Opening Day. Amaya has been the more productive player over the last two seasons, providing a similar level of offense and significantly better defense. However, Thaiss could have a leg up as a left-handed batter; Kelly bats right-handed, so the Cubs might like a lefty-batting backup. What’s more, the Cubs might prefer to DFA Amaya, who doesn’t have the necessary MLB service time to reject an outright assignment should he pass through waivers.

Cody Bellinger Generating Trade Interest, Seiya Suzuki Trade Less Likely

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Cody Bellinger is quickly becoming one of the most talked-about trade candidates of the offseason. Earlier this month, Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported that the Cubs were “determined” to trade one of Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic added further detail to that story today, noting that the team would prefer to part with Bellinger. Dealing Suzuki doesn’t seem like anything more than a backup plan in case no Bellinger trade comes together. 

Sharma goes on to mention that there “seems to be real interest” in Bellinger on the trade market, thus pouring cold water on the possibility of a Suzuki deal (at least for now). Indeed, Bellinger has already been linked to the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Yankees, and Astros this winter, and Sharma suggests that the market for Bellinger could heat up now that Juan Soto has signed with the Mets. It seems the Cubs have been shopping Bellinger as a second choice for teams that missed out on the lefty-batting superstar. Bellinger is no Soto, but he can provide above-average offense from the same side of the plate and a much better glove in the outfield. He may not be a perennial MVP contender, but he does have superstar upside, even if his 2019 MVP season is getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror.

As for Suzuki, it’s not hard to understand why the Cubs would prefer to hold onto the righty bat. He is set to make $19MM in each of the next two seasons, while Bellinger will make $27.5MM in 2025 and has a player option for $25MM in 2026. Trading Bellinger would free up more payroll space for the coming season and would free the Cubs of his player option; as the name suggests, player options are inherently player-friendly. Furthermore, Suzuki is coming off a stronger season than Bellinger. While Bellinger is a better defender and baserunner, Suzuki is a more reliable middle-of-the-order bat. Bellinger’s offense has been much less stable in recent years. Thus, Suzuki looks like a bargain at $19MM per year, while Bellinger presumably would have opted out of his contract this winter if he thought he could do better on the open market.

For all of those same reasons, Suzuki’s trade market would probably be more robust than Bellinger’s. However, it doesn’t seem as if the Cubs are necessarily trying to maximize their return. Rather, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might simply need to create more payroll flexibility to address areas of greater need on the roster. After all, the Cubs have no shortage of outfield and/or designated hitter types in the organization. That includes center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, left-fielder Ian Happ, and top prospects Kevin Alcántara, Matt Shaw, and Owen Caissie.

What the Cubs could use more of is pitching. After signing Matthew Boyd, they reportedly remain interested in adding another starter (per Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic). Over the past few days, the club has been linked to free agent Walker Buehler and trade candidates Jordan Montgomery and Garrett Crochet. As much as they could use another arm, however, the Cubs might not be willing to pay for another starter without first removing some money from the books. On a related note, Sharma says Chicago has also shown “some interest” in Jack Flaherty but only if his price tag is low enough.

In theory, the Cubs should be able to sign a top-end starting pitcher like Flaherty without trading Bellinger or Suzuki. Their estimated 2025 payroll currently sits around $185MM, according to RosterResource. That’s $43MM lower than last season’s final estimate. They’re also about $40MM under the first luxury tax threshold, which should give them plenty of wiggle room even if they’d like to get back under the tax in 2025. However, Chicago’s eagerness to shop Bellinger and reluctance to court Flaherty certainly suggest that Hoyer is working under payroll constraints as he looks to get the Cubs back to the playoffs for the first time in his tenure as president of baseball operations.

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