Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s baseball chat
Quick Hits: Howard, International Prospects, Smith, Pirates
A shortened 2020 season would make Spencer Howard a larger factor in the Phillies’ plans, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Since Howard threw only 71 minor league innings in 2019 due to shoulder problems and was shut down at midseason, the Phils were going to ease him back into action this year under an innings limit at both the minor league and (if all things progressed well) Major League levels. If the 2020 season ends up being something of an abbreviated sprint, however, the right-handed prospect could end up pitching for Philadelphia as early as the new Opening Day, working in a starting or relief role and still potentially not approaching an innings cap that Lauber estimates could be around 130 frames of work.
A few more items as we kick off Sunday…
- Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) looks at five prospects who are lined up to join Major League teams when the international signing window opens on July 2. The Padres, Brewers, Braves, Indians, and Rangers have already been respectively connected to each of the five youngsters, with Atlanta and Cleveland each prepared to give out bonuses in the $1MM range.
- Fraidel Liriano, another shortstop from the Dominican Republic, is expected to land the largest bonus of the quintet, as Badler writes that the Rangers will give Liriano around $1.5MM. Liriano could eventually wind up at third base or second base rather than shortstop, though some scouts were intrigued by his hitting potential, with Liriano’s “strong hands and quick wrists, producing whippy bat speed.”
- Twelve teams contacted Kevan Smith during the catcher’s free agent stint this winter, Smith tells John Perrotto of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, though he was surprised to be on the open market at all. The Angels non-tendered Smith rather than go through the arbitration process with him (MLBTR projected Smith to earn a $1.3MM salary in 2020), a decision that left Smith feeling “pretty stunned…I thought I was on solid footing there.” Smith ended up signing a minor league deal with the Rays after surveying his options, saying, “You start looking around and see what’s going to be your best opportunity and what team you’re most comfortable with. You pick and choose, and it comes down to who’s the most interested. I definitely felt the Rays wanted me to be here.” Playing in Tampa Bay also brings Smith to the East Coast and at least a bit closer to his home in Pennsylvania, though the Pittsburgh native said he didn’t hear from the Pirates this winter, despite the Bucs’ need for catching.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Rays, LeBlanc, Phillips, Orioles
Should the Red Sox reload or rebuild? The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham votes for the latter option, arguing that Chris Sale’s season-ending injury should inspire the Sox to “consider trading anybody outside of Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and Eduardo Rodriguez.” (Personally speaking, I’d also add Christian Vazquez and Andrew Benintendi to Abraham’s no-trade list.) Such a move may seem drastic, though the Red Sox already faced a tough battle to reach the playoffs in 2020 even with Sale, and that was assuming the left-hander was able to rebound from a down year in 2019. With building blocks like Bogaerts and Devers already in place and their luxury tax penalties reset to zero, Boston could look to get back into playoff contention as early as 2021 after trading veterans for the right young talent, and then adding some other higher-priced players in trades or free agency.
Some more from around the AL East…
- It all could be something of a moot point given the indeterminate delay to the 2020 season, though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looked at how the Rays’ roster was shaping up in the latter days of Spring Training. Bullpen-wise, Nick Anderson was looking like the favorite for the majority of save chances, while non-roster invitee Aaron Loup was working towards winning a roster spot, which would have required Tampa to clear a space on its 40-man roster. Kevan Smith and Chris Herrmann, two other veterans in camp on non-roster invites, had seemingly fallen behind Michael Perez in the backup catcher competition. Though the Rays were preparing to deploy five regular starting pitchers, Topkin notes that the Rays were still planning to use openers every once in a while, as a way of managing injuries or giving the regular starters a break if necessary.
- Thursday was the opt-out date in Wade LeBlanc’s minor league contract with the Orioles, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. We’re reaching the end of the 48-hour window for the club to put LeBlanc on its 40-man roster or release him, assuming some other arrangement hasn’t been made in the wake of the shutdown. Regardless, Kubatko feels LeBlanc is a lock to make the roster, and getting selected would guaranteed an $800K salary for LeBlanc in 2020.
- In another piece from Kubatko, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that no Orioles players are set to undergo any medical procedures. This includes right-hander Evan Phillips, who dealt with some soreness in his throwing elbow in early March and recently met with Dr. Neal ElAttrache for a second opinion about the issue.
Transaction Retrospection: Joe Mauer’s Extension
Though negotiations between J.T. Realmuto and the Phillies are currently on hold, the idea of a contract extension between the two sides has been gestating for months. As such, there has already been a lot of speculation about how a Realmuto deal (if one is reached) will shake up the pay scale of catcher contracts. The latest reports indicated that Realmuto was looking for an extension that would pay him more guaranteed money than Buster Posey’s eight-year, $159MM extension with the Giants, which is the second-biggest deal ever given to a catcher.
The largest catcher contract in history? That agreement came exactly ten years ago today, with the Twins making the official announcement a day later. Minnesota had inked Joe Mauer, its star player and local hero, to an eight-year, $184MM extension that covered the 2011-18 season. Not only was it was the largest deal ever signed by a catcher, but it was the fourth-largest contract in baseball history as of March 2010 — Mauer’s payday was topped only by Alex Rodriguez’s two mega-contracts with the Rangers and Yankees, and Derek Jeter’s ten-year, $189MM extension with New York.
Could Realmuto and his representatives try to top Mauer’s contract? Even before the coronavirus pandemic added an extra layer of uncertainty over baseball and the world at large, it didn’t seem overly likely, though Realmuto’s camp had some interest in topping Mauer’s $23MM average annual value. Like Mauer at the time of his extension, Realmuto is just a season away from free agency, but Realmuto recently turned 29 years old, while Mauer was only entering his age-27 season at time of his deal.
Plus, there’s also the fact that the Phillies would naturally be gunshy about signing a catcher to that large a contract given how things played out in Minnesota. Unfortunately for both Mauer and the Twins, the fairytale story of the St. Paul native staying with his hometown team and leading them to a World Series title didn’t come to pass, as 2011-18 was a lean period the franchise. After reaching the postseason six times between 2002-10, the Twins only had one playoff appearance and two winning seasons total over the course of Mauer’s extension.
That period also saw Mauer’s production decline, though some dropoff was inevitable given the high level of Mauer’s first seven MLB seasons. From 2004-10, only six players topped Mauer’s 34.2 fWAR, as he developed into one of baseball’s best all-around players. Those seven years saw Mauer hit .327/.407/.481 with 81 home runs over 3578 PA, while amassing a resume that includes four All-Star appearances, four Silver Slugger Awards, three Gold Gloves, three AL batting titles, and four top-eight finishes in AL MVP voting.
Mauer’s best season came directly before his extension, as he was named AL MVP after hitting .365/.444/.587 (leading the American League in all three categories) with 28 homers over 606 plate appearances. As per Fangraphs, Mauer’s 2009 was tied for the fifth-best season ever for a catcher in terms of fWAR, with 8.4.
These numbers add context to the extension and perhaps serve as a bit of a reminder — Joe Mauer was an awesome player in his prime. Just about any big-market team in the game would have happily given Mauer eight years and $184MM given the opportunity to extend him, and the fact that a smaller market club like the Twins also felt comfortable in taking the plunge speaks to Mauer’s value at the time.
Of course, the Twins faced unique pressure to retain Mauer given his roots, as the idea of a literal homegrown superstar leaving for another franchise would have been a particularly tough blow for Minnesota. It should be noted that the Twins’ extension with Mauer was met with near-unanimous praise from both their own fans and the baseball world in general, with many comparing Mauer to the likes of Tony Gwynn, George Brett, or Cal Ripken Jr. as a one-team star who would define a franchise for a generation. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney described the extension as “going to be viewed as a strong development for Major League Baseball, at a time when there are growing concerns about the disparity between teams like the Yankees and Red Sox, and teams that generate less revenue.”
A decade after the fact, that disparity certainly remains despite the large amount of new revenue (from TV contracts and online media) coming into the sport, as it still stands out as notable when a non-major market franchise makes a particularly big splurge to sign a free agent, acquire a big contract in a trade, or ink one of its own stars to an extension. In the latter case, teams have become more and more proactive about extending their players earlier in their careers, well before they get even a year away from free agency as Mauer did.
From 2011-18, Mauer still provided above-average (113 wRC+, 114 OPS+) production by hitting .290/.372/.405 over 4382 plate appearances. The problem was, however, that this production was less impressive coming from a first baseman than it would have been from a catcher. Minnesota shifted Mauer out from behind the plate after the 2013 season due to a number of concussions and knee problems, and Mauer never played catcher again until his very last game, when he caught a single pitch in the ninth inning before being substituted out.
Mauer’s contract made him a particular target for criticism during the Twins’ struggles in the 10’s, which was an unfair burden given that Minnesota’s issues had much more to do with a number of trades and signings during the decade that provided far less return than the Mauer extension. It’s easy to say in hindsight that the Twins erred in keeping Mauer, though that also makes the assumption that the club would have spent that extra $23MM per season on more canny roster upgrades….or that the Twins would have even stretched their payroll to that extent whatsoever.
Ten years later, the Mauer extension is perhaps best seen as a defensible investment that didn’t quite pan out. Given the perfect storm of age, production, and added hometown value that went into the contract, it may yet be a while before another catcher tops it, with Realmuto’s potential new deal with Philadelphia standing as the closest challenger in years.
2019-20 Offseason In Review Series
MLBTR has begun its annual Offseason In Review series, looking at what all 30 teams did (or didn’t do) this winter. We’ll have an entry for every team published within the coming days and weeks, so keep this post bookmarked to check on when your favorite team has been covered.
AL West
- Houston Astros
- Los Angeles Angels
- Oakland Athletics
- Seattle Mariners
- Texas Rangers
AL Central
- Chicago White Sox
- Cleveland Indians
- Detroit Tigers
- Kansas City Royals
- Minnesota Twins
AL East
- Baltimore Orioles
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays
NL West
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Diego Padres
- San Francisco Giants
NL Central
- Chicago Cubs
- Cincinnati Reds
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- St. Louis Cardinals
NL East
- Atlanta Braves
- Miami Marlins
- New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Washington Nationals
Astros Release Jared Hughes
The Astros announced that right-hander Jared Hughes has been released. Hughes requested the move, as per the opt-out terms in his minor league deal with the team.
Hughes joined the Astros last month, on a minors deal that would have paid him $1.5MM if he had made the big league roster. Hughes’ opt-out date was yesterday, and he chose to look for opportunities elsewhere since Houston didn’t put him on their 40-man roster. Hughes posted only a 6.35 ERA over 5 2/3 spring innings, which could have impacted the team’s decision (though The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan expressed surprise at Houston’s decision).
The small Spring Training sample size aside, Hughes has posted very solid numbers over nine MLB seasons and 519 career relief innings. The 34-year-old has a career 2.88 ERA despite not missing many bats (6.07 K/9) thanks to an outstanding ability to generate grounder, with a 61.5% career groundball rate. It’s a skillset that has left Hughes perhaps a bit undervalued, as he has been non-tendered, released, and claimed on waivers within the last three years, and his firmest bit of security was a two-year, $4.5MM free agent deal with the Reds in the 2017-18 offseason.
2019 saw Hughes post a 4.04 ERA over 71 1/3 innings for the Reds and Phillies, easily the highest ERA of his eight full big league seasons. A big spike in his home run total (1.6 HR/9) was the most obvious reason for that 4.04 number, though Hughes also benefited from a .228 BABIP, which particularly aided such an extreme groundball pitcher.
Hughes now heads into perhaps the most uncertain open market in baseball history, as free agents face even more questions than the average affiliated player given the league shutdown. His track record should get him some attention from other teams, particularly defensively-adept squads that could best benefit from Hughes’ grounder-heavy arsenal.
Tyler Beede To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Giants right-hander Tyler Beede will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters this evening. Beede was diagnosed with a UCL sprain and a flexor strain two weeks ago, and was scheduled for a second opinion last week.
The 26-year-old now faces a recovery timeline of 12-15 months, which will keep him from participating in whatever becomes of the 2020 season and cost him likely at least a couple of months of the 2021 season. The delayed start to the 2020 season wasn’t a chief factor in Beede’s decision to undergo surgery, Zaidi told The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly and other media members, since Beede was told by doctors that he could face more elbow discomfort if he tried to rehab his injury without a proper procedure.
It’s a discouraging setback for Beede, a former 14th-overall pick (in 2014) who had yet to deliver on that potential over 124 2/3 innings, but was a strong contender to win a spot in San Francisco’s Opening Day rotation after throwing three scoreless innings during Spring Training action. It’s hard to figure how the rotation picture might look if and when the season gets underway, but as it stood when Spring Training was halted, Dereck Rodriguez, Trevor Oaks, Trevor Cahill, and Logan Webb were the top contenders for that fifth starter’s job.
The majority of Beede’s big league exposure came last season, when he posted a 5.08 ERA, 2.46 K/BB rate, and 8.7 K/9 over 117 innings. Like many pitchers in 2019, Beede struggled to limit home runs, allowing a 1.69 HR/9, but his larger issue was with hard contact in general. As per Statcast, Beede allowed hard-hit contract on 43.7% of his balls put into play, with an average 90.8mph exit velocity — both numbers landed in the bottom-fourth percentile of all pitchers.
Cardinals Option Four Players To Triple-A
The Cardinals optioned outfielders Austin Dean and Justin Williams, infielder Edmundo Sosa, and righty Jake Woodford to Triple-A, as per the club’s Twitter feed.
Dean has by far the most MLB experience of the group, appearing in 98 games with the Marlins over the past two seasons. St. Louis acquired Dean in January, though Dean faced a lot of competition for an Opening Day roster spot, given the amount of outfield depth in the Cards’ camp. Dean played mostly as a left fielder in Miami with a few appearances in right field and first base, and he hit .223/.268/.388 with 10 homers over 311 plate appearances.
Williams faced a similar situation as Dean did in facing an uphill battle to win an outfield job, though Williams’ left-handed bat makes him a solid call-up possibility during the season given that Cardinals’ other outfielders are mostly right-handed hitters. A second-round pick for the Diamondbacks in the 2013 draft, Williams was dealt to the Rays in 2014 and then came to St. Louis as part of the return in the Tommy Pham trade package at the July 2018 deadline. Shortly before that deal, Williams received his lone bit of MLB experience to date — a single plate appearance on July 21, 2018.
As noted by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Sosa is eligible to be sent down due to a fourth option year, as opposed to the usual three. After the Cardinals cut ties with Yairo Munoz, Sosa stood to benefit from that unusual situation, and he played well in Spring Training in his bid for a utility infield job. While at Triple-A, Sosa will be the “de facto backup” to Cardinals’ starting shortstop Paul DeJong on the big league roster, should DeJong suffer a longer-term injury. Sosa has had only a few more cups of coffee in the big leagues than Williams, as Sosa has appeared a total of 11 games for St. Louis over the last two seasons.
Chris Sale To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale will undergo Tommy John surgery, as per a team announcement. Sale will be out of action for roughly the next 12-15 months, as per the usual recovery timeline, and will miss all of the 2020 season.
The news less than three weeks after Sale was diagnosed with a flexor strain, following some elbow soreness in his throwing elbow. Sale only resumed throwing yesterday, though it’s fair to assume that he experienced further discomfort that resulted in today’s decision.
The Red Sox press release didn’t include any actual date for Sale’s surgery, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post speculated that it could perhaps be some time before Sale actually goes under the knife, given how elective medical procedures are increasingly being canceled (both in the United States and all around the world) in order to give hospitals and doctors more time to focus on the coronavirus pandemic. It’s also worth wondering if the uncertainty surrounding how much (or any) of the 2020 season will be played could have contributed to Sale’s decision, as he perhaps figured that missing time now was preferable to missing time when games were firmly on the schedule. Regardless, Sale will now miss whatever exists of the 2020 campaign and also likely at least two or three months of the 2021 season.
Due to his relatively thin stature and his unique throwing motion, durability questions dogged Sale as far back as his days as a vaunted prospect coming out of Florida Gulf Coast University, to the point that he dropped to the White Sox with the 13th pick of the 2010 draft. Sale proved those criticisms wrong after almost a full decade as one of the game’s best starters, with a career 3.03 ERA, 11.1 K/9, and the best career K/BB rate (5.37) in baseball history, while also averaging 205 innings per season between 2012-17.
The Red Sox acquired Sale in a December 2016 blockbuster trade that saw budding superstar Yoan Moncada go to Chicago, though the hefty price tag was worth it from Boston’s perspective, given Sale’s strong results for the club and his role in helping the Red Sox win the 2018 World Series. That said, Sale seemed to wear down at the end of the 2017 season and was bothered by shoulder problems late in the 2018 campaign, which led the Sox to limit his innings down the stretch and during their postseason run.
Those injury concerns didn’t stop Boston from signing Sale to a five-year, $145MM extension almost exactly one year ago. That deal covered the 2020-24 seasons, meaning the Red Sox won’t see any return on that investment for at least the next 15 months. Warning signs already began to crop up last season, as Sale got off to a slow start and only somewhat looked like himself (a career-high 4.40 ERA, though advanced metrics painted a much more favorable picture of his 2019 performance) over 147 1/3 innings before being shut down in mid-August due to elbow inflammation. Treatment for that inflammation included a platelet-rich plasma injection in Sale’s elbow, and he was seemingly making good progress in his offseason workouts before a bout of pneumonia set him back a couple of weeks.
Given that so much of Boston’s offseason revolved around getting under the luxury tax threshold, the Sale extension now looms as a seriously questionable decision. If Sale hadn’t been extended and his $25.6MM average annual value wasn’t on the team’s books, the Red Sox wouldn’t have faced nearly the (self-imposed) crunch to reset their tax bill after two years of overages. This could have meant the Sox may have explored other, lower-level methods of getting under the $208MM threshold rather than the extreme measure of trading Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers.
With Sale now out of the picture entirely for 2020, Eduardo Rodriguez is now the ace of the Red Sox rotation following the lefty’s big 2019 performance. E-Rod leaves a staff that is severely lacking in sure things, as Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, and Collin McHugh are all looking to rebound from either injury or inconsistency last season (McHugh could even still wind up in the bullpen). A long list of names were competing for the final two rotation jobs before Spring Training was halted, and manager Ron Roenicke hinted that the Sox would use an opener/bulk pitcher strategy for at least one of the two slots.
Indians Option Five Players To Triple-A
The Indians announced a batch of minor league options today, as left-handers Logan Allen and Scott Moss, first baseman Bobby Bradley, infielder Yu Chang, and outfielder Daniel Johnson were all optioned to Triple-A Columbus. Johnson and Moss are the only members of the quintet who have yet to reach the big leagues.
Allen is perhaps the headline name of the group, ranked in top-100 prospect listings prior to last season when he was still throwing in the Padres’ farm system. The 22-year-old southpaw was one of the key pieces of the trade package Cleveland acquired from San Diego as part of the three-team deal last summer that also brought Franmil Reyes to the Tribe and sent Trevor Bauer to the Reds (Moss also came to Cleveland in that trade, from Cincinnati).
Allen got his first taste of MLB action in 2019, posting a 6.18 ERA over 27 2/3 combined innings with the Padres and Indians. Small sample size notwithstanding, it was something of a rough year all around for Allen, as he also posted a 5.85 ERA over 80 Triple-A innings last season. Those minor league stats, of course, come with the caveat that Triple-A pitching numbers were inflated across the board in 2019, due in large part to the adoption of the livelier Major League baseball.
There was some speculation that Allen could have begun the 2020 season in the Tribe’s rotation, as Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco were both facing injured list stints for at least the opening couple of weeks. With the schedule now pushed back indefinitely, however, it seems likely that Clevinger and Carrasco will be healthy by the time the 2020 season gets underway, so Allen is now ticketed for Columbus.
Johnson was also seen as a speculative candidate to make the team, given the uncertain nature of Cleveland’s outfield. Johnson hit decently well (.267/.353/.400 over 17 PA) during Spring Training but be sent back to Triple-A for more regular playing time. Acquired from the Nationals as part of the Yan Gomes trade in November 2018, Johnson hit .290/.361/.507 with 19 homers over 547 combined PA at the Double-A and Triple-A levels last season.
